Agricultural Gross Domestic Product Research Articles

Metricizing policy texts: Comprehensive dataset on China’s Agri-policy intensity spanning 1982–2023

Due to the lack of direct assessment metrics, existing studies on the intensity of agricultural policies often utilize indicators such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of agriculture or the quantity of agricultural policies as measures. Optimizing methods for analyzing the intensity of agricultural policies will significantly impact parameter selection in agricultural policy research and the evaluation of policy effectiveness. In this study, we constructed a Chinese Agricultural Policy Corpus using agricultural policies released by various governmental agencies at the national level in China from 1982 to April 2023. We quantified the values of agricultural domain terms in the corpus and evaluated the intensity of each agricultural policy document. The validation results of this study indicate a strong correlation between the intensity of agricultural policies and agricultural GDP. The trend in agricultural GDP changes lags behind policy intensity by 2.5 years (at a 95% confidence level), thus validating the rationality of our constructed corpus, agricultural policy scoring dataset, and methodology.

Impact of Agriculture Growth on Poverty Reduction: A Case of Karnataka, India

Karnataka is one of the progressive states in the country even though it experiences the challenges of poverty and it has wide variation, depending on rural-urban disparities, region, caste, and religion. Agriculture as primary sector contribute notably to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and being main occupation for majority population acts as largest source of livelihood for the rural poor by creating enormous employment opportunities thus by increasing the income levels, agriculture play a key role in reducing poverty. The present study was conducted to analyse the impact of agriculture growth on poverty reduction in Karnataka state by using secondary data. The relationship between poverty, agriculture GDP per worker and non-agriculture GDP per worker was analysed using pooled panel regression analysis. The results of the study shows that contribution of agriculture sector was far more in decreasing poverty than the non-agricultural sector, as every one per cent increase in agriculture GDP per worker reduced poverty by 1.36 per cent as against 0.80 per cent in non-agriculture GDP per worker. As majority of people depends on agriculture for their livelihood, it is evident that the agriculture sector has a greater impact on alleviating poverty among rural population. However, it suggested that the balanced growth across all three sectors of the economy will help to reduce the poverty rates by increasing income level of the population.

Successive national agricultural policies/programmes, growth of gross domestic product (GDP) and expansion of agribusinesses in Nigeria.

In Sub Saharan Africa, agriculture's contribution to employment and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated to be higher than other sectors. Policies designed and implemented for the agricultural sector could be an influencing factor to the variations in the contributions of agriculture to the annual national GDP. These policies are believed to have shaped and (some) still shaping the landscape of agriculture and national economy. The study analysed agriculture's GDP contribution during the implementation of various national agricultural policies, and the potential of the policies to foster agrobusiness development in Nigeria between 2000 and 2021. The study adopted mixed-method approach. Primary data were collected through a structured questionnaire administered on 29 purposively sampled state Agricultural Development Programme (ADP) directors across Nigeria. The questionnaire was face-validated by three experts. Reliability test was carryout using Cronbach Alpha approach, which yielded an index of 0.89. Copies of the questionnaire were administered on the respondents through direct contact. Secondary data were collected from the Nigeria's Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, National Bureau of Statistics, and World Bank. Data was analysed with mean, standard deviation, percentages and ANOVA. Findings of the study revealed that the performance of implemented agricultural policies had influence on agricultural sector's percentage contribution to national GDP, and changes in agriculture's GDP contribution had significant impact on national GDP growth. The duration of active life of the policies did not influence their performance, like the Root and Tuber Expansion Programme which lasted longer yet performed less than the National Special Programme on Food Security in terms of improvement in agriculture's GDP contributions. All the policies implemented had several limitations in their ability to foster agribusinesses in Nigeria. The study recommends that future policies should focus on providing sustainable frameworks for developing the business in agriculture through value chain optimisation and the use of the teeming, young, and affordable labour force like China and India did to become global food producers.

