Greater Exchange Rate Flexibility Research Articles

Weather shocks and exchange rate flexibility

AbstractThis paper assesses the stabilization properties of fixed versus flexible exchange rate regimes and aims to answer this research question: Does greater exchange rate flexibility help an economy's adjustment to weather shocks? To address this question, the impact of weather shocks on real per capita GDP growth is quantified under the two alternative exchange rate regimes. We find that although weather shocks are generally detrimental to per capita income growth, the impact is less severe under flexible exchange rate regimes. Moreover, the medium‐term adverse growth impact of a 1°C increase in temperature under a pegged regime is about −1.4 percentage points on average, while under a flexible regime, the impact is less than one half that amount (−0.6 percentage point). This finding bolsters the idea that exchange rate flexibility not only helps mitigate the initial impact of the shock but also promotes a faster recovery. Importantly, there is evidence of nonlinear effects, whereby greater exchange rate flexibility can be more beneficial for EMDCs with hotter climates. In terms of mechanisms, our findings suggest that the depreciation of the nominal exchange rate under a flexible regime supports real export growth. In contrast to standard theoretical predictions, we find that countercyclical fiscal policy may not be effective under pegged regimes amid high debt, highlighting the importance of the policy mix and precautionary (fiscal) buffers.

Destabilizing Stability? Exchange Rate Arrangements and Foreign Currency Debt

Emerging markets (EMs) often respond to shocks by intervening in foreign exchange (FX) markets and thus preventing full exchange rate adjustment. This response can serve to dampen the effect of shocks and increase monetary policy space but may also incentivize economic participants to increase risk taking and take on more FX debt. This paper empirically analyzes the role of exchange rate flexibility in affecting such risk taking, by using rolling correlations and difference-in-difference estimations. The results suggest that a shift towards greater exchange rate flexibility often coincides with a decline in external FX debt. The findings also highlight the importance of using complementary policies to deal with financial stability issues related to the exchange rate, such as FX-specific macroprudential policies and policies aimed at promoting financial development.

Destabilizing Stability? Exchange Rate Arrangements and Foreign Currency Debt

Emerging markets (EMs) often respond to shocks by intervening in foreign exchange (FX) markets and thus preventing full exchange rate adjustment. This response can serve to dampen the effect of shocks and increase monetary policy space but may also incentivize economic participants to increase risk taking and take on more FX debt. This paper empirically analyzes the role of exchange rate flexibility in affecting such risk taking, by using rolling correlations and difference-in-difference estimations. The results suggest that a shift towards greater exchange rate flexibility often coincides with a decline in external FX debt. The findings also highlight the importance of using complementary policies to deal with financial stability issues related to the exchange rate, such as FX-specific macroprudential policies and policies aimed at promoting financial development.

Morocco

Despite a challenging external environment, four successive PLL arrangements since 2012 have supported reforms to strengthen macroeconomic resilience, economic growth and inclusion. Yet, economic growth, below 3 percent, is not robust enough and unemployment remains high, especially among the youth and women. Growth is also subject to elevated risks, including weak economic growth in the euro area, and geopolitical risks. In this environment, Morocco needs to step up reforms to further enhance its macroeconomic resilience, build buffers, and move towards more private sector-led, inclusive and job-rich growth. Priority areas include: taxation; public governance and the fight against corruption; social spending to reduce inequalities; labor market and education reforms; and greater exchange rate flexibility.

Destabilizing Stability? Exchange Rate Arrangements and Foreign Currency Debt

Emerging markets (EMs) often respond to shocks by intervening in foreign exchange (FX) markets and thus preventing full exchange rate adjustment. This response can serve to dampen the effect of shocks and increase monetary policy space but may also incentivize economic participants to increase risk taking and take on more FX debt. This paper empirically analyzes the role of exchange rate flexibility in affecting such risk taking, by using rolling correlations and difference-in-difference estimations. The results suggest that a shift towards greater exchange rate flexibility often coincides with a decline in external FX debt. The findings also highlight the importance of using complementary policies to deal with financial stability issues related to the exchange rate, such as FX-specific macroprudential policies and policies aimed at promoting financial development.

