Modeling Of Ground Deformation Research Articles

Time-Varying GPS Displacement Network Modeling by Sequential Monte Carlo.

Geodetic observations through high-rate GPS time-series data allow the precise modeling of slow ground deformation at the millimeter level. However, significant attention has been devoted to utilizing these data for various earth science applications, including to determine crustal velocity fields and to detect significant displacement from earthquakes. The relationships inherent in these GPS displacement observations have not been fully explored. This study employs the sequential Monte Carlo method, specifically particle filtering (PF), to develop a time-varying analysis of the relationships among GPS displacement time-series within a network, with the aim of uncovering network dynamics. Additionally, we introduce a proposed graph representation to enhance the understanding of these relationships. Using the 1-Hz GEONET GNSS network data of the Tohoku-Oki Mw9.0 2011 as a demonstration, the results demonstrate successful parameter tracking that clarifies the observations' underlying dynamics. These findings have potential applications in detecting anomalous displacements in the future.

Ground Deformation and Source Fault Model of the Mw 5.7 Xegar (Tibetan Plateau) 2020 Earthquake, Based on InSAR Observation

Ground Deformation and Source Fault Model of the Mw 5.7 Xegar (Tibetan Plateau) 2020 Earthquake, Based on InSAR Observation

Magnitudes and patterns of large-scale permafrost ground deformation revealed by Sentinel-1 InSAR on the central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) undergoes significant thawing and degradation, which affects the hydrological processes, ecosystems and infrastructure stability. The ground deformation, a key indicator of permafrost degradation, can be quantified via geodetic observations, especially using multi-temporal InSAR techniques. The previous InSAR studies, however, either rely on data-driven models or Stefan-equation-based models, which are both lacking of consideration of the spatial-temporal variations of freeze-thaw processes. Furthermore, the magnitudes and patterns of the permafrost-related ground deformation over large scales (e.g., 1×105km2 or larger) is still insufficiently quantified or poorly understood. In this study, to account for the spatial heterogeneity of freeze-thaw processes, we develop a permafrost-tailored InSAR approach by incorporating a MODIS-land-surface-temperature-integrated ground deformation model to reconstruct the seasonal and long-term deformation. Utilizing the approach to Sentinel-1 SAR images on the vast regions of about 140,000km2 of the central QTP during 2014–2019, we observe widespread seasonal deformation up to about 80mm with a mean value of about 10mm and linear subsidence up to 20mm/year. We apply the geographical detector to determine the controlling factors on the permafrost-related deformation. We find that the slope angle is the primary controller on the seasonal deformation: strong magnitudes and variations of seasonal deformation are most pronounced in flat or gentle-slope regions. The aspect angle, vegetation and soil bulk density exhibit a certain correlation with seasonal deformation as well. Meanwhile, we find that a linear subsidence is higher in the regions with high ground ice content and warm permafrost. It indicates that warm and ice-rich permafrost regions are more vulnerable to extensive long-term subsidence. We also observe that the cold permafrost regions experience lower linear subsidence even with high ground ice content, which indicate ice loss is limited. Thus, we infer that under continuously warming, the transition from cold permafrost to warm permafrost may lead to more extensive ground ice melting. Moreover, the strong subsidence/uplift signals surrounding some lakes suggesting that the change of local hydrological conditions may induce localized permafrost degradation/aggradation. Our study demonstrates the capability of the permafrost-tailored InSAR approach to quantify the permafrost freeze-thaw dynamics as well as their spatial-temporal patterns over large scales in vast permafrost areas.

Ground Deformation Modelling of the 2020 Mw6.9 Samos Earthquake (Greece) Based on InSAR and GNSS Data

Modelling of combined Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data was performed to characterize the source of the Mw6.9 earthquake that occurred to the north of Samos Island (Aegean Sea) on 30 October 2020. Pre-seismic analysis revealed an NNE–SSW extensional regime with normal faults along an E–W direction. Co-seismic analysis showed opening of the epicentral region with horizontal and vertical displacements of ~350 mm and ~90 mm, respectively. Line-of-sight (LOS) interferometric vectors were geodetically corrected using the GNSS data and decomposed into E–W and vertical displacement components. Compiled interferometric maps reveal that relatively large ground displacements had occurred in the western part of Samos but had attenuated towards the eastern and southern parts. Alternating motions occurred along and across the main geotectonic units of the island. The best-fit fault model has a two-segment listric fault plane (average slip 1.76 m) of normal type that lies adjacent to the northern coastline of Samos. This fault plane is 35 km long, extends to 15 km depth, and dips to the north at 60° and 40° angles for the upper and lower parts, respectively. A predominant dip-slip component and a substantial lateral one were modelled.

