Gross Domestic Product In Nigeria Research Articles

Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Economic Growth in Nigeria

The study examined the effect of macro-economic variables on economic growth in Nigeria between 1990-2022. Specifically, the paper examined the effect of Exchange rate on Economic growth in Nigeria and determined the effect of interest rate on Economic growth in Nigeria. The paper employed ex-facto research design, using secondary data and adopted SVAR model. The paper found out that interest rate has a significant effect on Economic growth (RGDP) in Nigeria, and found that exchange rate has a significant effect on Economic growth (RGDP) in Nigeria. The study concluded that macroeconomic variables has a significant effect on Economic growth in Nigeria. Based on the study’s findings and conclusions above, the following recommendations were made: the government should improve on her foreign reserves as an absolute measure that will stabilize exchange rate to boost economic environment for effective investment to thrive and contribute to gross domestic product in Nigeria, and interest rate is found to have increased the potentials of Economic growth in Nigeria. It is therefore important to note that since interest rate have significantly affected the Economic growth in Nigeria, the CBN should improve on discount rate to stabilize interest rate to boost economic environment for effective investment to thrive and contribute to gross domestic product in Nigeria.

Testing the Dynamic Affiliation among Financial inclusion, Energy Poverty, Environmental Degradation and Economic Development in the Selected African countries: Evidence of Panel Data Analysis

Energy is necessary for "cooking, lighting, and other business activities" and plays a vital part in daily living, in order to eradicate poverty in developing nations, affordable energy availability is a must. The study investigates the dynamic affiliation among financial inclusion, energy poverty, environmental degradation and economic development in the selected African countries using panel data analysis. The study used panel data for Nigeria, Ghana, Gabon and Niger from 2005 to 2021. The study employed fixed effect model. The panel unit root tests show that real gross domestic product, automated teller machine, depositors with commercial banks, and energy poverty are integrated of order one, while CO2 emission is integrated of order zero. The fixed effect model shows that automated teller machine, depositors with commercial banks and CO2 emission have positive and statistically significant effect on the real gross domestic product in Nigeria, Ghana, Gabon and Niger. While Energy poverty has a negative, but statistically significant effect on the real gross domestic product in Nigeria, Ghana and Gabon. The study recommends that in order to reduce energy poverty and environmental degradation in the region, African nation particularly Nigeria, Ghana, Gabon, and Niger should make sure that their citizens have access to affordable, readily available electricity. Policymakers and governments in Africa must create inclusive, well-directed financial policies that take into account the disparities in income, governance, and laws among their nations.

Effects of Budget Deficit Financing on the Economy of Nigeria

The study investigated the effects of deficit financing on the Nigerian economy using data that covered 41 years (1981 to 2021). Real gross domestic product (RGDP) was the dependent variable, while government budget deficit financing disaggregated into different sources of budget deficit financing represented the explanatory variables. The ordinary least squares (OLS) regression method was used for the tests and analyses. Results established that both non-bank public sources of deficit financing and banking system sources of deficit financing had positive and significant effects on growth. However, non-bank public deficit financing positively led the Nigerian economy and was followed by banking system deficit financing. Both ways and means and external deficit financing sources were negative and insignificant in influencing the Nigerian economy. Ways and means were third while external deficit financing was fourth in descending order of influence on RGDP growth. The study further applied the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) approach to unit root tests and observed that the variables were integrated at both levels and first difference, leading to the application of the Autoregressive Distributed lag (ARDL) approach to data estimation. The ARDL bounds tests showed that the model specified for the study followed a long-run path and that a long-run relationship existed between the dependent variable and the explanatory variables. The estimation of the long-run and error correction estimation indicated that the independent variables had a time-varying effect on the real gross domestic product of Nigeria. That ARDL estimation of the error correction mechanism also showed that RGDP adjusted rapidly to short-run discrepancies in the long run. Finally, the error correction mechanism showed that external sources of budget deficit financing, non-banking system public deficit financing, ways and means source of deficit financing, gross capital formation, real interest rate and exchange rate, all had robust effects on growth, though with varying directions of influence. Based on the foregoing, the study has recommended deficit financing, more especially non-bank public deficit financing and banking system deficit financing as better options for attaining the much desired rapid and sustainable economic growth of Nigeria as they have been proven to be non-inflationary in practice compared to ways and means and external source of deficit financing over the years.

