Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model Research Articles

Relative Contributions of Field‐Aligned Currents and Particle Precipitation to Inter‐Hemispheric Asymmetry at High Latitudes During the 2015 St. Patrick's Day Storm

AbstractHigh latitude upper atmospheric inter‐hemispheric asymmetry (IHA) tends to be enhanced during geomagnetic storms, which may be due to the complex spatiotemporal changes and magnitude modifications in field aligned currents (FACs) and particle precipitation (PP). However, the relative contribution of FACs and PP to IHA in high‐latitude forcing and energy is not well understood. The IHA during the 2015 St. Patrick’s Day storm has been investigated using the global ionosphere thermosphere model (GITM), driven by FACs from the Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Electrodynamics Response Experiment (AMPERE) and PP from the Assimilative Mapping of Ionospheric Electrodynamics (AMIE). A comprehensive study of the (a) relative contributions of FACs and PP to electric potential and Joule heating and (b) sensitivity of electric potential and Joule heating to the changes in magnitude and distribution of FACs and PP is presented. The results indicate that FACs lead to larger potential and Joule heating changes compared with PP. The spatial variations of potential and Joule heating are also affected by variation in FACs. As for asymmetric magnitude and distribution, it is found that electric potential and Joule heating are more sensitive to changes in the distribution of FACs and PP than the magnitude of FACs and PP. A new spatial asymmetry index (SAI) is introduced, which reveals spatial asymmetric details that are often overlooked by previous studies. This sensitivity study reveals the relative contributions in high‐latitude forcing and emphasizes the importance of obtaining accurate FACs and PP in both hemispheres.

Geomagnetic Disturbances Due To Neutral‐Wind‐Driven Ionospheric Currents

AbstractPrevious simulation efforts on geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) and geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) mostly rely on global magnetohydrodynamics models, which explicitly calculate the magnetospheric currents and carry certain assumptions about the ionosphere currents. Therefore, the role of ionospheric and thermospheric processes to GMDs has not been fully evaluated. In this study, Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model simulations for an idealized storm event have been conducted. Simply, the high‐latitude electrodynamic forcing (potential pattern and particle precipitation) has been specified by empirical models. GMDs due to neutral‐wind driven currents have been compared to those caused by magnetospheric convection driven currents during both the main and recovery phases. At locations where the high‐latitude electric potential is dominant, neutral‐wind driven currents are found to contribute to about 10%–30% of the total GMDs. During the recovery phase when the ion‐convection pattern retreats to high latitudes, neutral‐wind driven currents become the primary sources for GMDs at middle latitudes on the dayside due to the “flywheel” effect and the large dayside conductance. Our result strongly suggests that ionospheric and thermospheric processes should not be neglected when estimating GMDs and therefore GICs.

Investigating the Interhemispheric Asymmetry in Joule Heating During the 2013 St. Patrick's Day Geomagnetic Storm

AbstractSudden changes in energy input from the magnetosphere during geomagnetic storms could drive extreme variability in the ionosphere‐thermosphere system, which in turn affect satellite operations and other modern infrastructure. Joule heating is the main form of magnetospheric energy dissipation in the ionosphere‐thermosphere system, so it is important to know when and where Joule heating will occur. While Joule heating occurs all the time, it can increase rapidly during geomagnetic storms. We investigated the Joule heating profile of the 2013 St Patrick's day storm using the University of Michigan Global Ionosphere‐Thermosphere Model (GITM). Using empirical and data‐assimilated drivers we analyzed when and where intense Joule heating occurred. The timing, location, and sources of interhemispheric asymmetry during this geomagnetic storm are of key interest due to near equinox conditions. Hemispheric comparisons are made between parameters, including solar insolation, total electron content profiles, and Pedersen and Hall conductance profiles, obtained from GITM driven with empirical driven input, versus those driven with data‐assimilated patterns. Further comparisons are made during periods of peak hemispheric Joule heating asymmetry in an effort to investigate their potential sources. Additionally, we compare the consistency of the interhemispheric asymmetry between empirical‐ and data‐assimilated driven simulations to further analyze the role of data‐assimilated drivers on the IT system.