Three-Dimensional Numerical Modeling of Ground Deformation during Shield Tunneling Considering Principal Stress Rotation

In the process of tunnel excavation, the change of soil stress field will inevitably lead to principal stress axis rotation, which is a common but easily ignored phenomenon in shield tunneling. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the effect of principal stress rotation in the process of shield tunneling. In this paper, the stress field variation and ground surface deformation of cohesive soil are investigated by a numerical method via the strength parameter variation. A UMAT (user material) subroutine is programmed and embedding into the finite-element software to realize the strength parameter variation that is caused by the principal stress direction rotation during the whole tunneling process. The ground deformation considering the variation of the principal stress direction is compared with that when the variation of the principal stress direction is not considered. The simulation results show that the principal stress direction of the soil changes significantly during the tunnel excavation, and the principal stress direction of the soil within 1.5D (D = tunnel diameter) away from the tunnel axis and all the soil above the tunnel changes obviously. In addition, during the excavation, the rotation angle of the principal stress for each point in the soil gradually increases; in the direction perpendicular to the tunnel axis, the rotation angle of the principal stress increases first and then decreases from the tunnel axis to the edge of the model; when the direction of the principal stress changes, the strength parameters of the soil are modified, the ground deformation of which is larger than that before correction.

The 2018–2019 seismo-volcanic crisis east of Mayotte, Comoros islands: seismicity and ground deformation markers of an exceptional submarine eruption

SUMMARYOn 10 May 2018, an unprecedented long and intense seismic crisis started offshore, east of Mayotte, the easternmost of the Comoros volcanic islands. The population felt hundreds of events. Over the course of 1 yr, 32 earthquakes with magnitude greater than 5 occurred, including the largest event ever recorded in the Comoros (Mw = 5.9 on 15 May 2018). Earthquakes are clustered in space and time. Unusual intense long lasting monochromatic very long period events were also registered. From early July 2018, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) registered a large drift, testimony of a large offshore deflation. We describe the onset and the evolution of a large magmatic event thanks to the analysis of the seismicity from the initiation of the crisis through its first year, compared to the ground deformation observation (GNSS and InSAR) and modelling. We discriminate and characterize the initial fracturing phase, the phase of magma intrusion and dyke propagation from depth to the subsurface, and the eruptive phase that starts on 3 July 2018, around 50 d after the first seismic events. The eruption is not terminated 2 yr after its initiation, with the persistence of an unusual seismicity, whose pattern has been similar since summer 2018, including episodic very low frequency events presenting a harmonic oscillation with a period of ∼16 s. From July 2018, the whole Mayotte Island drifted eastward and downward at a slightly increasing rate until reaching a peak in late 2018. At the apex, the mean deformation rate was 224 mm yr−1 eastward and 186 mm yr−1 downward. During 2019, the deformation smoothly decreased and in January 2020, it was less than 20 per cent of its peak value. A deflation model of a magma reservoir buried in a homogenous half space fits well the data. The modelled reservoir is located 45 ± 5 km east of Mayotte, at a depth of 28 ± 3 km and the inferred magma extraction at the apex was ∼94 m3 s−1. The introduction of a small secondary source located beneath Mayotte Island at the same depth as the main one improves the fit by 20 per cent. While the rate of the main source drops by a factor of 5 during 2019, the rate of the secondary source remains stable. This might be a clue of the occurrence of relaxation at depth that may continue for some time after the end of the eruption. According to our model, the total volume extracted from the deep reservoir was ∼2.65 km3 in January 2020. This is the largest offshore volcanic event ever quantitatively documented. This seismo-volcanic crisis is consistent with the trans-tensional regime along Comoros archipelago.

The Influence of Viscoelastic Crustal Rheologies on Volcanic Ground Deformation: Insights From Models of Pressure and Volume Change

