Global Energy Outlook Research Articles

Comments: A Practical Challenge to Scaling Up Low-Carbon Energy Systems: Technical Talent

_ Finding talent to advance technologies for energy transition are among the top concerns among executives in oil and gas, utilities, chemicals, mining, and agribusiness. Talent shortages, especially for technical experts, are slowing down progress. One in three companies reported difficulty finding the engineers they need in a recent Bain & Company survey of 600 executives. Digital and information technology talent is at a premium in all sectors and regions. Although about 60% of executives expect digital and AI technologies to change their businesses significantly by 2030 (only 7 years from now), they’re struggling to find talent that can help them move in that direction. Frontline labor is also in short supply. One in four are not finding enough frontline workers, cited by 39% of the companies in North America and 42% in the Middle East. The survey found that traditional energy companies are rethinking how they hire, manage, and retain talented people. For example, an unidentified large international energy company changed its approach to identifying talent and increasing diversity by taking a skills-first approach. It reevaluated job descriptions to remove requirements that weren’t critical and is considering skills developed in other industries, recruiting at more schools, and looking at a wider range of degree majors. Energy companies may have to recruit from engineering firms, technology companies, and government. The report noted that finding the talent to lead integration solutions and stakeholders is often difficult. “Rather than expertise in functional disciplines—from digital capabilities, electrical system design, and joint venture negotiations to niches like customers’ offtake and usage patterns or electrolyzer manufacturing—project leads who have significant ‘techno-commercial’ hybrid skills to integrate all of these areas, or who are great at nurturing partnerships, will be more likely to succeed.” The complexity of meeting the world’s increasing energy demands while attaining net-zero goals was identified by the executives. To close the gap between energy provided by low-carbon sources and that provided by hydrocarbons, the struggle to find technical talent to supply the world’s energy needs will continue. Bain noted, “The massive expansion of primary energy supply since the 19th century has driven an unparalleled improvement in human longevity and prosperity.” Those benefits, however, have not been equally realized in many parts of the world. Energy poverty remains a reality, especially in the global south regions. “Future population growth will be overwhelmingly concentrated in these regions, with the population of sub-Saharan Africa alone expected to almost double.” About 675 million people do not have access to electricity, and 2.3 billion people (about 30% of the world’s population) have no access to clean cooking fuels or technologies that prevent premature death from indoor air pollution. Using a scenario to emphasize the scope of the world’s increasing demand for energy, Bain wrote, “Say that India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, and other countries with low or very low energy consumption per capita today were to increase per capita consumption by 2050 to the level of, for example, Mexico, in pursuit of economic growth, a desirable goal. Global primary energy consumption would then grow by about 70 petawatt-hours, or approximately 45% of total global energy supply as of 2019.” ExxonMobil, in its global energy outlook, said that to support the world’s growing population with rising living standards, 15% more energy will need to be produced in 2050 than today. It projected that more than 50% of energy demand will still be met by oil and gas in 2050. (Senior Technology Editor Jennifer Presley takes a closer look at future supplies in her feature, “Elephant Hunt—The Search for the Oil and Gas Supplies to 2050,” in this JPT issue.) The world needs more clean energy, whether geothermal, hydrogen, renewables, nuclear, zero-emissions hydrocarbons, etc.—and it needs the technical knowledge to deliver it. For Further Reading Elephant Hunt—The Search for the Oil and Gas Supplies to 2050 (https://jpt.spe.org/elephant-hunt-the-search-for-the-oil-and-gas-supplies-to-2050) by Jennifer Presley, JPT. US Petroleum Engineering Graduation Rates Keep Falling, but Oil Execs Are Not Complaining Yet (https://jpt.spe.org/us-petroleum-engineering-graduation-rates-keep-falling-but-oil-execs-are-not-complaining-yet) by Stephen Rassenfoss, JPT.

A New World Economic order formation

Every few decades, the world order changes due to various geopolitical, economic and other circumstances. For example, as a result of globalization, the world order has undergone significant changes in the last forty years. Globalization has led to the destruction of the postwar world order, as well as to world leadership by the United States and the West. However, in recent decades, as a result of globalization, the U.S. and the West began to cede their leadership to developing countries, so there is now a change in the economic structure of relations in the world system. Today the center of economic growth is in the East, namely in Asia. There are no new superpowers in the world at the moment, but the unipolar world will cease to exist due to the weakening of the U. S. leadership, which will lead to a change in the world order. A new leader, which may replace the U. S., will not have as wide range of advantages as the USA has. Most likely, the essence of the new order will be to unite the largest countries and alliances into blocks, for example, the USA together with the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the EU, etc. The article outlines forecasts of GDP growth rates as well as the global energy outlook; analyzes the LNG market as well as the impact of the pandemic on the global oil and gas market; and lists the characteristics of U. S. geopolitics.

