Global Financial Crisis Period Research Articles

Examining the Shifting Dynamics of the Beveridge Curve in the Turkish Labor Market during Crises

Following the global financial crisis, an increasing amount of attention has been directed towards examining the Beveridge curve (BC), which indicates the relationship between unemployment and vacancy rates. This research analyzes the unemployment–vacancy rate dynamics in the Turkiye labor market during both the global financial crisis and COVID-19 periods. The findings from this study demonstrate that the labor market exhibits deteriorating efficiency, as evidenced by movement of BC away from the origin. The unemployment and vacancy rates both increase over time, with a leftward (rightward) shift of BC during the global financial crisis (COVID-19) period. The study also reveals that both crises had no significant effect on unemployment–vacancy rate dynamics. In the Turkish labor market, there exists a situation where the vacancy rate is in shortfall of the unemployment level in Turkiye. This creates a positive relationship between these two factors. The labor market in Turkiye experiences inefficiencies as it struggles to generate a sufficient number of jobs to meet the demand from job seekers.

기업의 기부금 지출 결정요인

Corporate donations is one of the most traditional firm policy for the corporate social responsibility. This paper examines the determinants of corporate donations using Tobit model. I constructed the firm-level panel data of 683 listed companies in Korea from 2000 to 2022. The estimation results find out that the corporate donations increase as the firm size is bigger, the debt ratio is lower, and the cash-flow ratio is higher. ROA has a significantly positive impact on the corporate donations during the whole analysis period, but it loses its significance for the sub-sample excluding global financial crisis and Corona-19 pandemic period. The results also show that firms donate more as they spends more money on advertising and R&D expenditure. Reduction of corporate tax rate in 2009 decreased the corporate donations significantly, and it has not been recovered to the initial level before the tax cut even after the tax rate re-increased in 2018. Change in tax deduction policy in 2014 did not affect corporate donations.

Post global financial crisis multiplex financial network structure longevity: Does it predict re-globalization? Empirical investigation for 234 countries

Research background: International capital flows show decreasing trend after each financial crisis as countries become unwilling to invest in risky counterparties. Recent discussions over structural changes within the global financial network suggest that its structure may be still undergoing some changes. Uncovered weaknesses of over-connectedness with unstable un-ally countries during global financial crisis were further highlighted by recent Covid-19 pandemic. However, previous research suggest that important structural changes happened after global financial crisis. Thus, such situation raises a question whether post global financial crisis multiplex network structure is long-term and is it exhibiting re-globalization pattern as suggested by re-globalization megatrend. Purpose of the article: The main objective of the paper is to assess post global financial crisis multiplex financial network structure longevity and to identify whether it exhibits re-globalization pattern. Methods: Multiplex financial network mapping, network topological analysis and structure longevity methods were employed to evaluate network connectedness, topological structural properties of multiplex financial network and its’ structure longevity. 5-layer multiplex financial network was mapped for different types of capital flows for each layer: net direct and portfolio investments in debt, equity and net banking assets for each year in the post global financial crisis period 2009–2020. Each network layer employed bilateral data from up to 234 countries of the world. Next step of research employed a set of network-level measures defining topological features of each network in the period of 2009–2020 in order to capture the trend of structural changes and evidence of re-globalization. The final stage analyzes multiplex financial network structure by layer and country longevity. Findings & value added: Analysis reveals that stock (positions) multiplex financial network aggregate connectedness, i.e., density and value, increased during post- global financial crisis period until Covid-19 pandemic period, thus, suggesting that globalization in terms of stock is continuing. Topological structural properties of multiplex financial network changed as number of strongly and weakly connected countries decreased and more countries became included in network. Longevity analysis of layer and country structure within multiplex financial network reveal that banking and debt investments are increasing since 2018, while equity part is decreasing. Developed countries, i.e., the United Kingdom and Germany, decrease in multiplex financial network structure, while developing, especially from Asia region (i.e., Hong Kong SAR, China and Singapore) increase. Such empirical results support the re-globalization megatrend in terms of investment type and counterparty structure as highlighted by most recent scientific discussion showing that it started early after global financial crisis. Research also uncovers some regional trends of Asia region increasing in investment network structure, while Europe decreasing. As developing countries attract more and more investment and further develop, global cost saving and, thus, returns from global investment into these countries may be decreasing, resulting in lower gain from globalization. Our analysis may facilitate investment strategy decisions by suggesting that even though gains from globalization might be decreasing, instead of localization, countries could follow ally investment strategy to manage the risk of over-dependency from unstable counterparty while preserving globalization wealth.