AbstractInelastic rheological behavior, such as viscoelasticity, is increasingly utilized in the modeling of volcanic ground deformation, as elevated thermal regimes induced by magmatic systems may necessitate the use of a mechanical model containing a component of time‐dependent viscous behavior. For the modeling of a given amplitude and footprint of ground deformation, incorporating a viscoelastic regime has been shown to reduce the magma reservoir overpressure requirements suggested by elastic models. This phenomenon, however, is restricted to pressure‐based analyses and the associated creep behavior. Viscoelastic materials exhibit additional constitutive time‐dependent behaviors, determined by the stress and strain states, that are yet to be analyzed in the context of volcanic ground deformation. By utilizing a mechanically homogeneous model space and distinct reservoir evolutions, we provide a comparison of three viscoelastic rheological models, including the commonly implemented Maxwell and Standard Linear Solid configurations, and their time‐dependent behaviors from a fundamental perspective. We also investigate the differences between deformation time series resulting from a pressurization or volume change, two contrasting approaches that are assumed to be equivalent through elastic modeling. Our results illustrate that the perceived influence of viscoelasticity is dependent on the mode of deformation, with stress‐based pressurization models imparting enhanced deformation relative to the elastic models, thus reducing pressure requirements. Strain‐based volumetric models, however, exhibit reduced levels of deformation and may produce episodes of apparent ground subsidence induced by source inflation or vice versa, due to the relaxation of crustal stresses, dependent on whether the reservoir is modeled to be expanding or contracting, respectively.

Detection and Monitoring of Tunneling-Induced Riverbed Deformation Using GPS and BeiDou: A Case Study

Shield tunneling under rivers often requires monitoring riverbed deformations in near real-time. However, it is challenging to measure riverbed deformation with conventional survey techniques. This study introduces a comprehensive method that uses the Global Positioning System (GPS) of the USA and the BeiDou navigation satellite system (BeiDou) of China to monitor riverbed deformation during the construction of twin tunnels beneath the Hutuo River in Shijiazhuang, China. A semi-permanent GPS network with one base station outside the river and six rover stations within the river was established for conducting near real-time and long-term monitoring. The distances between the base and the rover antennas are within two kilometers. The network was continuously operating for eight months from April to December 2018. The method is comprised of three components: (1) Monitoring the stability of the base station using precise point positioning (PPP) method, a stable regional reference frame, and a seasonal ground deformation model; (2) monitoring the relative positions of rover stations using the carrier-phase double-difference (DD) positioning method in near real-time; and (3) detecting abrupt and gradual displacements at both base and rover stations using an automated change point detection algorithm. The method is able to detect abrupt positional-changes as minor as five millimeters in near real-time and gradual positional-changes at a couple of millimeters per day within a week. The method has the flexibility of concurrent processing different GPS and BeiDou data sessions (e.g., every 15 minutes, 30 minutes, one hour, one day) for diffident monitoring purposes. This study indicates that BeiDou observations can also achieve few-millimeter-accuracy for measuring displacements. Parallel processing GPS and BeiDou observations can improve the reliability of near real-time structural deformation monitoring and minimize false alerts. The method introduced in this article can be applied to other urban areas for near real-time and long-term structural health monitoring.

Seismic velocities, Poisson's ratios and potential auxetic behavior of volcanic rocks

The present compilation of P- and S-wave velocities (Vp and Vs) for 395 dry and 664 wet basalt, 231 dry and 63 wet rhyolite samples provide a new database for evaluating the porosity (ϕ) dependence of Vp, Vs and Poisson's ratio (ν) and the potential auxetic behavior (i.e., negative Poisson's ratio) of volcanic rocks. The ν-ϕ correlation is always positive for the water-saturated rocks but can be either positive (rhyolite) or negative (basalt) for dry rocks, depending on the Poisson's ratio of the non-porous solid matrix (ν0). Auxetic behavior cannot occur in wet volcanic rocks but may appear in dry basalts with extremely high porosity (≥70% for basalt), such that a re-entrant foam structure forms. The auxeticity of highly porous volcanic rocks such as pumice and reticulite will be suppressed by infiltration of water into the rocks. Hence, volcanic rocks cannot be auxetic in nature if their vesicles are filled with water. Under the laboratory conditions, however, a transition from conventional to auxetic behaviors in pumice and reticulite is expected to occur by changing the degree of water saturation. These results provide a set of basic parameters for the modeling of ground deformation and temporal and spatial variations in Vp, Vs, Vp/Vs ratio as precursors of volcanic eruption or volcanic edifice collapse.

