Group-based Multi-trajectory Modeling Research Articles

Combined blood pressure and heart rate trajectories are associated with prognosis in critically ill patients with acute aortic dissection: A group-based multi-trajectory analysis

BackgroundManaging systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and heart rate (HR) is pivotal in acute aortic dissection (AAD) care. However, no prior studies have jointly analyzed the trajectories of these parameters. This research aimed to characterize their joint longitudinal trajectories and investigate the influence on AAD prognosis. MethodsWe included AAD patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV database. Using group-based multi-trajectory modeling (GBMTM), we identified combined trajectories of SBP, DBP, and HR within the initial 24 h of intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Cox proportional hazard regression, log-binomial regression, and logistic regression were employed to assess the association between trajectory groups and mortality outcomes. ResultsData from 337 patients were analyzed. GBMTM identified five combined trajectory groups. Group 1 featured rapidly declining SBP and DBP with high pulse pressure and low HR; Group 2 showed high to moderate SBP with slight rebound and persistently low HR; Group 3 displayed persistently moderate BP and HR; Group 4 was characterized by moderate blood pressure with persistently high HR; and Group 5 had high to moderate SBP with slight rebound, high but gradually declining DBP, and slightly high HR. Group 3 demonstrated a lower risk of mortality, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.32 (95 % CI, 0.14–0.74), and the adjusted relative risks for in-hospital, 30-day, and 1-year mortalities were 0.37 (95 % CI, 0.15–0.87), 0.25 (95 % CI, 0.10–0.62), and 0.41 (95 % CI, 0.22–0.79), respectively. The time-independent C-index curve demonstrated that the multi-trajectory groups had higher C-index values than any univariate trajectory groups or admission values of SBP, DBP, and HR. ConclusionsUtilization of GBMTM can yield data-driven insights to identify distinct subphenotypes in AAD patients. The combined trajectories of SBP, DBP, and HR within 24 h of ICU admission significantly influenced the mortality rate.

Temporal patterns of organ dysfunction in COVID-19 patients hospitalized in the intensive care unit: A group-based multitrajectory modeling analysis

BackgroundThe course of organ dysfunction (OD) in Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients is unknown. Herein, we analyze the temporal patterns of OD in intensive care unit-admitted COVID-19 patients. MethodsSequential organ failure assessment scores were evaluated daily within 2 weeks of admission to determine the temporal trajectory of OD using group-based multitrajectory modeling (GBMTM). ResultsA total of 392 patients were enrolled with a 28-day mortality rate of 53.6%. GBMTM identified four distinct trajectories. Group 1 (mild OD, n = 64), with a median APACHE II score of 13 (IQR 9-21), had an early resolution of OD and a low mortality rate. Group 2 (moderate OD, n = 140), with a median APACHE II score of 18 (IQR 13-22), had a 28-day mortality rate of 30.0%. Group 3 (severe OD, n = 117), with a median APACHR II score of 20 (IQR 13-27), had a deterioration trend of respiratory dysfunction and a 28-day mortality rate of 69.2%. Group 4 (extremely severe OD, n = 71), with a median APACHE II score of 20 (IQR 17-27), had a significant and sustained OD affecting all organ systems and a 28-day mortality rate of 97.2%. ConclusionsFour distinct trajectories of OD were identified, and respiratory dysfunction trajectory could predict nonpulmonary OD trajectories and patient prognosis.

Trends of Gaps Between Health-Adjusted Life Expectancy and Life Expectancy at the Regional Level in Korea Using a Group-Based Multi-Trajectory Modeling Approach (2008-2019).

Health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) is an indicator of the average lifespan in good health. Through this study, we aimed to identify regional disparities in the gap between HALE and life expectancy, considering the trends that have changed over time in Korea. We employed a group-based multi-trajectory modeling approach to capture trends in the gap between HALE and life expectancy at the regional level from 2008 to 2019. HALE was calculated using incidence-based "years lived with disability." This methodology was also employed in the Korean National Burden of Disease Study. Based on five different information criteria, the most fitted number of trajectory groups was seven, with at least 11 regions in each group. Among the seven groups, one had an exceptionally large gap between HALE and life expectancy compared to that of the others. This group was assigned to 17 regions, of which six were metropolitan cities. Based on the results of this study, we identified regions in which health levels have deteriorated over time, particularly within specific areas of metropolitan cities. These findings can be used to design comprehensive policy interventions for community health promotion and urban regeneration projects in the future.