China's risk contagion using the mixed-frequency macro-financial network

We explore and compare the fundamental laws of risk contagion under different shocks during the global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic periods. Using the daily returns of financial market indices and the monthly growth rates of macroeconomic data for two periods, from January 1, 2003, to December 31, 2010, and from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2021, we construct a macro-financial network with the mixed-frequency vector autoregression (MF-VAR) method to produce well-defined measures of intra-system and cross-system risk contagion. We investigate the differences in risk contagion under different types of major events using an event study model. The empirical results show that the financial system is the center of risk contagion. Regarding the direction of the cross-system risk contagion, the risk contagion from the financial to the macroeconomic system dominates the contagion in the opposite direction. The impacts of financial and pandemic shocks on the macro-financial risk contagion differ significantly. Importantly, both investor sentiment and consumer confidence mediate these impacts, providing useful insights into the prevention of risk contagion.

Analysing the Impact of Crises on Financial Performance: Empirical Insights from Tourism and Transport Companies Listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange (during 2005–2022)

To adapt to the business environment, organisations adhere to management strategies capable of removing the effects of negative events, transforming themselves into resilient organisations. Physical and mental difficulties are the consequences of recent corporate developments, and protecting these organisations is a significant concern for managers. Using regression analysis of panel data, we evaluate the effectiveness and performance of 34 tourism and transport companies listed on the BSE in the 2005–2022 period by testing the effect of leverage on financial performance. Then, we focus on identifying the effects of recent crises (the global financial crisis of 2007–2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic) on financial performance and, implicitly, on organisational resilience. The findings suggest that the research hypotheses were partially validated, noting that the indicators included in the study registered significant decreases for the COVID-19 crisis period compared to the global financial crisis period. The paper provides information on measuring the resilience of companies through their ability to withstand the global financial crisis and the crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. This study is also among the first to examine the role of financial crises in the leverage and financial performance relationship in Romania.

International stock market volatility: A global tail risk sight

This paper constructs a global tail risk (GTR) index and investigates the role of GTR in predicting the volatility of international stock markets. The results emphasize that GTR contains valuable information to predict the stock volatility of group (7) (G7) countries. In addition, accounting for the information of GTR and regime switching together can further improve the forecasting accuracy of international stock market volatility, especially considering the time-varying regime switching. The results are robust in different robustness checks and even during the global financial crisis period. Our paper tries to provide new evidence for tail risk in international stock market volatility prediction.

Symmetric and Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Stock Prices in Fragile Five Economies: Analysis of the Global Crisis and Pandemic Period

This study examined the symmetric and asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on stock prices in the economies of India, Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey, collectively known as the "Fragile Five" due to their similar economic dynamics in light of the global financial crisis and pandemic period. The study uses monthly data from July 2000 to July 2022, and panel autoregressive distributive lag and panel nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag models to investigate the effects of exchange rate changes on stock prices in the Fragile Five economies. Prior to the global financial crisis, exchange rate changes have both long- and short-term asymmetric effects on stock prices in the Fragile Five economies. However, after the global financial crisis, exchange rate changes have both short- and long-term asymmetric and symmetric effects. Similarly, exchange rate changes also have asymmetric effects on stock prices during the COVID-19 period.

Corporate risk disclosures in turbulent times: An international analysis in the global financial crisis

AbstractFocusing on the global financial crisis period, this paper examines risk disclosure patterns and outcomes in a cross‐country setting. We build on prior risk disclosure literature and draw upon institutional and agency‐based theoretical lenses to investigate the nature, comprehensiveness, evolution, and quality of disclosed risk information for matched samples of manufacturing firms in the United States, Canada, Germany, and China (Chinese Hong Kong‐listed firms). The results show a high degree of heterogeneity in risk disclosure behavior and volume among the sample firms attributed to both institutional differences and corporate reporting incentives in the study period. Furthermore, we document significant associations between risk proxies, risk disclosures, and firm market performance suggesting that corporate risk disclosures are potentially informative and useful to investors and other stakeholders. The paper highlights the important joint role of corporate incentives and legal institutions in interpreting and implementing accounting standards and stock exchange listing regulations around the world and during turbulent times.

