Good Luck Research Articles

Going the Distance: Eurasian Trade and the Rise of the Business Corporation 1400–1700; Family Firms and Merchant Capitalism in Early Modern Europe: The Business, Bankruptcy and Resilience of the Höchstetters of Augsburg

Going the Distance: Eurasian Trade and the Rise of the Business Corporation 1400–1700; Family Firms and Merchant Capitalism in Early Modern Europe: The Business, Bankruptcy and Resilience of the Höchstetters of Augsburg

Autocratic Legalism In New Turkey

Autocratic Legalism In New Turkey Ayşe Kadıoğlu (bio) In the dark timesWill there also be singing?Yes, there will also be singingAbout the dark times —Bertolt Brecht ([1936–38] 1976, 320) the colossal building we entered made us feel like insignificant specks. We began to follow the signs on the walls towards our destination. Suddenly I heard the familiar voice of a young colleague: "Hello, Professor, it is so good to see you here. Do you need any directions?" Without waiting for my reply, she continued: "Some of our colleagues are waiting downstairs. Another group from our university is on the fifth floor. We can hear their session in half an hour. Would you like to go up there?" Soon we were up on the fifth floor and surrounded by colleagues, some shaking hands, some hugging. I looked down the enormous atrium at the center of the building and spotted several familiar faces of colleagues on different floors walking hastily in different directions. There were women and men in gowns accompanying them. My young colleague said, "This session seems delayed. I am afraid I will miss it since I will have to go to my own session soon. I hope all goes well." She smiled reservedly. I could see the clouds of worry in her eyes when she spoke. She seemed anxious when she said, "If we ever get to that point, I prepared to give a defense for 10 minutes." "Good luck," I said while looking firmly into her eyes, gesturing my confidence and pride in her. The worry in her eyes disappeared momentarily. She put her head up and walked away. [End Page 445] This could have been a scene at an interdisciplinary annual academic convention. We could have been scholars walking to our panel sessions on different floors and in rooms of a large hotel chosen as the convention venue. My young colleague could have been anxious about the paper she was about to deliver in a panel. But, no, we were not at an annual academic convention. We were at the grotesque Palace of Justice in Istanbul, which was filled with academics awaiting their hearings in different criminal courts. Some were there for their own trials; others joined them in displays of solidarity for colleagues and friends. It was October 2018. Although authoritarian practices had already begun, the coup attempt on July 15, 2016, and the ensuing declaration of a state of emergency had led to a major crackdown on fundamental rights and freedoms in Turkey. The morning after the coup attempt, while still not knowing how it would end, I called it "Turkey's Reichstag Fire" and argued that "whether the coup was successful or not, one thing was certain: there would no longer be room in Turkey for people who can listen, read, analyze, and think critically" (Kadıoğlu 2016). About 6000 academics were purged from their positions in the aftermath of the failed coup attempt (Kadıoğlu 2018). Among them were the Academics for Peace, 1128 scholars from 89 different universities (Başer, Akgönül, and Öztürk 2017) who had signed a petition in January 2016 calling for the peaceful resolution of the conflict and an end to the ongoing atrocities against Kurdish citizens in the southeastern provinces of Turkey, declaring, "We will not be a party to this crime." Academics for Peace signatories were already being harassed, purged from their universities, and detained with charges of terrorism prior to the failed coup attempt. Immediately after the emergence of the petition in media outlets, in a speech he gave at the ambassadors conference, Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, labeled the Academics for Peace "degenerate impersonators of intellectuals" (aydın müsveddeleri). He called them "ignorant," "dark," "colonialist," and "fifth column operators." He referred to the "treason" of these intellectuals and maintained that "their minds are foreign [End Page 446] despite the fact that their names are like ours." He called upon the responsible units in the state to take immediate action against these academics who, in his words, "eat the bread of this state yet act like its enemies" (Erdoğan 2016...