Land subsidence due to groundwater pumping and recharge: considering the particle-deposition effect in ground-source heat-pump engineering

With the rapid development and use of ground-source heat-pump (GSHP) systems in China, it has become imperative to research the effects of associated long-term pumping and recharge processes on ground deformation. During groundwater GSHP operation, small particles can be transported and deposited, or they can become detached in the grain skeleton and undergo recombination, possibly causing a change in the ground structure and characteristics. This paper presents a mathematical ground-deformation model that considers particle transportation and deposition in porous media based on the geological characteristics of a dual-structure stratum in Wuhan, eastern China. Thermal effects were taken into consideration because the GSHP technology used involves a device that uses heat from a shallow layer of the ground. The results reveal that particle deposition during the long-term pumping and recharge process has had an impact on ground deformation that has significantly increased over time. In addition, there is a strong correlation between the deformation change (%) and the amount of particle deposition. The position of the maximum deformation change is also the location where most of the particles are deposited, with the deformation change being as high as 43.3%. The analyses also show that flow of groundwater can have an effect on the ground deformation process, but the effect is very weak.

Ground deformation and fault modeling of the 2016 sequence (24 Aug. – 30 Oct.) in central Apennines (Central Italy)

A chain fault reactivation took place in central Apennines, from August 24 to October 30, 2016, producing five moderate-to-strong earthquakes ranging from Mw5.5 to Mw6.6. This paper presents the results from the study of the ground co-seismic ruptures around the Monte Vettore and Vettoretto, and Norcia. Surface co-seismic ruptures, were observed in the Vettore and Vettoretto segment of the fault for some kilometers (~7 km) in the August earthquakes, which were partly re-activated and expanded northward during the October earthquakes. Ruptures with 5-15 cm displacements are observed both in scree and weathered mantle (elluvium) and the bedrock, mainly fragmented carbonate rocks with small tectonic surfaces. After the October seismic sequence the co-seismic displacement doubled and reached more than 50cm. Oblique low-altitude aerial images were acquired at several sites using a UAV and 3D models were constructed using photogrammetric extrapolation. Numerous observed and mapped rock falls, slides of earth-materials etc, occur mainly along the mountain roads, on artificial slopes. They were studied with preliminary mapping from satellite imagery, and examples are presented of large landslides in the epicentral region with pre and after- the earthquake images. The first four events are associated with four individual fault segments respectively, all aligned along the mountain-fronts of Mt Gorzano and Mt Vettore. The last fifth and strongest event was the result of linkage and breaching of the previous fault segments. We modelled the fault segments intofive seismogenic sources in order to calculate the post-sequence static stress changes produced by the five seismogenic sources (or source faults) to the surrounding faults (receiver faults). Our results suggest possible triggering effects for neighbouring faults located along the strike of the source faults and delay effects for faults which are directly located either on the footwall or hanging-wall.

Deriving Spatio-Temporal Development of Ground Subsidence Due to Subway Construction and Operation in Delta Regions with PS-InSAR Data: A Case Study in Guangzhou, China

Subways have been an important method for relieving traffic pressures in urban areas, but ground subsidence, during construction and operation, can be a serious problem as it may affect the safety of its operation and that of the surrounding buildings. Thus, conducting long-term ground deformation monitoring and modeling for subway networks are essential. Compared with traditional geodetic methods, the Persistent Scatterer Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (PS-InSAR) technique offers wider coverage and denser measurements along subway lines. In this study, we mapped the surface deformation of the Guangzhou subway network with Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) and Phased Array Type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) data using the Interferometric Point Target Analysis (IPTA) technique. The results indicate that newly excavated tunnels have regional subsidence with an average rate of more than 8 mm/year, as found on Lines Two, Three, Six, and GuangFo (GF). Furthermore, we determined the spatio-temporal subsidence behavior of subways with PALSAR in delta areas using Peck’s formula and the logistic time model. We estimated the tunneling-related parameters in soft soil areas, which had not been previously explored. We examined a section of line GF, as an example, to estimate the ground settlement trough development. The results showed the maximum settlement increased from −5.2 mm to −23.6 mm and its ground loss ratio ranged from 1.5–8.7% between 13 July 2008 and 19 January 2011. In addition, we found that the tunnels in line GF will become stable after a period of about 2300 days in peak subsidence areas. The results show that the proposed approach can help explain the dynamic ground subsidence along a metro line. This study can provide references for urban subway projects in delta areas, and for the risk assessment of nearby buildings and underground pipelines along metro lines.

