Ground Deposition Of 137Cs Research Articles

The Design of a Parameterization Scheme for 137Cs Based on the WRF-Chem Model and Its Application in Simulating the Fukushima Nuclear Accident

Based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) atmospheric chemistry model, a parameterization scheme for the radioactive isotope caesium (137Cs), considering processes such as advection, turbulent diffusion, dry deposition, and wet deposition, was constructed, enabling the spatial distribution simulation of the concentration and deposition of 137Cs. The experimental simulation studies were carried out during the high emission period of the Fukushima nuclear accident (from 11 to 17 March 2011). Two sets of comparison experiments, with or without deposition, were designed, the effects of wind field and precipitation on the spatial transport and ground deposition of 137Cs were analyzed, and the influence of wind field and precipitation on 137Cs vertical transport was analyzed in detail. The results indicate that the model can accurately simulate the meteorological and 137Cs variables. On 15 March, 137Cs dispersed towards the Kanto Plain in Japan under the influence of northeastern winds. In comparison to the experiment without deposition, the concentration of 137Cs in the Fukushima area decreased by approximately 286 Bq·m−3 in the deposition experiment. Under the influence of updrafts in the non-deposition experiment, a 137Cs cloud spread upward to a maximum height of 6 km, whereas in the deposition experiment, the highest dispersion of the 137Cs cloud only reach a height of 4 km. Affected by the wind field, dry deposition is mainly distributed in Fukushima, the Kanto Plain, and their eastern ocean areas, with a maximum dry deposition of 5004.5 kBq·m−2. Wet deposition is mainly influenced by the wind field and precipitation, distributed in the surrounding areas of Fukushima, with a maximum wet deposition of 725.3 kBq·m−2. The single-station test results from the deposition experiment were better than those for the non-deposition experiment: the percentage deviations of the Tokyo, Chiba, Maebashi, and Naraha stations decreased by 61%, 69%, 46%, and 51%, respectively, and the percentage root mean square error decreased by 46%, 25%, 38%, and 48%, respectively.

Restoring areas after a radioactive fallout: A multidisciplinary study on decontamination

Land remediation is an important part of restoration measures after a radioactive fallout containing long-lived fission products such as 137Cs. In this multidisciplinary study, we focused on three main issues related to remediation of contaminated urban areas. First, we assessed how much decontamination contributes to reducing resident radiation exposure and how much this reduction depends on the timing of implemented measures. Second, we calculated direct and indirect costs of decontamination in an industrialized country such as Sweden. Finally, in a survey study, we considered reactions of Swedish citizens to being given the hypothetical option of moving to a site decontaminated after radioactive fallout and how this predicted response might influence the design of contingency plans.The main findings are that clean-up operations must be done within the first few years after a fallout to contribute significantly to reducing residual dose. If conducted within 1–2 years, large-scale decontamination can, on average, avert 20–200 manSv per km2 residential area and unit ground deposition of 137Cs (1 MBq). The estimated direct costs (in 2020 purchasing power) would amount to 100 million Euro per km2 decontaminated residential area (comparable to Japanese estimates after the Fukushima accident), generating 39,000 m3 of radioactive waste on average, mainly in the form of 137Cs-contaminated topsoil. In our survey study of 2291 Swedish respondents about their willingness to return to decontaminated homes, women, families with resident children, and high-income earners exhibited more skepticism about returning, even if authorities were to deem it safe. The demographic pattern in attitudes was similar to that found among evacuees in the Fukushima prefecture after 2011.We conclude that predefined ranges of measured 137Cs ground deposition can be used as guidance for rescue leaders in the early post-accident phase in long-term planning for affected areas. This planning should include timing and intensity of decontamination measures, duration of evacuation, and risk communication to citizens. Because some citizens expressed both high risk perception and risk aversion, however, timely and dialogic communication is unlikely to limit a shift after the incident to an older and more male-dominated population composition. There is a risk that those who can afford to do so will move away, whereas people whose wealth is locked in property (houses or businesses) will feel stuck. Perceptions of unfairness may fray the social fabric and complicate resettlement, which in some cases may mean inefficient outlay of decontamination costs. We believe that the issue of monetary compensation to affected residents requires priority in future work.

