Group-based Trajectory Analysis Research Articles

Disability and pain after anterior cervical decompression and fusion: A group-based trajectory analysis

Disability and pain after anterior cervical decompression and fusion: A group-based trajectory analysis

Five-year Trajectory about Screening for Complication of Diabetes Kidney Disease and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality : Focusing on Regional Difference.

The overall screening rate for complication of diabetes kidney disease is improving; however, regional variations are increasing. It is necessary to select regions vulnerable to change and understand their characteristics. Group-based trajectory analysis was performed to derive change patterns in the complication of diabetes kidney disease screening rate in 244 regions using Community Health Survey data between 2015 and 2019. ANOVA test was conducted to examine the differences in regional characteristics and CVD in each change pattern. The change patterns in complication of diabetes kidney disease screening rate were classified into four groups: high and rapidly increasing (Group 1, 5.2%), steady high (Group 2, 8.2%), moderate and increasing (Group 3, 52.9%), and low and slightly increasing (Group 4, 23.8%). Group 4 had many rural areas and worse socioeconomic status, healthcare systems, health behaviors, and diabetes management, and these regions had higher CVD mortality rates. Regions where the screening for complication of diabetes kidney disease rate did not improve compared to other regions were vulnerable not only in socioeconomic status, healthcare system, and health behavior, but also in disease management. This suggests the need for local and environmental support, as well as aggressive health service interventions in relatively vulnerable areas.

Genetic and phenotypic evidence of the predictive validity of preschool parent reports of hyperactivity/impulsivity and inattention.

To determine the validity of parent reports (PRs) of ADHD in preschoolers, we assessed hyperactivity/impulsivity (HI) and inattention (IN) in 1114 twins with PRs at 1.5, 2.5, 4, 5, 14, 15, and 17 years, and teacher-reports at 6, 7, 9, 10, and 12. We examined if preschool PRs (1) predict high HI/IN trajectories, and (2) capture genetic contributions to HI/IN into adolescence. Group-based trajectory analyses identified three 6-17 years trajectories for both HI and IN, including small groups with high HI (N = 88, 10.4%, 77% boys) and IN (N = 158, 17.3%, 75% boys). Controlling for sex, each unit of HI PRs starting at 1.5 years and at 4 years for IN, increased more than 2-fold the risk of belonging to the high trajectory, with incremental contributions (Odds Ratios = 2.5-4.5) at subsequent ages. Quantitative genetic analyses showed that genetic contributions underlying preschool PRs accounted for up to a quarter and a third of the heritability of later HI and IN, respectively. Genes underlying 1.5-year HI and 4-year IN contributed to 6 of 8 later HI and IN time-points and largely explained the corresponding phenotypic correlations. Results provide phenotypic and genetic evidence that preschool parent reports of HI and IN are valid means to predict developmental risk of ADHD.

Understanding neighborhood income segregation around the clock using mobile phone ambient population data

This study examines the temporal changes in income segregation within the ambient population around the clock using mobile phone big data. It employs ordinal entropy, a metric suited for measuring segregation among ordered groups, to quantify the level of segregation among eight income groups within micro-geographic units throughout the 24-h period on a weekday and a weekend day in the urban core of Guangzhou, China. The study further decomposes daily segregation by location and time profile. We identify urban functions and neighborhood contexts relevant for income segregation and explore their temporal variation. Using group-based trajectory analysis, we classify daily segregation trends among 400 m urban grids into seven distinct trajectories for both weekday and weekend. Our findings confirm that segregation fluctuates constantly. The role of local urban functions, particularly retail, accommodation, and offices, and neighborhood context, such as the number of residents and the share of non-local migrants, exhibits a significant temporal rhythm. The seemingly convoluted 24-h segregation time series among urban grids follow just a few distinct trajectories with clear geographical patterns. There is limited variability at individual grids both over the course of a day and across days. Shifts across different trajectory types between weekday and weekend are rare. The dynamic daily segregation in the ambient population per se may be an enduring characteristic of neighborhoods and a real-time channel for neighborhood contextual influences, potentially fueling long-term residential segregation and neighborhood change.

