Great Storm Research Articles

Storm Ciarán – synoptic evolution and warning strategy of the intense mid‐latitude windstorm affecting parts of Northwest Europe on 1/2 November 2023

AbstractStorm Ciarán affected northern France, the Channel Islands and the United Kingdom as an intense North Atlantic depression on 1/2 November 2023, bringing damaging winds, large waves, heavy rain and an intense convective development spawning a tornado on Jersey. Amidst an extended period of stormy weather across Northwest Europe, Storm Ciarán was probably the most significant windstorm to affect the Channel Islands and northern France since the Great Storm of 1987 or Storm Lothar in 1999. Here we explore the storm’s evolution, forecasting strategies and challenges and climatological context from the perspective of Met Office operational meteorologists.

A comparative Analytical Investigation of Different Geomagnetic Storms During Solar Cycles 23 and 24

Abstract In this work, the geomagnetic storms that occurred during solar cycles 23 and 24 were classified based on the value of the Disturbance Storm Time index (Dst), which was considered an indicator of the strength of geomagnetic conditions. The special criterion of Dst >-50 nT was adopted in the classification process of the geomagnetic storms based on the minimum daily value of the Dst-index. The number of geomagnetic storms that occurred during the study period was counted according to the adopted criteria, including moderate storms with (Dst >-50 nT), strong storms with (Dst >-100 nT), severe storms with (Dst >-200 nT), and great storms with (Dst >-350 nT). The statistical results showed that the total number of geomagnetic storms identified during solar cycle 23 was 571 storms, while during solar cycle 24, the number of storms decreased to 282 storms. Depending on the minimum value of Dst-index, the geomagnetic storms identified during Cycle 23 were classified into: 446 moderate, 101 strong, 19 severe, and 5 great storms. During Cycle 24, it was classified into: 247 moderate, 34 strong, and 1 severe storm. Also, the results of the study indicated that no storm of either a severe or great type was recorded during the solar cycle 24, given that this cycle witnessed low solar activity. This indicates that solar activity associated with sunspot number (SSN) corresponds to the rate of occurrence and strength of geomagnetic storms of all categories.

Storm Ciarán – an exceptionally severe windstorm in the Channel Islands

AbstractStorm Ciarán was an extremely damaging windstorm which affected southern Britain, the Channel Islands and northern France on 1/2 November 2023. Storm force winds with gusts in excess of 90mph (81kn) widely affected Jersey, along with a severe thunderstorm bringing heavy precipitation, large hail and a severe tornado. Due the development of the storm, warnings were issued well in advance giving the island time to prepare. In many ways, Storm Ciarán was comparable to the Great Storm of 1987, both of which left severe damage across Jersey including widespread damage to homes and infrastructure across the island.

Observational Evidence for the Neutral Wind Responses in the Mid‐Latitude Lower Thermosphere to the Strong Geomagnetic Activity

AbstractBased on two meteor radars in mid‐latitudes of China, the mid‐latitude lower thermospheric neutral wind responses to the 2015 St. Patrick's Day great storm are investigated. The AE and PCN indices presented the similar quasi‐5‐hour oscillations during the storm. Interestingly, the analogous and close‐correlated storm‐time quasi‐5‐hour oscillations were also observed in both the meridional wind differences at 90–102 km derived from meteor radars. The meridional wind disturbances in the lower thermosphere also showed the extension toward the lower latitudes. It has been found that the enhanced equatorward wind disturbances at 250 km estimated by the Horizontal Wind Model‐14 and Fabry‐Perot Interferometer (FPI) emerged accordingly with the increases of AE and PCN with a time delay. And the enhancements of equatorward (poleward) wind disturbances at 250 km were accompanied by the increments of equatorward (poleward) wind disturbances at 94 km with a time lag of a few hours. It is thus suggested that the multiple intensified Joule heating events with quasi‐5‐hour time intervals were triggered by the successive substorm expansions during the storm. Then the Joule heating events led to the vertical wind and temperature disturbances in the mid‐latitude lower thermosphere via disturbing the thermospheric meridional circulation, which consequently induced the quasi‐5‐hour meridional wind disturbances therein.

