Global Land Model Research Articles

Evaluating the impact of peat soils and snow schemes on simulated active layer thickness at pan-Arctic permafrost sites

Abstract Permafrost stability is significantly influenced by the thermal buffering effects of snow and active-layer peat soils. In the warm season, peat soils act as a barrier to downward heat transfer mainly due to their low thermal conductivity. In the cold season, the snowpack serves as a thermal insulator, retarding the release of heat from the soil to the atmosphere. Currently, many global land models overestimate permafrost soil temperature and active layer thickness (ALT), partially due to inaccurate representations of soil organic matter (SOM) density profiles and snow thermal insulation. In this study, we evaluated the impacts of SOM and snow schemes on ALT simulations at pan-Arctic permafrost sites using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). We conducted simulations at the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) sites across the pan-Arctic domain. We improved ELM-simulated site-level ALT using a knowledge-based hierarchical optimization procedure and examined the effects of precipitation-phase partitioning methods (PPMs), snow compaction schemes, and snow thermal conductivity schemes on simulated snow depth, soil temperature, ALT, and CO2 fluxes. Results showed that the optimized ELM significantly improved agreement with observed ALT (e.g. RMSE decreased from 0.83 m to 0.15 m). Our sensitivity analysis revealed that snow-related schemes significantly impact simulated snow thermal insulation levels, soil temperature, and ALT. For example, one of the commonly used snow thermal conductivity schemes (quadratic Sturm or SturmQua) generally produced warmer soil temperatures and larger ALT compared to the other two tested schemes. The SturmQua scheme also amplified the model’s sensitivity to PPMs and predicted deeper ALTs than the other two snow schemes under both current and future climates. The study highlights the importance of accurately representing snow-related processes and peat soils in land models to enhance permafrost dynamics simulations.

Soil acidification suppresses phosphorus supply through enhancing organomineral association

It has long been assumed that soil acidification increases reactive iron and/or aluminum (Fe/Al) oxides and promotes Pi sorption onto mineral surfaces, resulting in a decrease in Pi. However, this assumption has seldom been tested in long-term field experiments. Using a 12-year acid addition experiment in a tropical forest, we demonstrated that soil acidification increased the content of noncrystalline Fe and Al oxides by 16.3 % and 27.7 %, respectively; whereas it did not alter the absorbed Pi pool and Pi sorption capacity. Furthermore, soil acidification increased the Fe/Al-bound organic matter content by 82.5 %, causing a 54.9 % reduction in Pi desorption, a 42.3 % decrease in soluble Pi content, and a 9.2 % increase in occluded Pi content. Our findings demonstrate that soil acidification reduces Pi bioavailability by repressing Pi desorption rather than enhancing Pi sorption. These results could be attributed to the enhanced organomineral association, which competes for sorption sites with Pi and promotes the Pi occlusion. However, the interactions between organomineral-Pi have not been incorporated into global land models, which may overestimate ecosystem productivity under future acid rain scenarios.

Temperature dependence of ecosystem carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus residence times differs between subtropical and temperate forests in China

Residence times of ecosystem carbon (τe,C), nitrogen (τe,N) and phosphorus (τe,P) are closely related to efficacies of carbon and nutrients conservation within an ecosystem. However, estimates of τe,C, τe,N and τe,P together are very limited for forest ecosystems, and little is known about the environmental controls. Here we estimated τe,C, τe,N and τe,P of 127 undisturbed forests based on observed carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus stocks and compiled 30 key variables related to climate, vegetation, soil and terrain for the sites. We then performed a variation partitioning analysis to identify dominant controls on τe,C, τe,N and τe,P, and used segmented regression to identify possible thresholds in the dependence of τe,C, τe,N and τe,P on temperature. Climate, particularly average minimum temperature of the coldest month of a year (Tmin), was the main driver of τe,C, τe,N and τe,P. In regions with Tmin < 0 °C, τe,C and τe,P decreased with increasing Tmin; and in regions with Tmin > 0 °C, both τe,C and τe,P increased with increasing Tmin, as a result of a significant increase in total ecosystem carbon pool and a decrease in external phosphorus input, respectively. Our results challenge the use of a single temperature-dependent function of ecosystem carbon or nutrient turnover rate in global land models, and highlight the importance of other factors, such as soil weathering stage, clay content, in influencing the responses of carbon and nutrients cycles in subtropical forests to global warming.

