Global Risk Research Articles

The Upregulation of Leucine-Rich Repeat Containing 1 Expression Activates Hepatic Stellate Cells and Promotes Liver Fibrosis by Stabilizing Phosphorylated Smad2/3.

Liver fibrosis poses a significant global health risk due to its association with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and the lack of effective treatments. Thus, the need to discover additional novel therapeutic targets to attenuate liver diseases is urgent. Leucine-rich repeat containing 1 (LRRC1) reportedly promotes HCC development. Previously, we found that LRRC1 was significantly upregulated in rat fibrotic liver according to the transcriptome sequencing data. Herein, in the current work, we aimed to explore the role of LRRC1 in liver fibrosis and the underlying mechanisms involved. LRRC1 expression was positively correlated with liver fibrosis severity and significantly elevated in both human and murine fibrotic liver tissues. LRRC1 knockdown or overexpression inhibited or enhanced the proliferation, migration, and expression of fibrogenic genes in the human hepatic stellate cell line LX-2. More importantly, LRRC1 inhibition in vivo significantly alleviated CCl4-induced liver fibrosis by reducing collagen accumulation and hepatic stellate cells' (HSCs) activation in mice. Mechanistically, LRRC1 promoted HSC activation and liver fibrogenesis by preventing the ubiquitin-mediated degradation of phosphorylated mothers against decapentaplegic homolog (Smad) 2/3 (p-Smad2/3), thereby activating the TGF-β1/Smad pathway. Collectively, these results clarify a novel role for LRRC1 as a regulator of liver fibrosis and indicate that LRRC1 is a promising target for antifibrotic therapies.

Interpretable corn future price forecasting with multivariate time series

AbstractEfforts in corn future price forecasting and early warning play a vital role in guiding the high‐quality development of the agricultural economy. However, recent years have witnessed significant fluctuations in global corn future prices due to the impact of COVID‐19 and the escalating risks associated with geopolitical conflicts. Therefore, there is an urgent need for accurate and efficient methods to forecast corn future prices. To address this challenge, a novel and comprehensive framework for explainable corn future price forecasting is designed. This framework takes into account multiple factors contributing to corn price volatility, including supply and demand dynamics, policy adjustments, international market shocks, global geopolitical risks, and investor concerns within the corn market. During the data processing stage, complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) is utilized to thoroughly explore the volatility characteristics of historical corn future prices. Additionally, a convolutional neural network (CNN) is employed to extract essential forecasting information from corn news data. To enhance interpretability, a novel JADE–TFT interpretable corn future price prediction model is proposed. This model combines adaptive differential evolution with optional external archiving (JADE) to intelligently and efficiently optimize the parameters of the temporal fusion transformers (TFTs). Furthermore, in the empirical study, the introduction of a global geopolitical risk coefficient, Baidu indices such as “corn” and “corn price,” and quantized corn news text features is shown to improve the accuracy of corn future price predictions. The proposed corn future price prediction framework contributes to the healthy development of the global grain futures market, thereby fostering the growth and well‐being of enterprises involved in the grain industry.

Meta-analysis of the global prevalence and risk factors of Enterocytozoon bieneusi infection in pigs from 1999 to 2021

Enterocytozoon bieneusi (E. bieneusi), which is one of the most common microsporidia, has been identified as an important obligate intracellular pathogen that commonly colonizes in a variety of animal species and humans worldwide, including humans. In this study, the statistical analyses of E. bieneusi infection and prevalence were performed to clarify the relationship between different genotypes in different countries. The databases Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), VIP Chinese Journal Database, Wanfang Data, PubMed, Web of Science and ScienceDirect were used for data collection. The research data were subjected to subgroup, univariate regression, and correlation, to reveal factors related to the high prevalence of E. bieneusi. A total of, 34 of the 498 articles published before April 2022 met the inclusion criteria. The global prevalence of E. bieneusi in pigs was 37.69% (5175/12672). The prevalence of E. bieneusi in nursery pigs was 58.87% (588/946). In developing countries and Asia, the highest prevalence of E. bieneusi in pigs were 37.62% (4752/11645) and 40.14% (4715/11345), respectively. Moreover, humans and pigs have been found to be infected with the same genotype of E. bieneusi in some cases, as evidenced by the consolidation of genotype information. The results showed that pigs are susceptible to E. bieneusi during the nursery period. The prevalence of E. bieneusi is high in developing countries, and its genotype prevalence varies in each country. Thus, it is essential to strengthen the health inspection of vulnerable groups and customs quarantine inspection.