A Collection of Talismanic Bāzūbands from the Safavid and Qajar Epochs: A Descriptive and Analytical Study

No doubt, every nation had possessed a set of deeply rooted beliefs, these rendered into variant practices and traditions, establishing civilization aspects. The belief in magic, superstitions and divinations are categorized under these beliefs. Mankind had tremendously believed their ability to hurt, bring bad destiny, and on other hand, trusting their capacity to bestow protection and guarantee good luck, thus, motivated the appeal to possessing amulets and talismans. This research paper deals with ‘Bāzūbands’; a form of amulets and talismans, worn by warriors to, morally, safeguard them and ensure triumph through Qur’ānic inscriptions, invocations, besides other magical texts. The research tackles some important aspects related the Safavid and Qajar bāzūbands, like the belief in magic, its roots in the Persian culture, an etymological study for the different terms; ‘amulet’, ‘talisman’ and ‘bāzūband’, to reveal their roots and consequent development. This is followed by a preview for the Shi‘ītes’ attitude regarding amulets and talismans, and the main elements that should be exploited in fashioning them, and the influence of the Shi‘īte belief on its mounting and ornamentation. In addition, a detailed description for a special collection of talismanic ‘bāzūbands’ from world-wide museums and private collections; some of which are to be published for the first time, is enclosed. Thenceforth, a concise analysis for the described samples is incorporated.

Where have all the sawfishes gone? Perspectives on declines of these Critically Endangered species in Sri Lanka

Abstract All five species of sawfishes (family Pristidae) are amongst the most threatened marine fishes in the world, with steep population declines and local extinctions documented across their ranges. Sawfishes have featured in Sri Lankan species checklists since 1889. However, landing records are extremely rare and little information is available on their status, diversity, and recent occurrences. Interviews were conducted with 300 fishers and 10 fish traders. Only 39% of fishers (n = 118) could identify sawfishes, 37% had seen sawfishes (although half not since 1992), and only 10.7% had ever caught one. No respondents under 30 years could identify sawfishes. Older respondents (>50 years) were more likely to have caught sawfishes and reported seeing them frequently until 30 years ago, while younger respondents had only seen them at landing sites and, at most, once or twice in their life. Only 10 respondents had seen a sawfish in the last decade, suggesting that sawfishes were relatively abundant in the past but that populations have drastically declined. Of the 32 respondents who had caught sawfishes, 30 reported declining numbers and attributed it to fishing pressure. These steep declines coincide with the time of increased fishing effort, the development of the aquaculture industry, and resulting degradation of coastal habitats in the 1980–1990s. Overall, sawfishes had little cultural significance although fishers had specific names for the different species occurring here and rostra were sometimes donated to Catholic churches for ‘good luck’. Landed sawfishes were primarily sold for meat and traders appeared unaware of the high value of fins. It is likely that sawfishes are now functionally extinct as a component of coastal ecosystems in Sri Lanka. Immediate action including species‐specific legislation and critical habitat protection is urgently needed to provide remaining sawfishes and other sharks and rays with a fighting chance.

Ozone Preconditioning: Waking up the dragon

It is said that no discovery is complete until its implications have been fully realized. The identification of a previously unrecognized phenomenon says little of its potential effects. What appears as a stroke of good luck can culminate in disaster; misfortune may harbor unimagined potential. Discovery is a double-edged sword that manifests only over time. Nowhere is this aphorism more applicable than in contemporary medical science.

Good policy or good luck? Analyzing the effects of fiscal policy and oil revenue shocks in Ecuador

This paper proposes a framework to estimate the effects of exogenous fiscal policy and oil revenue shocks on the macroeconomic activity of price-taking oil producers. We use a structural vector autoregressive model estimated with Bayesian methods and apply it to the Ecuadorian economy. Specifically, we investigate the effects of unanticipated changes in taxes, government consumption spending, government investment spending, and oil revenues on economic activity. The results show that unanticipated expansive fiscal policy either through taxes or government investment can have positive effects on output. However, contrary to most studies in the literature, consumption spending shocks do not significantly affect gross domestic product. We also find that oil revenue shocks influence all the variables in the model, evidencing the vulnerability of the Ecuadorian economy to fluctuations of oil revenues. Historically, oil revenue shocks have been the most important driving force to move output above or below trend.

Financial Analysis and Investment Using Language Programming C++.