A-DCC GARCH모형을 이용한 주식, 채권 및 외환시장의 변동성 간의 동적 관계

Purpose - This research aims to analyze the interrelationship among the volatility of stock price, interest rate, and exchange rate in Korea. The main topics are volatility spillovers and the asymmetric behaviors of each market’s volatility and correlation.
 Design/Methodology/Approach - This research adopts Engle et al.’s (2006) asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation (A-DCC) GARCH models with student t error distribution. The models are a GJR GARCH model with spillovers and a revised Koutmos (1996) EGARCH model. The full sample is divided into four sub-sample periods, including the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.
 Findings - The results show no volatility spillovers among the returns of stock price, interest rate, and exchange rate. However, there are unidirectional spillovers originating from the exchange rate in the global crisis period, and from stock price to exchange rate in the COVID-19 period. Volatility asymmetry is consistently shown in stock price, while the others vary by period. Finally, the asymmetric correlation effects are found only in recent times.
 Research Implications - In the long-run, the volatility spillovers among financial markets are not shown. However, there is also evidence that volatility spillovers are time-varying, intensifying in times of stress. In the global financial crisis period, the exchange rate influences other markets, while in recent the COVID-19 period stock price seems to play that role. Asymmetric volatility is also time-varying, except in stock price, and recently correlation asymmetry is shown very significantly.

A finite-time singularity in the dynamics of the US equity market: Will the US equity market eventually collapse?

Fitting Dow Jones 30 index data for the 1790–1999 period into a log-periodic power-law singularity (LPPLS) model, the seminal paper by Johansen and Sornette (2001) was the first to show that the US equity growth rate is accelerating such that the market is growing as a power law toward a spontaneous singularity. Their model suggests that the US equity market will reach this critical point in the year 2052 ± 10 years, signaling an abrupt transition to a new regime. This study re-examines this important issue using (i) a novel approach to calibrate the LPPLS model and (ii) a different data set including >20 years of additional data. The extended data account for the dot.com bubble burst (2000), the Global Financial Crisis period (2008–2009), the COVID−19 crisis (2020−2022), and the ongoing Russian–Ukrainian war (starting in 2022), which are all events with severe consequences for the global economy. The calibrated LPPLS model suggests that the US equity market will reach a singularity condition by June 2050.

Testing the Adaptive Market Hypothesis in Equity Markets in Global Financial Crisis Periods: An Application on Borsa Istanbul Indices

We aim in this study to investigate the existence of the Adaptive Market Hypothesis in the Turkish stock market during the global crisis periods. In other words, it has been investigated whether there are periods in the stock market in Turkey is both efficient and inefficient. For this purpose, Borsa Istanbul's main index (XU100) and selected sector indices (XBANK, XGIDA, XTEKS, XTRZM) were tested in the crisis environments, the Asian Financial Crisis, the American "Dotcom" crisis, the Mortgage crisis, the European debt crisis and finally the Covid-19 crisis. Automatic Portmanteau and Wild Bootstrap Automatic Variance Ratio tests were used in the research. According to the results obtained, findings compatible with the Adaptive Market Hypothesis were reached in all Borsa Istanbul indices within the scope of the research. It has been observed that there may be fluctuations in market efficiency at different frequencies and durations in relation to the nature of the crisis and the source of its output. It is thought that the study is original and will contribute to the literature for the following reasons; the Adaptive Market Hypothesis for the Turkish stock market has been tested for all crisis periods in the recent history and the effects of the crises on the sectors are also examined in terms of effectiveness.

