Global Nuclear Order Research Articles

Gathering around a satellite image: Visual media cycles of the nuclear nonproliferation complex.

How have Western nongovernmental experts used remote sensing to make public knowledge about Iran's nuclear program? This article recounts several episodes in which experts and journalists congregated around satellite images to uncover hidden nuclear objects in Iran. Drawing from the theoretical tradition of co-production, I describe this recurrent collective experience as an imaginative exercise that can both coordinate and transform diverse communities of knowledge. I outline common temporal and thematic structures that define these episodes, and illuminate the role of commercial satellite imagery as material anchor that threads distributed imaginings together such that broadly-shared experience and sensibility can emerge. I argue that these collective imaginative practices have fomented civic-epistemic closure, not around affirmative nuclear facts or beliefs about Iran, but around a set of persistent questions about the 'possible military dimensions' of its nuclear past. I close by exploring the broader political effects of this form of recursive inquiry within the global nuclear order.

Contested Nuclear Sharing in Belgium: Domestic Political Dynamic for the Nuclear Weapons Ban

ABSTRACT The successful conclusion of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) has challenged the global nuclear order, but was dependent on bypassing the nuclear weapon states (NWS) and their allies. This has led critics to dismiss its practical value for nuclear disarmament. Proponents of the ban treaty, however, hope for a “transformative political dynamic” that delegitimizes nuclear weapons and leads to NWS and their allies joining the TPNW. This article contributes both conceptually and empirically to the discussion of this “transformative political dynamic”. It deals with the role of nuclear weapons for NATO membership and the strategies for legitimizing and delegitimizing nuclear weapons. The case study on Belgium analyzes the processes of coalition building and the discursive strategies related to Belgium’s nuclear role in NATO. The study shows that the exchange of symbolic arms control and disarmament initiatives for the approval of military budgets and the acquiescence to the claimed nuclear obligations of NATO membership stands on shaky ground.

Minilateralism and effective multilateralism in the global nuclear order

ABSTRACT Following the 2023 report of the United Nations High-Level Advisory Board on Effective Multilateralism, this paper addresses the relationship between minilateralism and multilateralism in the global nuclear order. The paper theorizes minilateralism as a relational concept and fluid praxis, introducing a typology of inside and outside minilateralism. It then traces and analyzes these types of minilateralism within global nuclear weapons governance from 1970 to 2020. The paper finds that how states pursue minilateralism is conditional on how they perceive the effectiveness and legitimacy of wider membership multilateral institutions in nuclear governance. How complementary minilateralism is to effective multilateralism comes down to how minilateral groupings are positioned relative to multilateral institutions, how willing and able they are to integrate their activities in those institutions, and whether they, in turn, are considered legitimate. The paper concludes with recommendations for how minilateralism can complement effective multilateralism in global nuclear weapons governance and beyond.

Complexity, depoliticisation, and African nuclear ordering agency: a meso-level exploration

The regional nuclear ordering terrain in Africa is increasingly complex, with proliferating and deepening institutional relationships to the institutions of the global nuclear order. Applying a ‘complexity lens’ to this regional institutional apparatus may therefore seem like an intuitive way to understand its role in global nuclear ordering at large, and Africa’s place within it. However, one important concern when thinking about complex multinational regimes is depoliticisation. This has been examined in contexts of global development as well as nuclear order and we show this as a key feature of meso nuclear ordering in Africa. A complexity lens is useful to analyse the characteristics of the African regional institutional terrain. However, a complexity lens can perpetuate this depoliticisation if it does not acknowledge the political thrusts which underlie conceptions of ‘order’ and ‘disorder’.

Russia, the Global South and the Mechanics of the Nuclear Order

Russia’s war against Ukraine has reverberated across the global nuclear order. The heightened tensions between Russia and Western states have paralysed and politicised processes in various multilateral nuclear forums and governance bodies, such as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the United Nations First Committee. The earthquake in procedure has further exacerbated frustrations with the state of the nuclear order, particularly among the non-nuclear-weapons states of the Global South. These states have long lamented insufficient progress towards nuclear disarmament, the prospects for which were rendered even more remote by the war. Russia, for its part, has pursued a dual strategy in multilateral nuclear diplomacy: it has undermined non-proliferation efforts and chipped away at trust in the legacy forums on the one hand, while leveraging them in pursuit of greater alignment with the Global South on the other. These dynamics have combined to drive the further fragmentation of the nuclear order in ways that, while taking time to fully play out, promise to be profound.