Application of life course trajectory methods to public health data: A comparison of sequence analysis and group-based multi-trajectory modeling for modelling childhood adversity trajectories

There is increasing awareness of the importance of modelling life course trajectories to unravel how social, economic and health factors relate to health over time. Different methods have been developed and applied in public health to classify individuals into groups based on characteristics of their life course. However, the application and results of different methods are rarely compared. We compared the application and results of two methods to classify life course trajectories of individuals, i.e. sequence analysis and group-based multi-trajectory modeling (GBTM), using public health data. We used high-resolution Danish nationwide register data on 926,160 individuals born between 1987 and 2001, including information on the yearly occurrence of 7 childhood adversities in 2 dimensions (i.e. family poverty and family dynamics). We constructed childhood adversity trajectories from 0 to 15 years by applying (1) sequence analysis using optimal matching and cluster analysis using Ward's method and (2) GBTM using logistic and zero-inflated Poisson regressions. We identified 2 to 8 cluster solutions using both methods and determined the optimal solution for both methods. Both methods generated a low adversity, a poverty, and a consistent or high adversity cluster. The 5-cluster solution using sequence analysis additionally included a household psychiatric illness and a late adversity cluster. The 4-group solution using GBTM additionally included a moderate adversity cluster. Compared with the solution obtained through sequence analysis, the solution obtained through GBTM contained fewer individuals in the low adversity cluster and more in the other clusters. We find that the two methods generate qualitatively similar solutions, but the quantitative distributions of children over the groups are different. The method of choice depends on the type of data available and the research question of interest. We provide a comprehensive overview of important considerations and benefits and drawbacks of both methods.

Social inequalities in trajectories of contacts with the healthcare system in adolescence and young adulthood

BackgroundUnderstanding of healthcare utilization of different populations is useful for prevention and prioritization of healthcare resources. This study aims to identify populations following different trajectories of contacts with the healthcare system and to describe social inequalities between the groups. MethodsIndividuals born 1980–2000 in Denmark were linked to national registers. Contacts with somatic hospitals, psychiatric hospitals, general practitioners, and redeemed prescriptions were counted for each year between 16 and 37 years of age. Trajectories of contacts with the four dimensions of healthcare use were identified using group-based multi-trajectory modeling. ResultsFive trajectory groups were identified. One group had low healthcare utilization over time (12% in women; 27% in men). The largest group had low healthcare utilization but more contacts with especially GP (39% in women; 43% in men). A third group had more contacts with most dimensions of the healthcare system (33% in women; 21% in men). The fourth group had many contacts with especially somatic hospitals and GP (7% in women; 4% in men). The fifth group had many contacts especially to psychiatric hospitals (8% in women; 5% in men). Shorter parental education, parental unemployment, family income below the poverty line, and cohabitation with one or no parent was more frequent in the two high utilization groups compared to the lower utilization groups. ConclusionThe observed trajectories of health service use and the social inequalities between trajectory groups highlight that prevention and treatment targeting the entire population will benefit from a complementary focus on social inequalities in health.

Longitudinal sleep multi-trajectories from age 1 to 5.5 years and their early correlates: results from the Étude Longitudinale Française depuis l'Enfance birth cohort study.

