Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem Research Articles

A unified approach to long-term population monitoring of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Long-term wildlife research and monitoring programs strive to maintain consistent data collections and analytical methods. Incorporating new techniques is important but can render data sets incongruent and limit their potential to discern trends in demographic parameters. Integrated population models (IPMs) can address these limitations by combining data sources that may span different periods into a unified statistical framework while providing a holistic view of population dynamics. We developed an IPM in a Bayesian framework for grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We coupled demographic data with multiple, independent population count data to link annual changes in abundance with vital rates over 4 decades (1983–2023). Abundance increased threefold from an estimated 270 individuals in 1984 to 1030 individuals in 2023. Parameter estimates indicated survival of bears ≥2 years of age was high, contributing to robust population growth during the 1980s (λ = 1.023 [50 % interquartile range = 0.993–1.082]) and 1990s (λ = 1.064 [1.023–1.103]). A slowing of population growth started around 2000 (2000s: λ = 1.030 [0.989–1.068]) and continued into the 2010s (λ = 1.021 [0.985–1.057]), due primarily to reductions in survival of bears <2 years of age. These findings corroborate previous research that identified density-dependent effects as a likely cause. The IPM framework provided greater certainty and understanding regarding the dynamic demographic characteristics of the population and serves as a powerful monitoring tool for this long-lived species. Implementation of the IPM allows timely dissemination of demographic data to help inform adaptive management strategies and policy decisions necessary for the continued management and conservation of this population. This robust and flexible monitoring system allows scientists to investigate the effects of a changing ecosystem on population dynamics, incorporate new data sources and statistical models, and respond to changes in monitoring needs for the population. We highlight the efficacy of the IPM in estimating and tracking demographic parameters for a long-lived species, while accommodating shifts in monitoring techniques and data collections typical of long-term wildlife conservation programs worldwide.

Developing new tools to de‐risk wildlife occupancy on private lands

AbstractPrivate lands support much of the biodiversity in North America, but supporting wildlife can be costly for landowners. Innovative tools are needed to reduce the risks that wildlife pose to private landowners while conserving biodiversity. Here, we present a range of innovative tools that have effectively been used to “de‐risk” wildlife occupancy of private lands in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Lessons learned from these risk reduction strategies inform conservation more broadly by highlighting the importance of economic and risk‐management considerations to wildlife conservation on private lands. Incorporating de‐risking tools into the wildlife conservation toolbox can help conservation practitioners more strategically allocate resources to benefit wildlife and the private lands that help support them.

Infection-nutrition feedbacks: fat supports pathogen clearance but pathogens reduce fat in a wild mammal.

Though far less obvious than direct effects (clinical disease or mortality), the indirect influences of pathogens are difficult to estimate but may hold fitness consequences. Here, we disentangle the directional relationships between infection and energetic reserves, evaluating the hypotheses that energetic reserves influence infection status of the host and that infection elicits costs to energetic reserves. Using repeated measures of fat reserves and infection status in individual bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, we documented that fat influenced ability to clear pathogens (Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae) and infection with respiratory pathogens was costly to fat reserves. Costs of infection approached, and in some instances exceeded, costs of rearing offspring to independence in terms of reductions to fat reserves. Fat influenced probability of clearing pathogens, pregnancy and over-winter survival; from an energetic perspective, an animal could survive for up to 23 days on the amount of fat that was lost to high levels of infection. Cost of pathogens may amplify trade-offs between reproduction and survival. In the absence of an active outbreak, the influence of resident pathogens often is overlooked. Nevertheless, the energetic burden of pathogens likely has consequences for fitness and population dynamics, especially when food resources are insufficient.

