Gradual Climate Change Research Articles

Parameterisation of a bluetongue virus mathematical model using a systematic literature review

Bluetongue virus (BT) is a vector-borne virus that causes a disease, called bluetongue, which results in significant economic loss and morbidity in sheep, cattle, goats and wild ungulates across all continents of the world except Antarctica. Despite the geographical breadth of its impact, most BT epidemiological models are informed by parameters derived from the 2006–2009 BTV-8 European outbreak. The aim of this study was to develop a highly adaptable model for BT which could be used elsewhere in the world, as well as to identify the parameters which most influence outbreak dynamics, so that policy makers can be properly informed with the most current information to aid in disease planning.To provide a framework for future outbreak modelling and an updated parameterisation that reflects natural variation in infections, a newly developed and parameterised two-host, two-vector species ordinary differential equation model was formulated and analysed. The model was designed to be adaptable to be implemented in any region of the world and able to model both epidemic and endemic scenarios. It was parameterised using a systematic literature review of host-to-vector and vector-to-host transmission rates, host latent periods, host infectious periods, and vaccine protection factors. The model was demonstrated using the updated parameters, with South Africa as a setting based on the Western Cape’s known cattle and sheep populations, local environmental parameters, and Culicoides spp. presence data.The sensitivity analysis identified that the duration of the infectious period for sheep and cows had the greatest impact on the outbreak length and number of animals infected at the peak of the outbreak. Transmission rates from cows and sheep to C. imicola midges greatly influenced the day on which the peak of the outbreak occurred, along with the duration of incubation period, and infectious period for cows. Finally, the protection factor of the vaccine had the greatest influence on the total number of animals infected. This knowledge could aid in the development of control measures.Due to gradual climate and anthropological change resulting in alterations in vector habitat suitability, BT outbreaks are likely to continue to increase in range and frequency. Therefore, this research provides an updated BT modelling framework for future outbreaks around the world to explore transmission, outbreak dynamics and control measures.

Climate-Driven Increases in Source Water Natural Organic Matter: Implications for the Sustainability of Drinking Water Treatment.

This study presents an updated analysis spanning over two decades (1999-2023) of climate, water quality, and operational data from two drinking water facilities in Atlantic Canada that previously experienced gradual increases in the natural organic matter (NOM) concentration and brownification. The goal was to assess the impact of recent extreme weather events on acute NOM concentration increases and drinking water treatment processes. In 2023, a dry spring combined with a warm and wet summer caused NOM in the water supplies to increase by >67% (as measured by color). To mitigate increased NOM concentration, the alum dose nearly doubled in 2023 compared to that in 2022. Disinfection byproducts were elevated following the event but remained within the compliance levels. From 1999 to 2023, the two plants responded to gradual climate change impacts and brownification, with alum dose increases of between 4.1 and 8.3 times. Equivalent CO2 emissions were estimated for alum usage, which increased by 3 to 7-fold in 2023 compared to when the plants were commissioned decades prior. The plants were not only adversely impacted by climate change but also contributed to the global CO2 burden. Thus, a paradigm shift toward sustainable alternatives for NOM removal is required in the water sector, and climate change adaptation and mitigation principles are urgently needed.

Evaluating the impacts of anthropogenic, climate, and land use changes on streamflow

Abstract Several factors, including natural and human-induced, can affect river discharge. This study aims to examine the influence of land use changes and climate change on the monthly average streamflow time series in the Talar River basin, in northern Iran. To investigate the impact of human factors, namely land use change and point source operations, on monthly average streamflow, the DBEST method was used to detect any breakpoint in the streamflow time series caused by gradual changes in land use and climate. The SWAT model was used to simulate the basin at Kiakola and Shirghah stations, between 2001 and 2020. The land use maps were created for the years 2001 and 2019. Calibration and validation at the Kiakola station showed that the Nash-Sutcliffe model (NSE) had an efficiency of 0.8 and 0.76, respectively, while at the Shirghah station, the same values were 0.84 and 0.75. Findings revealed that human activities, specifically the combined impact of land use change and point source operations, had a 60% influence on the monthly average streamflow of the Talar River. They further showed that the combination of land use and harvesting played the most significant role in the basin's outflow on a monthly scale.

