Greater Risk Of Extinction Research Articles

Evaluation of management options for climate-change adaptation of threatened species: a case study of a restricted orchid

Context Global climate is changing rapidly, necessitating timely development of specific, actionable species conservation strategies that incorporate climate-change adaptation. Yet, detailed climate-change adaptation planning is noticeably absent from species management plans. This is problematic for restricted species, which often have greater extinction risk. Aims Focusing on the restricted and endangered Tarengo leek orchid (Prasophyllum petilum), we aimed to adapt and test a framework for producing strategies for its management under climate change. Methods We used expert elicitation to estimate the severity of threats and assess potential management actions to mitigate threat impacts. We created a conceptual model detailing ecology, threats and likely impacts of climate change on the species, including the interactions between components. Key results Although climate change-related threats will affect the species, the most severe threats were non-climate threats including grazing, weeds, and habitat degradation. Fire management was deemed highly beneficial but had low feasibility for some populations. Without management, experts estimated up to a 100% decrease in one P. petilum population, and up to 50% decrease if management remained unchanged. Conclusions Management actions with the highest benefit and feasibility addressed the non-climate threats, which, in turn, can give the species the best opportunity to withstand climate-change impacts. Experts highlighted the difficulty of addressing climate threats with such limited knowledge; therefore, further research was recommended. Implications This adapted framework enabled a structured analysis of threats, and informed selection of priority adaptation options. We recommend its use for other restricted species for efficient and robust decision-making in climate-change management.

Landscape genetics of spruce grouse at the trailing edge of the boreal forest

Populations on the periphery of a species range generally occupy marginal or less continuous habitat and can have greater extinction risk than populations in the range‐center. For climate‐sensitive populations on the trailing edge of a species' distribution (i.e. low latitude or low elevation), the effects of climate change are expected to compound these threats, increasing the vulnerability of these populations. The spruce grouse Canachites canadensis is a boreal forest specialist that is expected to experience range contraction at the trailing edge of its range due to climate change. In this study, we investigated the genetic structure, genetic diversity, and connectivity of spruce grouse in Minnesota, along the southeastern range limit in the United States. Clustering algorithms and genetic diversity indices suggested a single continuous population occurred throughout northern Minnesota. We detected no signatures of recent inbreeding or population bottlenecks. We used maximum likelihood population effects modeling and identified coniferous forest land cover and lower average spring temperatures as predictors of gene flow. We used two approaches based on circuit theory to map the potential for gene flow and identified regions of consistently high gene flow in the northwest and northeast of the study area. Omniscape, which incorporated additional parameters representing the likely origins of dispersers and the maximum dispersal distance, suggested a more continuous gene flow landscape than did Circuitscape. Our work highlights the current genetic integrity of one of the largest populations of the eastern subspecies of spruce grouse C. c. canadensis in the United States, identifies key landscape attributes for functional connectivity, and demonstrates complementary approaches of Circuitscape and Omniscape for gene flow mapping.

Common ant species dominate morphospace: unraveling the morphological diversity in the Brazilian Amazon Basin

Rare plant and vertebrate species have been documented to contribute disproportionately to the total morphological structure of species assemblages. These species often possess morphologically extreme traits and occupy the boundaries of morphological space. As rare species are at greater risk of extinction than more widely distributed species, human‐induced disturbances can strongly affect ecosystem functions related to assemblage morphology. Here, we assess to what extent the distributions of ant morphological traits are supported by morphologically extreme species and how they are distributed among habitats in a global biodiversity hotspot, the Brazilian Amazon. We used a morphological database comprising 15 continuous morphological traits and 977 expert‐validated ant species distributed across the Brazilian Amazon. We produced species range estimates using species distribution models or alpha hulls (when few records were available). Next, we conducted a principal components analysis to combine traits into a space with reduced dimensionality (morphospace). Then, we identified morphologically extreme species in this space and quantified their contributions to morphological diversity across different habitat types in the Brazilian Amazon Basin. We identified 114 morphologically extreme ant species across the Amazon ant morphospace. These species also accounted for a large percentage of morphospace filling, exceeding 99% representation in the most disturbed habitats in the Amazon. Our results suggest that a few morphologically extreme species capture most of the variation in ant morphology and, therefore, the spectrum of ecosystem functions performed by ants in the Brazilian Amazon Basin. Further, unlike in many other groups, these extreme morphologies were represented by the set of most common species. These results suggest greater functional redundancy and resilience in Brazilian Amazon ants, but more broadly, they contribute to our understanding of ecological processes that sustain ecosystem functions.