Study on Sustainable Development of China’s New Energy Industry under the Background of Carbon Neutrality

The latest McKenzie Global Energy Outlook predicts that by 2030, new energy prices will be lower than existing coal and natural gas prices in most regions; by 2035, new energy sources (solar energy and wind energy) will account for more than 50% of the world’s electricity generation. The global new energy industry will continue to accelerate in the future after years of its rapid development. Compared to the past, China’s new energy industry has become an important industry leader instead of industry followers a decade ago. However, under the past achievements and carbon neutral constraints, China’s new energy industry still needs to be strengthened and completed in the policies and regulations, absorption mechanism, technical research and development to promote the sustainable development of China’s new energy industry.

Renewable power surges as pandemic scrambles global energy outlook, new report finds

Renewable power surges as pandemic scrambles global energy outlook, new report finds

The US Shale Gas Revolution and Its Externality on Crude Oil Prices: A Counterfactual Analysis

The expansion of shale gas production since the mid-2000s which is commonly referred to as “shale gas revolution” has had large impacts on global energy outlook. The impact is particularly substantial when it comes to the oil market because natural gas and oil are substitutes in consumption and complements and rivals in production. This paper investigates the price externality of shale gas revolution on crude oil. Applying a structural vector autoregressive model (VAR) model, the effect of natural gas production on real oil price is identified in particular, and then based on the identification, counterfactuals of oil price without shale gas revolution are constructed. We find that after the expansion of shale gas production, the real West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price is depressed by 10.22 USD/barrel on average from 2007 to 2017, and the magnitude seems to increase with time. In addition, the period before shale gas revolution is used as a “thought experiment” for placebo study. The results support the hypothesis that real WTI oil price can be reasonably reproduced by our models, and the estimated gap for oil price during 2007–2017 can be attributed to shale gas revolution. The methodology and framework can be applied to evaluate the economic impacts of other programs or policies.

Carbon-Based Nanomaterials/Allotropes: A Glimpse of Their Synthesis, Properties and Some Applications.

Carbon in its single entity and various forms has been used in technology and human life for many centuries. Since prehistoric times, carbon-based materials such as graphite, charcoal and carbon black have been used as writing and drawing materials. In the past two and a half decades or so, conjugated carbon nanomaterials, especially carbon nanotubes, fullerenes, activated carbon and graphite have been used as energy materials due to their exclusive properties. Due to their outstanding chemical, mechanical, electrical and thermal properties, carbon nanostructures have recently found application in many diverse areas; including drug delivery, electronics, composite materials, sensors, field emission devices, energy storage and conversion, etc. Following the global energy outlook, it is forecasted that the world energy demand will double by 2050. This calls for a new and efficient means to double the energy supply in order to meet the challenges that forge ahead. Carbon nanomaterials are believed to be appropriate and promising (when used as energy materials) to cushion the threat. Consequently, the amazing properties of these materials and greatest potentials towards greener and environment friendly synthesis methods and industrial scale production of carbon nanostructured materials is undoubtedly necessary and can therefore be glimpsed as the focal point of many researchers in science and technology in the 21st century. This is based on the incredible future that lies ahead with these smart carbon-based materials. This review is determined to give a synopsis of new advances towards their synthesis, properties, and some applications as reported in the existing literatures.

The Changing Energy Landscape: The Persian Gulf and South Asia

Journal of South Asian and Middle Eastern Studies Vol. 41, No.4, Summer 2018 The Changing Energy Landscape: The Persian Gulf and South Asia Gawdat Bahgat* Since the dawn of the twenty-first century the broad Middle East has witnessed fundamental overlapping changes that are likely to have significant implications on the entire region and the rest of the world for a long time. Oil prices were mostly high up to 2014. High prices meant massive accumulation of revenues in the coffers of producing countries. This massive wealth has been transformed into political muscles, and leverage. Saudi Arabia was able to use its then, growing economy and oil revenues to establish itself as a major regional power. Two other developments contributed to Riyadh’s ascendency. First, traditional Arab powerhouses like Egypt, Syria, and Iraq have grown poorer and weaker. Their relative weakness has left a ‘power vacuum’ in the Arab world. With its large economy and strong Arab/Islamic credentials, Riyadh is well positioned to claim leadership of the Arab world. Second, for decades most Saudi monarchs were old and adopted very conservative policy both at home and abroad. Since 2015, the young Crown Prince Muhamad Bin Salman (MBS), has consolidated his power and established himself as the de-facto leader. Under his leadership the Saudi domestic and foreign policy has become much more assertive than in previous decades. Domestically, MBS has challenged the religious establishment and other members in the royal family. Regionally, he started a war in neighboring Yemen and imposed embargo on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) fellow Qatar. In 25 *Gawdat Babgat served as a professor of political science at Indiana University of Pennsylvania from 1995 to 2009 where he also was the Director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies. In 2006–07 he earned the Distinguished Faculty Award for research. Bahgat has published numerous books, chapters, and articles on various subjects including oil politics, nuclear proliferation and the Persian Gulf and Caspian Sea regions. His works have been translated in several languages. In 2010, Bahgat began teaching at the National Defense University in Washington, D.C. 26 short, since 2015 MBS has established himself as one of the most influential (and controversial) leaders in the entire Middle East. On the other hand, Iran, another major energy powerhouse, has witnessed key geo-economic and geo-strategic changes. Since the mid1980s , Tehran has been accused of seeking to acquire nuclear weapons. Iran has always categorically denied these accusations. Several rounds of negotiations failed to bring a successful diplomatic conclusion. This failure made Iran subject to severe and comprehensive US, EU, and UN economic sanctions. These sanctions dealt a heavy blow to the country’s hydrocarbon sector, but failed to slow the nuclear program. With the election of President Hasan Rouhani in 2013 the political dynamics in Tehran have changed. Iran successfully negotiated a nuclear deal (known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action JCPOA) with global powers. Accordingly, the nuclear-related sanctions have been lifted. Though Iran has never been completely isolated, since the implementation of the JCOPA (January 2016) relations with foreign powers (minus US) have grown tremendously. Tehran has enjoyed growing economic and strategic interactions with most Asian and European powers. As a result Oil and gas production has risen and the Islamic Republic economic outlook is promising. Despite significant challenges, Iran has grown more confident and more assertive both economically and politically in the last few years. This paper is divided into three sections. The first one examines the key changes in the global energy outlook, followed by a discussion of how Riyadh, Tehran, and other Middle East producers have responded to these changes. The concluding section addresses the implications on South Asia region, particularly China, India, and Pakistan. The Emerging Global Energy Landscape For several decades, oil has been the dominant source of energy around the world and Middle Eastern producers have been the main force shaping production and prices. The birth of the oil industry is generally attributed to the famous well drilled for oil in 1859 by Colonel Edwin L. Drake at Titusville, Pennsylvania.1 In addition, it is claimed that F.N. Semyenov was the first to drill a well...