Alignment between water inputs and vegetation green‐up reduces next year's runoff efficiency

AbstractIn the western United States, water supplies largely originate as snowmelt from forested land. Forests impact the water balance of these headwater streams, yet most predictive runoff models do not explicitly account for changing snow‐vegetation dynamics. Here, we present a case study showing how warmer temperatures and changing forests in the Henrys Fork of the Snake River, a seasonally snow‐covered headwater basin in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, have altered the relationship between April 1st snow water equivalent (SWE) and summer streamflow. Since the onset and recovery of severe drought in the early 2000s, predictive models based on pre‐drought relationships over‐predict summer runoff in all three headwater tributaries of the Henrys Fork, despite minimal changes in precipitation or snow accumulation. Compared with the pre‐drought period, late springs and summers (May–September) are warmer and vegetation is greener with denser forests due to recovery from multiple historical disturbances. Shifts in the alignment of snowmelt and energy availability due to warmer temperatures may reduce runoff efficiency by changing the amount of precipitation that goes to evapotranspiration versus runoff and recharge. To quantify the alignment between snowmelt and energy on a timeframe needed for predictive models, we propose a new metric, the Vegetation‐Water Alignment Index (VWA), to characterize the synchrony of vegetation greenness and snowmelt and rain inputs. New predictive models show that in addition to April 1st SWE, the previous year's VWA and summer reference evapotranspiration are the most significant predictors of runoff in each watershed and provide more predictive power than traditionally used metrics. These results suggest that the timing of snowmelt relative to the start of the growing season affects not only annual partitioning of streamflow, but can also determine the groundwater storage state that dictates runoff efficiency the following spring.

Forage senescence and disease influence elk pregnancy across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

AbstractFor various temperate ungulate species, recent research has highlighted the potential for spring vegetation phenology (“green‐up”) to influence individual condition, with purported benefits to population productivity. However, few studies have been able to measure the benefit on vital rates directly, and fewer still have investigated the comparative influence of other phenological periods on ungulate vital rates. In this study, we tracked phenological changes throughout the duration of the growing season and examined how their timing affected the probability of pregnancy in an ungulate population. We did this for elk (Cervus canadensis) across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) by sampling 1106 adult females in winter at 25 sites over a 13‐year period and assessing sources of variation in pregnancy using a Bayesian hierarchical model. Pregnancy rates were generally high across the GYE (82.4%), and the primary influences on probability of pregnancy were the timing of vegetation senescence (“brown‐down”) in autumn and exposure to the reproductive disease brucellosis. Earlier forage brown‐down in fall negatively influenced the probability of pregnancy of elk aged 6–9 years by an estimated 17.2% within the range (ca. 32 days) of observed brown‐down end dates. While summer habitat quality has been inferred to influence elk pregnancy previously, our findings specify the key influence of foraging conditions later in the seasonal cycle, immediately before the breeding season. The reproductive disease brucellosis was also an important factor, reducing the probability of pregnancy by 12.4% in elk in the 6‐ to 9‐year age class. Because pregnancy was tested before most disease‐induced abortions occur, the apparent mechanism for this effect is a prolonged reduction in fertility beyond the period of initial exposure in which fetal mortality is typically expected. Our results prompt greater scrutiny of the combined effects of late‐season phenology and disease on reproductive rates and population productivity in temperate ungulates.

Climate Change-Driven Cumulative Mountain Pine Beetle-Caused Whitebark Pine Mortality in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

An aerial survey method called the Landscape Assessment System (LAS) was used to assess mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae)-caused mortality of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (59,000 km2; GYE). This consisted of 11,942 km of flightlines, along which 4434 geo-tagged, oblique aerial photos were captured and processed. A mortality rating of none to severe (0–4.0 recent attack or 5.0–5.4 old attack) was assigned to each photo based on the amount of red (recent attack) and gray (old attack) trees visible. The method produced a photo inventory of 74 percent of the GYE whitebark pine distribution. For the remaining 26 percent of the distribution, mortality levels were estimated based on an interpolated mortality surface. Catchment-level results combining the photo-inventoried and interpolated mortality indicated that 44 percent of the GYE whitebark pine distribution showed severe old attack mortality (5.3–5.4 rating), 37 percent showed moderate old attack mortality (5.2–5.29 rating), 19 percent showed low old attack mortality (5.1–5.19 rating) and less than 1 percent showed trace levels of old attack mortality (5.0–5.09). No catchments were classified as recent attacks indicating that the outbreak of the early 2000’s has ended. However, mortality continues to occur as chronic sub-outbreak-level mortality. Ground verification using field plots indicates that higher LAS mortality values are moderately correlated with a higher percentage of mortality on the ground.