C++ is very useful language programming in modeling investment exercises, financial derivatives and their related Greeks symbols. The book covers BA and BS, MA and MS in Risk Management, Business Administration, Financial Services, International Business and Financial Derivatives and BS in Computational Finance. Most importantly, the book includes a range of materials to help the student, the practitioners and the investors to reinforce their learning skills. Each section offers a solid explanation of basic concepts, followed by examples for the reader to work through. The market will be very responsive for our book especially that a lot of international students experience problem with their English and their numerical skills. It will cover the basic needs of postgraduate students and those who are interesting in investment. The market in the next five years will become very complicated and would require the use of sophisticated risk management techniques and technological solutions in order to hedge market, operational, and credit risk. Before starting programming, please read Chandan Sengupta (2007), Financial Modeling using C++. Wiley Finance. Good luck in your future career as derivatives and investment programmer in the major investment banks such as JP Morgan, Merrill Lunch, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America. Please e-mail me if you have any questions or if you would like to suggest investment exercises. My e-mail is guirguismichel@gmail.com Thank you for your participation.

Application of determining the price of batik using Fuzzy Tsukamoto

Competition in the world of business is something that is definite and occur in all kinds of b business. One of the ways that businesses keep running is to satisfy the customer. Batik business sales in Indonesia continues to grow, this is because one of the non-verbal culture heritage objects is Batik. But not all business people have good luck, this is because they are unable to satisfy customers. Things that make customers upset one of the types of batik is not in accordance with the price. Fuzzy Tsukamoto is one method that there is fuzzy for the determination of the decision. No exception to the price of batik. This study uses Tsukamoto fuzzy to determine the price of batik. The results of the implementation of the Tsukamoto fuzzy method in determining the price of batik in accordance with the price of fabric, the manufacturing process, batik motifs and colours. This system can also help determine the price of batik in accordance with the quality of batik.

The great moderation: updated evidence with joint tests for multiple structural changes in variance and persistence

We assess the empirical evidence about the great moderation using a comprehensive framework to test for multiple structural changes in the coefficients and in the variance of the error term of a linear regression model provided by Perron et al. (Quant Econ 11:1019–1057, 2020). We apply it to the US real GDP and its major components for the period 1960:1 to 2018:4. A notable feature of our approach is that we adopt an unobserved component model, allowing for two breaks in the trend function in 1973:1 and 2008:1, in order to obtain a stationary or cyclical component modelled as an autoregressive process. First, we confirm evidence about the great moderation, i.e., a structural change in variance of the errors in the mid-80s for the various series. Second, additional breaks in variance are found in 1970:3 for GDP and production (goods), after which the sample variance increased by three times. Hence, a part of the great moderation can be viewed as a reversion to the 1960–1970 level of volatility. Third, the evidence about systematic changes in the sum of the autoregressive coefficients (a measure of persistence) is weak over the whole sample period. Finally, we find little evidence of structural changes occurring in both the variance and the coefficients following the great recession (2007–2008). These results support views emphasizing the “good luck” hypothesis as a source of the great moderation, which continues even after the great recession.

The Application of Piano Accompaniment in Folk Music

Piano accompaniment has a history of more than one hundred years. Chinese national instrumental music has a long history and rich culture, which is an indispensable part in the history of Chinese folk music. With the development and change of modern music, Chinese folk music has entered an era of diversified development. As the "king of Musical Instruments", the combination of piano and Chinese national instrumental music was born by good luck. This paper mainly serious piano accompaniment used in folk music in the production, the status quo, so that more people understand, accept and pay attention to this new things, and even more to develop and innovation, to create more excellent works.

A Study on the Perception and Preference of the Wuxing Image Integrated into the Lucky Charm

Lucky charms are mainly derived from people's wish to bring good luck or get rid of misfortune through the power of faith. Confronted by obstacles and disappointments, modern people would turn to traditional cultural beliefs to help them get over difficulties. Consumers in Taiwan are showing growing interests in lucky charms, while manufacturers are working hard to develop various types of lucky charms to meet the diverse needs of consumers. In recent years, most of the lucky charms are based on tangible or intangible images from religions, geomantic omen, folklore, etc. Also, in response to consumers' aesthetic needs, more aesthetic elements are incorporated into the design. Besides fundamental elements of religion, geomantic omen, folklore and other beliefs, manufacturers also need to understand consumers' perception and preferences to better meet their needs. The study aimed to explore the perception and preference of consumers for Wuxing lucky charms, and analyze consumers’ preferences of the geomantic omen images. This paper collected data through literature review and questionnaire survey of 79 people based on their identity and preference to identify important factors that influence consumers' preference so as to facilitate the design of lucky charms. The study analyzed the respondents' preferences of typical Wuxing lucky charms through the questionnaire survey, and found consumers prefer traditional, refined and delicate design. Also, they like products that could bring them good luck, revealing consumers' preference for geomantic omen image. This study will help manufacturers determine the focus of design, and provide references in this regard. From the study, we found that products with explicit colors can arouse more resonance from consumers. Therefore, it is suggested that when designing the Wuxing products, we can increase the use of Wuxing colors to highlight its characteristics and charms, and better meet the needs of consumers.

