Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment Total Water Storage Research Articles

Colored noise in GRACE total water storage time series: Its impact on trend significance in the Türkiye region and major world river basins

Temporal correlations are prevalent in most geophysical time series data, leading to what is known as colored noise, which become more apparent in the frequency domain rather than time domain. Neglecting this type of noise in modeling can result in underestimated standard errors for the parameters of the model used to analyze the time series. As a result, statistical tests misinterpret the significance of these parameters, such as the overall trend rate, because the “signal to noise” ratio becomes incorrectly larger than it should be. In this study, we investigate the temporal correlations in the time series data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. GRACE and its successor mission GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) have been successfully employed to monitor global total water storage anomalies over two decades since its initial launch in 2002. We primarily utilize monthly GRACE mascon (mass concentration) solutions provided by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), examining both regional and global scales. The power spectrum density of the residuals, calculated after applying standard harmonic regression to each mascon time series on Earth’s land, reveals an average spectral index of κ = −1. This indicates the predominance of flicker noise, one of the most common forms of colored noise in geodetic time series. Notably, the noise becomes more Brownian (κ < −1) in regions with intense hydrological events, while it tends to be more white noise (κ → 0) in areas with less water circulation compared to other land regions. This observation suggests that unmodelled hydrological events, such as droughts, floods, and ones associated with ice-melting, contribute to the residuals as colored noise in the time series. To account for this noise in our time series modeling, we primarily consider autoregressive (AR) moving average (MA) process, commonly known as ARMA, in addition to the standard variance component estimation for noise amplitudes. We focus on individual mascon blocks in the Türkiye Region and mascon solutions for 24 world’s major river basins. Our findings demonstrate that an ARMA(1,1) model is sufficient for describing the noise in these regions. The results underscore the importance of considering colored noise, as it leads to approximately three times larger standard errors for the overall trend rate. This substantially impacts the significance of the trend rates.

Hydrological trends captured by assimilating GRACE total water storage data into the CLM5-BGC model

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) encompasses various components such as snow water, surface water, canopy water, soil water, and groundwater. Therefore, TWS is strongly affected by several factors including climate change, floods, drought, and anthropogenic activities. Predicting and quantifying TWS is critical in understanding terrestrial water cycles, as well as for managing water resources at the regional and global scale. TWS can be monitored with the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites and estimated using land surface models (LSMs) on various spatial scales. The present study demonstrated how large-scale TWS data assimilation affects model performance by assessing the variations in TWS and related hydrological variables. Moreover, unlike traditional physical-based models, the assimilation of TWS data into an LSM enabled the assessment of anthropogenic impacts. TWS data from GRACE was assimilated into the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) with the CLM5-BGC biogeochemistry module covering the East Asia region. The model was forced using 40-ensemble meteorological forcing data from 2003 to 2010 and GRACE TWS data were assimilated using the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF). Data assimilation markedly improved the performance of the model, as demonstrated by a decrease in the root mean square error from 0.71 mm/month in the free run (FR) without data assimilation to 0.48 mm/month in the data assimilation (DA) run, in addition to an increase in the correlation coefficient from 0.55 in FR to 0.69 in DA. Additionally, unlike the FR model, the DA model effectively captured the observed negative trends of the TWS, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration in Northern India and the Northern China Plain. Finally, our findings also demonstrated that the anthropogenic contribution to the negative trend of the TWS over Northern India and Northern China Plain was marginally increased in the DA model compared to the FR model. Collectively, our findings demonstrated that TWS data assimilation enables a more realistic evaluation of the long-term and large-scale changes in hydrologic variables.