Rice availability and stability in Africa under future socio-economic development and climatic change

As Africa is facing multiple challenges related to food security, frameworks integrating production and availability are urgent for policymaking. Attention should be given not only to gradual socio-economic and climatic changes but also to their temporal variability. Here we present an integrated framework that allows one to assess the impacts of socio-economic development, gradual climate change and climate anomalies. We apply this framework to rice production and consumption in Africa whereby we explicitly account for the continent’s dependency on imported rice. We show that socio-economic development dictates rice availability, whereas climate change has only minor effects in the long term and is predicted not to amplify supply shocks. Still, rainfed-dominated or self-producing regions are sensitive to local climatic anomalies, while trade dominates stability in import-dependent regions. Our study suggests that facilitating agricultural development and limiting trade barriers are key in relieving future challenges to rice availability and stability.

Assessment of Runoff Components of River Flow in the Karakoram Mountains, Pakistan, during 1995–2010

Glaciers are generally believed to be subjugating by global warming but the Karakoram glaciers are reportedly maintaining their balance. Earlier studies in the Karakoram and its sub-basins have mostly addressed a short span of time and used complex models to understand the phenomenon. Thus, this study is based on a long-term trend analysis of the computed runoff components using satellite data with continuous spatial and temporal coverage incorporated into a simple degree day Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM). The trends of melt runoff components can help us understanding the future scenarios of the glaciers in the study area. The SRM was calibrated against the recorded river flows in the Hunza River Basin (HRB). Our simulations showed that runoff contribution from rain, snow, and glaciers are 14.4%, 34.2%, and 51.4%, respectively during 1995–2010. The melting during the summer has slightly increased, suggesting overall but modest glacier mass loss which consistent with a few recent studies. The annual stream flows showed a rising trend during the 1995–2010 period, while, rainfall and temperatures showed contrasting increasing/decreasing behavior in the July, August, and September months during the same period. The average decreasing temperatures (0.08 °C per annum) in July, August, and September makes it challenging and unclear to explain the reason for this rising trend of runoff but a rise in precipitation in the same months affirms the rise in basin flows. At times, the warmer rainwater over the snow and glacier surfaces also contributed to excessive melting. Moreover, the uncertainties in the recorded hydrological, meteorological, and remote sensing data due to low temporal and spatial resolution also portrayed contrasting results. Gradual climate change in the HRB can affect river flows in the near future, requiring effective water resource management to mitigate any adverse impacts. This study shows that assessment of long-term runoff components can be a good alternative to detect changes in melting glaciers with minimal field observations.

Understory epiphytic pteridophytes along altitudinal gradients on opposite slopes in the Atlantic Forest

Abstract Gradual climatic changes caused by mountains’ altitudinal variation promote alterations in the structure of ecological communities. Environmental changes are also expected according to the slope’s position in relation to the sea. In this study, we aimed to compare epiphytic pteridophyte communities along altitudinal gradients on opposite slopes in a section of the Atlantic Forest. We sampled a total of 10 sites in the montane and upper montane zones from the eastern (facing the sea) and western (facing away from the sea) slopes. A total of 1,742 individuals from 62 epiphytic species were recorded. The slopes showed similar epiphytic abundances and richness. Species richness showed a tendency to decrease with an increase in altitude on the western slope, and abundance was higher at intermediate altitudes, with no altitudinal trend in dominance. Conversely, on the eastern slope, there was no clear altitudinal pattern in richness or abundance; however, dominance increased with an increase in altitude from 1,200 to 1,800 m. Species compositions differed among altitudinal zones and between slopes. The eastern slope had lower species richness and no clear altitudinal gradient, although it was better preserved than the western one. Thus, there are differences in the community structure of epiphytic pteridophytes from the forest understory due to altitudinal variation and slope orientation, and these findings corroborate our hypotheses.

Experimentally increased snow depth affects high Arctic microarthropods inconsistently over two consecutive winters

Climate change induced alterations to winter conditions may affect decomposer organisms controlling the vast carbon stores in northern soils. Soil microarthropods are particularly abundant decomposers in Arctic ecosystems. We studied whether increased snow depth affected microarthropods, and if effects were consistent over two consecutive winters. We sampled Collembola and soil mites from a snow accumulation experiment at Svalbard in early summer and used soil microclimatic data to explore to which aspects of winter climate microarthropods are most sensitive. Community densities differed substantially between years and increased snow depth had inconsistent effects. Deeper snow hardly affected microarthropods in 2015, but decreased densities and altered relative abundances of microarthropods and Collembola species after a milder winter in 2016. Although increased snow depth increased soil temperatures by 3.2 °C throughout the snow cover periods, the best microclimatic predictors of microarthropod density changes were spring soil temperature and snowmelt day. Our study shows that extrapolation of observations of decomposer responses to altered winter climate conditions to future scenarios should be avoided when communities are only sampled on a single occasion, since effects of longer-term gradual changes in winter climate may be obscured by inter-annual weather variability and natural variability in population sizes.