Snag-fall patterns following stand-replacing fire vary with stem characteristics and topography in subalpine forests of Greater Yellowstone

Standing dead tree stems (snags) become abundant following disturbances like bark beetle outbreaks and stand-replacing fire. Snags are an important element of wildlife habitat, and when they eventually fall can injure or damage people and infrastructure and contribute to coarse wood and fuels accumulation. While species-specific and general trends in snag persistence following disturbance have been well-studied, less attention has been paid to how these patterns vary across broad topographical gradients. We studied the ca. 250,000 ha of fire-killed snags created by the extensive and severe 1988 Yellowstone fires in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (Wyoming, USA) and asked: (1) What characteristics of individual tree stems contribute to the likelihood and mode of snag-fall? (2) How do snag-fall patterns vary across broad topographical gradients? In 2002 and 2003 (14–15 years postfire) we determined the abundance of standing snags vs. fallen stems to identify patterns of snag persistence in relation to stem characteristics and topography. In 2022 (34 years postfire), we sampled a separate set of plots to determine which, if any, trends identified 14–15 years postfire persisted for another two decades. Trends in snag persistence were species specific, with lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) stems less likely to remain standing than either Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii), Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca), subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa), or whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis). Across all species, larger snags and those dead at the time of fire remained standing longer than smaller snags and those alive at the time of fire. The mode of snag-fall (uprooted vs. snapped) also varied with stem characteristics and species identity. Greater proportions of snags (all species and sizes combined) remained standing at higher elevations and on steeper slopes, likely driven by soils, stem allometry, decay rates, wind patterns, and pre-fire stand composition. As the extent and frequency of large, severe fires increases in western subalpine forests, understanding snag dynamics and the ecology and management of both standing and fallen snags is increasingly important.

Assessing the Use of Burn Ratios and Red-Edge Spectral Indices for Detecting Fire Effects in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Burn severity is commonly assessed using Burn Ratios and field measurements to provide land managers with estimates of the degree of burning in an area. However, less commonly studied is the ability of spectral indices and Burn Ratios to estimate field-measured fire effects. Past research has shown low correlations between fire effects and Landsat-derived Burn Ratios, but with the launch of the Sentinel-2 constellation, more spectral bands with finer spatial resolutions have become available. This paper explores the use of several red-edge-based indices and Burn Ratios alongside more ‘traditional’ spectral indices for predicting fire effects, measured from the Maple and Berry fires in Wyoming, USA. The fire effects include ash depth, char depth, post-fire dead lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta; PICO) density/stumps, mean basal diameter, cone density on dead post-fire trees, coarse wood percent cover/volume/mass, percent cover of ghost logs and initial regeneration of post-fire PICO/aspen density. All-possible-models regression was used to determine the best models for estimating each fire effect. Models with satisfactory R2 values were constructed for post-fire dead PICO stumps (0.663), coarse wood percent cover (0.691), coarse wood volume (0.833), coarse wood mass (0.838), ash depth (0.636) and percent cover of ghost logs (0.717). Red-edge-based indices were included in all of the satisfactory models, which shows that the red-edge bands may be useful for measuring fire effects.

Divergent or convergent: how do forest carnivores use time in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem?

Abstract Divergent activity can change the intensity of species interactions, largely affecting species distributions and abundances, and consequently influencing the composition and function of ecological communities. Few assessments of activity patterns have focused questions around different resource constraints or have examined varying time frames when interaction strengths are expected to increase. We evaluated how activity among carnivores and their prey shifted from early to late winter, coinciding with a presumed decrease in food resources for carnivores, and we measured time between species detections within a camera station. Our study species were three forest carnivores—Pacific martens (Martes caurina), Rocky Mountain red foxes (Vulpes vulpes macroura), coyotes (Canis latrans); and two of their prey—American red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus), and snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus). We sampled these species across an extensive network of cameras (n = 107) during the 2014–2017 winter seasons in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, Wyoming. We generated kernel density plots for timing of photographs and calculated the coefficient of overlap among density plots for our predators and prey during early and late winter. Furthermore, we calculated the time-between-detections (i.e., hours) among forest carnivores. We found no consistent trends in time-between-detections across our species pairs. Pacific martens exhibited cathemeral activity that aligned with the peaks in activity of the two prey species. Temporal overlap between coyote and red fox activities was small in early winter, whereas coyotes modified activity in late winter such that they more closely aligned with red foxes. This intraguild convergence of activity may reflect an increase in resource constraints and have consequences for competitive interactions between these two canids. Our study supports the notion that variation in time is an important axis in facilitating coexistence among these forest carnivores and prey species.