The reorganization of predator-prey networks over 20 million years explains extinction patterns of mammalian carnivores.

Linking the species interactions occurring at the scale of local communities to their potential impact at evolutionary timescales is challenging. Here, we used the high-resolution fossil record of mammals from the Iberian Peninsula to reconstruct a timeseries of trophic networks spanning more than 20 million years and asked whether predator-prey interactions affected regional extinction patterns. We found that, despite small changes in species richness, trophic networks showed long-term trends, gradually losing interactions and becoming sparser towards the present. This restructuring of the ecological networks was driven by the loss of medium-sized herbivores, which reduced prey availability for predators. The decrease in prey availability was associated with predator longevity, such that predators with less available prey had greater extinction risk. These results not only reveal long-term trends in network structure but suggest that prey species richness in ecological communities may shape large scale patterns of extinction and persistence among predators.

It is hot and cold here: the role of thermotolerance in the ability of spiders to colonize tree plantations in the southern Atlantic Forest.

Worldwide, with the decline of natural habitats, species with reduced niche breadth (specialists) are at greater risk of extinction as they cannot colonise or persist in disturbed habitat types. However, the role of thermal tolerance as a critical trait in understanding changes in species diversity in disturbed habitats, e.g., due to forest replacement by tree plantations, is still understudied. To examine the role of thermal tolerance on the responses of specialist and generalist species to habitat disturbances, we measured and compared local temperature throughout the year and thermotolerance traits [upper (CTmax) and lower (CTmin) thermal limits] of the most abundant species of spiders from different guilds inhabiting pine tree plantations and native Atlantic Forests in South America. Following the thermal adaptation hypothesis, we predicted that generalist species would show a wider thermal tolerance range (i.e., lower CTmin and higher CTmax) than forest specialist species. As expected, generalist species showed significantly higher CTmax and lower CTmin values than specialist species with wider thermal tolerance ranges than forest specialist species. These differences are more marked in orb weavers than in aerial hunter spiders. Our study supports the specialisation disturbance and thermal hypotheses. It highlights that habitat-specialist species are more vulnerable to environmental changes associated with vegetation structure and microclimatic conditions. Moreover, thermal tolerance is a key response trait to explain the Atlantic Forest spider's ability (or inability) to colonise and persist in human-productive land uses.

Pace and parity predict the short-term persistence of small plant populations.

Life history traits are used to predict asymptotic odds of extinction from dynamic conditions. Less is known about how life history traits interact with stochasticity and population structure of finite populations to predict near-term odds of extinction. Through empirically parameterized matrix population models, we study the impact of life history (reproduction, pace), stochasticity (environmental, demographic), and population history (existing, novel) on the transient population dynamics of finite populations of plant species. Among fast and slow pace and either a uniform or increasing reproductive intensity or short or long reproductive lifespan, slow, semelparous species are at the greatest risk of extinction. Long reproductive lifespans buffer existing populations from extinction while the odds of extinction of novel populations decrease when the reproductive effort is uniformly spread across the reproductive lifespan. Our study highlights the importance of population structure, pace, and two distinct aspects of parity for predicting near-term odds of extinction.