Toward a Global Model for Soil Inorganic Phosphorus Dynamics: Dependence of Exchange Kinetics and Soil Bioavailability on Soil Physicochemical Properties.

The representation of phosphorus (P) cycling in global land models remains quite simplistic, particularly on soil inorganic phosphorus. For example, sorption and desorption remain unresolved and their dependence on soil physical and chemical properties is ignored. Empirical parameter values are usually based on expert knowledge or data from few sites with debatable global representativeness in most global land models. To overcome these issues, we compiled from data of inorganic soil P fractions and calculated the fraction of added P remaining in soil solution over time of 147 soil samples to optimize three parameters in a model of soil inorganic P dynamics. The calibrated model performed well (r 2 > 0.7 for 122 soil samples). Model parameters vary by several orders of magnitude, and correlate with soil P fractions of different inorganic pools, soil organic carbon and oxalate extractable metal oxide concentrations among the soil samples. The modeled bioavailability of soil P depends on, not only, the desorption rates of labile and sorbed pool, inorganic phosphorus fractions, the slope of P sorbed against solution P concentration, but also on the ability of biological uptake to deplete solution P concentration and the time scale. The model together with the empirical relationships of model parameters on soil properties can be used to quantify bioavailability of soil inorganic P on various timescale especially when coupled within global land models.

Aerosol–light interactions reduce the carbon budget imbalance

Current estimates of the global land carbon sink contain substantial uncertainties on interannual timescales which contribute to a non-closure in the global carbon budget (GCB) in any given year. This budget imbalance (BIM) partly arises due to the use of imperfect models which are missing or misrepresenting processes. One such omission is the separate treatment of downward direct and diffuse solar radiation on photosynthesis. Here we evaluate and use an improved high-resolution (6-hourly), gridded dataset of surface solar diffuse and direct fluxes, over 1901–2017, constrained by satellite and ground-level observations, to drive two global land models. Results show that tropospheric aerosol–light interactions have the potential for substantial land carbon impacts (up to 0.4 PgCyr-1 enhanced sink) at decadal timescales, however large uncertainties remain, with models disagreeing on the direction of change in carbon uptake. On interannual timescales, results also show an enhancement of the land carbon sink (up to 0.9 PgCyr-1) and subsequent reduction in BIM by 55% in years following volcanic eruptions. We therefore suggest GCB assessments include this dataset in order to improve land carbon sink estimates.

Modelling of land nutrient cycles: recent progress and future development.

While widespread imitation of the productivity of the land biosphere by nutrients, like nitrogen and phosphorus, was demonstrated many decades ago, representation of nutrient cycles in global land models has been relatively recent. Over the last three years, significant progress has been made in understanding some of the key processes and their representation in global land models. They include the significance of plant–microbial interaction in affecting nutrient cycles, inorganic soil phosphorus transformation, and nitrogen release from rocks. As a result, our understanding of the linkages among geology, biology, and climate controlling nutrient cycles is improving. However, progress in modelling nutrient cycles at a global scale is still confronted with large uncertainties in representing key processes owing to lack of data at the relevant scales for evaluating coupled carbon and nutrient cycles. Here we recommend two approaches to advance modelling of land nutrient cycles: the application of machine learning techniques to bridge the gap between global modelling and scattered site-level information and the use of optimality principles to identify key mechanisms driving spatial and temporal patterns of nutrients.

