Greenhouse Gas Targets Research Articles

10.F. Skills building seminar: How public health professionals can use the right to health to advance climate action and justice

Abstract The climate crisis is the single biggest threat to global health, peace and security, a crisis multiplier, and a significant driver of health inequalities. In many areas of public health policy, legal action and litigation have delivered significant and long-lasting impacts. In April 2024, the European Court of Human Rights concluded that Switzerland had violated the right to health of older women in Switzerland by failing to meet its past greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets and set future GHG targets. State-of-the-art public health evidence provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change were vital to the Court’s decision, which has implications for all Council of Europe member states, and globally. Rigorous scientific evidence of health harms, including but not limited to heat stress, can inform other climate litigation grounded in the right to health. Public health researchers and practitioners are essential to this litigation. In recognition of this emerging role, in November 2023 the Faculty of Public Health (UK) and the Aletta Jacobs School of Public Health launched ‘From analysis to action: climate change litigation. A guide for public health professionals’ at the 16th European Public Health Conference. The guide was also endorsed by ASPHER, ASPPH, EUPHA, Global Consortium on Climate and Health Education, Global Network for Academic Public Health, Lancet Countdown, Public Health Ethics and Law Global Network, and WFPHA. This workshop will familiarise participants with recent rights-based climate litigation and explore the role of public health professionals in identifying, collecting, storing, assessing and presenting this evidence in a form that is accessible to court officials without medical training. First, there will be short presentations on 1) the role of the law in climate action and the role of scientific evidence of health harms in human rights litigation, and 2) How to collect and use scientific evidence of health harms in climate litigation (15 minutes). Small group discussions will follow, addressing questions such as: The health harm of climate change-related heat stress was a major factor in the 2024 decision of the European Court of Human Rights in KlimaSeniorinnen v. Switzerland: What other health harms could support future cases? In what population groups? What opportunities do you see today for public health researchers and practitioners to compile such evidence to make the most compelling case? How can public health researchers and practitioners work more closely with legal experts and affected communities to bring this evidence to court? (20 minutes) The workshop will conclude with a plenary discussion of these questions and the small group responses. (25 minutes) As a result of the workshop, participants will be better prepared to identify opportunities to contribute compelling evidence of health harms in climate litigation. Key messages • Rigorous scientific evidence of climate change-related health harms is proving central to success in rights-based climate litigation. • Public health professionals have a key role in identifying and presenting compelling evidence of health harms in climate litigation. Speakers/Panelists David Patterson University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands Farhang Tahzib Faculty of Public Health, Haywards Heath, UK

Opportunities of hydrogen and ammonia trade between Europe and MENA

This paper examines the potential role of hydrogen and ammonia in the European energy transition to reach net-zero greenhouse gas targets. We analyse trade of green hydrogen and ammonia between Europe and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), since the latter possesses a high potential for solar power, making it a possible low-cost supplier of these two clean energy carriers. The economic attractiveness of such trade depends on the additional infrastructure and transportation costs required for the roll-out of these clean energy carriers. Using a global integrated assessment model, TIAM-ECN, we evaluate the trade-off between costs and benefits of establishing import-export links between Europe and MENA for hydrogen and ammonia. Our study assumes the availability of hydrogen pipelines from North Africa to Europe, and of liquefied hydrogen and ammonia shipping from the Middle East to Europe. We find that MENA could realize cost savings of over 6% by 2050 through hydrogen and ammonia trade. Furthermore, despite the availability of gaseous green hydrogen from North Africa (via pipelines), for Europe the import of liquefied green hydrogen and ammonia from MENA (through shipping) can also be economically viable. Although this trade could generate cost savings of 40 billion dollars per year by 2050, we conclude that for Europe import diversity, rather than cost savings, could become the main factor driving hydrogen and ammonia imports.