Using resiliency, redundancy, and representation in a Bayesian belief network to assess imperilment of riverine fishes

AbstractConservation prioritization frameworks are used worldwide to identify species at greatest risk of extinction and to allocate limited resources across regions, species, and populations. Conservation prioritization can be impeded by ecological knowledge gaps and data deficiency, especially in freshwater species inhabiting highly complex aquatic ecosystems. Therefore, we developed a flexible approach that calculates a species' imperilment risk based on the conservation principles of resiliency, redundancy, and representation (i.e., the “three R's”). Our approach organizes data on species traits, distributions, population connectivity, and threats within a Bayesian belief network capable of predicting resiliency and redundancy within representative ecological settings. Empirical data and expert judgment inform the model to provide robust and repeatable risk assessments for rare and data‐deficient species. The model calculates resiliency at hierarchical spatial scales from distributional trends and population strength. Redundancy is estimated from the connectivity and quantities of extant populations. Resiliency, redundancy, and species' inherent vulnerability based on species traits collectively estimate extirpation risk within each unique ecological setting. Extirpation risks across ecological settings characterize representation and are aggregated to estimate global imperilment risk. We demonstrate the model's utility with Piebald Madtom (Noturus gladiator), a species petitioned for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Our results revealed that resiliency, redundancy, and extirpation risks can vary spatially across the species' range while identifying populations where additional sampling could disproportionally reduce uncertainty in estimated global imperilment risk. Our approach could standardize and expedite conservation status assessments, identify opportunities for early management intervention of at‐risk species and populations, and strategically reduce uncertainty by focusing monitoring and research on priority information gaps.

Effects of drought, invasive species, and habitat loss on future extinction risk of two species of imperiled freshwater turtle

While predicting species status into the future is inherently uncertain, it is necessary to properly inform conservation decision-making. Using a triple loop stochastic simulation model with a population viability analysis, we projected populations of the northwestern and southwestern pond turtle (Actinemys marmorata and Actinemys pallida, respectively) to the end of the century. We integrated the future trajectories and demographic or population-level effects of three primary threats (drought, invasive bullfrogs, and habitat loss) into the predictive model. Extinction risk of both species increased into the future, with projected widespread declines in abundance and a consistent, negative population growth. By the end of the century, mean probability of extinction was 50 % for the northwestern pond turtle and 75 % for the southwestern pond turtle. The northwestern pond turtle exhibited a latitudinal trend, with southern population units at greater risk of extinction. The population growth rate of the northwestern pond turtle was sensitive to the threat of invasive bullfrogs, whereas drought most strongly influenced southwestern pond turtle growth rates. Future drought conditions will likely be more stochastic than modeled here, where projection methods were limited by the scale and congruency of drought information in pond turtle studies. The habitat loss threat was negligible for both species, although it is likely underestimated due to lack of relevant information on both its future trajectory and effect on vital rates. This work served as decision support science for the Species Status Assessment of the two species, and ultimately, the listing decision under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.

Extinction risk of the world's freshwater mammals.

The continued loss of freshwater habitats poses a significant threat to global biodiversity. We reviewed the extinction risk of 166 freshwater aquatic and semiaquatic mammals-a group rarely documented as a collective. We used the International Union for the Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species categories as of December 2021 to determine extinction risk. Extinction risk was then compared among taxonomic groups, geographic areas, and biological traits. Thirty percent of all freshwater mammals were listed as threatened. Decreasing population trends were common (44.0%), including a greater rate of decline (3.6% in 20years) than for mammals or freshwater species as a whole. Aquatic freshwater mammals were at a greater risk of extinction than semiaquatic freshwater mammals (95% CI -7.20 to -1.11). Twenty-nine species were data deficient or not evaluated. Large species (95% CI 0.01 to 0.03) with large dispersal distances (95% CI 0.03 to 0.15) had a higher risk of extinction than small species with small dispersal distances. The number of threatening processes associated with a species compounded their risk of extinction (95% CI 0.28 to 0.77). Hunting, land clearing for logging and agriculture, pollution, residential development, and habitat modification or destruction from dams and water management posed the greatest threats to these species. The basic life-history traits of many species were poorly known, highlighting the need for more research. Conservation of freshwater mammals requires a host of management actions centered around increased protection of riparian areas and more conscientious water management to aid the recovery of threatened species.