Averting cumulative lifetime attributable risk (LAR) of cancer by decontamination of residential areas affected by a large-scale nuclear power plant fallout: time aspects of radiological benefits for newborns and adults

The averted cumulative lifetime attributable risk (LAR), the residual dose and highest ground deposition of 137Cs complying with a reference dose level of 20 mSv yr−1 to an individual returning after one year to an area contaminated by unfiltered releases of fission products from a nuclear power plant (NPP) were evaluated by applying an existing exposure model designed to compute age- and gender-dependent time-integrated LAR. The model was applied to four types of nuclear fallout scenarios, partly based on data from the Chernobyl and Fukushima releases and from theoretical source terms from Swedish NPPs. For rapid decontamination measures that achieve a 50% relative reduction in external dose rate within 1 year, compliance with the reference level 20 mSv yr−1 can be attained for an initial 137Cs ground deposition of up to 2 MBq m−2 with relaxed food restrictions. This compliance can be attained at even higher ground deposition (up to 4.5 MBq m−2) if using the strict food restrictions employed in Japan after 2011. Considering longer than 1 year return times it was also found that the benefit of implementing decontamination decreases rapidly with time (2–3 years half-time), especially if the fallout has a high initial 134Cs to 137Cs activity ratio and if the ecological half-time of the external dose rate is short (<5 years). Depending on fallout scenario the averted cumulative LAR for newborn girls by decontamination that is achieved after 5 years is only between 6% and 11% of that obtained by evacuation alone during the same time, indicating a rather limited radiological benefit of decontamination if delayed more than a few years. We conclude that decision makers and emergency response planners need to consider that protracted decontamination measures may have limited radiological benefit compared with evacuation in terms of averted future cancer cases, albeit it may have other societal benefits.

Introduction of a method to calculate cumulative age- and gender-specific lifetime attributable risk (LAR) of cancer in populations after a large-scale nuclear power plant accident.

The effect of age and gender in risk estimates related to long-term residence in areas contaminated by nuclear power plant fallout was evaluated by applying the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) concept to an existing exposure model that was previously used for cumulative effective dose estimates. In this study, we investigated the influence of age distribution on the number of cancer cases by applying five different age distributions from nuclear power–producing countries (India, Japan, South Korea, and the United States), and Egypt because of intentions to develop nuclear power. The model was also used to estimate the effective dose and gender-specific LAR as a function of time after fallout for the offspring of the population living in 137Cs fallout areas. The principal findings of this study are that the LAR of cancer incidence (excluding non-fatal skin cancers) over 70 y is about 4.5 times higher for newborn females (5.4% per MBq m-2 of initial 137Cs ground deposition) than the corresponding values for 30 y old women (1.2% per MBq m-2 137Cs deposition). The cumulative LAR for newborn males is more than 3 times higher (3.2% versus 1.0% per MBq m-2 137Cs deposition). The model predicts a generally higher LAR for women until 50 y of age, after which the gender difference converges. Furthermore, the detriment for newborns in the fallout areas initially decreases rapidly (about threefold during the first decade) and then decreases gradually with an approximate half-time of 10–12 y after the first decade. The age distribution of the exposed cohort has a decisive impact on the average risk estimates, and in our model, these are up to about 65% higher in countries with high birth rates compared to low birth rates. This trend implies larger average lifetime attributable risks in countries with a highly proportional younger population. In conclusion, the large dispersion (up to a factor of 4 between newborns and 30 y olds) in the lifetime detriment per unit ground deposition of 137Cs over gender and age in connection with accidental nuclear releases justifies the effort in developing risk models that account for the higher radiation sensitivity in younger populations.

Modelling the effective dose to a population from fallout after a nuclear power plant accident—A scenario-based study with mitigating actions

The radiological consequences of a nuclear power plant (NPP) accident, resulting in the release of radionuclides to the environment, will depend largely on the mitigating actions instigated shortly after the accident. It is therefore important to make predictions of the radiation dose to the affected population, from external as well as internal exposure, soon after an accident, despite the fact that data are scarce. The aim of this study was to develop a model for the prediction of the cumulative effective dose up to 84 years of age based on the ground deposition of 137Cs that is determined soon after fallout. The model accounts for different assumptions regarding external and internal dose contributions, and the model parameters in this study were chosen to reflect various mitigating actions. Furthermore, the relative importance of these parameters was determined by sensitivity analysis. To the best of our knowledge, this model is unique as it allows quantification of both the external and the internal effective dose using only a fallout map of 137Cs after a nuclear power plant accident. The cumulative effective dose over a period of 50 years following the accident per unit 137Cs deposited was found to range from 0.14 mSv/kBq m-2 to 1.5 mSv/kBq m-2, depending on the mitigating actions undertaken. According to the sensitivity analysis, the most important parameters governing the cumulative effective dose to various adult populations during 50 years after the fallout appear to be: the correlation factor between the local areal deposition of 137Cs and the maximum initial ambient dose rate; the maximum transfer from regional average fallout on the ground to body burden; the local areal deposition of 137Cs; and the regional average 137Cs deposition. Therefore, it is important that mapping of local 137Cs deposition is carried out immediately after fallout from a nuclear power plant accident, followed by calculations of radiation doses for different scenarios using well-known parameters, in order to identify the most efficient mitigation strategies. Given this 137Cs mapping, we believe our model is a valuable tool for long-term radiological assessment in the early phase after NPP accidents.