Mental health of caregivers of children with medical complexity: group-based trajectory modelling

ObjectiveTo describe the mental health trajectories of caregivers of children with medical complexity (CMC) and explore child characteristics associated with below-average caregiver mental health.DesignA secondary analysis of prospectively collected data...

Trajectories of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratios during neoadjuvant chemotherapy correlate with short- and long-term outcomes in gastric cancer: a group-based trajectory analysis

BackgroundSystemic inflammatory factors can predict the survival prognosis of gastric cancer (GC) patients after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT). However, whether longitudinal changes in systemic inflammatory factors are associated with short - and long-term outcomes has not been reported.MethodsThis study is a retrospective analysis of 216 patients with advanced gastric cancer who received NACT between January 2011 and June 2019, comparing receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for screening suitable inflammatory markers. Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) was used to analyze longitudinal changes in inflammatory markers during NACT to identify different potential subgroups and to compare postoperative complications, recurrence-free survival (RFS), and overall survival (OS) among subgroups.ResultsUltimately, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) had the highest area under the curve (AUC) value in predicting prognosis was included in the GBTM analysis. Three trajectories of NLR were obtained: Stable group (SG) (n = 89), Ascent-descend group (ADG) (n = 80) and Continuous descend group (CDG) (n = 47). Compared with SG, ADG and CDG are associated with an increased risk of postoperative recurrence and death. The median time of RFS and OS of SG was longer than that of ADG and CDG (median RFS 81 vs. 44 and 22 months; median OS 69 vs. 41 and 30 months). In addition, CDG had significantly higher postoperative serious complications than SG and ADG (17 (36.2%) vs. 17 (19.1%) and 12 (15.0%); p = 0.005).ConclusionThere were different trajectories of NLR during NACT, and these potential trajectories were significantly associated with severe postoperative complications, recurrence, and mortality in patients with GC.

Identifying longitudinal healthcare pathways and subsequent mortality for people living with dementia in England: an observational group-based trajectory analysis

BackgroundThe number of people living with dementia (PLWD) continues to increase, particularly those with severe symptomatology. Severe symptoms and greater ill-health result in more acute care need. Early healthcare interventions can prove beneficial. Healthcare use has not been analysed as a holistic set of interlinked events. This study explores different healthcare pathways among PLWD, social or spatial inequalities in healthcare pathways and subsequent mortality risk.MethodsGroup-based trajectory models (GBTM) were applied to electronic healthcare records. We generated clusters of PLWD with similar five-year, post-diagnosis trajectories in rates of primary and secondary healthcare use. Potential social and spatial variations in healthcare use clusters were examined. Cox Proportional Hazards used to explore variation in subsequent mortality risk between healthcare use clusters.ResultsFour healthcare use clusters were identified in both early- (n = 3732) and late-onset (n = 6224) dementia populations. Healthcare use variations were noted; consistent or diminishing healthcare use was associated with lower subsequent mortality risk. Increasing healthcare use was associated with increased mortality risk. Descriptive analyses indicated social and spatial variation in healthcare use cluster membership.ConclusionHealthcare pathways can help indicate changing need and variation in need, with differential patterns in initial healthcare use post-diagnosis, producing similar subsequent mortality risk. Care in dementia needs to be more accessible and appropriate, with care catered to specific and changing needs. Better continuity of care and greater awareness of dementia in primary can enhance prospects for PLWD. Research needs to further illuminate holistic care need for PLWD, including health and social care use, inequalities in care, health and outcomes.

