Global Infectious Disease Outbreaks Research Articles

Enhanced EPIRISK tool for rapid epidemic risk analysis

ObjectivesThis study aims to create an enhanced EPIRISK tool in order to correctly predict COVID-19 severity in various countries. The original EPIRISK tool was developed in 2018 to predict the epidemic risk and prioritise response. The tool was validated against nine historical outbreaks prior to 2020. However, it rated many high-income countries that had poor performance during the COVID-19 pandemic as having lower epidemic risk. Study designThis study was designed to modify EPIRISK by reparameterizing risk factors and validate the enhanced tool against different outbreaks, including COVID-19. MethodsWe identified three factors that could be indicators of poor performance witnessed in some high-income countries: leadership, culture and universal health coverage. By adding these parameters to EPIRISK, we created a series of models for the calibration and validation. These were tested against non-COVID outbreaks in nine countries and COVID-19 outbreaks in seven countries to identify the best-fit model. The COVID-19 severity was determined by the global incidence and mortality, which were equally divided into four levels. ResultsThe enhanced EPIRISK tool has 17 parameters, including seven disease-related and 10 country-related factors, with an algorithm developed for risk level classification. It correctly predicted the risk levels of COVID-19 for all seven countries and all nine historical outbreaks. ConclusionsThe enhanced EPIRSIK is a multifactorial tool that can be widely used in global infectious disease outbreaks for rapid epidemic risk analysis, assisting first responders, government and public health professionals with early epidemic preparedness and prioritising response to infectious disease outbreaks.

Responding to Future Pandemics: Biosecurity Implications and Defense Considerations

In an evolving and expanding biothreat landscape caused by emerging biotechnologies, increases in global infectious disease outbreaks, and geopolitical instability, the Department of Defense now faces challenges that alter its traditional approach to biothreats and prompt the need for modernized, improved preparedness for—and response to—potential biothreat scenarios. These challenges further complicate specific weaknesses revealed by the COVID-19 pandemic, including the Department’s inability to sustain the military mission while meeting intragovernmental expectations to assist with civilian public health resources and services.

Responding to Future Pandemics: Biosecurity Implications and Defense Considerations

In an evolving and expanding biothreat landscape caused by emerging biotechnologies, increases in global infectious disease outbreaks, and geopolitical instability, the Department of Defense now faces challenges that alter its traditional approach to biothreats and prompt the need for modernized, improved preparedness for—and response to—potential biothreat scenarios. These challenges further complicate specific weaknesses revealed by the COVID-19 pandemic, including the Department’s inability to sustain the military mission while meeting intragovernmental expectations to assist with civilian public health resources and services.

Global Infectious Diseases in August 2023: A Monthly Analysis

Infectious diseases frequently affect children and adults worldwide. Owing to their specific biology and mode of transmission, the presence of infected individuals or carriers in a region often leads to outbreaks of the disease in that region, and in severe cases, to the death of the infected individual. Infectious diseases have been one of the main causes of mass disability or death in humans for centuries. Surveillance of infectious diseases on a continental scale is therefore important for assessing, recognizing, and preventing the risks that these diseases may pose to animal and human health on a global scale. This report focuses on global infectious disease outbreaks and systematically summarises the timing and location of outbreaks in infected populations between 24 July and 23 August 2023 based on the Global Outbreak Information Surveillance System (GOSIS) of Shusi Technologies.

Global Infectious Diseases in June 2023: Monthly Analysis

Infectious diseases are a class of diseases caused by various pathogens that can be transmitted between humans and animals or between humans and animals, thus seriously affecting the development of human society. To control the spread of infectious diseases worldwide and ensure the safety of people’s lives, it is essential to regularly analyze global infectious disease cases. This review is based on data from the World Health Organization, the Centers for Disease Control in countries around the world, Outbreak News Today and many other epidemiological websites to predict the global infectious disease outbreak trend. In addition, using the Shuci Technology global epidemic information monitoring system, we analyzed the distribution of infectious diseases that occurred around the world from 24 May 2023 to 23 June 2023.

Mapping ex ante risks of COVID-19 in Indonesia using a Bayesian geostatistical model on airport network data.