Predicting climate heating impacts on riverine fish species diversity in a biodiversity hotspot region

Co-occurring biodiversity and global heating crises are systemic threats to life on Earth as we know it, especially in relatively rare freshwater ecosystems, such as in Iran. Future changes in the spatial distribution and richness of 131 riverine fish species were investigated at 1481 sites in Iran under optimistic and pessimistic climate heating scenarios for the 2050s and 2080s. We used maximum entropy modeling to predict species’ potential distributions by hydrologic unit (HU) occupancy under current and future climate conditions through the use of nine environmental predictor variables. The most important variable determining fish occupancy was HU location, followed by elevation, climate variables, and slope. Thirty-seven species were predicted to decrease their potential habitat occupancy in all future scenarios. The southern Caspian HU faces the highest future species reductions followed by the western Zagros and northwestern Iran. These results can be used by managers to plan conservational strategies to ease the dispersal of species, especially those that are at the greatest risk of extinction or invasion and that are in rivers fragmented by dams.

Threatened fish species in the Northeast Atlantic are functionally rare

AbstractAimThe criteria used to define the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List categories are essentially based on demographic parameters at the species level, but they do not integrate species' traits or their roles in ecosystems. Consequently, current IUCN‐based protection measures may not be sufficient to conserve ecosystem functioning and services. Some species may have a singular combination of traits associated with unique functions. Such functionally distinct species are increasingly recognized as a key facet of biodiversity since they are, by definition, functionally irreplaceable. The aim of this study is to investigate whether threatened species are also functionally rare and to identify which traits determine extinction risk.LocationEuropean continental shelf seas.Time period1984–2020.Major taxa studiedMarine fish.MethodsUsing newly compiled trait information of 425 marine fish species in European waters, and more than 30 years of scientific bottom trawl surveys, we estimated the functional distinctiveness, restrictedness and scarcity of each species and cross‐referenced it with their IUCN conservation status.ResultsIn European continental shelf seas, 38% of the species threatened with extinction (9 out of 24 species) were identified as the most functionally distinct. By mapping extinction risk in the multidimensional species trait space, we showed that species with the greatest risk of extinction are long‐lived and of high trophic level. We also identified that the most functionally distinct species are sparsely distributed (4% of the total area on average) and have scarce abundances (<1% of the relative mean abundance of common species).Main ConclusionsBecause a substantial proportion of threatened species are functionally distinct and thus may play unique roles in ecosystem functioning, we stress that species traits—especially functional rarity—should become an indispensable step in the development of conservation management plans.

Extinction risk patterns in a biodiversity hotspot—The case of Thesium (Santalaceae) in the Greater Cape Floristic Region

AbstractEcologically specialized plants are expected to be at greater risk of extinction than generalists due to climate change. Such risk is greatest in biodiversity hotspots such as the Greater Cape Floristic Region (GCFR), which accommodates both ecological specialists and generalists. Thesium L., a genus with the highest number of species in Santalaceae and the most diverse in Africa, offers an appropriate system for evaluating both the correlates of range extent and specialization and the relative extinction risks associated with both. We hypothesized that range size, ecological specialization, and consequent climatically modulated extinction risks are all phylogenetically structured, such that climate change will precipitate a disproportionate loss of phylogenetic diversity in the GCFR Thesium. Past and future species distribution ranges were predicted using MaxEnt models based on present‐day occurrences and environmental conditions. Of the 101 Thesium species modeled, 70% have had large range sizes during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 50% currently have a large range size, and future conditions are predicted to allow 40% to obtain large range sizes. Between the LGM and the present, 17% of species are thought to have undergone a contraction of available range space in the present time whereas 37% are expected to expand their ranges into the future, while 51% of species will experience range contractions. Of the 65 species currently ranked as Least Concern in the South African Red List, 24% will likely shift into higher extinction risk categories. Interestingly, 8.5% of ecological specialists, although having experienced a range reduction from the LGM to the present, are predicted to persist in the face of future climate change. However, the range extent, ecological specialization, and extinction risk are phylogenetically random and therefore should have a negligible impact on the phylogenetic diversity of the GCFR Thesium.