Identification of Drought Events in Major Basins of Africa from GRACE Total Water Storage and Modeled Products

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) plays a vital role in climatological and hydrological processes. Most of the developed drought indices from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) over Africa neglected the influencing roles of individual water storage components in calculating the drought index and thus may either underestimate or overestimate drought characteristics. In this paper, we proposed a Weighted Water Storage Deficit Index for drought assessment over the major river basins in Africa (i. e., Nile, Congo, Niger, Zambezi, and Orange) with accounting for the contribution of each TWS component on the drought signal. We coupled the GRACE data and WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model through utilizing the component contribution ratio as the weight. The results showed that water storage components demonstrated distinctly different contributions to TWS variability and thus drought signal response in onset and duration. The most severe droughts over the Nile, Congo, Niger, Zambezi, and Orange occurred in 2006, 2012, 2006, 2006, and 2003, respectively. The most prolonged drought of 84 months was observed over the Niger basin. This study suggests that considering the weight of individual components in the drought index provides more reasonable and realistic drought estimates over large basins in Africa from GRACE.

Reconstruction of GRACE terrestrial water storage anomalies using Multi-Layer Perceptrons for South Indian River basins.

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission began in 2002 and ended in June 2017. GRACE applications are limited in their ability to study long-term water cycle behavior because the data is limited to a short period, i.e., from 2002 to 2017. In this study, we aim to reconstruct (1960-2002) GRACE total water storage anomalies (TWSA) to obtain a continuous TWS time series from 1960 to 2016 over four river basins of South India, namely the Godavari, Krishna, Cauvery and Pennar River basins, using Multilayer Perceptrons (MLP). The Seasonal Trend Decomposition using Loess procedure (STL) method is used to decompose GRACE TWSA and forcing datasets into linear trend, interannual, seasonal, and residual parts. Only the de-seasoned (i.e., interannual and residual) components are reconstructed using the MLP method after the linear trend and seasonal components are removed. Seasonal component is added back after reconstruction of de-seasoned GRACE TWSA to obtain complete TWSA series from 1960 to 2016. The reconstructed GRACE TWSA are converted to groundwater storage anomalies (GWSA) and compared with nearly 2000 groundwater observation well networks. The results conclude that the MLP model performed well in reconstructing GRACE TWSA at basin scale across four river basins. Godavari (GRB) experienced the highest correlation (r = 0.96) between the modelled TWSA and GRACE TWSA, followed by Krishna (KRB) with r = 0.93, Cauvery (CRB) with r = 0.91, and Pennar (PCRB) with r = 0.92. The seasonal GWSA from GRACE (GWSAGRACE) correlated well with the GWSA from groundwater observation wells (GWSAOBS) from 2003 to 2016. KRB exhibited the highest correlation (r=0.85) followed by GRB (r=0.81), PCRB (r=0.81) and CRB (r=0.78). The established MPL technique could be used to reconstruct long-term TWSA. The reconstructed TWSA data could be useful for understanding long-term trends, as well as monitoring and forecasting droughts and floods over the study regions.

Evaluating downscaling methods of GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) data: a case study over a fractured crystalline aquifer in southern India

Abstract. GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) and its follow-on mission have provided since 2002 monthly anomalies of total water storage (TWS), which are very relevant to assess the evolution of groundwater storage (GWS) at global and regional scales. However, the use of GRACE data for groundwater irrigation management is limited by their coarse (≃300 km) resolution. The last decade has thus seen numerous attempts to downscale GRACE data at higher – typically several tens of kilometres – resolution and to compare the downscaled GWS data with in situ measurements. Such comparison has been classically made in time, offering an estimate of the static performance of downscaling (classic validation). The point is that the performance of GWS downscaling methods may vary in time due to changes in the dominant hydrological processes through the seasons. To fill the gap, this study investigates the dynamic performance of GWS downscaling by developing a new metric for estimating the downscaling gain (new validation) against non-downscaled GWS. The new validation approach is tested over a 113 000 km2 fractured granitic aquifer in southern India. GRACE TWS data are downscaled at 0.5∘ (≃50 km) resolution with a data-driven method based on random forest. The downscaling performance is evaluated by comparing the downscaled versus in situ GWS data over a total of 38 pixels at 0.5∘ resolution. The spatial mean of the temporal Pearson correlation coefficient (R) and the root mean square error (RMSE) are 0.79 and 7.9 cm respectively (classic validation). Confronting the downscaled results with the non-downscaling case indicates that the downscaling method allows a general improvement in terms of temporal agreement with in situ measurements (R=0.76 and RMSE = 8.2 cm for the non-downscaling case). However, the downscaling gain (new validation) is not static. The mean downscaling gain in R is about +30 % or larger from August to March, including both the wet and dry (irrigated) agricultural seasons, and falls to about +10 % from April to July during a transition period including the driest months (April–May) and the beginning of monsoon (June–July). The new validation approach hence offers for the first time a standardized and comprehensive framework to interpret spatially and temporally the quality and uncertainty of the downscaled GRACE-derived GWS products, supporting future efforts in GRACE downscaling methods in various hydrological contexts.