The Christian and the Philosopher: Defoe's The Storm Between Empiricism and Narrative

AbstractThis article examines the scientific background of Daniel Defoe's The Storm (1704). This work is a collection of letters on the Great Storm, a tempest which battered the south of England on 26–27 November 1703 causing casualties in the thousands and extensive damage. Like other extreme natural phenomena, the Great Storm was interpreted by many as divine warning. This article argues that, differently to Defoe's other works on the Great Storm, The Storm reconciles the traditional religious reading of catastrophes with recent breakthroughs in empiricist philosophy and early meteorology. In its concluding section, the article offers a reassessment of Defoe's interest in scientific ideas in The Storm so as to include early‐eighteenth‐century empiricism and examines Defoe's ambivalent attitude towards them.

Strong surface winds in Storm Eunice. Part 1: storm overview and indications of sting jet activity from observations and model data

Strong surface winds in Storm <i>Eunice</i>. Part 1: storm overview and indications of sting jet activity from observations and model data

The history of UK weather forecasting: the changing role of the central guidance forecaster. Part 5: rapid advances in the forecasting process – the late twentieth century

The early 1980s ushered in rapid advances in forecasting skill with the introduction of the Met Office 15-level model in 1982, including much improved forecasting of cyclogenesis. Nevertheless, there remained many opportunities for forecasters to add value to computer output, for example by using an increasing range of satellite imagery. However, failure to predict the impacts from the Great Storm of October 1987 forced a major rethink of the severe weather warnings strategy. Outputs from other forecasting centres became available, in particular, ensembles from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. New operational working procedures evolved to maximise benefits derived from this ever-increasing volume of information. Figure S1. (a) Infra-red image and global model 6-h forecasts of sea-level pressure valid 1200 utc 27 November 2002 over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Bold red arrow shows an observation of 980hPa which was 12hPa below model expectations. (b) Model forecast and observations for same time on the Met Office ‘intervention’ display screen. Observations differing from the model by >3hPa are shown in red (also circled in red). The wind plotted in cyan has been corrected from an assumed erroneous value. (c) As (b) but with cyan plots including additional ‘bogus’ observations created to attempt to replicate the correct position of the low, as inferred from imagery and observations shown in (b). (d) Imagery and observations for 1200 utc 27 November 2002 with original model 6-h forecast (red) and new analysis following intervention (cyan). (e) As (d) but for 1800 utc 27 November 2002 showing that the benefit of intervention has been retained in the new forecast, with the new forecast (cyan) placing the more vigorous depression centre correctly in the dry slot. Crown copyright. Figure S2. (a) Individual solutions (postage stamps) from the ECMWF ensemble for 1200 utc 17 December 1997 from a forecast initiated at 1200 utc 10 December 1997. (b) Plume of 850hPa temperatures at Herstmonceux (Sussex) up to 10 days ahead from the same ensemble forecast showing the spread of solutions, which typically increases with time. The bold dashed line represents the higher resolution deterministic model solution and the bold solid line the unperturbed (control) run at the lower resolution of the ensemble members. Contours represent probability for 1.0 degC intervals, with increasing density of stippling for successive intervals; 0.5–10%, 10–30%, 30–50% and 50–100%. The deterministic run is an outlier, falling outside the range of the ensemble around days 7 to 8. (c) is the ‘central cluster’, effectively a mean of the most common solutions in the ensemble at 1200 utc 17 December 1997, (d) and (e) are ensemble members representative of minority solutions verifying at the same time. Data S1 Supporting Information Please note: The publisher is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting information supplied by the authors. Any queries (other than missing content) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article.

Energetic Electron and Proton Interactions with Pc5 Ultra Low Frequency (ULF) Waves during the Great Geomagnetic Storm of 15–16 July 2000

The dynamics of the outer zone radiation belt has received a lot of attention mainly due to the correlation between the occurrence of enhancing relativistic electron flux and spacecraft operation anomalies or even failures (e.g., Baker et al. 1994). Relativistic electron events are often observed during great storms associated with ultra low frequency (ULF) waves. For example, a large buildup of relativistic electrons was observed during the great storm of March 24, 1991 (e.g., Li et al. 1993; Hudson et al. 1995; Mann et al. 2013). However, the dominant processes which accelerate magnetospheric radiation belt electrons to MeV energies are not well understood. In this paper, we present observations of Pc5 ULF waves in the recovery phase of the Bastille day storm of July 16, 2000 and electron and proton flux simultaneously oscillating with the same frequencies as the waves. The mechanism for the observed electron and proton flux modulations is examined using groundbased and satellite observations. During this storm time, multiple packets of discrete frequency Pc5 ULF waves appeared associated with energetic particle flux oscillations. We model the drift paths of electrons and protons to determine if the particles drift through the ULF wave to understand why some particle fluxes are modulated by the ULF waves and others are not. We also analyze the flux oscillations of electrons and protons as a function of energy to determine if the particle modulations are caused by a ULF wave drift resonance or advection of a particle density gradient. We suggest that the energetic electron and proton modulations by Pc5 ULF waves provide further evidence in support of the important role that ULF waves play in outer radiation belt dyanamics during storm times.

