Government Counterterrorism Research Articles

How does a focusing event shape public opinion? Natural experimental evidence from the Orlando mass shooting

AbstractPolicy process theories posit that focusing events can trigger significant shifts in public attention and policy preferences, thereby reshaping public agenda setting. Prior studies, however, have not clearly defined the scope of public opinion changes induced by these focusing events, leading to inconsistent empirical findings. This study aims to reconceptualize the multiple layers of public opinion and formulate testable hypotheses to investigate the causal effects of a major focusing event—the 2016 Orlando nightclub mass shooting—on public opinion. Using original and unique survey data collected immediately pre‐ and post‐Orlando shooting, we find that this event significantly heightened public attention to terror‐related issues, particularly armed terror attacks on civilians. This increased attention translated into heightened support for augmented government counterterrorism spending. However, the event did not significantly alter public attention or support for government spending on other terror‐related acts less relevant to the Orlando shooting. Moreover, the event did not change individuals' policy preferences regarding specific policy proposals to address mass shootings. Our study enriches public policy and public opinion research and provides fresh insights into the relationship between focusing events and public agenda setting.

The Interface between Human Rights and Terrorism: Towards Achieving an Effective Counter-Terrorism Regime

Terrorism has become an emerging challenge to human rights protections today. Although terrorism has been present throughout modern history, international concern against it has become more visible since September 11, 2001. The international community has adopted various instruments on counterterrorism, provisions of which have been incorporated into the domestic laws of different countries. These instruments representing the current counterterrorism regime prioritise national security over other issues including human rights. Therefore, while employing counterterrorism measures states often tend to promote their security at the expense of the lives, liberties, and properties of civilians. To protect the human rights of innocent people against such actions it is crucial to adopt an effective counterterrorism regime. This article explores how states could establish such a regime. It suggests that the proposed regime should be based on the human rights framework. The principles of necessity and proportionality will provide a useful guideline in this respect. Dhaka University Law Journal, Vol. 34(2), 2024 P. 1-23

Why Americans Support Strict Counterterrorism Measures: Examining the Relationship between Concern about Terrorism and Public Support for Counterterrorism

Abstract After 9/11, contemporary debates on security often place civil liberties and security at opposite ends of the same spectrum, requiring the loss of one for the maintenance of the other. In addition, public concerns about terrorism determine or at least color public perception about government counterterrorism activities. Thus, the current study empirically examines factors influencing the public’s perception of government activities that may infringe upon individual rights, focusing on the effects of concern about terrorism. For this study we use data collected in World Value Survey (WVS) pertaining to respondents from the U.S. The results of a series of regression analysis and structural equation modeling (SEM) indicate that public concern about terrorism is positively associated with support for counterterrorism activities. Moreover, other factors including satisfaction with democracy, community membership and trust in the government are found to play an important role in explaining public support for counterterrorism activities.

Containing the ‘Suspect’ Other: Perpetuating Colonial Spaces Through a Global Counterterrorism Regime in Nairobi

ABSTRACT Global counterterrorism has deeply influenced urban arrangements in cities across the world, so too in Nairobi. After the Westgate attack in 2013, new modes of security governance have appeared and actively changed neighbourhoods in the capital. These new urban security arrangements build on and perpetuate, however, existing security dispositifs in the city rooted in British settler colonialism. This article therefore discusses how global counterterrorism structures manifest in and sustain racialised local security arrangements, investigating the role of spatiality within counterterrorism narratives. Taking the case of the postcolonial city of Nairobi, the article explores the two neighbourhoods of Karen and Eastleigh where security arrangements manifest in distinct ways, namely through safeguarding affluent communities from the ‘suspect’ Other who needs to be surveilled and policed. To that end, two historical security systems are embedded in urban space: Private security guarding in Karen and Nyumba Kumi in Eastleigh. The authors hence critically analyse how space governs communities, shapes subjectivities and contributes to sustaining racialised violence in the postcolonial city of Nairobi.