Autoregressive Reconstruction of Total Water Storage within GRACE and GRACE Follow-On Gap Period

For 15 years, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission have monitored total water storage (TWS) changes. The GRACE mission ended in October 2017, and 11 months later, the GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) mission was launched in May 2018. Bridging the gap between both missions is essential to obtain continuous mass changes. To fill the gap, we propose a new approach based on a remove–restore technique combined with an autoregressive (AR) prediction. We first make use of the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) hydrological model to remove climatology from GRACE/GRACE-FO data. Since the GLDAS mis-models real TWS changes for many regions around the world, we further use least-squares estimation (LSE) to remove remaining residual trends and annual and semi-annual oscillations. The missing 11 months of TWS values are then predicted forward and backward with an AR model. For the forward approach, we use the GRACE TWS values before the gap; for the backward approach, we use the GRACE-FO TWS values after the gap. The efficiency of forward–backward AR prediction is examined for the artificial gap of 11 months that we create in the GRACE TWS changes for the July 2008 to May 2009 period. We obtain average differences between predicted and observed GRACE values of at maximum 5 cm for 80% of areas, with the extreme values observed for the Amazon, Alaska, and South and Northern Asia. We demonstrate that forward–backward AR prediction is better than the standalone GLDAS hydrological model for more than 75% of continental areas. For the natural gap (July 2017–May 2018), the misclosures in backward–forward prediction estimated between forward- and backward-predicted values are equal to 10 cm. This represents an amount of 10–20% of the total TWS signal for 60% of areas. The regional analysis shows that the presented method is able to capture the occurrence of droughts or floods, but does not reflect their magnitudes. Results indicate that the presented remove–restore technique combined with AR prediction can be utilized to reliably predict TWS changes for regional analysis, but the removed climatology must be properly matched to the selected region.

Detecting the Spatial Mismatch of Water Resources and Grain Planting Pattern Changes in China Based on Satellite Data

China has achieved sustained growth in grain production and significant changes in grain patterns since the early 21st century. Meanwhile, the contradiction between the shortage of water resources and the development of agriculture is becoming more and more severe. This study introduced Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity satellite Total Water Storage (TWS) Product to indicate total water storage and calculated the Cumulated Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (CNDVI) of cropland as an indicator for grain growth. Based on the continuous satellite data, this paper revealed the spatial mismatch between water resources supply and grain growth pattern in China. The center of gravity of the CNDVI tends to move northwest, while the GRACE TWS data’s center of gravity is in the opposite direction. There were different relationships between GRACE-TWS and CNDVI changes in different zones. We calculated the pixel-wise spatial Pearson Correlation coefficients of TWS and CNDVI. The TWS data and CNDVI data show negative correlation trends in the water-limited areas such as the northern arid-semiarid region and northern China plain, while they show a positive correlation in relatively sufficient water resources in southeast China. According to the results, the changing pattern of grain production in China is likely to cause the depletion of grain production potential in the water-limited regions, while the southeastern regions with higher potential still have more capacity for agricultural production.