Unveiling the pathogenesis and therapeutic approaches for diabetic nephropathy: insights from panvascular diseases.

Diabetic nephropathy (DN) represents a significant microvascular complication in diabetes, entailing intricate molecular pathways and mechanisms associated with cardiorenal vascular diseases. Prolonged hyperglycemia induces renal endothelial dysfunction and damage via metabolic abnormalities, inflammation, and oxidative stress, thereby compromising hemodynamics. Concurrently, fibrotic and sclerotic alterations exacerbate glomerular and tubular injuries. At a macro level, reciprocal communication between the renal microvasculature and systemic circulation establishes a pernicious cycle propelling disease progression. The current management approach emphasizes rigorous control of glycemic levels and blood pressure, with renin-angiotensin system blockade conferring renoprotection. Novel antidiabetic agents exhibit renoprotective effects, potentially mediated through endothelial modulation. Nonetheless, emerging therapies present novel avenues for enhancing patient outcomes and alleviating the disease burden. A precision-based approach, coupled with a comprehensive strategy addressing global vascular risk, will be pivotal in mitigating the cardiorenal burden associated with diabetes.

Cross-domain dynamics: How geopolitical and climate policy uncertainties shape tourism patterns in the United States

Predicting tourism demand is crucial for policymakers and stakeholders in the tourism industry, enabling them to enhance promotional strategies, optimize marketing efforts, align investments, and achieve operational efficiency. While existing research has highlighted the negative impact of global risk factors such as geopolitical risks, economic policy uncertainty, and climate changes on tourism demand, the specific influence of climate policy changes and their differential impact on tourist arrivals has been less explored. Addressing this gap, our study employs bivariate, multiple, and partial wavelet methods to analyze the differential impact of climate policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk on tourism arrivals in the United States. Utilizing recent monthly data from January 1996 to August 2022, we uncover significant time-frequency varying dependencies between these factors and tourism demand. Our causality analysis reveals that both geopolitical risk and climate policy uncertainty are key determinants of tourism demand in the U.S. Furthermore, the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag model corroborates the findings of the wavelet analysis, highlighting asymmetrical interactions in the long run. These findings offer valuable insights and have significant implications for policymakers and industry stakeholders, suggesting the need for adaptive and responsive tourism strategies that consider the evolving landscape of geopolitical and climate policy uncertainties.

ОСНОВНЫЕ НАПРАВЛЕНИЯ И ОСОБЕННОСТИ ФУНКЦИОНИРО-ВАНИЯ И РАЗВИТИЯ ОБОРОННО-ПРОМЫШЛЕННОГО КОМ-ПЛЕКСА РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ В УСЛОВИЯХ ВОЗРАСТА-НИЯ ГЛОБАЛЬНЫХ РИСКОВ

The article examines the modern composition of the Russian military-industrial complex (DIC). A structural and logical diagram of its participation in increasing the efficiency of foreign trade activities and in the innovative development of the country's economy has been developed. The indicators of exports of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Federation on the world market for military products in 2012–2022 are given in value terms. The patterns and features of the development and functioning of the defense industry as a multifunctional macrosystem of military-industrial production are revealed, the need for their com-prehensive consideration in the development and implementation of strategies, programs and plans for state military-industrial construction. The main features and directions of development of the defense industry in the context of increasing global risks are revealed. The conclusions summarize the research results and pro-pose their use in further scientific research into the issues of defense industry and in the educational process of higher education.

