Global Time Series Research Articles

Evaluating the applicability of landsat 8 data for global time series analysis

Evaluating the applicability of landsat 8 data for global time series analysis

A minute-resolution downscaling algorithm for high-resolution global irradiance time series

Numerous studies have demonstrated the significant impact of the resolution of solar irradiation data on the outcomes of hourly production models. Accurate integration of photovoltaic (PV) systems sometimes demands a high-resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) time series to capture the rapid fluctuations in PV power output induced by swift irradiance changes. Most of the available databases provide data at hourly resolution, leading to a lack of accuracy in PV simulations. Those existing hourly averages of global horizontal irradiance in open sources fail to represent this volatility adequately, especially when PV systems are coupled with fast ramp rate technologies. In the present work, an easy-to-use algorithm is implemented to synthesize high-resolution GHI time series from hourly averaged and clear sky irradiance datasets. By employing Linear interpolation, a technique that helps to achieve the desired time resolution and afterward computing critical factors, the algorithm identifies periods characterized by short-term weather phenomena, thus creating a high-resolution time series that accurately represents these dynamics. Avoiding the probabilistic components and machine learning techniques conserves computational power and reduces calculation time, but this comes at the cost of reduced fidelity in reproducing the results. Improving accuracy in PV simulations is not always directly related to reproducing real phenomena, but enhancing the amount of information contained in the data is sufficient. This study’s approach enhances user-friendliness and facilitates seamless integration into existing energy modeling frameworks, aiming for representation with sub-hourly time steps. The algorithm’s effectiveness is demonstrated by applying the model to hourly averaged data to revert them to a one-minute time step, and finally comparing the synthetically produced one-minute GHI data to the original measured data. The comparative analysis between synthesized and measured data demonstrated a strong agreement, with normalized mean bias error (MBE) values ranging between 1.8% and 9.6% and normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) values between 2.7% and 16.1%, depending on weather conditions. Additionally, the coefficient of determination (R2) consistently remained above 0.64. Successful algorithm validation makes our algorithm suitable for use in meteorological datasets and locations, with similar climatic characteristics.

Rock glaciers across the United States predominantly accelerate coincident with rise in air temperatures

Despite their extensive global presence and the importance of variations in their speed as an essential climate variable, only about a dozen global time series document long-term changes in the velocity of rock glaciers – large tongue-shaped flows of frozen mountain debris. By analysing historical aerial photographs, we reconstruct here 16 new time series, a type of data that has not previously existed for the North American continent. We observe substantial accelerations, as much as 2–3 fold, in the surface displacement rates of rock glaciers across the mountains of the western contiguous United States over the past six to seven decades, most consistent with strongly increasing air temperatures in that region. Variations between individual time series suggest that different local and internal conditions of the frozen debris bodies modulate this overall climate response. Our observations indicate fundamental long-term environmental changes associated with frozen ground in the study region.

Directional Applicability Analysis of Albedo Retrieval Using Prior BRDF Knowledge

Surface albedo measures the proportion of incoming solar radiation reflected by the Earth’s surface. Accurate albedo retrieval from remote sensing data usually requires sufficient multi-angular observations to account for the surface reflectance anisotropy. However, most middle and high-resolution remote sensing satellites lack the capability to acquire sufficient multi-angular observations. Existing algorithms for retrieving surface albedo from single-direction reflectance typically rely on land cover types and vegetation indices to extract the corresponding prior knowledge of surface anisotropic reflectance from coarse-resolution Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) products. This study introduces an algorithm for retrieving albedo from directional reflectance based on a 3 × 3 BRDF archetype database established using the 2015 global time-series Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) BRDF product. For different directions, BRDF archetypes are applied to the simulated MODIS directional reflectance to retrieve albedo. By comparing the retrieved albedos with the MODIS albedo, the BRDF archetype that yields the smallest Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) is selected as the prior BRDF for the direction. A lookup table (LUT) that contains the optimal BRDF archetypes for albedo retrieval under various observational geometries is established. The impact of the number of BRDF archetypes on the accuracy of albedo is analyzed according to the 2020 MODIS BRDF. The LUT is applied to the MODIS BRDF within specific BRDF archetype classes to validate its applicability under different anisotropic reflectance characteristics. The applicability of the LUT across different data types is further evaluated using simulated reflectance or real multi-angular measurements. The results indicate that (1) for any direction, a specific BRDF archetype can retrieve a high-accuracy albedo from directional reflectance. The optimal BRDF archetype varies with the observation direction. (2) Compared to the prior BRDF knowledge obtained through averaging method, the BRDF archetype LUT based on the 3 × 3 BRDF archetype database can more accurately retrieve the surface albedo. (3) The BRDF archetype LUT effectively eliminates the influence of surface anisotropic reflectance characteristics in albedo retrieval across different scales and types of data.