Deconstructing corporate net-zero and climate neutrality targets in the German chemical industry

ABSTRACT Companies are becoming ever more present actors in climate change governance and increasing numbers of mostly multinational companies are pledging to become greenhouse gas neutral, climate neutral, or to reach for net-zero emissions. This article deconstructs net-zero, greenhouse gas and climate neutrality targets of 51 chemical companies in Germany. A brief contextualization of companies as actors in climate change governance and an overview of the German chemical sector as an emission-intensive industry are given. Evaluation criteria for corporate greenhouse gas and climate neutrality targets are developed by comparing seven existing or emerging industry and non-governmental standards and guidelines for (corporate) net-zero, climate and greenhouse gas neutrality. The criteria are then applied to the climate and sustainability targets of 51 companies in the German chemical sector. Results show that the targets vary greatly in terms of their actual definition, the target year and covered emissions, the timeline and planned implementation measures. Only some companies underpin their targets with strategic decarbonization approaches while others rely heavily on offsetting their emissions. This heterogeneity highlights the need for unified assessment criteria and in-depth analysis of corporate climate strategies to rule out greenwashing. Recommendations for target definitions and minimum criteria are given.

Reducing sectoral hard-to-abate emissions to limit reliance on carbon dioxide removal

To reach net-zero greenhouse gas targets, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are required to compensate for residual emissions in the hard-to-abate sectors. However, dependencies on CDR technologies involve environmental, technical and social risks, particularly related to increased land requirements for afforestation and bioenergy crops. Here, using scenarios consistent with the 1.5 °C target, we show that demand and technological interventions can substantially lower emission levels in four hard-to-abate sectors (industry, agriculture, buildings and transport) and reduce reliance on the use of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Specifically, demand measures and technology-oriented measures could limit peak annual bioenergy with carbon capture and storage use to 0.5–2.2 GtCO2e per year and 1.9–7.0 GtCO2e per year, respectively, compared with 10.3 GtCO2e per year in the default 1.5 °C scenario. Dietary change plays a critical role in the demand measures given its large share in residual agricultural emissions.

Economics of enhanced methane oxidation relative to carbon dioxide removal

Mitigating short-term global warming is imperative, and a key strategy involves reducing atmospheric methane (CH4) due to its high radiative forcing and short lifespan. This objective can be achieved through methods such as oxidising methane at its source or implementing enhanced oxidation techniques to reduce atmospheric CH4 concentrations. In this study, we use a range of metrics to analyse both the impact and value of enhanced CH4 oxidation relative to carbon dioxide (CO2) removal on global temperature. We apply these metrics to a select group of model studies of thermal-catalytic, photocatalytic, biological and capture-based oxidation processes under different greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Using a target cost of €220-1000/tCO2 for CO2 removal, our findings indicate that metrics valuing enhanced oxidation techniques based on their contribution to mitigating the long-term level of warming show these techniques are uncompetitive with CO2 removal. However, when using metrics that value enhanced oxidation of CH4 based on its impact on the immediate rate of warming, photocatalytic methods may be competitive with CO2 removal, whereas biofiltration, thermal-catalytic oxidation and capture-based units remain uncompetitive. We conclude that if the policy goal is to target the immediate rate of warming, it may be more valuable to incentivise CO2 removal and enhanced oxidation of methane under separate GHG targets.

Segmenting consumers of meat and dairy products from five European countries: Implications for promoting sustainable food choices

Accelerating the transition of agri-food systems towards higher sustainability requires greater understanding of consumers' decision-making related to sustainable food choices, together with competing drivers which may result in unsustainable food choice demand. Meat and dairy production systems negatively contribute to greenhouse gas targets, unless sustainable production methods are applied, and these are understood by consumers and used in food choices. The psychological factors determining consumers' attitudes towards sustainably produced meat and dairy products were assessed. Data were collected through an online survey across five European countries (Czechia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom) (n = 2490) in November 2021. The results showed consumers perceived food sustainability to be less important than sensory and healthiness attributes. UK consumers showed the strongest intentions to increase consumption of sustainably produced meat and dairy products. In contrast, Swiss consumers demonstrated the weakest intentions. A two-stage cluster analysis based on consumers' perceived attribute importance identified four distinct segments: low food involvement (19.6 %), high food involvement (31.9 %), price-sensitive (23.2 %), and health- and sustainability-involved (25.3 %) consumer segments. Respondents in low food involvement and price-sensitive consumer segments tended to be younger and have lower environmental preservation attitudes and were more prevalent in Switzerland and Czechia. Those in high food involvement and health- and sustainability-involved consumer segments perceived higher importance of food sustainability and were more prevalent in Spain and Sweden. These respondents expressed greater intentions to increase consumption of sustainably produced meat and dairy products, at the same time being more likely to recognise the utility of sustainability labelling information. Animal welfare information was perceived to be most important for respondents in all the segments with the exception of those in the price-sensitive consumer segment. Building on the results, recommendations for promoting consumer sustainable food choices are proposed.

