Gravitational Wave Background Signal Research Articles

The second data release from the European Pulsar Timing Array

Aims.The nanohertz gravitational wave background (GWB) is expected to be an aggregate signal of an ensemble of gravitational waves emitted predominantly by a large population of coalescing supermassive black hole binaries in the centres of merging galaxies. Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs), which are ensembles of extremely stable pulsars at approximately kiloparsec distances precisely monitored for decades, are the most precise experiments capable of detecting this background. However, the subtle imprints that the GWB induces on pulsar timing data are obscured by many sources of noise that occur on various timescales. These must be carefully modelled and mitigated to increase the sensitivity to the background signal.Methods.In this paper, we present a novel technique to estimate the optimal number of frequency coefficients for modelling achromatic and chromatic noise, while selecting the preferred set of noise models to use for each pulsar. We also incorporated a new model to fit for scattering variations in the Bayesian pulsar timing package temponest. These customised noise models enable a more robust characterisation of single-pulsar noise. We developed a software package based on tempo2 to create realistic simulations of European Pulsar Timing Array (EPTA) datasets that allowed us to test the efficacy of our noise modelling algorithms.Results.Using these techniques, we present an in-depth analysis of the noise properties of 25 millisecond pulsars (MSPs) that form the second data release (DR2) of the EPTA and investigate the effect of incorporating low-frequency data from the Indian Pulsar Timing Array collaboration for a common sample of ten MSPs. We used two packages, enterprise and temponest, to estimate our noise models and compare them with those reported using EPTA DR1. We find that, while in some pulsars we can successfully disentangle chromatic from achromatic noise owing to the wider frequency coverage in DR2, in others the noise models evolve in a much more complicated way. We also find evidence of long-term scattering variations in PSR J1600-3053. Through our simulations, we identify intrinsic biases in our current noise analysis techniques and discuss their effect on GWB searches. The analysis and results discussed in this article directly help to improve the sensitivity to the GWB signal and they are already being used as part of global PTA efforts.

Hunting the stochastic gravitational wave background in pulsar timing array cross correlations through theoretical uncertainty

Incredible progress on the theoretical uncertainty of the spatial correlations of the stochastic gravitational wave (GW) background were recently made. However, it remains to realize the impact of this theoretical uncertainty on PTA cross correlations analysis. This paper pushes forward in this direction, as a proof-of-principle: showing the potential role that theoretical uncertainty has on unburying the stochastic GW background signal in noisy PTA cross correlation measurements. We consider both a mock data set and the noise-marginalized 12.5 years NANOGrav spatial correlation measurements, and find optimistic conclusions regardless of the physical content of the GW background and the nature of the noise in the data. Very briefly, we show through various cases a modest result that looking out for a stochastic signal is better when two of its moments are utilized. Or, in terms of GWs, we show that the theoretical uncertainty can play a substantial role in the hunt for the stochastic GW background.

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Constraints on Supermassive Black Hole Binaries from the Gravitational-wave Background

The NANOGrav 15 yr data set shows evidence for the presence of a low-frequency gravitational-wave background (GWB). While many physical processes can source such low-frequency gravitational waves, here we analyze the signal as coming from a population of supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries distributed throughout the Universe. We show that astrophysically motivated models of SMBH binary populations are able to reproduce both the amplitude and shape of the observed low-frequency gravitational-wave spectrum. While multiple model variations are able to reproduce the GWB spectrum at our current measurement precision, our results highlight the importance of accurately modeling binary evolution for producing realistic GWB spectra. Additionally, while reasonable parameters are able to reproduce the 15 yr observations, the implied GWB amplitude necessitates either a large number of parameters to be at the edges of expected values or a small number of parameters to be notably different from standard expectations. While we are not yet able to definitively establish the origin of the inferred GWB signal, the consistency of the signal with astrophysical expectations offers a tantalizing prospect for confirming that SMBH binaries are able to form, reach subparsec separations, and eventually coalesce. As the significance grows over time, higher-order features of the GWB spectrum will definitively determine the nature of the GWB and allow for novel constraints on SMBH populations.