Complex Network Model of Global Financial Time Series Based on Different Distance Functions

By constructing a complex network model grounded in time series analysis, this study delves into the intricate relationships between the stock markets of 18 countries worldwide. Utilizing 31 distinct time series distance functions to formulate the network, we employ Hamming distance to quantify the resemblance between networks derived from different distance functions. By modulating the network density through distance percentiles (p=0.1, 0.3, 0.5), we demonstrate the similarity of various distance functions across multiple density levels. Our findings reveal that certain distance functions exhibit high degrees of similarity across varying network densities, suggesting their potential for mutual substitution in network construction. Furthermore, the centroid network identified via hierarchical cluster analysis highlights the similarities between the stock markets of different nations, mirroring the intricate interconnections within the global financial landscape. The insights gained from this study offer crucial perspectives for comprehending the intricate network structure of global financial time series data, paving the way for further analysis and prediction of global financial market dynamics.

Multiple serial correlations in global air temperature anomaly time series.

Serial correlations within temperature time series serve as indicators of the temporal consistency of climate events. This study delves into the serial correlations embedded in global surface air temperature (SAT) data. Initially, we preprocess the SAT time series to eradicate seasonal patterns and linear trends, resulting in the SAT anomaly time series, which encapsulates the inherent variability of Earth's climate system. Employing diverse statistical techniques, we identify three distinct types of serial correlations: short-term, long-term, and nonlinear. To identify short-term correlations, we utilize the first-order autoregressive model, AR(1), revealing a global pattern that can be partially attributed to atmospheric Rossby waves in extratropical regions and the Eastern Pacific warm pool. For long-term correlations, we adopt the standard detrended fluctuation analysis, finding that the global pattern aligns with long-term climate variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the Eastern Pacific. Furthermore, we apply the horizontal visibility graph (HVG) algorithm to transform the SAT anomaly time series into complex networks. The topological parameters of these networks aptly capture the long-term correlations present in the data. Additionally, we introduce a novel topological parameter, Δσ, to detect nonlinear correlations. The statistical significance of this parameter is rigorously tested using the Monte Carlo method, simulating fractional Brownian motion and fractional Gaussian noise processes with a predefined DFA exponent to estimate confidence intervals. In conclusion, serial correlations are universal in global SAT time series and the presence of these serial correlations should be considered carefully in climate sciences.

Wavelet-based correlations of the global magnetic field in connection to strongest earthquakes

We consider 3-component records of the magnetic field strength with a time step of 1 min at 153 stations of the INTERMAGNET network for 31 years, 1991–2021. Data analysis is based on the calculation of pairwise correlation coefficients between wavelet coefficients in successive time windows 1 day long (1440 min counts). To describe the state of the magnetic field, the maxima of the average values of all pairwise correlation coefficients between stations were chosen, calculated over all detail levels of the wavelet decomposition and over all components of the magnetic field strength vector. The daily time series of such maxima is called wavelet correlation. The division of the network stations into 7 clusters is considered, and a time series of wavelet correlations is calculated for each cluster. In a sliding time window with a length of 365 days, correlation measures of synchronization of wavelet correlations from different clusters are calculated, which are compared with the strongest earthquakes with a magnitude of at least 8.5. For the global time series of wavelet correlations, the method of influence matrices is used to study the relationship between the maximum correlation responses to a change in the length of the day and a sequence of earthquakes with a magnitude of at least 7. As a result of the analysis, precursor effects are identified, and the important role of the Maule earthquake in Chile on February 27, 2010 in the behavior of the response of magnetic field for the preparation of strong seismic events is shown.

A global time series of traffic volumes on extra-urban roads

Traffic on roads outside of urban areas (i.e. extra-urban roads) can have major ecological and environmental impacts on agricultural, forested, and natural areas. Yet, data on extra-urban traffic volumes is lacking in many regions. To address this data gap, we produced a global time-series of traffic volumes (Annual Average Daily Traffic; AADT) on all extra-urban highways, primary roads, and secondary roads for the years 1975, 1990, 2000 and 2015. We constructed time series of road networks from existing global datasets on roads, population density, and socio-economic indicators, and combined these with a large collection of empirical AADT data from all continents except Antarctica. We used quantile regression forests to predict the median and 5% and 95% prediction intervals of AADT on each road section. The validation accuracy of the model was high (pseudo-R2 = 0.7407) and AADT predictions from 1975 were also accurate. The resulting map series provides standardised and fine-scaled information on the development of extra-urban road traffic and has a wide variety of practical and scientific applications.