Strong Local Evaporative Cooling Over Land Due to Atmospheric Aerosols

AbstractAerosols can enhance terrestrial productivity through increased absorption of solar radiation by the shaded portion of the plant canopy—the diffuse radiation fertilization effect. Although this process can, in principle, alter surface evaporation due to the coupling between plant water loss and carbon uptake, with the potential to change the surface temperature, aerosol‐climate interactions have been traditionally viewed in light of the radiative effects within the atmosphere. Here, we develop a modeling framework that combines global atmosphere and land model simulations with a conceptual diagnostic tool to investigate these interactions from a surface energy budget perspective. Aerosols increase the terrestrial evaporative fraction, or the portion of net incoming energy consumed by evaporation, by over 4% globally and as much as ∼40% regionally. The main mechanism for this is the increase in energy allocation from sensible to latent heat due to global dimming (reduction in global shortwave radiation) and slightly augmented by diffuse radiation fertilization. In regions with moderately dense vegetation (leaf area index &gt;2), the local surface cooling response to aerosols is dominated by this evaporative pathway, not the reduction in incident radiation. Diffuse radiation fertilization alone has a stronger impact on gross primary productivity (+2.18 Pg C y−1 or +1.8%) than on land evaporation (+0.18 W m−2 or +0.48%) and surface temperature (−0.01 K). Our results suggest that it is important for land surface models to distinguish between quantity (change in total magnitude) and quality (change in diffuse fraction) of radiative forcing for properly simulating surface climate.

A New Linear Relation for Estimating Surface Broadband Emissivity in Arid Regions Based on FTIR and MODIS Products

Broadband emissivity is a crucial parameter for calculating the radiation budget, still, it adopts a constant value in land surface models due to a lack of adequate observations. Arid regions have complex underlying surfaces and estimations of the broadband emissivity in such areas suffer from high spatial variation and uncertainty. Here, we propose a novel method for estimating broadband emissivity in the 8–14 µm range based on Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) observations, moderate resolution imaging spectrometer (MODIS) emissivity, the leaf area index (LAI) and reflectance products. The proposed method exploits FTIR observations, MODIS single-channel emissivity, reflectance and the LAI to fit a linear regression of the broadband emissivity, so the optimal equation includes emissivity, reflectance and the LAI, with an R2 and root-mean-squared error of 0.942 and 0.08. Then we used the proposed method to generate a broadband emissivity map of Northwest of China, the broadband emissivity estimated by the method showed higher variations and finer distribution in arid areas and sparsely vegetated regions compared to data from the global land surface satellite and land model. An analysis of the relationship between the broadband emissivity, land-use type and soil moisture found an existing but not linear relationship, which indicated that the relationship was complicated under the inhomogeneous surface of wetness and vegetation. In conclusion, our results suggest that the proposed method can accurately estimate the broadband emissivity in arid regions. In future research, we will test the data in a land model.

Projecting circum-Arctic excess-ground-ice melt with a sub-grid representation in the Community Land Model

Abstract. To address the long-standing underrepresentation of the influences of highly variable ground ice content on the trajectory of permafrost conditions simulated in Earth system models under a warming climate, we implement a sub-grid representation of excess ground ice within permafrost soils using the latest version of the Community Land Model (CLM5). Based on the original CLM5 tiling hierarchy, we duplicate the natural vegetated land unit by building extra tiles for up to three cryostratigraphies with different amounts of excess ice for each grid cell. For the same total amount of excess ice, introducing sub-grid variability in excess-ice contents leads to different excess-ice melting rates at the grid level. In addition, there are impacts on permafrost thermal properties and local hydrology with sub-grid representation. We evaluate this new development with single-point simulations at the Lena River delta, Siberia, where three sub-regions with distinctively different excess-ice conditions are observed. A triple-land-unit case accounting for this spatial variability conforms well to previous model studies for the Lena River delta and displays markedly different dynamics of future excess-ice thaw compared to a single-land-unit case initialized with average excess-ice contents. For global simulations, we prescribed a tiling scheme combined with our sub-grid representation to the global permafrost region using presently available circum-Arctic ground ice data. The sub-grid-scale excess ice produces significant melting of excess ice under a warming climate and enhances the representation of sub-grid variability of surface subsidence on a global scale. Our model development makes it possible to portray more details on the permafrost degradation trajectory depending on the sub-grid soil thermal regime and excess-ice melting, which also shows a strong indication that accounting for excess ice is a prerequisite of a reasonable projection of permafrost thaw. The modeled permafrost degradation with sub-grid excess ice follows the pathway that continuous permafrost transforms into discontinuous permafrost before it disappears, including surface subsidence and talik formation, which are highly permafrost-relevant landscape changes excluded from most land models. Our development of sub-grid representation of excess ice demonstrates a way forward to improve the realism of excess-ice melt in global land models, but further developments require substantially improved global observational datasets on both the horizontal and vertical distributions of excess ground ice.