An Enquiry into Technical, Pure Technical, and Scale Efficiencies of Indian Public and Private Banks in Post Global Financial Crisis Period

An Enquiry into Technical, Pure Technical, and Scale Efficiencies of Indian Public and Private Banks in Post Global Financial Crisis Period

Capital buffers, business models and the probability of bank distress: a dynamic panel investigation

PurposeThis paper aims to improve the debate linking the business models of banks to their riskiness by checking if diversification exerts different impacts on the probability of bank distress depending on the level of capital buffers.Design/methodology/approachThe paper focuses on a sample of listed bank holding companies observed between 2007:Q3 and 2022:Q4. The authors use three subindexes of bank diversification. The authors estimate a dynamic model specification using a system generalized method of moments with robust standard errors and consistent estimators under heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation within a panel. Sensitivity and robustness checks are performed.FindingsAsset and income diversification increase the probability of distress in low-capitalized banks during normal periods (excluding periods of crises and high uncertainty). Concerning crisis periods, a marginal increase in asset diversification during the global financial crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic crisis induces a more important increase in the probability of failure of well-capitalized banks relative to low-capitalized ones. Contrary to the results obtained for the GFC period, well-capitalized banks were found to pursue more careful funding diversification in reaction to the sudden increase of uncertainty during the Russia–Ukraine war.Research limitations/implicationsPrudential supervision should concentrate on well-capitalized banks to encompass unexpected excessive risk-taking during crisis periods. Regulatory requirements should constrain fragile banks to avoid pursuing assets and income diversification strategies that increase earnings volatility.Originality/valueThe main originality of this paper is to consider the interaction between three different dimensions of bank diversification and capital regulation during stable and unstable periods using the marginal effect analysis. Moreover, this paper uses, initially, the GFC as the reference crisis period to study the impact of capital buffers and diversification interactions on the probability of bank distress. Then, the authors extend the observation period until 2022:Q4 to include two additional major events, namely, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war.

Earnings forecast disclosures and oversubscription rates of fixed-price initial public offerings (IPOs): the case of Malaysia

PurposeThe main purpose of this study is to examine the disclosure of earnings forecasts in firms' prospectuses to explain investor demands or, in other words, oversubscription rates of Malaysian initial public offerings (IPOs).Design/methodology/approachOrdinary least squares and robust methods were used to examine cross-sectional data comprising 466 fixed-price IPOs reported for the period from January 2000 to February 2020 on Bursa Malaysia.FindingsThe results showed that IPOs with earnings forecasts obtained higher oversubscription rates than those without earnings forecasts. IPOs with earnings forecasts provide value-relevant signals to prospective investors about the good prospects of firms, resulting in an increase in the demand for IPO shares. For the IPO samples listed during the global financial crisis (GFC) period, IPOs with earnings forecasts had negative impacts on the oversubscription rates. These results were robust to quantile methods and the two-stage least squares method.Research limitations/implicationsThe research findings provide fresh information for investors regarding the importance of earnings forecasts as a trustworthy signal of a firm’s quality when making share subscription decisions.Practical implicationsThe regulator is advised to encourage issuers to include earnings forecasts in their prospectuses since such forecasts help to increase the demand for IPOs.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the literature by offering empirical evidence regarding the signalling impact of earnings forecast disclosures on investor demands for Malaysian IPOs. Moreover, this study provides evidence demonstrating the impact of earnings forecast disclosures on oversubscription rates of Malaysian IPOs during the GFC period.

An Enquiry into Technical, Pure Technical, and Scale Efficiencies of Indian Public and Private Banks in Post Global Financial Crisis Period

An Enquiry into Technical, Pure Technical, and Scale Efficiencies of Indian Public and Private Banks in Post Global Financial Crisis Period

FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY OF A FIRM: DEBT-BASED OR EQUITY-BASED FINANCING TO PURSUE?

This study examines the potential of utilizing equity-based financing by companies in achieving financial sustainability as compared to debt-based financing. To this end, a conceptual framework of equity-based financing over debt-based financing is developed to provide an understanding of the concept of equity-based financing. Subsequently, this study analyses the credit risk exposure between equity and debt for selected sectors in Malaysia. More specifically, a Monte Carlo method is employed to examine the feasibility of the equity-based financing model in fostering the financial sustainability of companies through simulation of equity-based and debt-based financing models from the global financial crisis (GFC) period to the Covid-19 phase. This study finds that equity-based financing can reduce credit risk exposure when returns are tied to the company’s performance. The findings also show that equity-based financing can achieve financial sustainability regardless of any economic events. To conclude, equity-based financing can thus be a viable capital financing option for companies because it can contribute to long-term financial sustainability.