Role and impact of contract farming under various pricing standards: A case of Guyana's rice sector

<abstract> <p>Rice cultivation has played a pivotal role in Guyana's agricultural history, contributing significantly to both sustenance and economic prosperity for over two centuries. Accounting for 3.3% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) and a substantial 20.5% of the agricultural GDP, the rice industry has faced challenges influenced by various global and domestic factors, impacting the productivity and profitability of rice farmers. One key influencing factor is contract farming, involving agreements between farmers and firms that outline production and marketing conditions for agricultural products. In Guyana's rice industry, contract farming is prevalent, but challenges such as unequal bargaining power and discrepancies in weights and prices persist. Notably, using two pricing standards, high-price and low-price, further complicates the understanding of contract farming's impact on rice cultivation. We delved into the role and impact of contract farming on rice cultivation in Guyana, with a specific focus on the Mahaica-Berbice and Essequibo Islands-West Demerara regions. In this study, conducted with 121 farmers using systematic sampling, we used profitability assessment, frequency distribution, and binary logistic regression analyses. The findings revealed that high-price contracts contributed to greater farmer profitability compared to low-price contracts. Despite this, low-price contracts persisted due to factors such as risk-sharing, access to credit, and fertilizers. Moreover, pricing standards influenced farmer behavior, with low-price contracts prompting crop diversification to supplement income. These insights underscored the significance of pricing standards in determining the effectiveness of contract farming and its impact on farmers' livelihoods. Policymakers and stakeholders can leverage these findings to design more effective contract farming models, enhancing farmers' profitability and contributing to sustainable agricultural development. Furthermore, future research may explore the impact of farmers' organization membership on contract farming productivity, providing additional depth to our understanding of this crucial agricultural practice.</p> </abstract>

Effect of typhoons on spatiotemporal patterns of multi-group persistent organic pollutants in sediment of Chinese southeastern coastal estuaries

Estuaries are susceptible to both anthropogenic disturbances and global climate changes. Impacts may be discriminated by pollution patterns of widely quantified persistent organic pollutants (POPs), though data are scarce for extreme climate events. This study quantified four groups of POPs, i.e., polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs), and hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs), in sediments from seven Chinese coastal estuaries across a gradient of socioeconomic development in their watersheds with comparisons among the pre-typhoon, typhoon, and post-typhoon periods during 2016–2019. The maximal average concentrations, up to 1561 μg PAHs kg−1, 235 μg DDTs kg−1, and 38.9 μg HCHs kg−1, were quantified in the Jiulong River estuary and 7.61 μg PCBs kg−1 in the Jiao River estuary. Anthropogenic activities contributed to the distinctive spatial distributions of four groups of POPs in estuaries with non-agricultural gross domestic product (NAGDP) per capita significantly relating to sedimentary concentrations of PAHs and PCBs and agricultural gross domestic product (AGDP) per capita relating to DDTs and HCHs. Seasonality and typhoons led to less temporal variations in sedimentary POPs concentrations, whose spatial heterogeneity was remarkably reduced in the post-typhoon period rather than in the pre-typhoon and typhoon periods. The results of this study suggested that fingerprinting legacy POPs in spatial and temporal distributions contributed to identifying the effects of anthropogenic disturbances and climate changes on estuarine sediment quality.

The agricultural policy of Mexico in the american context (1995-2020)