Numerical Modeling and GNSS Observations of Ionospheric Depletions Due To a Small‐Lift Launch Vehicle

AbstractSpace launches produce ionospheric disturbances which can be observed through measurements such as Global Navigation Satellite System signal delays. Here we report observations and numerical simulations of the ionospheric depletion due to a Small‐Lift Launch Vehicle. The case examined was the launch of a Rocket Lab Electron at 22:30 UTC on 22 March 2021. Despite the very small launch vehicle, ground stations in the Chatham Islands measured decreases in slant total electron content for navigation satellite signals following the launch. Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model results indicated ionospheric depletions which were comparable with these measurements. Measurements indicated a maximum decrease of 2.7 TECU in vertical total electron content, compared with a simulated decrease of 2.6 TECU. Advection of the exhaust plume due to its initial velocity and subsequent effects of neutral winds are identified as some remaining challenges for this form of modeling.

Surprising Decrease in the Martian He Bulge During PEDE‐2018 and Changes in Upper Atmospheric Circulation

AbstractUsing the Neutral Gas and Ion Mass Spectrometer (NGIMS) on the Mars Atmosphere Volatile and Evolution spacecraft (MAVEN), we analyzed data from Mars Year (MY) 32, 34, and 35 to examine the He bulge during the northern winter solstice (Ls ∼ 180–240), specifically focusing on the effects from the planet encircling dust event (PEDE‐2018). He collects on the dawn/nightside winter polar hemisphere of Mars. The seasonal migration of the He bulge has been observed and modeled (M. Elrod et al., 2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JA023482; Gupta et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JE006976). The MAVEN orbit precesses around Mars allowing for a variety of latitude and local time observations throughout the Martian year. MY 32, 34, and 35 had the best possible opportunities to observe the He bulge during northern winter (Ls ∼ 180–240). NGIMS observations during MY 32 and MY 35 revealed a He bulge from the nightside to dawn in alignment with modeling and previous publications. However, in MY 34, during the PEDE, the He bulge was not present, indicating that the PEDE directly impacted upper atmospheric circulation. Updates in modeling indicate changes in circulation and winds can cause He to shift further north than MAVEN was able to observe. While adding a simple static version of gravity waves to the Mars Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model model may account for some of the variations in the global circulation during the dust event, other studies (e.g., Yiğit, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-01118-7) have posited that the gravity waves during the dust storm were more variable than the initial parameters we have included.

Validation of Ionospheric Specifications During Geomagnetic Storms: TEC and foF2 During the 2013 March Storm Event‐II

AbstractAssessing space weather modeling capability is a key element in improving existing models and developing new ones. In order to track improvement of the models and investigate impacts of forcing, from the lower atmosphere below and from the magnetosphere above, on the performance of ionosphere‐thermosphere models, we expand our previous assessment for 2013 March storm event (Shim et al., 2018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW002034). In this study, we evaluate new simulations from upgraded models (the Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics (CTIPe) model version 4.1 and the Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (GITM) version 21.11) and from the NCAR Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere and ionosphere extension (WACCM‐X) version 2.2 including eight simulations in the previous study. A simulation from the NCAR Thermosphere‐Ionosphere‐Electrodynamics General Circulation Model version 2 (TIE‐GCM 2.0) is also included for comparison with WACCM‐X. TEC and foF2 changes from quiet‐time background are considered to evaluate the model performance on the storm impacts. For evaluation, we employ four skill scores: Correlation coefficient (CC), root‐mean square error (RMSE), ratio of the modeled to observed maximum percentage changes (Yield), and timing error (TE). It is found that the models tend to underestimate the storm‐time enhancements of foF2 (F2‐layer critical frequency) and TEC (Total Electron Content) and to predict foF2 and/or TEC better in North America but worse in the Southern Hemisphere. The ensemble simulation for TEC is comparable to results from a data assimilation model (Utah State University‐Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (USU‐GAIM)) with differences in skill score less than 3% and 6% for CC and RMSE, respectively.