Influence of climate change knowledge on selection of indigenous adaptive strategies among cash crop farmers

Climate change continues to threaten humanity’s livelihoods, particularly those dependent on agriculture. Gradual changes in climate pose a significant threat to food security and sustainable agricultural productivity around the globe. This paper sought to investigate the influence of climate change knowledge on the selection of indigenous climate change adaptive strategies. The study was conducted in Vhembe district of Limpopo province, South Africa, in 2021. Structured questionnaires were administered to 300 emerging cash crop farmers during face-to-face interviews. Descriptive statistics were used to gain insight into the farmers’ knowledge of climate change. A multinomial logistic model was used to determine the influence of climate change knowledge on the selection of indigenous adaptation strategies. The study discovered that most farmers were aware of climate change and subsequently preferred crop diversification and substitution of crops as their ideal adaptation strategies. This study recommends that adaptation to climate change should be a collaborative effort among the farming community.

Divergent responses of autumn vegetation phenology to climate extremes over northern middle and high latitudes

AbstractAimCompared with gradual climate change, extreme climatic events have more direct and dramatic impacts on vegetation growth. However, the influence of climate extremes on important phenological periods, such as the end of the growing season (EOS), remains unclear. Here, we investigate the temporal trends of EOS across different biomes and quantify the response of EOS to multiple climate extreme indices (CEIs).LocationNorthern middle and high latitudes.Time period2000–2020.Major taxa studiedPlants.MethodsThree phenology extraction methods were used to compute EOS from satellite, FLUXNET and Pan European Phenology Project PEP725 phenological datasets. Different stress states of cold, hot, dry and wet extremes were represented by 12 CEIs. Partial correlation and ridge regression analysis were used to quantify the response of EOS to climate extremes across latitudinal and biome scales.ResultsOur study showed a delayed EOS in boreal biomes, but a significantly advanced EOS in temperate biomes. The advanced EOS induced by cold stress was observed for c. 80% of the vegetated pixels. The warm‐related CEIs delayed the EOS in high latitudes, and the delayed effect weakened or even reversed with decreasing latitude. In contrast, EOS exhibited opposite response patterns to dry days and wet‐related CEIs. Overall, EOS exhibited higher sensitivity to extreme temperature in boreal biomes than in temperate biomes. Specifically, continuous drought and high heat stress induced an earlier EOS in some temperate forest biomes, whereas moderate heat stress delayed the EOS in most study biomes. In contrast, EOS was not sensitive to extreme drought in water‐restricted biomes.Main conclusionsEOS exhibited divergent responses to various climate extremes with different intensities and frequencies. Moreover, the response of EOS to extreme climate stress was dependent on the biome and latitude. These findings emphasize the importance of incorporating the divergent extreme climate effects into vegetation phenological models and Earth system models.

The Economic Effects of Long-Term Climate Change: Evidence from the Little Ice Age

Recent studies consistently find important economic effects of year-to-year weather fluctuations. I study the economic effects of long-term and gradual climate change over 250 years in the Little Ice Age (1600–1850), during which people and economies had time to adapt. Results show significant negative economic effects of long-term climate change. Temperature impacted the economy through its effect on agricultural productivity and mortality. To adapt to the Little Ice Age, economies increased trade and changed land use. I discuss the relevance of these results for understanding the impact of today’s climate change, especially in developing countries.

Increasing the resilience of ecological restoration to extreme climatic events

Extreme climatic events (ECEs) are increasing in frequency and magnitude as part of global climate change, with severe consequences for both nature and human societies. While many restoration projects account for gradual climate change, ECEs are rarely considered. Through a literature search and the use of expert opinion, we reviewed the impacts of ECEs on habitat restoration projects, and the degree to which they were resilient. ECEs had overwhelmingly negative impacts on habitat restoration, although some projects also reported positive outcomes. The severity of impact varied among and within projects. Nearly all projects that included more than one focal species, life stage or genotype, restoration method, site, habitat type, or microhabitat reported better outcomes for at least one of these project aspects. We suggest that practitioners may be able to reduce risk from future ECEs through a portfolio approach, incorporating heterogeneity into project design, including in site selection and propagule choices.