Objective: To analyze the long-term relationship of two groups of agricultural policy instruments classifiedby the OECD-Producer Support Estimator (PSE) and General Services Support Estimator (GSSE)-OECDclassification on Agricultural Gross Domestic Product (AGDP) in Mexico, USA, Canada, Chile and Brazilduring the period 1995-2020, to generate information that contributes to the design of agricultural policies.Design/Methodology/Approach: The information used in this work was developed by the OECD and wasintegrated into a time series for the 1995-2020 period. A quantitative analysis was carried out based on theeconometric method, applying the cointegration test.Results: The Canadian, Brazilian, and Mexican series are cointegrated, because the error of the model has aunit root (i.e., individual variables are not of order I(0)); however, the combination of their variables show thatthe error is a process I(0), with a zero mean. However, the Chilean and USA variables were not cointegrated.Study Limitations/Implications: An open market environment requires the development and implementationof policies that include the use of diverse and relevant instrument groups, guaranteeing that the resourcestransferred to the sector generate the expected results.Findings/Conclusions: In comparison with the PSE, the GSSE has a closer long-term relation with thegrowth of the agricultural GPB in most countries; therefore, using this group of instruments to transferresources to the sector is assumed to improve its performance to a greater degree.

Assessment of Government Policies, Farm Subsidies, and Agriculture Growth

Political ideology serves as the nexus that intertwines various aspects of farming policy formulation, subsidy distribution, foreign grants, and the growth rate of the agricultural sector. This article takes a comprehensive look at the intricate relationship between People’s Multiparty Democracy (PMPD) and the development of farmer-centric policy formulation, the different types of farm subsidies, and their allocation. This examination is conducted by evaluating the various categories of agricultural funding projects and their outcomes, as well as analyzing the performance of the agricultural gross domestic product (AGDP). The descriptive findings of this study illuminate the direct influence of PMPD in shaping pro-farmer policy formulations. Farmers have been benefiting from moderate-level input subsidies designed to facilitate the acquisition of capital assets for the promotion of agricultural technology. These subsidies are sourced from both regular government funds and donor-supported initiatives that have been executed over varying periods. The average subsidy rate remains below 50%, contingent upon its intended purpose. Despite the positive political support, the AGDP has consistently hovered around the 3% mark throughout different development plans. It’s worth noting that not only PMPD but also other political paradigms such as the Panchayat system or multi-party democracy have significantly propelled economic growth. This underscores the need for renewed endeavors to leverage farmer’s equity funds, the government’s routine budget, loans, and grant funds. This study recommends the establishment of a collaborative platform involving farmers, the government, financial institutions, and donors, to successfully execute a growth-oriented business plan. Additionally, the study strongly advocates for three major investments: the establishment of fertilizer manufacturing facilities, hybrid seed production projects, and the creation of a resource center. These investments are crucial for the enhancement of key agricultural value chains.

Sustainable Rice Industry in Nepal: Comparative Analysis with South Asia

Rice, a prime crop in Nepal and other South Asian nations, plays a crucial role in ensuring food security and socio-economic development. In Nepal’s agricultural sector, rice accounts for the largest share of the Agricultural Gross Domestic Product (AGDP), comprising approximately 20%. However, the absence of appropriate policies poses a significant challenge to the sustainable production of rice in Nepal. This study aims to assess the various policy dimensions of the sustainable rice industry in Nepal and compare them with the policy implications in neighboring South Asian countries such as India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. The study draws on secondary sources of information for its analysis. The findings reveal that Nepal lacks a comprehensive rice policy, while its existing agriculture policy is characterized by confusion and contradictions. To attain self-sufficiency in food production, it is imperative to establish a comprehensive rice policy in Nepal and implement price subsidies on diverse inputs, as observed in neighboring countries which will ultimately contribute to enhancing the sustainability of the rice industry and promote the goal of food self-sufficiency in Nepal.

Review of Literature on Fish Marketing in Coastal Districts of Karnataka - Challenges and Opportunities

