Greater Power Research Articles

Peru’s leadership in the Lima Group: emergence and failure (2015–2021)

This research seeks to understand the factors that enabled Peru, a medium-sized country in Latin America, to take on a leadership role in the creation and development of the Lima Group—a multilateral mechanism whose main objective was to find a resolution to the democratic crisis in Venezuela—as well as the subsequent failure of this leadership. Using the analytical tools provided by Neoclassical Realism, this study argues that Peru’s leadership was made possible not only by the growing importance of the Venezuelan crisis on the international agenda since 2015 but also by changes in regional and global power dynamics. These shifts allowed a country like Peru to exercise such leadership and garner greater interest from the United States. Additionally, the presence of a favorable domestic political climate and clear national interests led the Peruvian government to view this leadership as beneficial, not only for the region but also for Peru itself. However, despite the Venezuelan crisis remaining on the international agenda due to Nicolás Maduro’s continued hold on power, the hardening of the U.S. stance on Venezuela and political changes at the regional level since 2018 fractured the Lima Group and undermined Peru’s leadership. Moreover, domestically, political changes led to heightened instability, weakening Peru’s external position. Finally, the surge in Venezuelan migration and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic shifted the priorities of Peru’s foreign policy, diminishing its focus on the Venezuelan crisis and contributing to the failure of its leadership.

Demystifying the dynamics of China’s overseas image with a large-scale social media dataset

ABSTRACT The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a noticeable decline in global attitudes toward China. It remains unclear whether this negative shift is a temporary phenomenon linked to the pandemic or a reflection of a more enduring trend in China’s overseas image. By analyzing approximately 1.7 billion representative English-language tweets worldwide from 2012 to 2018, this research investigates popular attitudes toward China using word embedding models. The findings indicate a general decline in global attitudes toward China, particularly in relation to its political system. At the same time, however, China has increasingly been recognized as an economic powerhouse, a rising global power, and a more eco-friendly society.

The ‘China’s dream’ - the grand strategy of transforming China into a global Maritime power

The ‘China’s dream’ - the grand strategy of transforming China into a global Maritime power

The Laws of War and Public Support for Foreign Combatants

Abstract Are publics in great power democracies more likely to approve of foreign armed combatants that comply with international humanitarian law (IHL)? There is a wealth of evidence that armed combatants with an incentive to seek the support of outside compliance constituencies are more likely to adhere to IHL. Yet a key mechanism underlying these claims—that people in great power democracies are more likely to support armed combatants that comply with IHL—has not been directly tested. We address this question using a series of experiments embedded in nationally representative surveys conducted in three democracies that have frequently been involved in foreign interventions: France, the United Kingdom, and the United States. We find that belligerents—both governments and rebels—that comply with the laws of war are significantly more likely to garner support from publics in likely intervening countries compared to those who do not comply. In all three countries, compliance with international law caused greater approval of armed combatants as well as greater support for economic or military intervention (although support for military intervention remained relatively low in the treatment groups). This lends support to arguments that, to the extent combatants seek support from outside audiences, this can serve as a mechanism by which international law constrains armed combat.

The Impact of Major Powers on Security Council Decisions

The research examines the impact of major powers on the work of the Security Council and its impact on international politics. The research emphasizes that the five permanent members of the Council (the United States, Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom) have veto power, which allows them to prevent any decision even if it has the support of the majority. Major Powers utilize this power strategically to direct international policies according to their interests, which leads to influencing decisions related to international peace and security. The research also identifies how geopolitical balances and strategic interests can sometimes explain the lack of consensus in the Council’s decisions. In addition, the research discusses criticisms of the present structure of the Security Council. It shows reform calls aimed at improving international representation and reducing the influence of major powers to ensure greater effectiveness and justice in dealing with global crises.