Wherever I may roam-Human activity alters movements of red deer (Cervus elaphus) and elk (Cervus canadensis) across two continents.

Human activity and associated landscape modifications alter the movements of animals with consequences for populations and ecosystems worldwide. Species performing long-distance movements are thought to be particularly sensitive to human impact. Despite the increasing anthropogenic pressure, it remains challenging to understand and predict animals' responses to human activity. Here we address this knowledge gap using 1206 Global Positioning System movement trajectories of 815 individuals from 14 red deer (Cervus elaphus) and 14 elk (Cervus canadensis) populations spanning wide environmental gradients, namely the latitudinal range from the Alps to Scandinavia in Europe, and the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem in North America. We measured individual-level movements relative to the environmental context, or movement expression, using the standardized metric Intensity of Use, reflecting both the directionality and extent of movements. We expected movement expression to be affected by resource (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI) predictability and topography, but those factors to be superseded by human impact. Red deer and elk movement expression varied along a continuum, from highly segmented trajectories over relatively small areas (high intensity of use), to directed transitions through restricted corridors (low intensity of use). Human activity (Human Footprint Index, HFI) was the strongest driver of movement expression, with a steep increase in Intensity of Use as HFI increased, but only until a threshold was reached. After exceeding this level of impact, the Intensity of Use remained unchanged. These results indicate the overall sensitivity of Cervus movement expression to human activity and suggest a limitation of plastic responses under high human pressure, despite the species also occurring in human-dominated landscapes. Our work represents the first comparison of metric-based movement expression across widely distributed populations of a deer genus, contributing to the understanding and prediction of animals' responses to human activity.

Assessing the ecosystem services and disservices provided by migratory wildlife across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Highly mobile and migratory wildlife are ecologically, culturally, and economically important because they provide ecosystem services across heterogenous landscapes. Migratory ungulates (hoofed mammals) are particularly influential because of their large body size, seasonal movement across vast distances, and ties to human society. Ungulate migrations are widely declining in the face of habitat alteration, and initiatives across the globe seek to conserve them. However, migratory herds can generate significant costs or disservices for landowners and communities, complicating management and conservation. We demonstrate how a comprehensive assessment of the ecosystem services and disservices (ESDs) provided by mobile wildlife can enable conservation policy that facilitates co-existence across multi-use landscapes. Our mixed-methods approach applies the widely recognized Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) ESD categories as a framework to combine formal scientific knowledge spanning multiple disciplines with experiential knowledge gathered from local stakeholders through interviews. We apply this methodology in the context of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), which harbors long-distance migrations of six ungulate species that move between public protected areas and private working lands. We discuss how stakeholder knowledge corroborates or contradicts scientific literature and characterize stakeholder groups and their perspectives. We suggest that formal assessments of ESDs within their ecological and socioeconomic contexts could mobilize resources for conservation, increase returns on conservation spending, and support conflict resolution amongst groups seeking to manage wildlife for different objectives.

Diverse migratory portfolios drive inter‐annual switching behavior of elk across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

AbstractA growing body of evidence shows that some ungulates alternate between migratory and nonmigratory behaviors over time. Yet it remains unclear whether such short‐term behavioral changes can help explain reported declines in ungulate migration worldwide, as opposed to long‐term demographic changes. Furthermore, advances in tracking technology reveal that a simple distinction between migration and nonmigration may not sufficiently describe all individual behaviors. To better understand the dynamics and drivers of ungulate switching behavior, we investigated 14 years of movement data from 361 elk in 20 herds across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). First, we categorized yearly individual behaviors using a clustering algorithm that identified similar migratory tactics across a continuum of behaviors. Then, we tested seven hypotheses to explain why some ungulates switch behaviors, and we evaluated how behavioral changes affected the proportions of different behaviors across the system. We identified four distinct behavioral tactics: residents (4.8% of elk‐years), short‐distance migrants (53.7%), elevational migrants (21.9%) and long‐distance migrants (19.6%). Of the 20 herds, 18 were partially migratory, and 5 had all four movement tactics present. We observed switches between migratory tactics in all sets of consecutive years during our study period, with an average of 22.5% of individual elk changing movement tactics from one year to the next. Elk in herds with higher movement tactic diversity were significantly more likely to switch tactics and often responded more effectively to adverse environmental conditions, compared to those in herds with low movement tactic diversity. During our study period, switching increased the prevalence of both short‐ and long‐distance migrants, decreased the prevalence of elevational migrants, and had no effect on the prevalence of residents. Our findings suggest that rather than contributing to the declining migratory behavior found in the GYE, switching behavior may enable greater resiliency to continuously changing environmental and anthropogenic conditions.