Voluntary participation in a terror group and counterterrorism policy

A three-stage game investigates how a government's counterterrorism measures affect potential terrorists interface. In stage 1, the government chooses both proactive and defensive countermeasures, while anticipating the size and attacks of a terrorist group. After radicalized individuals choose whether to join a terrorist group in stage 2, group members then allocate their time between work and terrorism in stage 3. Based on wages and government counterterrorism, the game characterizes the extensive and intensive margins for the terrorist group's size and attacks, respectively. Comparative statics show how changes in wages or population radicalization impact the optimal mix between defensive and proactive countermeasures. Higher (lower) wages favor a larger (smaller) mix of proactive measures over defensive actions. Enhanced radicalization of potential terrorists calls for a greater reliance on defensive actions. Backlash terror attacks stemming from proactive-induced radicalization also affect the mix of counterterrorism actions.

New Zealand Counter-Terrorism Strategy For Build Positive Peace To Support National Security

This research is discusses the counter-terrorism strategies implemented by the New Zealand government following several terrorist attacks, including the Christchurch shooting (2019) and the Dunedin and Auckland stabbings (2021). Using Arthur Lyyke's strategy theory (2008), this study analyzes the means, ways, resources, and risk considerations inherent to effective counter-terrorism strategies. The study applies the counter-terrorism approach proposed by Jones & Libicki (2008), which divides counter-terrorism strategies into three categories: military deployment approach, police and intelligence approach, and policy approach. Through qualitative research with an analytical-descriptive approach, the study finds that the New Zealand government's counter-terrorism strategy comprises of two main approaches: the police and intelligence approach and the policy approach. The government's "no face no name" policy aims to deny terrorists any platform for recognition, while amendments to firearm possession laws and counter-terrorism legislation proposed by the prime minister facilitate the police's ability to restrict terrorist activities. These initiatives intend to foster positive peace and support national security.

National Submissions to the UN Counter-Terrorism Committee as Constructions of National Identity: Cameroon, Kenya and Nigeria

ABSTRACT This article examines the construction of national identity in the context of the post-9/11 counter-terrorism sanctions regime established by United Nations Security Council Resolution 1373. The study focuses on the written reports of three member states – Cameroon, Kenya, and Nigeria – arguing that these documents not only serve as inventories of national capacity but also as performances of national identity within a specific historical moment. Two overarching arguments are made. First, constructions of terrorism play a crucial discursive role in demarcating self from other in these reports, consistently portraying terrorism as an external and morally reprehensible threat to national security. Second, despite this relatively consistent framing of terrorist otherness, the reports contain creative and diverse reflections on, or articulations of, national identity and its associated characteristics. In making these arguments, the article contributes to existing literature on the post-9/11 UN counter-terrorism regime by offering an original reading of national submissions to the UN Counter-Terrorism Committee, focusing on relatively neglected states from the global South, and develops new conceptual insight into the plasticity of terrorism as a form of discursive otherness capable of sustaining diverse representations of national self-identity

Upaya Pemerintah Malaysia Menanggulangi Masalah Terorisme

This paper aims to explain the counter-terrorism efforts carried out by the Malaysian government. As is well known, Southeast Asia is a region which is the basis for the development of radical groups that lead to acts of terrorism. Malaysia is one of the countries in Southeast Asia that has experienced various acts of terrorism in line with the development of radical groups in the country. There are around 13 (thirteen) radical groups developing in Malaysia. Indeed this is a threat to security and defense. So that the Malaysian government seeks to overcome various acts of terrorism. By using qualitative methods and the concept of deradicalization, this study found that the Malaysian government's counterterrorism efforts were carried out through the implementation of deradicalization programs and cooperation with countries in the Southeast Asian region.