Large Sunspot Groups and Great Magnetic Storms: Magnetic Suppression of CMEs

A solar spot group with a large area is not a requirement for a great magnetic storm. Nearly half (14/30) of all storms with a minimum Dst value ≤−300 nT from 1932–2014 originated in spot groups with corrected areas ≤1000 millionths of a solar hemisphere (μsh) on the day of the associated eruption. Over the same interval, spot groups with area 3000–4000 μsh were ∼250 times more likely to give rise to a great storm than those with areas from 100–1000 μsh, with the high percentage of great storms originating in small spot groups attributed primarily to the much higher occurrence frequency of such groups. Above ∼3500 μsh, the ability of a spot group to produce a great storm appears to drop abruptly. For the 1932–2014 interval, we find that for the 71 days when a spot group had a measured daily area of 3000–3500 μsh, five great storms were observed versus none for the 67 times when a group spot with an area from 3500 to ∼6000 μsh was observed on the Sun. This is consistent with recent studies indicating that large spot groups on the Sun and stars can suppress coronal mass ejections.

A New Index to Describe the Response of Geomagnetic Disturbance to the Energy Injection from the Solar Wind

In this paper, we establish a new non-dimensional global geomagnetic disturbance index JpG by applying the spectral whitening method to the horizontal components of geomagnetic fields observed at eight ground-based stations distributed at low and middle latitudes during years 1998 to 2014. This index can describe the development of geomagnetic storms and its relationship with the Dst index has been verified, which gives a correlation coefficient (CC) of about 0.72. We also check the response of JpG to the arrival of upstream solar wind energy based on a proxy that the ring current injection term Q. The variation of JpG in course of geomagnetic storms is similar to the variation of Q, and the recorded minimum values of Q (Qmin) and JpG (JpGmin) for 30 great storms yields a relatively better CC of about 0.82. These results illustrate that JpG can effectively depict the storm evolution and is well related to the associated Q in amplitude, which provides an alternative means of geomagnetic storm forecasting. In addition, we note that the time difference between Qmin and JpGmin, as well as the time difference when JpG recovers from JpGmin to half and/or one-third of its value, are shorter than those of the corresponding Dst index. And especially, for multiple storms that occurred continuously on a short time scale, the recovery of the Dst index to a quiet period level can be affected by the following solar wind energy input, while the JpG index does not and exhibits independently.