Identifying archived insect bulk samples using DNA metabarcoding: A case study using the long‐term Rothamsted Insect Survey

AbstractInsect populations are declining in many parts of the world, but a lack of long‐term monitoring data is impeding our ability to understand and mitigate the causes of insect biodiversity loss. Whilst high‐throughput sequencing (HTS) approaches, such as DNA metabarcoding, have the potential to revolutionize insect biomonitoring through rapid scalable identification, it is unclear to what extent HTS can be applied to long‐term stored insect samples. Archived insect samples could inform forecasting and provide valuable information regarding past changes to biodiversity. Here, we assess the efficacy of DNA metabarcoding to identify archived samples from the longest passive monitoring scheme in the United Kingdom: the Rothamsted Insect Survey (RIS). With a focus on aphids as the target taxa of a national network of suction‐traps, we analyze a 16‐year time‐series of stored samples (2003–2018) using DNA metabarcoding from one of the RIS suction traps as an exemplar. We achieved this by using a non‐destructive DNA extraction protocol, ensuring the integrity of archival samples for further studies. We compared the identities of aphids determined by both metabarcoding (as inferred amplicon sequence variants [ASVs]) and morphological identification and found that metabarcoding detected most genera with varying success (mean > 76%). When comparing the two methods objectively (i.e., including taxa not detected morphologically), however, congruence decreased (51%). We show that minimum sequence copy thresholds can minimize metabarcoding false positives, but at the expense of introducing false negatives, highlighting the need for careful data curation. Detectability of taxa identified morphologically and similarity between the two methods did not significantly vary over time, demonstrating the viability of metabarcoding for screening archival samples. We discuss the advantages and challenges of metabarcoding for insect biomonitoring, particularly from archival samples, including improvements to sample handling, processing, and archiving. We highlight the wider potential of HTS approaches for stored samples from insect monitoring schemes, unlocking the immense potential of global historical time series.

Comparison of ocean-colour algorithms for particulate organic carbon in global ocean

In the oceanic surface layer, particulate organic carbon (POC) constitutes the biggest pool of particulate material of biological origin, encompassing phytoplankton, zooplankton, bacteria, and organic detritus. POC is of general interest in studies of biologically-mediated fluxes of carbon in the ocean, and over the years, several empirical algorithms have been proposed to retrieve POC concentrations from satellite products. These algorithms can be categorised into those that make use of remote-sensing-reflectance data directly, and those that are dependent on chlorophyll concentration and particle backscattering coefficient derived from reflectance values. In this study, a global database of in situ measurements of POC is assembled, against which these different types of algorithms are tested using daily matchup data extracted from the Ocean Colour Climate Change Initiative (OC-CCI; version 5). Through analyses of residuals, pixel-by-pixel uncertainties, and validation based on optical water types, areas for POC algorithm improvement are identified, particularly in regions underrepresented in the in situ POC data sets, such as coastal and high-latitude waters. We conclude that POC algorithms have reached a state of maturity and further improvements can be sought in blending algorithms for different optical water types when the required in situ data becomes available. The best performing band ratio algorithm was tuned to the OC-CCI version 5 product and used to produce a global time series of POC between 1997–2020 that is freely available.

Global patterns in river water storage dependent on residence time

Accurate assessment of global river flows and stores is critical for informing water management practices, but current estimates of global river flows exhibit substantial spread and estimates of river stores remain sparse. Estimates of river flows and stores are hampered by uncertainties in land runoff, an unobserved quantity that provides water input to rivers. Here we leverage global river flow observations and an ensemble of land surface models to generate a globally gauge-corrected monthly river flow and storage dataset. We estimate a global river storage mean (± monthly variability) of 2,246 ± 505 km3 and a global continental flow of 37,411 ± 7,816 km3 yr−1. Our global river water storage time series demonstrates that flow wave residence time is a fundamental driver that can double or halve river water stores and their variability. We also reconcile the wide range in previous estimates of monthly variability in global river flows. We identify previously underappreciated freshwater sources to the ocean from the Maritime Continent (Indonesia, Malaysia and Papua New Guinea) amounting to 1.6 times the Congo River and illustrate our capability of detecting severe anthropogenic water withdrawals.

