Commodity Groups Research Articles

Russian-Croatian trade relations in current environment of sanctions

Aim. To assess the impact of Western European sanctions on Russian-Croatian trade relations in 2020-2023 and Croatian tourism sector.Objectives. To analyze the dynamics of key indicators of trade between the Russian Federation (RF) and Croatia under sanctions; to identify the main commodity groups in the structure of their trade; to determine the importance of Russia for the tourism sector of the Republic of Croatia.Methods. The author used such research methods as statistical analysis, generalization, description and graphical modeling.Results. The results obtained in the process of the analysis indicate a sharp decline in the volume of mutual trade of the Russian Federation with Croatia in the conditions of numerous trade restrictions from the European Union. In 2023, the commodity structure of Russian exports to the Republic of Croatia has changed significantly, the basis of Russian exports is now made up of finished goods and goods of the chemical industry. The flow of tourists from Russia occupies an insignificant share in the total tourist flow of Croatia and has little impact on the tourism sector of the Republic. Under the conditions of the sanctions regime, Croatian companies have begun to cease economic activities in the territory of the Russian Federation.Conclusions. The current situation on the world stage has determined the dynamism of mutual trade interaction between Russia and Croatia. Thus, the sanctions imposed by the countries of the collective West have a negative impact on Russian-Croatian relations both in trade and tourism. The tendencies of reduction of mutual trade and tourist flows have a long-term character and negative dynamics of interaction between the two countries. Normalization of trade relations between Russia and Croatia in the geopolitical situation today seems unlikely.

Global air freight flow data for aviation policy modelling

Models of air freight are often constrained by a lack of available data. This study brings together different sources of air freight supply and demand data to address this gap. To study air freight operations, we combine schedules, flight tracking data and country-level databases of passenger and freight movements to produce estimates of global flight segment-level capacity and load factors in freighter aircraft and passenger holds for 2019–2021. To study true origin-ultimate destination air freight demand, a freight mode choice model by commodity group is developed for 2019 to fill gaps in mode information in international and national trade datasets, and estimates are made for 2019 and 2021. Initial comparisons of supply and demand data demonstrate that air freight journeys differ significantly from passenger journeys, typically including more flight legs (roughly, around 2, compared to 1.2 for passengers) and greater leg distances (2.2–2.5 times average passenger distance), with significant asymmetry in commodity flows and operations to and from individual countries and regions. These differences persist in 2021, despite COVID-19 induced shifts towards carrying more air freight in freighter aircraft. This research forms a first step towards making available an integrated database of estimated global air freight flows by commodity.

Levels of chlorpyrifos, ethion, lambda-cyhalothrin, pendimethlin and triazophos pesticide residues in vegetables

Keeping in view the adverse effects of pesticides, due to their excessive uses in crops and storages, a representative study was conducted to evaluate the presence of pesticide residues in vegetables for most frequently used pesticides in the state of Haryana in India. In all, a variety of vegetables were collected as samples from farmers as well as markets located in twenty one districts of Haryana, India for the period of eight years. The extraction of pesticides from vegetable samples was done using QuEChERS method and analysis for commonly used pesticides was done using Gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GCMS). The analysis of samples showed that approximately one-third of samples were found with detectable presence of pesticide residues. More importantly, the presence of some banned or withdrawn pesticides such as DDT isomers, endosulphan. Furthermore, approximately 40 % of the analyzed samples contained pesticide residues at or below maximum residue level (MRLs) and 16 % of analyzed samples contained pesticide residues above MRLs in terms of commodity groups. Furthermore, residues of Chlorpyrifos were found most often exceeding the Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI). Ethion, lambda-cyhalothrin, pendimethlin and triazophos were other pesticides with detected value higher than specified MRL values. Pesticides occurrence in large number of samples need to be "alarming and forcing matter to take appropriate action" to the cause of public health. This study may provide new directions for the application, management and control of pesticides used by farmers.

