Groups Of Voters Research Articles

Measuring the Strength of Presidential Campaign Funding, Political Party Advertising Shopping 2024

The General Election Commission has released a report on the campaign funds of the presidential and vice-presidential candidates for the 2024 election. Prabowo Subianto - Gibran Rakabuming Raka was recorded as the largest, far surpassing Ganjar Pranowo - Mahfud MD and Anies Baswedan - Muhaimin Iskandar.The advertisements were created to get the audience to increase the party's popularity. Golkar is the political party with the highest advertising spending on social media over the last three months, disbursing funds amounting to IDR 3.74 billion. This figure is quite far apart when compared to the advertising costs of other political parties. I am following in second place with a nominal advertising expenditure of IDR 785.6 million. National Awakening Party and Gerindra with advertising costs on social media amounting to IDR 195.7 million and IDR 49.18 million respectively. PSI is in first place with the most advertisements, namely 1,277 advertisements on television amounting to IDR 42.84 billion, Perindo is in second place for the party with the most advertisements on TV, IDR. 82.73 billion and 1,220 advertisements. The electability of the political parties PDIP and Gerindra compete closely in the female voter group, these two parties were both chosen by 18.8% of female voter respondents. Gerindra's electability reached 19.5%, slightly ahead of PDIP which obtained 19.3%. In the election of 5 major political parties, namely Gerindra, PDIP, Golkar, PKB and PKS, Gerindra was the party most chosen by young people under 30 years of age, with a vote share of 24.6%.

The Price of Justified Representation

In multiwinner approval voting, the goal is to select a k -member committee based on voters’ approval ballots. A well-studied concept of proportionality in this context is the justified representation (JR) axiom, which demands that no large cohesive group of voters remains unrepresented. However, the JR axiom may conflict with other desiderata, such as social welfare (the number of approvals obtained by committee members) or coverage (the number of voters who approve at least one committee member). In this article, we investigate the price of imposing the JR axiom (as well as the more demanding extended justified representation (EJR) axiom) on social welfare and coverage. Our approach is twofold: we derive worst-case bounds on the loss of welfare/coverage caused by imposing JR, and study the computational complexity of finding committees with high welfare that provide JR (obtaining hardness results, approximation algorithms, and an exact algorithm for one-dimensional preferences).

Electoral incentives to target investment in roads: Evidence from Italian municipalities

Using a comprehensive dataset on Italian municipalities, we test whether investments in road services are affected by political manipulations motivated by the need of targeting a specific group of voters (construction firms). We show that road services investment in the year before election is 26% higher in municipalities with low density of construction firms and 40% higher in municipalities with high density of construction firms than in the electoral year. This result is confirmed by the fact that in the pre-electoral year the probability that public procurement on road services is assigned to a local firm increases by 52 percentage points with respect to the electoral year, for municipalities with high density of construction firms. Finally, we do not detect any relationship between investments in road services and the local road safety. These findings suggest that politicians manipulate investments in road services for re-electoral purposes.

Who is Mobilized to Vote by Short Text Messages? Evidence from a Nationwide Field Experiment with Young Voters

AbstractUsing a large randomized controlled trial and rich individual-level data on eligible voters and their household members, we evaluate how get-out-the-vote (GOTV) appeals affect inequalities in voting, transmit from treated to untreated individuals within households, and how the transmission of voting decisions through family networks influences inequalities in voting. We find that receiving a text message reminder before the Finnish county elections in 2022 mobilized mainly low-propensity voters. As a result, the GOTV intervention reduced existing social inequalities in voting within the target group of young voters. We remarkably find that over 100% of the direct treatment effect spilled over to untreated household members. These spillovers reduced inequality in political participation among the older voters who were not part of the target group. Overall, our results exemplify how randomized controlled trials with a limited focus on the analysis of individuals in the treatment and control groups alone may lead to misestimating the compositional effects of get-out-the-vote interventions.

