Global House Price Research Articles

Dynamic effects of geopolitical risks and infectious diseases on real estate markets

PurposeGeopolitical risks (GPR) and increase in equity market volatility due to health pandemics have great implications on assets prices around the world. Many empirical studies have focused on the effects of these risks on different financial assets. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to this related literature by examining the dynamic effects of GPRs and infectious diseases–induced equity market volatility on regional and global house price indexes.Design/methodology/approachThis paper explores the asymmetric effects of infectious diseases and GPRs on house prices across different market conditions using the quantile regression approach. This technique enables us to examine the nonlinear asymmetric effects of GPRs and infectious diseases on both global and regional house price indexes using daily data from January 1, 2011, to June 3, 2022. It focuses on both the effects of a composite measure of GPR as well as the disaggregated effects of threats and acts (war) on the real estate markets under different market conditions.FindingsThe main findings of this study demonstrates that the effects of geopolitical and infectious diseases–related risks vary differently across regional real estate markets and the nature of the GPR. In particular, the effects of geopolitical threats are stronger than those of geopolitical acts, especially for the European, Asia-Pacific and North American regions during bullish market periods. Except for the effects of geopolitical threats during real estate market downturns, the African real estate market appears to be insulated from the effects of GPRs across all market conditions. Also, the authors show that infectious diseases increase losses in real estate investments when the market condition is bearish for all markets and could extend toward the normal market period for the North American, Asia-Pacific and European markets. However, across all the market conditions, the effects of the composite index of GPRs are not significant for the Asia-Pacific and European regional markets. Results are mixed for the remaining markets, especially for the global market. Whereas during bearish market periods, the effect is positive, it becomes negative when the market condition become normal and insignificant when it becomes bullish. For the North American and African regional markets, the effect is positive under the bearish market state.Originality/valueIncrease in equity market volatility due to infectious diseases as well as conflicts and tensions among major powers, including potential risks of financial instability, all lead to significant increase in shocks to financial markets. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to analyze the asymmetric and comparative effects of GPRs and infectious diseases–related equity market volatility on real estate investments across different regions and market conditions. Because of the complexity of these risks and policy shifts, and the characteristics and heterogeneity of different regional financial markets, the impacts of shock from these risks are intuitively diverse, with practical implications for portfolio management.

Making sense of increased synchronization in global house prices

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide perspective on whether and why global metro house prices have become more synchronized, and perspective on the limited implications of this for investing in international real estate. Design/methodology/approach This paper reviews main findings from the literature on house price determination, reviews the emerging literature on global synchronization, and provides graphs to illustrate main points and trends. Findings House prices have become somewhat more synchronized likely reflecting greater correlation in long-term interest rates and macroeconomic cycles related to trends in globalization and international portfolio diversification. Nevertheless, this trend has not been continuous, reflecting that house prices depend on other fundamentals, which are not uniform across areas. Theory and evidence indicate that the more common are fundamentals, the more synchronized are house price cycles and the more substitution effects may matter. Also, real estate markets that are open to immigration and foreign investment have become more sensitive to shifts in the international demand for property by migrants or investors. Research limitations/implications Changes in international house price synchronization stem from variation in two categories of key drivers of house prices. The first are traditional supply and demand fundamentals. The second include international capital flows and immigration. Both sets of factors are sensitive to the economic environment and public policy. Increased synchronization of business cycles, the Euro currency union, and more common monetary policy strategies and tactics have fostered greater correlation of real interest rates across countries, which tend to increase house price synchronization. These effects can be amplified by the tendency for property owners to use extrapolative expectations of future house prices. Practical implications Shifts in prospective returns and the synchronization of international property returns not only on arbitrage of general property price differentials but also on underlying factors driving those differentials. Investors need to be mindful of the risks that metro prices sometimes reflect bubble-builder dynamics that can give rise to over-shooting of house prices. Observing simple correlations and changes in those correlations does not do away with the need for careful analysis of property investment, and if anything, warrant analysis of both how and why one may observe changes in the extent to which international house prices is synchronized. Social implications Despite the rise of globalization and of new technologies, the author has seen substantial divergences in house prices emerge across gateway cities and metros in less vibrant areas within countries. These reflect not only the impact of stronger income and population in more tech, educated and global oriented cities but also changes in the demand for amenities toward more culturally appealing cities, often – but not exclusively in – warmer or coastal areas where the supply elasticity of housing is often limited. Further complicating investment decisions are potential shifts in housing or immigration policy that can notably affect the demand for housing. Originality/value The paper provides practical perspective on why different groups of international cities have seen their house prices become more sychronized. Nevertheless, increased synchronization has occurred within an elite set of major cities, but in an environment house prices have diverged across gateway cities and metros in less vibrant areas within countries. The paper helps investors make sense of some recent patterns and recent prospects for investing in international real estate.

