Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Research Articles

Prescribing stratospheric chemistry overestimates southern hemisphere climate change during austral spring in response to quadrupled CO2

The interaction of stratospheric chemistry with a changing climate from an abrupt CO2 quadrupling is assessed using the coupled atmosphere–ocean Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM). Two abrupt 4 × CO2 experiments were performed, one with interactive stratospheric chemistry and the other with a prescribed stratospheric chemistry that does not simulate stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2. The interactive and prescribed chemistry experiments simulate similar global mean surface temperature change. Nevertheless, interactive chemistry is critical to capture the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric midlatitude jet response to 4 × CO2. When stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2 is neglected, GEOSCCM overestimates Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation change. This stratospheric chemistry-induced climate impact has large seasonal variability. During the austral spring season September–October–November (SON), prescribed chemistry yields a stronger poleward shift and intensification of the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude tropospheric jet, surface wind stress, and the Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation than occurs with interactive chemistry. In other seasons interactive and prescribed chemistry have similar effects on the Southern Hemisphere circulation. The seasonality of stratospheric chemistry-induced climate impact is related to the seasonality of Antarctic lower stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2. In contrast to this stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2, stratospheric ozone recovery from decline of the ozone depleting substances has its largest impact on the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation in austral summer (December–January–February), but no effects in SON. It is found that the different seasonality for these two stratospheric ozone layer change scenarios is related to the different seasonality of tropopause meridional temperature gradient response.

Stratospheric water vapor feedback and its climate impacts in the coupled atmosphere–ocean Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model

The stratospheric water vapor feedbacks on climate for abrupt CO2 quadrupling are investigated with the coupled atmosphere–ocean Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate model. A feedback suppression method is used to quantify the stratospheric water vapor climate feedback parameter and the impacts of stratospheric water vapor increases on temperature and circulation. It is found that increases in stratospheric water vapor change the model’s net climate feedback parameter by 0.11 W m−2 K−1, contributing to 0.5 K, or 10%, of the global-mean surface warming under abrupt CO2 quadrupling. Stratospheric water vapor increases lead to significant impacts on stratospheric temperature and dynamics. The increases induce stratospheric dynamical changes that strongly modify stratospheric cooling patterns. About 30% of the acceleration of the stratospheric Brewer-Dobson circulation under 4 × CO2 is attributed to the stratospheric water vapor increases. In the troposphere, the stratospheric water vapor feedback plays a role in Arctic amplification and is responsible for 14% of the Arctic warming. It also affects tropospheric circulation, causing greater poleward shift of the northern hemisphere tropospheric midlatitude jet.

Impact of convectively lofted ice on the seasonal cycle of water vapor in the tropical tropopause layer

Abstract. We use a forward Lagrangian trajectory model to diagnose mechanisms that produce the water vapor seasonal cycle observed by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and reproduced by the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM) in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). We confirm in both the MLS and GEOSCCM that the seasonal cycle of water vapor entering the stratosphere is primarily determined by the seasonal cycle of TTL temperatures. However, we find that the seasonal cycle of temperature predicts a smaller seasonal cycle of TTL water vapor between 10 and 40∘ N than observed by MLS or simulated by the GEOSCCM. Our analysis of the GEOSCCM shows that including evaporation of convective ice in the trajectory model increases both the simulated maximum value of the 100 hPa 10–40∘ N water vapor seasonal cycle and the seasonal-cycle amplitude. We conclude that the moistening effect from convective ice evaporation in the TTL plays a key role in regulating and maintaining the seasonal cycle of water vapor in the TTL. Most of the convective moistening in the 10–40∘ N range comes from convective ice evaporation occurring at the same latitudes. A small contribution to the moistening comes from convective ice evaporation occurring between 10∘ S and 10∘ N. Within the 10–40∘ N band, the Asian monsoon region is the most important region for convective moistening by ice evaporation during boreal summer and autumn.