Physical activity positively impacts disability outcomes during transition from midlife to early older age irrespective of body mass index

We examined the effects of physical activity (PA) and body mass index (BMI) longitudinal patterns (trajectories) on subjective measures of mobility, function, and disability in adults and assessed whether effects of PA trajectories on function varied due to BMI. Group-based trajectory analyses were used to determine patterns of change in PA and BMI using data from the Health and Retirement Study 1931–1941 birth cohort (n = 10,507). Physical function was assessed by Mobility Limitations (0–5 scale) and Large Muscle Function (0–4 scale) Indexes, as well as with score for activities of daily living (ADLs) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs), with higher scores being worse. Our analyses estimated four distinct PA trajectories: decreasing, (2) fluctuating, (3) stable high, and (4) emergent (previously low/sedentary with increased PA over the study period). Worse mobility limitations, large muscle function, ADLs, and IADLs were associated with Decreasing and Fluctuating PA groups. Better outcomes were associated with Emergent and Stable High PA groups. The five BMI trajectories were stable normal/overweight, modest decreasing, fluctuating, steep decreasing, and increasing. No significant interaction existed between PA and BMI trajectories for Mobility Limitations (P= 0.577), Large Muscle Function (P= 0.511), ADLs (P= 0.600), and IADLs (P= 0.152). These findings may empower clinicians to promote messages to midlifers that meaningful changes in PA can improve function in older age.

Poor mobility and lower limb weakness are associated with three distinct depressive symptom trajectories over 6 years in older people.

Physical decline can be associated with the onset of depressive symptoms in later life. This study aimed to identify physical and lifestyle risk factors for depressive symptom trajectories in community-dwelling older adults. Participants were 553 people aged 70-90 years who underwent baseline physical, psychological and lifestyle assessments. Group-based trajectory analysis was used to identify patterns of depressive symptom development over 6 years of follow-up. Strengths of associations between baseline functional test performances and depressive symptom trajectories were evaluated with univariable ordinal models. Subsequently, the adjusted cumulative odds ratio for the association between identified risk factors, demographic factors and baseline anti-depressant use were measured using multivariable ordinal logistic regression. Three distinct depressive symptom trajectories were identified: a low-and-stable course (10% of participants), a low-and-increasing course (81%) and a moderate-and-increasing course (9%). Timed Up and Go test time was the strongest risk factor of depressive symptom trajectory, followed by Five Times Sit-to-Stand test performance, planned physical activity levels, and knee extension strength (adjusted standardised ORs 1.65, 95% CI 1.34-2.04; 1.44, 95% CI 1.16-1.77; 1.44, 95% CI 1.17-1.76 and 1.41, 95% CI 1.15-1.73 respectively). After adjusting for age, sex, body mass index and baseline anti-depressant use, Timed Up and Go test performance and knee extension strength were independently and significantly associated with depressive trajectories. Timed Up and Go test times, Five Times Sit-to-Stand test performance, planned physical activity levels and knee extension strength are associated with three discrete depressive symptom trajectories. These clinical tests may help identify older adults aged 70-90 years at risk of developing depressive symptoms and help guide subsequent strength and mobility interventions.

Blood Pressure Trajectories and Outcomes After Endovascular Thrombectomy for Acute Ischemic Stroke.

Data on systolic blood pressure (SBP) trajectories in the first 24 hours after endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) in acute ischemic stroke are limited. We sought to identify these trajectories and their relationship to outcomes. We combined individual-level data from 5 studies of patients with acute ischemic stroke who underwent EVT and had individual blood pressure values after the end of the procedure. We used group-based trajectory analysis to identify the number and shape of SBP trajectories post-EVT. We used mixed effects regression models to identify associations between trajectory groups and outcomes adjusting for potential confounders and reported the respective adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and common odds ratios. There were 2640 total patients with acute ischemic stroke included in the analysis. The most parsimonious model identified 4 distinct SBP trajectories, that is, general directional patterns after repeated SBP measurements: high, moderate-high, moderate, and low. Patients in the higher blood pressure trajectory groups were older, had a higher prevalence of vascular risk factors, presented with more severe stroke syndromes, and were less likely to achieve successful recanalization after the EVT. In the adjusted analyses, only patients in the high-SBP trajectory were found to have significantly higher odds of early neurological deterioration (aOR, 1.84 [95% CI, 1.20-2.82]), intracranial hemorrhage (aOR, 1.84 [95% CI, 1.31-2.59]), mortality (aOR, 1.75 [95% CI, 1.21-2.53), death or disability (aOR, 1.63 [95% CI, 1.15-2.31]), and worse functional outcomes (adjusted common odds ratio,1.92 [95% CI, 1.47-2.50]). Patients follow distinct SBP trajectories in the first 24 hours after an EVT. Persistently elevated SBP after the procedure is associated with unfavorable short-term and long-term outcomes.