A global energy outlook to 2035 with strategic considerations for Asia and Middle East energy supply and demand interdependencies

This study quantitatively projects energy supply and demand in Asia and other regions of the world through 2035, focusing on the relationship between Asia and the Middle East. An integrated group of energy economics models, including a macroeconomic model, an energy supply and demand model and a technology assessment model, are used to show that the Middle East will be able to respond to an expected substantial increase in Asian fossil fuel demand. Therefore, continuing appropriate investment in resource development in the Middle East will be indispensable to ensure stability in global energy supply and demand. The Middle East is expected to focus more on its fossil fuel exports to Asia amid a decline in exports to North America and Europe. The large energy consumption and production regions are expected to become more and more interdependent.

Setting priorities during an oil and gas industry down cycle

To anyone wondering how service companies are managing the current oil and gas industry downturn, Andrew Gould, chairman and CEO of Schlumberger, speaking at the 37th Annual Howard Weil Energy Conference in March provided a template, first outlining the global energy outlook, and then describing his company’s strategy.

Techbits: Digital Energy Conference Tackles Range of Issues

Oilfield applications of digital technology, including best practices, cutting-edge applications, and future technologies, were the themes of "Digital Energy 2006: Bytes and Barrels," a 2-day conference held in Houston in February. SPE and the SPE Gulf Coast Section worked together on the event, the sixth annual conference on applications of digital technology in the oil and gas industry. The event featured the perspectives of operators, service companies, and firms directly involved in information technology (IT) on such issues as data management, how demographics will influence IT, production-operations monitoring, collaboration, systems integration, and drilling and operations. In the conference keynote address, Steven B. Hinchman, Senior Vice President of Worldwide Production for Marathon Oil Corp., addressed "New Work Processes Required for Success." Supply and demand factors will influence how companies operate in the future, he said. "The global energy outlook really defines this changing work model," Hinchman said. Those factors include rising energy demand, especially in places such as China; growing transportation demand; the rise of natural gas as a global commodity; and a heavier and more sour barrel of oil that is becoming more difficult to produce. "The most critical question international oil and gas companies face today is access to resources," Hinchman said. By 2020, the industry will need to provide 125 million BOE in additional production capacity because of the rise in global demand and the decline rate of current producing fields, he said. Changing Relationship Another issue affecting how companies operate is the changing relationship between private international oil companies (IOCs) and national oil companies (NOCs), Hinchman said. NOCs control most of the world's reserves and are becoming increasingly active in the international arena. And today, NOCs have access to the industry's conventional technology, have more financial resources than they did in the past, and are becoming more active outside their borders. "IOCs will have to be able to differentiate themselves," he added. Oil and gas is becoming increasingly harder to produce because of rising E&P complexity and access to resources. Much of the industry's focus in the future will be on producing unconventional oil and gas, new gas technologies such as liquefied natural gas and gas to liquids, Arctic seas drilling, and ultradeepwater drilling. "All this means is that technology will play an even more important role in the next 20 years than it has in the past 20," he said. The industry's well-noted demographic challenges also will add pressure to how companies operate. Hinchman sees the need for a "new generation work model" that would involve:Integration of resource holders, suppliers, and vendors.Increased productivity.Disciplined processes and work flow.Leveraging of technology.Globalized work teams.Accelerated learning and knowledge transfer.