The salience of nonlinearities in the boreal winter response to ENSO: Arctic stratosphere and Europe

The Arctic stratospheric response to El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN) is evaluated in a 41 member ensemble of the period 1980 to 2009 in the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model. We consider whether the responses to EN and LN are equal in magnitude and opposite in sign, whether the responses to moderate and extreme events are proportionate, and if the response depends on whether sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTs) peak in the Eastern Pacific (EP) or Central Pacific (CP). There is no indication of any nonlinearities between EN and LN, though in ~ 15% of the ensemble members the stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) frequencies for EN and LN are similar, suggesting that a similar SSW frequency for EN and LN, as has occurred over the past ~ 60 years, can occur by chance. The response to extreme EN events is not proportionate to the amplitude of the underlying SST anomalies in spring. EP EN events preferentially increase zonal wavenumber 1 and decrease zonal wavenumber 2 as compared to CP EN events, however the zonal-mean Arctic stratospheric and subpolar surface response is generally little different between EP EN and CP EN once one accounts for the relative weakness of CP events. These differences between EP and CP events and between moderate and extreme EN events only emerge if at least 25 events are composited, however, due to the small signal-to-noise ratio, and hence these differences may be of little practical benefit.

The salience of nonlinearities in the boreal winter response to ENSO: North Pacific and North America

The prominence of nonlinearities in the response to El Niño as compared to La Niña, to moderate El Niño events as compared to extreme El Ninño events, and to different flavors of El Niño events, are analyzed using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model. In the Central North Pacific region where the sea level pressure response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) peaks, nonlinearities are relatively muted. In contrast, changes to the east of this region (i.e. the far-Northeastern Pacific) and to the north of this region (over Alaska) in response to different ENSO phases are more clearly nonlinear, and become statistically robust after more than 15 events are considered. The relative prominence of these nonlinearities is related to the zonal wavenumber of the tropical precipitation response. Associated with these nonlinearities over the far-Northeastern Pacific are nonlinearities in precipitation over Western United States and surface temperature over Northwest North America and Midwestern United States. In all regions at least 15 events of each type are necessary before nonlinearities can be identified as statistically significant at the 95% confidence level due to the presence of internal atmospheric variability. As there have only been a similar number of ENSO events to the total needed for significance since 1920, it is not surprising that it has been difficult to establish statistically significant nonlinearities using observational data.

Nonlinear response of tropical lower stratospheric temperature and water vapor to ENSO.

A series of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model are analyzed in order to assess interannual and sub-decadal variability in the tropical lower stratosphere over the past 35 years. The impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on temperature and water vapor in this region is nonlinear in boreal spring. While moderate El Niño events lead to cooling in this region, strong El Niño events lead to warming, even as the response of the large scale Brewer Dobson Circulation appears to scale nearly linearly with El Niño. This nonlinearity is shown to arise from the response in the Indo-West Pacific to El Niño: strong El Niño events lead to tropospheric warming extending into the tropical tropopause layer and up to the cold point in this region, where it allows for more water vapor to enter the stratosphere. The net effect is that both strong La Niña and strong El Niño events lead to enhanced entry water vapor and stratospheric moistening in boreal spring and early summer. These results lead to the following interpretation of the contribution of sea surface temperatures to the decline in water vapor from the late 1990s to the early 2000s: the very strong El Niño event in 1997/1998, followed by more than two consecutive years of La Niña, led to enhanced lower stratospheric water vapor. As this period ended in early 2001, entry water vapor concentrations declined. This effect accounts for approximately one-quarter of the observed drop.

Impacts of Stratospheric Sulfate Geoengineering on Global Solar Photovoltaic and Concentrating Solar Power Resource

AbstractIn recent years, the idea of geoengineering, artificially modifying the climate to reduce global temperatures, has received increasing attention because of the lack of progress in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions. Stratospheric sulfate injection (SSI) is a geoengineering method proposed to reduce planetary warming by reflecting a proportion of solar radiation back into space that would otherwise warm the surface and lower atmosphere. The authors analyze results from the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 2, Carbon Cycle Stratosphere (HadGEM2-CCS) climate model with stratospheric emissions of 10 Tg yr−1 of SO2, designed to offset global temperature rise by around 1°C. A reduction in concentrating solar power output of 5.9% on average over land is shown under SSI relative to a baseline future climate change scenario (RCP4.5) caused by a decrease in direct radiation. Solar photovoltaic energy is generally less affected as it can use diffuse radiation, which increases under SSI, at the expense of direct radiation. The results from HadGEM2-CCS are compared with the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry–Climate Model (GEOSCCM) from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP), with 5 Tg yr−1 emission of SO2. In many regions, the differences predicted in solar energy output between the SSI and RCP4.5 simulations are robust, as the sign of the changes for both HadGEM2-CCS and GEOSCCM agree. Furthermore, the sign of the total and direct annual mean radiation changes evaluated by HadGEM2-CCS agrees with the sign of the multimodel mean changes of an ensemble of GeoMIP models over the majority of the world.