To identify sleep multi-trajectories in children from age 1 to 5.5 years and their early correlates. We collected early family, maternal, and child characteristics, including children's nighttime sleep duration (NSD) and daytime sleep duration (DSD), night waking (NW), and sleep-onset difficulties (SOD), by parental phone interviews at age 2 months and 1-, 2-, 3.5-, and 5.5 years. Group-based multi-trajectory modeling identified sleep multi-trajectory groups. Multinomial logistic regression assessed associations with early factors. We identified five distinct sleep multi-trajectory groups for NSD, DSD, NW, and SOD in 9273 included children. The "Good sleepers" (31.6%) and "Long sleepers" (31.0%) groups had low NW and SOD prevalence and shorter NSD but longer DSD in "Good sleepers" than in "Long sleepers." The "Good sleepers but few SOD" group (10.3%) had long NSD and DSD but a SOD peak at age 3.5 years; the "Improving NW and SOD" group (9.6%) showed short but rapidly increasing NSD to a plateau and high but decreasing NW and SOD; the "Persistent NW and SOD" group (17.5%) had persistent high NW and SOD. Maternal depression during pregnancy and sleep habits at age 1 (e.g. parental presence or feeding to fall asleep, sleeping at least part of the night away from own bed) were common risk factors associated with the most disordered sleep multi-trajectory groups. We identified distinct sleep multi-trajectory groups and early life-associated factors in preschoolers. Most of the factors associated with the most sleep-disordered multi-trajectory groups are likely modifiable and provide clues for early prevention interventions.

Association between aging-related biomarkers and longitudinal trajectories of intrinsic capacity in older adults.

Intrinsic capacity (IC), the composite of physical and mental capacities, declines with age at different rates and patterns between individuals. We aimed to investigate the association between longitudinal IC trajectories and plasma biomarkers of two hallmarks of aging-chronic inflammation and mitochondrial dysfunction-in older adults. From the Multidomain Alzheimer Preventive Trial (MAPT), we included 1271 community-dwelling older people (mean [SD] age = 76.0 [4.3] years) with IC data over four years. Group-based multi-trajectory modeling was performed to identify clusters of the participants with similar longitudinal patterns across four IC domains: cognition, locomotion, psychology, and vitality. Five IC multi-trajectory groups were determined: low in all domains (8.4%), low locomotion (24.6%), low psychological domain (16.7%), robust (i.e., high in all domains except vitality; 28.3%), and robust with high vitality (22.0%). Compared to the best trajectory group (i.e., robust with high vitality), elevated levels of plasma interleukin-6 (IL-6), tumor necrosis factor receptor-1 (TNFR-1), and growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) were associated with a higher risk of belonging to the "low in all domains" group (IL-6: relative risk ratio (RRR) [95% CI] = 1.42 [1.07 - 1.88]; TNFR-1: RRR = 1.46 [1.09 - 1.96]; GDF-15: RRR = 1.99 [1.45 - 2.73]). Higher IL-6 and GDF-15 also increased the risk of being in the "low locomotion" group. GDF-15 outperformed other biomarkers by showing the strongest associations with IC trajectory groups. Our findings found that plasma biomarkers reflecting inflammation and mitochondrial impairment distinguished older people with multi-impaired IC trajectories from those with high-stable IC.

Patterns of inflammatory immune responses in patients with septic shock receiving vitamin C, hydrocortisone, and thiamine: clustering analysis in Korea.

Sepsis is characterized by heterogeneous immune responses that may evolve during the course of illness. This study identified inflammatory immune responses in septic patients receiving vitamin C, hydrocortisone, and thiamine. This was a single-center, post-hoc analysis of 95 patients with septic shock who received the vitamin C protocol. Blood samples were drawn on days 1-2, 3-4, and 6-8 after shock onset. Group-based multi-trajectory modeling was used to identify immune trajectory groups. The median age was 78 years (interquartile range, 70-84 years), and 56% were male. Clustering analysis identified group 1 (n=41), which was characterized by lower interleukin (IL)-6, tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α, and IL-10 levels, and these levels remained stationary or mildly increased until day 7. Conversely, group 2 (n=54) expressed initially higher IL-6, TNF-α, and IL-10 levels that decreased rapidly by day 4. There was a nonsignificant increase in lymphocyte count and a decrease in C-reactive protein level until day 7 in group 2. The intensive care unit mortality rate was significantly lower in group 2 (39.0% vs. 18.5%, P=0.03). Group 2 also had a significantly higher decrease in the mean (standard deviation) vasopressor dose (norepinephrine equivalent: -0.09±0.16 μg/kg/min vs. -0.23±0.31 μg/kg/min, P<0.001) and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (0±5 vs. -4±3, P=0.002) between days 1 and 4. There may be different subphenotypes in septic patients receiving the vitamin C protocol.