Improving Forecasting Ability of GITM Using Data‐Driven Model Refinement

AbstractAt altitudes below about 600 km, satellite drag is one of the most important and variable forces acting on a satellite. Neutral mass density predictions in the upper atmosphere are therefore critical for (a) designing satellites; (b) performing adjustments to stay in an intended orbit; and (c) collision avoidance maneuver planning. Density predictions have a great deal of uncertainty, including model biases and model misrepresentation of the atmospheric response to energy input. These may stem from inaccurate approximations of terms in the Navier‐Stokes equations, unmodeled physics, incorrect boundary conditions, or incorrect parameterizations. Two commonly parameterized source terms are the thermal conduction and eddy diffusion. Both are critical components in the transfer of the heat in the thermosphere. Determining how well the major constituents (N2, O2, and O) are as heat conductors will have effects on the temperature and mass density changes from a heat source. This work shows the effectiveness of using the retrospective cost model refinement (RCMR) technique at removing model bias caused by different sources within the Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model. Numerical experiments, Challenging Minisatellite Payload and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment data during real events are used to show that RCMR can compensate for model bias caused by both inaccurate parameterizations and drivers. RCMR is used to show that eliminating model bias before a storm allows for more accurate predictions throughout the storm.

Multi‐Scale Geomagnetic Forcing Derived From High‐Resolution Observations and Their Impacts on the Upper Atmosphere

AbstractTechniques developed in the past few years enable the derivation of high‐resolution regional ion convection and particle precipitation patterns from the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) and Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms All‐Sky Imager (ASI) observations, respectively. For the first time in this study, a global ionosphere‐thermosphere model (GITM) is driven by such high‐resolution patterns to simulate the I‐T response to the multi‐scale geomagnetic forcing during a real event. Specifically, GITM simulations have been conducted for the 26 March 2014 event with different ways to specify the high‐latitude forcing, including empirical models, high‐resolution SuperDARN convection patterns, and high‐resolution ASI particle precipitation maps. Multi‐scale ion convection forcing estimated from high‐resolution SuperDARN observations is found to have a very strong meso‐scale component. Multi‐scale convection forcing increases the regional Joule heating (integrated over the high‐resolution SuperDARN observation domain) by ∼30% on average, which is mostly contributed by the meso‐scale component. Meso‐scale electron precipitation derived from ASI measurements contributes on average about 30% to the total electron energy flux, and its impact on the I‐T system is comparable to the meso‐scale convection forcing estimated from SuperDARN observations. Both meso‐scale convection and precipitation forcing are found to enhance ionospheric and thermospheric disturbances with prominent structures and magnitudes of a few tens of meters per second in the horizontal neutral winds at 270 km and a few percent in the neutral density at 400 km through comparisons between simulations driven by the original and smoothed high‐resolution forcing patterns.

Modeling Solar Eclipses at Extreme Ultra Violet Wavelengths and the Effects of Nonuniform Eclipse Shadow on the Ionosphere‐Thermosphere System

AbstractThe impacts of solar eclipses on the ionosphere‐thermosphere system particularly the composition, density, and transport are studied using numerical simulation and subsequent model‐data comparison. We introduce a newly developed model of a solar eclipse mask (shadow) at extreme ultraviolet (EUV) wavelengths—PyEclipse—that computes the corresponding shadowing as a function of space, time, and wavelength of the input solar image. The current model includes interfaces for Solar Dynamics Observatory and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites EUV telescopes providing solar images at nine different wavelengths. We show the significance of the EUV eclipse shadow spatial variability and that it varies significantly with wavelength owing to the highly variable solar coronal emissions. We demonstrate geometrical differences between the EUV eclipse shadow compared to a geometrically symmetric simplification revealing changes in occultation vary ±20%. The EUV eclipse mask is validated with in situ solar flux measurements by the PRoject for Onboard Autonomy 2/Large Yield Radiometer instrument suite showing the model captures the morphology and amplitudes of transient variability while the modeled gradients are slower. The effects of spatially EUV eclipse masks are investigated with Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model for the 21 August 2017 eclipse. The results reveal that the modeled EUV eclipse mask, in comparison with the geometrically symmetric approximation, causes changes in the Total Electron Content in order of ±20%, 5%–20% in F‐region plasma drift, and 20%–30% in F‐region neutral winds.