Evaluating Groundwater Storage Change and Recharge Using GRACE Data: A Case Study of Aquifers in Niger, West Africa

Accurately assessing groundwater storage changes in Niger is critical for long-term water resource management but is difficult due to sparse field data. We present a study of groundwater storage changes and recharge in Southern Niger, computed using data from NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. We compute a groundwater storage anomaly estimate by subtracting the surface water anomaly provided by the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) model from the GRACE total water storage anomaly. We use a statistical model to fill gaps in the GRACE data. We analyze the time period from 2002 to 2021, which corresponds to the life span of the GRACE mission, and show that there is little change in groundwater storage from 2002–2010, but a steep rise in storage from 2010–2021, which can partially be explained by a period of increased precipitation. We use the Water Table Fluctuation method to estimate recharge rates over this period and compare these values with previous estimates. We show that for the time range analyzed, groundwater resources in Niger are not being overutilized and could be further developed for beneficial use. Our estimated recharge rates compare favorably to previous estimates and provide managers with the data required to understand how much additional water could be extracted in a sustainable manner.

RECOG RL01: correcting GRACE total water storage estimates for global lakes/reservoirs and earthquakes

Abstract. Observations of changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) obtained from the satellite mission GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) have frequently been used for water cycle studies and for the improvement of hydrological models by means of calibration and data assimilation. However, due to a low spatial resolution of the gravity field models, spatially localized water storage changes, such as those occurring in lakes and reservoirs, cannot properly be represented in the GRACE estimates. As surface storage changes can represent a large part of total water storage, this leads to leakage effects and results in surface water signals becoming erroneously assimilated into other water storage compartments of neighbouring model grid cells. As a consequence, a simple mass balance at grid/regional scale is not sufficient to deconvolve the impact of surface water on TWS. Furthermore, non-hydrology-related phenomena contained in the GRACE time series, such as the mass redistribution caused by major earthquakes, hamper the use of GRACE for hydrological studies in affected regions. In this paper, we present the first release (RL01) of the global correction product RECOG (REgional COrrections for GRACE), which accounts for both the surface water (lakes and reservoirs, RECOG-LR) and earthquake effects (RECOG-EQ). RECOG-LR is computed from forward-modelling surface water volume estimates derived from satellite altimetry and (optical) remote sensing and allows both a removal of these signals from GRACE and a relocation of the mass change to its origin within the outline of the lakes/reservoirs. The earthquake correction, RECOG-EQ, includes both the co-seismic and post-seismic signals of two major earthquakes with magnitudes above Mw9. We discuss that applying the correction dataset (1) reduces the GRACE signal variability by up to 75 % around major lakes and explains a large part of GRACE seasonal variations and trends, (2) avoids the introduction of spurious trends caused by leakage signals of nearby lakes when calibrating/assimilating hydrological models with GRACE, and (3) enables a clearer detection of hydrological droughts in areas affected by earthquakes. A first validation of the corrected GRACE time series using GPS-derived vertical station displacements shows a consistent improvement of the fit between GRACE and GNSS after applying the correction. Data are made available on an open-access basis via the Pangaea database (RECOG-LR: Deggim et al., 2020a, https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.921851; RECOG-EQ: Gerdener et al., 2020b, https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.921923).

Downscaling GRACE total water storage change using partial least squares regression

The Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission recorded temporal variations in the Earth’s gravity field, which are then converted to Total Water Storage Change (TWSC) fields representing an anomaly in the water mass stored in all three physical states, on and below the surface of the Earth. GRACE provided a first global observational record of water mass redistribution at spatial scales greater than 63000 km2. This limits their usability in regional hydrological applications. In this study, we implement a statistical downscaling approach that assimilates 0.5° × 0.5° water storage fields from the WaterGAP hydrology model (WGHM), precipitation fields from 3 models, evapotranspiration and runoff from 2 models, with GRACE data to obtain TWSC at a 0.5° × 0.5° grid. The downscaled product exploits dominant common statistical modes between all the hydrological datasets to improve the spatial resolution of GRACE. We also provide open access to scripts that researchers can use to produce downscaled TWSC fields with input observations and models of their own choice.