Syn‐ to post‐rift alluvial basin fill: Seismic stratigraphic analysis of Permian‐Triassic deposition in the Horda Platform, Norway

AbstractThe Permian‐Triassic alluvial rift succession in the Horda Platform area is analysed to construct a refined depositional model. The study demonstrates how subsurface continental rift successions may be stratigraphically subdivided and correlated by integrating seismic and well‐log data in concert with conceptual models. Regional unconformities mark the top and base of the Permian‐Triassic succession, which is sub‐divided into six seismic stratigraphic sequences, delineated by erosional‐ and non‐depositional surfaces. The definition of seismic stratigraphic sequences is based on seismic facies trends and Gamma Ray log signatures. Time‐thickness maps combined with geometries in cross‐section display the depocentre development. During the Permian‐Triassic, the Horda Platform experienced faulting, shaping the Caledonian pre‐rift landscape into a series of N–S trending half‐graben basins, contemporaneous to a gradual climate change from arid in the Permian to humid in the latest Triassic. The basin underwent three phases of rifting during the Late Permian‐Middle Triassic: (1) disconnected heterogeneous depocentres with strain concentrated in the west; (2) depocentres expanded northward; and (3) mature half graben development with widely distributed strain. Vertical lithological changes in mudstone/sandstone dominance reflect varying rates of accommodation and sediment supply (A/S). Systematic A/S variation reflects strong climatic fluctuations, which controlled facies patterns during both tectonic quiescence in the Middle‐Late Triassic, and during syn‐rift sedimentation. The Permian‐Triassic tectono‐sedimentary development in the Horda Platform area provides valuable lessons on the influence of faulting on depocentre development, how the interplay between tectonic and climatic forcing is expressed in subsurface continental deposits, and aid the characterisation of reservoirs.

A Subseasonal Regime Approach for Assessing Intra-annual Variability of Evapotranspiration and Application to the Upper Colorado River Basin

Evapotranspiration (ET) is strongly influenced by gradual climate change and fluctuations in meteorological conditions, such as earlier snowmelt and occurrence of droughts. While numerous studies have investigated how climate change influences the inter-annual variability of ET, very few studies focused on quantifying how subseasonal events control the intra-variability of ET. In this study, we developed the concept of subseasonal regimes, whose timing and duration are determined statistically using Hidden Markov Models (HMM) based on meteorological conditions. We tested the value of subseasonal regimes for quantitatively characterizing the variability of seasonal and subseasonal events, including the onset of snow accumulation, snowmelt, growing season, monsoon, and defoliation. We examined how ET varied as a function of the timing of these events within a year and across six watersheds in the region. Variability of annual ET across these six sites is much less significant than the variability in hydroclimate attributes at the sites. Subseasonal ET, defined as the total ET during a given subseasonal regime, provides a measure of intra-annual variability of ET. Our study suggests that snowmelt and monsoon timing influence regime transitions and duration, such as earlier snowmelt can increase springtime ET rapidly but can trigger long-lasting fore-summer drought conditions that lead to decrease subseasonal ET. Overall, our approach provides an enhanced statistically based framework for quantifying how the timing of subseasonal-event transitions influence ET variability. The improved understanding of subseasonal ET variability is important for predicting the future impact of climate change on water resources from the Upper Colorado River Basin regions.

Review on the Change Trend, Attribution Analysis, Retrieval, Simulation, and Prediction of Lake Surface Water Temperature

Lake surface water temperature (LSWT) is indicative of changes in climate and geomorphology. It has been found that LSWT has shown faster warming than air temperature in recent decades, which has greatly affected the aquatic ecosystem of lakes and even led to ecological collapse. It was mainly caused by climate warming and geomorphological changes caused by human activities. However, lakes with different properties respond differently to these changes, resulting in temporal and spatial heterogeneity in the changes of LSWT. After an extensive literature review, it was found that the research on LSWT is mainly focused on the following aspects: (1) qualitative or quantitative analysis of natural and anthropogenic factors affecting LSWT changes; (2) impacts of LSWT changes on lake ecology; (3) acquisition of LSWT data, such as retrieval based on remote sensing (RS) imagery, model-based simulation prediction; (4) study of temporal and spatial variation characteristics of LSWT long time series. Dynamically monitoring LSWT changes, predicting and quantifying the response of lakes with different properties to abrupt or gradual climate changes and changes in human activity intensity, can inform modeling of ecosystem response processes and long-term management planning of large freshwater ecosystems. Therefore, this paper provides a systematic review of LSWT from the above four aspects to provide empirical insight and methodological reference for conducting LSWT research.