Estimated Lifetime Effective Dose to Hunters and their Families in Sweden after the Chernobyl Accident in 1986 – A Pilot Study

Background/Aim: Hunters and their families, with an over average consumption of food from the forest ecosystem, belong to the most exposed subpopulations in Sweden after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986. Using registry data and results from whole-body measurements algorithms were developed to calculate lifetime effective doses and collective doses to hunters. Methods: Ten hunters and their family members were randomly selected from each of the three counties with the highest fallout in Sweden (Västernorrland, Uppsala, Gävleborg) using the register for hunting weapons from the Police Authority in 1985. Statistics Sweden matched these individuals (n=85), using dwelling coordinates, onto the digital map produced by the Swedish Radiation Safety Authority after aerial measurements of ground deposition of 137Cs (kBq m-2). Internal effective doses were estimated with aggregated transfer factors from ground deposition to in-vivo body concentration for 134Cs and 137Cs in hunters (Bq kg-1). External effective doses were also calculated on these dwelling coordinates for 134Cs, 137Cs and short-lived nuclides, respectively. Annual effective doses for external and internal doses were then cumulated up to a life expectancy of 80 years for men and 84 years for women, respectively. Results: The total lifetime effective doses, from the Chernobyl fallout, to the members of the hunter families in this cohort were on average 8.0 mSv in Västernorrland, 4.5 mSv in Uppsala and 3.9 mSv in Gävleborg. The effective dose to males were about 40% higher than in females. In all counties the internal dose was about 75% of the total lifetime effective dose. The collective dose for all hunters with family members (n=44,000 in total) in these three counties could be approximated at about 250 manSv. Conclusions: This pilot study shows it is possible to use register data to develop algorithms for calculating life-time effective dose commitments for hunters.

Modelling the external radiation exposure from the Chernobyl fallout using data from the Swedish municipality measurement system

In connection with the Chernobyl fallout and the subsequent deposition of radionuclides in Sweden, Swedish municipalities launched a measurement program to monitor the external radiation exposure. This program encompasses measurements of the ambient dose equivalent rate 1 m above ground at selected locations, and repeats those measurements at the same locations at 7-month intervals. Measurement data compiled from the seven locations with the highest deposition were combined with data from aerial surveys since May 1986 of ground deposition of 137Cs, high-resolution gamma spectrometry performed at four locations in May 1986, and measurements from fixed continuous air gamma rate monitoring stations from 28 April to 15 May 1986. Based on these datasets, a model of the time pattern of the external dose rate in terms of ambient dose equivalent rate from the Chernobyl fallout was developed. The decrease in the ambient dose equivalent rate could, on average, be described by a four-component exponential decay function with effective half-times of 6.8 ± 0.3 d, 104 ± 26 d, 1.0 ± 0.02 y and 5.5 ± 0.09 y, respectively. The predominant contributions to the external dose rate in the first month were from short-lived fission products superseded by 134Cs and then 137Cs. Integrated over 70 y and using extrapolation of the curve fits, our model predicts that 137Cs contributes about 60% and 134Cs contributes about 30% of the external effective dose at these seven locations. The projected time-integrated 70 y external effective dose to an unshielded person from all nuclides per unit total activity deposition of 137Cs is estimated to be 0.29 ± 0.0.08 mSv/(kBq m−2). These results are in agreement with those found in Chernobyl contaminated Russian forest areas, and emphasize the usefulness of maintaining a long-term and regular measurement program in contaminated areas.