LIFESTYLE TRAJECTORIES PREDICT LATER COGNITIVE FUNCTION AMONG OLDER PEOPLE IN TAIWAN

Abstract Purpose The purpose of this study was to identify the group-based trajectories of lifestyles and to predict the later cognitive function among older people in Taiwan. Methods The data were from five waves of the “Taiwan Survey on Aging “ (1999-2015). Only those who completed the last wave of cognitive function were used for analysis (n=1314). The cognitive function was measured by 8 items of SPMSQ, reverse numbers and recall 10 words, with score ranged 0-19. Nineteen lifestyle behaviors (healthy behaviors, leisure activities, lifelong learning and social participation) across waves were analysed by group-based trajectory analysis first, and then the effects of lifestyle trajectories on cognitive function were analysed by linear regression. Results Each lifestyle variable was identified as 2 to 6 trajectory groups. Significant lifestyle trajectories on later cognitive function included gardening (high), drinking (increasing), providing instrumental support (increasing), playing chess (high), reading (middle & high), outdoor activities (high), group activities (yes), political participation (no), volunteering (yes), and stress (high vs. lowest). After controlling for covariates, cognitive function was related to gardening (high) (B=0.642), playing chess (high) (B=0.855), reading (high) (B=1.699), group activities (B=0.640), and lower stress (high stress B=−0.806). Other significant variables for better cognitive function included younger age, living with less family members, having less physical function difficulties, having lower depressive symptoms, and being more religious. Conclusion Long-term lifestyle trajectories may affect later cognitive function. Having more social participation, more cognitive-related leisure, having less stress and being physically healthier are protective for cognitive function.

BMI trajectory in adulthood in relation to all-cause and cause-specific mortality: A retrospective cohort study in Taiwan.

A dynamic change of weight over time has been known as an important factor that impacts mortality risk. The aims of this study were to identify the heterogeneity of BMI trajectory groups and to examine the association of the trajectories of BMI and all-cause and cause-specific mortality. The data for this study were obtained from a large prospective cohort study in Taiwan between 1998 and 2019 that was linked to the National Death Registry for death information. The participants were stratified into four groups by age and gender; self-reported demographics and measured BMI data were used. We used group-based trajectory analysis to identify the distinct trajectories of changes in BMI. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the hazard ratio (HR) of all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk. Data were analyzed in April 2020 and included 89,886 participants. Four trajectory groups were identified by the pattern of BMI change over time. Our study shows that different trajectories were associated with mortality. Our findings suggest that the mortality risk differs in each trajectory group and in each age and gender stratification. It appears that obesity is a protective factor in cancer-related mortality in females but not in males in group of old age participants; low-normal weight is a risk factor in respiratory-related mortality in all participants. Our findings can be used to suggest the appropriate BMI in each age and gender groups and thereby earlier health interventions can be taken to avoid mortality.

