Great Power Rivalry Research Articles

Elite Perceptions of a China-Led Regional Order in Southeast Asia

How do Southeast Asian states perceive a China-led regional order? To answer this question, we conducted a survey of elites from Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, countries that are “least likely” to acquiesce to a China-led regional order. Our survey indicates that although most elites view China as influential and have a cultural affinity with it, they do not perceive China as having the authority to preside over the regional order. They do not identify with China's political values and the normative order it propounds. Our survey also reveals the salience of ASEAN as the region navigates great power rivalry. We explain these views by drawing from the concept of legitimate authority. Our findings are significant; if China cannot persuade its Southeast Asian neighbours of its right to lead, it will be even harder for China to exercise global leadership.

Pendulum swings rather than paradigm shifts: Southeast Asia’s securitisations and the global war on terror

Abstract Two decades into the ‘war on terror’, attention is rapidly shifting away from terrorism. Increasing geopolitical competition between the US and China and Russia’s war in Ukraine prompted talk about a watershed moment in global politics marked by a return of great power competition. To what extent has this paradigm shift – from terrorism to ‘traditional’ considerations of military security from external invasion – taken place in Southeast Asia? Building on securitisation theory, this article argues that the war on terror did not mark a universal historical-political period as it is often presented. In Southeast Asia, so-called non-traditional threats such as terrorism have concerned states since their independence. Therefore, Southeast Asia continued to prioritise ‘traditional’ security threats alongside ‘non-traditional’ ones in what is commonly described as its comprehensive approach to security. Consequently, when the ‘return to geopolitics’ began influencing military doctrine and preparation amongst NATO countries, a similar shift was absent in Southeast Asia. We argue that the region has seen varied emphases on non-traditional versus traditional security threats but did not experience the paradigm shift suggested by the US-dominated security narrative. Southeast Asia’s comprehensive security constellation underscores the need for a more pluralistic and eclectic approach to the study of international relations.

Battles of Influence: A Constructivist and Realist Analysis of Great Power Rivalries and Regional Stability in the 21st Century

Battles of Influence: A Constructivist and Realist Analysis of Great Power Rivalries and Regional Stability in the 21st Century

Dark corners of alliance politics: alliance theory concepts and great power competition

Dark corners of alliance politics: alliance theory concepts and great power competition

Sustainable Strategies to Current Conditions and Climate Change at U.S. Military Bases and Other Nations in the Arctic Region: A 20-Year Comparative Review

Amidst the backdrop of growing great power competition, heightened United States presence via military bases has manifested in the Arctic. However, the then design and implementation have hampered the resilience of these bases in a region warming at nearly four times the rate of the rest of the globe. Two-thirds of the United States’ 79 military bases in the Arctic remain underprepared against permafrost thaw and rising sea levels despite rampant calls for sustainable strategies. Damages emanating from climate-related failures will continue to cost the U.S. billions of dollars and render crucial infrastructure unusable. The objective of this study is to present a comprehensive literature review of the extent of Arctic warming and its significance for U.S. bases, the negative implications of military infrastructure deterioration, and methods to adapt both existing and forthcoming bases to a rapidly warming atmosphere. Eighty published papers that directly or indirectly referenced U.S. military bases or climate-oriented engineering in the aforementioned contexts were identified and analyzed over a 20-year period from 2004 to 2024. The literature review concludes that warming concerns were often not taken into much account by civil engineers during initial base construction, an oversight that now jeopardizes runways, docks, and highways. Other nations that have a sizeable footprint in the Arctic Circle, such as Canada and Russia, have demonstrated progress by utilizing pile-driven substructures, thawing permafrost before construction, and ventilated crawlspaces. Alternative solutions, such as cooling permafrost via thermosiphons or refrigeration systems, employing spatially oriented foundations composed of specific materials, and preventative measures such as floodwalls and revetments, have also shown considerable promise in simulations and practice. A table illustrating a holistic literature summary of sustainable strategies to current conditions and climate change at U.S. Military Bases in the Arctic region is also developed. Modeling successful engineering concepts and incorporating existing innovations into military infrastructure should be at the forefront of the United States’ sustainable policy.

Geopolitical Implications of the US-India Strategic Partnership in the Indo-Pacific Region

A geo-economics and geopolitical analysis of the shifting dynamics of the bilateral relationship between the USA and India has significant implications for the IPE in the Indo-Pacific region. This paper aims to evaluate the interaction process between the US and India, utilizing major theories related to China's emergence. This work, guided by the methodologies of realism, neoclassical realism, constructivism, and geo-economics, analyzes the strategic coordination of security defense technology and economic cooperation. It also scrutinizes how the cooperation impacts regional players such as ASEAN, Japan, and Australia, balancing the divergence of geographical perspectives and India's decoupled strategic sovereignty. The last chapter of the study analyses the transformation of the Indo-Pacific by the partnership and presents ways to advance this alliance. In fact, this paper will assist in developing a theoretical understanding regarding the great-power rivalry with the region and the importance of the bilateral partnership for the maintenance of the rule-based international order.