A Quasar-based Supermassive Black Hole Binary Population Model: Implications for the Gravitational Wave Background

Abstract The nanohertz gravitational wave background (GWB) is believed to be dominated by GW emission from supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs). Observations of several dual-active galactic nuclei (AGN) strongly suggest a link between AGN and SMBHBs, given that these dual-AGN systems will eventually form bound binary pairs. Here we develop an exploratory SMBHB population model based on empirically constrained quasar populations, allowing us to decompose the GWB amplitude into an underlying distribution of SMBH masses, SMBHB number density, and volume enclosing the GWB. Our approach also allows us to self-consistently predict the number of local SMBHB systems from the GWB amplitude. Interestingly, we find the local number density of SMBHBs implied by the common-process signal in the NANOGrav 12.5-yr data set to be roughly five times larger than previously predicted by other models. We also find that at most ∼25% of SMBHBs can be associated with quasars. Furthermore, our quasar-based approach predicts ≳95% of the GWB signal comes from z ≲ 2.5, and that SMBHBs contributing to the GWB have masses ≳108 M ⊙. We also explore how different empirical galaxy–black hole scaling relations affect the local number density of GW sources, and find that relations predicting more massive black holes decrease the local number density of SMBHBs. Overall, our results point to the important role that a measurement of the GWB will play in directly constraining the cosmic population of SMBHBs, as well as their connections to quasars and galaxy mergers.

Astrophysics Milestones for Pulsar Timing Array Gravitational-wave Detection

Abstract The NANOGrav Collaboration reported strong Bayesian evidence for a common-spectrum stochastic process in its 12.5 yr pulsar timing array data set, with median characteristic strain amplitude at periods of a year of . However, evidence for the quadrupolar Hellings & Downs interpulsar correlations, which are characteristic of gravitational-wave signals, was not yet significant. We emulate and extend the NANOGrav data set, injecting a wide range of stochastic gravitational-wave background (GWB) signals that encompass a variety of amplitudes and spectral shapes, and quantify three key milestones. (I) Given the amplitude measured in the 12.5 yr analysis and assuming this signal is a GWB, we expect to accumulate robust evidence of an interpulsar-correlated GWB signal with 15–17 yr of data, i.e., an additional 2–5 yr from the 12.5 yr data set. (II) At the initial detection, we expect a fractional uncertainty of 40% on the power-law strain spectrum slope, which is sufficient to distinguish a GWB of supermassive black hole binary origin from some models predicting more exotic origins. (III) Similarly, the measured GWB amplitude will have an uncertainty of 44% upon initial detection, allowing us to arbitrate between some population models of supermassive black hole binaries. In addition, power-law models are distinguishable from those having low-frequency spectral turnovers once 20 yr of data are reached. Even though our study is based on the NANOGrav data, we also derive relations that allow for a generalization to other pulsar timing array data sets. Most notably, by combining the data of individual arrays into the International Pulsar Timing Array, all of these milestones can be reached significantly earlier.

Model Dependence of Bayesian Gravitational-wave Background Statistics for Pulsar Timing Arrays

Abstract Pulsar timing array (PTA) searches for a gravitational-wave background (GWB) typically include time-correlated “red” noise models intrinsic to each pulsar. Using a simple simulated PTA data set with an injected GWB signal we show that the details of the red noise models used, including the choice of amplitude priors and even which pulsars have red noise, have a striking impact on the GWB statistics, including both upper limits and estimates of the GWB amplitude. We find that the standard use of uniform priors on the red noise amplitude leads to 95% upper limits, as calculated from one-sided Bayesian credible intervals, that are less than the injected GWB amplitude 50% of the time. In addition, amplitude estimates of the GWB are systematically lower than the injected value by 10%–40%, depending on which models and priors are chosen for the intrinsic red noise. We tally the effects of model and prior choice and demonstrate how a “dropout” model, which allows flexible use of red noise models in a Bayesian approach, can improve GWB estimates throughout.