Urban resilience assessment from the perspective of cross-media carbon metabolism

With the accelerating pace of globalization, uncertainty and unknown risks within open and complex urban systems increase with the occurrence of problems such as the conflict between humans and natural land use, water scarcity, and the continuing loss of biodiversity. Thus, the improvement of urban resilience has emerged as an important issue in the context of global urbanization. However, a knowledge gap remains in its evaluation from the perspective of systematic resource/element metabolic processes. To understand the urban resilience response mechanism better and depict metabolic processes systematically, an urban resilience assessment framework of “robustness-adaptability-restorability-coordination” based on the cross-media carbon metabolism network model was established. Principles of material flow analysis and ecological network analysis were applied to examine the urban resilience of Guangzhou, China, from 2010 to 2020. Results showed the urban resilience level decreased from a carbon metabolism perspective during the study period. This was reflected in an overall decline in system robustness and restorability, relatively unchanged adaptability, and a non-beneficial coordination relationship. Recommendations such as regulating key sectors (e.g., agriculture and construction) were proposed to improve urban resilience. This research will bring a new insight into future urban resilience assessment and contribute the urban sustainable development.

Antimicrobial Potency of Fmoc-Phe-Phe Dipeptide Hydrogels with Encapsulated Porphyrin Chromophores Is a Promising Alternative in Antimicrobial Resistance.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a significant global health risk as a consequence of misuse of antibiotics. Owing to the increasing antimicrobial resistance, it became imperative to develop novel molecules and materials with antimicrobial properties. Porphyrins and metalloporphyrins are compounds which present antimicrobial properties especially after irradiation. As a consequence, porphyrinoids have recently been utilized as antimicrobial agents in antimicrobial photodynamic inactivation in bacteria and other microorganisms. Herein, we report the encapsulation of porphyrins into peptide hydrogels which serve as delivery vehicles. We selected the self-assembling Fmoc-Phe-Phe dipeptide, a potent gelator, as a scaffold due to its previously reported biocompatibility and three different water-soluble porphyrins as photosensitizers. We evaluated the structural, mechanical and in vitro degradation properties of these hydrogels, their interaction with NIH3T3 mouse skin fibroblasts, and we assessed their antimicrobial efficacy against Gram-positive Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) and Gram-negative Escherichia coli (E. coli) bacteria. We found out that the hydrogels are cytocompatible and display antimicrobial efficiency against both strains with the zinc porphyrins being more efficient. Therefore, these hydrogels present a promising alternative for combating bacterial infections in the face of growing AMR concerns.

An Emerging Role of Micro- and Nanoplastics in Vascular Diseases.

Vascular diseases are the leading causes of death worldwide, and they are attributable to multiple pathologies, such as atherosclerosis, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Exposure to various environmental contaminants is associated with the development of various diseases, including vascular diseases. Among environmental contaminants, micro- and nanoplastics have gained attention as global environmental risk factors that threaten human health. Recently, extensive research has been conducted on the effects of micro- and nanoplastics on various human diseases, including vascular diseases. In this review, we highlight the effects of micro- and nanoplastics on vascular diseases.

Efficacy of yellow gypsum application on mitigating arsenic bioavailability in groundnut and Boro-rice grown under arsenic contaminated soil

Agricultural soils naturally enriched with Arsenic (As) represent a significant global human health risk. In the present investigation, a series of pot experiments were conducted to study the efficacy of three levels of Yellow Gypsum (YG) application on bioavailability of As to kharif groundnut followed by boro-rice grown under 17 different levels of soil As contamination for two consecutive years. The results revealed that application of YG @ 60 kg ha−1 effectuated the lowest soil As content and the highest percent decline in soil extractable As at pegging (9.42 mg kg−1 and 9.81%) and harvesting (8.81 mg kg−1 and 11.85%) in groundnut, maximum tillering (7.52 mg kg−1 and 16.95%) and harvesting (6.77 mg kg−1 and 19.85%) in boro-rice respectively. It was also observed that irrespective of its level, the extractable As content of soil decreased significantly (P < 0.05) with increasing dosage of YG. Increase in YG dose effectuated a significant (P < 0.05) increasing trend and increase in As content in soil indicated a decreasing trend of Ca:As, Fe:As and S:As ratios which pointed out the potentiality of YG for reducing As bio-availability in contaminated soils and thus could be a good option for mitigating the risk of As contamination in food chain.

Conservation status of the blind mole rat populations in Hungary (Rodentia: Spalacinae: Nannospalax) revisited.