Before Crusoe: Defoe, Voice, and the Ministry by Penny Pritchard

Reviewed by: Before Crusoe: Defoe, Voice, and the Ministry by Penny Pritchard Patricia Rodrigues Patricia Rodrigues. Penny Pritchard, Before Crusoe: Defoe, Voice, and the Ministry. New York: Routledge, 2019. 177 pp. ISBN 9780367664381. Penny Pritchard's compelling picture of Daniel Defoe's complex authorial personae and the rhetorical strategies common in his earlier works will be of relevance not only to eighteenth-century scholars, but all those who are interested in literary history and Defoe's pivotal place in it. Through close examination of Defoe's nonconformity in his works before 1719, prior to the publication of Robinson Crusoe, Pritchard argues that Defoe forges an innovative form of moral authority through an array of voices reflecting these earlier works' religious perspective. Her vast knowledge of primary and secondary literature on Defoe's extensive oeuvre, its genre, and thematic diversity may justify Pritchard's choice of a conservative canon. Her refusal to engage in "the vexed question of attribution" (53) supports her adherence to Defoe's canon established by Furbank and Owens to avoid including works subject to such debate. Pritchard's analysis of Defoe's early writings provides insight into how his first fiction experiments during the Restoration matured in the early eighteenth century, particularly from a religious perspective. Pritchard explores Defoe's Protestant frame which she considers a "non-specific" Protestantism, drawing on biographical information on Defoe's education, and how his authorial personae in later fiction reflect these religious features. The chapter organization allows for a seamless flow that depicts the evolution of Defoe's authorial personae. The limited chronological range of Defoe's corpus Pritchard analyses is nonetheless extensive, and thus attention devoted to each text is necessarily limited in depth. A more detailed analysis of some of the presumably more significant works is offered to overcome such constraint, but one wonders about the criterion for choosing those particular texts. The introduction briefly discusses each chapter and lays the groundwork for Pritchard's arguments. Pritchard contends that one must consider Defoe's early authorial personae, and how they "reflect their inception within a burgeoning printing culture sensitive to the tastes of a diverse reading public" (1) to fully understand the beginnings of the early English novel and recognize the importance of Robinson Crusoe's role in its genesis. While these early works point to dissenting authorial personae, Pritchard claims that the virtual dismissal of the subject of nonconformity from his writings after 1719 cannot be coincidental, a claim she repeatedly makes throughout her book. The first chapter, "The Nonconformist Catch-22," encapsulates the paradoxes within the culture of English dissent. It addresses the "Happy Unions and Bitter Divisions in Popular Religious Writing," compares Defoe's writings to other non-conformists', and highlights his lack of empathy for his dissenting contemporaries. Pritchard argues that the extent to which Defoe is immersed in an intellectual, ambiguous dissident environment [End Page 181] justifies her investigation of his response to London nonconformity. Her comprehensive knowledge of English Protestant dissent can be rather overwhelming for those who are not extensively acquainted, as she is, with its "myriad of sects" (23). The biblical allusion (Mark 5:9) of the second chapter's title, '"Our name is Legion," unveils how Defoe's authorial personae echoes his address to the British House of Commons, "Legion's Memorial" (May 14, 1701), advocating the right to petition. The chapter highlights the notions of "author" and "authorship," and the voices Defoe uses in different genres. Pritchard argues that there has not yet been enough critical exploration on Defoe's Protestant roots in the variety of voices he invents, focusing on Defoe's religious convictions and moral concerns to persuasively establish just how important a role this plays in his fashioning of different voices. The third chapter, "'You must go Home, and ask my Father': Providence, Empiricism, and Print Culture," discusses the great Storm of 1701, borrowing Defoe's line from his account of the phenomenon. Pritchard contends that in both The Storm and An Essay Upon Projects, Defoe plays the authorial role of a religious and moral mentor. She adds that his early literary works were "sermons in purpose if not in form" (74), which she justifies by...

Carina, Carina

Carina, Carina

The Mechanism for GNSS‐Based Kinematic Positioning Degradation at High‐Latitudes Under the March 2015 Great Storm

AbstractIn this study, we focus on the kinematic precise point positioning (PPP) solutions at high‐latitudes during the March 2015 great geomagnetic storm. We aim to discover the mechanism behind the positioning degradation from the perspective of the impacts of the storm‐induced ionospheric disturbance on the global navigation satellite system (GNSS) data processing. We observed that the phase scintillation dominated the amplitude scintillation at high‐latitudes and the variation pattern of the rate of total electron content index (ROTI) was consistent with that of the phase scintillation during the storm. The kinematic PPP errors at high‐latitudes were almost three times larger than those at the middle‐ and low‐latitude, which were accompanied by large ROTI variations. From the perspective of GNSS data processing, the large positioning errors were also found to be related to the large number of satellites experiencing cycle slips (CSs). Based on the lock time from the ionospheric scintillation monitoring receiver, we found that a large amount of the CSs was falsely detected under the conventional threshold of the CS detector. By increasing such threshold, the kinematic positioning accuracy at high‐latitudes can be improved to obtain similar magnitude as at middle‐ and low‐latitude. The improved positioning accuracy may suggest that the ionospheric disturbance induced by the geomagnetic storm at high‐latitudes has minor effects on triggering the CSs. Therefore, precise positioning can be achieved at high‐latitudes under geomagnetic storms, given that the CS problem is well addressed.