It pays to be generous: How cooptation transforms power rivalries

ABSTRACT In some cases, hegemonic powers manage to turn dissatisfied (former) rivals into satisfied partners by means of cooptation. Yet, in other cases, similar cooptation attempts result in failure. Why? We argue that the generosity of the hegemon’s cooptation offer is of utmost importance for whether cooptation succeeds or fails to overcome the rivalry with coopted great powers. When hegemonic powers offer a generous cooptation deal, a virtuous circle sets in that may socialize great power rivals into the order dominated by the hegemon. When, by contrast, the cooptation offer is not generous, a vicious circle is likely to develop, which may even exacerbate the great power rivalry. To assess the empirical plausibility of this socialization-by-cooptation theory, we study the cooptation of Germany after World War II, the cooptation of Russia after the Cold War, and the contemporary cooptation of China into the international financial system.

Investments in green hydrogen as a flexibility source for the European power system by 2050: Does it pay off?

The European Union aims to deploy a high share of renewable energy sources in Europe’s power system by 2050. Large-scale intermittent wind and solar power production requires flexibility to ensure an adequate supply–demand balance. Green hydrogen (GH) can increase power systems’ flexibility and decrease renewable energy production’s curtailment. However, investing in GH is costly and dependent on electricity prices, which are important for operational costs in electrolysis. Moreover, the use of GH for power system flexibility might not be economically viable if there is no hydrogen demand from the hydrogen market. If so, questions would arise as to, what would be the incentives to introduce GH as a source of flexibility in the power system, and how would electrolyzer costs, hydrogen demand, and other factors affect the economic viability of GH usage for power system flexibility. The paper implements a European power system model formulated as a stochastic program to address these questions. The authors use the model to compare various instances with hydrogen in the power system to a no-hydrogen instance. The results indicate that by 2050 deployment of approximately 140 GW of GH will pay off investments and make the technology economically viable. We find that the price of hydrogen is estimated to be around €30/MWh.

Global perspectives on platforms and cultural production

Research on platforms and cultural production is dominated by studies that take the Anglo-American world and Northwestern Europe as their main points of reference. Central concepts in the field, consequently, bear the imprint of Western institutions, cultural practices, and ideals. Critically responding to this state of affairs, this opening essay of the special issue on Global Perspectives on Platforms and Cultural Production, consisting of 20 articles, aims to: 1) challenge universalism, 2) provincialize the US, and 3) multiply our frames of reference. Pursuing these objectives, we bring together ideas from postcolonial and decolonial theory and platform studies in a systematic research program. This global perspectives program allows us to: denaturalize and rethink dominant concepts and ideas through research from around the globe; explicitly thematize and examine the global power relations that structure platform economies; and critically interrogate the knowledge production about these economies.

Mean global field power is reduced in infantile epileptic spasms syndrome after response to vigabatrin

PurposeInfantile epileptic spasms syndrome (IESS) is associated with abnormal neuronal networks during a critical period of synaptogenesis and brain plasticity. Hypsarrhythmia is a visual EEG biomarker used to diagnose IESS, assess response to treatment, and monitor relapse. Computational EEG biomarkers hold promise in providing unbiased, reliable, and objective criteria for clinical management. We hypothesized that computational and visual EEG biomarkers of IESS would correlate after treatment with vigabatrin and that these responses might differ between responders and non-responders.MethodsA retrospective analysis was conducted at a single center, involving children with IESS at initial diagnosis and following first-line treatment with vigabatrin. Visual EEG biomarkers of hypsarrhythmia were compared with computational EEG biomarkers, including spike and spike fast-oscillation source coherence, spectral power, and mean global field power, using retrospective analysis of EEG recorded at initial diagnosis and after vigabatrin treatment. Responders and non-responders were compared based on the characteristics of their follow-up EEGs.ResultsIn this pilot study, we observed a reduction in the EEG biomarker of hypsarrhythmia/modified hypsarrhythmia from 20/20 (100%) cases at the initial diagnosis to 9/20 (45%) cases after treatment with vigabatrin, indicating a 55% (11/20) responder rate. No significant difference in spike frequency was observed after treatment (p = 0.104). We observed no significant differences after treatment with vigabatrin in the computational EEG biomarkers that we assessed, including spike source coherence at 90% (p = 0.983), spike source coherence lag range (p > 0.999), spike gamma source coherence at 90% (p = 0.177), spike gamma source coherence lag range (p > 0.999), spectral power (0.642), or mean global field power (0.932). However, when follow-up EEGs were compared, there was a significant difference in mean global field power (p = 0.038) between vigabatrin responders and non-responders. In contrast, no such difference was observed for spike source coherence at 90% (p = 0.285), spike course coherence lag range (p = 0.819), spike gamma source coherence at 90% (p = 0.205), spike gamma source coherence lag range (p > 0.999), or spectral power (p = 0.445). Finally, our treated group did not differ significantly from healthy controls at initial diagnosis or follow-up in terms of spectral power (p = 0.420) or mean global field power (0.127).ConclusionIn this pilot study, we show that mean global field power is a computational EEG biomarker that is significantly reduced in IESS after treatment with vigabatrin. Although computational EEG biomarkers of network connectivity using spike source coherence appear to be a promising tool, future studies should further explore their potential for assessing treatment responses in IESS.