Nuclear-Powered Submarines and the Global Nuclear Order

The nuclear propulsion of submarines has never been raised as a source of controversy since the countries operating nuclear-powered submarines are only the five Nuclear-Weapon States recognized in the NPT, plus India, which is not a signatory to the NPT. However, with the advancement of the Brazilian nuclear-powered submarine program and the announcement that Australia will operate and develop nuclear-powered submarines, this issue has become a hot spot on the non-proliferation agenda. In this context, two questions arise: What are the perceptions of the main actors involved with the issue of nuclear energy use for the propulsion of submarines of Non-nuclear Weapon States? What are the impacts of these perceptions on the global nuclear order? This article argues that a new normative inequality would be in the formation process, in which there would be the “have” and “have-not” users of nuclear energy for the propulsion of submarines.

Влияние Индии на формирование многополярного ядерного порядка

India’s decision not to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty has led to its labelling as a state that is not fully aligned with the global nuclear order. This places it in the same category as other nuclear-armed countries outside these agreements, such as Israel, North Korea, and Pakistan. India’s nuclear weapons testing in 1998, followed by a similar move by Pakistan, has been viewed as a challenge to international security and the nuclear non-proliferation regime. This article aims to examine India’s stance on these treaties and its choice to become a nuclear-armed state in 1998 within the context of its efforts to influence the establishment of a fair global order that serves the interests of not only the major nuclear powers (USSR/Russia, Great Britain, China, the United States, and France) and their allies, but also the rest of the world. Delhi’s actions in the realm of nuclear arms control highlights the emerging multipolar world. Although India has refrained from actively participating in disarmament negotiations after the end of Cold War, its previous experiences remain relevant today. The breakdown of the U.S. – Russia nuclear arms control as well as crises over the nuclear non-proliferation and testing banning regimes have given weight to the arguments put forth by Indian leaders and diplomats. These arguments emphasize the urgency of reducing nuclear risks and exercising strategic restraint, including maintaining a moratorium on nuclear testing. Since 1998, India has adopted an approach different from its previous policy on various nuclear disarmament issues. This shift is evident in the country’s solidarity with other nuclear powers in opposing the 2021 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. However, India’s longstanding support for multipolarity in international security policy, particularly regarding nuclear weapons, remains unchanged.

Contending American Visions of North Korea: The Mission Civilisatrice versus Realpolitik

This article aims to situate US–DPRK relations in a broader historical and theoretical context, that is, part of the violent encounters between the West and the ‘Rest’ in modern times, to examine discursive causes of their animosity and devise preliminary solutions to usher in peace and reconciliation in the Korean Peninsula. Drawing on a postcolonial reading of the liberal internationalist project and the global nuclear order, as well as a reflexive realist critique of US foreign policy toward the rogue states, this research explores how two competing geopolitical discourses, the mission civilisatrice and realpolitik, have constructed the epistemological problématique of Washington’s approach to Pyongyang and contributed to internal tensions in it over time. After analyzing the historical trajectory of America’s contrasting understandings of the Korean question, I seek to offer their implications on the dramatic change in the bilateral relations in the Trump era. By interrogating Trump’s realist turn in grand strategy and its unexpected influence on the two Cold War enemies’ mini-détente in 2018–2020, this article asks how a genuine dialogue between the liberal, ‘civilized’ center and the illiberal, ‘barbarian’ periphery can be materialized in an alternative normative setting. In particular, I argue that Trump’s new realist trial posed a critical question on how to depart from old ontological assumptions that frame the dominant liberal internationalist/neoconservative approaches toward a more dialogical and equal negotiation and compromise. A peaceful resolution of the North Korean dilemma is inherently related to a larger reflexivist project that promotes a thorough interrogation of the self-righteous US identity and a great transformation of America’s imperialist monologue toward the Third World in general. Des visions américaines concurrentes de la Corée du Nord : Mission civilisatrice vs Realpolitik

Slouching Towards a Nuclear Gomorrah

The global nuclear order – encompassing measures to prevent nuclear war, slow the proliferation of nuclear weapons and manage peaceful nuclear technology – today faces pressures that threaten its very viability. Global cooperation to limit arms racing has all but ceased. Frustration with the failure of the nuclear powers to make progress towards disarmament has called into question the durability of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The mixture of incentives and penalties to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons is losing its potency. A new grand bargain, equal in creativity and ambition to the one that birthed the NPT, is needed. The United States must signal willingness to make significant concessions to achieve a fresh consensus on global nuclear policy with two objectives. The first one is the prevention of a new arms race among the nuclear powers and the cessation of further proliferation. The second is a recommitment to sharing peaceful nuclear technology as part of a worldwide campaign to combat the climate crisis.