Transboundary cultural resources: Sacred wildlife, Indigenous emotions, and conservation decision-making

For many Indigenous communities in North America, the grizzly bear is a symbol associated with tribal medicine, spirituality, history, and knowledge. Despite its cultural importance to Indigenous communities and also federal trust responsibilities, Indigenous Peoples are rarely consulted in conservation decision-making concerning grizzly bears, and the emotional outcomes of these decisions are poorly understood. In 2017 grizzly bears were removed from protection under the Endangered Species Act in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Drawing from emotional political ecology and emotional geography, we use the concepts of cultural resources and 'networked space' to investigates how conservation decisions about transboundary cultural resources affect the emotions of Indigenous Peoples inside and outside of policy-targeted areas such as Yellowstone. The bears are non-subsistence resources that also carry cultural meanings for people who live beyond their current range. We find that conservation decisions affecting transboundary cultural resources transcend time and space and can have strong emotional consequences for our research participants who live outside of the policy-targeted area. In connection with the psychological dimension of emotional political ecologies, we also find that our participant's emotional responses to the delisting were animated by the historical traumas imposed by living in a colonial state.

Multi‐level thresholds of residential and agricultural land use for elk avoidance across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Abstract Conversion of land for settlements and agriculture is increasing globally and can influence wildlife space use. However, there is limited research to identify the thresholds of land‐use change that incur wildlife avoidance and how these thresholds might vary across levels of selection. We evaluated multi‐level avoidance thresholds of elk Cervus canadensis impacted by residential development and irrigated agriculture across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem in Idaho, Montana and Wyoming. Using GPS data from 765 elk in 21 herds, we estimated habitat selection in relation to development and agriculture at three levels (home range selection, within home range selection and movement path selection). Next, using individual selection covariates and associated measures of land‐use availability, we used functional‐response models to evaluate how selection varied based on availability, and in turn, to estimate avoidance thresholds. We found individual and level‐specific variation in elk responses to environmental factors. Elk exhibited stronger responses (either selection or avoidance) when selecting home range locations (i.e. second‐order selection) than when selecting areas within home ranges (i.e. third‐order selection) or selecting movement paths (i.e. fourth‐order selection). Importantly, elk avoidance of development and agriculture changed as the amount of land in these categories changed. Across all levels of selection elk exhibited neutral selection for human development at low levels of availability (&lt;1.1%–2.2% developed) but avoided areas that were &gt;1.1%–2.2% developed. Conversely, elk selected positively for irrigated agriculture at low to moderate levels of availability (&lt;52.0%–66.2% agriculture) but exhibited neutral selection in areas that were &gt;52.0%–66.2% agriculture. Synthesis and applications. Elk avoidance of low levels of human development suggests conservation efforts such as restrictions on future development or conservation easements could focus on areas that are still below 2% developed. Additionally, because elk selection was strongest at the landscape scale, conservation actions that are based on information about the overall landscape structure may be most impactful. Our results highlight the importance of understanding variability in wildlife habitat selection at multiple levels, particularly in relation to land‐use change, and highlight how functional response modelling can help inform landscape conservation.