A Consistent Picture? Issue‐Based Campaigning on Facebook During the 2021 German Federal Election Campaign

In times of declining party identification, political parties need to persuade and mobilize their voters from election to election. Setting topics in such a way that voters are convinced to cast their vote has become an essential prerequisite for success in modern election campaigns. Social media are suitable for this, as parties can set their own topics or highlight the topics most important to the voters and communicate them to a large audience in organic posts or target specific voter groups with ads. While tendencies of issue ownership in posts on Facebook are repeatedly shown empirically, there is a lack of studies investigating which strategies parties follow in their investment decisions on Facebook ads. Based on theoretical expectations derived from the literature about digital political marketing and issue prioritization in election campaigns, this article investigates whether parties communicated consistently on Facebook with regard to the issues they set in organic posts, sponsored posts, and ads during the 2021 German federal election campaign. The results of a manual quantitative content analysis (n = 1,029 posts, n = 1,197 sponsored posts, n = 2,643 ads) show that parties focused on issue ownership in their posts. Still, their investments in sponsored posts and ads followed different strategies. Here, most parties highlighted social policy, contradicting issue ownership for some parties. The article provides novel insights into digital campaigning and discusses the extent to which parties can engage audiences beyond their organic reach within party-affiliated audiences.

Using Fuzzy Ranking Technique to Find the Best Traits and Peak Age Group of Electors in an Election

Objective: To predict the peak-age of age group of voters who turn the table of election results and also to rank the attribute which people look from their candidates. Methods: Improved CETD matrix has been used in the sample size of nearly 150 through unsupervised method. Findings: This study provides: 1. Ordering or ranking of age groups; 2. Identifying the best attribute for the leaders to possess to win the election. Novelty: To get accurate result, the researchers have structured the normalization through max-max (min-min) for improved CETD and rank identification through TOPSIS method. This method enhances the normality of interval measure to lie between [0, 1]. Keywords: ATD, RTD, CETD, Attributes, ∝ cut, TOPSIS

Voting according to one’s political stances is difficult: Problems definition, computational hardness, and approximate solutions

This paper studies the computational complexity of two voting problems where the goal is deciding how a given voter should vote to favour their personal stances. In the first problem, given (a) the voter stance towards each law that will be voted by the parliament and (b) the political stance of each party towards each law (all party members are assumed to vote according to it), the goal is finding the parliamentary seats distribution maximizing the number of laws that will be approved/rejected as desired by the voter. In the second problem no parliament is involved, but a single issue with several possible answers is voted by citizens in a presidential election with several candidates. The problem consists in deciding how a group of voters, split in different electoral districts, all of them supporting the same candidate, should vote to make their candidate president. It is assumed that (a) all delegates of each electoral district are assigned to the candidate winning in the district, (b) after the election day, candidates may ask their assigned delegates to support other candidates receiving more votes than them, and these post-electoral supporting stances are known in advance by the electorate, and (c) the group of voters that is coordinated knows the votes that will be cast by the rest of the electorate. For each problem, its NP-hardness as well as its inapproximability are proved. This implies that something as essential as exercising the democratic right to vote, in such a way that the voting choice will be the best for the voter’s political stances, is at least NP-hard. It is also shown how genetic algorithms can be used to obtain reasonable solutions in practice despite the limitations of theoretical approximation hardness.