Exploring ‘Accommodation’ to Understand the Behaviour of Rising Powers in the Global Nuclear Order: The Cases of India and Brazil

ABSTRACT First put forth by Hedley Bull in the 1970s, the notion of ‘accommodation’ is an often-neglected approach to understanding the role, rights and responsibilities of emerging nuclear powers from the Global South in the nuclear order. The existing literature looks at the avenues and conditions through which the institutions of the nuclear order grant accommodation. However, analysis of the demands raised by rising powers at various stages of the nuclear order's development is severely lacking. The cases of India and Brazil, two rising powers with advanced nuclear capabilities, highlight some of the demands of accommodation raised by these states during the early development of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) – a cornerstone agreement in the global nuclear architecture. Two important demands – namely, regional security considerations in the global system and the adoption of the principle of mutual obligations and responsibilities – have shaped these states’ behaviour vis-à-vis the NPT.

Approaches to the Transforming Global Nuclear Order: The Cases of Turkey, Brazil and South Africa

Uluslararası sistemde nükleer silahlanmanın çoğalmasını engellemek ve nihai olarak nükleer silahsızlanmanın gerçekleşmesini sağlamak amacıyla oluşturulan çeşitli mekanizmalar ve yapılar, devletlerin büyük çoğunlukla uyum sağladığı küresel bir nükleer düzenin oluşmasına yol açmıştır. Ancak, son dönemde küresel sistemde yaşanan gelişmelere ve birtakım unsurlara bağlı olarak bu düzenin zayıfladığı düşünülmektedir. Bu çalışmada, nükleer silaha sahip olmayan devletlerin söz konusu küresel düzene yönelik duruşları ve yaklaşımları incelenmiştir. Çalışmada, ilk olarak, düzen ve nükleer düzen kavramları açıklanmıştır. Daha sonra nükleer silaha sahip olmayan devletlerin mevcut nükleer düzene yönelik bakış açıları üç devlet üzerinden ele alınmıştır. Çalışmada örnek olarak incelenecek olan bu devletler Türkiye, Brezilya ve Güney Afrika’dır. Çalışmada, nükleer düzenin risk altında olduğu ve nükleer silaha sahip olmayan bu devletlerin her ne kadar benzer kategoride yer almış olsalar da zayıflayan nükleer düzene ve bu düzeni oluşturan yapılara karşı yaklaşımlarında nükleer tecrübelerine, beklentilerine ve güvenlik anlayışlarına bağlı olarak çeşitli farklılıklar görüldüğü sonucuna varılmıştır.

Book Review: Brazil in the Global Nuclear Order, 1945–2018 by Carlo Patti

Book Review: <i>Brazil in the Global Nuclear Order, 1945–2018</i> by Carlo Patti

GLOBAL NUCLEAR SECURITY: CURRENT POLICY EMPHASIS

The article presents an analysis of the understanding of global nuclear security in terms of political accents. The relevance is explained by the processes that are currently taking place all over the world, taking into account the military operations in Ukraine. In addition, the global nuclear order is changing, the climate is changing, your oil price volatility, and the increasing problem of energy security. This speaks of the relevance and importance of turning to the study of issues of the future use of nuclear energy. The nuclear future requires significant efforts to strengthen international organizations and the regulatory framework that governs global nuclear affairs. It was noted that nuclear security requires global solutions, networks of national measures, international legal agreements and voluntary initiatives that form the basis of a comprehensive and effective global security architecture. Without a comprehensive and effective architecture, the progress made by countries is diminishing and it will be difficult for countries to sustain progress forward. Today, the country's approaches to nuclear security are very different, creating the danger that small links have been created to get rid of terrorists, looking for the easiest route to weapons-grade nuclear material. Only a general system that holds all states accountable to the same standards can ensure this. All countries must effectively exercise their sovereign security over their nuclear materials and facilities to prevent an act of catastrophic nuclear terrorism and thus preserve the benefits of peaceful nuclear energy.