Regular reviews of long-term research and conservation programs are useful sources of information for future directions in science and for the assessment of current conservation status of taxa. In this paper, we compiled all available data from the last 10years related to Hungarian blind mole rat populations and assessed this information according to the following main themes: systematics, distribution and threats, and conservation actions. Based on the most recent information, national and global risk assessments are provided for the three species of Nannospalax (N. montanosyrmiensis, N. hungaricus and N. syrmiensis), currently accepted as part of the Hungarian fauna.

Macau hotel industry’s response to global shocks

This study examines the Macau hotel industry’s response to global shocks using vector autoregression analysis. According to the findings, the hotel occupancy rate reacts negatively to a one-standard-deviation shock in global geopolitical risk. However, this reaction decreases after the second period and completely loses its effect after the fourth period. Hotel occupancy rate responds weakly and short term negatively to the shock of global economic policy uncertainty. The hotel industry reacts short term, weakly, and positively to a shock in US monetary policy uncertainty. According to the variance decomposition results, at the end of the tenth term (long-term), 96.25% of the change in hotel occupancy rates is explained by their own dynamics. The rest is 3.00% geopolitical risk, 0.5% US monetary policy uncertainty, and 0.25% economic policy uncertainty.

Is there a role for earlier use of combination therapy?

As the global population ages and cardiovascular risk factors rise, we can expect a continued increase in atherosclerotic disease. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) reduction is a cornerstone of cardiovascular risk reduction with strong, causal evidence indicating that the greatest benefit is derived from early and large decreases in LDL-C. Despite the adoption of statins as the backbone of lipid-therapy regimens, numerous studies and registry analyses reveal our collective inability to achieve LDL-C goals in high-risk patients. Combination therapy with ezetimibe has been shown to result in statistically significant decreases in LDL-C level, atheroma volume, and cardiovascular adverse event rates. A major barrier to implementing an upfront combination therapy approach is the perceived side effects from therapeutic agents although multiple studies show that a therapeutic patient-physician relationship could overcome this issue. Novel agents such as PCSK-9 inhibitors, bempedoic acid, and inclisiran have the potential to achieve similar outcomes although additional research is needed regarding the cost effectiveness of these approaches. Despite these hurdles, there is a role for the newer agents early in the disease course of high-risk patients such as those with markedly elevated LDL-C >190 mg/dL and FH.The implementation of upfront combination therapy, especially in high-risk patients, will decrease clinical inertia while allowing for earlier consideration of newer, effective agents to decrease cardiovascular burden.

Comparable Toxicity of Surface-Modified TiO2 Nanoparticles: An In Vivo Experimental Study on Reproductive Toxicity in Rats.

Nanoparticles (NPs), a distinct class of particles ranging in size from 1 to 100 nm, are one of the most promising technologies of the 21st century, and titanium dioxide NPs (TiO2 NPs) are among the most widely produced and used NPs globally. The increased application of TiO2 NPs raises concerns regarding their global safety and risks of exposure. Many animal studies have reported the accumulation of TiO2 NPs in female reproductive organs; however, evidence of the resultant toxicity remains ambiguous. Since the surface area and chemical modifications of NPs can significantly change their cytotoxicity, we aimed to compare the toxic effects of pristine TiO2 powder with surface-modified TiO2 powders with salicylic acid (TiO2/SA) and 5-aminosalicylic acid (TiO2/5-ASA) on the ovaries, oviducts, and uterus on the 14th day following acute oral treatment. The results, based on alterations in food and water intake, body mass, organ-to-body mass ratio, hormonal status, histological features of tissues of interest, and antioxidant parameters, suggest that the modification with 5-ASA can mitigate some of the observed toxic effects of TiO2 powder and encourage future investigations to create NPs that can potentially reduce the harmful effects of TiO2 NPs while preserving their positive impacts.