Does good luck make people overconfident? Evidence from a natural experiment in the stock market

This paper examines the changes in investors' trading behavior after winning an IPO allotment in China—a purely luck-driven event. We find that these investors subsequently become overconfident: They trade more frequently and lose more money relative to other investors. This effect is stronger when investors are inexperienced and when investors' pre-existing level of overconfidence is low. We also show that investors exhibit a stronger gambling propensity and hold more lottery-like stock after winning an IPO allotment. Our findings are not explained by wealth effects or house money effects. Overall, our evidence indicates that the experience of good luck makes people overconfident about their prospects.

The Disaggregation of, and Asymmetry in, CEO Pay-for-Luck

Early work documents a sensitivity of CEO compensation contracts to economic factors beyond the control of the CEO, where CEO incentive payouts are increasing in performance attributable to good luck and decreasing in bad luck (referred to as “pay-for-luck”). Using established measures of luck, we confirm findings in more recent studies that finds no evidence of asymmetry in CEO pay-for-luck, where rewards for good luck are larger in magnitude than penalties for bad luck. When we employ an innovative method of disaggregating profitability drawn from the forecasting literature to disaggregate luck into orthogonal market and industry components, however, we find strong evidence of an asymmetry in CEO pay-for-luck, specifically related to luck around industry profitability. We investigate settings in which firms are more likely to try to retain incumbent CEOs and document pay-for-luck asymmetry only in profit-making firms. We also document pronounced pay-for-luck asymmetry in settings of (1) declining market and industry components of profitability, and growth rates, and (2) an increasing skill component of profitability, and growth in skill. Taken together, the cross-sectional findings support the prediction that evidence of CEO pay-for-luck asymmetry is motivated by CEO retention rather than CEO rent extraction.

Listening to Bats: Namibian Pastoralists' Perspectives, Stories, and Experiences

While relatively little is known about bats across much of Africa, globally, many bat populations are in decline due to human activities. Successful bat conservation efforts, therefore, depend on both ecological studies and research on human-bat relationships. To address these knowledge gaps about African bats and their interactions with humans, we used semi-structured interviews of pastoralists in northwestern Namibia to assess local experiences with, attitudes toward, and cultural stories about bats. Our research was conducted in conjunction with an ecological study on Namib Desert bat distributions, thus allowing for a broader understanding of the social-ecological dynamics of human-bat interactions in this region. Though only 65% of interviews were able to correctly identify bats from photographs, 100% classified these species as bats when provided with an additional description of “animals that fly at night.” A majority (77%) of interviews expressed positive attitudes toward bats and over a third (38%) provided cultural stories, offering detailed reports of myths and common meanings assigned to bats. Of those stories, 12% indicated that bats brought good luck or good rains, and 84% specified that bats represented bad luck or omens of injuries, death, disease, or lack of rains. While the primary threats of habitat loss and bushmeat hunting were never mentioned in our interviews, the influence of negative cultural stories on individual behavior could pose challenges for future bat conservation initiatives. This qualitative approach combined with ecological research may be valuable for assessing cross-cultural relationships between humans and understudied wildlife in other remote areas.

The Need for Oratory Skills in the Digital Age. A Phenomenological Approach to Teaching Speech Today

Personal skills in rhetoric and face-to-face communication are not outdated by the development of modern media—on the contrary, the potential power of the efficient speaker is as evident today as it was in ancient Greece or Rome, be it a student at an oral exam, an applicant at a job interview or an upcoming politician on social media. Becoming a good speaker is not just a matter of good luck and talent; it can be taught and developed. The article presents a phenomenological approach to understanding and developing competence in live rhetorical performance, and highlights the didactic benefits of a collaborative, corporeal, and visually oriented perspective on speech and oratory in the digital age.