Disputed geometries of great power politics: US–China perspectives on minilateralism

ABSTRACT This article analyzes the theoretical and empirical development of contemporary minilateralism through the lens of US–China great power competition. The aim is to assess four theoretically informed predictions about US and Chinese minilateral formation: (a) the US would form minilaterals more readily than China, (b) the US would appreciate minilaterals more than China, (c) the US and China would have differing rhetorical approaches to discussing the value of minilaterals, and (d) that minilaterals formed in the contemporary period would tend toward institutionalisation in order to ensure their persistence (a reflection of the long-term nature of Sino-US competition). Following the Introduction, section II provides a descriptive, empirical overview of the perspectives on minilateralism in Washington and Beijing, focusing on the US judgment that they are an asymmetric advantage for the US, and China’s evaluation that they are a risk to its foreign and security policy strategy. Section III examines a set of US-led minilateral cases (Quad 2.0, AUKUS, US-Japan-South Korea, US-Japan-Australia, and US-Japan-Philippines) and the Chinese responses to their development. Finally, section IV concludes with thoughts on policy implications, as well as other avenues of research.

The quest for leadership in multilateral institutions: Great power rivalries and middle powers in the WTO

ABSTRACT This article investigates the great power rivalry of the US and China at the World Trade Organization (WTO) through the lens of cooptation dynamics. First, it argues that the accession of China to the WTO is a case of top-down cooptation meant to tame opposition to the US-led international order and to restrain China from security competition. Second, it explains why this cooptation deal was not durable and led to feedback effects that fueled the US’ loss of interest in maintaining a powerful WTO. Third, it shows how the WTO crisis triggers a current bottom-up effort by middle powers to re-stabilize the WTO through the mechanism of Joint Statement Initiatives, which attempt to re-commit the US to leadership. The article shows that the US’ undermining of the WTO and the institutional reaction it evokes in other members are part of a reactive sequence dynamic driven by failed cooptation bargains.

It pays to be generous: How cooptation transforms power rivalries

ABSTRACT In some cases, hegemonic powers manage to turn dissatisfied (former) rivals into satisfied partners by means of cooptation. Yet, in other cases, similar cooptation attempts result in failure. Why? We argue that the generosity of the hegemon’s cooptation offer is of utmost importance for whether cooptation succeeds or fails to overcome the rivalry with coopted great powers. When hegemonic powers offer a generous cooptation deal, a virtuous circle sets in that may socialize great power rivals into the order dominated by the hegemon. When, by contrast, the cooptation offer is not generous, a vicious circle is likely to develop, which may even exacerbate the great power rivalry. To assess the empirical plausibility of this socialization-by-cooptation theory, we study the cooptation of Germany after World War II, the cooptation of Russia after the Cold War, and the contemporary cooptation of China into the international financial system.

Making sense of the interaction between geopolitics and middle-technology trap: evidence from China’s catching-up CNC machine tool industry

This study proposes a framework to analyze the interaction between geopolitics and the Middle-Technology Trap, drawing on evidence from China's CNC machine-tool industry. Qualitative methods such as interviews have been utilized to identify geopolitical variables that have driven the development of the Chinese CNC machine tools industry. To explore the combined effects of the Middle-Technology Trap and the intense competition between China and the West, this article focuses on an industry that has been significantly influenced by the economic decoupling between China and the US, a phenomenon deeply rooted in recent great power competition. While several industries may illustrate the new status quo of the Middle-Technology Trap, the CNC machine-tool industry is particularly exemplary due to its close interrelation with geopolitics. Accordingly, this study presents a catch-up case that incorporates technology-oriented aspects and factors from strategic competition, underlining three scenarios that geopolitics could influence the result of addresing the Middle-Technology Trap, respectively technological decoupling, the relocation of supply chain, and industrial policy.

Complex cooptation: How regime complexity affects the stability of cooptation bargains—the case of China and the World Bank

ABSTRACT How do variations in regime complexity affect the overall stability of cooptation bargains amidst shifting great power rivalries? Increased complexity creates opportunities for institutional bargaining during cooptation deal negotiations, enabling cooptees to explore outside-options, engage in regime-shifting and countervailing institutional creation. While great power dynamics influence actors’ decisions regarding cooptation deals, regime complexity shapes their ability to employ cross-institutional strategies, affecting deal stability. Focusing on China's cooptation deal with the World Bank since 1980, we find that during the Cold War, the deal remained stable due to China's limited outside-options and significant power asymmetry with the US. Post-Cold War, increased complexity offered China with only limited outside-options, while it couldn't effectively engage in regime-shifting. The establishment of the AIIB, however, threatens the stability of the cooptation deal made in World Bank by providing China with genuine orum-shopping and regime-shifting opportunities. This analysis highlights how regime complexity and power dynamics interact to affect cooptation bargain stability amid evolving global rivalries.