Land subsidence inversion method application for salt mining-induced rock mass movement

AbstractThe modeling of strains and deformations in salt mine areas encounters considerable difficulties because of the varying strength properties of salt, the complex morphological build of dome deposits and the rheological properties of salt. These properties have impacted the development of salt extraction for hundreds of years and the fact that the accurate determining of strains in a given specified moment and place are burdened with high uncertainty. Numerical modeling is useful when the model is reduced to one or several salt chambers. A broader range of underground post mining void considerably lowers the accuracy and efficiency of the calculations of such models. Stochastic models allow for a 3D modeling of the entire mining complex deposit, provided the model has been parametrized in detail. The methods of strains and deformations modeling were presented on the example of one of the biggest salt mines in Europe, where a volume of over 21 million m3 of salt was extracted. The stochastic model could be parametrized thanks to the documented results of measurements of convergence of the underground mining panels and leveling on the surface. The use of land subsidence inversion in the least squares method allowed for estimating the optimum values of parameters of the model. Ground deformation modeling was performed using the two-parameter time function, which allows for a simulation to be carried out in time. In the simulation, the convergence of underground excavations and the transition in time the effects of convergence into ground subsidence was taken into account. The detailed analysis of the geological conditions lead to modeling deviation of the subsidence trough. The accuracy of the modeling results was qualitatively and quantitatively confirmed by a comparison of the modeled to measured values of the vertical ground movement. The scaled model can be applied in future mining extraction projects in order to predict the strains and deformations for an arbitrary moment in time.

Earthquake Triggering Inferred from Rupture Histories, DInSAR Ground Deformation and Stress-Transfer Modelling: The Case of Central Italy During August 2016–January 2017

On August 24, October 26 and 30, 2016, Central Apennines (Italy) were hit by three shallow, normal faulting very strong earthquakes rupturing in an NW–SE striking zone. Event 3 (Norcia) occurred between event 1 (Amatrice) at the SE and event 2 (Visso) at the NW of the entire rupture zone. The rupture histories of the three events, as revealed by teleseismic P-wave inversion, showed that all were characterized by bilateral rupture process with stronger rupture directivity towards NW for events 1 and 3 and towards SSE for event 2. Maximum seismic slip of 1.2, 0.8, and 1.4 m in the hypocenter and magnitude of M w 6.2, 6.1, and 6.5 were calculated for the three events, respectively. DInSaR measurements based on Sentinel-1 and 2 satellite images showed ground deformation directivity from events 1 and 2 towards event 3, which is consistent with the rupture process directivity. For events 1, 2, and 3, the maximum ground subsidence was found equal to 0.2, 0.15, and 0.35 m. Based on rupture directivity and ground deformation pattern, we put forward the hypothesis that the area of the second event was stress loaded by the first one and that both the first and second earthquake events caused stress loading in the area, where the third event ruptured. Coulomb stress-transfer modelling yields strong evidence in favor of our hypothesis. The stress in the fault plane of event 2 was increased by ~0.19 bars due to loading from event 1. Event 3 fault plane was loaded by an amount of ~2 bars, due to the combined stress transfer from the two previous events, despite its proximity to the negative/positive lobe boundary. The three events produced combined stress loading of more than +0.5 bar along the Apennines to the NW and SE of the entire rupture zone. In the SE stress lobe, a series of strong earthquakes of M w 5.3, 5.6, and 5.7 occurred on January 18, 2017, but likely, seismic potential remains in the area. We consider that in the NW and more extensive stress lobe, the seismic potential has also elevated due to stress loading.

Modeling of Ground Deformation and Shallow Surface Waves Generated by Martian Dust Devils and Perspectives for Near-Surface Structure Inversion

We investigated the possible seismic signatures of dust devils on Mars, both at long and short period, based on the analysis of Earth data and on forward modeling for Mars. Seismic and meteorological data collected in the Mojave Desert, California, recorded the signals generated by dust devils. In the 10–100 s band, the quasi-static surface deformation triggered by pressure fluctuations resulted in detectable ground-tilt effects: these are in good agreement with our modeling based on Sorrells’ theory. In addition, high-frequency records also exhibit a significant excitation in correspondence to dust devil episodes. Besides wind noise, this signal includes shallow surface waves due to the atmosphere-surface coupling and is used for a preliminary inversion of the near-surface S-wave profile down to 50 m depth. In the case of Mars, we modeled the long-period signals generated by the pressure field resulting from turbulence-resolving Large-Eddy Simulations. For typical dust-devil-like vortices with pressure drops of a couple Pascals, the corresponding horizontal acceleration is of a few nm/s2 for rocky subsurface models and reaches 10–20 nm/s2 for weak regolith models. In both cases, this signal can be detected by the Very-Broad Band seismometers of the InSight/SEIS experiment up to a distance of a few hundred meters from the vortex, the amplitude of the signal decreasing as the inverse of the distance. Atmospheric vortices are thus expected to be detected at the InSight landing site; the analysis of their seismic and atmospheric signals could lead to additional constraints on the near-surface structure, more precisely on the ground compliance and possibly on the seismic velocities.