An Investigation of the Synchronization in Global House Prices

We review the main studies on house price synchronization and conduct an empirical analysis using OECD house price indices. We provide a discussion of the contributing factors of synchronization, with a focus on the demand and supply dimensions. Synchronization across both countries and cities is examined. We report that housing markets globally have become more synchronized, this being particularly clear for cities. Sustained demand for places that are attractive for financial motives but also for lifestyle and sometimes climate, combined with the concurrent fact that such places tend also to be supply-constrained, is likely to lead to more synchronization across markets. The conclusions are important for investors seeking to diversify their housing holdings internationally. The discussion also has policy implications.

An investigation of the synchronization in global house prices

PurposeThe purpose of this paper to provide a discussion of the empirical evidence and contributing factors of the synchronization of house prices globally.Design/methodology/approachThe author reviewed the main studies on house price synchronization and conducted an empirical analysis using OECD house price indices. A discussion of the contributing factors of synchronization, with a focus on the demand and supply dimensions is provided, and synchronization across both countries and cities is examined.FindingsHousing markets globally have become more synchronized; this is particularly clear for cities. The sustained demand for places that are attractive for financial motives and for lifestyle and sometimes climate along with the fact that such places tend to be supply-constrained is likely to lead to more synchronization across markets.Practical implicationsThe conclusions are important for investors seeking to diversify their housing holdings internationally. The discussion should also benefit policy-makers.Originality/valueTo date, very scarce evidence exists on the synchronization of house prices globally. By surveying the results contained in previous studies and providing a thorough discussion of the possible drivers of house price synchronization, this study contributes to a better understanding of this important topic.

Housing slump could cut world growth to decade‐low

▀ A combined slump in house prices and housing investment in the major economies could cut world growth to a 10‐year low of 2.2% by 2020 – and to below 2% if it also triggered a tightening in global credit conditions. ▀ In such a scenario, inflation would remain well below target in the main economies, and US Fed rates would be up to 100 basis points lower than in our baseline by 2021. ▀ Signs of a global house price downturn are already visible, with around a third of our sample of economies seeing falling prices and world residential investment starting to decline. High house price valuations add to the risk that this downturn will deepen in the coming quarters, hitting consumer spending. ▀ Using the Oxford Global Economic Model, we find that a 10% fall in house prices and an 8% fall in housing investment both cut growth by around 0.3%‐0.4% across regions. Adding a sharp Chinese downturn, such as that seen in 2015, has a large additional impact on growth in Asia.

Assessing the risks from high house prices

▀ Global house price growth is slowing but remains relatively solid and, therefore, supportive of the global upturn. There are rising risks, however: prices are stagnating or falling in some highly valued markets; some emerging markets are facing local financial stresses; and OECD housing valuations, while well below the 2006–07 peak, are now comparable to earlier peak levels. ▀ Our in‐house world house price index shows real (inflation‐adjusted) growth falling from 4% in mid‐2017 to 2.7% in Q2 2018. This is slightly above the long‐term average rate since 1997. But trends across economies are very varied – price growth is rapid in Hong Kong, the Netherlands and Mexico but negative in Canada, Italy, Brazil, Turkey and Sweden. ▀ There are some signs that high valuations are now weighing on price growth, with most highly‐valued markets seeing stagnant or negative price growth. There are a few notable exceptions that may be risk hot‐spots for the future: Hong Kong, Ireland, the Netherlands and New Zealand are combining rapid price growth with relatively high valuations. ▀ Median OECD house price valuations are below the 2006–07 peak but are higher for a several risky markets. Historical experience suggests that high valuations – of 125% or more of the long‐term average – point to a 60% chance of prices falling over the next five years. This matters because house prices can have a big impact on economic activity, even if the link may have loosened in the G7 in recent years. ▀ Looking across a range of housing risk indicators, property market dangers look concentrated in a number of smaller advanced economies and are less severe for the largest economies. The potential ‘trigger’ of rising interest rates is limited or missing for most advanced countries (although it is not strictly needed for prices to start falling) but is present for some emerging countries.