The Effect of Representing Bromine from VSLS on the Simulation and Evolution of Antarctic Ozone.

We use the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM), a contributor to both the 2010 and 2014 WMO Ozone Assessment Reports, to show that inclusion of 5 parts per trillion (ppt) of stratospheric bromine (Bry) from very short-lived substances (VSLS) is responsible for about a decade delay in ozone hole recovery. These results partially explain the significantly later recovery of Antarctic ozone noted in the 2014 report, as bromine from VSLS was not included in the 2010 Assessment. We show multiple lines of evidence that simulations that account for VSLS Bry are in better agreement with both total column BrO and the seasonal evolution of Antarctic ozone reported by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on NASA's Aura satellite. In addition, the near zero ozone levels observed in the deep Antarctic lower stratospheric polar vortex are only reproduced in a simulation that includes this Bry source from VSLS.

Isolating the roles of different forcing agents in global stratospheric temperature changes using model integrations with incrementally added single forcings.

Satellite instruments show a cooling of global stratospheric temperatures over the whole data record (1979-2014). This cooling is not linear, and includes two descending steps in the early 1980s and mid-1990s. The 1979-1995 period is characterized by increasing concentrations of ozone depleting substances (ODS) and by the two major volcanic eruptions of El Chichón (1982) and Mount Pinatubo (1991). The 1995-present period is characterized by decreasing ODS concentrations and by the absence of major volcanic eruptions. Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations increase over the whole time period. In order to isolate the roles of different forcing agents in the global stratospheric temperature changes, we performed a set of AMIP-style simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM). We find that in our model simulations the cooling of the stratosphere from 1979 to present is mostly driven by changes in GHG concentrations in the middle and upper stratosphere and by GHG and ODS changes in the lower stratosphere. While the cooling trend caused by increasing GHGs is roughly constant over the satellite era, changing ODS concentrations cause a significant stratospheric cooling only up to the mid-1990s, when they start to decrease because of the implementation of the Montreal Protocol. Sporadic volcanic events and the solar cycle have a distinct signature in the time series of stratospheric temperature anomalies but do not play a statistically significant role in the long-term trends from 1979 to 2014. Several factors combine to produce the step-like behavior in the stratospheric temperatures: in the lower stratosphere, the flattening starting in the mid 1990's is due to the decrease in ozone depleting substances; Mount Pinatubo and the solar cycle cause the abrupt steps through the aerosol-associated warming and the volcanically induced ozone depletion. In the middle and upper stratosphere, changes in solar irradiance are largely responsible for the step-like behavior of global temperatures anomalies, together with volcanically induced ozone depletion and water vapor increases in the post-Pinatubo years.

Air-mass Origin in the Arctic. Part II: Response to Increases in Greenhouse Gases

Abstract Future changes in transport from Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes into the Arctic are examined using rigorously defined air-mass fractions that partition air in the Arctic according to where it last had contact with the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Boreal winter (December–February) and summer (June–August) air-mass fraction climatologies are calculated for the modeled climate of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry–Climate Model (GEOSCCM) forced with the end-of-twenty-first century greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances. The modeled projections indicate that the fraction of air in the Arctic that last contacted the PBL over NH midlatitudes (or air of “midlatitude origin”) will increase by about 10% in both winter and summer. The projected increases during winter are largest in the upper and middle Arctic troposphere, where they reflect an upward and poleward shift in the transient eddy meridional wind, a robust dynamical response among comprehensive climate models. The boreal winter response is dominated by (~5%–10%) increases in the air-mass fractions originating over the eastern Pacific and the Atlantic, while the response in boreal summer mainly reflects (~5%) increases in air of Asian and North American origin. The results herein suggest that future changes in transport from midlatitudes may impact the composition—and, hence, radiative budget—in the Arctic, independent of changes in emissions.