Assessment of Using Field‐Aligned Currents to Drive the Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model: A Case Study for the 2013 St Patrick’s Day Geomagnetic Storm

AbstractIn this study, field‐aligned currents (FACs) obtained from the Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Electrodynamics Response Experiment data set have been used to specify the high‐latitude electric potential in the Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (GITM). The advantages and challenges of the FAC‐driven simulation are investigated based on a series of numerical experiments and data‐model comparisons for the 2013 St Patrick's Day geomagnetic storm. It is found that the cross‐track ion drift measured by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program satellites can be well reproduced in the FAC‐driven simulation when the electron precipitation pattern obtained from Assimilative Mapping of Ionospheric Electrodynamics (AMIE) technique is used in GITM. It is also found that including the neutral wind dynamo properly is very important when using FACs to derive the high‐latitude electric field. Without the neutral wind dynamo, the cross‐polar‐cap potential and hemispheric integrated Joule heating could be underestimated by more than 20%. Moreover, the FAC‐driven simulation is able to well reproduce the ionospheric response to the geomagnetic storm in the American sector. However, the FAC‐driven simulation yields relatively larger data‐model discrepancies compared to the AMIE‐driven GITM simulation. This may result from inaccurate Joule heating estimations in the FAC‐driven simulation caused by the inconsistency between the FAC and electron precipitation patterns. This study indicates that the FAC‐driven technique could be a useful tool for studying the coupled ionosphere and thermosphere system provided that the FACs and electron precipitation patterns can be accurately specified.

Impact of Soft Electron Precipitation on the Thermospheric Neutral Mass Density During Geomagnetic Storms: GITM Simulations

AbstractIn this study, the impact of improving soft (0.1–1 keV) electron precipitation on the F‐region neutral mass density has been evaluated using the Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (GITM). Two types of electron energy spectra having the same total energy flux and average energy but different spectral shapes have been used to specify the electron precipitation in GITM. One is the Maxwellian spectrum and the other is from an empirical model, Auroral Spectrum and High‐Latitude Electric field variabilitY (ASHLEY), which provides stronger (up to 2–3 orders of magnitude) soft electron precipitations than the Maxwellian spectrum. Data‐model comparisons indicate that the storm‐time orbital averaged neutral density can be increased by 10%–40% and is more consistent with the observation if the non‐Maxwellian ASHLEY spectrum is used. This study reveals the importance of accurate soft electron precipitation specifications in the whole auroral zone to improving the F‐region neutral mass density estimations.

Low- and Mid-Latitude Ionospheric Response to the 2013 St. Patrick’s Day Geomagnetic Storm in the American Sector: Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model Simulation

In this study, the low-and mid-latitude ionospheric response to the main phase of the 2013 St. Patrick’s Day geomagnetic storm in the American sector on the dayside has been investigated using the ground-based measurements and the Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (GITM). First, it is found that the observed ionospheric response can be well reproduced by GITM when it is driven by the electric potential and electron precipitation patterns derived from the Assimilative Mapping of Ionospheric Electrodynamics (AMIE) technique. The AMIE-driven GITM simulation also significantly improves the data-model comparison as compared with the simulation driven by the high-latitude empirical models. Second, it is found that the transport process associated with the neutral wind is largely responsible for the observed ionospheric response. Specifically, the traveling atmospheric disturbances (TADs) propagating from the opposite hemisphere play an important role in the formation of the negative storm phase at low and middle latitudes. Third, it is found that the asymmetric negative storm phases occurred at the nominal equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) peak region in the afternoon sector are mainly attributed to the interaction of the TADs launched in different hemispheres with different phase speeds. Specifically, stronger Joule heating deposited in the northern hemisphere (NH) generates TADs with faster phase speeds than those launched in the southern hemisphere (SH). Consequently, the locations where the TADs originated from the different hemispheres interact are asymmetric about the geomagnetic equator, leading to the formation of asymmetric ionospheric negative storm phases. This study highlights the importance of accurately specifying high-latitude electrodynamic forcings in global I-T simulations and provides a new insight into the cause of the interhemispheric asymmetry phenomena during geomagnetic storms.