Impact of Exchange Rate Flexibility on Current Account Rebalancing ⏤ with a Focus on International Capital Flows

Despite the growing attention since the global financial crisis to the role of exchange rate flexibility in global rebalancing, few empirical studies have examined whether a more flexible exchange rate actually helps mitigate global imbalances. Furthermore it is becoming ever more important to consider the active roles of international capital flows, which have been increasing sharply since the 1990's. Against this backdrop, this paper conducts an empirical analysis of the relationship between current account rebalancing and exchange rate flexibility with a particular focus on the role of international capital flows. The results show, firstly, that a more flexible exchange rate de facto helps adjust current account deficits or surpluses significantly. Secondly, greater exchange rate flexibility also encourages inflows of portfolio and other investments, leading to offsetting effects that lower the probability of current account adjustment. This finding implies that foreign capital inflows tend to finance deficits in current-account deficit countries, while helping promote productivity in tradable sectors in current account surplus countries. Thirdly, in countries with more flexible exchange rates, the marginal effect of facilitating current account deficit adjustment and capital inflows is smaller; that is, there exist non-linear effects in the role of exchange rate flexibility. Lastly, if the probability of current account surplus adjustment is higher, foreign portfolio investment tends to flow out significantly, but, there is no such systematic relationship in the case of current account deficit adjustment. These results suggest that greater exchange rate flexibility may not always enhance current account rebalancing, and utilizing foreign capital inflows efficiently is crucial in achieving a sound and resilient macro economy.

International Capital Movement and Monetary Independence in Asia

In this paper, we investigate the extent of monetary independence in a group of ten Asian countries: China, Malaysia, Japan, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong. While the traditional investigation has considered only the bivariate relationship between the home interest rate and the base rate, we employ both single-equation and vector autoregressive representations of the bivariate and the trivariate relationship including the desired (or optimal) interest rate. We find in most countries, that the ranking of monetary independence is relatively consistent across the models and methodologies although model specifications produce important differences for some countries such as Japan, Indonesia, and India. Trilemma suggests that a country cannot accomplish all three policy objectives: monetary independence, exchange rate stability, and free capital mobility. To increase monetary independence a country must choose between greater exchange rate flexibility or a lower degree of capital mobility. The fact that China and Malaysia, the two countries that are known to have imposed the strictest capital controls, consistently rank high in various scenarios while Hong Kong, which has maintained nearly the freest regime in capital markets, is lowest in monetary independence, indicates that perhaps capital controls may play a more important role than does exchange rate flexibility in securing independence in monetary policy making. On the other hand, countries that maintain greater exchange rate stability do not necessarily rank low, unless it is combined with greater capital mobility as in the case of Hong Kong.

Emerging market local currency sovereign bond yields: The role of exchange rate risk

This paper explores the role of exchange rate risk in determining local currency sovereign bond yields in emerging market economies (EMEs). We find that EME local currency sovereign bond yields are indeed influenced by exchange rate risk (volatility and expected depreciation of the exchange rate). This finding holds when controlling for endogeneity and a number of key domestic and international factors. We also show that the effect of exchange rate volatility has strengthened over time, particularly since the US Federal reserve announced in May 2013 that it would reduce the pace and size of its large-scale asset purchases. The influence of exchange rate volatility is less pronounced in EMEs with higher shares of foreign ownership of local currency sovereign bonds, larger capital account openness and greater exchange rate flexibility. Our findings have a number of implications for policymakers, in particular as to how emerging market economies can be vulnerable to perception of greater exchange rate risk as global monetary conditions tighten.

Exchange Rate Flexibility, Financial Market Openness, and Economic Growth

We investigate the effect of exchange rate flexibility on economic growth. We find that exchange rate flexibility negatively affects economic growth, but this effect varies with the degree of financial market openness. Countries with high financial market openness benefit from maintaining high exchange rate flexibility, whereas the opposite is true for countries with low financial market openness. This empirical result implies that policymakers should consider the long-term growth effect when formulating exchange rate policy as it could be a useful policy option for emerging markets with limited policy independence. This is particularly relevant to policy coordination since greater exchange rate flexibility alone cannot solve the global imbalance.

Angola: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Angola

This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that lower oil prices since mid-2014 have placed the Angolan economy under stress. The authorities initially reacted to the oil price shock with significant fiscal tightening and exchange rate adjustments coupled with foreign exchange quantitative restrictions. The policy mix in the run-up to the August 2017 elections—fiscal expansion and pegged exchange rate—led to a further erosion of fiscal and external buffers. President João Lourenço has focused attention on improving governance and restoring macroeconomic stability. The government’s macroeconomic stabilization program envisages: upfront fiscal consolidation; greater exchange rate flexibility; reducing the public debt-to-GDP ratio to 60 percent over the medium term; improving the public debt profile; and settling domestic payments arrears.