Combination forecast based on financial stress categories for global equity market volatility: the evidence during the COVID-19 and the global financial crisis periods

ABSTRACT The 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic both decrease economic growth and lead to high uncertainty in global stock markets, and financial stress information is closely linked to financial crises. To improve the predictability of the realized volatility of the global equity indices during crises, we examine the predictive role of the Global Financial Stress Index (GFSI) and its categories. We find that the combination predictions based on GFSI’s five incorporated categories and three region-based categories outperform the predictions based on the raw GFSI for most indices. Specifically, the DMSPE combination model with a low discount factor has accurate forecasts for 5- and 22-day-ahead realized volatility, and it also performs better than the equal-weighted and the trimmed mean combination methods. In this study, we present a comprehensive analysis of the predictive role of financial stress information in stock market volatility during crises, and the empirical evidence provides a positive case against the ‘forecast combination puzzle’. Our findings are very instructive for policymakers and investors to make their own short-term and long-term plans in crisis.

Real-Time Identification and High-Frequency Analysis of Deposits Outflows

AbstractWe propose a method based on control charts to identify in real-time sudden deposits outflows through the payment system. The performance of the methodology is assessed with both Monte Carlo simulations and real transaction-level TARGET2 data for a large sample of Italian banks. We identify a set of idiosyncratic bank stress episodes. Using high-frequency payment system data, we provide new evidences on the interaction between retail, wholesale, and central bank funding in the post global financial crisis period.

Dynamic Dependency between the Shariah and Traditional Stock Markets: Diversification Opportunities during the COVID-19 and Global Financial Crisis (GFC) Periods

The aim of the present research is to highlight whether there exist any diversification opportunities from investing in developed and developing countries’ Shariah-compliant and non-Shariah-compliant stock markets during global financial crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic periods. For this purpose, we employ daily data for both Shariah and non-Shariah indices from 29 October 2007 to 31 December 2021. The study uses multivariate GARCH-DCC and wavelet approaches to examine if there exist diversification opportunities in the selected markets. Evidence from this study shows that although the developing markets’ stock returns experience high volatility of a similar degree, the conventional indices of Malaysia have the highest volatility among them. This shows that Shariah indices have less exposure to risk and higher possibilities of diversification compared to their conventional counterparts. Regarding developed markets, the Japanese conventional index and the U.S. Shariah indices are more volatile compared to other indices in the market. Moreover, the results of the wavelet power spectrum show significant and higher volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic rather than the GFC. Similarly, the Chinese conventional market experienced minimum variance during the GFC and COVID-19 pandemic period. On the other hand, the results of wavelet-coherence transform indicate that the Japanese Shariah-based market offered better portfolio opportunities for U.S. traders during the GFC and the COVID-19 pandemic periods. Hence, opportunities for investment in this selected market are basically close to zero. Therefore, investors should carefully choose which stocks they can include in their investment portfolio.

Do Financial Assets Move in Tandem During High Impact Period of a Crisis: Evidence from Global Financial Crisis and COVID-19 Pandemic Periods

The present study investigates and compares the co-movement between four asset classes namely Crude, Gold, Nifty 50 Stock Index, and Rupee–Dollar Exchange Rate during the two crisis periods viz. the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 Crisis. The methodology employed for ascertaining inter-relationship includes the Johansen Co-integration technique and Toda & Yamamoto Causality model. Besides this, the entire model has been set up under the VAR Framework with Variance Decomposition and Impulse Responses giving useful insight into the relationship among the stated variables. The results of the study, however, failed to identify any co-integration among the assets during any of the two crisis periods, however, there was evidence of short-run cause–effect relation among some of the variables. The causality flow was uni-directional from Nifty 50 to both crude and exchange rate in Period I (GFC Period) while in Period II (COVID-19 Crisis Period) it was bi-directional between Gold and Nifty 50. Causality was also seen from Foreign Exchange to Gold in Period II. Further ADF Breakpoint showed all the variables were I(1) stationary and the VAR Model was also proved stable as shown by AR Characteristics Root Plots. The impulses showed that Period II or COVID-19 Crisis Period retained the innovations of other variables for a longer duration than Period I (GFC Period).