Asymmetry and Imbalance in Trade between East and West in the 1980s

An analysis of the development of East-West trade in the 1980s and earlier allows us to draw a conclusion about the imbalance in the importance of mutual economic relations at that time. This imbalance was multi-faceted and manifested itself in, e.g., imbalance in the structure of trade in goods, payment asymmetry, as well as various motives of OECD and Comecon countries when making decisions on mutual exchange. The imbalance in the commodity structure of the East-West mutual trade reflected the fact that complementary goods were exchanged instead of, as was the case in countries characterized by a modern exchange structure, substitute products. The complementary nature of East-West trade meant that the exports of the socialist countries to the markets of the Western countries encompassed, to a large extent, different commodity groups than the imports of the Comecon countries from this area. While exports from socialist countries consisted mainly of goods with a relatively low degree of processing, the exports of capitalist countries to their Eastern partners encompassed mainly finished products with a significant degree of processing and the involvement of modern technological thought.

An approach to risk categorization of Products of Animal Origin imported into the United Kingdom

There are thousands of potential hazards associated with imported foods and to achieve an excellent food safety record, resources need to be focused on higher-risk foods and preventive mechanisms.We were tasked to develop an automated tool to assess public health risks from imported foods across multiple countries of origin, hazards and product types to replace manually conducted single product-hazard qualitative import assessments.In this paper we describe the generic import assessment of risk to consumers from importing foodborne microbiological hazards into the UK, to identify those higher-risk foods. A risk categorization approach was developed as recommended by international standards laid out in the CODEX principles and guidance by FAO and WHO on food control. The approach combines an assessment of the inherent risk of the commodity (product characteristics), and any hazard mitigation or control measures undertaken in the producing country (control characteristics) and incorporates real-world global data relating to food safety incidents over a three-year time window (compliance) for that product.With the broad diversity of foods imported, food stuffs are grouped into commodity groups using the codes in the international Harmonised System of classification. The mapping of trade into commodity groups and the scoring system developed to estimate risk are presented.Results by exporting country were generated for 16 selected public health hazards identified from global food safety incident data using expert elicitation.To ensure the approach is dynamic, can keep pace with global trends, and uses resources efficiently, the assessment has been automated and predominantly uses data that is global, publicly available and routinely updated.The results support risk managers in their regular reassessment of the controls that should be placed on foodstuffs imported into the UK.

Dynamic spillover effects and interconnectedness of DeFi assets, commodities, and Islamic stock markets during crises

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) assets, commodities, and Islamic stock market cointegration are affected by technological innovations, market dynamics, investor behavior, and crises. This study investigates the dynamics of returns and volatility for three DeFi assets, six commodities, and three Islamic stock markets from December 2019, to March, 2023, and identifies higher spillover effects during crises. Links among the Cross-DeFi, commodity, and Islamic markets significantly influence returns and volatility during crises. Notably, the commodities index emerged as a pivotal and substantial transmitter of risk during the Russian-Ukraine war crisis, with Emerging Markets (EM) being a key recipient. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, livestock indices assume the role of prominent risk-return spillover receivers. The findings indicate robust returns and volatility interconnected between DeFi assets and Islamic markets with a moderate level of connectivity among commodity groups. WDI, ACWI, and EM explained 75 % of the variance observed during crisis episodes. This study formulates strategic portfolio management within and between connectedness among return volatilities by highlighting the stability of DeFi assets, the diversification potential in commodities, and a balanced option in Islamic markets. Our study provides a deep and insightful understanding of the stakeholders across markets during crises.

Demand study of freight transportation via railway of four commodity groups: A case study on Costa Rica's Pacific Coast Route

