Global Trade Policy Research Articles

Making green cocoa: Deforestation, the legacy of war, and agrarian capitalism in Côte d'Ivoire

AbstractThis article examines the legacy of war on environmental policy, contributing to recent literature on the linkages between armed violence, conservation, rural livelihoods and global value chains. It argues that environmental norms reshape agricultural practices, but also the means by which people claim control over land and labour. Using the case of cocoa in Côte d'Ivoire, this paper examines the impact of ‘zero‐deforestation’ policies on the country's last agricultural frontier: its western forestlands, where migration and deforestation have driven the development of the cocoa economy for years. The region is now feeling the effects of global trade policies such as the European Deforestation‐Free Regulation (EUDR), competition for the last remaining forests and social fault lines inherited from the war. This article traces the origins of the zero‐deforestation policy, its national and local impact and its implications for social struggles over the control of land and labour.

"Data Free Flow with Trust": Japan's struggle to integrate democracy and human rights into digital trade policy.

A powerful regime for regulating trade, the Group of Seven (G-7) has increasingly negotiated its digital trade through bilateral and preferential trade agreements, including with non-member states in the Global South. Focusing on the dominant concept shaping these agreements, Japan's "Data Free Flow with Trust" (D.F.F.T.), we trace its discursively contested emergence and meaning within a national ("Society 5.0") vision for Japan's digital transformation, and its subsequent transnationalization in international fora and institutionalization in global digital trade policy. Drawing on our interviews with Japanese government ministers, business elites, and legal experts who contributed to the processual development of D.F.F.T., as well as diverse additional primary sources, we find that the D.F.F.T. has become more than a trade policy, covering a wider range of social and geopolitical issues. In particular, we show that contention over "data localization measures" has restructured international relations of trust, especially across the Global North/South divide. Ultimately, this research report contributes to our understanding of how D.F.F.T. poses threats to human rights, democracy, and the global knowledge economy that may undermine its goals of enhancing innovation capacity and economic growth.

Omission in Adoption: Whole of Systems Approach Applied to Case Study Analysis of Genetically Modifi ed (GM) Maize Adoption in Eastern Cape Province South Africa

This article critically explores the political economy of genetically modifi ed (GM) maize adoption in South Africa, focusing on its impact on smallholder farmers using the whole-of-systems approach. While South Africa has become a leader in GM maize production, the benefi ts have been unevenly distributed, particularly disadvantaging smallholders. Government eff orts to integrate smallholders into the GM maize value chain have faced signifi cant challenges, including structural inequalities, high input costs, inadequate infrastructure, and limited access to education and resources. The article analyzes the broader political, economic, and environmental contexts, revealing how global trade policies, foreign investments, and domestic regulatory frameworks infl uence smallholder integration into the global maize value chain. A case study of the Eastern Cape province underscores the additional challenges smallholders face, such as climate change, labor shortages, and barriers to market access. Despite GM maize’s potential to improve food security and smallholder incomes, the article argues that current policies and institutional frameworks need substantial reforms to ensure equitable benefi ts. The research highlights the need for a multidimensional approach that addresses the socioeconomic, political, and environmental factors constraining smallholder participation in the GM maize sector, calling for targeted interventions to bridge the gap between large-scale commercial farms and smallholders.

Trading in Turbulent Times: Unravelling the Interplay between Trade Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitics in Russian Mineral Resource Supply

Trade policy plays a pivotal role in shaping import and export volumes within the global economy. However, the escalation of geopolitical tensions has posed significant challenges to the smooth flow of mineral resource trade. This study aims to analyse the consequences of global trade policy uncertainty (TPU) and various measures of geopolitical risk (GPR), including terror threats, war threats and nuclear threats (NCT), on Russian mineral exports (MEX). The analysis covers the period from January 2013 to December 2021. By employing sophisticated quantile regression methodologies, such as the cross-quantilogram (CQ) and cross-spectral quantile coherency (CQC) techniques, this study uncovers a compelling interaction between TPU and Russian MEX across different market conditions. Interestingly, TPU exerts a significantly positive impact on the export volumes of Russian mineral resources. In contrast, the presence of GPRs, particularly warfare and terrorism, proves to be detrimental to MEX during bullish market phases across various memory horizons. Surprisingly, NCT stimulates mineral trade during bearish market conditions, both in monthly and annual timeframes. These findings remain robust and consistent even when the CQC technique is employed. In light of these pressing geopolitical challenges, this study underscores the importance of developing sustainable mineral trade policies that foster enhanced global cohesion. It is crucial to address these challenges effectively to ensure the smooth and efficient flow of mineral resources in the international trade landscape. JEL Codes: C22, F13, F14, P28, Q21, Q27

