Greater Spreads Research Articles

Decision support system on credit operation using linear and logistic regression

AbstractThe act of lending is based on trust in the borrower to honour the obligation of paying back the lender. Greater spreads on credit operations may help predict the expected recovery of the credit, based on the sufficiency and liquidity of the guarantee. This study aims to understand how predictive models can provide different estimations of expected recovery based on the same data sets. It classifies credit by the formulation of a rule that describes the values of a categorical variable according to some specified definition. It finds that a simple logistic regression model can easily be extended to a multiple logistic regression model by integrating more than one prediction variable, which indicates increasing difficulty in obtaining multiple observations with an increasing number of independent variables. It compares the efficiency of the logistic regression with that of a linear regression in predicting whether recovery is due in a credit operation, and, thus, identifies the best model for this purpose.

A comparison of the rainfall forecasting skills of the WRF ensemble forecasting system using SPCPT and other cumulus parameterization error representation schemes

The scientific community mainly uses ensemble systems to represent various sources of uncertainties and to produce better forecasts. The inability to choose accurate initial conditions leads to failed forecasts due to the well-known butterfly effect; however, in modern weather models, researchers have paid more attention to inadequacies in the sense of physical parameterization schemes and other dynamic processes. In this study, the uncertainties caused by cumulus parameterization are represented by the stochastic perturbed parameterization tendency (SPPT) scheme, and the results are compared with those of classic schemes, including the multi cumulus parameterization scheme, the parameter-perturbed scheme, and the Gaussian-noise-perturbed tendency scheme. The impacts of these various schemes on the precipitation predictions of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are compared for Southeast Asia. The results using the stochastic perturbed cumulus parameterization tendency (SPCPT) perturbation scheme are contrasted with those of the total parameterization tendency perturbation scheme. Compared to the other schemes, the multi cumulus parameterization scheme has better Brier skill scores (BSS) and greater spreads. However, the SPCPT scheme shows significant improvements in the root mean square error (RMSE) and the Gerrity skill score (GSS) for rainfall prediction. This result also implies that the noise pattern is critical to the ensemble system; thus, using a single error representation scheme may be insufficient to estimate the error in the cumulus parameterization process.

Does the Arrival of Investment Opportunities Promote or Deter Firm Disclosures? Evidence from Medicare National Coverage Decisions

Although the arrival of investment opportunities increases the demand for information, it is also likely to exacerbate disclosure costs. This study examines the relationship between the arrival of investment opportunities and firm disclosures in the context of Medicare national coverage decisions (NCD), which create staggered changes to the investment opportunities available to different subsets of firms in the medical device industry. Consistent with disclosure costs being the dominant effect, we find that NCD approvals are associated with reductions in management forecasts, disclosures about R&D, and product-related announcements. Additional cross-sectional analyses suggest that greater reputation and proprietary cost concerns are important determinants of this negative association. We find that information intermediaries increase their coverage of firms following NCD approvals. Yet, overall, the greater investment opportunities due to NCD approvals appear to have a negative effect on firms’ information environment: NCD approvals are followed by higher analyst forecast dispersion, greater bid-ask spreads, and decreased stock liquidity.

Determining Mechanisms of Visual Loss in Glaucoma Using Rarebit Perimetry

Evidence for ganglion cell visual dysfunction in human glaucoma is often indirect, being either measured at the cellular level in animal models or being inferred from the pooled responses of a large number of ganglion cells in human observers. Rarebit perimetry (RBP) uses repeated, intense (150 cd/m2) stimuli-whose size is close to the spatial scale of a ganglion cell-to search for small retinal areas with zero sensitivity. Decreasing the stimulus luminance to 64 cd/m2 in normal observers does not alter the percentage of RBP stimuli detected [the mean hit rate (MHR)], and so we hypothesized that a similar response robustness should occur in glaucoma if the elements detecting the RBP target show no signs of visual dysfunction. Nineteen glaucoma subjects and 19 age-matched controls were tested with a customized RBP test at 13 stimulus luminances (10 to 150 cd/m2, 0.14 log unit intervals). A four-parameter (threshold, spread, false positive proportion, and miss rate) cumulative Gaussian psychometric function was fitted to the response rate data from a glaucoma-affected region (glaucoma subjects; MHR >50% and <80%) and from the corresponding region in an age-matched normal control. Our hypothesis would predict that only the miss rates should differ between groups. Glaucoma subjects showed significantly higher miss rates (0.18 vs. 0.04, p < 0.001), lower false positive proportions (0.009 vs. 0.025, p = 0.004), greater spreads (0.30 vs. 0.19, p = 0.002), and elevated thresholds [1.57 log(cd/m2) vs. 1.13 log(cd/m2), p < 0.001]. Responses to RBP stimuli are not robust to decreasing luminances in glaucoma. Our results more directly imply the presence of ganglion cell visual dysfunction in human glaucoma than studies using larger targets where contrast sensitivity losses could result through ganglion cell death alone. Such dysfunction may not be detected by Rarebit's MHR given that dysfunctional elements may still respond to the very intense RBP stimulus.