Trajectories of drug treatment and illicit opioid use in the AIDS Linked to the IntraVenous Experience cohort, 2014-2019.

Medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD) is an effective intervention to combat opioid use disorder and overdose, yet there is limited understanding of engagement in treatment over time in the community, contextualized by ongoing substance use. We aimed to identify concurrent trajectories of methadone prescriptions, buprenorphine prescriptions, and illicit opioid use among older adults with a history of injection drug use. We used data on 887 participants from the AIDS Linked to the IntraVenous Experience cohort, who were engaged in the study in 2013 and attended ≥1 visit during follow-up (2014-2019). Outcomes were self-reported MOUD prescription and illicit opioid use in the last 6 months. To identify concurrent trajectories in all 3 outcomes, we used group-based multi-trajectory modeling. We examined participant characteristics, including sociodemographics, HIV status, and other substance use, overall and by cluster. We identified 4 trajectory clusters: (1) no MOUD and no illicit opioid use (43%); (2) buprenorphine and some illicit opioid use (11%); (3) methadone and no illicit opioid use (28%); and (4) some methadone and illicit opioid use (18%). While prevalence of each outcome was stable across time, transitions on/off treatment or on/off illicit opioid use occurred, with the rate of transition varying by cluster. The rate of transition was highest in Cluster 3 (0.74/person-year) and lowest in Cluster 1 (0.18/person-year). We saw differences in participant characteristics by cluster, including that the buprenorphine cluster had the highest proportion of people with HIV and participants who identified as non-Hispanic Black. Most participants had discontinued illicit opioid use and were also not accessing MOUD. Trajectories defined by engagement with buprenorphine or methadone had distinct sociodemographic and behavioral characteristics, indicating that tailored interventions to expand access to both types of treatment are likely needed to reduce harms associated with untreated opioid use disorder.

Multi-trajectories of health-related quality of life and their associated factors in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma: A longitudinal study

BackgroundThe trajectories of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) during and after the treatment along with their associated factors are seldom investigated in longitudinal studies. This study aims to investigate the longitudinal trajectories of HRQoL over time and their associated factors in patients with newly diagnosed NPC. MethodsBetween July 2018 and September 2019, a total of 500 patients were finally involved in this study. HRQoL was measured at four time points, from before treatment to the follow-up period after treatment. Group-based multi-trajectory modeling was applied to identify trajectories of five HRQoL functioning domains during the longitudinal period. Multinomial logistic regression models were applied to investigate potential independent factors associated with the multi-trajectory groups. ResultsWe identified four distinct multi-trajectory groups, including the “initially lowest functioning” group (19.8%), the “initially lower functioning” group (20.8%), the “initially higher functioning” group (46.0%), and the “consistently highest functioning” group (13.4%). Patients who were older than 45 years or had T4 stage disease were more likely to be in the “initially lowest functioning” group, while those with EBV DNA ≥ 1500 copies/mL before the treatment were more likely to be in the “initially lowest functioning” or the “initially lower functioning” groups. ConclusionsWe report the presence of heterogeneity in HRQoL trajectories among patients with NPC, and found that older age, advanced T stage, and higher EBV DNA level before treatment were significantly associated with poor HRQoL trajectories. Further studies are needed to examine the generalizability of these identified HRQoL trajectories and their associations with psychosocial and survival outcomes.

Association of Multitrajectories of Lipid Indices With Premature Cardiovascular Disease: A Cohort Study.

