As urbanization progresses rapidly, cities encounter significant environmental and energy challenges. Photovoltaic-Green Roof (PV-GR) technology offers an innovative strategy with the potential to alleviate urban carbon emissions and resource scarcity issues. However, the carbon reduction potential of PV-GR technology remains unclear. Hence, this study aims to comprehensively assess the carbon reduction potential of PV-GR. This is achieved by integrating Geographic Information Systems (GIS), lifecycle assessment, the Denitrification-Decomposition Model (DNDC), and solar simulation. Using Fuzhou City as a case study, the research indicates: (1) Fuzhou has approximately 72.9 km2 of rooftops suitable for PV-GR development, with an annual biomass production from herbaceous plants estimated at around 2.958 × 107 kg. The annual electricity production under the baseline scenario reaches 9,678 GWh, satisfying about 17 % of Fuzhou’s annual electricity demand. Moreover, in an optimistic scenario, electricity generation rises to 10,176 GWh, and even in a pessimistic scenario, it could achieve 9,471 GWh. (2) In the baseline scenario, Fuzhou’s PV-GR annual carbon reduction is estimated at 6.678 × 106 t CO2, potentially offsetting about 11.14 % of the city’s annual carbon emissions. In an optimistic scenario, this reduction increases to 7.022 × 106 t CO2, and even in a pessimistic scenario, the reduction remains significant at 6.535 × 106 t CO2. (3) Over a 30-year lifecycle, the carbon emissions from PV-GR are projected to total 3.092 × 107 t CO2, accounting for 51.34 % of Fuzhou’s annual emissions. In an ideal baseline scenario, the net carbon reduction over the lifecycle of PV-GR could total 1.703×108 t CO2, effectively offsetting 282.76 % of Fuzhou’s annual carbon emissions. Additionally, scenario simulations suggest that by 2030, potential electricity generation from PV-GR could increase to between 10,463 GWh and 10,901 GWh, due to changes in power structure and urban expansion. Overall, this study demonstrates that PV-GR holds considerable potential for carbon reduction.
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