HiQ-LAI: a high-quality reprocessed MODIS leaf area index dataset with better spatiotemporal consistency from 2000 to 2022

Abstract. Leaf area index (LAI) is a crucial parameter for characterizing vegetation canopy structure and energy absorption capacity. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LAI has played a significant role in landmark studies due to its clear theoretical basis, extensive historical time series, extensive validation results, and open accessibility. However, MODIS LAI retrievals are calculated independently for each pixel and a specific day, resulting in high noise levels in the time series and limiting its applications in the regions of optical remote sensing. Reprocessing MODIS LAI predominantly relies on temporal information to achieve smoother LAI profiles with little use of spatial information and may easily ignore genuine LAI anomalies. To address these problems, we designed the spatiotemporal information compositing algorithm (STICA) for the reprocessing of MODIS LAI products. This method integrates information from multiple dimensions, including pixel quality information, spatiotemporal correlation, and the original retrieval, thereby enabling both “reprocessing” and “value-added data” with respect to the existing MODIS LAI products, leading to the development of the high-quality LAI (HiQ-LAI) dataset. Compared with ground measurements, HiQ-LAI shows better performance than the original MODIS product with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) or bias decrease from 0.87 or −0.17 to 0.78 or −0.06, respectively. This is due to the improvement of HiQ-LAI with respect to capturing the seasonality in vegetation phenology and reducing abnormal time-series fluctuations. The time-series stability (TSS) index, which represents temporal stability, indicated that the area with smooth LAI time series expanded from 31.8 % (MODIS) to 78.8 % (HiQ) globally, and this improvement is more obvious in equatorial regions where optical remote sensing cannot usually achieve good performance. We found that HiQ-LAI demonstrates superior continuity and consistency compared with raw MODIS LAI from both spatial and temporal perspectives. We anticipate that the global HiQ-LAI time series, generated using the STICA procedure on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, will substantially enhance support for diverse global LAI time-series applications. The 5 km 8 d HiQ-LAI datasets from 2000 to 2022 are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8296768 (Yan et al., 2023).

Anelasticity of the lower mantle inferred from the pole and lunar monthly tides using global DORIS coordinate time series

Global mantle anelasticity reflects the dissipation mechanism of Earth's interior structure. Nevertheless, there is still an ongoing debate regarding the anelastic properties of the lower mantle (660–2900 km depth). Advancements in data accuracy and record expansion have enabled geodetic technology to offer novel methods for determining the anelastic properties of the lower mantle. This study utilizes an optimal sequence estimation method to obtain tidal Love numbers based on Doppler Orbitography and Radio-positioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS) coordinate time series. Love number h2,1 of pole tides at the 433-day Chandler wobble (CW) is 0.6280 (±0.0040) - 0.0127 (±0.0037)i. Love numbers h2,0 and l2,0 of zonal body tides at the 27.55-day Lunar month (Mm) are 0.6137 (±0.0034) - 0.0032 (±0.0035)i and 0.0886 (±0.0009) - 0.0015 (±0.0007)i, respectively. In light of these estimates, we infer the dispersion and dissipation parameters fr(ω) and fi(ω), respectively, by employing the power-law absorption band model with a reference period of 200 s and determine the weighted-mean value of the frequency exponent α as 0.210 ± 0.023 that links closely related to the effective viscosity. For comparison, we calculate the corresponding values from a laboratory-based extended Burgers model and show that the anelasticity parameter functions appear more compact but still support the conclusion that α varies between 0.1 and 0.3. Our results could serve as a practical constraint on the anelastic behavior of the lower mantle, contributing to a better understanding of the overall dynamics of the Earth's deep interior.

Validation of global precipitation time series products against tree ring records and remotely sensed vegetation greenness.