U.S.–China Competition: A Power Transition Perspective

U.S.–China competition has been widely viewed as the most important feature of world politics that will shape the emerging international order. Whereas Washington increasingly sees Beijing as the sole great power with the intent and capabilities to dismantle the U.S.-led liberal order, Beijing views Washington’s military buildup and new partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region as the latest U.S. attempt to contain and encircle China. This paper adopts a power transition perspective to compare the advantages and disadvantages of both powers, using six parameters to measure their relative national strength. In doing so, the authors try to update and modernize A.F.K. Organski’s theory in the 21st century, applying it to the most consequential relationship of our time.

Making sense of the interaction between geopolitics and middle-technology trap: evidence from China’s catching-up CNC machine tool industry

This study proposes a framework to analyze the interaction between geopolitics and the Middle-Technology Trap, drawing on evidence from China's CNC machine-tool industry. Qualitative methods such as interviews have been utilized to identify geopolitical variables that have driven the development of the Chinese CNC machine tools industry. To explore the combined effects of the Middle-Technology Trap and the intense competition between China and the West, this article focuses on an industry that has been significantly influenced by the economic decoupling between China and the US, a phenomenon deeply rooted in recent great power competition. While several industries may illustrate the new status quo of the Middle-Technology Trap, the CNC machine-tool industry is particularly exemplary due to its close interrelation with geopolitics. Accordingly, this study presents a catch-up case that incorporates technology-oriented aspects and factors from strategic competition, underlining three scenarios that geopolitics could influence the result of addresing the Middle-Technology Trap, respectively technological decoupling, the relocation of supply chain, and industrial policy.

The United States, Sweden, and the military intervention in Libya: explaining the similar foreign policy responses of a great power and a small state

The United States, Sweden, and the military intervention in Libya: explaining the similar foreign policy responses of a great power and a small state

The Great Powers Competition and Increasing Entropy in the Local Media Across Africa and Asia

The Great Powers Competition and Increasing Entropy in the Local Media Across Africa and Asia

Cybersecurity and the Future of International Relations

This research examines the growing influence of cybersecurity on international relations, focusing on how cyber threats, digital espionage, and cyber warfare are transforming state sovereignty, diplomacy, and global security. With the rise of state-sponsored cyberattacks and the increasing involvement of non-state actors, cybersecurity has become a central issue in the global power dynamics between major nation-states and international organizations. The study analyzes high-profile cyber incidents, such as the SolarWinds and Stuxnet attacks, and investigates their geopolitical implications, including how they have reshaped cyber norms and governance strategies. Through a comparative analysis of national cybersecurity strategies in countries like the U.S., China, and the EU, this research assesses the effectiveness of current international treaties, such as the Budapest Convention on Cybercrime, and multilateral efforts to establish cybersecurity norms. Preliminary findings suggest that cybersecurity has evolved into a strategic tool in global competition, with cyberattacks being used for coercion and disruption. Moreover, the rise of cyber espionage has heightened the stakes in digital diplomacy, leading to the establishment of specialized cyber units within foreign ministries. This study advocates for the development of comprehensive international treaties focused on cyber governance, with an emphasis on conflict prevention, cyber deterrence, and collective defense mechanisms. Additionally, it calls for greater involvement of multilateral organizations, such as the United Nations and NATO, in creating transparent and accountable frameworks for state-sponsored cyber activities. The research underscores the urgent need for cohesive global governance models to address the complex challenges posed by cybersecurity in shaping the future of international relations.