Association of novel adult cough subclasses with clinical characteristics and lung function across six decades of life in a prospective, community-based cohort in Australia: an analysis of the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS)

Cough is a common yet heterogeneous condition. Little is known about the characteristics and course of cough in general populations. We aimed to investigate cough subclasses, their characteristics from childhood across six decades of life, and potential treatable traits in a community-based cohort. For our analysis of the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS), a prospective, community-based cohort study that began on Feb 23, 1968, and has so far followed up participants in Tasmania, Australia, at intervals of 10 years from a mean age of 7 years to a mean age of 53 years, we used data collected as part of the TAHS to distinguish cough subclasses among current coughers at age 53 years. For this analysis, participants who answered Yes to at least one cough-related question via self-report questionnaire were defined as current coughers and included in a latent class analysis of cough symptoms; participants who answered No to all nine cough-related questions were defined as non-coughers and excluded from this analysis. Two groups of longitudinal features were assessed from age 7 years to age 53 years: previously established longitudinal trajectories of FEV1, forced vital capacity [FVC], FEV1/FVC ratio, asthma, and allergies-identified via group-based trajectory analysis or latent class analysis-and symptoms at different timepoints, including asthma, current productive cough, ever chronic productive cough, current smoking, and second-hand smoking. Of 8583 participants included at baseline in the TAHS, 6128 (71·4%) were traced and invited to participate in a follow-up between Sept 3, 2012, and Nov 8, 2016; 3609 (58·9%) of these 6128 returned the cough questionnaire. The mean age of participants in this analysis was 53 years (SD 1·0). 2213 (61·3%) of 3609 participants were defined as current coughers and 1396 (38·7%) were categorised as non-coughers and excluded from the latent class analysis. 1148 (51·9%) of 2213 participants in this analysis were female and 1065 (48·1%) were male. Six distinct cough subclasses were identified: 206 (9·3%) of 2213 participants had minimal cough, 1189 (53·7%) had cough with colds only, 305 (13·8%) had cough with allergies, 213 (9·6%) had intermittent productive cough, 147 (6·6%) had chronic dry cough, and 153 (6·9%) had chronic productive cough. Compared with people with minimal cough, and in contrast to other cough subclasses, people in the chronic productive cough and intermittent productive cough subclasses had worse lung function trajectories (FEV1 persistent low trajectory 2·9%, 6·4%, and 16·1%; p=0·0011, p<0·0001; FEV1/FVC early low-rapid decline trajectory 2·9%, 12·1%, and 13·0%; p=0·012, p=0·0007) and a higher prevalence of cough (age 53 years 0·0%, 32·4% [26·1-38·7], and 50·3% [42·5-58·2]) and asthma (age 53 years 6·3% [3·7-10·6], 26·9% [21·3-33·3], and 41·7% [24·1-49·7]) from age 7 years to age 53 years. We identified potential treatable traits for six cough subclasses (eg, asthma, allergies, and active and passive smoking for productive cough). The required management of productive cough in primary care (eg, routine spirometry) might differ from that of dry cough if our findings are supported by other studies. Future population-based studies could apply our framework to address the heterogeneity and complexity of cough in the community. The National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, The University of Melbourne, Clifford Craig Medical Research Trust of Tasmania, Victorian Asthma Foundation, Queensland Asthma Foundation, Tasmanian Asthma Foundation, The Royal Hobart Hospital Research Foundation, the Helen MacPherson Smith Trust, GlaxoSmithKline, and the China Scholarship Council.

Association Between Trajectory of Socioeconomic Position and Regional Brain Volumes Related to Dementia: Results From the NEIGE Study.

Low socioeconomic position (SEP) has been linked to an increased risk of dementia. However, little is known about the association between SEP trajectory and regional brain volumes related to dementia. A random sample of community-dwelling older adults (n = 428, age = 73.1±5.5) living in Tokamachi City (Niigata Prefecture, Japan) without medical histories of dementia, Parkinson's disease, and depression who underwent automated assessment of brain volumes on magnetic resonance imaging and responded to a self-administered questionnaire survey in 2017. We measured SEP in childhood (household SEP at age 15), young adulthood (education), mid-adulthood (the longest occupation), and late adulthood (current wealth), and further performed group-based trajectory analysis to identify lifetime trajectory patterns on SEP. Multivariate regression models were employed to investigate the association between SEP trajectories and 4 regional brain volumes related to the development of Alzheimer's disease (ie, entorhinal cortex, hippocampus, amygdala, and the parahippocampus), the most common type of dementia. We found 3 distinct SEP trajectories (stable middle class [68%], downward [23%], and upward [9%]). Compared to those who experienced stable middle class, older adults who experienced the upward SEP mobility had significantly larger hippocampus (β: 213.2, 95% confidence interval: 14.7, 411.8). On the other hand, older adults who experienced downward SEP mobility showed no significant differences in any of the 4 brain structural volumes. Our findings indicate that upward life-course SEP mobility is associated with larger volumes of hippocampus in old age. SEP trajectory may offer us a useful lens to enhance our understanding of the etiology of dementia.