Examining current trends in global house prices

Examining current trends in global house prices

Specification and Estimation of Bayesian Dynamic Factor Models: A Monte Carlo Analysis with an Application to Global House Price Comovement

We compare methods to measure comovement in business cycle data using multi-level dynamic factor models. To do so, we employ a Monte Carlo procedure to evaluate model performance for different specifications of factor models across three different estimation procedures. We consider three general factor model specifications used in applied work. The first is a single- factor model, the second a two-level factor model, and the third a three-level factor model. Our estimation procedures are the Bayesian approach of Otrok and Whiteman (1998), the Bayesian state space approach of Kim and Nelson (1998) and a frequentist principal components approach. The latter serves as a benchmark to measure any potential gains from the more computationally intensive Bayesian procedures. We then apply the three methods to a novel new dataset on house prices in advanced and emerging markets from Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes, and Rebucci (2015) and interpret the empirical results in light of the Monte Carlo results.

No Price Like Home: Global House Prices, 1870–2012

How have house prices evolved over the long run? This paper presents annual house prices for 14 advanced economies since 1870. We show that real house prices stayed constant from the nineteenth to the mid-twentieth century, but rose strongly and with substantial cross-country variation in the second half of the twentieth century. Land prices, not replacement costs, are the key to understanding the trajectory of house prices. Rising land prices explain about 80 percent of the global house price boom that has taken place since World War II. Our findings have implications for the evolution of wealth-to-income ratios, the growth effects of agglomeration, and the price elasticity of housing supply. (JEL C43, N10, N90, R31)

No Price Like Home: Global House Prices, 1870–2012

How have house prices evolved in the long-run? This paper presents annual house price indices for 14 advanced economies since 1870. Based on extensive data collection, we are able to show for the first time that house prices in most industrial economies stayed constant in real terms from the 19th to the mid-20th century, but rose sharply in recent decades. Land prices, not construction costs, hold the key to understanding the trajectory of house prices in the long-run. Residential land prices have surged in the second half of the 20th century, but did not increase meaningfully before. We argue that before World War II dramatic reductions in transport costs expanded the supply of land and suppressed land prices. Since the mid-20th century, comparably large land-augmenting reductions in transport costs no longer occurred. Increased regulations on land use further inhibited the utilization of additional land, while rising expenditure shares for housing services increased demand.

Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants

We examine the properties of house price fluctuations across eighteen advanced economies over the past forty years. We ask two specific questions: First, how synchronized are housing cycles across these countries? Second, what are the main shocks driving movements in global house prices? To address these questions, we first estimate the global components in house prices and various macroeconomic and financial variables. We then evaluate the roles played by a variety of global shocks, including shocks to interest rates, monetary policy, productivity, credit, and uncertainty, in explaining house price fluctuations using a wide range of FAVAR models. We find that house prices are synchronized across countries, and the degree of synchronization has increased over time. Global interest rate shocks tend to have a significant negative effect on global house prices whereas global monetary policy shocks per se do not appear to have a sizeable impact. Interestingly, uncertainty shocks seem to be important in explaining fluctuations in global house prices.

Comment

Comment

Optimal Mortgage Contract Choice Decision in the Presence of Pay Option Adjustable Rate Mortgage and the Balloon Mortgage

The unprecedented run-up in global house prices of the 2000s was preceded by a revolution in U.S. mortgage markets in which borrowers faced a plethora of mortgages to choose from collectively known as nontraditional mortgages (NTMs), whose poor performance helped ignite the global financial crisis in 2007. This paper studies the choice of mortgage contracts in an expanded framework where the menu of contracts includes the pay option adjustable rate mortgage (PO-ARM), and the balloon mortgage (BM), alongside the traditional long horizon fixed rate mortgage (FRM) and the short horizon regular ARM. The inclusion of the PO-ARM is based on the fact it is the most controversial and perhaps the riskiest of the NTMs, whereas the BM has not been analyzed in the literature despite its different risk-sharing arrangement and long vintage. Our inclusive model relates the structural differences of these contracts to the horizon risk management problems and affordability constraints faced by the households that differ in terms of expected mobility. The numerical solutions of the model generates a number of interesting results suggesting that households select mortgage contracts to match their horizon, manage horizon risk and mitigate liquidity or affordability constraints they face. From a risk management and welfare perspectives, we find that the optimal contract for households with shorter horizons, specifically households who expect to move house once every 1 to 2 years, is the PO-ARM. Beyond 2 years the welfare advantage of the PO-ARM diminishes and BM becomes the more optimal contract up to 5-year horizon. Overall, the results suggest that households are neither as risk averse as the selection of the FRM would suggest, nor are they as risk-seeking as the selection of PO-ARM or regular ARM would suggest. The results also suggest that the exuberance demonstrated for NTMs by borrowers, especially PO-ARMs, may be both rational and irrational.

Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants

We examine the properties of house price fluctuations across 18 advanced economies over the past 40 years. We ask two specific questions: First, how synchronized are housing cycles across these countries? Second, what are the main shocks driving movements in global house prices? To address these questions, we first estimate the global components in house prices and various macroeconomic and financial variables. We then evaluate the roles played by a variety of global shocks, including shocks to interest rates, monetary policy, productivity, credit, and uncertainty, in explaining house price fluctuations using a wide range of FAVAR models. We find that house prices are synchronized across countries, and the degree of synchronization has increased over time. Global interest rate shocks tend to have a significant negative effect on global house prices whereas global monetary policy shocks per se do not appear to have a sizeable impact. Interestingly, uncertainty shocks seem to be important in explaining fluctuations in global house prices.

Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants

We examine the properties of house price fluctuations across 18 advanced economies over the past 40 years. We ask two specific questions: First, how synchronized are housing cycles across these countries? Second, what are the main shocks driving movements in global house prices? To address these questions, we first estimate the global components in house prices and various macroeconomic and financial variables. We then evaluate the roles played by a variety of global shocks, including shocks to interest rates, monetary policy, productivity, credit, and uncertainty, in explaining house price fluctuations using a wide range of FAVAR models. We find that house prices are synchronized across countries, and the degree of synchronization has increased over time. Global interest rate shocks tend to have a significant negative effect on global house prices whereas global monetary policy shocks per se do not appear to have a sizeable impact. Interestingly, uncertainty shocks seem to be important in explaining fluctuations in global house prices.

Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants

Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants

Why House Price Indexes Differ: Measurement and Analysis

A key element in the build-up to the global recession and subsequently was the movement in house price indexes (HPIs). These indexes are particularly prone to methodological and coverage differences which can undermine both within-country and cross-country economic analysis. The paper outlines key measurement issues and reports on empirical work using an international panel data set that (i) considers whether differences in HPI measurement matter and, if so, in what way, and (ii) revisits the measurement of global house price inflation and the modeling of the determinants of house price inflation using HPIs corrected for differences in measurement practice.

Why House Price Indexes Differ: Measurement and Analysis

A key element in the build-up to the global recession and subsequently was the movement in house price indexes (HPIs). These indexes are particularly prone to methodological and coverage differences which can undermine both within-country and cross-country economic analysis. The paper outlines key measurement issues and reports on empirical work using an international panel data set that (i) considers whether differences in HPI measurement matter and, if so, in what way, and (ii) revisits the measurement of global house price inflation and the modeling of the determinants of house price inflation using HPIs corrected for differences in measurement practice.

The Global House Price Boom and its Unwinding: An Analysis and a Commentary

The unprecedented rises in house prices across much of the industrialized world during the period 1997–2006 have been closely linked to the massive global credit expansion of the past decade. They have also coincided with the highest rates of growth of the global economy on record. The downturn of house prices in the US that began in late 2006 has been the trigger for the US sub-prime crisis, itself the catalyst for the broad financial crisis that began in August 2007 which by September 2008 had become the worst US financial crisis since 1929. As a result, the structure of the highly influential US mortgage finance system has already changed fundamentally. These US problems will lead to a thorough review of mortgage securitization processes and of the wholesale funding of mortgage finance across the world. However, housing markets and housing finance systems differ significantly between countries and will channel the shocks originating from the US with varying intensity. Given the interdependence of the global economy, the quality of the US policy response and its impact on the depth and duration of the US recession will influence house price downturns in all other countries. This paper, written in the midst of the US crisis, looks to our understanding of fundamental economic and financial relationships: first, to describe the key features of the house price boom; second, to examine the likely impacts of the unwinding of that boom; and, finally, to bring out implications for affordability, the provision of housing credit and the most appropriate forms of tenure for higher risk households.

Sowing the seeds for the subprime crisis: does global liquidity matter for housing and other asset prices?

We assess the relationship between global liquidity and two important classes of asset prices on a global scale. For this purpose, we estimate a variety of VAR models for the global economy using aggregated data which represent the major OECD countries. According to the impulse responses obtained a positive shock to global liquidity raises the global house price index and later on via commodity prices also the global GDP deflator to the same extent. Hence, we conclude that there are subsequent spill-over effects from house prices to the overall price level. However, we are not able to find any empirical evidence in favor of the hypothesis that stock prices significantly react to changes in global liquidity.