A rapid response to global infectious disease outbreaks is crucial to protect public health. Ex ante information on the spatial probability distribution of early infections can guide governments to better target protection efforts. We propose a two‐stage statistical approach to spatially map the ex ante importation risk of COVID‐19 and its uncertainty across Indonesia based on a minimal set of routinely available input data related to the Indonesian flight network, traffic and population data, and geographical information. In a first step, we use a generalised additive model to predict the ex ante COVID‐19 risk for 78 domestic Indonesian airports based on data from a global model on the disease spread and covariates associated with Indonesian airport network flight data prior to the global COVID‐19 outbreak. In a second step, we apply a Bayesian geostatistical model to propagate the estimated COVID‐19 risk from the airports to all of Indonesia using freely available spatial covariates including traffic density, population and two spatial distance metrics. The results of our analysis are illustrated using exceedance probability surface maps, which provide policy‐relevant information accounting for the uncertainty of the estimates on the location of areas at risk and those that might require further data collection.

The COVID-19 pandemic and sleep medicine: a look back and a look ahead.

Khosla S, Beam E, Berneking M, etal. The COVID-19 pandemic and sleep medicine: a look back and a look ahead. J Clin Sleep Med. 2022;18(8):2045-2050.

Validation of the Turkish version of the obsession with Covid-19 scale (OCS)

Aim: The validity and reliability of the obsession with the COVID-19 scale developed by Lee (2020) were tested in the USA, but there is no research on this matter in Turkey. Within this scope, the aim of the study is to determine the validity and reliability of the scale in Turkish. Material and Methods: The Obsession with COVID-19 Scale (OCS) has been tested in Turkish individuals. Descriptive statistical analysis, t-tests and one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) were used. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was performed to validate the OCS. Maximum likelihood method and confirmatory factor analysis were applied to the model obtained from EFA. Results: The Turkish version of OCS was found to have consistent psychometric properties and construct validity. Discussion: Developing valid screening tools across different cultures is vital for health practitioners and scientists during global infectious disease outbreaks.

Using Emergency Preparedness Strategies to Anticipate and Manage Emotional Responses and Distress during Pandemics

Objective: The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted every country in the world. The responses and outcomes to the pandemic have varied by country. The variations have been associated with the culture, governance, and resources of each country. Emergency preparedness follows the four phases of planning: mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. These phases are integral for a mature and functional emergency plan. Most plans do not factor in the emotional responses and mental health consequences of a pandemic. The purpose of this review is to develop a pandemic strategy that uses the four phases of emergency preparedness planning for training and addressing emotional responses and mental health outcomes of a catastrophic global infectious disease outbreak. Methods: The literature on COVID-19 emergency preparedness and mental health outcomes was reviewed. Results: Emotional reactions to public health measures vary depending on the clarity of communication and guidance by the leaders of each affected community. Isolation, anxiety, and depression are common responses to the impact of a pandemic. Risk factors for depression and mental health challenges include people who are essential frontline health and service workers, isolation, economic insecurity, and the duration of the quarantines. Conclusion: This commentary reviews the various nonmedical factors that contribute to stress and mental health challenges in a pandemic. Recommendations are given for planning and interventions in each of the 4 phases of emergency preparedness.

Risk Communication During COVID-19

During the unprecedented times caused by the novel coronavirus disease 2019, there is rapidly evolving information and guidance. However, a focus must also be on proper and effective risk communication. This is especially the case during pandemics that have high rates of infection, significant morbidity, lack of therapeutic measures, and rapid increases in cases, all of which apply to the current coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. A consequence of poor risk communication and heightened risk perception is hoarding behavior, which can lead to lack of medications and personal protective equipment. One potential way to ensure appropriate risk communication is using social media channels, and ensuring an ongoing consistent media presence. Another important step is to include all stakeholders including members of the allergy community in broader public health messaging. As we continue to face unprecedented times in the allergy community, an understanding and appreciation of risk communication will be essential as we communicate with, and inform, our patients, and our colleagues, moving forward.

Identification of critical airports for controlling global infectious disease outbreaks: Stress-tests focusing in Europe

As the global population increases and transportation connectivity improves in quality and prices, the demand for mobility increases, especially in long-haul services. According to the 2017 report of the European Commission in Mobility and Transport, the performance of all modes for passenger transport (roadways and airways) are reaching record highs. Although the benefits of the increased demand for mobility are substantial and welcome, an effort should be paid such as to ameliorate possible threatening side-effects that may also arise. As World Health Organization (WHO) denotes and as has been evident from the global COVID-19 epidemic outbreak, infectious diseases can be spread directly or indirectly from one person to another under common exposure circumstances such as air transportation (especially long-haul airline connections) that may act as the medium for transmitting and spreading infectious diseases. In this paper, analytical and realistic models have been integrated, for providing evidence on the spread dynamics of infectious diseases that may face Europe through the airlines system. In particular, a detailed epidemiological model has been integrated with the airlines’ and land transport network, able to simulate the epidemic spread of infectious diseases originated from distant locations. Additionally, a wide set of experiments and simulations have been conducted, providing results from detailed stress-tests covering both mild as well as aggressive cases of epidemic spreading scenarios. The results provide convincing evidence on the effectiveness that the European airports' system offer in controlling the emergence of epidemics, but also on the time and extent that controlling measures should be taken in order to break the chain of infections in realistic cases.

