Golden Rule Of Public Finance Research Articles

Public investment as a growth driver for a commodity-exporting economy: Sizing up the fiscal-monetary involvement

<abstract> <p>The study presents a solution to maximize public investment as a growth driver for commodity-exporting economies. The solution is to compensate for the low efficiency of public investment by drawing on internal and external factors within an active fiscal and monetary policy framework. For this, the paper introduces a quantitative model that implements a golden rule of public finance in a resource boom backed by a sovereign wealth fund under an active monetary policy stance. The modeling results show that mobilizing windfall resource revenues to finance increased public investment can limit a crowding-out effect through proper resource allocation and change the sectoral structure in favor of the final goods sector. As confirmed by the sensitivity analysis, the low efficiency of public investment can be partially offset by a less restrictive monetary policy response to fiscal dominance, but this leads to excessive volatility in financial indicators. However, if the public debt burden is an issue due to a more robust fiscal dominance regime, a higher tax rate on exported raw materials can be used to maintain sustainability. By developing a policy goals domain, the paper initiates a discussion that can direct policy recommendations toward a promising growth path by maximizing the public investment driver in the complex policy environment of fiscal-monetary interaction.</p> </abstract>

INTERNAL IMBALANCES AND GROWTH IN UKRAINE IN THE VIEW OF FISCAL AND MONETARY ISSUES

Introduction. The frequent crises are a vital impediment to growth in Ukraine. One of the reasons is the accumulated imbalances, which objectively arise if ignoring the economic fundamentals in economic policy implementation. The purpose of the article is to study internal imbalances in Ukraine to determine the causes and consequences of economic slack given fiscal and monetary issues. Results. A critical observation of the Quantity Theory of Money approach in the balance between aggregate demand and supply made it possible to reconstruct the Ukrainian economy’s circular motion for the last ten years. The generation of the coincident and leading composite indices confirmed a difference to be at play between aggregate supply and demand. The parametric Early Warning System modeling results showed that an additional percentage of imbalances between aggregate demand and supply increased the likelihood of crises in Ukraine by 4%. The severe influence of the debt factor on macroeconomic dynamics made it possible to build up a quarterly econometric model by retranslating the exponential trend of the domestic public debt accumulation on GDP motion. The developed Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model made it possible to reconstruct the economy’s prospect to move sustainable growth path, subject to implementing the golden rule of public finance. The fiscal multiplier effect offset the short-run crowding-out effect resulting from debt accumulation for financing public investment in favor of increased production in the long term. The significant parameter in this scenario is public investments efficiency, the increased level of which has to be one of the goals of the economic policy implementation. Conclusions. Fiscal-monetary interaction is crucial for counteracting macroeconomic imbalances and activating economic dynamics. Given the rise in public debt in Ukraine due to the Covid-19 pandemic, borrowing should be cautious while performing the fiscal investment expansion to stimulate growth.

Modeling the impact of public debt on economic growth in Ukraine

The study considers modeling approaches to determine the relationship between the level of public debt and economic growth. Empirical evidence for the positive, neutral, and negative correlation between the indicators arrive in a nonlinear function in the form of inverted U-curve, whose theoretical argumentation is associated with the implementation of the golden rule of public finance. To verify the empirical evidence on the example of Ukraine's economy, the author provides a scenario assessment based on the constructed econometric model of fiscal-monetary interaction. The results of modeling confirm the existence of a relationship that corresponds to a second-order polynomial trend. The maximum level of public debt, above which the GDP rate declines, is 63.8%, and the critical level of public debt, at which the rate of economic growth changes to negative, is 87.4%. As the development of Ukraine's economy is approaching the upper limit of the determined functional entry, to accelerate growth, it is necessary to focus the limited resource of public debt to finance large-scale infrastructure projects with a high capital return.