Global interpolated climate products are widely used in ecological research to investigate biosphere-climate interactions and to track ecological response to climate variability and climate change. In turn, biological data could also be used for an independent validation of one aspect of climate data quality. All else being equal, more variance explained in biological data identifies the better climate data product. Here, we compare seven global precipitation time series products, including gauge-based datasets (CRU-TS, UDEL-TS, GPCC), re-analysis products (ERA5, CHELSA), a satellite-based dataset (PERSIANN) and a multi-source product that draws on gauge, re-analysis, and satellite data (MSWEP). We focus on precipitation variables, because they are more difficult to interpolate than temperature, and show larger divergence among gridded data products. Our validation is based on 20 years of remotely sensed vegetation greenness (MODIS-EVI) and 120 years of tree ring records from the International Tree Ring Data Bank (ITRDB). The results for the 20-year EVI based validation shows that all gauge and re-analysis data products performed similarly, but were outperformed by the multi-source MSWEP product, especially in regions with low weather station coverage, such as Africa. For analyzing long 120-year time-series, UDEL-TS showed superior performance prior to the 1940s, with especially large margins for northern Asia and the Himalayas region. For other regions, CRU-TS and GPCC could be recommended. We provide maps that can guide the best regional choice of climate product for research involving time series of biological response to historic climate variability and climate change.

A novel sea surface pCO2-product for the global coastal ocean resolving trends over 1982–2020

Abstract. In recent years, advancements in machine learning based interpolation methods have enabled the production of high-resolution maps of sea surface partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) derived from observations extracted from databases such as the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT). These pCO2-products now allow quantifying the oceanic air–sea CO2 exchange based on observations. However, most of them do not yet explicitly include the coastal ocean. Instead, they simply extend the open ocean values onto the nearshore shallow waters, or their spatial resolution is simply so coarse that they do not accurately capture the highly heterogeneous spatiotemporal pCO2 dynamics of coastal zones. Until today, only one global pCO2-product has been specifically designed for the coastal ocean (Laruelle et al., 2017). This product, however, has shortcomings because it only provides a climatology covering a relatively short period (1998–2015), thus hindering its application to the evaluation of the interannual variability, decadal changes and the long-term trends of the coastal air–sea CO2 exchange, a temporal evolution that is still poorly understood and highly debated. Here we aim at closing this knowledge gap and update the coastal product of Laruelle et al. (2017) to investigate the longest global monthly time series available for the coastal ocean from 1982 to 2020. The method remains based on a two-step Self-Organizing Maps and Feed-Forward Network method adapted for coastal regions, but we include additional environmental predictors and use a larger pool of training and validation data with ∼18 million direct observations extracted from the latest release of the SOCAT database. Our study reveals that the coastal ocean has been acting as an atmospheric CO2 sink of −0.40 Pg C yr−1 (−0.18 Pg C yr−1 with a narrower coastal domain) on average since 1982, and the intensity of this sink has increased at a rate of 0.06 Pg C yr−1 decade−1 (0.02 Pg C yr−1 decade−1 with a narrower coastal domain) over time. Our results also show that the temporal changes in the air–sea pCO2 gradient plays a significant role in the long-term evolution of the coastal CO2 sink, along with wind speed and sea-ice coverage changes that can also play an important role in some regions, particularly at high latitudes. This new reconstructed coastal pCO2-product (https://doi.org/10.25921/4sde-p068; Roobaert et al., 2023) allows us to establish regional carbon budgets requiring high-resolution coastal flux estimates and provides new constraints for closing the global carbon cycle.

Seasonal predictability of the dominant surface ozone pattern over China linked to sea surface temperature

Mitigation surface ozone pollution becomes increasingly pivotal in improving China’s air quality. However, the impact of global sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) on the long-term predictability of China’s surface ozone remains challenging. In this study, we employ eigen techniques to effectively characterize dominant surface ozone patterns over China, and establish cross-correlations between the dominant patterns and global SSTA time series. Our findings reveal that China’s summer ozone pollution is strongly associated with crucial SSTA clusters linked to atmospheric circulations, i.e., the West Pacific Subtropical High and the Pacific-North American teleconnection pattern. For winter, ozone pollution is attributed to SSTA clusters related to the Southern Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation and others. We propose a multivariate regression model capable of predicting surface ozone patterns with a lead time of at least 3 months. Evaluation of our model using a testing dataset yields an R-value of around 0.5 between predicted and observed data, surpassing statistical significance threshold. This suggests the viability and potential applicability of our predictive model in surface ozone forecasting and mitigation strategies in China.