Having railway mobility as an option among transportation modes is of prime importance for the freight logistics of a country and the overall performance of its commerce sector. This work presents a case study in Costa Rica, where freight transportation via railway was formerly available during the last century but has not been in full service since 1995. Specifically, this paper assesses the link connecting the capital city of San Jose to the port of Caldera on the Pacific Ocean coast, henceforth referred to as the “Pacific Coast Route”. Although government institutions and industries alike have stressed the importance of its reactivation in recent years, few efforts have been made to specifically study this route with a level of detail that enables them to understand the composition of freight markets.This study presents a novel demand estimation differentiated by four types of commodities developed to calculate the potential amount of goods that could flow through this corridor, measured in monetary terms and as volumes. Trends in the expected share were analyzed to identify variables that may improve the attractiveness of the railway service and the participation of clients along the route from the country's main economic activities which includes the following: agriculture & livestock, manufacturing, minerals, and forestry.The four-step transportation model was chosen for its suitability towards this case study; where available data sets were limited, the information was aggregated into yearly values, and the network was defined with few transportation zones. Activity-based models were not feasible in this case due to the lack of information on complete routes and volume flows. The model evaluated a first scenario given the present design of the route and a second scenario involving improvements in the alignment and the addition of a new segment.Regarding the opportunities of moving goods according to their type, in terms of volume, minerals (48 %) and agricultural (31 %) have the largest shares of participation in this region, followed by manufacturing (20 %) and forestry products (1 %). However, the manufacturing sector stands out in financial terms, accounting for 71 % of the total value of goods mobilized in the study area.It was found that the demand is most sensible for changes in the service fare, while the benefits of shorter travel times and a larger attraction area in scenario 2 were not significant. A service fee of $USD 2.35/ton in average is recommended to reach a 30 % modal shift towards the railway (following the European Commission's goals to reduce CO2 emissions from freight transportation in 2030).Finally, recommendations for public policies are provided to the entities in the country in the sectors of Agriculture, Health, Energy and Environment, Transportation, and Public Services. The suggestions aim to develop the new railway project with a holistic perspective, considering the inclusion of less profitable economic activities of the surrounding communities that require connectivity, compliance with environmental commitments, and design for resilience while aiming for a financially feasible business model.

Co‐Jump Dependency and Transmission Across US Commodity Futures: A Network Analysis

ABSTRACTThis paper examines the co‐jump transmission in 20 commodity futures returns in the United States using co‐jump network models. Specifically, it reveals co‐jumping behavior in both static and time‐varying settings, considering the overall commodity markets and various commodity groups separately, which helps us understand the dynamic changes in co‐jump dependencies at the overall and sector levels. The main results reveal that co‐jump heterogeneity exists among commodities but is generally more apparent within each commodity group, and co‐jumps vary over time. Gold exerts the strongest influence, with many commodity futures being influenced by the jumps behavior in gold returns. During the COVID‐19 outbreak and the Russia–Ukraine war, the energy group ranks highest in terms of co‐jump network centrality. Our empirical analysis highlights the portfolio performance and risk reduction, and an additional examination shows that centrality information from the co‐jump network contains a highly and statistically forecasting power for US stock market volatility.

Foreign Trade as a Channel of Pandemic Transmission to the Agricultural Sector in Poland

The resilience of economic and social systems to shocks is one of the fundamental goals of sustainable development. One such event that seriously disrupted the global economy was the COVID-19 pandemic. It posed a direct threat to people’s health and lives and also caused an economic crisis. One of the effects of the crisis was the loss of stability in agricultural production with the resulting threat to food security. The foreign trade channel played a vital role in the mechanism of pandemic transmission to the agricultural sector in the world and Poland. This article aims to assess the significance of changes in international trade in agri-food commodities conducted by Polish entities during the COVID-19 pandemic. The research period covers the years 2017–2021, focusing on the years 2020–2021, the period of the COVID-19 pandemic. Such a research period allows comparative analyses during the pandemic and pre-pandemic periods. The following research methods are used in this study: a critical analysis of the literature, the descriptive approach, the comparative method, and verbal logic and descriptive statistical methods. The data used in this article come from the Central Statistical Office (CSO) and cover Poland’s foreign trade turnover according to the International Standard Trade Classification (SITC) used by the United Nations Statistics Department. The COVID-19 pandemic period did not cause a drastic collapse in Polish foreign trade. Short-lived blockages in the flow of goods, which appeared in Q2 2020, resulted in a 14% drop in the value of Polish exports. Already in Q3 2020, foreign trade turnover returned to pre-pandemic levels. In Q2 2020, the value of the exports of agri-food goods decreased by only 3%. For other commodity groups, the export values were 7–40% lower. Agri-food trade proved more resilient to pandemic shocks than trade in non-agricultural sectors. The foreign trade crisis affected the imports of goods more than exports.