Bibliometric Analysis of the Interconnection Between Global Trade and Exchange Rate Policies

This study conducts a bibliometric analysis to explore the intricate relationships between global trade and exchange rate policies. Utilizing data extracted from major academic databases, the research synthesizes relevant literature from the past three decades to identify key thematic areas, influential authors, and the evolution of research trends over time. The analysis reveals how exchange rate volatility impacts global trade dynamics, highlights the theoretical underpinnings such as the Mundell-Fleming model and the Purchasing Power Parity, and identifies gaps in the current literature. The study's findings provide significant insights into the role of exchange rate management in economic stability and the interconnectedness of global markets. Practical implications are discussed with a focus on policy formulation and strategic financial management, while theoretical contributions offer enhancements to existing economic frameworks and propose new areas for empirical research. This research not only enriches the academic field of international economics but also serves as a foundational resource for policymakers and economic strategists navigating the complexities of global trade.

The European Union-Mercosur Free Trade Agreement as a tool for environmentally sustainable land use governance

After twenty years of arduous negotiations, in 2019 the European Union (EU) and the Common Market of the South (Mercosur) announced the conclusion of a landmark trade agreement. Celebratory fireworks, however, were soon replaced by less desirable signs of smoke: the burning of the Amazon and Cerrado biomes, which has placed the bi-regional partnership under close public scrutiny. Since then, a lively debate among scholars, policymakers, activists, and private sector stakeholders has unfolded in an effort to assess the economic, social, and environmental implications of the agreement. To contribute to this debate, we use the EU-Mercosur Trade Agreement (EMTA) as a case study to discuss the complexities of transitioning to a global green trade policy paradigm, questioning whether free trade agreements could effectively promote sustainable land use governance. Bearing in mind the current environmental footprint of EU imports of Brazilian commodities, we illustrate the challenges inherent to decoupling international agri-food trade and land conversion, examining the current estimates and projections regarding the EMTA's potential impact on land-use change in Brazil. We also investigate the sustainable development provisions in the EU-Mercosur agreement, reviewing its land conversion-related clauses. While the EMTA has limitations common to other free trade agreements, it could be a useful additional tool for improving sustainability governance in the existing trade between the two regions by establishing a structured and legally stable platform for cooperation and implementing joint initiatives. The EMTA could set a positive benchmark for future free trade agreements that Mercosur might negotiate with other countries that are larger importers of agricultural commodities.

Global Trade Policies and Their Impact on Marketing in The Digital Age

Global Trade Policies and Their Impact on Marketing in The Digital Age

Colonial policy, ecological transformations, and agricultural “improvement”: comparing agricultural yields and expansion in the Spanish and U.S. Philippines, 1870–1925 CE

Burgeoning global trade and colonial policies promoted transformations in land use and agriculture throughout tropical regions in the 19th and 20th centuries, but the local and regional ecological consequences of landscape changes are still being identified and analysed. The Philippine Archipelago, which experienced successive colonial regimes across more than 7100 islands, exemplifies the multiplicity of ecological outcomes produced by these transformations. To better characterise diverse landscape change, we use colonial censuses and datasets to assess land use, production and agricultural yields in the Philippines during the late Spanish and early U.S. colonial periods (ca. 1870–1925). Our novel digital, quantitative analysis indicates that, at the national and provincial scales, agricultural production and land use increased for all major crops in both periods, while agricultural yields were mostly constant. Our results suggest that colonial investments to “improve” Philippine agriculture, specifically their efforts to increase production per hectare, were not effective. Our provincial-scale analysis also confirms the importance of distinct labour patterns, geographies and socio-political arrangements in defining this period’s ecological consequences, and we provide quantified and historically contextualised data in a format amenable to ecologists to promote future, localised historic ecological research.