Impacts of Lower Thermospheric Atomic Oxygen and Dynamics on the Thermospheric Semiannual Oscillation Using GITM and WACCM‐X

AbstractThe latitudinal and temporal variation of atomic oxygen (O) is opposite between the empirical model, NRLMSISE‐00 (MSIS) and the whole atmosphere model, whole atmosphere community climate model with thermosphere and ionosphere extension (WACCM‐X) at 97–100 km. Atomic Oxygen from WACCM‐X has maxima at solstices and summer mid‐high latitudes, similar to [O] from Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER). We use the densities and dynamics from WACCM‐X to drive the Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (GITM) at its lower boundary and compare it with the MSIS driven GITM. We focus on the differences in the modeling of the thermospheric and ionospheric semiannual oscillation (T‐I SAO). Our results reveal that driving GITM with WACCM‐X causes the T‐I SAO to maximize around solstices, opposite to when MSIS is used. This is because the global mixing in GITM during solstices is not strong enough to decrease the solstitial [O] densities below the equinoctial values between mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) and upper thermosphere. Larger summer [O] in the MLT leads to the accumulation of [O] at lower latitudes in the thermosphere due to weaker meridional transport, which further increases the amplitude of the oppositely phased SAO. WACCM‐X itself has the right phase of SAO in the upper thermosphere but wrong at lower altitudes. The exact mechanisms that can correct the phase of T‐I SAO in GITM while using SABER‐like [O] in the MLT are currently unknown and warrant further investigation. We suggest mechanisms that can reduce the solstitial maxima in the lower thermosphere, for example, stronger interhemispheric meridional winds, stronger residual circulation, seasonal variations in eddy diffusion, and momentum from breaking gravity waves.

Impacts of Different Causes on the Inter‐Hemispheric Asymmetry of Ionosphere‐Thermosphere System at Mid‐ and High‐Latitudes: GITM Simulations

AbstractIn this study, the Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model is utilized to investigate the inter‐hemispheric asymmetry in the ionosphere‐thermosphere (I‐T) system at mid‐ and high‐latitudes (|geographic latitude| > 45°) associated with inter‐hemispheric differences in (a) the solar irradiance, (b) geomagnetic field, and (c) magnetospheric forcing under moderate geomagnetic conditions. Specifically, we have quantified the relative significance of the above three causes to the inter‐hemispheric asymmetries in the spatially weighted averaged E‐region electron density, F‐region neutral mass density, and horizontal neutral wind along with the hemispheric‐integrated Joule heating. Further, an asymmetry index defined as the percentage differences of these four quantities between the northern and southern hemispheres (|geographic latitude| > 45°) was calculated. It is found that: (a) The difference of the solar extreme ulutraviolet (EUV) irradiance plays a dominant role in causing inter‐hemispheric asymmetries in the four examined I‐T quantities. Typically, the asymmetry index for the E‐region electron density and integrated Joule heating at solstices with F10.7 = 150 sfu can reach 92.97% and 38.25%, respectively. (b) The asymmetric geomagnetic field can result in a strong daily variation of inter‐hemispheric asymmetries in the F‐region neutral wind and hemispheric‐integrated Joule heating over geographic coordinates. Their amplitude of asymmetry indices can be as large as 20.81% and 42.52%, which can be comparable to the solar EUV irradiance effect. (c) The contributions of the asymmetric magnetospheric forcing, including particle precipitation and ion convection pattern, can cause the asymmetry of integrated Joule heating as significant as 28.43% and 34.72%, respectively, which can be even stronger than other causes when the geomagnetic activity is intense.

Sensitivity of Upper Atmosphere to Different Characteristics of Flow Bursts in the Auroral Zone.