Abstract 17032: Association of Blood Pressure Patterns During Pregnancy With Incident Hypertension and Cardiovascular Disease Risk at 2-7 Years After Delivery: The nuMoM2b Heart Health Study

Introduction: Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) are risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, associations between subclinical blood pressure (BP) elevations in pregnancy and CVD risk are unknown. Aims: To identify BP patterns during pregnancy among individuals without HDP and determine their association with long-term CVD risk and hypertension (HTN) 2-7 years after delivery. Methods: We included nulliparous individuals from the prospective, multicenter nuMoM2b Study Heart Health Study (nuMoM2b-HHS) who had &gt; 1 BP from each trimester, and excluded those with chronic HTN or HDP. We modeled patterns using group-based trajectory analysis of the mid-BP (average of systolic and diastolic BP) during pregnancy. We selected the final number of groups based on the Bayesian Information Criteria. At 2-7 years after delivery, 30-year predicted CVD risk was estimated using the Framingham risk score; incident HTN was defined as BP &gt; 130/80. Generalized linear models estimated associations between mid-BP trajectory group and CVD risk, adjusting for sociodemographics, adverse pregnancy outcomes, and first-trimester mid-BP. Results: Of 3309 participants, mean age was 27.1 (SD 5.5) years. Five mid-BP groups were identified ( FIGURE ). Incident HTN at mean follow-up of 3.7 years after delivery was 4.2% in low-stable, 11.1% moderate-stable, 21.4% moderate-decreasing, 21.8% moderate increasing, and 44.2% in elevated-stable groups. Compared with the moderate-stable group, adjusted 30-year predicted CVD risk was significantly higher by 0.8% (0.4, 1.1), 1.6% (0.9, 2.3) and 2.6% (2.1, 3.1) in the moderate-decreasing, moderate-increasing and elevated-stable groups, respectively. Conclusions: Among people not meeting HDP criteria, but with elevated mid-BP during pregnancy, nearly half had HTN within 5 years after delivery, and long-term CVD risk was higher. Mid-BP elevations during pregnancy may inform long-term CVD risk even in the absence of HDP.

Association of Opioid Use Disorder Diagnosis With Use of Physical Therapy and Chiropractic Care Among Chronic Low Back Pain Patients: A Group-Based Trajectory Analysis

Nonpharmacologic approaches are recommended as first-line treatment for chronic pain, and their importance is heightened among individuals with co-occurring opioid use disorder (OUD), in whom opioid therapies may be particularly detrimental. Our objectives were to assess the receipt and trajectories of nonpharmacologic pain treatment and determine the association of OUD diagnosis with these trajectories. This retrospective cohort study used Medicare claims data from 2016 to 2018 and applied group-based trajectory models to identify distinct patterns of physical therapy (PT) or chiropractic care treatment over the 12 months following a new episode of chronic low back pain. We used logistic regression models to estimate the association of co-occurring OUD with group membership in PT and chiropractic trajectories. Our sample comprised 607,729 beneficiaries at least 18 years of age, of whom 11.4% had a diagnosis of OUD. The 12-month prevalence of PT and chiropractic treatment receipt was 24.7% and 27.1%, respectively, and lower among Medicare beneficiaries with co-occurring OUD (PT: 14.6%; chiropractic: 6.8%). The final models identified 3 distinct trajectories each for PT (no/little use [76.6% of sample], delayed and increasing use [8.2%], and early and declining use [15.2%]); and chiropractic (no/little use [75.0% of sample], early and declining use [17.3%], and early and sustained use [7.7%]). People with OUD were more likely to belong in trajectories with little/no PT or chiropractic care as compared to other trajectories. The findings indicate that people with co-occurring chronic pain and OUD often do not receive early or any nonpharmacologic pain therapies as recommended by practice guidelines. PerspectivePT and chiropractic care use were low overall and even lower among Medicare beneficiaries with co-occurring OUD compared with those without OUD. As updated guidelines on pain management are promulgated, targeted interventions (eg, insurance policy, provider, and patient education) are needed to ensure equitable access to guideline-recommended pain therapies.