PRODUCTS MAPPING: THE CASE OF ARMENIA

From the point of view of the export promotion strategy, it is crucial to choose industries in which a given country has comparative advantages and the development of which can lead to export-led economic growth. In this article, the indices of Revealed Symmetrical Comparative Advantage (RSCA), Normalized Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (NRCA), and the Trade Balance (TBI) were calculated based on the export data of about 100 commodity groups (chapters at 2-digit level) of Harmonized System (HS) to carry out the Products Mapping for the period 2018-2022. The market concentration index of exports and the product concentration index of exports were also calculated as well. The results show that Armenia had comparative advantages in producing some product groups, and in some, government support is required to increase the competitiveness thereof. We conclude that the majority of products that Armenia has a comparative advantage in producing thereof were mostly exported to Russia. We believe that it is necessary to diversify merchandise exports since the concentration index of export markets in 2022 was 0.427 (normalized Herfindahl-Hirschman index), and exports of products should be channeled more to middle- and upper-middle-income countries. This, in turn, would contribute to the transformation of the structure of the Armenian economy.

Genotyping of infectious bronchitis virus in Canada.

From 2014-2023, infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) was detected in 6,589 samples from Canada, and partial nucleotide (nt) sequences of the IBV spike protein (S) gene were determined for 1,678 samples. Based on their S gene nt sequence identities and origin, Canadian IBVs could be classified into 4 groups: 1) 50.3% were variant viruses related to strains described in the United States; 2) 45.6% were vaccine-like viruses; 3) 2.1% were Eurasian viruses; 4) 2.0% were Canadian variants. Outbreaks with IBVs related to strains CAL1734/04, 4/91, and DMV/1639/11 were often associated with more severe disease in all chicken commodity groups. With the emergence of numerous IBV strains, the severity of infection and number of affected flocks increased. Outbreaks with various IBV strains overlapped in their emergence, peaked, and regressed, but the introduction of DMV/1639/11 has resulted in a continuous field challenge since its first detection in 2015.

Mechanism of customs regulation of the import of pharmaceutical products

One of the main features of the Russian pharmaceutical market is that imported pharmaceutical products significantly predominate in its structure according to the criterion of origin. The high share of imports of medicines is due to the need to provide the population with high-quality medicines, including vital medicines, analogues of which are not produced in the Russian Federation. In this regard, consideration of issues related to the customs regulation of imports of pharmaceutical products is particularly relevant. The mechanism of state management of the foreign trade sphere covers a variety of instruments that have a direct or indirect impact on current economic processes, the main of which is customs regulation. The priority area of the customs mechanism is the formation of a favorable economic environment for national production. The customs authorities of Russia are directly involved in regulating the import of pharmaceutical products in order to ensure the economic security of Russia, monitoring compliance with relevant prohibitions and restrictions by participants in foreign economic activity. In the course of the conducted research, it was found that the mechanism of customs regulation of the import of pharmaceutical products is crucial in the formation of foreign trade turnover of goods of the studied commodity group.

Threshold inflation and relative price variability – a proposal for inflation targeting in Lebanon

PurposeThe study investigates the impact of inflation on the variability of relative prices in the context of Lebanon.Design/methodology/approachUnlike the traditional method, which relies on the variance of cross-sectional price changes measured at specific points in time to gauge the variability in relative prices, we employ a more appropriate approach. Under this approach, we capture the dispersion in relative prices by estimating how widely (or closely) a set of commodity prices drift apart over a span of time, offering a more comprehensive assessment. Firstly, we employ Johansen’s cointegration test on rolling subsamples to determine the number of statistically significant cointegrating vectors among the prices of 12 major commodity groups. Under this approach, an increase in the number of significant cointegrating vectors indicates a reduction in relative price variability, while a decrease suggests the opposite. Subsequently, we employ ordinary least squares regression to analyze how the fluctuations in inflation affect the variability in relative prices. The sample period ranges from December 2007 to April 2021.FindingsThe empirical results indicate that there exists a certain threshold inflation rate corresponding to which the variability in relative prices is minimized. More importantly, consistent with the theoretical predictions, the results suggest that it is not inflation per se, but the deviation of inflation from the 3% threshold level in either direction that causes higher dispersion in relative prices.Research limitations/implicationsThe empirical findings from this study have crucial implications for the operation of monetary and fiscal policy. In particular, these findings suggest that stabilizing long-term inflation around a certain threshold rate will not only help to anchor inflation expectations effectively but will also minimize the welfare costs associated with inflation.Originality/valueGiven the rising inflationary pressure in the recent past and its welfare costs, the study assumes crucial importance in understating how fluctuations in inflation distort the relative price structure and eventually cause resource misallocations and economic inefficiency.