Middle Point, End of the Road or Just the Beginning? Anticorruption Efforts, Failures and Promises at the United Nations

Although first noted discussions at the United Nations (UN) level about corruption are reaching their 50th anniversary, the core of the UN activity against corruption has taken place in the last quarter of a century. The 2021 special debate at the UN General Assembly was an opportunity for the institution to pause and reflect about its role over this period in the international fight against corruption. It also presented a (partially missed) opportunity for the UN to renew its commitment and reconsider its approach for the next 25 years. This article provides first an overview of the UN activity against corruption, which relies on two main pillars. On the one hand, the well-known United Nations Convention Against Corruption (UNCAC) in force since 2005, which has received remarkable academic attention and is an example of success in terms of ratifications. On the other hand, the insertion in Sustainable Development Goal 16 of an anticorruption objective (16.5) and its related indicators, which is not as widely acknowledged by anticorruption activists and scholars but serves as a recognition of the importance of tackling corruption in the development context. The article offers a historical contextualisation of both initiatives, analyses this dual approach and explores the impact of these initiatives in the global and domestic contexts. Based on previous research from the author, it highlights their joint value as a true global statement against corruption and an authoritative recognition of its damaging effects and their importance for peace, security, development, human rights and human wellbeing. The article presents, nevertheless, a critical analysis showing their shortcomings and the lack of a real effect of these instruments in overcoming or at least reducing corruption and kleptocracy at the international level. It proposes three different avenues within the UN mandate and fields of action that could guide newer initiatives. First, it explores the possibility of individual (non-criminal) ‘smart’ sanctions, modelled on the counter-terrorism regime driven by national governments, but assisted by United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). Second, the article considers how the economic and trade dimension of the UN, especially at the regional economic commissions level, could be reinvigorated with a mandate to tackle corruption through economic instruments. Third, it analyses how an optional protocol to the UNCAC could give more ‘teeth’ to the Convention. The general conclusion is that the UN, within its existing powers, has significant potential to take anticorruption initiatives a step further as the current ones have almost exhausted their shelf life.

Growth and Fiscal Effects of Insecurity on the Nigerian Economy.

In spite of government counter-terrorism expenditure and efforts, the prevalence of insecurity in Nigeria appears to be rising and fast evolving into an existential crisis that is shaking the foundation of its nationhood. The current study used annual time-series data from 1980 to 2019 and the ARDL methodology to analyse the fiscal and socio-economic consequences of insecurity on economic growth in Nigeria. The empirical findings demonstrated that high unemployment rate, domestic capital formation, foreign direct investment, government spending on education and security are negatively affected by the growing level of insecurity and consequently retarded growth in the long and short run. Conversely, improved health services, equitable income distribution and productive use of public borrowing were positively correlated with security and, therefore, stimulated growth in the long and short run. Government revenue and inflation rate accelerated growth in the long run whereas their short-run effect was deleterious. The findings suggest that good governance, provision of a safe and secured environment for human capital development and businesses, improved access to social and economic services will curb violent tendencies, create jobs, reduce poverty, increase government revenue and engender long-term inclusive growth.

The African Union’s Policy Frameworks, Institutional Mechanisms and Challenges in Countering Terrorism in Africa

ABSTRACT This article discusses the normative framework and institutional mechanisms for African counterterrorism cooperation. These frameworks have been discussed in sequential order showing how they relate to and complement each other in their efforts to counter terrorism in Africa. The first section focuses on the evolution of the counterterrorism agenda in Africa from 1992 to 1994. The second part discusses the main African Union (AU) counterterrorism legislative framework whereas the third section discusses the institutional mechanisms provided by the 2004 Protocol for the implementation of the provisions of the OAU Convention. Finally, the article discusses the challenges of the AU counterterrorism regime and concludes that the implementation of the AU counterterrorism framework is counterproductive.