Challenging nuclearism: a humanitarian approach to reshape the global nuclear order

Journal Article Challenging nuclearism: a humanitarian approach to reshape the global nuclear order Get access Challenging nuclearism: a humanitarian approach to reshape the global nuclear order. By Marianne Hanson. Manchester: Manchester University Press. 2022. 280pp. £80.00. Isbn978 1 52616 509 1. Available as e-book. Rhys Crilley Rhys Crilley University of Glasgow, UK Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar International Affairs, Volume 99, Issue 3, May 2023, Pages 1329–1331, https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiad066 Published: 02 May 2023

The impact of the consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the global nuclear order

The impact of the consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the global nuclear order

NUCLEAR DETERRENCE AND NUCLEAR INTIMIDATION IN RUSSIA’S POLICY

Nuclear weapons play a key role in Russia’s security thinking. Concepts of the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons by the Russian Federation include both doctrinally defined nuclear deterrence and doctrinally indefinite nuclear intimidation. The latter has become a central element of the hybrid war waged by Russia. The failure to achieve the initial goals of Russian large-scale military aggression against Ukraine, which began on 24 February 2022, has affected Russia’s nuclear policy. The criteria for the use of nuclear weapons in conventional warfare and the forms of nuclear intimidation have changed.&#x0D; The effectiveness of Russia’s nuclear policy depends on the degree of compliance of its components with established international norms, formed within the framework of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime. These norms can be defined as the global nuclear order. Russia’s policy of nuclear intimidation falls out of this order and creates a “nuclear disorder”. Currently, it is losing effectiveness for the Russian leadership, since it is increasingly seen as a “nuclear bluff”. Russia is trying to hide its nuclear intimidation behind the doctrinal provisions of nuclear deterrence, which generally remains effective.&#x0D; In the war against Ukraine, Russia is actively trying to artificially create criteria for the use of nuclear weapons that would formally correspond to the global nuclear order, while leaving room for nuclear intimidation. In particular, this may explain accusations against Ukraine of developing weapons of mass destruction and Russia’s attempts to annex the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories as soon as possible.&#x0D; The creation of a postwar architecture of international security will require bringing Russian nuclear policy to the norms of the global nuclear order.

Distressing a system in distress: global nuclear order and Russia’s war against Ukraine

ABSTRACT While prosecuting its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has relied heavily on nuclear threats, turning the war in Ukraine into a dangerous nuclear crisis with profound implications for the global nuclear order and its two constitutive systems of nuclear deterrence and nuclear restraint. These two interconnected systems, each aiming to manage nuclear possession and reduce the risk of nuclear use, are at once complimentary and contradictory. While tensions between these systems are not new, the war in Ukraine exacerbates them in unprecedented ways. The system of nuclear deterrence seems to be proving its worth by inducing restraint on Russia and NATO, while the system of restraint is undermined by demonstrating what happens to a country not protected by nuclear deterrence. The latter lesson is particularly vivid given Ukraine’s decision to forgo a nuclear option in 1994 in exchange for security assurances from nuclear powers. Russia’s use of nuclear threats as an enabler for escalation and the specter of Russian tactical nuclear use against Ukraine goes well beyond its declared nuclear doctrine. The outcome of the war in Ukraine thus has critical importance for deciding the value of nuclear weapons in global security architecture and for resolving the conundrum between the systems of deterrence and restraint.

Brazil in the global nuclear order, 1945–2018

Brazil in the global nuclear order, 1945–2018

Rethinking global nuclear politics, rethinking feminism

Abstract This article serves as an introduction to the International Affairs special section, ‘Feminist interrogations of global nuclear politics’. In this article, we argue that feminist International Relations scholarship on the global nuclear order and its discontents should be revitalized, in ways that reckon more fully with the colonial matrix of power and its contemporary realignments. As the initial step in such a task, the first part of the article explores some of the distinctive insights that are generated about global nuclear politics by a feminist approach that takes coloniality seriously. We show that such an approach reconceptualizes nuclear destruction as a lived reality for many, within a broader history of domination; exposes the racialized, gendered and colonial dimensions of nuclear discourses; and casts fresh light on the material colonial relationships at the heart of the global nuclear order. In the second part, we reverse our focus to critically think through how the content of feminism, and its relation to coloniality and struggles for self-determination, might be understood differently if we start from a concern with global nuclear politics. The third and final part surveys the articles in the special section, highlighting where they pick up on the themes we have explored and some future lines of enquiry.

The War in Ukraine and Global Nuclear Order

The global nuclear order had been challenged in recent years by individual proliferators, the moribund US–Russian arms-control process and resultant frustration over stalled progress towards disarmament. Then Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine under cover of nuclear threats against NATO. This has neither exposed the international nuclear-governance regime as toothless nor brought it to the verge of collapse. The global nuclear order’s history shows its resilience to rogue acts by great powers. It will continue to serve key nuclear-capable states’ security and energy interests in the non-proliferation domain. Arms control between Washington and Moscow has always been sensitive to their strategic whims and can be reconstituted. The main consequence of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war is renewed public awareness of the often unpalatable role nuclear weapons play in international politics. Nuclear targeting, deterrent threats and associated risk-reduction efforts are hardly new phenomena.