Моделювання впливу державного боргу на економічне зростання в Україні

The study considers modeling approaches to determine the relationship between the level of public debt and economic growth. Empirical evidence for the positive, neutral, and negative correlation between the indicators arrive in a nonlinear function in the form of inverted U-curve, whose theoretical argumentation is associated with the implementation of the golden rule of public finance. To verify the empirical evidence on the example of Ukraine’s economy, the author provides a scenario assessment based on the constructed econometric model of fiscal-monetary interaction. The results of modeling confirm the existence of a relationship that corresponds to a second-order polynomial trend. The maximum level of public debt, above which the GDP rate declines, is 63.8%, and the critical level of public debt, at which the rate of economic growth changes to negative, is 87.4%. As the development of Ukraine’s economy is approaching the upper limit of the determined functional entry, to accelerate growth, it is necessary to focus the limited resource of public debt to finance large-scale infrastructure projects with a high capital return.

The golden rule of public finance under active monetary stance: endogenous setting for a developing economy

The paper aims to verify the introduction of the golden rule of public finance under an active monetary stance for a developing economy using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Besides the two rigidities, namely the deep habit formation and Calvo-style price stickiness, the model structure incorporates real money holdings and welfare-enhancing government purchases in the utility-generating function and a modified Taylor rule. The simulation results have validated the visible crowding-out of private consumption and investment in the short run and a positive impact of the productive government spending on long-run growth, but with some important caveats. In the case of a developing economy that usually has low efficiency and high returns to public capital, the given factors prove significant in addressing the study issue. The results are robust in terms of the structure of utility-generating function, a relatively high share of liquidity-constrained households, and a degree of price stickiness. Moreover, to offset the debt accumulation as a result of increased public investment financing by persistent output growth, in the long run, the central bank should not only rely on response to the fluctuation of inflation and output but also account for a move of public debt.

Economic growth: macroeconomic effects of Public Borrowings at the global level

The study examines the peculiarities of the impact of public debt on the economic growth of states. The aim of the study was to analyze and identify the determinants of the impact of government borrowing on economic growth. The following research methods have been applied: analysis and synthesis of data and theoretical work, comparative analysis, statistical, correlation, cluster and discriminant analysis. According to the results of the survey, it is established that the growth of government borrowing can have both a negative and a positive effect on the economy, provided that it implements as the share of government debt to GDP, does not exceed 60% and is implemented in the form of financial investments (golden rule of public finance). The state’s deficit is allowed provided that state assets grow; current income from investment fully covers current expenses. The results of clusterization allowed to allocate 3 groups of states: states that demonstrated the economic downturn; states characterized by slow economic growth; states that were characterized by high level of economic growth. The first group of states (the countries with economic downturn) observed a negative high level of government debt and GDP. The results showed the low level of domestic borrowing development in low and middle income countries, which in developed countries allows governments to finance the investment projects on the basis of local loans (municipal bonds, infrastructure bonds, mainly medium and long-term), increase the debt burden in terms of economic recession.

Public investment, public debt, and population aging under the golden rule of public finance

This paper develops an overlapping generations model with debt-financed public investment. The model assumes that government is subject to the golden rule of public finance and that households are finitely lived in the sense of Yaari–Blanchard. It is shown that the growth-maximizing tax rate is not equivalent to the welfare-maximizing one; in addition, both tax rates are lower than the output elasticity of public capital. This paper also derives the threshold value of public debt to GDP ratio that maximizes the equilibrium growth rate and social welfare, i.e., the inverted-U relation between the public debt to GDP ratio and the economic growth rate suggested by empirical studies. Furthermore, this paper shows that both tax rates and the public debt to GDP ratio positively depend on longevity. This result provides a possible explanation for the rising tendency of the public debt to GDP ratio under population aging in countries such as the United Kingdom, Germany, and Japan.

An Inverted U-Shaped Relationship between Public Debt and Economic Growth under the Golden Rule of Public Finance

Empirical evidence shows an inverted U-shaped relationship between public debt-to-GDP ratio and economic growth for many advanced economies. Using a simple endogenous growth model with public debt under the Golden Rule of Public Finance (GRPF), which allows the government to issue bonds only to finance public investment, this paper explains the relationship. Although Greiner [1] explains it in the similar model, he introduces a more restrictive assumption than GRPF that the amount of public investment must be always equal to that of newly issued bonds, i.e., public investment must be financed only by newly issued bonds. This paper shows that the assumption is not needed. In other words, the inverted U-shaped relationship emerges in a more realistic case when public investment is partly financed by other sources than government bonds such as taxes.