Understanding ASEAN's Perception and Response to Japan's "Indo-Pacific Strategy"

The ASEAN region is located along Japan's critical maritime lifeline and has maintained close cooperation with Japan in various fields for an extended period, making it a pivotal point for Japan's "Indo-Pacific Strategy". To successfully advance this strategy, Japan has strengthened cooperation with ASEAN and its member states in the economic and maritime security sectors through dual-track diplomacy, seeking ASEAN's recognition and support for the strategy. ASEAN views Japan's policies as beneficial to its development and capable of enhancing its strategic autonomy to some extent. However, the regional order constructed by Japan's "Indo-Pacific Strategy" undermines ASEAN's centrality in the regional security architecture and negatively impacts its amicable relations with China. To preserve its centrality, ASEAN introduced the "ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific", aiming to articulate its vision and stance clearly to maintain its central role in regional affairs. Furthermore, ASEAN employs a hedging strategy amid great power competition to safeguard its interests and actively collaborates with external countries to expand its strategic autonomy.

The Many Semantic Lives of Geopolitics: Evidence from the New York Times Archive 1900-2023

ABSTRACT Henry Kissinger’s death foregrounds a puzzle in the history of geopolitics. How did a word made infamous by Nazi Germany become so ubiquitous and popular in the English-speaking world? Was Kissinger, a Jewish refugee from Nazi Germany, responsible for its rehabilitation into respectability in English? Historians, geographers and political scientists have traced how Western geopolitical thought developed in the twentieth century through transatlantic imperial rivalry and knowledge field formations. But there is no quantitative discourse analysis of the many ways in which the word is used in the English language. Responding to this absence, this paper uses both quantitative and qualitative discourse analysis to study how the word was employed in the New York Times from 1900 to 2023. Analysis of this corpus, and select examples from it, reveals the limits of three common presumptions about geopolitics: that it entered English as a synonym for Nazi foreign policy philosophy, that its use carried a stigma, and that Henry Kissinger led a revival of the word from the 1970s. Rather, the corpus record reveals a term with many semantic lives, a stigma that did not endure, and a synonym for great power competition and resource rivalry whose popularity is due to many factors besides Kissinger’s influence. Cluster of meaning around rivals and resources, books and culture, and US power define the term’s use in American geopolitical culture.

Undersea cable security in the Indo‐Pacific: Enhancing the Quad’s collaborative approach

Undersea communication cables carry the bulk of global communications, intelligence, and financial transactions daily. They are increasingly threatened, and Australia, Japan, India, and the US have begun coordinating cable security activities in the Indo-Pacific as the Quad. This article investigates the Quad’s role in undersea cable communication security, and analyzes its motivations, strengths, and the challenges it faces thereby illuminating the Quad’s evolving position in international security and its role in global governance. In doing so, it evaluates the Quad’s significance in addressing emerging security threats in the Indo-Pacific, attempts to fill critical gaps in policy formulation, and contributes to theories of informality and global governance. It begins by outlining threats to undersea communication cables. Second, it details the Quad Partnership for Cable Connectivity and Resilience within the context of an informal intergovernmental organization literature. Third, it provides recommendations for policy formulation in undersea cable security and explores the Quad's potential for improving connectivity, resilience, and security. Finally, the article emphasizes the need to tailor policies to India’s unique position within the Quad and explores proactive measures like floating Quad-supported cable repair ships. These recommendations offer insights for policymakers to bolster global communication infrastructure, resilience, and provide public goods amidst multipolarity and great power rivalry.

Peran Indonesia dalam Mewujudkan Stabilitas Keamanan Kawasan Regional Asean di Tengah Perebutan Pengaruh Negara-Negara Great Power

Geopolitical developments in Southeast Asia have become the center of attention of major world powers, especially the United States and China. ASEAN, through the ADMM and ADMM-Plus forums, plays an important role in maintaining regional security stability. This study aims to analyze Indonesia's role in realizing security stability in the ASEAN region in the midst of great power competition. The research methods used are qualitative with in-depth interviews, case studies, and secondary data analysis from various sources, including policy reports and official government statements. The results of the study show that Indonesia plays a role as a diplomatic mediator, a reinforcer of regional cooperation, and a defender of ASEAN sovereignty. ADMM-Plus also faces challenges in expanding membership, which requires careful geopolitical considerations. In conclusion, Indonesia has a crucial role in maintaining regional stability through multilateral cooperation and conflict resolution efforts in ASEAN.