Abstract: Purpose: In Indian economy fishing has its own importance. India is one of the largest producers of fish both sea and in land. Fisheries help in expanding food supplies, employment generating, raise nutritional level and earn foreign exchange. The fisheries production contributes around 1% to India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and over 5% of agricultural GDP. The fisheries sector provides employment for over 11 million people who are fully employed, part time or in ancillary activities related to the sector with an equally impressive proportion of the population engaged in ancillary activities. At present, India being the largest fish producers in the world, accounts for about 6% of global fish production. Purpose of the study to know the challenges of fresh fish marketing activity and the opportunities for fishermen and women in fresh fish marketing in view of improvement of their socio - economic status as well as supply of quality products to ultimate consumers. Fish sellers faces numerous problems while marketing the fish such as poor drainage, safety, electricity, icing, personal expenses, unsanitary environment and transportation, etc., The development of fish marketing facilities is vital, by improving fish transportation facilities, building an ice factory and introducing a fish quality monitoring unit. Design/Methodology/Approach: In this study systematic literature review methodology is used to identify research gap and research agendas. A technical study was used for research. Studies based on the secondary information. Information related to fisheries problem in procurement, transportation, selling the fresh will be collected. Their views regarding magnitude of the problems will be presented in tabular form. Further their expectation from institutional agency and their support for fisheries activities. Secondary data is collected through books, newspapers, previous research and government websites. Findings: Significant number of research initiatives in the field of Fish marketing issues, management, functions, climate change effect, performance of fisheries cooperatives in the international and in India but very few studies are done to socio - economic conditions of fisher - women, fish - marketing in Coastal District of Karnataka – Challenges and opportunities. Level of education in fish marketing is low. Adequate storage conditions must be provided to preserve the fish. Finally, this paper highlights the challenges of fresh fish marketing activity and the opportunities for fishermen and women in fresh fish marketing regarding improvement in their socio - economic status as well as supply of quality products to ultimate consumers. Recommendations for future research are also formulated in systematic literature reviews. Originality/Value: Fisherwomen plays an important role in fisheries sector and responsible for providing services to fishing families and community networks and support structures. Studies have not thrown light on problems of fisherwomen in procurement, processing, transportation and marketing of fresh fish in distinct location. Academia, researchers and experts working in the field of fish marketing will find this article useful in understanding the current state of the literature on fish marketing opportunities and challenges and existing gaps. Paper Type: Review of Literature

What Driving Gross Domestic Product of Agriculture? Lessons from Indonesia (2014-2021)

What Driving Gross Domestic Product of Agriculture? Lessons from Indonesia (2014-2021)

Estimating local agricultural gross domestic product (AgGDP) across the world

Abstract. Economic statistics are frequently produced at an administrative level such as the subnational division. However, these measures may lack sufficient local variation for effective analysis of local economic development patterns and exposure to natural hazards. Agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) is a critical indicator for measurement of the primary sector, on which more than 2.5 billion people depend for their livelihoods, and it provides a key source of income for the entire household (FAO, 2021). Through a data-fusion method based on cross-entropy optimization, this paper disaggregates national and subnational administrative statistics of agricultural GDP into a global gridded dataset at approximately 10×10 km for the year 2010 using satellite-derived indicators of the components that make up agricultural GDP, i.e., crop, livestock, fishery, hunting and forestry production. To illustrate the use of the new dataset, the paper estimates the exposure of areas with at least one extreme drought during 2000 to 2009 to agricultural GDP, which amounts to around USD 432 billion of agricultural GDP circa 2010, with nearly 1.2 billion people living in those areas. The data are available on the World Bank Development Data Hub (https://doi.org/10.57966/0j71-8d56; IFPRI and World Bank, 2022).