Moderating Influence of Corruption on the Relationship between Aggregate Tax Revenue and Economic Development in Nigeria and Ghana

The study examines the moderating influence of corruption on the relationship between aggregate tax revenue and economic development in Nigeria and Ghana. Ex-post facto research design was adopted for the study where country specific data extracted from the annual publications of OECD database on tax revenue in Africa, Central Bank of Nigeria and Transparency International (TI) for the periods 1981 to 2022 were used. The dependent variable was economic development measured with Gross Domestic Product at 2015 Constant price while the independent variable was Aggregate tax revenue. The relationship between the dependent and independent variables was moderated by the presence of corruption measured by Corruption perception index for Nigeria and Ghana. Different econometric techniques were applied in the study while the data was analyzed by means of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model using E views Version 10. The findings showed that in Nigeria and Ghana, aggregate tax revenue had a positive and significant influence on economic development both short and long run whereas corruption had a negative but significant influence on the relationship between tax revenue and gross domestic product of Nigeria and Ghana. The study therefore recommends among others that the respective governments of Nigeria and Ghana should put in place adequate fiscal measures to ensure that revenue generated from taxes are effectively utilized to develop their economies. They should also see the need to tackle corruption in the process of executing projects by ensuring that activities of bad and corrupt leaders are closely monitored through further strengthening the hands of the anti Graft Agencies like the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and ICPC to have the political will to persecute corrupt leaders and managers of public funds.

Effect of Remittance Inflow on Economic Growth of Nigeria

This study examined the effect of remittance inflow on economic growth of Nigeria. The study specifically analyzed the short run and long run of personal remittance inflow on annual growth rate of gross domestic product of Nigeria. The study focused on Nigeria over the period of 41 years spanning from 1981 to 2021.This study employed secondary time series data obtained from World development Index and Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin. Data collated were analyzed by correlation analysis and unit root test, co-integration test, and Error correction model estimation. Result showed that on the short run remittance inflow exert insignificant negative effect on GDP growth of Nigeria (-0.337970, p > 0.05), while on the long remittance inflow exerts significant positive effect on GDP growth rate (1.973835, p < 0.05). This study established that inflow of personal remittance on the short run might be detrimental to the level of economic growth Nigeria if not channeled to productive engagement by recipients in the home country. Meanwhile on the long run, when the inflow rises consistently, the tendency to boost the level of economic growth is Nigeria is high and significant. Hence this study recommends the need for policies and programs as well as appropriate system reforms that encourage utilization of remittance for productive purposes. In addition there is need to put in place structure that will checkmate the rate of brain drain in the country, so as not to trade our quality human capital just for funds flow that might not necessarily be channeled equitably for productive activities in the short and intermediate term.

Value Added Tax and Economic Growth of Nigeria (2003-2022)

This study empirically examined the relationship between value added tax and economic growth of Nigeria. Time series data on Value Added Tax (VAT) revenue, Total (Federal Government) Revenue (TR), Total (Federal Government) Expenditure (TE) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 2003 to 2022 sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) were analysed, using both simple regression analysis and descriptive statistical method. VAT was used as the independent variable while TR, TE and GDP were used as the dependent variables. Findings showed that VAT revenue accounts for a significant variation in TR, TE and GDP in Nigeria. A very significant and positive correlation also exist between VAT revenue and TE but that the contribution of VAT to TE cannot be directly traceable to any specific expenditure of government like health, education or payment of salaries. The study therefore recommends that government should use a certain percentage of VAT revenue to finance critical sectors of the economy like agriculture, power or health which have direct bearing on the citizens. This can be achieved by establishing a Value Added Tax Fund (VATFund) as is the case with Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETFund) and other Trust Funds of government.