An Ecocritical Reading of the Great Storm Presented in Aldhelm’s Carmen rhythmicum Set Along the Devon/Dorset Coast: An Insight Into the Wider Environmental Damage Affected Across Southern Britain in the Later Seventh Century

An Ecocritical Reading of the Great Storm Presented in Aldhelm’s Carmen rhythmicum Set Along the Devon/Dorset Coast: An Insight Into the Wider Environmental Damage Affected Across Southern Britain in the Later Seventh Century

Julian Whitewright, Editor: The Stirling Castle, a 70-gun Ship Lost in the Great Storm of 1703: Archaeological Investigations 1979–2009

Julian Whitewright, Editor: The Stirling Castle, a 70-gun Ship Lost in the Great Storm of 1703: Archaeological Investigations 1979–2009

Who tells the story in “The Devils”?

Against all numerous complexities and riddles that Dostoevsky’s “The Devils” contain, a great storm of searing passions, insane ideas and wild behavior its characters reprise, the figure of Storyteller often seems lost, pale, quite insignificant. He is merely a mask of the Author, a weaver of narration, a devoted chronicler of what happened. Or is he really? We somehow rarely realize that it’s his eyes we look through and see what is considered to be the “final truth” of the novel, the meaning and motivation behind its heroes’ actions, let alone the deepest secrets of their minds and souls. How come a character all like themselves has all the keys, where’s the source of his all-knowing, and is it only a matter of pure art, a writer’s convention that we must easily accept and pay so much attention? Maybe ignoring this strangeness means we really underestimate the troubling greatness of “The Devils”, its many layers and ruinous conflict that lies at the core of all its confusion.

Discovery of a low-latitude ionospheric trough associated with the inner radiation belt

The dynamics of ionospheric troughs that developed during a great geomagnetic storm on 11–13 April 2001 are studied using measurements of electron density obtained by the CHAMP satellite at an altitude of 410–465 km. Subauroral, mid-latitude and low-latitude troughs were observed at nighttime, sometimes simultaneously. The subauroral trough is usually defined as the main ionospheric trough, whereas the mid-latitude trough is associated with the magnetospheric ring current. It appeared at the beginning of the storm recovery phase around latitudes of 40°–45° GMLat (L = 1.7–2.0) and existed for a long period of time throughout the late recovery phase of the residual ring current at latitudes of 50°–55° GMLat (L ~ 2.4–3.0). For the first time, a low-latitude trough was revealed. It developed at latitudes of 34°–45° GMLat (L = 1.45–2.00) in association with the precipitation of energetic particles from the inner radiation belt.

The appearance of human nature in the artwork of Kazuo Ishiguros

This article proposes a diachronic approach to Ishiguro’s novels aiming at inscribing his last novel in a reflection on the nature of humanity. Thus, Kazuo proved to have a delicate spirit by being able to place unprecedented storms, hurricanes, and great storms in a very convincing way. "Never Let Me Go" 31-year-old Kathy Sh. is based on the touching events of the girl’s years of private schooling and her subsequent life. The author skillfully depicts the love and donation of the protagonists Tommy and Ruth, so that it seems natural for Kathy to become a donor and donate her body parts to patients.

Sub-Auroral, Mid-Latitude, and Low-Latitude Troughs during Severe Geomagnetic Storms

The dynamics of ionospheric troughs during intense geomagnetic storms is considered in this paper. The study is based on electron density measurements at CHAMP satellite altitudes of 405–465 km in the period from 2000 to 2002. A detailed analysis of four storms with Kp from 5+ to 9− is presented. Three troughs were identified: sub-auroral, mid-latitude, and low-latitude. The sub-auroral trough is usually defined as the main ionospheric trough (MIT). The mid-latitude trough is observed equatorward of the MIT and is associated with the magnetospheric ring current; therefore, it is named the ring ionospheric trough (RIT). The RIT appears at the beginning of the storm recovery phase at geomagnetic latitudes of 40–45° GMLat (L = 1.75–2.0) and exists, for a long time, at the late stage of the recovery phase at latitudes of the residual ring current 50–55° GMLat (L ~ 2.5–3.0). The low-latitude trough (LLT) is discovered for the first time. It forms only during great storms at the latitudes of the internal radiation belt (IRB), 34–45° GMLat (L = 1.45–2.0). The LLT’s lowest latitude of 34° GMLat was recorded in the night sector (2–3 LT). The occurrence probability and position of the RIT and LLT depend on the hemisphere and longitude.

The Stirling Castle, a 70-Gun Ship Lost in the Great Storm of 1703: Archaeological Investigations 1979–2009

The <i>Stirling Castle</i>, a 70-Gun Ship Lost in the Great Storm of 1703: Archaeological Investigations 1979–2009