The spread of the COVID ‐19 coronavirus

While it is too late to confine the COVID-19 coronovirus outbreak to China, a wealth of data spurs epidemiological and vaccine research.

The Evolution of Public Health Emergency Management as a Field of Practice.

The health impacts of recent global infectious disease outbreaks and other disasters have demonstrated the importance of strengthening public health systems to better protect communities from naturally occurring and human-caused threats. Public health emergency management (PHEM) is an emergent field of practice that draws on specific sets of knowledge, techniques, and organizing principles necessary for the effective management of complex health events. We highlight how the nascent field of PHEM has evolved in recent years. We explore this development by first examining multiple sites of intersection between the fields of public health and emergency management. We then analyze 2 of the principal pillars on which PHEM was built: organizational and programmatic (i.e., industry) standards and the incident management system. This is followed by a sketch of the key domains, or functional areas, of PHEM and their application to the emergency management cycle. We conclude with some observations about PHEM in a global context and discuss how the field might continue to evolve.

Emergency government response team for global infectious disease outbreaks-a Japanese challenge.

The Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa made it clear that international emergency assistance must be strengthened [1]. The Japanese government has contributed to combating infectious disease outbreaks by extending emergency aid to affected countries through international organizations, such as the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Red Cross, and by providing emergency relief directly to affected countries. The Japanese government also dispatches individual experts on infectious diseases to affected regions through the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network of the WHO [2]. During the Ebola virus outbreak, Japan contributed approximately USD173 million in emergency aid and through various technical cooperation programs, and dispatched 20 experts to the affected countries through the WHO [3].

Pandemic influenza: A global challenge for social marketing marketing

Recent years have seen increased attention and concern regarding the potential for pandemic influenza, following large-scale outbreaks of swine flu and bird flu. Governments and health agencies have time to develop social marketing strategies and specific messages that have the potential to minimize fear, refute or inoculate against misinformation that the public may encounter, and enhance the likelihood of the public taking the recommended preventive and remedial actions should these become necessary. This paper presents an overview of how social marketing can be used to tackle the global challenge of pandemic influenza. The potential pandemic influenza poses a major challenge for social marketers (along with governments, health services, and businesses). There are a number of critical factors about a potential pandemic influenza that make it fundamentally different to the majority of issues to which social marketing has previously been applied. The underlying principles of social marketing are equally applicable to a global infectious disease outbreak (such as pandemic influenza). Even if the current strains do not become pandemic, social marketers should use this impetus to develop the skills and resources to address future communicable disease outbreaks. This paper applies the concepts of social marketing to a unique health issue which has the potential to become one of the largest global public health crises in history, but which can be tackled with effective global social marketing.

Bird flu: A virus of our own hatching

Bird flu: A virus of our own hatching

Responding to global infectious disease outbreaks: Lessons from SARS on the role of risk perception, communication and management

With increased globalisation comes the likelihood that infectious disease appearing in one country will spread rapidly to another, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) being a recent example. However, although SARS infected some 10,000 individuals, killing around 1000, it did not lead to the devastating health impact that many feared, but a rather disproportionate economic impact. The disproportionate scale and nature of this impact has caused concern that outbreaks of more serious disease could cause catastrophic impacts on the global economy. Understanding factors that led to the impact of SARS might help to deal with the possible impact and management of such other infectious disease outbreaks. In this respect, the role of risk—its perception, communication and management—is critical. This paper looks at the role that risk, and especially the perception of risk, its communication and management, played in driving the economic impact of SARS. It considers the public and public health response to SARS, the role of the media and official organisations, and proposes policy and research priorities for establishing a system to better deal with the next global infectious disease outbreak. It is concluded that the potential for the rapid spread of infectious disease is not necessarily a greater threat than it has always been, but the effect that an outbreak can have on the economy is, which requires further research and policy development.