Airmass Origin in the Arctic. Part I: Seasonality

Abstract The first climatology of airmass origin in the Arctic is presented in terms of rigorously defined airmass fractions that partition air according to where it last contacted the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Results from a present-day climate integration of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry–Climate Model (GEOSCCM) reveal that the majority of air in the Arctic below 700 mb last contacted the PBL poleward of 60°N. By comparison, 62% (±0.8%) of the air above 700 mb originates over Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes (i.e., “midlatitude air”). Seasonal variations in the airmass fractions above 700 mb reveal that during boreal winter air from midlatitudes originates primarily over the oceans, with 26% (±1.9%) last contacting the PBL over the eastern Pacific, 21% (±0.87%) over the Atlantic, and 16% (±1.2%) over the western Pacific. During summer, by comparison, midlatitude air originates primarily over land, overwhelmingly so over Asia [41% (±1.0%)] and, to a lesser extent, over North America [24% (±1.5%)]. Seasonal variations in the airmass fractions are interpreted in terms of changes in the large-scale ventilation of the midlatitude boundary layer and the midlatitude tropospheric jet.

Net influence of an internally generated quasi-biennial oscillation on modelled stratospheric climate and chemistry

Abstract. A Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM) simulation with strong tropical non-orographic gravity wave drag (GWD) is compared to an otherwise identical simulation with near-zero tropical non-orographic GWD. The GEOSCCM generates a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) zonal wind signal in response to a tropical peak in GWD that resembles the zonal and climatological mean precipitation field. The modelled QBO has a frequency and amplitude that closely resembles observations. As expected, the modelled QBO improves the simulation of tropical zonal winds and enhances tropical and subtropical stratospheric variability. Also, inclusion of the QBO slows the meridional overturning circulation, resulting in a generally older stratospheric mean age of air. Slowing of the overturning circulation, changes in stratospheric temperature and enhanced subtropical mixing all affect the annual mean distributions of ozone, methane and nitrous oxide. Furthermore, the modelled QBO enhances polar stratospheric variability in winter. Because tropical zonal winds are easterly in the simulation without a QBO, there is a relative increase in tropical zonal winds in the simulation with a QBO. Extratropical differences between the simulations with and without a QBO thus reflect the westerly shift in tropical zonal winds: a relative strengthening of the polar stratospheric jet, polar stratospheric cooling and a weak reduction in Arctic lower stratospheric ozone.

Connections between the Spring Breakup of the Southern Hemisphere Polar Vortex, Stationary Waves, and Air–Sea Roughness

Abstract A robust connection between the drag on surface-layer winds and the stratospheric circulation is demonstrated in NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry–Climate Model (GEOSCCM). Specifically, an updated parameterization of roughness at the air–sea interface, in which surface roughness is increased for moderate wind speeds (4–20 m s−1), leads to a decrease in model biases in Southern Hemispheric ozone, polar cap temperature, stationary wave heat flux, and springtime vortex breakup. A dynamical mechanism is proposed whereby increased surface roughness leads to improved stationary waves. Increased surface roughness leads to anomalous eddy momentum flux convergence primarily in the Indian Ocean sector (where eddies are strongest climatologically) in September and October. The localization of the eddy momentum flux convergence anomaly in the Indian Ocean sector leads to a zonally asymmetric reduction in zonal wind and, by geostrophy, to a wavenumber-1 stationary wave pattern. This tropospheric stationary wave pattern leads to enhanced upward wave activity entering the stratosphere. The net effect is an improved Southern Hemisphere vortex: the vortex breaks up earlier in spring (i.e., the spring late-breakup bias is partially ameliorated) yet is no weaker in midwinter. More than half of the stratospheric biases appear to be related to the surface wind speed biases. As many other chemistry–climate models use a similar scheme for their surface-layer momentum exchange and have similar biases in the stratosphere, the authors expect that results from GEOSCCM may be relevant for other climate models.