137Cs in a raised bog in central Sweden

The vertical distribution of 137Cs activity in peat soil profiles and 137Cs activity concentration in plants of various species was studied in samples collected at two sites on a raised bog in central Sweden. One site (open bog) was in an area with no trees and only a few sparsely growing plant species, while the other (low pine) was less than 100 m from the open bog site and had slowly growing Scots pine, a field layer dominated by some ericaceous plants and ground well-covered by plants. The plant samples were collected in 2004–2007 and were compared with samples collected in 1989 from the same open bog and low pine sites. Ground deposition of 137Cs in 2005 was similar at both sites, 23 000 Bq m −2. In the open bog peat profile it seems to be an upward transport of caesium since a clear peak of 137Cs activity was found in the uppermost 1–4 cm of Sphagnum layers, whereas at the low pine site 137Cs was mainly found in deeper (10–12 cm) layers. The migration rate was 0.57 cm yr −1 at the open bog site and the migration centre of 137Cs was at a depth of 10.7, while the rate at the low pine site was 0.78 cm yr −1 and the migration centre was at 14.9 cm. Heather ( Calluna vulgaris) was the plant species with the highest 137Cs activity concentrations at both sites, 43.5 k Bq −1 DM in 1989 decreasing to 20.4 in 2004–2007 on open bog and 22.3 k Bq kg −1 DM in 1989 decreasing to 11.2 k Bq −1 DM by the period 2004–2007 on the low pine site. 137Cs transfer factors in plants varied between 0.88 and 1.35 on the open bog and between 0.48 and 0.69 m 2 kg −1 DM at the low pine site.

Reconstruction of the inhalation dose in the 30-km zone after the Chernobyl accident.

Due to lack of measurements of activity concentrations in air, the assessment of the inhalation dose of the population evacuated from the 30-km zone after the Chernobyl accident is not possible from continuous filter measurements. Since the evaluation of the inhalation dose in each settlement of the zone is of great interest for epidemiological purposes, an approach was chosen that utilizes the available data on ground deposition of 137Cs, a recently performed best estimate of the radionuclide vector and its spatial distribution as well as the radionuclide dependent deposition velocity. The derived inhalation dose values in the 30-km zone range between 3 mSv to 150 mSv effective dose for adults depending on the distance to the reactor site and the day of evacuation. For 1-y-old infants the values range between 10 to 700 mSv. In Chernobyl town, an effective inhalation dose of 25 mSv until evacuation day was assessed. Thyroid doses due to inhalation ranged from 0.02 to 1 Sv for adults, for 1-y-old infants from 0.02 to 6 Sv. The inhalation dose in each settlement of the 30-km zone is approximately 8-13 times higher than the external exposure in each settlement if evacuation of the settlement occurred at an early stage. For settlements with evacuation at a later stage (day 10 or later) the inhalation dose was about 50-70% higher than the external dose. The dominant contribution to the effective inhalation dose comes from 131I (about 40%) and tellurium and rubidium isotopes (about 20-30%). Despite high zirconium and cerium ground depositions, zirconium and cerium isotopes contribute rather little to the inhalation dose which is mainly due to the great particle sizes to which they are attached. The relative contribution of short-lived radionuclides is, despite higher activities than at greater distances, less than 5%.

Migration of radiocaesium in Swedish soil profiles after the Chernobyl accident, 1987–1995

The study site comprises temporary and permanent grassland in areas in central and northern Sweden which were strongly affected by the Chernobyl fallout in 1986. The aim of the study was to investigate the vertical migration of radiocaesium from 1987 to 1995 in undisturbed soil profiles under field conditions, as related to soil type and texture. The sampled sites differ in soil types and textures, i.e. six cultivated or semi-natural mineral soils (Dystrochrept, Haploboroll, Udorthents, Cryorthent and Haplocryod) and two cultivated organic soils (Sulfihemists). The ground deposition of 137Cs ranged from 14 to 184 kBq m -2 (average 82). 137Cs-activities were measured in cm-sliced, 25-cm-deep soil cores and in soil horizons of the entire soil profiles down to 0.7–1.0 m depth. The soil cores were collected on two or three occasions between 1987 and 1995, and migration rates were calculated based on the median depths. Grass samples were taken from the same locations to measure the amount of 137Cs transferred from soil to grass. After eight years, most (50–92%) of the 137Cs fallout was still present in the upper 5 cm (median depth 2.3–5.1 cm), although considerable amounts had migrated to deeper soil layers. Downward migration was most pronounced in the organic soils and in the podzol where 137Cs was found to about 50 cm depth. Migration rates were in the range of 0.5–1.0 cm year -1 for the first year and thereafter 0.2–0.6 cm year -1. The transfer of 137Cs to grass was highest in two gravely sandy loam soils in the mountain region, intermediate in two organic soils, and lowest in soils from the river and coastal areas.