The Impact of The Parliamentary Threshold Policy On Small Parties: The Failure of The Partai Persatuan Pembangunan To Meet The Parliamentary Threshold In The 2024 Election

The implementation of the parliamentary threshold policy poses significant challenges for small parties or new parties to gain representation in the legislature. This case study examines the impact of the parliamentary threshold policy on small parties, focusing on the failure of the Partai Persatuan Pembangunan (PPP) to meet the parliamentary threshold in the 2024 elections. The research highlights that small parties face difficulties in reaching the threshold, which results in their failure to gain seats in parliament. This situation affects political pluralism by limiting the diversity of political views represented in the legislature, potentially reducing inclusive and fair representation for different groups of voters. Furthermore, it underscores the importance of a mature political system in addressing the challenges of democracy, accommodating diverse political views, including from small parties, to ensure fair and inclusive representation for all citizens. In this research, the method used is normative qualitative, which describes information obtained from legal standards, theories, and legal principles and rules related to the core of the problem by collecting data through interviews. Parliamentary thresholds in fact put pressure on small parties to remain in parliament as the threshold numbers get higher. Thresholds that aim to simplify parties turn out to be a barrier to the represented and the represented, as well as political dissatisfaction and undermine the legitimacy of the political system.

Is unequal representation the consequence of different voting behavior across income groups?

Extant literature documents the unequal representation of the interests of low- and high-income groups in democracies. One potential explanation for this phenomenon is the electoral behavior of different groups of voters. If affluent citizens base their vote decisions more strongly on policy considerations, while the less affluent rely on forms of electoral support that are less strongly conditioned by policy or performance evaluations, this pattern could influence the ability and willingness of political elites to represent low-income citizens. We make use of the integrated CSES election data to study how, across a diverse set of countries, income levels affect the criteria voters rely on when voting: namely, proximity voting, valence considerations, and economic voting. Overall, our findings show no meaningful differences in voting criteria across income groups, nor consequences for party systems. These findings have important implications for the literature on unequal representation, as they rule out the common narrative that the affluent cast more sophisticated vote decisions.

Revealed preferences on meat substitute consumption and political attitudes - Testing the left-right and environmental concerns framework

The promotion of meat substitutes to reduce meat intake is a promising way to reduce the environmental and public health externalities of meat consumption while preserving the important role of taste and texture in meat products. However, the market for meat substitutes is developing more slowly than expected. Therefore, we analyze the factors associated with the heterogeneity in meat substitute consumption in Germany, a country where meat traditionally plays an important role. We use revealed preference data on meat substitute sales from 1025 individual retailers, sociodemographic data, and election results from 92 regions in Germany over the period 2017–2021, to analyze whether differences in meat substitute consumption are associated with consumers' political orientation (liberal/left or conservative/right) and socio-demographic variables. We also investigate whether election results for parties with stronger climate protection goals are associated with meat substitute consumption. Our results show that meat substitute consumption varies significantly across Germany and that this is related to differences in socio-demographic characteristics and voting behavior across regions. Voting for the Green Party and parties with strong climate protection ambitions is positively related to the market share of meat substitutes. In contrast, voting for Germany's most conservative party, which has the lowest ambitions in terms of climate protection targets, is associated with lower meat substitute consumption. Therefore, manufacturers could develop tailored marketing strategies that specifically target these voter groups in order to increase the market share of meat substitutes as alternatives to meat products.

PENGUATAN LITERASI POLITIK DAN LITERASI MEDIA BAGI GENERASI CERDAS MENUJU PEMILU 2024

The 2024 general election is a political democracy through the electoral system. This involves young people who are the largest group of voters. However, the findings in the field are that the younger generation lacks political literacy and media literacy. So there needs to be a socialisation of strengthening political literacy and media literacy for the younger generation. In order to increase the ability and knowledge of the younger generation related to political literacy and media literacy. The activity was aimed at 25 partners. The implementation of the event went well and was classified as on target, on time, and on purpose. As well as showing results according to the target indicators of the success of programme achievements. The results of monitoring and evaluation on the results of the questionnaire show that all partners have strongly agreed on this socialisation event and can be held further events. The interview results showed that partners experienced changes and increased understanding and actions on partners related to political literacy and media literacy. In particular, partners are able and skilled in searching, selecting and disseminating political information appropriately and using social media more wisely and can help the public regarding public information.