Silver Lining? The Effects of Epidemics on Terrorist Groups

ABSTRACT In this study we examine the effects of epidemics on terrorist groups’ attack capacities. We consider two theoretical relationships between epidemics and terrorist groups. By weakening government counterterrorism defenses and increasing popular grievances, epidemics can provide a strategic environment that is conducive to terrorist groups, enhancing their capacity to commit more attacks, yield higher casualties and launch more logistically complex attacks. Conversely, epidemics can impair the abilities of terrorist groups to launch attacks by eroding group capacity and access to resources while incentivizing the state to increase its surveillance and policing capabilities. We test these two competing arguments using a database of over 620 terrorist groups for the period of 1970 to 2016. Our findings support the second argument. Terrorist groups based or operating in countries experiencing more and more intense epidemics commit fewer attacks, generally produce fewer casualties, commit a lower ratio of transnational to domestic attacks and less frequently use multi-mode attacks. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of these findings.

Effect of Terrorism on the Performance of Tourism Industry. A Critical Literature Review

Purpose: Global Tourism destinations provide different products which satisfy tourists with different interests, needs and wants. The general objective of the study was to examine effect of terrorism on the performance of tourism industry.
 Methodology: The paper used a desk study review methodology where relevant empirical literature was reviewed to identify main themes and to extract knowledge gaps.
 Findings: The study concludes relevant governments should face the fact that terrorist attacks provoke a substitution effect on destination choice behaviors. Tourists will replace destinations considered unsafe due to terrorist threats with others considered safer. The physical distance of the tourists' home countries and their cultural and socio-economic traits influence this replacement behavior. Given the randomness of terrorist attacks, relevant governments should be prepared to alter quickly their marketing strategy, namely their market targeting strategies and promotion campaigns to prevent substitution effect and lack low returns from the tourism industry
 Recommendations: The study recommends that relevant governments in dealing with the root causes of terrorism should also denounce the terrorists considering their acts as criminal acts just like others. The tourism stakeholders should increase efficiency in law enforcement, prosecution of terrorist suspects, by improving intelligence gathering and the police should be effectively trained to deal with terrorism incidences. The covert nature of terrorism often precludes an easy analysis of their capabilities or intent, therefore, giving them an advantage of lying in wait and striking when least expected; thus, the government counterterrorism should be proactive

Terrorism, Human Capital Development and Economic growth in Nigeria

Terrorism in Nigeria is on the increase despite government counter-terrorism efforts and expenditure. This paper examines the impact of terrorism on economic growth and human capital development in Nigeria from 1981 – 2019. The Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator was employed in analyzing the data. A negative and insignificant impact of terrorism on economic growth and human capital development was found. Internal and external conflict also had a negative and insignificant impact on economic growth and human capital development. Government expenditure as well had a negative and insignificant impact on economic growth and human capital development. Domestic investment had a positive and significant impact on economic growth, while its impact on human capital development was positive but insignificant. We, therefore, recommend establishing a bank of security to directly fund security in Nigeria. This can contribute to remedying the terrorism situation. Also, establishing a bank of security can serve as a channel where armed forces and other security personnel who died in service to the nation can be compensated. This will encourage the armed forces in the battle against terrorism.

Terrorism, Public Law and International Law: Congruence of Nigeria’s Domestic Legislation with the International Counter-Terrorism Regime

Terrorism, Public Law and International Law: Congruence of Nigeria’s Domestic Legislation with the International Counter-Terrorism Regime

In Defence of the Homeland

Terrorism is perhaps the greatest global security challenge post-World War II and, like several countries, Nigeria is also grappling with this scourge. The remarkable thing is that following pressure from the United States (US) and Western nations, Nigeria took a major step towards counterterrorism with the enactment of the Terrorism (Prevention) Act, 2011. The Act was later replaced by the Terrorism Prevention (Amendment) Act, 2013. Certainly, so far, this legislation remains the nation’s boldest effort in combatting terrorism. However, the Nigerian counterterrorism legal regime still falls short in some material respect, given the absence of a robust strategy and complementary institutional support system. This is not the same case in a country such as the US, where the principal counterterrorism legislation, the Patriot Act, is well complemented by the US National Counterterrorism Strategy and the Department of Homeland Security.
 Against this background, this Article examines the legal regime governing counterterrorism in Nigeria and the US, with the view of highlighting areas where Nigeria could gain useful insights from the US experience. The expectation is that given the robustness of the US counterterrorism regime, the experience to be gained cannot but further enrich the existing counterterrorism legal regime in Nigeria.