Effect of Increasing Government Debt Profile on Economic Prosperity of Nigeria

The study aimed at assessing the effect of increasing government debt profile on economic prosperity of Nigeria. Specifically, the study examined the extent that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was affected, during the period of study, by rising domestic debt, external debt, and cost of borrowing in Nigeria. The data for analysis were sourced principally from CBN Bulletins and Debt Management Office. The null hypotheses that domestic debt, external debt, and cost of borrowing do not significantly affect Gross Domestic Product, were tested through a multiple regression analysis. The findings indicate that Domestic Debt has a positive and significant effect on Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria with coefficient of 1.005965 and p-value of 0.0000. Furthermore, the external debt stock reveals a negative and non-significant effect on Gross Domestic Product with coefficient of -0.083963 and p-value of 0.5909, while Cost of Borrowing exposes a positive and non-significant effect on Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria with coefficient of 0.038835 and p-value of 0.7589. The R-squared (Coefficient of Determination) indicates that 98% of the variations in Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria could be explained by changes in Domestic Debt, External Debt and Cost of Borrowing. The implication of the findings is that economic prosperity is facilitated by Domestic Borrowing while External Borrowing must be avoided where possible because of its’ negative effect on GDP. In addition, the effect of Cost of Borrowing on GDP is purely dependent on the appropriateness of use of borrowed fund. The study recommended that government should first explore internal sources of fund whenever borrowing is unavoidable in preference to foreign/external sources, reduce or avoid external borrowing and properly apply the borrowed fund for its economy to prosper.

Assessment of the Impact of Financial Intermediation on Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria from 1996 to 2022

This paper assesses financial intermediation in Nigeria and how it has impacted economic growth. The study sourced time series data between 1996 and 2022 from the Central Bank of Nigeria and utilized econometric techniques using Ordinary least square regression, Error correction model, and Pairwise Causality to assess the impact of the financial intermediation institutions on the growth of the nation's Gross Domestic Product. The paper focused on banks, capital markets, and the insurance industry being significant institutions in the financial system. The GDP is the dependent variable, while Credit to the Private Sector as a percentage of GDP (CPS/GDP) and Total Savings as a percentage of GDP (TS/GDP) were used as proxies for assessing banks' contributions to economic growth. Stock market capitalization was used as a proxy for the contribution of the capital market to economic growth, and Insurance industry assets were used as a proxy for the insurance industry's contribution to economic growth. The study revealed no co-integration and long-term relationship between economic growth and the financial intermediation variables. There was, however, a unidirectional causal relationship between economic growth and the banks and the capital markets. There was no causality between economic growth and insurance. We recommend that policymakers undertake periodic reforms to deepen the capacity of the institutions to support de-risking and funding small and medium enterprises and the agricultural value chain, which are vital channels for diversifying the economy. The regulatory authorities are pivotal in upscaling the institutions' contribution to economic development.

Tax Revenue and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Bi-Directional Approach

The study examined the bi-directional effect of tax revenue and economic growth in Nigeria from 2011 to 2022 by employing total tax revenue and nominal Gross Domestic Product at current price. Data was extracted from 2011 to 2022 quarterly reports published on the website of the Central Bank of Nigeria, National Bureau of Statistics and Federal Inland Revenue Service. Unit Root test using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test shows that at the first difference, the variables are stationary at 1%, 5%, and 10% level of significance while Engle and Granger co-integration test reveals significant evidence of a long-run relationship between the variables of the study’s models. Findings from Error Correction Model (ECM) estimation show that Total Tax Revenue has a positive and significant effect on Nominal Gross Domestic Product (t-stat 4.777; P-value 0.000) and Nominal Gross Domestic Product has a positive and significant effect on Total Tax Revenue (t-stat 5.552; P-value 0.000). The Granger Causality test revealed that there exists a positive and significant bi-directional effect between Total Tax Revenue and Nominal Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria. The study concludes that tax revenue has a positive and significant effect on economic growth and economic growth has a positive and significant effect on tax revenue. The study recommends that the government ensure continuous economic growth by providing human capital, security, employment, and foreign investment. This would increase the standard of living of citizens, increase tax payer’s income, and attract foreign investors who would pay tax on their income and properties.