Background The multitrajectory model can identify joint longitudinal patterns of different lipids simultaneously, which might help better understand the heterogeneous risk of premature cardiovascular disease (CVD) and facilitate targeted prevention programs. This study aimed to investigate the associations between multitrajectories of lipids with premature CVD. Methods and Results The study enrolled 78 526 participants from the Kailuan study, a prospective cohort study in Tangshan, China. Five distinct multitrajectories of triglyceride, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol over 6-year exposure were identified on the basis of Nagin's criteria, using group-based multitrajectory modeling. During a median follow-up of 6.75 years (507 645.94 person-years), 665 (0.85%) premature CVDs occurred. After adjustment for confounders, the highest risk of premature CVD was observed in group 4 (the highest and increasing triglyceride, optimal and decreasing LDL-C, low and decreasing high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) (hazard ratio [HR], 2.13 [95% CI, 1.36-3.32]), followed by group 5 (high and decreasing triglyceride, optimal and increasing LDL-C, low and decreasing high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) (HR, 2.07 [95% CI, 1.45-2.98]), and group 3 (optimal and increasing triglyceride, borderline high and increasing LDL-C, optimal and decreasing high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) (HR, 1.90 [95% CI, 1.32-2.73]). Conclusions Our results showed that the residual risk of premature CVD caused by increasing triglyceride levels remained high despite the fact that LDL-C levels were optimal or declining over time. These findings emphasized the importance of assessing the joint longitudinal patterns of lipids and undertaking potential interventions on triglyceride lowering to reduce the residual risk of premature CVD, even among individuals with optimal LDL-C levels.

Association between multimorbidity trajectories, healthcare utilization, and health expenditures among middle-aged and older adults: China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study

BackgroundTo identify the latent groups of multimorbidity trajectories among middle-aged and older adults and examine their associations with healthcare utilization and health expenditures. MethodsWe included adults aged ≥45 years who participated in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study from 2011 to 2015 and were without multimorbidities (<2 chronic conditions) at baseline. Multimorbidity trajectories underlying 13 chronic conditions were identified using group-based multi-trajectory modeling based on the latent dimensions. Healthcare utilization included outpatient care, inpatient care, and unmet healthcare needs. Health expenditures included healthcare costs and catastrophic health expenditures (CHE). Random-effects logistic regression, random-effects negative binomial regression, and generalized linear regression models were used to examine the association between multimorbidity trajectories, healthcare utilization, and health expenditures. ResultsOf the 5548 participants, 2407 developed multimorbidities during follow-up. Three trajectory groups were identified among those with new-onset multimorbidity according to the increasing dimensions of chronic diseases: “digestive-arthritic” (N = 1377, 57.21 %), “cardiometabolic/brain” (N = 834, 34.65 %), and “respiratory/digestive-arthritic” (N = 196, 8.14 %). All trajectory groups had a significantly increased risk of outpatient care, inpatient care, unmet healthcare needs, and higher healthcare costs than those without multimorbidities. Notably, participants in the “digestive-arthritic” trajectory group had a significantly increased risk of incurring CHE (OR = 1.70, 95%CI: 1.03–2.81). LimitationsChronic conditions were assessed using self-reported measures. ConclusionsThe growing burden of multimorbidity, especially multimorbidities of digestive and arthritic diseases, was associated with a significantly increased risk of healthcare utilization and health expenditures. The findings may help in planning future healthcare and managing multimorbidity more effectively.

Trajectories of parental harshness and exposure to community violence differentially predict externalizing and internalizing mental health problems in legal system-involved youth.

Youth with legal system involvement are especially likely to experience parental harshness (PH) and exposure to community violence (ETV), two common forms of life stress. However, most studies examine these stressors separately or collapse across them in ways that preclude examination of their co-occurrence. Consequently, it is unclear 1) how PH and ETV simultaneously fluctuate across development and 2) how these fluctuations predict future mental health problems in legal system-involved youth. We used group-based multi-trajectory modeling to estimate simultaneous trajectories of PH and ETV in 1027 legal system-involved youth and regression analyses to understand how trajectory membership predicted mental health problems three years later. Four trajectories of co-occurrence were identified (1: Low; 2: Moderate and Decreasing; 3: Moderate PH/High ETV; 4: High PH/Moderate ETV). Compared to the Low trajectory, all trajectories with PH/ETV elevations predicted violent crime and substance problems; trajectory 3 (Moderate PH/High ETV) predicted nonviolent crime and depression/anxiety symptoms; trajectory 4 (High PH/Moderate ETV) predicted depression diagnosis. These results elucidate how PH and ETV typically co-occur across adolescence for legal system-involved youth. They also reveal important commonalities and dissociations among types of mental health problems.