Chernobyl-Related Thyroid Cancer in Children of Belarus: A Case-Control Study

The accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant on April 26, 1986, released approximately 2 EBq of 131I and other radioiodine isotopes that heavily contaminated southern Belarus. An increase in thyroid cancer reported in 1992 and attributed to the Chernobyl accident was challenged as possibly the result of intensive screening. We began a case-control study to test the hypothesis that the Chernobyl accident caused the increase in thyroid cancer. Records of childhood thyroid cancer in the national therapy centers in Minsk in 1992 yielded 107 individuals with confirmed pathology diagnoses and available for interview. Pathways to diagnosis were (1) routine endocrinological screening in 63, (2) presentation with enlarged or nodular thyroid in 25 and (3) an incidental finding in 19. Two sets of controls were chosen, one matched on pathway to diagnosis, the other representing the area of heavy fallout, both matched on age, sex and rural/urban residence in 1986. The 131I dose to the thyroid was estimated from ground deposition of 137Cs, ground deposition of 131I, a data bank of 1986 thyroid radiation measurements, questionnaires and interviews. Highly significant differences were observed between cases and controls (both sets) with respect to dose. The differences persisted within pathway to diagnosis, gender, age and year of diagnosis, and level of iodine in the soil, and were most marked in the southern portion of the Gomel region. The case-control comparisons indicate a strong relationship between thyroid cancer and estimated radiation dose from the Chernobyl accident.

Radiocaesium uptake in moose in relation to home range and habitat composition

Nineteen radio-collared moose Alces alces) were used to determine if the ground deposition of 137Cs and habitat types in their home range affected 137Cs activity concentration in their muscle tissue. In addition, 119 non-radio-collared moose from a larger area of northern Sweden were used to further test the validity of this model. In the summer home range (end of May until September) no significant correlation was found between the landscape composition or ground deposition and the 137Cs levels in moose in September. However the habitat types in the area where the moose were killed did show a significant correlation with the 137Cs activity concentration in the animals. The frequencies of mire and farmland were the two habitats that were most strongly correlated with the 137Cs levels in the moose. The more mire, the higher the concentrations found in moose, and the more farmland, the lower the concentrations. The 119 animals from the larger area showed the strongest correlation of 137Cs between ground deposition and concentration in moose, but even here the model predicting 137Cs activity concentration in moose muscle was improved by including the proportion of farmland and mire.

Radiocaesium from Chernobyl in Swedish Moose

The 137Cs activity concentrations of muscle samples taken from moose collected from the central part of Sweden were determined. Pre-Chernobyl samples had a mean 137Cs activity concentration of 23 Bq kg −1. Samples collected during the hunting season (mainly October) had, on average, 760 Bq kg −1 in 1986 and 664 Bq kg −1 in 1987. No significant differences between various muscles (neck, thigh and leg) could be seen. The correlation between ground deposition of 137Cs and activity concentration in moose muscle was significant. There seems, however, to be other important parameters. One is the percentage of farmland within the home range of the moose—less farmland gives higher 137Cs activity concentrations.

The Chernobyl accident. Transport of radionuclides to man living in northern Sweden.

The pathways of 131I, 134Cs and 137Cs from the Chernobyl fallout to man were followed in the county of Västerbotten, Sweden. Reported airplane measurements had shown that the ground deposition of 137Cs was 3-40 kBq/m2 with hot spots with more than 80 kBq/m2. Multiplying with a factor of 0.6 gave the 134Cs deposition and an approximate factor of 20 the 131I ground deposition. The effective dose equivalent from 131I became low, less than 0.1 mSv, as the cows were stabled. The 137Cs activity concentration in different types of food was measured in approximately 8,000 samples. The most important sources of Cs intake in man were lake fish, elk (European moose) and reindeer. Variations with time was studied in detail for four types of lake fish. Whole-body measurements on more than 250 persons showed that no group of people on average received more than 1 mSv from food during the first year after the Chernobyl accident. However, single persons eating large amounts of reindeer meat received up to 2.5 mSv. People buying all their food in ordinary provision-shops got less than 0.1 mSv from the food during the first year. The present level of 90Sr activity concentration in man will only give an effective dose equivalent of 0.004 mSv/year, most of it being a result of the atmospheric nuclear bomb tests.