Impact of Domestic Investment on Economic Growth in Nigeria

This study investigated the impact of domestic investment on economic growth in Nigeria from the period 1990 to 2022. The dimensions that were used to proxy the independent variable are domestic investment, total exports, interest rate and inflation while real gross domestic product was used to proxy economic growth which is the dependent variable. Data used were sourced from secondary sources which includes; World Bank development indicators for various years and the Central Bank of Nigeria annual statistical bulletin. The Statistical Software employed to analyse the data was the eviews9. The results of the Unit root test show that domestic investment, total exports, interest rate and real gross domestic variables evaluated are all stationary after first difference- I(1)- while inflation rate was stationary at level- I(0)-. The Autoregressive distributed lag was used to analyze data. The results of the Autoregressive distributed lag estimates reveal that in both the long run and short run, domestic investment, total exports, coefficients have positive impact on real gross domestic product in Nigeria and both are also statistically significant at five percent level of significance in the long-run in Nigeria. Since it was found that increase domestic investment and total exports bring about economic growth, the study therefore, recommends amongst others that appropriate trade policies in favour of export expansion should be encouraged. The federal government of Nigeria should make concerted effort towards export promotion policy by encouraging domestic investors to go into more production. In order to achieve this, there is need for the government to reduce interest rate and tax rate.

Effect of Private Technology Infrastructure Investment on Real Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria

Effect of Private Technology Infrastructure Investment on Real Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria

Macroeconomic effects of government infrastructural expenditure on economic growth in Nigeria

It is replete in the economic literature that government expenditure on infrastructure affects economic growth positively. But some empirical studies have found a contradictory result in many countries. This study, therefore, examines the macroeconomic effects of government infrastructural expenditure on economic growth in Nigeria from 1981-2021. The objectives of the study are to determine the macroeconomic effects of government expenditure on transport and communication system, education, health, and road and construction on economic growth in Nigeria. The study utilized annual time series data on real gross domestic product (RGDP) and selected explanatory variables which include: government expenditure on transportation and communication, government expenditure on education, government expenditure on health and government expenditure on road and construction. The study adopted the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) data analysis technique based on augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test which indicates that the variables are integrated of I(0) and I(1). Findings reveal that, in the long run, while government expenditure on health, and road and construction have significant but negative and positive effects on real gross domestic product respectively, government expenditure on transportation and communication, and education have positive and insignificant effects on real gross domestic product in Nigeria. The short run findings produced mixed results with one striking revelation that previous value of RGDP (RGDP at lag 1) generates positive effect on RGDP. The study, therefore, concludes that government expenditure on infrastructure affects economic growth in Nigeria within the period under review, and recommends that rational allocation and effective management of public funds should be made on infrastructure with strict supervision of approved public projects.

Petroleum Revenue and Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria

Petroleum Revenue and Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria

An Assessment of the Relationship between Stock market Development and Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in some selected African Countries

The stock market supplies equity and a direct form of finance to prospect investors for economic reasons. This function qualifies it to work as an essential long-term lubricant in the economic growth progress. The study examines the relationship between stock market development and monetary policy on economic growth in the major oil producing African countries namely Nigeria, Angola, Algeria and Libya. The panel unit root tests show that real gross domestic product, market capitalization and interest rate are integrated of order one while money supply is integrated of order zero. The fixed effect model shows that market capitalization, money supply and interest rate have positive and statistically significant effect on the real gross domestic product in Nigeria, Angola, Algeria and Libya. The study concludes that stock market development has a positive effect on economic growth in the selected African countries and monetary policy has a positive effect on economic growth in the selected African countries. The recommends that African countries especially Nigeria, Angola, Algeria and Libya should advance buying and selling of stock by encouraging more companies and securities to be listed in the stock exchange for more equity capitalization and finally this could lead to increase in economic growth in their region, expansionary monetary policy should implemented in African countries in order to boast economic variables and achieved higher economic growth.