The gravitational wave background signal from tidal disruption events

ABSTRACT In this paper, we derive the gravitational wave stochastic background from tidal disruption events (TDEs). We focus on both the signal emitted by main-sequence stars disrupted by supermassive black holes (SMBHs) in galaxy nuclei and on that from disruptions of white dwarfs by intermediate-mass black holes (IMBHs) located in globular clusters. We show that the characteristic strain hc’s dependence on frequency is shaped by the pericenter distribution of events within the tidal radius and under standard assumptions hc∝f−1/2. This is because, the TDE signal is a burst of gravitational waves at the orbital frequency of the closest approach. In addition, we compare the background characteristic strains with the sensitivity curves of the upcoming generation of space-based gravitational wave interferometers: the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), TianQin, ALIA, the DECI-hertz inteferometer Gravitational wave Observatory (DECIGO), and the Big Bang Observer (BBO). We find that the background produced by main-sequence stars might be just detected by BBO in its lowest frequency coverage, but it is too weak for all the other instruments. On the other hand, the background signal from TDEs with white dwarfs will be within reach of ALIA, and especially of DECIGO and BBO, while it is below the LISA and TianQin sensitive curves. This background signal detection will not only provide evidence for the existence of IMBHs up to redshift z ∼ 3, but it will also inform us on the number of globular clusters per galaxy and on the occupation fraction of IMBHs in these environments.

The NANOGrav 11 Year Data Set: Pulsar-timing Constraints on the Stochastic Gravitational-wave Background

Abstract We search for an isotropic stochastic gravitational-wave background (GWB) in the newly released 11 year data set from the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav). While we find no evidence for a GWB, we place constraints on a population of inspiraling supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries, a network of decaying cosmic strings, and a primordial GWB. For the first time, we find that the GWB constraints are sensitive to the solar system ephemeris (SSE) model used and that SSE errors can mimic a GWB signal. We developed an approach that bridges systematic SSE differences, producing the first pulsar-timing array (PTA) constraints that are robust against SSE errors. We thus place a 95% upper limit on the GW-strain amplitude of A GWB < 1.45 × 10−15 at a frequency of f = 1 yr−1 for a fiducial f −2/3 power-law spectrum and with interpulsar correlations modeled. This is a factor of ∼2 improvement over the NANOGrav nine-year limit calculated using the same procedure. Previous PTA upper limits on the GWB (as well as their astrophysical and cosmological interpretations) will need revision in light of SSE systematic errors. We use our constraints to characterize the combined influence on the GWB of the stellar mass density in galactic cores, the eccentricity of SMBH binaries, and SMBH–galactic-bulge scaling relationships. We constrain the cosmic-string tension using recent simulations, yielding an SSE-marginalized 95% upper limit of Gμ < 5.3 × 10−11—a factor of ∼2 better than the published NANOGrav nine-year constraints. Our SSE-marginalized 95% upper limit on the energy density of a primordial GWB (for a radiation-dominated post-inflation universe) is ΩGWB(f) h 2 < 3.4 × 10−10.

All correlations must die: Assessing the significance of a stochastic gravitational-wave background in pulsar timing arrays

We present two methods for determining the significance of a stochastic gravitational-wave (GW) background affecting a pulsar-timing array, where detection is based on evidence for quadrupolar spatial correlations between pulsars. Rather than constructing noise simulations, we eliminate the GWB spatial correlations in the true datasets to assess detection significance with all real data features intact. In our first method, we perform random phase shifts in the signal-model basis functions. This phase shifting eliminates signal phase coherence between pulsars, while keeping the statistical properties of the pulsar timing residuals intact. We then explore a method to null correlations between pulsars by using a "scrambled" overlap-reduction function in the signal model for the array. This scrambled function is orthogonal to what we expect of a real GW background signal. We demonstrate the efficacy of these methods using Bayesian model selection on a set of simulated datasets that contain a stochastic GW signal, timing noise, undiagnosed glitches, and uncertainties in the Solar system ephemeris. Finally, we introduce an overarching formalism under which these two techniques are naturally linked. These methods are immediately applicable to all current pulsar-timing array datasets, and should become standard tools for future analyses.

Hyper-efficient model-independent Bayesian method for the analysis of pulsar timing data

A new model independent method is presented for the analysis of pulsar timing data and the estimation of the spectral properties of an isotropic gravitational wave background (GWB). We show that by rephrasing the likelihood we are able to eliminate the most costly aspects of computation normally associated with this type of data analysis. When applied to the International Pulsar Timing Array Mock Data Challenge data sets this results in speedups of approximately 2 to 3 orders of magnitude compared to established methods. We present three applications of the new likelihood. In the low signal to noise regime we sample directly from the power spectrum coefficients of the GWB signal realization. In the high signal to noise regime, where the data can support a large number of coefficients, we sample from the joint probability density of the power spectrum coefficients for the individual pulsars and the GWB signal realization. Critically in both these cases we need make no assumptions about the form of the power spectrum of the GWB, or the individual pulsars. Finally we present a method for characterizing the spatial correlation between pulsars on the sky, making no assumptions about the form of that correlation, and therefore providing the only truly general Bayesian method of confirming a GWB detection from pulsar timing data.