Are the teleconnections of Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific El Niño distinct in boreal wintertime?

A meteorological reanalysis dataset and experiments of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model, Version 2 (GEOS V2 CCM) are used to study the boreal winter season teleconnections in the Pacific-North America region and in the stratosphere generated by Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific El Nino. In the reanalysis data, the sign of the North Pacific and stratospheric response to Central Pacific El Nino is sensitive to the composite size, the specific Central Pacific El Nino index used, and the month or seasonal average that is examined, highlighting the limitations of the short observational record. Long model integrations suggest that the response to the two types of El Nino are similar in both the extratropical troposphere and stratosphere. Namely, both Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific El Nino lead to a deepened North Pacific low and a weakened polar vortex, and the effects are stronger in late winter than in early winter. However, the long experiments do indicate some differences between the two types of El Nino events regarding the latitude of the North Pacific trough, the early winter polar stratospheric response, surface temperature and precipitation over North America, and globally averaged surface temperature. These differences are generally consistent with, though smaller than, those noted in previous studies.

Response of the Antarctic stratosphere to warm pool El Niño Events in the GEOS CCM

Abstract. The Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model, Version 2 (GEOS V2 CCM) is used to investigate the response of the Antarctic stratosphere to (1) warm pool El Niño (WPEN) events and (2) the sensitivity of this response to the phase of the QBO. A new formulation of the GEOS V2 CCM includes an improved general circulation model and an internally generated quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Two 50-yr time-slice simulations are forced by repeating annual cycles of sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations composited from observed WPEN and neutral ENSO (ENSON) events. In these simulations, greenhouse gas and ozone-depleting substance concentrations represent the present-day climate. The modelled responses to WPEN, and to the phase of the QBO during WPEN, are compared with NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis. WPEN events enhance poleward tropospheric planetary wave activity in the central South Pacific region during austral spring, leading to relative warming of the Antarctic lower stratosphere in November/December. During the easterly phase of the QBO (QBO-E), the GEOS V2 CCM reproduces the observed 4–5 K warming of the polar region at 50 hPa, in the WPEN simulation relative to ENSON. In the recent past, the response to WPEN events was sensitive to the phase of the QBO: the enhancement in planetary wave driving and the lower stratospheric warming signal were mainly associated with WPEN events coincident with QBO-E. In the GEOS V2 CCM, however, the Antarctic response to WPEN events is insensitive to the phase of the QBO: the modelled response is always easterly QBO-like. The QBO signal does not extend far enough into the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere to modulate convection and thus planetary wave activity in the south central Pacific.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation in Tropical and Midlatitude Column Ozone

Abstract The impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the tropical total column ozone, the tropical tropopause pressure, and the 3.5-yr ozone signal in the midlatitude total column ozone were examined using the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry–Climate Model (GEOS CCM). Observed monthly mean sea surface temperature and sea ice between 1951 and 2004 were used as boundary conditions for the model. Since the model includes no solar cycle, quasi-biennial oscillation, or volcanic forcing, the ENSO signal was found to dominate the tropical total column ozone variability. Principal component analysis was applied to the detrended, deseasonalized, and low-pass filtered model outputs. The first mode of model total column ozone captured 63.8% of the total variance. The spatial pattern of this mode was similar to that in Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) observations. There was also a clear ENSO signal in the tropical tropopause pressure in the GEOS CCM, which is related to the ENSO signal in the total column ozone. The regression coefficient between the model total column ozone and the model tropopause pressure was 0.71 Dobson units (DU) hPa−1. The GEOS CCM was also used to investigate a possible mechanism for the 3.5-yr signal observed in the midlatitude total column ozone. The 3.5-yr signal in the GEOS CCM column ozone is similar to that in the observations, which suggests that a model with realistic ENSO can reproduce the 3.5-yr signal. Hence, it is likely that the 3.5-yr signal was caused by ENSO.