Monetary Policy and the Bank of Korea

The purpose of this paper is to explore issues related in the conduct of the monetary policy of the Bank of Korea. Although the paper covers the monetary policy of the Bank for the past 70 years, it mainly focuses on the contemporary issues emerged since the Korean economy has been incorporated into the global financial world in the wake of the Asian financial crisis. Korea has a unique position in the global economy. It is high-income country, but financially less developed. The financial sector has grown fast quantitatively, but not matured qualitatively. As a result, Korea shares the characteristics of emerging market economies located in the periphery of the global financial world and it acts as a key constraint on the monetary policy of the Bank of Korea. It is a well-known stylized fact that capital flows are highly volatile and procyclical in emerging countries and managing capital flows is an issue a central bank of an emerging market economy continue to grapple with. Here, trilemma is only a subset of policy constraints associated with capital flows. The problem confronting the central bank of an emerging country is much worse than that of an advanced country. It is more than the trade-off between macro stabilization and financial stability. It is the trade-off among macro stabilization, financial stability and international payments balance. As Korea has moved toward the global financial world, greater exchange rate flexibility and a massive accumulation of international reserves are not enough to secure monetary policy autonomy. This is the lesson from the global financial crisis. The fundamental reason for this reality is that Korea, like other developed countries, has neither the ability to produce safe assets on its own nor the ability to exchange won-denominated assets for safe assets. In order to enter the center from the periphery of the global financial world, it is necessary to internationalize Korean won. The paper concludes that when considering all things together restoration of self-confidence is a preliminary task in promoting won internationali-zation.

Los regímenes cambiarios en América Latina

Aunque el fin de los acuerdos de Bretton Woods inauguró la era de los tipos de cambio flotantes, el mundo muestra en la actualidad una diversidad de arreglos cambiarios. Las alternativas cambiariasextremas no son una panacea. Los regímenes de flotación administrada son una herramienta sensata de política económica. El tipo de cambio fue una pieza crucial en los programas heterodoxos de estabilización y de fijación total implementados en América Latina en las décadas de los ochenta y los noventa. A partir de los años 2000, la región se ha movido hacia una mayor flexibilidad cambiaria. Estas economías experimentaron los dilemas derivados del miedo a flotar y posteriormente del miedo a apreciar. La flotación con metas de inflación está en boga, pero los países también acuden a la intervención cambiaria. La apreciación de las monedas locales y la falta de flexibilidad cambiaria han sido factores adversos para estas economías.

Policy Challenges in Maintaining Renminbi Stability in China

This paper examines the policy challenges and dilemmas faced by China’s authorities in balancing exchange rate stability with the policy necessity of monetary autonomy. China will have to move toward greater exchange rate flexibility, particularly as the capital account becomes increasingly liberalized and the government pushes forward with RMB internationalization.

Exchange Rate Flexibility, Financial Market Openness and Economic Growth

With global recovery not in sight, along with calls for stronger structural reform, international policy coordination is again under spotlight. Correcting global imbalance would contribute towards closing the demand gap. Emerging economies in particular should allow greater exchange rate flexibility and not intervene in the foreign exchange market to reflect fundamentals. Yet, the impact of greater exchange rate flexibility is unclear as they also struggle to keep their growth momentum alive and hedge against greater exposure to potential capital reversal than ever before. With the loss of monetary policy independence, emerging markets (EMs) are running out of policy options. Against this background, unless international policy coordination is fundamentally recast, a comprehensive review of all emerging market economies’ policy options are in order, including both macro policy instruments, micro measures, and global safety net aimed at attaining the best possible solution to escaping global recession.

Unconventional monetary policy and capital flows

This paper examines the connection between the stance of domestic monetary policy and international capital flows. It first provides a simple theoretical framework describing the mechanisms behind the cross-border spillovers of domestic monetary policy. Then, it empirically investigates the impact of U.S. unconventional monetary policies (UMPs), implemented in the aftermath of the recent global financial crisis, on U.S. capital flows to developing economies and non-UMP advanced economies. The results suggest that the use of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve has been associated with increased net portfolio flows to developing countries and, to a lesser extent, non-UMP advanced economies. An exit from these UMPs is likely to cause capital flow reversals in U.S. capital-importing countries. Countries with greater exchange rate flexibility, stronger fiscal and current account positions, and higher capital mobility are likely to fare well following an exit from UMPs in the U.S.