Using global datasets to estimate flood exposure at the city scale: an evaluation in Addis Ababa

Introduction: Cities located in lower income countries are global flood risk hotspots. Assessment and management of these risks forms a key part of global climate adaptation efforts. City scale flood risk assessments necessitate flood hazard information, which is challenging to obtain in these localities because of data quality/scarcity issues, and the complex multi-source nature of urban flood dynamics. A growing array of global datasets provide an attractive means of closing these data gaps, but their suitability for this context remains relatively unknown.Methods: Here, we test the use of relevant global terrain, rainfall, and flood hazard data products in a flood hazard and exposure assessment framework covering Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. To conduct the tests, we first developed a city scale rain-on-grid hydrodynamic flood model based on local data and used the model results to identify buildings exposed to flooding. We then observed how the results of this flood exposure assessment changed when each of the global datasets are used in turn to drive the hydrodynamic model in place of its local counterpart.Results and discussion: Results are evaluated in terms of both the total number of exposed buildings, and the spatial distribution of exposure across Addis Ababa. Our results show that of the datasets tested, the FABDEM global terrain and the PXR global rainfall data products provide the most promise for use at the city scale in lower income countries.

Towards sustainable transportation: A case study analysis of climate-responsive strategies in a developing nation

According to the Global Climate Risk Index, Pakistan is the fifth most vulnerable nation in the world to climate change. The growing phenomena of climate change and global warming have increased on a worldwide level. To combat the effects of climate change, a transition to a sustainable transportation system is essential. Developed countries have evaluated the costs and benefits of such a transition. However, developing countries like Pakistan have rarely investigated this matter thoroughly. So, in this context, this paper is a case study analyzing the transport sector of Punjab-Pakistan to achieve some targets for sustainable transportation. The analysis is carried out by using the energy model of the Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) from 2019 to 2050. Three scenarios are made, i.e., Business as Usual Scenario (BAUS) following the current policies, Efficient Combustion Scenario (ECS), and Electrical Vehicle Scenario (EVS) to figure out environmental and social costs. It concluded that by 2050, the ECS and EVS will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 21.6 and 18.5 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, compared to the Business-as-Usual Scenario. These savings in terms of social cost will be $ 157.1 million in the Efficient Combustion Scenario and $ 134.6 million in the Electric Vehicle Scenario. This research may help find suitable policy decisions at the provincial level to enhance sustainability for increasing the share of electric vehicles in Punjab, and the research results may be replicated for the whole country and South Asia.

Sudden Sensorineural Hearing Loss after COVID-19 Vaccination: A Review of the Available Evidence through the Prism of Causality Assessment.

Sudden sensorineural hearing loss (SSNHL), a rare audiological condition that accounts for 1% of all cases of sensorineural hearing loss, can cause permanent hearing damage. Soon after the launch of global COVID-19 vaccination campaigns, the World Health Organization released a signal detection about SSNHL cases following administration of various COVID-19 vaccines. Post-marketing studies have been conducted in different countries using either pharmacovigilance or medico-administrative databases to investigate SSNHL as a potential adverse effect of COVID-19 vaccines. Here, we examine the advantages and limitations of each type of post-marketing study available. While pharmacoepidemiological studies highlight the potential association between drug exposure and the event, pharmacovigilance approaches enable causality assessment. The latter objective can only be achieved if an expert evaluation is provided using internationally validated diagnostic criteria. For a rare adverse event such as SSNHL, case information and quantification of hearing loss are mandatory for assessing seriousness, severity, delay onset, differential diagnoses, corrective treatment, recovery, as well as functional sequelae. Appropriate methodology should be adopted depending on whether the target objective is to assess a global or individual risk.

For the Good of the Globe: Moral Reasons for States to Mitigate Global Catastrophic Biological Risks.

Actions to prepare for and prevent pandemics are a common topic for bioethical analysis. However, little attention has been paid to global catastrophic biological risks more broadly, including pandemics with artificial origins, the creation of agents for biological warfare, and harmful outcomes of human genome editing. What's more, international policy discussions often focus on economic arguments for state action, ignoring a key potential set of reasons for states to mitigate global catastrophic biological risks: moral reasons. In this paper, I frame the mitigation of such risks as a global public good, and I explore three possible categories of moral reasons that might motivate states to provide this global public good: nationalism, cosmopolitanism, and interstate obligations. Whilst there are strong objections to moral nationalism as a reason for states to act, moral cosmopolitanism may provide a broad reason which is further supplemented for individual states through the elaboration of interstate moral obligations. The obligations I consider are moral leadership, fairness, and reciprocity. Moral reasons for individual states action may more effectively or more appropriately motivate states to mitigate global catastrophic biological risks.