The Impact of Stratospheric Ozone Changes on Downward Wave Coupling in the Southern Hemisphere*

Abstract The impact of stratospheric ozone changes on downward wave coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere in the Southern Hemisphere is investigated using a suite of Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry–climate model (GEOS CCM) simulations. Downward wave coupling occurs when planetary waves reflected in the stratosphere impact the troposphere. In reanalysis data, the climatological coupling occurs from September to December when the stratospheric basic state has a well-defined high-latitude meridional waveguide in the lower stratosphere that is bounded above by a reflecting surface, called a bounded wave geometry. Reanalysis data suggests that downward wave coupling during November–December has increased during the last three decades. The GEOS CCM simulation of the recent past captures the main features of downward wave coupling in the Southern Hemisphere. Consistent with the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) dataset, wave coupling in the model maximizes during October–November when there is a bounded wave geometry configuration. However, the wave coupling in the model is stronger than in the MERRA dataset, and starts earlier and ends later in the seasonal cycle. The late season bias is caused by a bias in the timing of the stratospheric polar vortex breakup. Temporal changes in stratospheric ozone associated with past depletion and future recovery significantly impact downward wave coupling in the model. During the period of ozone depletion, the spring bounded wave geometry, which is favorable for downward wave coupling, extends into early summer, due to a delay in the vortex breakup date, and leads to increased downward wave coupling during November–December. During the period of ozone recovery, the stratospheric basic state during November–December shifts from a spring configuration back to a summer configuration, where waves are trapped in the troposphere, and leads to a decrease in downward wave coupling. Model simulations with chlorine fixed at 1960 values and increasing greenhouse gases show no significant changes in downward wave coupling and confirm that the changes in downward wave coupling in the model are caused by ozone changes. The results reveal a new mechanism wherein stratospheric ozone changes can affect the tropospheric circulation.

Relative Contribution of Greenhouse Gases and Ozone-Depleting Substances to Temperature Trends in the Stratosphere: A Chemistry–Climate Model Study

Abstract The temperature of the stratosphere has decreased over the past several decades. Two causes contribute to that decrease: well-mixed greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). This paper addresses the attribution of temperature decreases to these two causes and the implications of that attribution for the future evolution of stratospheric temperature. Time series analysis is applied to simulations of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry–Climate Model (GEOS CCM) to separate the contributions of GHGs from those of ODSs based on their different time-dependent signatures. The analysis indicates that about 60%–70% of the temperature decrease of the past two decades in the upper stratosphere near 1 hPa and in the lower midlatitude stratosphere near 50 hPa resulted from changes attributable to ODSs, primarily through their impact on ozone. As ozone recovers over the next several decades, the temperature should continue to decrease in the middle and upper stratosphere because of GHG increases. The time series of observed temperature in the upper stratosphere is approaching the length needed to separate the effects of ozone-depleting substances from those of greenhouse gases using temperature time series data.

Understanding the Changes of Stratospheric Water Vapor in Coupled Chemistry–Climate Model Simulations

Past and future climate simulations from the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry–Climate Model (GEOS CCM), with specified boundary conditions for sea surface temperature, sea ice, and trace gas emissions, have been analyzed to assess trends and possible causes of changes in stratospheric water vapor. The simulated distribution of stratospheric water vapor in the 1990s compares well with observations. Changes in the cold point temperatures near the tropical tropopause can explain differences in entry stratospheric water vapor. The average saturation mixing ratio of a 20° latitude by 15° longitude region surrounding the minimum tropical saturation mixing ratio is shown to be a useful diagnostic for entry stratospheric water vapor and does an excellent job reconstructing the annual average entry stratospheric water vapor over the period 1950–2100. The simulated stratospheric water vapor increases over the 50 yr between 1950 and 2000, primarily because of changes in methane concentrations, offset by a slight decrease in tropical cold point temperatures. Stratospheric water vapor is predicted to continue to increase over the twenty-first century, with increasing methane concentrations causing the majority of the trend to midcentury. Small increases in cold point temperature cause increases in the entry water vapor throughout the twenty-first century. The increasing trend in future water vapor is tempered by a decreasing contribution of methane oxidation owing to cooling stratospheric temperatures and by increased tropical upwelling, leading to a near-zero trend for the last 30 yr of the twenty-first century.