Imprint of the merger and ring-down on the gravitational wave background from black hole binaries coalescence

We compute the gravitational wave background (GWB) generated by a cosmological population of black hole-black hole (BH-BH) binaries using hybrid waveforms recently produced by numerical simulations of (BH-BH) coalescence, which include the inspiral, merger, and ring-down contributions. A large sample of binary systems is simulated using the population synthesis code SeBa, and we extract fundamental statistical information on (BH-BH) physical parameters (primary and secondary BH masses, orbital separations and eccentricities, formation, and merger time scales). We then derive the binary birth and merger rates using the theoretical cosmic star formation history obtained from a numerical study which reproduces the available observational data at redshifts $z<8$. We evaluate the contributions of the inspiral, merger, and ring-down signals to the GWB, and discuss how these depend on the parameters which critically affect the number of coalescing (BH-BH) systems. We find that Advanced LIGO/Virgo have a chance to detect the GWB signal from the inspiral phase with a $(S/N)=10$ only for the most optimistic model, which predicts the highest local merger rate of $0.85\text{ }\text{ }{\mathrm{Mpc}}^{\ensuremath{-}3}\text{ }{\mathrm{Myr}}^{\ensuremath{-}1}$. Third generation detectors, such as the Einstein Telescope (ET), could reveal the GWB from the inspiral phase predicted by any of the considered models. In addition, ET could sample the merger phase of the evolution at least for models which predict local merger rates between $[0.053--0.85]\text{ }\text{ }{\mathrm{Mpc}}^{\ensuremath{-}3}\text{ }{\mathrm{Myr}}^{\ensuremath{-}1}$, which are more than a factor 2 lower than the upper limit inferred from the analysis of the LIGO S5 run [J. Abadie et al., Phys. Rev. D 83, 122005 (2011)]. The frequency dependence and amplitude of the GWB generated during the coalescence is very sensitive to the adopted core mass threshold for BH formation. This opens up the possibility to better understand the final stages of the evolution of massive stellar binaries using observational constraints on the associated gravitational wave emission.

STOCHASTIC GRAVITATIONAL WAVE BACKGROUND FROM COALESCING BINARY BLACK HOLES

We estimate the stochastic gravitational wave (GW) background signal from the field population of coalescing binary stellar mass black holes (BHs) throughout the Universe. This study is motivated by recent observations of BH-Wolf-Rayet star systems and by new estimates in the metallicity abundances of star forming galaxies that imply BH-BH systems are more common than previously assumed. Using recent analytical results of the inspiral-merger-ringdown waveforms for coalescing binary BH systems, we estimate the resulting stochastic GW background signal. Assuming average quantities for the single source energy emissions, we explore the parameter space of chirp mass and local rate density required for detection by advanced and third generation interferometric GW detectors. For an average chirp mass of 8.7$M_{\odot}$, we find that detection through 3 years of cross-correlation by two advanced detectors will require a rate density, $r_0 \geq 0.5 \rm{Mpc}^{-3} \rm{Myr}^{-1}$. Combining data from multiple pairs of detectors can reduce this limit by up to 40%. Investigating the full parameter space we find that detection could be achieved at rates $r_0 \sim 0.1 \rm{Mpc}^{-3} \rm{Myr}^{-1}$ for populations of coalescing binary BH systems with average chirp masses of $\sim 15M_{\odot}$ which are predicted by recent studies of BH-Wolf-Rayet star systems. While this scenario is at the high end of theoretical estimates, cross-correlation of data by two Einstein Telescopes could detect this signal under the condition $r_0 \geq 10^{-3} \rm{Mpc}^{-3} \rm{Myr}^{-1}$. Such a signal could potentially mask a primordial GW background signal of dimensionless energy density, $\Omega_{\rm{GW}}\sim 10^{-10}$, around the (1--500) Hz frequency range.