Reducing EU cattle numbers to reach greenhouse gas targets

Reducing EU cattle numbers to reach greenhouse gas targets

The Relationship between the Greenhouse Gas and Energy Target Management System and Foreign Ownership: Investor Sensitivity to the Implementation of the System

The Relationship between the Greenhouse Gas and Energy Target Management System and Foreign Ownership: Investor Sensitivity to the Implementation of the System

States Advance Climate Risk Disclosure and ESG‐Related Legislation During 2023

In my August 2023 column, I outlined the climate risk disclosure and related environmental, social, and governance (ESG) requirements proposed by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).1 It closed with an outlook for 2023. What I did not envision was the degree to which states would take action regarding greenhouse gas (GHG) disclosures to facilitate compliance with their state GHG targets. This column summarizes these actions, with emphasis on the most recent legislation passed by California, together with ESG‐related legislation to define the fiduciary responsibilities of state pension funds.

What determines climate ambition? Analysing NDC enhancement with a mixed-method design

The 2015 Paris Agreement relies on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to outline each country’s policies and plans for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To strengthen global climate action and achieve the Agreement’s temperature goal, it is crucial to enhance the ambition level of NDCs every 5 years. While previous studies have explored the ambition of initial NDCs, limited research has delved into the factors driving the enhancement or lack thereof in NDCs’ emission reduction plans. This study employs a mixed-method design to investigate the determinants of NDC enhancement. First, we analyse the updated or revised NDCs of 111 countries using quantitative methods. Second, we conduct qualitative case studies focusing on Brazil and South Africa. Our findings reveal that countries that engaged in stakeholder consultations with civil society, business, and labour groups prior to developing their updated or revised NDCs were more likely to enhance their greenhouse gas reduction targets. These results are further supported by the case studies. South Africa conducted comprehensive consultations and submitted an enhanced GHG target, while Brazil, which did not arrange open consultations, did not improve its target. This study underscores the significance of comprehensive and transparent stakeholder engagement processes, highlighting their potential to drive enhanced NDCs. By involving diverse stakeholders, including civil society, business, and labour groups, countries can foster greater ambition and effectiveness in their climate action, ultimately contributing to the global effort to combat climate change.

Reaching IMO 2050 GHG Targets Exclusively Through Energy Efficiency Measures

_ Maritime transport accounts for around 3% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Well-to-Wake). These GHG emissions must be reduced by at least 50% in absolute values by 2050 to contribute to the ambitions of the Paris Agreement signed in 2015. Switching to zero-carbon fuels made from renewable sources (hydro, wind, or solar) is seen by many as the most promising option to deliver the desired GHG reductions. However, renewable energy is a scarce resource that gives a much larger GHG reduction spent within other sectors. This study explores how to reach the IMO 2050 GHG targets exclusively through energy efficiency measures. The results indicate that by combining wind-assisted ship propulsion (WASP) with a slender hull form, fuel consumption and GHG emissions can be reduced by 30–35%, at a negative abatement cost for speeds exceeding 8 knots. Where the cost saving increases with the speed because at higher speeds, the fuel accounts for a higher share of the total cost, which implies that the cost saving goes from zero at 8 knots, to 5% reduction at 11 knots average speed to 14% reduction of total cost with 15 knots average speed. In comparison, GHG reductions through zero-carbon fuels will increase transport costs by 50–200%. Introduction From the first days of our civilization, sea transport has enabled regional and global trades. Today, sea transport accounts for 80% of the global trade measured in ton-miles (UNCTAD 2021) and 3% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions measured Well-to-Wake (Lindstad et al. 2021). More than 40% of this sea trade is performed by dry bulkers, making them the real workhorses of the sea. Even though sea transport is energy efficient compared to other transport modes, all sectors need to reduce their GHG emissions by at least 50% in absolute values by 2050 to contribute to the Paris Agreement (UNFCCC 2015). According to Bouman et al. (2017), the desired energy and GHG reductions can be achieved through: Design and other technical improvements of ships; Operational improvements; Fuels with zero or low GHG footprints; or a combination of these.