Study of Supply Chain Selection Strategies of Firms under Geopolitics

Based on the geopolitical perspective, the study analyzes the interaction between global trade policies and supply chain strategies, and constructs a theoretical model to explore how the tariff structure of final products is shaped by value-added content and the role of the most-favored-nation (MFN) rule and the principle of reciprocal trade in it. The findings suggest that geopolitical factors have a significant impact on international trade strategies and supply chain configurations. This theoretical framework indicates the importance for policymakers to consider geopolitical complexity in maintaining the global trade order and supply chain resilience, and promotes the construction of solid and adaptable international trade and supply chain management strategies.

Not all oil shocks are alike and symmetric for economic growth: evidence from Korea

ABSTRACT This study’s primary contribution lies in conducting a comprehensive evaluation of how oil supply and demand shocks affect Korea’s economic growth, particularly emphasizing the role of uncertainty in global trade policies. Our research is primarily motivated by the desire to comprehend how various oil-related shocks impact a highly oil-import-dependent advanced economy like Korea, especially amid the fluctuating landscape of global trade policies. Employing a multi-step methodology that includes Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR), Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), and Nonlinear ARDL models, we delve into an extensive analysis spanning from 1998:Q1 to 2021:Q4. Our findings reveal that Korea’s economic growth is primarily influenced by aggregate and oil-specific demand shocks rather than oil supply shocks in the short and long term. Additionally, we observe an asymmetric influence of aggregate demand and oil-specific demand shocks on Korea’s long-term growth. However, such asymmetry is not evident across these three shock types in the short term. Lastly, we underscore the significant role of global trade policy uncertainty in assessing the impact of oil prices on Korea’s economic expansion. Our study’s unique focus on oil supply and demand shocks alongside policy uncertainty distinguishes it, emphasizing its distinct contribution to the field.

Fluktuasi Nilai Eksport dan Impor Minyak dan Gas Penerapan Permendag No 21 Tahun 2019 Berbasis Nilai Nilai Kebangsaan UUD 1945 Untuk Stabilisasi Ekonomi Dalam Negri.

Various factors, including changes in commodity prices, domestic production, trade policies, and geopolitical considerations, can impact the value of oil and gas imports and exports. In addition to technological innovation, economic fluctuations can also be influenced by changes in global demand, domestic production, and trade policies. The value of oil and gas imports and exports may experience fluctuations over time and between nations. The Perdag No. 21 of 2019 and the Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia No. 22 of 2001 pertaining to oil and natural gas govern export and import regulations, respectively. These documents provide a clear framework for the management of oil and natural gas resources in Indonesia and aim to harmonize regulations in the oil and gas sector. Natural gas, in addition to enhancing industry oversight and transparency, should be subject to scrutiny, as economic development can be influenced by export and import revenues. The government can subsequently manipulate this information to curb inflation, thereby contributing to the preservation of the nation's economic stability.

The Impacts of Financial Market, Trade and Economic Policy Uncertainties on the Import Performance of Advanced Economies

This study aims to examine the long-term and short-term diverse effects of economic policy uncertainty, trade policy uncertainty, and financial market uncertainties on the import performance of advanced economies. It employs the Pooled mean group autoregressive distributed lag (PMG/ARDL) method for the panel of 27 advanced economies using quarterly data from the first quarter of 1996 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The study's results reveal that local and global economic and trade policy uncertainties have significant adverse long-term effects on the import performance of advanced economies. Besides, financial market uncertainties negatively impact advanced economies’ imports in the long run. Nonetheless, the results imply that domestic economic and trade policy uncertainties positively affect imports in the short run. Moreover, the Dumitrescu-Hurlin (D-H) panel causality test indicated that bidirectional causality exists between financial market and trade policy uncertainty indicators and imports. However, unidirectional causality exists between economic policy indicators and imports. The results are consistent across different sensitivity analyses. Based on these findings, we propose policy implications to control economic, trade and financial market uncertainties and thereby alleviating their impact on the import performance of advanced economies.