The Application of Deep Learning Methods in the Forecasting and Imputation of Solar Irradiance Data

Accurate solar radiation forecasts are necessary for solar power plants and local energy grids. Precise solar predictions can optimise plant operations and assist in managing power generation fluctuations. High-quality solar data are required to perform solar forecasting and may be accessed through open databases such as the Baseline Surface Radiation Network. Due to maintenance and malfunctioning equipment, these databases may have missing data. Deep learning methods can extract relevant features and non-linearities in data, which make them suitable for forecasting and imputation tasks. The development of the transformer architecture in 2017 marked an improvement from recurrent sequence processing using RNN (recurrent neural net) architectures to parallel sequence handling using self-attention mechanisms. Previous deep learning irradiance forecasting models utilised a RNN or RNN extension architecture. This paper presents novel applications of Transformer models to solar imputation and forecasting. Two deep learning architectures – Transformer and SAITS (Self-Attention-based Imputation for Time Series) – were trained to impute time series of global horizontal irradiance. Additionally, a Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) deep learning architecture was trained to forecast future values of global horizontal irradiance time series. Feature concatenation allows for the combination of differing exogenous variables into a single input vector for a deep learning solar forecasting model. Previous solar forecasting models do not incorporate cloud data or otherwise utilise an exogenous simple categorical mask to indicate cloud cover. In this paper, GOES-16 cloud optical depth and particle size datasets provide an improved representation of cloud properties. Classical imputation and forecasting models were also developed and used as baselines for comparison with deep learning models. The models were evaluated using standard statistical metrics for time series. It was found that the deep learning TFT forecasting model produced better forecasts than the classical regression model. However, the classical KNN imputer performed better than the two deep learning imputation models.

Exploring the dynamics of monkeypox transmission with data-driven methods and a deterministic model.

Mpox (formerly monkeypox) is an infectious disease that spreads mostly through direct contact with infected animals or people's blood, bodily fluids, or cutaneous or mucosal lesions. In light of the global outbreak that occurred in 2022-2023, in this paper, we analyzed global Mpox univariate time series data and provided a comprehensive analysis of disease outbreaks across the world, including the USA with Brazil and three continents: North America, South America, and Europe. The novelty of this study is that it delved into the Mpox time series data by implementing the data-driven methods and a mathematical model concurrently-an aspect not typically addressed in the existing literature. The study is also important because implementing these models concurrently improved our predictions' reliability for infectious diseases. We proposed a traditional compartmental model and also implemented deep learning models (1D- convolutional neural network (CNN), long-short term memory (LSTM), bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM), hybrid CNN-LSTM, and CNN-BiLSTM) as well as statistical time series models: autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and exponential smoothing on the Mpox data. We also employed the least squares method fitting to estimate the essential epidemiological parameters in the proposed deterministic model. The primary finding of the deterministic model is that vaccination rates can flatten the curve of infected dynamics and influence the basic reproduction number. Through the numerical simulations, we determined that increased vaccination among the susceptible human population is crucial to control disease transmission. Moreover, in case of an outbreak, our model showed the potential for epidemic control by adjusting the key epidemiological parameters, namely the baseline contact rate and the proportion of contacts within the human population. Next, we analyzed data-driven models that contribute to a comprehensive understanding of disease dynamics in different locations. Additionally, we trained models to provide short-term (eight-week) predictions across various geographical locations, and all eight models produced reliable results. This study utilized a comprehensive framework to investigate univariate time series data to understand the dynamics of Mpox transmission. The prediction showed that Mpox is in its die-out situation as of July 29, 2023. Moreover, the deterministic model showed the importance of the Mpox vaccination in mitigating the Mpox transmission and highlighted the significance of effectively adjusting key epidemiological parameters during outbreaks, particularly the contact rate in high-risk groups.

Hybrid Global Annual 1-km IGBP Land Cover Maps for the Period 2000–2020

Land cover products provide critical information for monitoring and analyzing land surface changes. However, notable disagreement and incompatible classification systems among existing land cover products bring challenges in using them. Here, we developed a hierarchical International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) classification system and integrated four widely used land cover products (i.e., MODIS-IGBP, ESA-CCI, GlobeLand30, and GLC_FCS30) based on their accuracy against a collection of global reference samples. We generated a hybrid global annual land cover product (HYBMAP) with ~1 km (1/120°, 30″) spatial resolution from 2000 to 2020. The HYBMAP integrates information from the four products of high- and medium-resolution and reduces the disagreement between them by up to 20.1%. The overall accuracy of the HYBMAP is 75.5%, which is higher than the best of the four products (MODIS-IGBP, 70.9%). HYBMAP also integrates the temporal change information from the four products and identifies a faster growth of built-up lands. The HYBMAP provides more consistent and reliable global land cover time series data for global change research. It is free to access at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10488191 .

Predicting Global Average Temperature Time Series Using an Entire Graph Node Training Approach

Predicting Global Average Temperature Time Series Using an Entire Graph Node Training Approach