Evaluating the Wind-Induced Mechanical Noise on the InSight Seismometers

The SEIS (Seismic Experiment for Interior Structures) instrument onboard the InSight mission to Mars is the critical instrument for determining the interior structure of Mars, the current level of tectonic activity and the meteorite flux. Meeting the performance requirements of the SEIS instrument is vital to successfully achieve these mission objectives. Here we analyse in-situ wind measurements from previous Mars space missions to understand the wind environment that we are likely to encounter on Mars, and then we use an elastic ground deformation model to evaluate the mechanical noise contributions on the SEIS instrument due to the interaction between the Martian winds and the InSight lander. Lander mechanical noise maps that will be used to select the best deployment site for SEIS once the InSight lander arrives on Mars are also presented. We find the lander mechanical noise may be a detectable signal on the InSight seismometers. However, for the baseline SEIS deployment position, the noise is expected to be below the total noise requirement >97% of the time and is, therefore, not expected to endanger the InSight mission objectives.

Thermo-hydrogeomechanical modeling of vertical ground deformation during the operation of the Mutnovskii Geothermal Field

Vertical ground displacements at the Mutnovskii Geothermal Field were measured annually during the 2004–2013 period using a network of borehole markers. Three areas have been identified where the vertical displacements were different in character. Positive vertical deformation (2–5 mm/yr) was recorded in the middle of the Dachnyi Area in 2005–2006, giving way to a later stabilization. The North Test Area where the exhaust heat carrier was reinjected did not show any substantial deformation during the 2003–2006 period. This was followed by an uplift in 2006–2008 (6–7 mm/yr) and then by a subsidence (5–8 mm/yr) in 2009–2013. No vertical deformation worth mentioning was recorded in the Verkhne-Mutnovskii Area prior to 2008, but a rapid subsidence began at a rate of 6–18 mm/yr after 2008. We used the TOUGH-FLAC software to analyze vertical ground deformation. This program is used to perform thermo-hydrogeomechanical (THM) modeling based on the previous TOUGH2 model. THM modeling can explain relative vertical deformation during the exploitation of the Mutnovskii Geothermal Field by separating the geothermal field into two compartments by the Osnovnoi fault, as the two have different tectonic settings and petrophysical properties.

Investigating the Ground Deformation and Source Model of the Yangbajing Geothermal Field in Tibet, China with the WLS InSAR Technique

Ground deformation contains important information that can be exploited to look into the dynamics of a geothermal system. In recent years, InSAR has manifested its strong power in the monitoring of ground deformation. In this paper, a multi-temporal InSAR algorithm, WLS InSAR, is employed to monitor and characterize the Yangbajing geothermal field in Tibet, China, using 51 ENVISAT/ASAR images acquired from two overlapping descending tracks. The results reveal that the WLS InSAR algorithm can suppress the adverse effects of seasonal oscillations, associated with the freezing-thawing cycle of the permafrost in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Deformations of up to 2 cm/yr resulting from the exploitation of the geothermal resource have been detected in the southern part of the Yangbajing field between 2006 and 2010. A source model inversion of the subsurface geothermal fluids was carried out based on the elastic half-space theory using the accumulated deformations. It was found that most geothermal fluid loss has occurred in the southern part of the shallow reservoir as the pore space beneath the northern part of field was recharged by the ascending flow from the deep layers of the reservoir through well-developed faults in the region.

Significance of the uncertainty level for the modeling of ground deformation ranges

Significance of the uncertainty level for the modeling of ground deformation ranges

Real Time Tracking of Magmatic Intrusions by means of Ground Deformation Modeling during Volcanic Crises.

Volcano observatories provide near real-time information and, ultimately, forecasts about volcano activity. For this reason, multiple physical and chemical parameters are continuously monitored. Here, we present a new method to efficiently estimate the location and evolution of magmatic sources based on a stream of real-time surface deformation data, such as High-Rate GPS, and a free-geometry magmatic source model. The tool allows tracking inflation and deflation sources in time, providing estimates of where a volcano might erupt, which is important in understanding an on-going crisis. We show a successful simulated application to the pre-eruptive period of May 2008, at Mount Etna (Italy). The proposed methodology is able to track the fast dynamics of the magma migration by inverting the real-time data within seconds. This general method is suitable for integration in any volcano observatory. The method provides first order unsupervised and realistic estimates of the locations of magmatic sources and of potential eruption sites, information that is especially important for civil protection purposes.