Re-assessing global water storage trends from GRACE time series

Monitoring changes in freshwater availability is critical for human society and sustainable economic development. To identify regions experiencing secular change in their water resources, many studies compute linear trends in the total water storage (TWS) anomaly derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission data. Such analyses suggest that several major water systems are under stress (Rodell et al 2009 Nature 460 999–1002; Long et al 2013 Geophys. Res. Lett. 40 3395–401; Richey et al 2015 Water Resour. Res. 51 5217–38; Voss et al 2013 Water Resour. Res. 49 904–14; Famiglietti 2014 Nat. Clim. Change. 4 945–8; Rodell et al 2018 Nature 557 651–9). TWS varies in space and time due to low frequency natural variability, anthropogenic intervention, and climate-change (Hamlington et al 2017 Sci. Rep. 7 995; Nerem et al 2018 Proc. Natl Acad. Sci.). Therefore, linear trends from a short time series can only be interpreted in a meaningful way after accounting for natural spatiotemporal variability in TWS (Paolo et al 2015 Science 348 327–31; Edward 2012 Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 L01702). In this study, we first show that GRACE TWS trends from a short time series cannot determine conclusively if an observed change is unprecedented or severe. To address this limitation, we develop a novel metric, trend to variability ratio (TVR), that assesses the severity of TWS trends observed by GRACE from 2003 to 2015 relative to the multi-decadal climate-driven variability. We demonstrate that the TVR combined with the trend provides a more informative and complete assessment of water storage change. We show that similar trends imply markedly different severity of TWS change, depending on location. Currently more than 3.2 billion people are living in regions facing severe water storage depletion w.r.t. past decades. Furthermore, nearly 36% of hydrological catchments losing water in the last decade have suffered from unprecedented loss. Inferences from this study can better inform water resource management.

Reconstruction of GRACE Total Water Storage Through Automated Machine Learning

AbstractThe Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission and its follow‐on, GRACE‐FO, have provided unprecedented opportunities to quantify the impact of climate extremes and human activities on total water storage at large scales. The ∼1‐year data gap between the two GRACE missions needs to be filled to maintain data continuity and maximize mission benefits. In this study, we applied an automated machine learning (AutoML) workflow to perform gridwise GRACE‐like data reconstruction. AutoML represents a new paradigm for optimal algorithm selection, model structure selection, and hyperparameter tuning, addressing some of the most challenging issues in machine learning applications. We demonstrated the workflow over the conterminous U.S. (CONUS) using six types of machine learning models and multiple groups of meteorological and climatic variables as predictors. Results indicate that the AutoML‐assisted gap filling achieved satisfactory performance over the CONUS. On the testing data, the mean gridwise Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency is around 0.85, the mean correlation coefficient is around 0.95, and the mean normalized root‐mean‐square‐error is about 0.09. Trained models maintain good performance when extrapolating to the mission gap and to GRACE‐FO periods (after June 2017). Results further suggest that no single algorithm provides the best predictive performance over the entire CONUS, stressing the importance of using an end‐to‐end workflow to train, optimize, and combine multiple machine learning models to deliver robust performance, especially when building large‐scale hydrological prediction systems and when predictor importance exhibiting strong spatial variability.