Effect of bank credit on agricultural gross domestic product

Purpose. This study aimed to provide the central bank of Bangladesh with some empirical data on the impact of bank agricultural credit on agricultural output as a priority sector lending. 
 Methodology / approach. Econometric analysis is applied to discover the nature of the relationship between banks’ agricultural credit and agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) and to find the impact of bank agricultural credit on agricultural output in Bangladesh. Data are extracted from secondary sources, i.e., Bangladesh Bank, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, World Bank, and Ministry of Finance for 1991 to 2018. Time-series data are analyzed using the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) unit root test and the Johansen cointegration test and later examined with Vector Error Correction Model (VECM).
 Results. The Augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root test confirmed that the variables were non-stationary at their level data and became stationary after taking their first difference value. Since the variables are integrated at I(1), we performed the Johansen Co-integration test. Subsequently, one co-integration equation was found, and Vector Error Correction Model estimation was done afterwards. According to the results of VECM estimation, bank agricultural credit, pesticide consumption, and use of cropped areas have long-run relation with agricultural output. 
 Originality / scientific novelty. This study reveals the nature of relationship and assessment of the impact of bank credit on agricultural GDP with empirically valid techniques and tools. In this context, the data from Bangladesh remains very rare. Moreover, for those works which have been done in the context of Bangladesh, appropriate methods and techniques are not always inherent. Hence, this significant research gap is addressed in our present study. Thus, we expect that the findings of this study from Bangladesh based on empirically valid standard techniques can incrementally contribute to the existing literature.
 Practical value / implications. Findings of this research, can be used as an information basis by the central bank of Bangladesh. Based on the findings of this research, Bangladesh Bank should initiate new policies and programs regarding agricultural credit for the projected increase in agricultural GDP in Bangladesh.

EXTERNAL DEBT AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA

The motivation for this paper stems from the rising debt profile of Nigeria, especially the foreign component, and its implication on growth prospects. In that regards, the study sought to establish the linkages between external debt and growth in productivity, specifically focusing on the agricultural sector. The study thus analyzed the relationship between external debt and Nigeria's agricultural production from 2006 to 2021 using secondary data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin and the World Development Indicators (WDI). ADF unit root test and the (ARDL) bound testing approach to cointegration were utilized, to achieve the objectives of the study. The parameters displayed a long-term association in both the short and long - run, according to empirical results, which demonstrated that the variables were cointegrated. External debt stock (EDS) and agricultural production, as assessed by agriculture gross domestic product (AGDP), had a substantial positive association, indicating that EDS positively impacted agricultural growth and that higher EDS accelerated agricultural growth over time. To be precise, a rise in EDS of 1% produced an increase in AGDP of 0.14%. Euro bond stock and bilateral loans also revealed positive relationships while External Debt Service Payment and Multilateral loans revealed negative relationships with AGDP. According to this research, the government must consider the strategy of diversifying its economy via agricultural output seriously. To lessen the cost and unfavorable effects of an excessive reliance on foreign exchange from oil and its price volatility, it is necessary to diversify the sources of external debt servicing, particularly in the non-oil sector including agriculture, mining, industry, and industrial production.
 Keywords: Debt, Agriculture, Loans, Output, Nigeria.

Nexus between Agriculture Growth and Poverty Reduction in India

Poverty is an issue of concern in developing countries as it remains the most elusive social evil to derail the economic progress of the country and social status of population. India remains fastest growing economy in the world, however efforts have to be made to improve the standard of living and social wellbeing of people. Agriculture as primary sector benefits the poor sections of the population by providing employment opportunities and play a key role in reducing poverty. The present study was conducted to assess the impact of agriculture growth on poverty reduction by using secondary data and sixteen states of India were purposively selected. An attempt was made to analyse the relationship between poverty, Agriculture Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per worker and Non-Agriculture Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per worker using pooled regression analysis. The findings of the study shows that, as every one per cent increase in Agriculture GDP per worker found to have reduced poverty by 0.11 per cent as against 0.04 per cent in Non-Agriculture GDP per worker. This shows that increase in Agriculture GDP per worker causes higher poverty reduction as compared to Non- Agriculture GDP per worker. This is true in case of agrarian economy like India as majority of population are dependent on agriculture for their sustenance. However, it suggested that the balanced mutual growth between various sectors of the economy will help to alleviate poverty in the country.

Services as a Determinant of Botswana's Economic Sustainability.