Relaxed notions of Condorcet-consistency and efficiency for strategyproof social decision schemes

Social decision schemes (SDSs) map the preferences of a group of voters over some set of m alternatives to a probability distribution over the alternatives. A seminal characterization of strategyproof SDSs by Gibbard (Econometrica 45(3):665–681, 1977) implies that there are no strategyproof Condorcet extensions and that only random dictatorships satisfy ex post efficiency and strategyproofness. The latter is known as the random dictatorship theorem. We relax Condorcet-consistency and ex post efficiency by introducing a lower bound on the probability of Condorcet winners and an upper bound on the probability of Pareto-dominated alternatives, respectively. We then show that the randomized Copeland rule is the only anonymous, neutral, and strategyproof SDS that guarantees the Condorcet winner a probability of at least 2/m. Secondly, we prove a continuous strengthening of Gibbard’s random dictatorship theorem: the less probability we put on Pareto-dominated alternatives, the closer to a random dictatorship is the resulting SDS. Finally, we show that the only anonymous, neutral, and strategyproof SDSs that maximize the probability of Condorcet winners while minimizing the probability of Pareto-dominated alternatives are mixtures of the uniform random dictatorship and the randomized Copeland rule.

Penyuluhan Hukum sebagai Upaya Membentuk Kecerdasan Pemilih Pemula pada Pemilu 2024

General elections (elections) have an important meaning in the implementation of democracy. Elections are a means of implementing people's sovereignty. Therefore, it is hoped that the election will be democratic and participated in by all members of the community who have met the requirements. One group of people who need serious attention is the group of first-time voters. Beginner voters as participants who have never participated in an election before are expected to participate in the 2024 election intelligently. This means that beginner voters are expected to understand election rules, get to know election participants, know about voting mechanisms, and matters related to hoaxes and money politics. Good understanding and adequate knowledge can make beginner voters to participate in elections well, avoid election violations, and can choose candidates based on good criteria. This situation and condition are also experienced by students at Wonda Restoration Vocational School. There are 82 Restoration Vocational School students in the category of beginner voters who need to broaden their horizons and knowledge about elections. Various election regulations and their changes need to be studied and explored through legal education activities. Through socialization about election law, it is hoped that students can become intelligent voters during the elections at 2024.

Alternative FÜR Deutschland’s Electoral Success: A Birth of a New Class in Germany?

The issue of class division has been growing in importance as a common problem in modern society. This paper first synthesizes the results of existing research on the voter groups of the extreme right-wing political parties represented by the Alternative for Germany (AfD), and then, based on the existing theories of class division and the theory of "risk society", proposes a new explanatory framework for the traditional theory that the criterion of class division in the highly globalized developed countries has been gradually changed from wealth to risk, that is, the "risk class". The concept of "risk class" is then used to explain the results of previous studies. Finally, this study argues that the emergence of this "risk class" is a manifestation of Germany's democratic deficit, which indicates that Germany's democracy has not effectively reduced the inequality of social risks in recent years. The rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is a significant signal of this.

Microtargeting, voters’ unawareness, and democracy

Abstract Recent technological developments have raised concerns about threats to democracy because of their potential to distort election outcomes: (a) data-driven voter research enabling political microtargeting and (b) growing news consumption via social media and news aggregators that obfuscate the origin of news items, leading to voters’ unawareness about a news sender’s identity. We provide a theoretical framework in which we can analyze the effects that microtargeting by political interest groups and unawareness have on election outcomes in comparison to “conventional” news reporting. We show which voter groups suffer from which technological development (a) or (b). While both microtargeting and unawareness have negative effects on voter welfare, we show that only unawareness can flip an election. Our model framework allows the theory-based discussion of policy proposals, such as to ban microtargeting or to require news platforms to signal the political orientation of a news item’s originator (JEL C72, D72, D82, D83).

National or partisan representation: do politicians’ perceptions of the opinions of these voter groups depend on party characteristics?