Endogenous longevity, public debt and endogenous growth

ABSTRACTThis study explores the mechanism that causes an inverted U-shaped relationship between the public debt to GDP ratio and the economic growth rate which is observed in empirical studies. We show that this relationship is caused even when the government does not introduce the golden rule of public finance, and government health care expenditure has important role in generating this relationship.

Fiscal policy effectiveness and the golden rule of public finance

The present paper uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework with imperfect competition and nominal rigidities in order to analyze the impact of two different fiscal rules on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The first rule is called the golden rule of public finance which allows an upward shift in the share of public investment in total public spending but restricts the use of public debt for investment purposes alone. The second rule does not alter the allocation of public spending among investment and consumption but allows public consumption to be financed by public debt. The numerical results show that a fiscal expansion under the golden rule leads to a higher increase in output while maintaining a low level of public debt compared to the second rule. Moreover, the difference between the output responses under the two fiscal rules increase in the medium run implying that the benefits of a golden rule-based fiscal policy are higher especially in the medium run.

The effect of public debt on growth and welfare under the golden rule of public finance

This study analyzes an endogenous growth model with public capital and public debt under the “golden rule of public finance” which prohibits the government from issuing bonds for nonproductive purposes. We assume that public investment is fully financed by fiscal deficit in our model analyzing the effects of public debt on the economy. Our results under the fiscal rule can be summarized as follows. First, the model shows two steady states exist: one is unstable with zero growth and the other is saddle-path stable with positive growth. The economy may not converge to the stable steady state if the public capital relative to public debt is not sufficient at the initial point. Second, the model shows that the growth maximizing tax rate exceeds the welfare-maximizing tax rate in considering transitional dynamics, but the short-term effect can differ from that of a model with a balanced budget rule.

Determinants of sub-central European government debt

The aim of this paper is to analyze the determinants of sub-central government debt in Europe (Italy, France, Austria, Germany, Belgium and Spain) through estimation for each State based on corresponding panel data from 1996 to 2010. Furthermore, we estimate the debt model using a joint sample, consolidating conclusions on the most influential variables in terms of public debt. A comparative analysis of institutional frameworks in Europe shows that relationships between central and sub-central tax authorities have common traits, although the extent of change in each country remains unknown. In sum, this study shows that sub-sovereign government budgets are counter-cyclical, that economies of scale are present, which the golden rule of public finance is followed, that population growth and lower per capita financing lead to higher debt levels, and that regions characterized by higher debt/GDP ratios tend to have lower future deficits.

Public investment, the rate of return, and optimal fiscal policy in a stochastically growing economy

This study examines the optimal fiscal policy in a stochastic endogenous growth model with private and public capital. The government is willing to actualize a socially optimal equilibrium using a lump-sum tax and government debt linked to public investments, subject to the budget constraint under the golden rule of public finance. A socially optimal fiscal policy states that a deterministic rate of return on government bonds sets the marginal product of public capital. Moreover, public investments optimally adjust the ratio of private capital to public capital to equate the rates of return on such capital. The presence of stochastic disturbances results in a disparity between the optimal marginal products of the two types of capital, as reported in previous empirical studies. This disparity significantly affects the socially optimal growth rate in response to investment risk.

Has the Golden Rule of Public Finance Made a Difference in the UK?

This paper uses the SVAR methodology to investigate the effects of public investment on growth, and more specifically, the effects of the introduction of a golden rule of public finance. We extend the existing literature by estimating a model of the British economy that takes into account long run factors such as public debt accumulation. We find that in such a long run framework, public investment has a significant and permanently positive effect on GDP growth; this result runs counter to the most recent literature on the topic that was limited to a short run specification. We further find, by comparing different subsamples, that the introduction of the golden rule in 1997 strengthened the positive effect of public investment.