Carapichea ipecacuanha (Brot.) Stokes (Rubiaceae): The three last Latin American groups at risk of extinction under pressure from deforestation and climate change

Global climate change is currently a serious threat to biodiversity. The understanding of the effects of climate changes on the flora is urgent. Here, we analyze the effects of future climate change on the spatial distribution of the three remaining groups of Carapichea ipecacuanha (Poaia) in the Americas. We built niche-based models for current and optimistic and pessimistic climate scenarios projected for 2050 and 2090. Our findings showed that climatically suitable areas for the Atlantic and Amazon Forest groups will be strongly reduced. The greatest risk of extinction was observed for the Amazon group due to the drastic spatial reduction and abrupt spatial displacement of climate suitability. The climate suitability for the Atlantic Forest group will be reduced, comprising a small suitable area in the transition zone between Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo. The climate suitability for the Panama group remained in an continuous region in Panama and Colombia. Our results encourage future studies that develop conservation management plans in order to ensure the continuation of ecological refugia for this species.

A global ecological signal of extinction risk in marine ray-finned fishes (class Actinopterygii)

Abstract Many marine fish species are experiencing population declines, but their extinction risk profiles are largely understudied in comparison to their terrestrial vertebrate counterparts. Selective extinction of marine fish species may result in rapid alteration of the structure and function of ocean ecosystems. In this study, we compiled an ecological trait dataset for 8,185 species of marine ray-finned fishes (class Actinopterygii) from FishBase and used phylogenetic generalized linear models to examine which ecological traits are associated with increased extinction risk, based on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature Red List. We also assessed which threat types may be driving these species toward greater extinction risk and whether threatened species face a greater average number of threat types than non-threatened species. We found that larger body size and/or fishes with life histories involving movement between marine, brackish, and freshwater environments are associated with elevated extinction risk. Commercial harvesting threatens the greatest number of species, followed by pollution, development, and then climate change. We also found that threatened species, on average, face a significantly greater number of threat types than non-threatened species. These results can be used by resource managers to help address the heightened extinction risk patterns we found.

How Might Climate Change Affect Adaptive Responses of Polar Arthropods?

Climate change is expected to impact the global distribution and diversity of arthropods, with warmer temperatures forcing species to relocate, acclimate, adapt, or go extinct. The Arctic and Antarctic regions are extremely sensitive to climate change and have displayed profound and variable changes over recent decades, including decreases in sea ice extent, greening of tundra, and changes to hydrological and biogeochemical cycles. It is unclear how polar-adapted arthropods will respond to such changes, though many are expected to be at great risk of extinction. Here, we review the adaptive mechanisms that allow polar arthropods to persist in extreme environments and discuss how the effects of climate change at the poles will likely favour non-native species or those with the ability to rapidly evolve and/or acclimate. We find that physiological, behavioural, plastic, and genetic data are limited in scope for polar arthropods and research on adaptive responses to change is scarce. This restricts our ability to predict how they may respond to a warming climate. We call for a greater investment in research that specifically targets the ecology and evolution of these taxa, including genomic and transcriptomic approaches that can evaluate the potential for plastic and evolved environmental responses.

Mite conservation: which species should we care about—and should we care at all?

The enormous diversity of mites, some of which depend upon a single host species, coupled with threatened species and environments, means that some must be endangered or even extinct. But how do we identify an endangered mite species, recognise which species are at greater risk of extinction, and determine how they can be incorporated in conservation efforts?

Comparison of genetic variation between rare and common congeners of Dipodomys with estimates of contemporary and historical effective population size.

Species with low effective population sizes are at greater risk of extinction because of reduced genetic diversity. Such species are more vulnerable to chance events that decrease population sizes (e.g. demographic stochasticity). Dipodomys elator, (Texas kangaroo rat) is a kangaroo rat that is classified as threatened in Texas and field surveys from the past 50 years indicate that the distribution of this species has decreased. This suggests geographic range reductions that could have caused population fluctuations, potentially impacting effective population size. Conversely, the more common and widespread D. ordii (Ord’s kangaroo rat) is thought to exhibit relative geographic and demographic stability. We assessed the genetic variation of D. elator and D. ordii samples using 3RAD, a modified restriction site associated sequencing approach. We hypothesized that D. elator would show lower levels of nucleotide diversity, observed heterozygosity, and effective population size when compared to D. ordii. We were also interested in identifying population structure within contemporary samples of D. elator and detecting genetic variation between temporal samples to understand demographic dynamics. We analyzed up to 61,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms. We found that genetic variability and effective population size in contemporary D. elator populations is lower than that of D. ordii. There is slight, if any, population structure within contemporary D. elator samples, and we found low genetic differentiation between spatial or temporal historical samples. This indicates little change in nuclear genetic diversity over 30 years. Results suggest that genetic diversity of D. elator has remained stable despite reduced population size and/or abundance, which may indicate a metapopulation-like system, whose fluctuations might counteract species extinction.