Lost Norian fluvial tracks: Sedimentology and stratigraphy of the Upper Triassic coarse-grained deposits in Kamienica Śląska (Upper Silesia, southern Poland)

In the Triassic‒Jurassic boundary profiles of the Upper Silesian region, there are locally developed coarse clastic deposits, commonly known as the Połomia Gravels, Połomia Beds or “Połomia Formation’’ (informal name). Due to the lack of reliable stratigraphic tools, the chronostratigraphic position of these deposits remains one of the most controversial aspects of the Triassic‒Jurassic lithostratigraphy in the region. Sparse biostratigraphic data from the overlying and underlying deposits indicate a wide range of ages, from the Late Triassic to Early Jurassic. This paper presents the results of sedimentological, petrographical and palynological analyses of the coarse-grained deposits from the Kamienica Śląska gravel pit, which is currently one of the biggest facilities of this type in Upper Silesia. The outcrop section, with a total thickness of up to 20 m, is dominated by friable, light grey to beige and locally dark grey, large-scale planar to trough cross-stratified conglomerates and coarse-grained sandstones with subordinate thin interbeds of grey and reddish brown mudstones. Three facies associations have been distinguished, representing a main channel belt, secondary channels and floodplains subenvironments. Facies analysis points to a braided river tract with localised floodplain sediments. The grain composition of the Kamienica Śląska gravel/conglomerate is less diversified than that of the polymictic typical Połomia Beds of the Myszków area and resembles oligomictic conglomerates known from the Grabowa Formation of the Norian age and/or conglomerates of the Gorzów Beds of Rhaetian age, which also occur on the studied region. Palynological analysis of mudstone interbeds within the conglomeratic deposits shows the presence of miospores guiding and characteristic for subzone c of the Corollina meyeriana zone of the late Norian‒early Rhaetian age. The appearance of the coarse-grained deposits in late Norian could be associated with the development of a long-reach braided fluvial tract, draining the S and SE part of the Sudetian-Malopolska-Lublin land (S-M-L land) in response to the tectonic rearrangement in the source area and gradual climatic change from semi-arid to humid in the Rhaetian.

Combined control of multiple extreme climate stressors on autumn vegetation phenology on the Tibetan Plateau under past and future climate change

Existing research on autumn vegetation phenology is limited to phenological responses to gradual climate change. Considerably less attention has been paid to extreme climate events, resulting in a substantial gap in our understanding of the climatic response mechanism of vegetation autumn phenology. Therefore, in the present study, we used Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations to explore the responses of autumn phenology to extreme climate events (e.g., frost, heat, wetness, and drought) across the Tibetan Plateau (TP) from 2000 to 2018. We found that preseason drought and high heat stress generally induced early vegetation dormancy onset date (DOD) in most regions of the TP, whereas moderate heat and rainfall delayed the DOD in the agriculture and steppe ecoregions. Overall, cold and heat stress markedly affected the DOD in most ecoregions, whereas water stress (wetness and drought) mainly influenced the DOD in the meadow and steppe ecoregions. Modeling based on partial least squares regression (PLS), which considered these extreme climate events, predicted an earlier DOD (1.9–3.1 days earlier for RCP4.5 and 12.2–14.3 days earlier for RCP8.5) at the end of this century than traditional projections. Our findings demonstrate the combined influence of multiple extreme climate stress events on autumn vegetation phenology on the TP and highlight the need to integrate extreme climate events into future vegetation phenology models.

Threatened Mangroves in the Anthropocene: Habitat Fragmentation in Urban Coastalscapes of Pelliciera spp. (Tetrameristaceae) in Northern South America