Meso‐scale plasma convection and particle precipitation could be significant momentum and energy sources for the ionosphere‐thermosphere (I‐T) system. Following our previous work on the I‐T response to a typical midnight flow burst, flow bursts with different characteristics (lifetime, size, and speed) have been examined systematically with Global Ionosphere‐Thermosphere Model (GITM) simulations in this study. Differences between simulations with and without additional flow bursts are used to illustrate the impact of flow bursts on the I‐T system. The neutral density perturbation due to a flow burst increases with the lifetime, size, and flow speed of the flow burst. It was found that the neutral density perturbation is most sensitive to the size of a flow burst, increasing from ∼0.3% to ∼1.3% when the size changes from 80 to 200 km. A westward‐eastward asymmetry has been identified in neutral density, wind, and temperature perturbations, which may be due to the changing of the forcing location in geographic coordinates and the asymmetrical background state of the I‐T system. In addition to midnight flow bursts, simulations with flow bursts centered at noon, dawn, and dusk have also been carried out. A flow burst centered at noon (12.0 Local Time [LT], 73°N) produces the weakest perturbation, and a flow burst centered at dusk (18.0 LT, 71°N) produces the strongest. Single‐cell and two‐cell flow bursts induce very similar neutral density perturbation patterns.

Latitudinal and Seasonal Asymmetries of the Helium Bulge in the Martian Upper Atmosphere

AbstractIn the present study, we investigate the characteristics of helium (He) bulges in the Martian upper atmosphere using He densities and winds measured by the Neutral Gas and Ion Mass Spectrometer (NGIMS) aboard the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) spacecraft. The observations are compared with those predicted by the Mars Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (M‐GITM). The results of the present study show that the nightside He bulge is a persistent feature of the Martian upper atmosphere in all seasons. The He densities inside the bulges are 1–2 orders of magnitude greater than those on the dayside. In solstices, the bulges are observed in the winter polar region which is in accordance with the model predictions. In equinoxes, however, the bulges are observed to extend from mid‐latitudes into the southern polar regions (>60°S), which is contrary to the model predictions at mid‐latitudes. These anomalous bulges are predominantly observed in the northern spring equinox and are 10–30 × greater than the modeled ones. During the autumnal equinox, the observed winds depart from the modeled winds. Furthermore, the observed winds point to the southern polar regions where the bulges are observed. Thus, the results of the present study indicate that in equinoxes the regions of local vertical advection, that are responsible for the formation of the bulges, are displaced toward the southern polar regions. The results of the present study point to the need of a larger wind database from NGIMS in southern polar region, particularly during equinoxes.

Observational Evidence and Formation Mechanism of Low‐Density Cells in the Upper Thermosphere on September 8, 2017

AbstractThe low‐density cell structure in the high‐latitude thermosphere is referred to as the density depletion with respect to the adjacent area. Based on Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) accelerometer data during the September 2017 geomagnetic storms, the thermospheric mass density at about 350 km are estimated and further investigated especially in the high‐latitude regions. At least two kinds of low‐density cells over the Southern Hemisphere (SH) are observed along the GRACE orbit. To understand the low‐density cell structures over the SH observed by GRACE, we investigate the underlying physical mechanism based on thermosphere‐ionosphere numerical simulations using Thermosphere‐Ionosphere Electrodynamic General Circulation Model and Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model. According to the simulation results, the formation mechanism of the low‐density cell is attributed to the storm‐time vertical advection and horizontal velocity divergence driven by the auroral ion convection. The critical height of observable low‐density cells is shown to be not less than 350 km. The meridional spatial scale of observed low‐density cells over the SH are approximately or slightly larger than 1,500 km. Three low‐density cells, including two in the dawn sector and one in the night sector were observed about 1 hour after the direction of interplanetary magnetic field BY component reversed. The occurrence of thermospheric low‐density structure is essential to be included in the empirical model during geomagnetic storm time.