Trajectories of Psychopathic Traits, Anxiety, and Violence Exposure Differentially Predict Antisociality in Legal System-Involved Youth.

Psychopathic traits are associated with several forms of antisociality, including criminal offending, legal system involvement, and substance use. Some research suggests that primary (high psychopathic traits, low negative emotions) versus secondary (high psychopathic traits, high negative emotions and/or negative experiences and environments) variants confer different levels of risk for antisociality. However, research has not examined trajectories of co-occurring fluctuations in psychopathic traits, negative emotions, and negative experiences and environments or how trajectory membership relates to antisociality. We implemented group-based multi-trajectory modeling in a sample of 809 justice-involved male (n = 681) and female (n = 128) youth from the Pathways to Desistance Study to address these gaps. We identified four trajectories of co-occurring change in psychopathic traits, anxiety, and violence exposure spanning three years: Low (low levels of each factor); Moderate Psychopathic Traits, High Negative Emotions and Experiences (moderate-decreasing psychopathic traits and high-decreasing anxiety/violence exposure); Potential Primary Psychopathic Traits (elevated-decreasing psychopathic traits, moderate-decreasing anxiety, moderate-stable violence exposure); and High/Secondary Psychopathic Traits (high-stable psychopathic traits, elevated-stable anxiety, high-decreasing violence exposure). Compared to the Low trajectory, all trajectories predicted greater violent crime and substance use three and four years later. Additionally, compared to the Low trajectory, the Potential Primary Psychopathic Traits trajectory predicted more nonviolent offending three years later. Finally, the High/Secondary Psychopathic Traits trajectory showed the most persistent antisociality, predicting more nonviolent crime, higher substance dependence symptoms, and higher likelihood of arrest three and four years later. Youth with co-occurring high psychopathic traits, anxiety, and violence exposure appear most at risk for severe antisociality.

Multiple Trajectories of Body Mass Index and Waist Circumference and Their Associations with Hypertension and Blood Pressure in Chinese Adults from 1991 to 2018: A Prospective Study.

Body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) have been suggested to be involved in the etiology of hypertension. The present study aimed to determine multiple trajectories of BMI and WC, then examined their associations with the risks of hypertension and high blood pressure in Chinese adults. The study used China Health and Nutrition Survey data from 1991 to 2018. The sample included 9651 adults aged 18 years or older. We used group-based multi-trajectory modeling to identify trajectories. We estimated the relationships between the trajectories and the risks of hypertension with a Cox proportional hazards regression model and the trajectories' relationships with blood pressure levels with a generalized linear model. We identified four trajectories for each gender: low stable BMI, low increasing WC (group 1); medium increasing BMI, medium increasing WC (group 2); increasing BMI to overweight, increasing WC to central obesity (group 3), increasing BMI to obesity, increasing central obesity WC (group 4). Group 1 was the reference group. Among males in groups 2, 3, and 4, the adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of hypertension were 1.30 (1.15-1.48), 1.86 (1.58-2.18), and 2.60 (2.02-3.34), respectively. The systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) of males in group 4 increased by 11.90 mm of mercury (mmHg) and 7.75 mmHg, respectively. Among females in groups 2, 3, and 4, the HR and 95% CI of hypertension were 1.35 (1.18-1.54), 1.92 (1.62-2.26), and 2.37 (1.85-3.03), respectively. The SBP and DBP of females in group 4 increased by 8.84 mmHg and 5.79 mmHg, respectively. These data indicated that increases in BMI and WC were associated with unfavorable hypertension risks. Attention to both BMI and WC trajectories has the potential to prevent hypertension.

Multi-Trajectories of Intrinsic Capacity Decline and Their Impact on Age-Related Outcomes: A 20-Year National Longitudinal Cohort Study.