Seeing the Canopy for the Branches: Improved Within Canopy Scaling of Leaf Nitrogen

AbstractTransitioning across biological scales is a central challenge in land surface models. Processes that operate at the scale of individual leaves must be scaled to canopies, and this is done using dedicated submodels. Here, we focus on a submodel that prescribes how light and nitrogen are distributed through plant canopies. We found a mathematical inconsistency in a submodel implemented in the Community and Energy Land Models (CLM and ELM), which incorporates twigs, branches, stems, and dead leaves in nitrogen scaling from leaf to canopy. The inconsistency leads to unrealistic (physically impossible) values of the nitrogen scaling coefficient. The mathematical inconsistency is a general mistake, that is, would occur in any model adopting this particular submodel. We resolve the inconsistency by allowing distinct profiles of stems and branches versus living leaves. We implemented the updated scheme in the ELM and find that the correction reduces global mean gross primary production (GPP) by 3.9 Pg C (3%). Further, when stems and branches are removed from the canopy in the updated model (akin to models that ignore shading from stems), global GPP increases by 4.1 Pg C (3.2%), because of reduced shading. Hence, models that entirely ignore stem shading also introduce errors in the global spatial distribution of GPP estimates, with a strong signal in the tropics, increasing GPP there by over 200 g C m−2 yr−1. Appropriately incorporating stems and other nonphotosynthesizing material into the light and nitrogen scaling routines of global land models, will improve their biological realism and accuracy.

Assessing Impacts of Plant Stoichiometric Traits on Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Accumulation Using the E3SM Land Model

AbstractCarbon (C) enters into the terrestrial ecosystems via photosynthesis and cycles through the system together with other essential nutrients (i.e., nitrogen [N] and phosphorus [P]). Such a strong coupling of C, N, and P leads to the theoretical prediction that limited nutrient availability will limit photosynthesis rate, plant growth, and future terrestrial C dynamics. However, the lack of reliable information about plant tissue stoichiometric constraints remains a challenge for quantifying nutrient limitations on projected global C cycling. In this study, we harmonized observed plant tissue C:N:P stoichiometry from more than 6,000 plant species with the commonly used plant functional type framework in global land models. Using observed C:N:P stoichiometry and the flexibility of these ratios as emergent plant traits, we show that observationally constrained fixed plant stoichiometry does not improve model estimates of present‐day C dynamics compared with unconstrained stoichiometry. However, adopting stoichiometric flexibility significantly improves model predictions of C fluxes and stocks. The 21st century simulations with RCP8.5 CO2 concentrations show that stoichiometric flexibility, rather than baseline stoichiometric ratios, is the dominant controller of plant productivity and ecosystem C accumulation in modeled responses to CO2 fertilization. The enhanced nutrient limitations and plant P use efficiency mainly explain this result. This study is consistent with the previous consensus that nutrient availability will limit xfuture land carbon sequestration but challenges the idea that imbalances between C and nutrient supplies and fixed stoichiometry limit future land C sinks. We show here that it is necessary to represent nutrient stoichiometric flexibility in models to accurately project future terrestrial ecosystem carbon sequestration.

Decadal fates and impacts of nitrogen additions on temperate forest carbon storage: a data–model comparison

