Reservoir quality prediction in deeply buried reservoirs represents a complex challenge to geoscientists. In sandstones, reservoir quality is determined by the extent of compaction and cementation during burial. During compaction, porosity is lost through the rearrangement and fracture of rigid grains and the deformation of ductile grains. During cementation, porosity is predominantly lost through the growth of quartz cement, although carbonate and clay mineral growth can be locally important. The degree of quartz cementation is influenced by the surface area of quartz available for overgrowth nucleation and thermal history. Clay grain coats can significantly reduce the surface area of quartz available for overgrowth nucleation, preventing extensive cementation. Using a coupled-effect compaction and cementation model, we have forward-modelled porosity evolution of surface sediments from the modern Ravenglass Estuary under different maximum burial conditions, between 2000 and 5000 m depth, to aid the understanding of reservoir quality distribution in a marginal marine setting. Seven sand-dominated sub-depositional environments were subject to five burial models to assess porosity-preservation in sedimentary facies. Under relatively shallow burial conditions (<3000 m), modelled porosity is highest (34 to 36%) in medium to coarse-grained outer-estuary sediments due to moderate sorting and minimal fine-grained matrix material. Fine-grained tidal flat sediments (mixed flats) experience a higher degree of porosity loss due to elevated matrix volumes (20 to 31%). Sediments subjected to deep burial (>4000 m) experience a significant reduction in porosity due to extensive quartz cementation. Porosity is reduced to 1% in outer estuary sediments that lack grain-coating clays. However, in tidal flat sediments with continuous clay grain coats, porosity values of up to 30% are maintained due to quartz cement inhibition. The modelling approach powerfully emphasises the value of collecting quantitative data from modern analogue sedimentary environments to reveal how optimum reservoir quality is not always in the coarsest or cleanest clastic sediments.
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