The Macroeconomic Effects of German Fiscal Austerity under Different Exchange Rate Regimes: The Experience of Central and Eastern European Countries

According to a familiar two-country Mundell-Fleming framework, the policy of fiscal austerity in Germany should be restrictionary for other European countries with a floating exchange rate, while there is a possibility of an expansionary effect for countries with a peg. Using quarterly data of eight Central and Eastern European countries over the 2002–2014 period, it is found with a four-variable VAR model that fiscal austerity in Germany leads to an increase in the money supply and output, while the effects on the real exchange rate are marginal. Our results contrast with several other studies, that imply that the policy of fiscal stimulus in Germany is beneficial for other European countries. Our results could be interpreted in such a way that demand and competitiveness effects are outweighed by the effect of international flows. A strongest expansionary effect is obtained for Bulgaria, Slovakia and Latvia, which maintain fixed exchange rates, while expansionary effects are weaker for countries with greater exchange rate flexibility, such as Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic.

Managing Capital Flows in Asia: An Overview of Key Issues

Global capital flows into emerging markets, including those in Asia, continue to be volatile. These capital flows generate both benefits and costs. The latter are associated with episodes of currency and banking crises like the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 2008 global financial and economic crisis. Policy responses can be implemented to minimize the costs. At the same time, policy responses should vary depending on whether “pull” factors or “push” factors dominate the capital flows. Data show that the main impact of capital flows on economies of East Asia is reflected in real effective exchange rates, equity prices, and accumulation of foreign exchange reserves. If “pull” factors are dominant, policy makers should allow real exchange rates to appreciate in the long-term. Three broad categories of macroeconomic measures are available to countries facing surges of capital inflows, if they are not willing to allow the nominal exchange rate to appreciate: (i) sterilized intervention, (ii) greater exchange rate flexibility, and (iii) fiscal tightening (preferably through expenditure cuts). However, all of them have major drawbacks. Instead, capital controls or, more generally, macroprudential policy can be considered. Other policy recommendations include measures to encourage foreign direct investment, as this type of capital flow is more stable and beneficial; exchange rate coordination to reduce the adverse impacts of currency appreciation on the global competitiveness of domestic firms; and regional financial cooperation, particularly in the development of local bond markets. Recent data show the adverse impact of Quantitative Easing tapering on Asian economies. This is verified by econometric results showing the strong linkages between the United States bond markets and those in Asia. These findings enhance the role of macroprudential policy, which can be implemented in the context of regional cooperation in order to reduce negative spillovers across economies in Asia.

Global Trends in the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime

The raw data suggest that the global trend towards greater exchange rate flexibility that was evident before 1990 has since stopped. An optimum currency area (OCA) model of exchange rate regime choice is estimated. Four different schemes for classifying exchange rate regime are investigated. Trends in the explanatory variables made little difference to the trend towards greater flexibility before 1990 but have worked against it since, largely because of the reduction in inflation. Underlying preferences are still shifting gradually in the direction of greater flexibility.

Currency Exposure in China under the New Exchange Rate Regime: National Level Evidence

AbstractThe present paper studies China's national level currency exposure since 2005 when the country adopted a new exchange rate regime allowing the renminbi (RMB) to move towards greater flexibility. Using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic and constant conditional correlation‐generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic methods to estimate the augmented capital asset pricing models with orthogonalized stock returns, we find that China equity indexes are significantly exposed to exchange rate movements. In a static setting, there is strong sensitivity of stock returns to movements of China's tradeweighted exchange rate, and to the bilateral exchange rates except the RMB/dollar rate. However, in a dynamic framework, exposure to all the bilateral currency pairs under examination is significant. The results indicate that under the new exchange rate regime, China's gradualist approach to moving towards greater exchange rate flexibility has managed to keep exposure to a moderate level. However, we find evidence that in a dynamic setting, the exposure of the RMB to the dollar and other major currencies is significant. For China, the challenge of managing currency risk exposure is looming greater.

A Macro-Model Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting for Vietnam

The paper develops a small New-Keynesian FPAS model for Vietnam. The model closely matches actual data from 2000-2014. We derive an optimal monetary policy rule that minimizes variability of output, inflation, and the exchange rate. Compared to the baseline model, the optimal rule places a larger weight on output stabilization as the intermediate target to achieve inflation stability, while allowing greater exchange rate flexibility. We analyze the dynamics of key macro variables under various shocks including external and domestic demand shocks and a lift-off of U.S. interest rates. We find that the optimal monetary policy rule delivers greater macroeconomic stability for Vietnam under the shock scenarios.