National or partisan representation: do politicians’ perceptions of the opinions of these voter groups depend on party characteristics?

Role of Personas in Political Marketing in Canada

Many political party strategists draw on Big Data to target specific groups of voters. This predominantly quantitative approach is useful for mobilising support, yet there are alternatives that help bring these voter segments to life. Pioneered in Australia (1996) and perfected in Canada (2006 to 2008), the use of personas in political marketing and communications holds several notable advantages. By personifying the segments – using names like “Phil and Jenny” or “Dougie” – strategists foster both internal cohesion and external consistency around their messaging. The technique is also useful for policy development. Grounded in an extensive review of campaigns and in-depth interviews, this article analyses the use of personas by the Conservative Party of Canada, pointing to the strengths and shortcomings of the approach.

Impact of prolonged social crisis on resilience and coping indicators.

The current study examines, longitudinally, (i.e., on the same sample), to what extent an acute political/social crisis in Israel affected the resilience, distress, and additional psychological indicators of the Jewish population, along with three repeated measurements: The first was conducted shortly before the last elections (in October 2022), the second in February 2023, about two and a half months after the elections, following the formation of a right-wing government, and the third measurement about nine months after the election (August 7-10, 2023). The main results indicated the following: (a) the mean societal resilience among coalition voters increased significantly throughout the three measurements, while it declined significantly among opposition voters. (b) significant differences were identified between coalition and opposition voters, mostly at T2 and T3: opposition supporters reported significantly lower levels of societal resilience and hope, and higher levels of distress symptoms and sense of danger, compared to those of coalition supporters. We concluded that the continued social/political conflict in Israel is multidimensional and impacts diverse areas such as values, perspectives, and supporting as well as suppressing coping indicators. The differences between the two voter groups may be primarily the result of political radicalization and polarization processes, that aim to widen gaps to achieve political power. As many countries are currently facing acute political crises and similar radicalization, similar studies should be conducted in varied societies to investigate the generalizability of the findings.

Advanced E-Voting System

Advancements in technology have led to the evolution of voting systems, paving the way for sophisticated e-voting solutions. This abstract delves into the design and critical components of an advanced e-voting system. The proposed system integrates cutting-edge security measures, utilizing encryption, blockchain technology, and robust authentication protocols to ensure the integrity and confidentiality of votes cast. Accessibility remains a paramount consideration, with provisions made for inclusivity through user-friendly interfaces and support for diverse voter groups, including those with disabilities. Scalability and reliability underpin the system's architecture, ensuring seamless operation during high-demand scenarios without compromising performance. Privacy preservation is addressed through cryptographic techniques that dissociate voter identity from ballots

SIKAP MASYARAKAT TERHADAP POLITIK UANG PADA PEMILIHAN KEPALA DAEARAH SERENTAK TAHUN 2024 KABUPATEN MUNA BARAT

This research purpose is to find out the people’s attitudes about money politics in the simultaneous regional head elections of 2024, especially in the villages of Barangka, Lapolea, and Sawerigadi in the Barangka District of the West Muna Regency. This research uses the theory of money politics to find out people’s attitudes in the selection of regional head candidates, whether by carrying out various forms of money politics such as; buying votes, giving personal goods, services and events, giving group goods, and pork barrel projects. It’s interesting to know this because, in the Barangka district, voters typically abstain from casting ballots, if they receive no benefits. The data collection technique is used by distributing questionnaires, literature reviews, and documentation with data analysis techniques which consist of three stages, they are; data reduction, data presentation, and conclusion. The research results found that a significant amount of people were received money or other goods from candidates competing in the legislative and regional head elections in the 2024 elections. About thirty percent (30%) of the people in the Barangka District receive money or gifts given by the candidates. This percentage is very high considering that the people in Barangka District are traditional voters who have not been much influenced by technological and information advances. Money politics typically focuses on voter groups in the 25-30 age range and acts as a success team to distribute money from candidates to the public.