The Impact of Message Framing on Wildlife Approach During Ungulate Viewing Experiences in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Every year, millions of people visit parks and protected areas to view wildlife. Conflict between people and ungulates is prominent, and many incidents occur when people approach ungulates at proximities less than the National Park Service regulation of 25 yards. The purpose of this study was to test how wildlife viewing communication messages impact park visitors’ approach behavior. A survey and walking exercise were conducted with life-sized ungulate cutouts on a 100-yard transect in Grand Teton and Yellowstone National Parks to test the influence of three message frames (i.e., current NPS messaging, resource protection messaging, and a visitor experience message) on visitors’ approach behaviors. Park visitors overestimated proximity when given current park messaging. Additionally, the resource protection- and the visitor experience-framed messages led to more conservative wildlife approach compared to current park messaging. These results have practical applications for influencing visitors’ behaviors and reducing human-wildlife conflict through education and interpretation.

Using Stable Isotopes to Determine Natal Origin and Feeding Habits of the Army Cutworm Moth, Euxoa auxiliaris (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae).

The army cutworm, Euxoa auxiliaris (Grote), is a migratory noctuid that is both an agricultural pest and an important late-season food source for grizzly bears, Ursus arctos horribilis (Linnaeus, Carnivora: Ursidae), within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Beyond the confirmation of the moths' seasonal, elevational migration in the mid-1900s, little else has been documented about their migratory patterns. To address this missing ecological component, we examined (1) migratory routes during their spring and fall migratory periods throughout their natal range, the Great Plains, and (2) natal origin at two of their summering ranges using stable hydrogen (δ2H) analyses of wings from samples collected within the areas of interest. Stable carbon (δ13C) and stable nitrogen (δ15N) analyses of wings were used to evaluate larval feeding habits of the migrants and agricultural intensity of natal origin sites, respectively. Results suggest that, rather than migrating exclusively east to west, army cutworm moths are also migrating north to south during their spring migration. Moths did not exhibit natal origin site fidelity when returning to the Great Plains. Migrants collected from the Absaroka Range had the highest probability of natal origin in Alberta, British Columbia, Saskatchewan, the most southern region of the Northwest Territories, and second highest probability of origin in Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho. Migrants collected in the Lewis Range had the highest probability of origin in the same provinces of Canada. Results suggest that migrants of the Absaroka Range fed exclusively on C3 plants as larvae and rarely fed in heavily fertilized agroecosystems.

Enhancements to population monitoring of Yellowstone grizzly bears

In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, counts of female grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) with cubs-of-the-year (females with cubs) from systematic aerial surveys and opportunistic ground sightings are combined with demographic data to derive annual population estimates. We addressed 2 limitations to the monitoring approach. As part of a rule set, a conservative distance of >30 km currently is used as a threshold to assign sightings to unique females with cubs, resulting in underestimation bias. Using telemetry locations of females with cubs collected during 1997–2019, we created 1,000 data sets for each of 5 levels of simulated number of females with cubs, simulated sightings by selecting among these locations, and evaluated the classification performance of alternative distance criteria (12–30 km). Under all scenarios, 12–16-km criteria maximized classification performance and minimized estimation bias; the 16-km criterion was optimal for current conditions and sampling efforts. Our second objective was to test generalized additive models (GAMs) as a flexible trend analysis technique. We simulated 1,000 time series for each of 10 scenarios (10, 15, and 20% decline over periods of 5, 10, and 15 yrs, plus stability), applied GAMs, and assessed metrics associated with the posterior distribution of the instantaneous rate of change. We detected declines among >99.6% of replicates under the 15 and 20% decline scenarios and in 84.7–94.7% of replicates under the 10% decline scenario. From decline onset to first detection, periods ranged from 3.7 (20% decline over 5 yrs) to 11.1 (10% decline over 15 yrs), with 3.9–8.8 years mean duration of detection events. The GAM approach allows detection of directional changes in population trend, including early warning metrics, and stabilization after such changes. Retrospective application of the 16-km distance criterion and GAMs resulted in higher population estimates and growth rates than are reported using current methods.