The existence of intrinsic capacity (IC) subtypes and their distinct impacts on age-related outcomes remain unexplored. This study sought to investigate IC impairment trajectories across domains and their associations with the risk of age-related outcomes, including falls, functional limitations, reduced quality of life (QoL) and mortality at 4- and 8-year follow-ups. The study sample comprised 1,782 older adults residing in the community from the Taiwan Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TLSA). Utilizing group-based multitrajectory modeling, distinct subtypes of IC decline trajectories across various domains were identified. Cox proportional hazard models and multivariable logistic regression analyses were employed to assess the associations between the identified subtypes and age-related outcomes. We identified four subtypes of IC decline: robust with mild decline (n=902), hearing loss with cognitive decline (n=197), physio-cognitive decline (PCD) with depression (n=373), and severe IC decline (n=310). Over the 4-year study period, compared to the robust with mild decline group, hearing loss with cognitive decline group exhibited a significantly higher risk of diminished QoL (OR=2.53 [1.66-3.86], p>0.01), whereas those in the PCD with depression group experienced an elevated risk of falls (OR=1.62 [1.18-2.23], p>0.01), as well as functional limitation (OR=2.61 [1.81-3.75], p>.01). Individuals in the severe IC decline group faced a substantially increased risk of all outcomes of interest. Distinct subtypes of IC decline across different domains have varying impacts on age-related outcomes, highlighting the need for a personalized approach to promote healthy ageing at the population level, while further investigation into specific pathophysiological mechanisms is warranted as well.

Grip strength, gait speed, and trajectories of cognitive function in community-dwelling older adults: A prospective study.

This study investigated whether grip strength and gait speed predict cognitive aging trajectories and examined potential sex-specific associations. Community-dwelling older adults (n=19,114) were followed for up to 7 years, with regular assessment of global function, episodic memory, psychomotor speed, and executive function. Group-based multi-trajectory modeling identified joint cognitive trajectories. Multinomial logistic regression examined the association of grip strength and gait speed at baseline with cognitive trajectories. High performers (14.3%, n=2298) and low performers (4.0%, n=642) were compared to the average performers (21.8%, n=3492). Grip strength and gait speed were positively associated with high performance and negatively with low performance (P-values<0.01). The association between grip strength and high performance was stronger in women (interaction P<0.001), while gait speed was a stronger predictor of low performance in men (interaction P<0.05). Grip strength and gait speed are associated with cognitive trajectories in older age, but with sex differences. There is inter-individual variability in late-life cognitive trajectories.Grip strength and gait speed predicted cognitive trajectories in older age.However, sex-specific associations were identified.In women, grip strength strongly predicted high, compared to average, trajectory.In men, gait speed was a stronger predictor of low cognitive performance trajectory.

Multi-trajectory analysis of changes in physical activity and body mass index in relation to retirement: Finnish Retirement and Aging study.

Physical activity and body mass index (BMI) have been reported to change around retirement. The objective was to examine the concurrent changes in physical activity and BMI around retirement, which have not been studied before. In addition, the associations of different demographic characteristics with these changes were examined. The prospective cohort study consisted of 3,351 participants in the ongoing Finnish Retirement and Ageing Study (FIREA). Repeated postal survey, including questions on physical activity and body weight and height, was conducted once a year up to five times before and after the retirement transition, the mean follow-up time being 3.6 years (SD 0.7). Group-based multi-trajectory modeling was used to identify several clusters with dissimilar concurrent changes in physical activity and BMI within the studied cohort. Of the participants, 83% were women. The mean age at the last wave before retirement was 63.3 (SD 1.4) years. Four clusters with different trajectories of physical activity and BMI were identified. BMI remained stable around retirement transition in all four clusters, varying from normal weight to class II obesity. The association of BMI trajectories with physical activity levels were inverse, however, each activity trajectory showed a temporary increase during the retirement transition. Retirement seems to have more effect on physical activity than BMI, showing a temporary increase in physical activity at the time of retirement.