Distributional Incidence of Indirect Taxation on Consumer Groups in Sri Lanka: A Descriptive Study

This study investigates how the indirect tax burden was distributed among households under different aspects. Sri Lanka's tax structure represents more indirect tax and significantly less direct tax income. Direct taxes satisfy the equity principle of taxation, while indirect tax is violated. Direct taxes are imposed according to the ability to pay. Persons who have a higher income will pay a higher rate of income tax, and persons who have less income will pay a lower rate of income tax. Unlike direct taxes, indirect taxes are paid by both rich and poor persons irrespective of their income level. Thus, the burden of the indirect tax will be badly impacted on poor households because when they purchase goods and services from the market, they pay a significant portion of indirect taxes compared with the average income. A consumer survey was performed, and data were collected using a structured questionnaire under the light of the Stratified Convenient Sampling Method. One hundred fifteen commodity baskets were selected based on the Colombo Consumer Price Index under the broad categories of food and non-food and eleven subcategories of commodity groups. Colombo District was selected as the sample district. Four hundred eighty-two respondents were collected, representing low-income, middle-income, and high-income households. The descriptive and quantitative approach were used for the analysis. The findings of the study emphasized that the indirect tax burden rate of low-income households was significantly greater than the indirect tax burden rate of high-income households. The regressive effect was reflected in the findings, indicating that poor households are bearing a higher indirect tax burden rate in terms of average income and average expenditure. The derived Lorenz Curves and the calculated Gini Coefficients also emphasized the regressive effect of the indirect tax, presenting an upward-sloping Lorenz Curve and negative Gini Coefficient values.

Commodity prices and economic growth: Empirical evidence from countries with different income groups

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of global commodity prices such as beverage, energy, fertilizer, food, metal and mineral, precious metal and agricultural raw material on GDP per capita of countries with different income levels which are low, lower-middle, upper-middle, and high. The results of the study using panel system GMM method over the period 2007–2021 showed that for all income group countries, the impact of energy and fertilizer prices on GDP per capita is negative, while the impact of food and metal and mineral prices is positive on GDP per capita. The study also found that rising prices of agricultural raw materials reduces GDP per capita of all income group countries except lower-middle income countries. Moreover, according to the results of the study, rising beverage prices increased the GDP per capita only of high-income countries, while rising precious metal prices decreased the GDP per capita of lower-middle and high-income countries. The study revealed that price changes in all commodity groups have an impact on the GDP per capita of high-income countries. It is demonstrated that price changes in all commodity groups have an impact in both directions on the GDP per capita of all income groups, depending on whether they are net producers or net consumers. The results of the study showed that, contrary to the literature, the countries most affected by commodity prices are high-income countries. Based on the empirical findings, this study point to the need for international cooperation to minimize the adverse effects of commodity price changes.

Impacts of the Ban on the Soil-Applied Fumigant Methyl Bromide.