Comparative analysis of Fuzzy Regression and Fuzzy ARIMA models for forecasting real gross domestic product of Nigeria

Over the years, a number of studies have been conducted in terms of forecasting the real gross domestic product (GDP) of Nigeria. The GDP growth rate measures the annual growth rate in percentage of the monetary value of all finished goods and services made within a country. It is an important indicator of economic growth. This paper presents Fuzzy ARIMA and Regression to determine the interval of possibility for predicting the real GDP. The Fuzzy ARIMA (FARIMA) and Fuzzy Regression (FR) methods requires small size data as compared to the classical time series. Comparison between FARIMA and Fuzzy Regression with a threshold level of zero (ℎ=0) is performed by calibrating the models on existing data. The minimum values of the total spreads for FARIMA and FR are 0.791 and 4.077 respectively. In addition, the MAPE values for FARIMA is smaller than that of FR. Furthermore, the results indicate that the FARIMA gives a narrower interval of possibility for prediction than the FR.

Tax Revenue Generation and Economic Growth: A Pre and Post Treasury Single Account Implementation in Nigeria

The main objective of this study is to examine the relationship between tax revenues generated and the economic growth of Nigeria in a pre and post treasury single account implementation era. The study specifically assessed the relationship between Value Added Tax and the economic growth of Nigeria in a pre and post TSA implementation periods. It also determined the relationship between Company Income Tax and economic growth in a pre and post TSA era in Nigeria. The study also verified the relationship between Customs and Excise Duty and the economic growth in Nigeria, in a pre and post TSA implementation period in Nigeria. The population for the study was Nigerian economy and the sample size was six years of pre TSA era and Six years of post TSA implementation era. This sample was selected because TSA is just six years old in Nigeria and to compare the pre and post, the researcher had to take the same number of years for meaningful comparison. Three hypotheses were formulated for the study in null form using the Gross Domestic Product(GDP) as the dependent variable on Tax revenues comprising Value Added Tax(VAT), Company Income Tax (CIT) and Customs and Excise Duty (CED) which are the independent variables. Data for the study was collected from statistical records and bulletins from Central bank of Nigeria and Federal inland revenue bulletins as secondary data for the period of the study. The analysis tool for the study was a Regression and correlation analysis tools which aimed at establishing the relationship between the economic growth of Nigeria and the Tax revenue sources used as the independent variables prior to the introduction of TSA and after the introduction of TSA in Nigeria. The result shows that before the implementation of TSA, VAT has a positive and insignificant effect on the GDP while CIT had a positive and insignificant effect on GDP and CED had a negative and insignificant effect on GDP in Nigeria. On the post TSA implementation

Public Expenditure and Economic Development in Nigeria

This study empirically investigated the effect of public expenditure on economic development in Nigeria from 1970-2020. To achieve this objective theoretical, conceptual and empirical literature on public expenditure and economic development were reviewed. Public expenditure was proxied by capital and recurrent expenditure while economic development was proxied by gross domestic product and human development index. Secondary data was obtained from central bank statistical bulletin and United Nations development programme reports various years. The study adopts the used of ordinary least square regression statistical tools to test the formulated hypotheses with the aid of Eviews 10 econometric statistical software. The findings show that capital expenditure has positive and significant effect on gross domestic product in Nigeria. Empirical evidence revealed that recurrent expenditure has positive and significant effect on gross domestic product in Nigeria. Empirical evidence shows that capital expenditure has positive and significant impact on human development index in Nigeria. Empirical evidence indicates that recurrent expenditure has positive and insignificant effect on human development index in Nigeria. The study concludes that public expenditure has positive and significant effect on economic development in Nigeria. The study recommends among others that government should improved macroeconomic policies through creation of stable economic policies of low inflation and positive economic growth. The government should ensure free market supply site policies through deregulation, lower taxes, privatization and less regulation to stimulate private sector investment in Nigeria. The government should implement interventionist supply site policies through increase spending on public goods such as health care, education, public transport and massive infrastructural development. Government should ensure diversification from oil and gas to manufactu