A Remote Sensing-Based Assessment of Water Resources in the Arabian Peninsula

A better understanding of the spatiotemporal distribution of water resources is crucial for the sustainable development of hyper-arid regions. Here, we focus on the Arabian Peninsula (AP) and use remotely sensed data to (i) analyze the local climatology of total water storage (TWS), precipitation, and soil moisture; (ii) characterize their temporal variability and spatial distribution; and (iii) infer recent trends and change points within their time series. Remote sensing data for TWS, precipitation, and soil moisture are obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E), respectively. The study relies on trend analysis, the modified Mann–Kendall test, and change point detection statistics. We first derive 10-year (2002–2011) seasonal averages from each of the datasets and intercompare their spatial organization. In the absence of large-scale in situ data, we then compare trends from GRACE TWS retrievals to in situ groundwater observations locally over the subdomain of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). TWS anomalies vary between −6.2 to 3.2 cm/month and −6.8 to −0.3 cm/month during the winter and summer periods, respectively. Trend analysis shows decreasing precipitation trends (−2.3 × 10−4 mm/day) spatially aligned with decreasing soil moisture trends (−1.5 × 10−4 g/cm3/month) over the southern part of the AP, whereas the highest decreasing TWS trends (−8.6 × 10−2 cm/month) are recorded over areas of excessive groundwater extraction in the northern AP. Interestingly, change point detection reveals increasing precipitation trends pre- and post-change point breaks over the entire AP region. Significant spatial dependencies are observed between TRMM and GRACE change points, particularly over Yemen during 2010, revealing the dominant impact of climatic changes on TWS depletion.

A new approach for generating optimal GLDAS hydrological products and uncertainties

This study proposes a new approach that can be used to generate the optimal surface state information and associated uncertainties from the estimates provided by the six land surface models used by the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). The Förstner and best quadratic unbiased variance component estimators are used simultaneously with the least-squares method to calculate optimal values and the associated uncertainties. To demonstrate the concept, the research focused on three GLDAS hydrological products, namely soil moisture (SM), snow water equivalent (SWE), and canopy water (CAN) over the Canadian Prairies. When the Förstner estimator is applied, the estimated SM and SWE differ from their corresponding mean values by 26 mm and 9 mm respectively. Almost similar result was found with the best quadratic estimator. The estimated maximum uncertainties of each component including SM, SWE and CAN vary from year to year (e.g. 35 mm in 2006, 12 mm in 2007 and 2009 and 0.1 mm in 2001, respectively). The uncertainties of the total water storage (TWS) are almost similar to that of SM, which contributes more importantly to TWS in the area considered. The results obtained by the two proposed estimators were compared to the waterGAP hydrological models (WGHM), and to the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) terrestrial water storage anomalies. The optimal SWE anomalies generated from GLDAS using the proposed approach show a maximum correlation of r = 0.97 with the WGHM SWE anomalies. The optimal TWS anomalies have a correlation of r = 0.91 with WGHM, and r = 0.71 with GRACE. However, the correlation jumps to r = 0.81 when GRACE TWS is corrected for groundwater signals (with a mean RMSE of 8.5 mm). The RMSE and mean absolute error between our proposed methods and WGHM and GRACE are better than those obtained with each individual LSM or their average value. No significant mean bias error is observed in each case. Finally, the analysis of the time-lag characteristics of the resonance period between the results and their coherence was done by using a cross wavelet transform and a wavelet coherence analysis.

Analysis of Groundwater and Total Water Storage Changes in Poland Using GRACE Observations, In-situ Data, and Various Assimilation and Climate Models

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) observations have provided global observations of total water storage (TWS) changes at monthly intervals for over 15 years, which can be useful for estimating changes in GWS after extracting other water storage components. In this study, we analyzed the TWS and groundwater storage (GWS) variations of the main Polish basins, the Vistula and the Odra, using GRACE observations, in-situ data, GLDAS (Global Land Data Assimilation System) hydrological models, and CMIP5 (the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) climate data. The research was conducted for the period between September 2006 and October 2015. The TWS data were taken directly from GRACE measurements and also computed from four GLDAS (VIC, CLM, MOSAIC, and NOAH) and six CMIP5 (FGOALS-g2, GFDL-ESM2G, GISS-E2-H, inmcm4, MIROC5, and MPI-ESM-LR) models. The GWS data were obtained by subtracting the model TWS from the GRACE TWS. The resulting GWS values were compared with in-situ well measurements calibrated using porosity coefficients. For each time series, the trends, spectra, amplitudes, and seasonal components were computed and analyzed. The results suggest that in Poland there has been generally no major TWS or GWS depletion. Our results indicate that when comparing TWS values, better compliance with GRACE data was obtained for GLDAS than for CMIP5 models. However, the GWS analysis showed better consistency of climate models with the well results. The results can contribute toward selection of an appropriate model that, in combination with global GRACE observations, would provide information on groundwater changes in regions with limited or inaccurate ground measurements.