The role of nature's contributions to people in sustaining international trade of agricultural products

Abstract Nature's contributions to people (NCP) are essential for the production and trade of agricultural, forestry and fishery commodities. Often, there is a spatial disconnect between consumers and the natural systems where the commodities are produced. Traded agricultural products are therefore dependent on nature and NCP in their region of origin. The dependencies of agricultural products on NCP are, however, insufficiently recognised by consumers and are rarely considered in global environmental governance and trade policies along value chains. Here, we synthesise studies highlighting dependencies of agricultural products on NCP in their origin locations to identify opportunities and challenges in quantifying their contribution in sustaining trade flows. We suggest three methodological steps for quantifying NCP dependencies in international agricultural trade: spatial mapping of NCP supply and demand, linking NCP to agricultural trade flows, and tracing trade flows. Each methodological step requires further development and harmonisation to enable a complete accounting of how international agricultural trade depends on NCP. Given the lack of knowledge and data on how NCP support agricultural trade, social and environmental trade‐offs of natural resource management are currently hard to quantify. Quantifying the role of NCP dependencies of traded agricultural products can support their sustainable management, contribute to supply chain accountability and serve as input to sustainable natural resource governance and foster responsibility and equity in supply chains. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Small State Diplomacy in Action: The Real Origins of TPP

The TPP Agreement – now CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement) – is, by any measure, a central part of the emerging global trade policy framework. To the author's surprise, it survived the decision of the United States to withdraw after USTR Mike Froman had signed the Agreement in Auckland 2015 on behalf of the US. Today, it incorporates 12 economies including leading G20 economies such as Japan, Mexico, Canada, Australia, and the UK, its most recent entrant. Six other economies, including most importantly, China, the world's second largest economy, are now applying for membership. What began between Singapore and New Zealand – a conscious strategic decision on their part to try to incentivize precisely this process of Asia-Pacific regional integration in 1999 – is now clearly a major part of the global geopolitical chessboard.

Trade Liberalization, IMF Conditionality, and Policy Substitution in Developing Countries

AbstractSubstantial tariff reductions and increased usage of non‐tariff measures (NTMs) have been key dynamics of global trade policy in recent decades. We use highly disaggregated data on applied most favored nation tariffs, NTMs, and trade to investigate how International Monetary Fund (IMF) conditionality as a form of external pressure to reduce tariffs contributed to this dynamic in developing countries. Our results show that structural adjustment programs (SAPs) effectively lowered tariffs without increasing the usage of NTMs. A typical three‐year program containing tariff conditionality decreased tariff rates in the range of 2.0 to 3.8 percentage points in total. Furthermore, IMF programs reduced NTM initializations significantly. We also show that tariff conditionality was more effective in initiating tariff cuts for countries without previous greater globalization efforts than being a “catalyst” for ongoing liberalization efforts.

The energy-saving effect of industrial chain synergistic division: Evidence from China's industrial chain

Under the influence of global trade policies, countries gradually build their entire industrial chains, and industrial policies show a localized development trend. In this context, what impact will the industrial chain localization policy have on the low-carbon transition and high energy efficiency? It is significant for achieving the energy conservation and emission reduction goal. Therefore, this paper uses non-competitive input-output tables from 2002 to 2017 to construct China's domestic industrial chain panel data. We combined the econometric model to explore the influence of industrial chain synergistic division on energy intensity. The research found that the industrial chain synergistic division effect can significantly reduce energy intensity. The results were robust after some endogeneity tests. Secondly, the energy-saving effect brought by the synergistic division is more obvious in high-energy dependence and high-stage industrial chains. There is still room to improve the production efficiency brought by the division network effect. Finally, the industrial chain synergistic division can reduce energy intensity by improving labor productivity, enterprise productivity, and enterprise competition mechanism. This study can provide targeted policy recommendations for China to achieve structural energy-saving. It can also provide a reference for other countries to achieve carbon neutrality.

Unraveling the Relationship Between GDP and Unemployment in China with Okuns Law

As the worlds second-largest economic powerhouse, China stands at the nexus of global trade, investment, and economic policies. Yet, despite its meteoric rise and the subsequent spotlight on its financial milestones, the correlation between its GDP growth and the unemployment rate remains a fertile ground for exploration. Using time-series data as the backbone of this paper, the Granger Causality Test and Vector Autoregression (VAR) methodologies are employed during the research process. These sophisticated approaches are capable of ascertaining the linear interdependencies between these variables, providing a dynamic perspective that goes beyond traditional static analyses. This research aims to answer key questions: Can the historical fluctuations in GDP serve as a reliable predictor for future unemployment trajectories, and if so, to what extent does Okuns Law hold true? Conversely, does a shift in unemployment rates offer insights into potential GDP movements? The conclusions drawn from this comprehensive analysis aim to uncover the relationship between GDP and unemployment and provide possible explanations by integrating the notion of Okuns law.