Rukun Iman dalam Pembelajaran Aqidah Akhlak

Faith is one of the important points that must be attached to every Muslim, it is not enough for a person to be only Islam but there is no faith attached to him. Faith is meant to believe in the existence of Allah SWT, angels, messengers, books, the last day and good luck and bad luck. Good in heart, word and deed. Regarding faith in Allah, it is not strange that as Muslims we are required to be able to learn and understand what faith in Allah means. In writing this paper, we will try to describe the meaning of faith in Allah, as well as how the omniscience of Allah that we have always believed is the nature of Allah SWT. I think it is not enough just a lip statement about the oneness or attributes of Allah.

Trade in African Grey Parrots for Belief-Based Use: Insights From West Africa's Largest Traditional Medicine Market

Over 1.2 million wild-sourced African Grey parrots (Psittacus erithacus) have reportedly been traded internationally since the 1970s, the majority of which were taken from the wild with serious implications for conservation, animal welfare, and biosecurity. While international trade has mostly been for the pet trade, in some West African countries, Grey parrots are also consumed for belief-based use. However, to date there has been little research into the scale and scope of this trade and its drivers. Here, we explore multiple facets of the trade in Grey parrots for belief-based use through interviews with five vendors at the largest “fetish” market of West Africa in Togo. We focus on understanding the purpose of medicinal and spiritual use of Grey parrots, and the socio-economic dimensions of this trade. Parrot heads were the most valuable and most frequently traded body part over the last year (2017), sold primarily for the medicinal purpose of helping to “improve memory.” Feathers were the most common transaction for spiritual use, largely purchased for “attracting clients”, “love”, and to “help with divorce”. Whole parrots and parrot heads had also been traded for spiritual use, mainly for “good luck” and “protection from witchcraft”. Our findings suggest ~900 Grey parrots were traded over the past 10 years in the market. Most vendors perceived an increase in the rarity of Grey parrot body parts over the past 5 years, which may reflect increased restrictions on international trade and/or the deteriorating state of wild populations. Although the sale of feathers collected from beneath roosting sites does not negatively impact wild populations, the relatively low value of these parts compared with other parrot derivatives and live parrots, suggests there may be minimal opportunity to leverage market mechanisms to protect wild populations through sustainable use. We identify a need for further investigations to examine the complex relationship between capture to supply the international pet market, a process in which many parrots die, and the local trade in belief-based use of derivatives.

The impact of inflation targeting: Testing the good luck hypothesis

AbstractStarting in the mid‐1980s, the level and volatility of inflation decreased across industrial countries. The inflation stabilization can be explained by a shift in monetary policy or by a lucky period of low volatility in business cycle shocks. To test the “good luck hypothesis,” we examine the inflation experience of Canada, one of the earliest and most successful adopters of an inflation targeting monetary policy. We Kalman‐filter the historical structural shocks consistent with an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the Canadian economy. The estimated shocks are used to build counterfactual histories. The good luck hypothesis can explain only a minor portion of the change in the path and volatility of inflation after the shift in policy. Most of inflation and output stabilization is accounted by the impact on expectations. Unconditionally, the inflation targeting policy does not improve on the previous policy in terms of inflation volatility, but supports a more favourable trade‐off, reducing substantially output volatility.

Academic paediatric surgery – Why not?…

This article offers a brief overview of academic pediatric surgery in its broadest perspective(s). These include the challenge of the surgeons’ journey in the pursuit of becoming an academic surgeon and acquiring excellence in clinical pediatric surgery to become university faculty leaders. The marriage of these demanding roles serving “two masters” notably clinical hospital services and academic institution(s) requires ‘life skills' training coupled with buckets of resilience. It could be argued an academic pediatric surgical career is not for the ‘faint hearted'. Success is rewarded by personal growth and inspiring those around us every day. Witnessing the birth of new academic pediatric surgeons we are privileged to train is very special. Scientific Discovery and research (clinical and / or basic sciences) are worthy vocational pursuits for surgeons. Good luck on your journey! ….

Good Luck and Bad Luck alternate Like the Strands of a Rope

Good Luck and Bad Luck alternate Like the Strands of a Rope