Statistical model of trajectories of reduced mobility in older people with locomotive disorders: a prospective cohort study with group-based trajectory model

BackgroundToday we experience “Super-aged society”, and a drastic increase in the number of older people needing assistance is an urgent matter for everyone from medical and socio-economical standpoints.Locomotive organ dysfunction due to musculoskeletal disorders is one of the main problems in these patients. Although the concepts of frailty and sarcopenia have been proposed for functional decline, pain remains the main and non-negligible complaint in these of such disorders.This prospective cohort study aimed to observe the changes of reduced mobility in patients with locomotive disorders and to determine the risk factors for functional deterioration of those patients using statistical modeling.MethodsA cohort of older adults with locomotive disorders who were followed up every 6 months for up to 18 months was organized. Pain, physical findings related to the lower extremities, locomotive function in performing daily tasks, and Geriatric Locomotive Function Scale-25 (GLFS-25) score were collected to predict the progress of deterioration. Group-based trajectory analysis was used to identify subgroups of changes of GLFS-25 scores, and multinomial logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate potential predictors of the GLFS-25 trajectories.ResultsOverall, 314 participants aged between 65 and 93 years were included. The participants were treated with various combinations of orthopedic conservative treatments on an outpatient basis.The in-group trajectory model analysis revealed a clear differentiation between the four groups. The mild and severe groups generally maintained their GLFD-25 scores, while the moderate group included a fluctuating group and a no change group. This study showed that comorbidity of osteoporosis was related to GLFS-25 score over 18 months. Age was a weak factor to be moderate or severe group, but gender was not. In addition, the number of pain locations, number of weak muscles, one-leg standing time, grip strength and BMI significantly contributed to the change in GLFS-25 score.ConclusionsThis study proposes an effective statistical model to monitor locomotive functions and related findings. Pain and comorbid osteoporosis are significant factors that related to functional deterioration of activities. In addition, the study shows a patient group recovers from the progression and their possible contributing factors.

Work disability trajectories before and after common mental disorder among youth in private sector

Abstract Background Little is known regarding work disability (sick leave and disability pension) among young employees in the private sector with common mental disorder (CMD) i.e. depression, anxiety and stress-related disorders. We aim to identify a) trajectory groups of work disability among young private sector employees in Sweden 3 years before and 6 years after a CMD diagnosis and b) investigate if sociodemographic, work- and health-related factors were associated with trajectory membership. Methods A longitudinal nationwide register-based study was conducted including all individuals aged 22-29 years, gainfully employed who had a CMD diagnosis in specialised healthcare or had prescribed antidepressant (N = 12,121) in 2014 (Y0), with follow-up from Y-3 - Y + 6. Group-based trajectory analysis was used to identify groups of individuals who followed similar trajectories of months of work disability. Multinomial logistic regression was used to determine associations between sociodemographic, work and health-related factors and trajectory membership. Results We identified three trajectories. Most individuals were in the ‘constant low’ trajectory with almost no work disability (57%) from Y-3 - Y + 6, followed by an ‘increasing low’ trajectory (36%) of around 1 month work disability each year and a ‘fluctuant high’ trajectory (7%) reaching 7 months of work disability in Y + 3 and declining to 5 months in Y + 6. Being women, low education and history of specialised healthcare use for musculoskeletal disorder was associated with belonging in the ‘increasing low’ and ‘fluctuant high’ trajectories. Work-related factors i.e. occupational class (non-manual/manual work) and branch (e.g. healthcare) had weak to no association with any trajectory membership. Conclusions Among young individuals working in the private sector, women, those with low education and those with musculoskeletal disorder require special attention regarding their return-to-work process following a CMD diagnosis. Key messages • Most (57%) young private sector employees had almost no work disability (WD) during 6 years after a common mental disorder (CMD) while 7% had almost 7 months of WD still 3-4 years after CMD. • Women, those with low education and with musculoskeletal disorder require special attention regarding their return-to-work process following a CMD diagnosis among young private sector employees.