THE UPPER PERMIAN ZECHSTEIN SUPERGROUP OF NE ENGLAND AND THE ADJACENT SOUTHERN NORTH SEA: A REVIEW OF ITS ROLE IN THE UK'S ENERGY TRANSITION

As the United Kingdom reduces its CO2 emissions in order to meet its 2050 net zero greenhouse gas targets, there will be a significant evolution of the UK's energy mix. The reliance on hydrocarbons will decrease while there is predicted to be an increase in low carbon energy sources such as renewables and nuclear. In order to decarbonise and achieve the net zero emissions targets while concurrently producing enough energy to provide for national energy needs, large‐scale, low carbon energy generation projects need to be developed alongside energy storage facilities to provide flexibility within a low carbon energy supply. Robust CCUS programmes will need be developed in order to capture and store unavoidable carbon dioxide emissions. The subsurface geology of the UK provides opportunities for the development of low carbon energy generation, energy storage and CCS, and the Upper Permian Zechstein Supergroup deposited in eastern England and offshore in the Southern North Sea is a potential host for these new developments. In NE England, salt cavern gas storage sites have been developed in thick Zechstein evaporites since the mid 20th centrury. In this paper we present new isopach maps and well correlation panels which will help to outline optimal locations for the development of additional salt caverns for gas storage. A review of the Zechstein Supergroup indicates that it does not exhibit great potential for the development of CCS, due both to its complex reservoir characteristics and to difficulties with both subsurface imaging and monitoring. However thick Zechstein evaporites could provide an excellent seal for CO2 storage in the underlying Lower Permian Rotliegend Group.

Can the Hemp Industry Improve the Sustainability Performance of the Australian Construction Sector?

Sustainable construction should navigate the trade-offs between minimising pressure on scarce resources and the environment and maximising economic viability and human wellbeing through the whole building lifetime. In the pursuit of improving the environmental performance of the construction sector, there is growing interest in substituting conventional materials with bio-based materials. In the last decade, the use of industrial hemp (Cannabis sativa L.) as an aggregate for bio-based materials has attracted significant attention because of its ability to sequester carbon dioxide (CO2) during plant development, its fast-growing nature, the reduced level of agricultural input requirements and its good technical properties, which could potentially result in better sustainability performance across their life cycle. This review discusses the outcomes published in the scientific literature that have dealt with the use of hemp-based construction materials in the global and Australian construction sectors, with particular emphasis on the evaluation of their sustainability aspects (i.e., environmental, economic and social) throughout their lifetime. Relevant studies were identified from a structured keyword search in the Scopus database. The results found that research on hemp-based materials has mainly focused on assessing the environmental dimension, with an emphasis on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and little consideration for economic and social aspects. The existing literature showed a strong geographical bias towards Europe; thus, the outcomes of the life cycle studies conducted may not be representative of Australia. In that line, the development of a region specific of the life cycle sustainability approach is recommended to evaluate whether hemp-based construction materials can assist in achieving GHG targets in a sustainable manner in Australia.