In 2015, the services sector contributed about 58 percent to the gross domestic product (GDP) in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), which was a significant increase from the 47.6 percent observed in 2005, and a shift from the mining, agriculture, and manufacturing sector. This increase calls to support services as the catalyst for sustained economic development as indicated by the structural transformation and modernization theories. The main objective of this paper was to examine the relationship between and the impact of services on the economic development in Botswana and make recommendations on how Botswana can apply well-directed policies to improve its services sector and diversify its impact on other sectors and GDP, making it less reliant on mining which is vulnerable to price volatilities. The paper applied econometric modeling and results of the Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds test for cointegration indicate that services and other industries services, agriculture, industry, mining, and investment impact GDP over the short and long run. These variables impacted GDP and converged to equilibrium at the speed of 46.89 percent, with a percent change in services in the short and long run impacting GDP by 0.328 and 0.241 percentages, respectively, and the outcome of the Wald test indicated causality from services to GDP growth. The services sectors have contributed over 40 percent to the country's GDP from 1995 to the present, though the sectors have not gone without challenges with limitations such as limited infrastructure development; poverty and inequality; unemployment of over 20 percent; disease, which has dampened productivity; and lack of proper governance and accountability, which has created a habitat for an increase in cases of corruption in state and private entities. The findings of the study with the lessons learned from other studies with similar findings recommend that the government of Botswana should formulate suitable policies and strategies for services diversification. This is by expanding the market for the sector in areas such as tourism that were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, escalating investments by instituting strategies to attract and grow domestic and foreign investments, and improve on management of institutions and resources.

Present and future: Does agriculture affect economic growth and the environment in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia?

Global climate change is a crucial environmental issue. Worldwide warming is primarily caused by carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) emission levels. Agricultural production is among many economic activities driving CO<sub>2</sub> creation and environmental degradation. In this study, we aim to disclose the effect of agricultural production (date production) on the agricultural gross domestic product (AGDP) and the environment (CO<sub>2</sub> emissions). We collected data on date production, AGDP and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from different resources covering the period from 1990 to 2019. To analyse the data, we used the Engle-Granger two-step procedure, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds methods of analysis, regression analysis and forecasting tests. Results from fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) analyses helped confirm the results of the ARDL model. The results revealed that there are long-run relationships between AGDP and date production and between CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and date production. The first result is consequent with theory and leads to economic growth, whereas the second result indicates a negative effect on the environment. To ascertain which production factors were responsible for this negative result, we ran a regression analysis, and the results indicated that the coefficient of electricity consumption (independent variable) was positive and highly significant in explaining the variability of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. The results of the regression analysis also showed that agriculture affected the environment negatively through increasing CO<sub>2</sub> emissions during the study period. Forecasting analysis results showed a decrease in CO<sub>2</sub> emissions for the period from 2020 to 2026. The study results lead us to recommend that, to increase economic growth, date production should be increased along with the synchronised use of renewable sources of electricity. The governmental effort to sustain the environment also should be increased and continued through increasing the share of renewable electricity in total electricity consumption.

Structural transformation away from agriculture in growing open economies

AbstractUnderstanding how and why economies structurally transform away from agriculture as they grow is crucial for developing sensible growth strategies and farm and food policies. Typically, analysts who study this and related structural change issues focus on sectoral shares of gross domestic product (GDP) and employment. This article draws on trade theory to focus as well on exports. It also notes that the trade costs of some products are too high at early stages of development to make international trade profitable, so a nontradables sector is recognized. The general equilibrium model presented in the theory section provides hypotheses about structural transformation in differently endowed open economies as they grow. Those hypotheses are tested econometrically with a new annual endowments dataset covering 1995–2018 for more than 130 countries. The results are consistent with long run de‐agriculturalization in the course of national economic growth in terms not only of sectoral shares of GDP and employment but also of exports. We find those shares are not significantly affected by either differences across countries in relative factor endowments or relative rates of sectoral assistance from government; but the agricultural GDP and employment shares are higher the higher is the share of agriculture in national exports.

The Impact of Insecurity on Agricultural Food Loss in Nigeria.