Mangroves are fragmented habitats thriving in human-dominated coastalscapes worldwide. They provide refuge to threatened plant species, such as the NeotropicalPiñueloMangrove (formerly the monotypicPellicieragenus, recently split into two species:P. rhizophoraeandP. benthamii). However, little is known about the relationship between urbanization and the spatial configuration of mangrove habitat and how it would drive ecological and evolutionary changes in the small populations ofPellicieraspp. We used open data (e.g., land cover, mangrove cover) for 107 locations ofPellicieraspp. in Colombia (extant populations) to assess coastalscape structure and urbanization. We described coastalscape composition dynamics (for 2000 and 2010) and mangrove habitat configuration along a human-domination gradient, using landscape metrics. We computed an urban index to compare urbanization intensity among the study areas along the Caribbean coast and compared coastalscape structure and mangrove spatial metrics between basins (Caribbean and Pacific). The proportion of artificial surfaces was greater in the Caribbean than in the Pacific, but no temporal difference was found. The Caribbean basin exhibited a greater Urban Index, particularly in Cartagena and Urabá. Mangrove fragmentation was also greater in the Caribbean and it was influenced by the degree of urbanization. Mangrove area and core area were smaller in the Caribbean than in the Pacific, while cohesion was significantly lower in Cartagena than in other urban areas of the Caribbean. We propose a conceptual eco-evolutionary framework for linking mangrove patch reduction and isolation to demographic variables ofPellicieraspp. Edge effects are expected to affect birth and mortality rates in small patches. Small patches and small effective populations are expected to be more sensitive to novel biotic interactions, extreme weather, and gradual climate change. Isolation will also influence both emigration and immigration rates of propagules. We propose: (1) Assessing the conservation status of the two species, (2) setting monitoring programs of their populations ofPellicieraspp. and their surrounding coastalscapes (particularly in the Caribbean, (3) declaring protected areas, in wild and urban settings, to reduce mangrove fragmentation and urbanization.

Climate change impacts on cultural heritage: A literature review

AbstractClimate change, as revealed by gradual changes in temperature, precipitation, atmospheric moisture, and wind intensity, as well as sea level rise and changes in the occurrence of extreme events, is already affecting cultural heritage sites. Accordingly, there is a rapidly increasing body of research reporting on the impacts of climatic stressors on cultural heritage and on the assessment of climate change impacts on cultural heritage assets. This review synthesizes the international literature on climate change impacts on tangible cultural heritage by developing hazard‐impact diagrams focusing on the impacts of gradual changes in climate on: (1) the cultural heritage exposed to the outside environment, (2) the interiors of historical buildings and their collections, and (3) a third diagram associated with climate change and the impacts due to sudden changes in the natural physical environment (e.g., storm surges, floods and landslides, wildfire) in addition to sea level rise, permafrost thawing, desertification and changes in the properties of the oceans. These diagrams, which depict the relationships between various stressors and their impacts on cultural heritage, will allow other researchers, stakeholders, and potentially decision makers to determine the potential impacts of climate change on a specific cultural heritage asset without a separate examination of the literature. This review thus provides the current state‐of‐the‐art on the impacts of climate change on the tangible, built heritage, that is, monuments, archeological sites, historical buildings, as well as their interiors and the collections they hold, highlights the limitations of previous research, and provides recommendations for further studies.This article is categorized under: Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change

Security implications of climate change: A decade of scientific progress

The study of security implications of climate change has developed rapidly from a nascent area of academic inquiry into an important and thriving research field that traverses epistemological and disciplinary boundaries. Here, we take stock of scientific progress by benchmarking the latest decade of empirical research against seven core research priorities collectively emphasized in 35 recent literature reviews. On the basis of this evaluation, we discuss key contributions of this special issue. Overall, we find that the research community has made important strides in specifying and evaluating plausible indirect causal pathways between climatic conditions and a wide set of conflict-related outcomes and the scope conditions that shape this relationship. Contributions to this special issue push the research frontier further along these lines. Jointly, they demonstrate significant climate impacts on social unrest in urban settings; they point to the complexity of the climate–migration–unrest link; they identify how agricultural production patterns shape conflict risk; they investigate understudied outcomes in relation to climate change, such as interstate claims and individual trust; and they discuss the relevance of this research for user groups across academia and beyond. We find that the long-term implications of gradual climate change and conflict potential of policy responses are important remaining research gaps that should guide future research.

Climate change and development in South Africa: the impact of rising temperatures on economic productivity and labour availability

ABSTRACT Climate change has a major impact on productivity of different economic sectors as well as different labour groups. Here we study the crucial linkage between gradual climate change and availability of low-skilled labour in rural areas of South Africa. Using a nationally representative panel of micro-survey data, we derive marginal impacts of rising temperatures on labour availability. Our econometric findings suggest that optimal conditions maximizing weekly labour supply are heterogeneous across sectors. We develop an analytical model of overlapping generations to study the long-term impacts of future climate and socioeconomic changes on labour supply and welfare. Overall, high exposure of low-skilled labour to climate change and rising temperatures reduces the supply of low-skilled labour which in turn, reduces the wage gap between high-skilled and low-skilled labour. However, the overall impact of climate change on economy remains negative and the welfare in terms of output per adult drops by 20% compared to the baseline case with no climate change.