Wildlife migrations highlight importance of both private lands and protected areas in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Formally protected areas are an important component of wildlife conservation, but face limitations in their effectiveness for migratory species. Improved stewardship of working lands around protected areas is one solution for conservation planning, but private working lands are vulnerable to development. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), ungulates such as elk (Cervus canadensis) use both protected areas and private lands throughout their annual migrations. We studied patterns of landownership, protection, and conservation challenges within the ranges of migratory elk in the GYE. We used GPS data from 1088 elk in 26 herds to define herd-level seasonal ranges, and extracted covariates related to landownership and protection, land use, and human infrastructure and development. All elk herds used land encompassing >1 ownership type. Most elk herds (92.3 % of herds, n = 24) used the highest proportion of private land in the winter (mean = 36.2 % private land). Most elk herds' winter ranges contained the highest building densities (mean = 1.24 buildings/km2), fence densities (mean = 1.02 km fence/km2), and cattle grazing (mean = 1.9 cows/km2), compared to migratory and summer ranges. Out of all ranges, 36.5 % of ranges did not have any zoning regulations, indicating the potential for future development. Our results show that elk in the GYE rely on habitat outside of protected areas, and face landscape-scale conservation challenges such as habitat fragmentation from human development, particularly in winter ranges. Future conservation strategies for wildlife in this system need to encompass coordination across both public and private land to ensure migratory connectivity.

Analyzing Resilience in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem after the 1988 Wildfire in the Western U.S. Using Remote Sensing and Soil Database

The 1988 Yellowstone fire altered the structure of the local forest ecosystem and left large non-recovery areas. This study assessed the pre-fire drivers and post-fire characteristics of the recovery and non-recovery areas and examined possible reasons driving non-recovery of the areas post-fire disturbance. Non-recovery and recovery areas were sampled with 44,629 points and 77,501 points, from which attribute values related to topography, climate, and subsequent soil conditions were extracted. We calculated the 1988 Yellowstone fire burn thresholds using the differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) and official fire maps. We used a burn severity map from the US Forest Service to calculate the burn severity values. Spatial regressions and Chi-Square tests were applied to determine the statistically significant characteristics of a lack of recovery. The non-recovery areas were found to cover 1005.25 km2. Among 11 variables considered as potential factors driving recovery areas and 13 variables driving non-recovery areas, elevation and maximum temperature were found to have high Variance Inflation Factors (4.73 and 4.72). The results showed that non-recovery areas all experienced severe burns and were located at areas with steeper slopes (13.99°), more precipitation (871.73 mm), higher pre-fire vegetation density (NDVI = 0.38), higher bulk density (750.03 kg/m3), lower soil organic matter (165.61 g/kg), and lower total nitrogen (60.97 mg/L). Chi-square analyses revealed statistically different pre-fire forest species (p &lt; 0.01) and soil order (p &lt; 0.01) in the recovery and non-recovery areas. Although Inceptisols dominated in both recovery and non-recovery areas, however, the composition of Mollisols was higher in the non-recovery areas (14%) compared to the recovery areas (11%). This indicated the ecological memory of the non-recovery site reverting to grassland post-disturbance. Unlike conventional studies only focusing on recovery areas, this study analyzed the non-recovery areas and found the key characteristics that make a landscape not resilient to the 1988 Yellowstone fire. The significant effects of elevation, precipitation, and soil pH on recovery may be significant to the forest management and forest resilience in the post-fire period.

Modelling the role of predation on disease burdens of prey.

Research Highlight: Brandell, E. E., Cross, P. C., Smith, D. W., Rogers, W., Galloway, N. L., MacNulty, D. R., Stahler, D. R., Treanor, J. & Hudson, P. J. (2022). Examination of the interaction between age-specific predation and chronic disease in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Journal of Animal Ecology, 00, 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13661. Predation can alter disease dynamics in prey. If predators select for infected individuals, they can reduce disease burdens. In other cases, predators can increase disease burdens via various mechanisms such as altered prey behaviour. The influence of predation on disease dynamics is a result of interactions among various traits of the predators, prey and the pathogen itself. For example, pathogens tend to vary with age and predators typically select for certain age classes. Thus, the overlap between ages selected by predators and those infected will likely contribute to any effects of predation on reducing disease burdens. In this paper, Brandell et al. (2022) develop a model to evaluate the predator cleansing effect given age-based variation in pathogens and predation. The model was developed for Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) infections in deer and elk facing predation by cougars and grey wolves in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. The results indicate that predators can reduce CWD outbreak size, especially if selecting for infected individuals. CWD is an always fatal disease and this work suggests that predators could reduce disease burdens in cervids. The model is also applicable to other systems and promises to further our understanding of the role of predation on disease in prey, as well as drive future empirical studies.