Lipid-Lowering and Antioxidant Effects of Self-Assembled Astaxanthin-Anthocyanin Nanoparticles on High-Fat Caenorhabditis elegans.

Obesity has become a serious global public health risk threatening millions of people. In this study, the astaxanthin-anthocyanin nanoparticles (AXT-ACN NPs) were used to investigate their effects on the lipid accumulation and antioxidative capacity of the high-sugar-diet-induced high-fat Caenorhabditis elegans (C. elegans). It can be found that the lifespan, motility, and reproductive capacity of the high-fat C. elegans were significantly decreased compared to the normal nematodes in the control group. However, treatment of high-fat C. elegans with AXT-ACN NPs resulted in a prolonged lifespan of 35 days, improved motility, and a 22.06% increase in total spawn production of the nematodes. Furthermore, AXT-ACN NPs were found to effectively extend the lifespan of high-fat C. elegans under heat and oxidative stress conditions. Oil-red O staining results also demonstrated that AXT-ACN NPs have a remarkable effect on reducing the fat accumulation in nematodes, compared with pure astaxanthin and anthocyanin nanoparticles. Additionally, AXT-ACN NPs can significantly decrease the accumulation of lipofuscin and the level of reactive oxygen species (ROS). The activities of antioxidant-related enzymes in nematodes were further measured, which revealed that the AXT-ACN NPs could increase the activities of catalase (CAT), superoxidase dismutase (SOD), and glutathione peroxidase (GSH-Px), and decrease the malondialdehyde (MDA) content. The astaxanthin and anthocyanin in AXT-ACN NPs showed sound synergistic antioxidation and lipid-lowering effects, making them potential components in functional foods.

Right to health during COVID-19 pandemic: A sociological reading on global risk society and colonial sociability

The COVID-19 pandemic, because of its global impact in terms of social, health and economic consequences, activation of expertise, and production of public policies and rhetoric, constitutes a privileged object of analysis for sociology, with particular reference to the understanding of social transformations related to the modernization process. The debate on second modernity and global risk society undoubtedly offers effective keys for the sociological analysis of the pandemic. The essay, also in the light of some data on the spread of contagion and deaths due to COVID-19, with reference to specific contexts such as Brazil and the United States of America, offers a critical reading of the global risk society thesis starting from the post-colonial and decolonial debate. In particular, within an emancipatory social science perspective, the elements of inequality and exclusion that are operating as decisive factors for the sociological understanding of the pandemic phenomenon are brought into focus. To this end, reflections on the forms of inequality at the level of the modern world-economy, on the permanence of structures of hegemony and subalternity based on the “coloniality of power” and on the action of forms of “colonial sociability” and “territorial stigmatization” offer a fertile ground of debate for the analysis and understanding of the unequal consequences of the pandemic and the struggles for right to health. Este artículo profundiza en el derecho a la salud durante la pandemia de COVID-19, analizando su impacto en términos de desigualdades sociales. La primera sección introduce conceptos extraídos del enfoque de la sociedad de riesgo global, señalando algunas de sus limitaciones para un análisis efectivo de las formas de exclusión social durante la pandemia. La principal afirmación es que la lógica de las desigualdades surgidas en la pandemia de COVID-19 puede ser interpretada más eficazmente a la luz de la sociología poscolonial y decolonial, con referencia a los conceptos de colonialidad del poder (Quijano) y, concretamente, de sociabilidad colonial (Santos). El camino propuesto es poner en diálogo dichos conceptos junto con los de marginalidad avanzada y estigmatización territorial (Wacquant). Dichos enfoques son útiles para comprender algunos datos sobre la propagación de contagios y muertes por COVID-19 en los contextos de Brasil y Estados Unidos de América, contagios y muertes que han afectado de manera especialmente crítica a territorios concretos de marginalidad avanzada y expuestos a procesos de estigmatización. Analizando caminos concretos para la desestigmatización territorial, el artículo también reflexiona sobre la tarea emancipadora de un análisis sociológico de las desigualdades en la era de la pandemia de la COVID-19.