Spatial Downscaling of GRACE TWSA Data to Identify Spatiotemporal Groundwater Level Trends in the Upper Floridan Aquifer, Georgia, USA

Accurate assessments of groundwater resources in major aquifers across the globe are crucial for sustainable management of freshwater reservoirs. Observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite have become invaluable as a means to identify regions groundwater change. While there is a large body of research that focuses on downscaling coarse (1°) GRACE products, few studies have attempted to spatially downscale GRACE to produce fine resolution (5 km) maps that are more useful to resource managers. This study trained a boosted regression tree model to statistically downscale GRACE total water storage anomaly to monthly 5 km groundwater level anomaly maps in the karstic upper Floridan aquifer (UFA) using multiple hydrologic datasets. Evaluation of spatial predictions with existing groundwater wells indicated satisfactory performance (R = 0.79, NSE = 0.61). Results demonstrate that groundwater levels were stable between 2002–2016 but varied seasonally. The data also highlights areas where groundwater pumping is exacerbating UFA water-level declines. While results demonstrate the applicability of machine learning based methods for spatial downscaling of GRACE data, future studies should account for preferential flowpaths (i.e., conduits, lineaments) in karstic systems.

Model-data fusion of hydrologic simulations and GRACE terrestrial water storage observations to estimate changes in water table depth

Despite numerous advances in continental-scale hydrologic modeling and improvements in global Land Surface Models, an accurate representation of regional water table depth (WTD) remains a challenge. Data assimilation of observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission leads to improvements in the accuracy of hydrologic models, ultimately resulting in more reliable estimates of lumped water storage. However, the usually shallow groundwater compartment of many models presents a problem with GRACE assimilation techniques, as these satellite observations also represent changes in deeper soils and aquifers. To improve the accuracy of modeled groundwater estimates and allow the representation of WTD at finer spatial scales, we implemented a simple, yet novel approach to integrate GRACE data, by augmenting the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. First, the subsurface model structural representation was modified by incorporating an additional (fourth) soil layer of varying depth (up to 1000 m) in VIC as the bottom ‘groundwater’ layer. This addition allows the model to reproduce water storage variability not only in shallow soils but also in deeper groundwater, in order to allow integration of the full GRACE-observed variability. Second, a Direct Insertion scheme was developed that integrates the high temporal (daily) and spatial (∼6.94 km) resolution model outputs to match the GRACE resolution, performs the integration, and then disaggregates the updated model state after the assimilation step. Simulations were performed with and without Direct Insertion over the three largest river basins in California and including the Central Valley, in order to test the augmented model's ability to capture seasonal and inter-annual trends in the water table. This is the first-ever fusion of GRACE total water storage change observations with hydrologic simulations aiming at the determination of water table depth dynamics, at spatial scales potentially useful for local water management.