Abstract. To accurately capture the impacts of nitrogen (N) on the land carbon (C) sink in Earth system models, model responses to both N limitation and ecosystem N additions (e.g., from atmospheric N deposition and fertilizer) need to be evaluated. The response of the land C sink to N additions depends on the fate of these additions: that is, how much of the added N is lost from the ecosystem through N loss pathways or recovered and used to increase C storage in plants and soils. Here, we evaluate the C–N dynamics of the latest version of a global land model, the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5), and how they vary when ecosystems have large N inputs and losses (i.e., an open N cycle) or small N inputs and losses (i.e., a closed N cycle). This comparison allows us to identify potential improvements to CLM5 that would apply to simulated N cycles along the open-to-closed spectrum. We also compare the short- (&lt; 3 years) and longer-term (5–17 years) N fates in CLM5 against observations from 13 long-term 15N tracer addition experiments at eight temperate forest sites. Simulations using both open and closed N cycles overestimated plant N recovery following N additions. In particular, the model configuration with a closed N cycle simulated that plants acquired more than twice the amount of added N recovered in 15N tracer studies on short timescales (CLM5: 46±12 %; observations: 18±12 %; mean across sites ±1 standard deviation) and almost twice as much on longer timescales (CLM5: 23±6 %; observations: 13±5 %). Soil N recoveries in simulations with closed N cycles were closer to observations in the short term (CLM5: 40±10 %; observations: 54±22 %) but smaller than observations in the long term (CLM5: 59±15 %; observations: 69±18 %). Simulations with open N cycles estimated similar patterns in plant and soil N recovery, except that soil N recovery was also smaller than observations in the short term. In both open and closed sets of simulations, soil N recoveries in CLM5 occurred from the cycling of N through plants rather than through direct immobilization in the soil, as is often indicated by tracer studies. Although CLM5 greatly overestimated plant N recovery, the simulated increase in C stocks to recovered N was not much larger than estimated by observations, largely because the model's assumed C:N ratio for wood was nearly half that suggested by measurements at the field sites. Overall, results suggest that simulating accurate ecosystem responses to changes in N additions requires increasing soil competition for N relative to plants and examining model assumptions of C:N stoichiometry, which should also improve model estimates of other terrestrial C–N processes and interactions.

Comparison With Global Soil Radiocarbon Observations Indicates Needed Carbon Cycle Improvements in the E3SM Land Model

AbstractWe evaluated global soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and turnover time predictions from a global land model (ELMv1‐ECA) integrated in an Earth System Model (E3SM) by comparing them with observed soil bulk and Δ14C values around the world. We analyzed observed and simulated SOC stocks and Δ14C values using machine learning methods at the Earth System Model grid cell scale (~200 km). In grid cells with sufficient observations, the model provided reasonable estimates of soil carbon stocks across soil depth and Δ14C values near the surface but underestimated Δ14C at depth. Among many explanatory variables, soil albedo index, soil order, plant function type, air temperature, and SOC content were major factors affecting predicted SOC Δ14C values. The influences of soil albedo index, soil order, and air temperature were primarily important in the shallow subsurface (≤30 cm). We also performed sensitivity studies using different vertical root distributions and decomposition turnover times and compared to observed SOC stock and Δ14C profiles. The analyses support the role of vegetation in affecting soil carbon turnover, particularly in deep soil, possibly through supplying fresh carbon and degrading physical‐chemical protection of SOC via root activities. Allowing for grid cell‐specific rooting and decomposition rates substantially reduced discrepancies between observed and predicted Δ14C values and SOC content. Our results highlight the need for more explicit representation of roots, microbes, and soil physical protection in land models.

Decadal Stabilization of Soil Inorganic Nitrogen as a Benchmark for Global Land Models

AbstractGlobal land models are now routinely incorporating the nitrogen (N) cycle into simulations, but the identification of its benchmarks has lagged behind. An important variable in these models is the soil inorganic N (SIN) which is the resultant of different input and output N processes. However, whether and how the SIN pool and its spatiotemporal variation can be used as benchmarks for models remains unclear. Here we first constructed a database of measured SIN at 756 sites from 1980 to 2010 across China, one of the regions that has been experiencing the highest external N input. Although there was great spatial variability of the measured SIN pool, no significant changes were detected across China during 1980–2010 based on a bootstrapping approach. The medians of the measured SIN across China were 63, 70, and 65 mg/kg during the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, respectively. Then, we used the regional SIN database to evaluate two versions of the Community Land Model (i.e., CLM4.5 and CLM5.0). In comparison with the observation (median 75 mg/kg) at grid‐cell scale, both CLM4.5 (median 0.70 mg/kg) and CLM5.0 (median 0.79 mg/kg) underestimated the SIN pools across China. Although the drivers of such modeling biases are difficult to identify at the current stage, improved representations of both input and output processes of the SIN pool in the models are highly recommended. These findings suggest that a decadal stabilization of the SIN pool in terrestrial ecosystems and the spatial distribution of the SIN pool may be a useful benchmark for global biogeochemical models.