Minimizing habitat conflicts in meeting net-zero energy targets in the western United States

The scale and pace of energy infrastructure development required to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are unprecedented, yet our understanding of how to minimize its potential impacts on land and ocean use and natural resources is inadequate. Using high-resolution energy and land-use modeling, we developed spatially explicit scenarios for reaching an economy-wide net-zero GHG target in the western United States by 2050. We found that among net-zero policy cases that vary the rate of transportation and building electrification and use of fossil fuels, nuclear generation, and biomass, the "High Electrification" case, which utilizes electricity generation the most efficiently, had the lowest total land and ocean area requirements (84,000 to 105,000 km2 vs. 88,100 to 158,000 km2 across all other cases). Different levels of land and ocean use protections were applied to determine their effect on siting, environmental and social impacts, and energy costs. Meeting the net-zero target with stronger land and ocean use protections did not significantly alter the share of different energy generation technologies and only increased system costs by 3%, but decreased additional interstate transmission capacity by 20%. Yet, failure to avoid development in areas with high conservation value is likely to result in substantial habitat loss.

온실가스 감축을 위한 IMO 초기전략에 대한 국내 해운업계의 인식에 관한 연구

Purpose : This research investigates the perceptions held by Korean shipping firms on the initial strategies of the International Maritime Organization(IMO) to reduce greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions by ships. Research design, data and methodology : This research collected data from interviews on the importance and performance of 14measures set by the IMO to reduce GHG emissions. Quantitative data were evaluated by using Importance-Performance Analysis(IPA), leading to categorizing the IMO measures into three groups of strategies. The evaluation is further interpreted by qualitative interview data. Results : Measures to improve the energy efficiency of ships and operations as well as market-based measures fall into a “keep up the good work” strategy owing to high importance and performance. In addition, a ‘concentrate-here’ strategy requiring better performance included NAP development and R&D support among the governance measures as well as mid- and long-term alternative energy measures. Conclusions : This paper’s implications come from empirical research on the perceptions held by shipping firms on the measures by the IMO to challenge GHG targets.

Value for Money: Local Authority Action on Clean Energy for Net Zero

Local authorities are well placed to realise co-benefits of integrated local energy systems; however, in the UK they have no statutory energy mandate. Planning and developing clean energy are discretionary, and persistent budget reductions, combined with the lack of strategic direction from the UK government for more localised energy provision, limit local capacity, expertise and resources. Nevertheless, some local authorities have led energy initiatives but have been unable to stimulate investment at the pace and scale required to align with net zero greenhouse gas targets. Using evidence from such initiatives, this paper discusses the institutional changes needed to enable local authorities to act. It examines existing climate and local energy plans, and their integral socio-economic value. Using this evidence, investment opportunities from locally led net zero programmes are identified. EU technical assistance funds provided a particularly successful route to local energy developments: based on value of investment secured against initial funding, it is estimated that GBP 1 million technical assistance funding to every local authority would lead to GBP 15 billion investment in local energy. Other potential funding innovations are assessed and the paper concludes with recommendations for policy and resource measures needed to convert local ambition into clean energy and energy saving investment at scale.

Anticipatory Regulation: Lessons from fracking and insights for Greenhouse Gas Removal innovation and governance

The UK has incorporated a net-zero emissions target into national legislation. A range of Greenhouse Gas Removal (GGR) options will likely play a key role in the government's strategy toward meeting this goal. Governance frameworks will need to be developed to support GGR development and manage the potential impacts, particularly those on the diverse local communities where the various options will be deployed.This research examines the UK's experience with development and regulation of shale gas - using the technologies of hydraulic fracturing combined with horizontal drilling - with a focus on governance and the implications for the development and widespread deployment of GGR. We evaluate the approach used against the principles of good governance, which emphasizes the critical role that local communities and publics play in deployment.The UK's top-down governance of shale gas highlights the risk of regulation driven by assumptions about national and local need, value and a lack of transparency or meaningful stakeholder participation in decision-making. The use of existing legislative frameworks for conventional fossil fuel extraction proved inadequate to address unanticipated consequences such as induced seismicity. Moreover, the support for unconventional hydrocarbons in UK energy policy appeared inconsistent with the goal of meeting greenhouse gas targets and passing significant legislation in 2019 to bring carbon emissions to net-zero.To gain social acceptance at the local level, deployment of new technologies needs to be evaluated from a variety of framings and viewpoints. Where new technologies or practices are deployed, such as fracking and GGR, the knowledge and understanding of the impacts - a fundamental principle of good governance - may be less certain or more contested. Early inclusion and participation of local communities would allow issues of concern to inform how trials are undertaken and regulation designed. This anticipatory and participatory approach fits with the principles of good governance and procedural justice, which can help build the trust needed to ensure social legitimacy leading to development and implementation of technological innovations.