Trends and Interannual Variability in Terrestrial Water Storage Over the Eastern United States, 2003–2016

AbstractWe examine the relative contributions of root zone soil moisture (SM) and groundwater (GW) storage to trends and interannual variability in total water storage (TWS) from essentially the entire Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) record (2003–2016). Our study region is the Eastern United States where GW generally is shallow, and we use observations and simulations from a suite of land surface models (LSMs) where observations are not available. We first consider Illinois, which has a long‐term network of SM sensors and observation wells. We assessed the uncertainties in GRACE TWS in comparison with the observation‐based TWS using observed SM, well‐derived GW, and model‐reconstructed snow water equivalent. We evaluated LSM SM compared with observations over Illinois; generally good agreement encouraged us to use the LSM‐ensemble average SM, well‐derived GW, and Snow Data Assimilation System snow water equivalent over the entire Eastern United States to examine the relative contribution of storage components to GRACE TWS over this larger domain. Taken together, the three components explained 2%–85% of interannual variability in GRACE TWS across the 2‐digit Hydrologic Unit Code regions. Root zone SM was the dominant contributor to the interannual variability (but not trends) of GRACE TWS over much of the Eastern United States. We also compared three independent approaches to estimating GW: well data, baseflow observations, and GRACE. Despite much smaller magnitudes of variation, baseflow‐derived GW correlated more highly with well‐derived GW over the eastern‐most and Upper Mississippi regions, while GRACE‐derived GW matched better with well‐derived GW over the remaining regions.

Response of vegetation cover to climate variability in protected and grazed arid rangelands of South Australia

Large-scale drought and wet phases, via ecosystem responses, can significantly influence the global atmospheric carbon budget. Australian landscapes, dominated by arid and semi-arid rangelands, play an important role in this regard. In this study, temporal variation of monthly Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of two rangelands with different grazing intensity were analysed against monthly precipitation and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) total water storage (TWS). The results show that regardless grazing regime, over 55% temporal variation of monthly NDVI anomaly can be explained by structured cumulative antecedent precipitation. It appears that the antecedent precipitation forms better predictor variables than GRACE TWS for this study area. The results also show that both grazing and drought reduce vegetation cover, and its response to precipitation. Drought exacerbates the grazing impact on NDVI-precipitation response. These results imply that grazing in arid and semi-arid rangelands can reduce the capacity of ecosystems to assimilate atmospheric CO2 during wet years and episodic wet events. It is important to incorporate temporal structures of intra- and inter-annual antecedent precipitation in investigating vegetation dynamic responses to precipitation. By doing so, it is possible to predict monthly vegetation dynamics to support grazing management.

Understanding the association between climate variability and the Nile's water level fluctuations and water storage changes during 1992–2016

With the construction of the largest dam in Africa, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) along the Blue Nile, the Nile is back in the news. This, combined with Bujagali Dam on the White Nile are expected to bring ramification to the downstream countries. A comprehensive analysis of the Nile's waters (surface, soil moisture and groundwater) is, therefore, essential to inform its management. Owing to its shear size, however, obtaining in-situ data from “boots on the ground” is practically impossible, paving way to the use of satellite remotely sensed and models' products. The present study employs multi-mission satellites and surface models' products to provide, for the first time, a comprehensive analysis of the changes in Nile's stored waters' compartments; surface, soil moisture and groundwater, and their association to climate variability (El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)) over the period 1992–2016. In this regard, remotely sensed altimetry data from TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P), Jason-1, and Jason-2 satellites along with the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Project (TRMM) rainfall products are applied to analyze the compartmental changes over the Nile River Basin (NRB). This is achieved through the creation of 62 virtual gauge stations distributed throughout the Nile River that generate water levels, which are used to compute surface water storage changes. Using GRACE total water storage (TWS), soil moisture data from multi-models based on the Triple Collocation Analysis (TCA) method, and altimetry derived surface water storage, Nile basin's groundwater variations are estimated. The impacts of climate variability on the compartmental changes are examined using TRMM precipitation and large-scale ocean-atmosphere ENSO and IOD indices. The results indicate a strong correlation between the river level variations and precipitation changes in the central part of the basin (0.77 on average) in comparison to the northern (0.64 on average) and southern parts (0.72 on average). Larger water storages and rainfall variations are observed in the Upper Nile in contrast to the Lower Nile. A negative groundwater trend is also found over the Lower Nile, which could be attributed to a significantly lower amount of rainfall in the last decade and extensive irrigation over the region.