Development and evaluation of a variably saturated flow model in the global E3SM Land Model (ELM) version 1.0

Abstract. Improving global-scale model representations of near-surface soil moisture and groundwater hydrology is important for accurately simulating terrestrial processes and predicting climate change effects on water resources. Most existing land surface models, including the default E3SM Land Model (ELMv0), which we modify here, routinely employ different formulations for water transport in the vadose and phreatic zones. Clark et al. (2015) identified a variably saturated Richards equation flow model as an important capability for improving simulation of coupled soil moisture and shallow groundwater dynamics. In this work, we developed the Variably Saturated Flow Model (VSFM) in ELMv1 to unify the treatment of soil hydrologic processes in the unsaturated and saturated zones. VSFM was tested on three benchmark problems and results were evaluated against observations and an existing benchmark model (PFLOTRAN). The ELMv1-VSFM's subsurface drainage parameter, fd, was calibrated to match an observationally constrained and spatially explicit global water table depth (WTD) product. Optimal spatially explicit fd values were obtained for 79 % of global 1.9∘ × 2.5∘ grid cells, while the remaining 21 % of global grid cells had predicted WTD deeper than the observationally constrained estimate. Comparison with predictions using the default fd value demonstrated that calibration significantly improved predictions, primarily by allowing much deeper WTDs. Model evaluation using the International Land Model Benchmarking package (ILAMB) showed that improvements in WTD predictions did not degrade model skill for any other metrics. We evaluated the computational performance of the VSFM model and found that the model is about 30 % more expensive than the default ELMv0 with an optimal processor layout. The modular software design of VSFM not only provides flexibility to configure the model for a range of problem setups but also allows for building the model independently of the ELM code, thus enabling straightforward testing of the model's physics against other models.

Reconciling global-model estimates and country reporting of anthropogenic forest CO2 sinks

Achieving the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement requires forest-based mitigation. Collective progress towards this goal will be assessed by the Paris Agreement’s Global stocktake. At present, there is a discrepancy of about 4 GtCO2 yr−1 in global anthropogenic net land-use emissions between global models (reflected in IPCC assessment reports) and aggregated national GHG inventories (under the UNFCCC). We show that a substantial part of this discrepancy (about 3.2 GtCO2 yr−1) can be explained by conceptual differences in anthropogenic forest sink estimation, related to the representation of environmental change impacts and the areas considered as managed. For a more credible tracking of collective progress under the Global stocktake, these conceptual differences between models and inventories need to be reconciled. We implement a new method of disaggregation of global land model results that allows greater comparability with GHG inventories. This provides a deeper understanding of model–inventory differences, allowing more transparent analysis of forest-based mitigation and facilitating a more accurate Global stocktake. The model–inventory discrepancy in net land-use carbon emissions mainly results from conceptual differences in estimating anthropogenic forest sinks. A revised disaggregation of global land model results allows greater comparability with inventories.

Globally rising soil heterotrophic respiration over recent decades.

Global soils store at least twice as much carbon as Earth's atmosphere1,2. The global soil-to-atmosphere (or total soil respiration, RS) carbon dioxide (CO2) flux is increasing3,4, but the degree to which climate change will stimulate carbon losses from soils as a result of heterotrophic respiration (RH) remains highly uncertain5-8. Here we use an updated global soil respiration database9 to show that the observed soil surface RH:RS ratio increased significantly, from 0.54 to 0.63, between 1990 and 2014 (P = 0.009). Three additional lines of evidence provide support for this finding. By analysing two separate global gross primary production datasets10,11, we find that the ratios of both RH and RS to gross primary production have increased over time. Similarly, significant increases in RH are observed against the longest available solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence global dataset, as well as gross primary production computed by an ensemble of global land models. We also show that the ratio of night-time net ecosystem exchange to gross primary production is rising across the FLUXNET201512 dataset. All trends are robust to sampling variability in ecosystem type, disturbance, methodology, CO2 fertilization effects and mean climate. Taken together, our findings provide observational evidence that global RH is rising, probably in response to environmental changes, consistent with meta-analyses13-16 and long-term experiments17. This suggests that climate-driven losses of soil carbon are currently occurring across many ecosystems, with a detectable and sustained trend emerging at the global scale.