Russia in the politics of South Caucasus countries after 2022

The research question is how national governments and civil societies reflect Russian involvement in the decision-making process of South Caucasus countries in 2022–2024? The structure of the research includes two sections: 1) Strategic interests of the countries of the South Caucasus and Russia in 2022–2024; 2) Changing the role of Russia in the South Caucasus in 2022–2024. In result of the research it was revealed that opting for a policy of normalization Georgia cannot renounce its territory (Abkhazia and South Ossetia). Azerbaijan has been the most consistent among the Caucasian countries in challenging Russian hegemony in the region. This trend intensified after the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine: Azerbaijan increased humanitarian aid to Ukraine; pro-Ukrainian sympathies in Azerbaijani society were expressed through a number of leading media outlets that openly supported Kyiv. Baku unilaterally reviewed the ceasefire agreement - 2020, mediated by Russia. Amid the international isolation of the Kremlin, Azerbaijan began to play a much larger role for Russia. Baku is important link in the chain of diplomatic and economic ties of Putin's regime. Russia tries to maintain productive relations with Baku, even at the expense of its long-time ally Armenia. Yerevan revises its foreign policy, favouring a pro-Western vector. In Yerevan, the pro-Russian opposition organized rallies against the current government. Moscow and Baku both gained mutual benefits: Russia destabilized the situation in Armenia, and Azerbaijan restored its territorial integrity. However, these actions of Moscow struck at its influence in the region, marginalizing Russia and its "guarantees." The Caucasus provides a clear example of Russia's inability to continue playing the role of a major power: it simply lacks the strength and means.

Complex cooptation: How regime complexity affects the stability of cooptation bargains—the case of China and the World Bank

ABSTRACT How do variations in regime complexity affect the overall stability of cooptation bargains amidst shifting great power rivalries? Increased complexity creates opportunities for institutional bargaining during cooptation deal negotiations, enabling cooptees to explore outside-options, engage in regime-shifting and countervailing institutional creation. While great power dynamics influence actors’ decisions regarding cooptation deals, regime complexity shapes their ability to employ cross-institutional strategies, affecting deal stability. Focusing on China's cooptation deal with the World Bank since 1980, we find that during the Cold War, the deal remained stable due to China's limited outside-options and significant power asymmetry with the US. Post-Cold War, increased complexity offered China with only limited outside-options, while it couldn't effectively engage in regime-shifting. The establishment of the AIIB, however, threatens the stability of the cooptation deal made in World Bank by providing China with genuine orum-shopping and regime-shifting opportunities. This analysis highlights how regime complexity and power dynamics interact to affect cooptation bargain stability amid evolving global rivalries.

Deep predictive data representation model control for photovoltaic maximum power point tracking under partial shading conditions

As deep learning progresses in recent years, deep neural networks (DNNs) have penetrated applications in various industries. The global maximum power point (GMPP) tracking issue exists in photovoltaic (PV) systems. This study proposes a deep predictive data representation model control (PDRC)-based PV GMPP tracking method. The PDRC approach establishes a data representation control model centered on deep prediction by extracting the data features such as the current, voltage, and duty cycle of PV systems controllers on a time series basis. The proposed PDRC method can receive signals of voltage and current, then output duty cycle control signals. Thereby PDRC method can control PV output power to track GMPP efficiently. Finally, the proposed PDRC approach is evaluated with the perturbation observation method (P&O), the improved particle swarm algorithm (PSO-P&O), and the modified cuckoo algorithm (CS-P&O) to compare the PV GMPP tracking performance. In the simulation experiments, the PDRC approach increases the average tracking efficiency over the comparison algorithms by at least 7.729 % and decreases the average tracking time by at least 0.0155 s under partial shading conditions (PSCs). In the physical simulation validation, the proposed PDRC approach possesses minimal power perturbation and increases the average tracking efficiency over the comparison algorithms by at least 0.407 %.