Exchange rate fluctuations and manufacturing output: Stylized evidence in Nigeria

One of the key engines of growth in many countries is the manufacturing sector, whose performance is impacted by the movement of the local currency. The manufacturing sector also offers opportunities like increased commerce, innovation, competitiveness, increasing exports, and productivity, which will only be possible when exchange rate is in the form of currency appreciation. The purpose of this study, therefore, was to investigate the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on Nigerian manufacturing output. The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity technique was used in the study in order to examine the exchange rate oscillations. The result of the model estimation revealed that there is no persistence of shocks in the volatility of the exchange rate in the Nigerian economy. The business cycle stylized facts were also used to examine exchange rate volatility and the result established that exchange rate is highly volatile and has a negative effect on manufacturing output in Nigeria. The Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Bounds test was used to establish the long-run relationship and the result showed that there is a long-run relationship between exchange rate and manufacturing output. The variance decomposition and Impulse Response function were employed and the result revealed that exchange rate fluctuation has a negative impact on manufacturing gross domestic product in Nigeria. In practice, based on the results of the study, it can be recommended to the monetary authorities to constantly monitor the exchange rate fluctuations in order to create policies that are well-informed and match the exchange rate to the actual needs of manufacturing sector in order to boost its output

Concept of Blue Economy - a Qualitative Review for Sustainable Economic Development in Nigeria

Ever since the Blue economy concept emerged, there were speculations on its potentials to diversify Nigeria’s economy and be used as alternative source of revenue. This paper qualitatively and descriptively examined the prospect and challenges of the concept through reviews and practices by nations that have ventured into it. It identified the areas of opportunities and strength by interviewing selected community members across selected coaster states in Nigeria. Multi-stage sampling technique was adopted to select Apapa in Lagos, Okerenkoko in Delta, Oron in Akwa Ibom, Agge in Bayelsa and Bonny in Rivers State. Secondary data was also used to determine the correlation between revenue from the maritime industry and Gross Domestic Product of Nigeria. It can be observed that, Nigeria stands to benefit a lot from Blue economy concept from hydro- electricity, pharmaceutical, exportation, tourism, e.t.c. However, it may be a dead end investment if care is not taken to properly weigh it opportunities, cost and financial requirements. Arrays of factors must be put into consideration before embarking on it like security, fund, bunkering, smuggling and Foreign Direct Investment. Ocean and maritime resources should be explored without degradation to marine ecosystem.

Effect of Government Expenditure and Value Added Tax on Economic Growth in Nigeria

The study seeks to examine the relationship between government expenditure and VAT on economic growth of Nigeria. Both the exploratory and ex-post facto designs were adopted in this study. The study population consist of 28 years period given the number of years the data was collected. Using a consensus sampling method, the 28 years are used as sample size. The study used the ordinary least square regression technique, specifically the Vector Autoregressive model for testing the hypotheses stated. The first findings revealed that, government expenditure has a positive insignificant effect on gross domestic product of Nigeria While, the second hypotheses tested revealed that, value added tax has a positive significant effect on gross domestic product of Nigeria. As a result, it is recommended that, government expenditure has not translated to the needed improvement in gross domestic product of Nigeria. This might be as a result of misappropriation of funds and corruption or the political will to supervise expenditure on development items. It is recommended that government to set in place financial discipline measures that regulates payment for contracts and other expenditure such that these funds allocated for development to spur GDP will be utilized. The government should either maintain the current VAT rates or increase the VAT rates. But they should ensure that social amenities are made available to cushion the effect of VAT increase for revenue generation purposes.