Commodity Prices and the US Business Cycle

This article explores the relationship between commodity price cycles and the US business cycle. Commodity price cycles are known to foster capricious macroeconomic activity, and understanding their behaviour offers valuable economic insight. The US business cycle is a key indicator of the broader economic conditions, reflecting changes in economic activity, consumer spending, and overall market conditions. By examining the dynamics and interplay between these two cycles, this study provides insights into the potential synchronisation, lag, or lead between commodity price cycles and the US business cycle. The study employs a Fourier analysis of commodity price cycles and the US business cycle. In addition, the same empirical method will be used to analyse historical rainfall patterns in the US as a means of furthering the role of historical rainfall patterns in shaping agricultural productivity and subsequent price movements. Results show dominant cycles of 14.2 years throughout the commodity price dataset, 3.8 years within the US business cycle, and 14.2 years in US historical rainfall patterns. The study also identifies several factors that influence the relationship between these two cycles, including global demand, trade policies, and financial market fluctuations.

CRITICAL REVIEW OF CHAPTER II - TRENDS IN INTERNATIONAL MARKETS: TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2022, (P41-67)

This critical review concentrates on Chapter II of The Trade and Development Report (TDR), which is prepared annually by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and presented to the General Assembly via the Secretary-General of the United Nations. TDR 2022 provides analysis of global trade trends and policy issues that affect trade and financial flows, and offers recommendations how to make the world economy fairer for all nations. Published in April 2023, the Report relays a warning of economic stagnation which will especially adversely affect developing nations. It cites supply-side disruptions and the war in Ukraine as major factors behind inflation, food and energy price increases and cost-of-living crises. It singles out monetary tightening in advanced economies and appreciating US dollar as main contributing factors in capital retreat from developing nations and increases in cost of their dollar denominated debt. TDR 2022 estimates that after having spent $379 billion of national reserves for the purpose of currency protection in 2022 alone, many developing nations are now left with dwindling central bank reserves. This begs the question, does the supremacy of some economies in relation to the global economy and their outsized influence on the global economy, warrant an attempt at new and improved central bank mission statements that should be looked at by various governments? Perhaps that effort could concentrate at articulating statements that take into account central bank actions that are intended to stabilize, protect, and expand the global economy as a whole, thus evolve today’s selfish approach by competing central banks that are single-mindedly focused on domestic circumstances. By concentrating locally, their actions are often seen as simply displacing economic pains rather than attempting to fix them. Therefore, the Report offers some recommendations how to avert negative spillovers from monetary tightening policies in advanced economies and austerity measures that accompany them. Other recommendations pertain to leveling the global economic playing field and include reforming the international legal framework governing debt, windfall taxes on excessive profits, and reigning in speculative activities in commodity markets.

‘Made in Hong Kong’: Deriving value from the place-of-origin label, 1950s and now

AbstractFocusing on soy sauce exports from Hong Kong to the United States, this article traces the origin of the ‘Made in Hong Kong’ label to the US-led embargo on Chinese goods during the Korean War and explores the repercussions the recent Sino-US conflict generated on the label. By examining the history of an enterprise embroiled in two episodes of global trade disruptions, this article reveals how politically motivated US trade policies steered businesses in Hong Kong to pursue commercial opportunities by leveraging geopolitics, both global and local. Strategically capitalizing on Hong Kong’s position during the Cold War that allowed local exports to the United States, Hong Kong entrepreneurs created an international product chain. When the latest Sino-US trade war erupted, Trump’s elimination of the distinction between China-made and Hong Kong-made exports coincided with a wave of local consumerism in Hong Kong and unintentionally imbued meaning into homegrown products. From a commercially expedient marker aimed at satisfying the US government’s anti-China trade requirements, the ‘Made in Hong Kong’ label has recently been repurposed as a badge of local pride and perseverance as Hong Kong/mainland tension escalated. Necessitated by global trade policies and infused with connotations of shifting geopolitics, the malleable ‘Made in Hong Kong’ label signified not only reactions to US policies but also fluid Hong Kong/China relations. In successive rounds of US-initiated trade disruptions, the place-of-origin label reflected Hong Kong’s changing place in global geopolitics and the city’s position vis-à-vis the PRC.