Fetal growth trajectories of babies born large-for-gestational age in the LIFECODES Fetal Growth Study

Babies born large-for-gestational age have an increased risk of adverse health outcomes, including birth injuries, childhood obesity, and cardiometabolic disorders. However, little work has been done to characterize patterns of fetal growth among large-for-gestational age births, which may further elucidate high- and low-risk subgroups. This study aimed to identify subgroups of large-for-gestational age births based on trajectories of fetal growth derived from prenatal ultrasound measurements and explore differences in sociodemographic, pregnancy, and birth outcome characteristics across subgroups. This study identified and described trajectories of fetal growth among large-for-gestational age births (n=235) in the LIFECODES Fetal Growth Study. Ultrasound measurements of fetal growth in middle to late pregnancy were abstracted from health records. Group-based multi-trajectory modeling was applied to measurements of head circumference, abdominal circumference, and femur length z-scores to identify multivariate trajectories of fetal growth. Moreover, sociodemographic variables, pregnancy characteristics, and birth outcomes based on trajectory membership were summarized. This study identified 4 multivariate trajectories of fetal growth among large-for-gestational age births: catch-up growth (n=28), proportional abdominal circumference-to-femur length growth (n=67), disproportional abdominal circumference-to-femur length growth (n=96), and consistently large (n=44). Fetuses in the "catch-up growth" group exhibited small relative sizes in midpregnancy (ie, below average head circumference, abdominal circumference, and femur length z-scores) and large relative sizes in late pregnancy. Growth among these births was driven by increases in relative abdominal circumference and head circumference sizes. Participants who delivered births assigned to this group were less likely to have normal glucose control (40% vs 65%-75%) and more likely to have pregestational diabetes mellitus (36% vs 10%-17%) than other large-for-gestational age subgroups. In addition, the babies in this trajectory group were more likely to have macrosomia (86% vs 67%-73%) and to be admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit (32% vs 14%-21%) than other large-for-gestational age subgroups. In contrast, babies in the "consistently large" group had the largest relative size for all growth parameters throughout gestation and experienced a lower risk of adverse birth outcomes than other large-for-gestational age subgroups. This study characterized several trajectories of fetal growth among large-for-gestational age births, which were related to different pregnancy characteristics and the distribution of adverse birth outcomes. Although the number of individuals within some trajectories was small, a subgroup that exhibited a catch-up growth phenotype during gestation was identified, which may be uniquely associated with exposure to pregestational diabetes mellitus and a higher risk of admission to the neonatal intensive care unit. These results have highlighted that the risk of adverse outcomes may not be evenly distributed across all large-for-gestational age births.

Association between multimorbidity trajectories and incident disability among mid to older age adults: China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study

BackgroundAlthough multimorbidity is a risk factor for disability, the relationship between the accumulative patterns of multimorbidity and disability remains poorly understood. The objective of this study was to identify the latent groups of multimorbidity trajectories among mid to older age adults and to examine their associations with incident disability.MethodsWe included 5,548 participants aged ≥ 45 years who participated in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study from 2011 to 2018 and had no multimorbidity (≥ 2 chronic conditions) at baseline. The group-based multi-trajectory modeling was used to identify distinct trajectory groups of multimorbidity based on the latent dimensions underlying 13 chronic conditions. The association between multimorbidity trajectories and incident disability was analyzed using the generalized estimating equation model adjusting for potential confounders.ResultsOf the 5,548 participants included in the current analysis, 2,407 (43.39%) developed multimorbidity during the follow-up. Among participants with new-onset multimorbidity, four trajectory groups were identified according to the combination of newly diagnosed diseases: “Cardiometabolic” (N = 821, 34.11%), “Digestive-arthritic” (N = 753, 31.28%), “Cardiometabolic/Brain” (N = 618, 25.68%), and “Respiratory” (N = 215, 8.93%). Compared to participants who did not develop multimorbidity, the risk of incident disability was most significantly increased in the “Cardiometabolic/Brain” trajectory group (OR = 2.05, 95% CI: 1.55–2.70), followed by the “Cardiometabolic” (OR = 1.96, 95% CI: 1.52 –2.53) and “Digestive-arthritic” (OR = 1.70, 95% CI: 1.31–2.20) trajectory groups.ConclusionsThe growing burden of multimorbidity, especially the comorbid of cardiometabolic and brain diseases, may be associated with a significantly increased risk of disability for mid to older age adults. These findings improve our understanding of multimorbidity patterns that affect the independence of living and inform the development of strategies for the primary prevention of disability.