The European Fiscal Compact: A Counterfactual Assessment

Faced with the global financial crisis and an increasingly worrisome sovereign-debt crisis, the Eurozone countries are rethinking their fiscal governance. This paper discusses the different reforms and subsequent fiscal rules which have emerged since 2011. It assesses the impact of fiscal rules on the output gap and inflation rate of three representative countries of the Eurozone. By means of a counterfactual, the rules based upon their macroeconomic outcomes are ranked. The new debt reduction rule would certainly lead to lower debt levels, hence to larger fiscal margins for maneuver in the future but, in steep contrast with the golden rule of public finance, it would be very costly to implement as the requirement to enforce a substantial consolidation in the short run would be considerably higher than that of a golden rule and would worsen the output gap and inflation rate. The cap on the cyclically adjusted deficit also leads to unfavorable outcomes whereas the Maastricht status quo, limiting overall public deficit, would be a “second best” behind the golden rule of public finance.

The golden rule of public finance and the composition of government expenditures: a growth and welfare analysis

This paper employs an endogenous growth model to study the growth and welfare effects of the golden rule of public finance. Two versions are compared, whereby government deficits are restricted for the use of public investments. It is shown that the growth effect of the golden rule depends on what kind of expenditure is adjusted to meet debt obligations. A transition from a balanced budget to a golden rule is performed to study welfare. The results indicate that a budget rule with detrimental growth effects can still have positive welfare implications, and vice versa, if the composition of government expenditures and transitional dynamics are taken into account.

A golden rule of public finance or a fixed deficit regime?: Growth and welfare effects of budget rules

In this paper, we compare growth and welfare effects of various budget rules within an endogenous growth model with productive public capital, utility enhancing public consumption and public debt. We find that introducing a fixed deficit regime does not affect the long run growth rate compared to a balanced budget while establishing a golden rule results in higher growth. Simulations of welfare effects indicate that a golden rule leads to highest welfare followed by a balanced budget and a fixed deficit regime. A maximum fraction of deficit financed public investment is derived. Varying the intertemporal elasticity of substitution shows that economies populated by households who have a strong tendency to smooth consumption should adhere to a balanced budget from a welfare point of view.

European fiscal rules after the crisis

The main purpose of this note is to question the relevance of trying to strengthen a fiscal framework which has been ineffective over the years; doing so, we compare the SGP with a possible alternative, a golden rule of public finance. We take the classification proposed by Kopits and Symansky (1998) as a benchmark. Our assessment shows that a golden rule would be superior to the actual EU fiscal framework. A counterfactual experiment does not contradict this outcome.JEL codes: E61, H30, H60, H70

ON THE LONG‐TERM EFFECTS OF FISCAL POLICY IN THE UNITED KINGDOM: THE CASE FOR A GOLDEN RULE

ABSTRACTThis paper uses the SVAR methodology to investigate the effects of public investment on GDP and, more specifically, the effects of the introduction of a golden rule of public finance. We extend the existing literature by estimating a model for the British economy that takes into account long‐run factors such as public debt accumulation and policy interactions. We find that in such a long‐run framework, public investment has a significant and permanently positive effect on GDP; this result runs counter to the most recent literature on the topic using SVAR, which was limited to a short‐run specification. We further find, by comparing different subsamples, that the introduction of the golden rule in 1997 strengthened the positive effect of public investment.

The Political Economy of Balanced-Budget Rules

The paper provides an explanation to the adoption of balanced-budget rules by politicians, instead of golden rules. In a model that includes voters' preferences that are skewed by the history of the budget structure, and fiscal rules on the budget, we show that incumbents favor a distorted budget allocation, and use debt strategically. The inclusion of a golden rule of public finance is compared with that of a balanced-budget rule. Due to the presence of habits, we show that the conditions for the prevalence of a balanced-budget rule are easier to fulfil than those pertaining to a golden rule.