The loss of the soil fumigant methyl bromide (MeBr) and adoption of soil fumigant alternatives has been challenging for farmers, particularly for those crops in which pathogens previously controlled by MeBr have emerged as significant problems, but it has resulted in some unanticipated benefits for the scientific community and the environment. Applauded as one of the most effective environmental agreements to date, the universally accepted Montreal Protocol on Ozone Depleting Substances has had a significant impact on the environment, reducing the release of halogenated compounds from anthropogenic sources enough to mitigate global warming by an estimated 1.1°C by 2021. The funding associated with various MeBr transition programs has increased collaboration across scientific disciplines, commodity groups, industry, and regulatory agencies. Chemical alternatives and improved application strategies, including the development of gas-retentive agricultural films, coupled with sound efficacy data and grower ingenuity have resulted in the sustained production of many of the impacted crops; although there has been some loss of acreage and value, particularly for Florida fumigated crops, for some, value has continued to increase, allowing production to continue. The loss of a single, broad-spectrum tool for pest control has led to a deeper understanding of the specific pest complexes impacting these at-risk crops, as well as the development of new, biologically based management tools for their control while increasing our understanding of the role of the soil microbiome in pest control and crop production.

Impact of tobacco spending on intrahousehold resource allocation in Montenegro

BackgroundThe main goal of this study is to estimate the crowding out impact of tobacco expenditures on the household budget allocation to other mutually exclusive commodity groups in Montenegro.MethodologyThe analysis...

Grower assessment of profitability impact from Brown Marmorated Stink Bug, Halyomorpha halys (Stål), the value of management information sources, and use of potential management practices

AbstractAn online survey was conducted from June 2018 to March 2021 to elicit information from commercial farmers and growers on the economic impact of the Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (BMSB) (Halyomorpha halys (Stål)) on agriculture and their attitudes towards adopting various alternative management practices, including use of Trissolcus japonicus as a biocontrol agent. Most respondents reported that BMSB reduced the profitability of their operation, with the largest impacts coming from reduced quality and increased spray cost. Improved monitoring techniques and natural enemies have the greatest probability to be used to manage BMSB, while tactics like attract and kill, border sprays, repellents, trap crops and netting were less likely to be adopted. Further analysis using ordered logistic and tobit regression models shows that the factors that influence potential adoption vary significantly for each management practice. This suggests that adoption efforts for alternate management practices should focus on the attributes of specific commodity groups and targeted educational programmes may be required to overcome the resistance of growers using conventional growing practices. Several variables have a consistent impact on the respondent's willingness to pay for a T. japonicus‐based biocontrol including being a commercial producer (positive impact), use of conventional growing practices (negative) and increased concern about the impact of BMSB (positive).

Economy-wide Impacts of India–UAE CEPA: A CGE Analysis

The present study investigates the potential trade effects of tariff liberalisation under India–United Arab Emirates (UAE) Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) using general equilibrium analysis. The study specifically examines output, employment, exports and welfare effects of India–UAE CEPA in computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and database version 10. The study indicates output gains in manufacturing sector for both countries and an increase in demand for unskilled labour in India. The study argues that the CEPA will result in an increase in global exports of all commodity groups for both India and UAE and a substantial gain in bilateral exports of both countries. The present study suggests that deeper integration through tariff reduction on imports under India–UAE CEPA will be welfare enhancing for both India and UAE. Overall results show that there is a lot of untapped potential to bring the welfare gains for both trading partners. Given the present schedule of tariff reduction of CEPA, a win–win scenario will emerge for both partners in short as well as long run. Finally, the study cautioned about the implications of sensitive list for trade effects and protection from misuse of rules of origin in the CEPA. JEL Codes: F1, F13, F14, F15, F17

Artificial Intelligence for Decision Making in the Supply Chain

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a technology that has the potential to significantly impact organizational decision-making. In supply chain management (SCM), data analysis and organizational decision-mak- ing play a crucial role in providing insights into various aspects of the supply chain, such as relevant goods, inventory levels, order processing times, delivery times, and transportation costs. By analyzing data, companies can identify inefficiencies in their supply chain and take corrective actions to improve performance. The SC system is a customer-oriented and integrated system that determines planning, administration, and management processes for internal and external material and related flows, for- mulating the optimal factor of added value. In this study, we aim to identify hazardous products by analyzing product identification information at customs checkpoints and locations where vendible items are delivered to customers. We have identified several commodity groups and substances that are potentially harmful and dangerous to human health.