Impacts of Lower Thermospheric Atomic Oxygen on Thermospheric Dynamics and Composition Using the Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model

AbstractThe exchange of energy between the lower atmosphere and the ionosphere thermosphere system is not well understood. One of the parameters that is important in the lower thermosphere is atomic oxygen. It has recently been observed that atomic oxygen is higher in summer at ∼95 km. In this study, we investigate the sensitivity of the upper thermosphere to lower thermospheric atomic oxygen using the Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (GITM). We use the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere and ionosphere extension (WACCM‐X) to drive the lower atmospheric boundary of atomic oxygen in GITM between ∼95 and 100 km and compare the results with the current mass spectrometer incoherent scatter (MSIS) driven GITM. MSIS has higher atomic oxygen in the winter hemisphere while WACCM‐X has higher atomic oxygen in the summer hemisphere. The reversal of atomic oxygen distribution affects the pressure distribution between 100 and 120 km, such that the hemisphere with larger O number density has stronger equatorward winds, and lower temperature mainly due to adiabatic and radiative cooling. This affects thermospheric scale heights such that the hemisphere with more O has lower N2 and thus enhanced O/N2. This behavior is observed in the opposite hemisphere when MSIS is used as the lower boundary for GITM. Overall, O/N2 for WACCM‐X driven GITM matches better with the global ultraviolet imager (GUVI) data. We find that the impact of lower thermospheric atomic oxygen on upper thermosphere is not just through diffusive equilibrium but also through secondary effects on winds and temperature.

Evaluation of Total Electron Content Prediction Using Three Ionosphere‐Thermosphere Models

AbstractPrediction of ionospheric state is a critical space weather problem. We expand on our previous research of medium‐range ionospheric forecasts and present new results on evaluating prediction capabilities of three physics‐based ionosphere‐thermosphere models (Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model, TIE‐GCM; Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics Model, CTIPe; and Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model, GITM). The focus of our study is understanding how current modeling approaches may predict the global ionosphere for geomagnetic storms (as studied through 35 storms during 2000–2016). Prediction approach uses physics‐based modeling without any manual model adjustment, quality control, or selection of the results. Our goal is to understand to what extent current physics‐based modeling can be used in total electron content (TEC) prediction and explore uncertainties of these prediction efforts with multiday lead times. The ionosphere‐thermosphere model runs are driven by actual interplanetary conditions, whether those data come from real‐time measurements or predicted values themselves. These model runs were performed by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)‐produced global ionospheric maps (GIMs) were used to validate model TEC estimates. We utilize the True Skill Statistic (TSS) metric for the TEC prediction evaluation, noting that this is but one metric to assess predictive skill and that complete evaluations require combinations of such metrics. The meanings of contingency table elements for the prediction performance are analyzed in the context of ionosphere modeling. Prediction success is between about 0.2 and 0.5 for weak ionospheric disturbances and decreases for strong disturbances. We evaluate the prediction of TEC decreases and increases. Our results indicate that physics‐based modeling during storms shows promise in TEC prediction with multiday lead time.

Numerical Simulation of Ionospheric Depletions Resulting From Rocket Launches Using a General Circulation Model

AbstractRocket exhaust plumes have been observed to cause large‐scale depletions of ionospheric plasmas (“ionospheric holes”). In the F region, charge exchange reactions occur between O+ ions and exhaust species such as H2O, H2, and CO2 to form ions, which then undergo rapid dissociative recombination. The Global Ionosphere‐Thermosphere Model (GITM) was extended to include these chemical reactions and appropriate source terms to represent rocket exhaust plumes. The resulting model allowed for the detailed simulation of advection, diffusion, and chemical interactions of rocket exhaust gasses in the upper atmosphere. This model was applied to ionospheric depletions resulting from the launches of Jason‐3 and FORMOSAT‐5 on SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets from Vandenberg Air Force Base. Outputs from the model were compared with GNSS, ionosonde, and satellite Langmuir probe measurements. Simulation indicated that the FORMOSAT‐5 launch resulted in a far larger and longer‐lived ionospheric depletion than the Jason‐3 launch, consistent with observations. These differences resulted primarily from the deposition of exhaust gasses at higher altitudes in the former case, which resulted in longer residence times in the upper F region where ionospheric plasma was replenished more slowly. Simulation of the FORMOSAT‐5 launch reproduced the approximate size, shape, and motion of the observed ionospheric depletion, which reflected the advection and diffusion of the rocket exhaust gasses through the thermosphere.