Joint trajectories of physical activity, self-rated health and income in Finnish statutory retirees

Abstract Background Health behaviours, health and socioeconomic position, particularly income, are known to change during ageing. However, no previous study has examined how they develop together over statutory retirement transition. We aimed to examine this joint development and to identify determinants of distinct groups. Methods We examined former employees of the City of Helsinki, Finland, who retired statutorily 2000-2022 (n = 4384, 79% women). We used five repeated questionnaire surveys to examine the joint developmental patterns in key indicators of healthy ageing and wellbeing: self-rated health, leisure-time physical activity and household income. We used joint group-based trajectory analysis to identify latent developmental groups and average marginal effects to examine determinants of the trajectory group membership. Results We found four distinct groups describing the joint developmental patterns. Group 1 (23%) had consistently poor health, little physical activity, and low, although slightly increasing income levels. Group 2 (34%) had first good but then declining health, average physical activity, and low but slightly increasing income. Group 3 (13%) had good health and very high level of physical activity, but average and fluctuating income. Group 4 (30%) had first good but then declining health, stable rather low physical activity and sharply increasing and high income. People with obesity had 23% (95% CI 22-26) higher likelihood of belonging to the Group 1 as compared to people with normal weight. They were also more likely with low education. Conclusions Over a follow-up of more than 20 years, we identified distinct groups among statutory retirees regarding their development of physical activity, self-rated health and income. Public health interventions to improve well-being and narrow health inequalities during ageing need to consider this heterogeneity and target policies considering people with different developmental patterns in their well-being. Key messages • Changes in income did not develop jointly with changes in health. Most statutory retirees had relatively good health, despite the development in leisure-time physical activity and household income. • Decline in physical activity could reflect decreasing intensity. Social and health-related factors show associations with the trajectory memberships, reflecting the known inequalities in health.

Group-based trajectory analysis identifies varying diabetes-related cost trajectories among type 2 diabetes patients in Texas: an empirical study using commercial insurance

BackgroundThe trend of Type 2 diabetes-related costs over 4 years could be classified into different groups. Patient demographics, clinical factors (e.g., A1C, short- and long-term complications), and rurality could be associated with different trends of cost. Study objectives are to: (1) understand the trajectories of cost in different groups; (2) investigate the relationship between cost and key factors in each cost trajectory group; and (3) assess significant factors associated with different cost trajectories.MethodsCommercial claims data in Texas from 2016 to 2019 were provided by a large commercial insurer and were analyzed using group-based trajectory analysis, longitudinal analysis of cost, and logistic regression analyses of different trends of cost.ResultsFive groups of distinct trends of Type 2 diabetes-related cost were identified. Close to 20% of patients had an increasing cost trend over the 4 years. High A1C values, diabetes complications, and other comorbidities were significantly associated with higher Type 2 diabetes costs and higher chances of increasing trend over time. Rurality was significantly associated with higher chances of increasing trend over time.ConclusionsGroup-based trajectory analysis revealed distinct patient groups with increased cost and stable cost at low, medium, and high levels in the 4-year period. The significant associations found between the trend of cost and A1C, complications, and rurality have important policy and program implications for potentially improving health outcomes and constraining healthcare costs.