Conceptualizing National Security in an Era of Great Power Rivalry: Implications for International Economic Law

AbstractUntil recently, the national security exception in investment and trade was understood in terms of defense against military invasion or attack and possibly extendable to economic collapse. However, national security is increasingly understood far beyond the classical contours of territorial integrity. Driven primarily by the China-U.S. hegemonic competition, the new conceptualization is exemplified in a dramatic expansion in U.S. investment and trade measures based upon conceptualizing national security as encompassing threats to a fusion of interrelated spheres of national strength including economic, technological, and ideological power. Moreover, the U.S. now understands security as the retention of superiority in an array of power spheres and encompasses denying China access to emerging technologies. China has similarly expanded her definition of security which is often referenced as “national interests” and embraces political stability (Party dominance), social stability, ideological security, and the defense of Chinese overseas interests, all of which lie far outside the classical definition of security. The untethered expansion in both the U.S. and Chinese conceptualization of security raises significant ramifications for the international economic architecture. As the guardrails of security are abandoned in pursuit of policy goals, a potentially overly broad and excessive notion of security risks deepening several overlapping perils to the current international legal landscape. The focus of this article is on the expansion of the national security exception in investment and trade and potential implications arising from an unfettered expansion.

Russia vs America cyber war: space technology mastery competition

Mastery of computers and information systems in international relations is one of the elements of a country's new power. In the context of cyber warfare, Russia and the United States are trying to modernize their technology to secure their countries in the event of an attack from the opposing party. This research aims to analyze the space technology competition carried out by two major countries, namely Russia and the United States, to achieve Great Power status in the international world. This research focuses on the technological achievements of Russia and the United States in the field of space and their implementation in the form of cyber warfare. A qualitative case study is the research method chosen by the researcher. The research stages used by researchers are divided into data collection stages and data reduction, and the next stage is that researchers conduct analysis using data reduction techniques, namely summarizing, selecting, and focusing on the things needed in this study. The results of this study show that national security priorities are number one, and especially defense priorities for the United States are no longer terrorism but great power competition. NATO is an alliance or political tool that the US relies on to achieve great power.

The Role of Soft Power in Great Power Rivalries: Challenges, Solutions, and Strategies, Focus on International Relations Theories

The rebirth of major power competition has led to a significant transformation in the global order. This study digs into the complex nature of this occurrence, examining its underlying reasons, displays, and possible outcomes in deferent angle. By utilizing a comparative analysis of realist, liberal, constructivist, and critical theoretical perspectives, the paper aims to shed light on the theoretical foundations of the current geopolitical dynamics. By critically assessing these theories, this paper highlights major obstacles to global stability, such as the escalation of arms races, the decline of multilateral institutions, and the increased threat of interstate conflicts and misunderstanding. Furthermore, this paper explores potential ways for collaboration and conflict resolution, drawing on insights from a variety of theoretical frameworks together with existing and current example from different conflicting countries. Marxism and Feminism are also highly shown in this paper which mostly focus on discussing their views toward GPC. In essence, this paper tries to develop our comprehension of major power competition and guide the formulation of efficient strategies to mitigate its destabilizing impacts.

Tech wars: Distributional consequences of global tech rivalry

AbstractInternational competition over sophisticated tech is a modern feature of great power rivalry. Yet the automation delivered by this tech is a key source of rising inequality. While policy motivations stem primarily from great power political and defense competition, the automation has consequences for wider economic performance. We examine global economic consequences, using a six‐region global macro model with multiple households, under Rawlsian, Benthamite, capital friendly, or GDP maximizing policy criteria. Tech drives are shown to deliver higher capital returns and more growth, and therefore to represent dominant strategies under all but a Rawlsian criterion, despite their exacerbation of inequality and low‐skilled poverty. We then consider Gini‐reducing fiscal interventions. These are shown to have few international spill‐over effects and to be domestically attractive only under the Rawlsian criterion.

Goal displacement under great-power competition: Control problems at the periphery of the U.S. alliance system

This analysis uncovers how a third tier of semiautonomous security actors prioritize relative influence over strategic goals that often differ from U.S. strategic priorities of competition with Russia and China. Third-tier powers such as the Arctic country the Faroe Islands and the Pacific country Solomon Islands use jurisdiction over nonmilitary security issues such as infrastructure and law and order management as bargaining tools for leveraging influence and attracting resources by cooperating with U.S. adversaries. Goal displacement encourages the U.S. first-tier power to micromanage control problems at the periphery of the U.S. alliance system by enhanced monitoring and interference.