Developing the industrial capacity for energy transitions: Resource formation for offshore wind in Europe

As energy transitions progress from formative to growth or acceleration phases, issues related to resource formation increase in importance. In this paper we address a type of resource formation that has received scant attention in the sustainability transitions literature to date: developing the industrial capacity to manufacture and deliver key complementary assets (i.e. components and services) to large energy projects. Such supply chain elements constitute a significant share of investment, are crucial for the upscaling of low-carbon technologies, and offer important job and value creation opportunities for different regions and countries. Empirically we study the build-up of industrial capacity to supply key complementary assets to the European offshore wind power market in the 2000–2019 period through three phases (formative, take-off, growth) of development. We provide explanations to observed spatio-temporal patterns of industrial capacity development by considering 1) industry life-cycle dynamics, 2) pre-existing assets and industrial relatedness, and 3) home market opportunities.

Study on Phase Change Materials’ Heat Transfer Characteristics of Medium Temperature Solar Energy Collection System

Within the next five years, renewable energy is expected to account for approximately 80% of the new global power generation capacity, with solar power contributing to more than half of this growth. However, the intermittent nature of solar energy remains a significant challenge to fully realizing its potential. Thus, efficient energy storage is crucial for optimizing the effectiveness and dependability of renewable energy. Phase-change materials (PCMs) can play an important role in solar energy storage due to their low cost and high volumetric energy storage density. The low thermal conductivity of PCMs restricts their use for energy storage, despite their immense potential. Hence, the primary goal of this study is to experimentally investigate the energy storage capacity of two blended phase-change materials (paraffin and barium hydroxide octahydrate) through integration with a medium-temperature solar heat collection system. The experimental findings reveal that the blended PCMs possess the highest cumulative charge fraction (0.59), energy capacity, and low energy loss compared to each PCM alone. Furthermore, the phase change storage tank achieves higher heat storage (27%) and exergy storage efficiency (18%) compared to the stored tank water without any PCMs. The blended PCMs enhanced their performance, exhibiting improved interaction and excellent thermal storage properties across a range of temperatures, offering an opportunity for the design of an energy-efficient, low-cost storage system.

Comprehensive Analysis of Improved Hunter–Prey Algorithms in MPPT for Photovoltaic Systems Under Complex Localized Shading Conditions

The Hunter–Prey Optimization (HPO) algorithm represents a novel population-based optimization approach renowned for its efficacy in addressing intricate problems and optimization challenges. Photovoltaic (PV) systems, characterized by multi-peaked shading conditions, often pose a challenge to conventional maximum power point tracking (MPPT) techniques in accurately identifying the global maximum power point. In this research, an MPPT control strategy grounded in an improved Hunter–Prey Optimization (IHPO) algorithm is proposed. Eight distinct shading scenarios are meticulously crafted to assess the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed MPPT method in capturing the maximum power point. A performance evaluation is conducted utilizing both MATLAB/simulation and an embedded system, alongside a comparative analysis with alternative power tracking methodologies, considering the diverse climatic conditions across different seasons. The simulation outcomes demonstrate the capability of the proposed control strategy in accurately tracking the global maximum power point, achieving a commendable efficiency of 100% across seven shading conditions, with a tracking response time of approximately 0.2 s. Verification results obtained from the experimental platform illustrate a tracking efficiency of 98.75% for the proposed method. Finally, the IHPO method’s output performance is evaluated on the StarSim Rapid Control Prototyping (RCP) platform, indicating a substantial enhancement in the tracking efficiency of the photovoltaic system while maintaining rapid response times.