Consumer Acceptance of Ozone‐Treated Whole Shell Eggs

Ozone-based processing is a novel technology with potentially fewer adverse effects than in-shell thermal pasteurization of eggs. There are no consumer acceptance studies published on ozone-treated eggs. This study examines consumers' ability to detect changes between ozone-treated, thermal-treated, and fresh untreated eggs. Consumers (n = 111) evaluated visual attributes of uncooked eggs and a separate group of consumers (n = 132) evaluated acceptability of cooked eggs. Consumers evaluated attribute intensity of the eggs. The yolks and albumens of the thermal-treated and ozone-treated eggs were perceived to be significantly cloudier than the untreated control, while the ozone-treated eggs were more similar to control (P < 0.05). The yolks of ozone-treated eggs were perceived to have significantly lower heights and greater spreads than the others (P < 0.05). Despite these perceptions, overall visual appeal of ozone-treated eggs was not significantly different from control eggs. A separate set of consumers used hedonic scales to evaluate overall liking, appearance, aroma, flavor, and texture of cooked eggs. Just-about-right (JAR) scales were used to rate the color, moistness, and texture. There were no differences on any attribute scores between the treatments, except thermal-treated and ozone-treated were perceived as less moist than the control. There were no adverse effects on consumer acceptance of eggs, treated with ozone, with acceptance the same as an untreated control. These findings are useful as ozone pasteurization can enhance the safety of fresh shell eggs to meet the goals of the U.S. Egg Safety Action Plan. The U.S. Egg Safety Action Plan requires all shell eggs to be pasteurized to prevent foodborne illness. Heat pasteurization partially cooks the egg, so an alternative process uses ozone with less heat. This study shows the ozone pasteurization has no detectable sensory defects.

The evolution of a national banking market in pre-war Japan

This paper assesses banking market integration in Japan during the period 1889–1938 using annual data on loan rates and spreads between loan and deposit rates. Banks in prefectures further from the financial centers exhibited higher loan rates and greater spreads than banks closer to the center, however, distance effects diminished over time, suggesting that banking markets became increasingly integrated due to declines in transaction costs. Additionally, loan rates and spreads varied negatively with the intensity of local bank competition, consistent with the notion of market segmentation. We speculate that Japan’s anti-competitive banking regulation might have slowed the process of banking market integration.

A comparison of seedling emergence and early seedling growth from dry-sown natural and fluid-drilled pregerminated onion (Allium cepaL.) seeds in the field

SummaryThe emergence of seedlings from natural ungerminated, fluid-drilled germinating and uniformly germinated seeds was studied in a range of changing environments in both irrigated and unirrigated crops. In general, seedlings from uniformly germinated seeds emerged before those from germinating seeds, and seedlings from both emerged before those from ungerminated seeds. This earlier emergence from germinated seeds led to larger seedlings at subsequent harvests. The timing of emergence was correlated with mean temperature in all seed treatments on irrigated plots, but only in the uniformly germinated seed treatment on unirrigated plots. Fluid-drilled germinating seeds produced consistently greater spreads of seedling emergence times than either the uniformly germinated or the ungerminated treatments over the whole range of environmental conditions. More seedlings emerged from uniformly germinated seeds than from ungerminated seeds particularly under more favourable conditions, whereas germinating seeds ...