Body size and diet breadth drive local extinction risk in butterflies

Lepidoptera, butterflies and moths, are significant pollinators and ecosystem health indicators. Therefore, monitoring their diversity, distribution, and extinction risks are of critical importance. We aim to understand drivers of local extinction risks of the butterflies in Bangladesh. We conducted a systematic review to extract local extinction risks of the butterflies of Bangladesh, and possible drivers (e.g., body size and diet breadth) of their extinction. We tested whether body size, larval host plants and adult nectar plants contribute to the local extinction risks of butterflies. We predicted butterflies with larger body size and fewer host and nectar plants would be in greater extinction risk. We showed extinction risk is higher in larger butterflies than smaller butterflies, and in butterflies with fewer number of host and nectar plants than the butterflies with higher number host and nectar plants. Our study identifies body size and diet breadth as a potential driver of the local extinction of butterflies thereby suggesting larger conservation urgency for the larger butterflies with narrow diet breadth.

Experimental habitat fragmentation disrupts host-parasite interaction over decades via life-cycle bottlenecks.

Habitat loss and fragmentation are likely to seriously impact parasites, a less studied but critical component of ecosystems, yet we lack long-term experimental evidence. Parasites structure communities, increase connectivity in food webs, and account for a large proportion of an ecosystem's total biomass. Food web models predict that parasites with multiple obligate hosts are at greater risk of extinction because the local extinction, or reduction in abundance, of any host will result in a life-cycle bottleneck for the parasite. We examine the response of a parasite and its multiple hosts to forest fragmentation over 26 years in the Wog Wog Habitat Fragmentation Experiment in southeastern Australia. The parasite is the nematode Hedruris wogwogensis, its intermediate host is the amphipod, Arcitalitrus sylvaticus, and its definitive host is the skink, Lampropholis guichenoti. In the first decade after fragmentation, nematodes completely disappeared from the matrix (plantation forestry) and all but disappeared from their definitive host (skinks) in fragments, and by the third decade after fragmentation had not appreciably recovered anywhere in the fragmented landscape compared to continuous forest. The low prevalence of the nematode in the fragmented landscape was associated with the low abundance of one or the other host in different decades: low abundance of the intermediate host (amphipod) in the first decade and low abundance of the definitive host (skink) in the third decade. In turn, the low abundance of each host was associated with changes to the abiotic environment over time due largely to the dynamically changing matrix as the plantation trees grew. Our study provides rare long-term experimental evidence of how disturbance can cause local extinction in parasites with life cycles dependent on more than one host species through population bottlenecks at any life stage. Mismatches in the abundance of multiple hosts over time are likely to be common following disturbance, thus causing parasites with complex life cycles to be particularly susceptible to habitat fragmentation and other disturbances. The integrity of food webs, communities, and ecosystems in fragmented landscapes may be more compromised than presently appreciated due to the sensitivity of parasites to habitat fragmentation.

Surviving environmental change: when increasing population size can increase extinction risk.

Populations threatened by an abrupt environmental change-due to rapid climate change, pathogens or invasive competitors-may survive if they possess or generate genetic combinations adapted to the novel, challenging condition. If these genotypes are initially rare or non-existent, the emergence of lineages that allow a declining population to survive is known as 'evolutionary rescue'. By contrast, the genotypes required for survival could, by chance, be common before the environmental change. Here, considering both of these possibilities, we find that the risk of extinction can be lower in very small or very large populations, but peaks at intermediate population sizes. This pattern occurs when the survival genotype has a small deleterious effect before the environmental change. Since mildly deleterious mutations constitute a large fraction of empirically measured fitness effects, we suggest that this unexpected result-an intermediate size that puts a population at a greater risk of extinction-may not be unusual in the face of environmental change.