This research examined the impact of insecurity on agricultural food loss in Nigeria using the time series data from 2011 –2020. Regression analysis was employed to evaluate the impact of insecurity on agricultural food loss in Nigeria. The relationship examined was between the dependent variable: Agricultural gross domestic product (AGDP) which serves as a representative of agricultural food production. The explanatory (independent) variables are poverty rate, unemployment rate, crime rate, and federal government expenditures on internal security in Nigeria. The result indicated an R2 value of 0.42 which implies that 42% of the proportion of variation in AGDP was explained by the independent variables. Also, the result revealed that CIR and UNEMP were negatively related to Agricultural productivity (AGDP) i.e. contribution to food loss whose coefficients indicate (-0.27) and (-0.67) respectively. It is therefore recommended that Government and policymakers should make an unrelenting effort to improve the agricultural sector with the aid of modern mechanised equipment in order to reduce the level of unemployment, poverty, and crime rate in Nigeria and solve issues of insecurity in the country. Keywords: Insecurity, Agricultural productivity, Food loss, Sustainable development, Crime rate.

Understanding the Causes of the Decline in the Iraqi Agricultural Sector’s Contribution to the GDP

The agricultural sector is one of the most important economic sectors in Iraq. It is ranked second after the crude oil sector in terms of its contribution to the gross domestic product (GDP). However, its contribution to the GDP declined from 26.93% in 1991 to 10.86% in 2004, 7.23% in 2010, and 4.77% in 2020. This decline can be attributed to many determinants of agricultural production that had a significant impact; therefore, this study aimed to investigate the determinants of agricultural production in Iraq during the period 2004:1- 2020:4 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL). The study concluded that there is a short and long-run equilibrium relationship between the GDP and the cultivated area, corruption, inflation, agricultural investment, agricultural production requirements, the availability of water, and employment in agricultural, on the other hand. The results indicated the significant impact of these variables on agricultural GDP in the long run. The main variables contributing to the agricultural GDP are water availability, corruption, and employment in agricultural. The estimates of the short-run parameters would correspond in terms of signs and significance with the results of the long-run estimates, even if the parameters’ values varied in different proportions. It indicates that the Iraqi agricultural sector suffers from a lack of optimal use of agricultural resources. Therefore, decision-makers in Iraq must adopt an effective agricultural policy by setting plans for the optimal use of water and paying attention to the human element to be qualified to carry out employment in agricultural and attract investment in the agricultural sector to develop it. It is also necessary to put in place financial and economic policies that reduce the adverse effects of inflationary pressures in the short and long terms, combat rampant corruption in the country, and preserve agricultural lands and reclamation of unsuitable lands.

A Proposed Comparative Algorithm for Regional Crop Yield Assessment: An Application of Characteristic Objects Method

The agriculture sector plays a vibrant role in the economic prosperity of advanced and developing countries. It is a crucial source of revenue for the majority of the population. Nevertheless, unfortunately, in Pakistan, the share of the agricultural sector in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is gradually declining. Therefore, comprehensive strategies and actions need to be developed and implement to enhance the agricultural productivity of Pakistan. In this study, an attempt has been made to examine the crop yield revenue of Punjab, Pakistan, by ranking the districts according to their contribution to the agricultural GDP of Pakistan's economy. A Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) technique, namely, characteristic objects method (COMET), which is entirely free of the rank reversal paradox, is used for this purpose. However, to make a fair comparison, in this research, a comprehensive framework is proposed to normalize the crop yield revenue of Punjab under probabilistic nature. The proposed framework is applied to various districts of Punjab, Pakistan, from 1992 to 2019. It is concluded that Jhang, Faisalabad, and Rahim Yar Khan (RYK) are the highest-ranked districts, while Nankana Sahib, Rawalpindi, and Islamabad are the lowest-ranked districts of Punjab, Pakistan, according to their contribution to the agricultural GDP of Pakistan's economy. Outcomes associated with this research would be helpful to build precise and accurate budget allocation policies.