Path to net zero is critical to climate outcome

Net zero greenhouse gas targets have become a central element for climate action. However, most company and government pledges focus on the year that net zero is reached, with limited awareness of how critical the emissions pathway is in determining the climate outcome in both the near- and long-term. Here we show that different pathways of carbon dioxide and methane—the most prominent long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gases, respectively—can lead to nearly 0.4 °C of warming difference in midcentury and potential overshoot of the 2 °C target, even if they technically reach global net zero greenhouse gas emissions in 2050. While all paths achieve the Paris Agreement temperature goals in the long-term, there is still a 0.2 °C difference by end-of-century. We find that early action to reduce both emissions of carbon dioxide and methane simultaneously leads to the best climate outcomes over all timescales. We therefore recommend that companies and countries supplement net zero targets with a two-basket set of interim milestones to ensure that early action is taken for both carbon dioxide and methane. A one-basket approach, such as the standard format for Nationally Determined Contributions, is not sufficient because it can lead to a delay in methane mitigation.

Solely economic mitigation strategy suggests upward revision of nationally determined contributions

Solely economic mitigation strategy suggests upward revision of nationally determined contributions

Impact of scene-specific enhancement spectra on matched filter greenhouse gas retrievals from imaging spectroscopy

Matched filter techniques have been widely used for retrieval of greenhouse gas enhancements from imaging spectroscopy datasets. While multiple algorithmic techniques and refinements have been proposed, the greenhouse gas target spectrum used for concentration enhancement estimation has remained largely unaltered since the introduction of quantitative matched filter retrievals. The magnitude of retrieved methane and carbon dioxide enhancements, and thereby integrated mass enhancements (IME) and estimated flux of point-source emitters, is heavily dependent on this target spectrum. Current standard use of molecular absorption coefficients to create unit enhancement target spectra does not account for absorption by background concentrations of greenhouse gases, solar and sensor geometry, or atmospheric water vapor absorption. We introduce geometric and atmospheric parameters into the generation of scene-specific unit enhancement spectra to provide target spectra that are compatible with all greenhouse gas retrieval matched filter techniques. Specifically, we use radiative transfer modeling to model four parameters that are expected to change between scenes: solar zenith angle, column water vapor, ground elevation, and sensor altitude. These parameter values are well defined, with low variation within a single scene. A benchmark dataset consisting of ten AVIRIS-NG airborne imaging spectrometer scenes was used to compare IME retrieved using a matched filter algorithm. For methane plumes, IME resulting from use of standard, generic enhancement spectra varied from −22 to +28.7% compared to scene-specific enhancement spectra. Due to differences in spectral shape between the generic and scene-specific enhancement spectra, differences in methane plume IME were linked to surface spectral characteristics in addition to geometric and atmospheric parameters. IME differences were much larger for carbon dioxide plumes, with generic enhancement spectra producing integrated mass enhancements −76.1 to −48.1% compared to scene-specific enhancement spectra. Fluxes calculated from these integrated enhancements would vary by the same percentages, assuming equivalent wind conditions. Methane and carbon dioxide IME were most sensitive to changes in solar zenith angle and ground elevation. We introduce an interpolation approach that can efficiently generate scene-specific unit enhancement spectra for given sets of parameters. Scene-specific target spectra can improve confidence in greenhouse gas retrievals and flux estimates across collections of scenes with diverse geometric and atmospheric conditions.