Parameter calibration in global soil carbon models using surrogate-based optimization

Abstract. Soil organic carbon (SOC) has a significant effect on carbon emissions and climate change. However, the current SOC prediction accuracy of most models is very low. Most evaluation studies indicate that the prediction error mainly comes from parameter uncertainties, which can be improved by parameter calibration. Data assimilation techniques have been successfully employed for the parameter calibration of SOC models. However, data assimilation algorithms, such as the sampling-based Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), generally have high computation costs and are not appropriate for complex global land models. This study proposes a new parameter calibration method based on surrogate optimization techniques to improve the prediction accuracy of SOC. Experiments on three types of soil carbon cycle models, including the Community Land Model with the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach biogeochemistry submodel (CLM-CASA') and two microbial models show that the surrogate-based optimization method is effective and efficient in terms of both accuracy and cost. Compared to predictions using the tuned parameter values through Bayesian MCMC, the root mean squared errors (RMSEs) between the predictions using the calibrated parameter values with surrogate-base optimization and the observations could be reduced by up to 12 % for different SOC models. Meanwhile, the corresponding computational cost is lower than other global optimization algorithms.

Improving Representation of Crop Growth and Yield in the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model and Its Application to China

AbstractTo accurately assess the roles of agriculture in securing food security and maintaining environmental sustainability, it is essential to improve the representation of crop growth, development, and yield formation in global land models that traditionally focus on energy, water, carbon, and nitrogen exchanges between land and the atmosphere. In this study, a process‐based agricultural module has been coupled with the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM‐AG2.0) for assessing how multiple environmental factors (climate change, atmospheric CO2 concentration, tropospheric O3, and nitrogen deposition) and human activities (land use/cover change, nitrogen fertilizer use, and irrigation) have affected the crop growth, development, yield, carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and water cycles in agroecosystems. Here we describe the model structure for simulating crop growth, development, and yield formation in the DLEM‐AG2.0, and then we validate the model using field observations and a national yield survey for three major crops (wheat, maize, and rice) in China during 1980–2012. Results show that the DLEM‐AG2.0 is capable of simulating the dynamic processes of phenological development, leaf growth expansion, biomass accumulation, biomass allocation, and yield formation for wheat, maize, and rice with normalized root mean square errors of the simulations of less than 20%. Our model‐based yield estimation for the three major crops at the national scale for the period 1980–2012 is generally consistent with the national yield survey in China. The crop representation in the DLEM‐AG2.0 is flexible for extrapolating to a global scale after rigorous testing with both site‐specific and regional observations. Further advancement of agricultural modeling within the global land modeling framework will require consideration of human perception and behavior for adapting and mitigating global change.

Isoprene emission response to drought and the impact on global atmospheric chemistry

Biogenic isoprene emissions play a very important role in atmospheric chemistry. These emissions are strongly dependent on various environmental conditions, such as temperature, solar radiation, plant water stress, ambient ozone and CO2 concentrations, and soil moisture. Current biogenic emission models (i.e., Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature, MEGAN) can simulate emission responses to some of the major driving variables, such as short-term variations in temperature and solar radiation, but the other factors are either missing or poorly represented. In this paper, we propose a new modelling approach that considers the physiological effects of drought stress on plant photosynthesis and isoprene emissions for use in the MEGAN3 biogenic emission model. We test the MEGAN3 approach by integrating the algorithm into the existing MEGAN2.1 biogenic emission model framework embedded into the global Community Land Model of the Community Earth System Model (CLM4.5/CESM1.2). Single-point simulations are compared against available field measurements at the Missouri Ozarks AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) field site. The modelling results show that the MEGAN3 approach of using of a photosynthesis parameter (Vcmax) and soil wetness factor (βt) to determine the drought activity factor leads to better simulated isoprene emissions in non-drought and drought periods. The global simulation with the MEGAN3 approach predicts a 17% reduction in global annual isoprene emissions, in comparison to the value predicted using the default CLM4.5/MEGAN2.1 without any drought effect. This reduction leads to changes in surface ozone and oxidants in the areas where the reduction of isoprene emissions is observed. Based on the results presented in this study, we conclude that it is important to simulate the drought-induced response of biogenic isoprene emission accurately in the coupled Earth System model.