THE LIMITS OF LIBERAL INCLUSIVITY: HOW DEFINING ISLAMOPHOBIA NORMALIZES ANTI-MUSLIM RACISM

AbstractResponding to recent calls made within the UK Parliament for a government-backed definition of Islamophobia, this article considers the unanticipated consequences of such proposals. I argue that, considered in the context of related efforts to regulate hate speech, the formulation and implementation of a government-sponsored definition will generate unforeseen harms for the Muslim community. To the extent that such a definition will fail to address the government's role in propagating Islamophobia through ill-considered legislation that conflates Islamist discourse with hate speech, the concept of a government-backed definition of Islamophobia appears hypocritical and untenable. Alongside opposing government attempts to define Islamophobia (and Islam), I argue that advocacy efforts should instead focus on disambiguating government counterterrorism initiatives from the government management of controversies within Islam. Instead of repeating the mistakes of the governmental adoption of the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA)'s definition of antisemitism by promoting a new definition of Islamophobia, we ought to learn from the errors that were made. We should resist the gratuitous securitization of Muslim communities, rather than use such definitions to normalize compliance with the surveillance state.

CATASTROPHE AND RATIONAL POLICY: CASE OF NATIONAL SECURITY

Predicting catastrophes involves heavy‐tailed distributions with no mean, eluding proactive policy as expected cost‐benefit analysis fails. We study US government counterterrorism policy, given heightened risk of terrorism. But terrorism also involves human behavior. We synthesize the behavioral and statistical aspects in an adversary‐defender game. Calibration to extensive data shows that where a Weibull distribution is the best predictor, US counterterrorism policy is rational (and optimal). Here, we estimate the adversary's unobserved variables, e.g., difficulty of an attack. We also find cases where the best predictor is a Generalized‐Pareto with no finite mean and rational policy fails. Here, we offer “work‐arounds”. (JEL H56, D81, C46)

The ligaments of counter-terrorism regime: sexual violence and the vicarious traumatisation of female non-governmental organisation workers: evidence from Nigeria

ABSTRACTThere is a dearth of studies on indirect victims of sexual violence in counter-terrorism efforts. Using Nigeria as a case study, this paper argues that global and state-level counter-terrorism policies have generally failed to account for the psychological effects of the engagement of female NGO workers in counter-terrorism operations or mitigating the effects of terrorism in conflict zones. Specifically, there has been an increase in sexual violence perpetrated by some members of the security agencies involved in counter-terrorism operations in North-eastern Nigeria. As a result, female NGO workers carry out Medicare, psychosocial counselling and advocacy for these victims. Female NGO workers become exposed to the trauma of victims of sexual violence, which affects their mental health and thus performances in counter-terrorism activities in the country. This altered their worldview on issues of safety even among secured locations or among the presence of security agents and reinforced feelings of powerlessness.

Catastrophe and Rational Policy: Case of National Security

Predicting catastrophes sometimes involves heavy-tailed distributions with no mean, eluding proactive policy since expected cost-benefit based analysis fails. We study US government counterterrorism policy, given heightened risk of terrorism. However, terrorism involves human behavior. We synthesize the behavioral and statistical aspects within an adversary-defender game. Calibration to extensive data shows that sometimes Weibull with its heavy tail, but finite mean, fits best and rational policy is feasible. Here, we find US counterterrorism expenditures are nearly optimal and then estimate terrorists’ unobserved parameters, e.g. difficulty to attack. Other times Generalized-Pareto, with no mean, fits best and rational policy fails. Here, we offer practical “work-around”.