Global Economic Turbulence Research Articles

МІЖНАРОДНИЙ БІЗНЕС В УМОВАХ ТУРБУЛЕНТНОСТІ ГЛОБАЛЬНОЇ ЕКОНОМІКИ

The article is devoted to the study of trends in the evolutionary changes of international business in the context of global economic turbulence. It is established that the global economy is currently at the stage of turbulent fluctuations, the factors and at the same time the results of which are the strengthening of new features that are almost polar to the attributes of the economy of the past decade. The turbulence of the global economy provokes relevant trends in the development of international business: a decrease in the rate of scaling of the international companies activities; comprehensive digitization of business processes; reformatting of global chains of value formation in terms of length, fragmentation and localization; strengthening cyber security and information protection in order to minimize financial and reputational risks; the growth of e-commerce; multichannel communications with consumers; increasing the social responsibility of international companies and increasing investments in sustainable development; increasing the value of human capital and permanent modernization of the international companies HR management. Artificial intelligence and human creative capital are becoming the identifying carrier of globalization changes, which is a source of innovative efficiency of international business processes and a critical factor for sustainable development. This stimulates a steady increase of investment in the development of artificial intelligence and its implementation in international business practices. Artificial intelligence has become a factor in the development of traditional economic sectors and a driver of the creative economy as a new global phenomenon. It is established that the growth of the creative economy is characterized by the disparity between countries with different levels of development in international trade in goods and services of creative industries: a clear dominance of developed countries in the services segment and a dynamic increase in the contribution of developing countries in the segment of creative goods. On a global scale, artificial intelligence is not limited to international business and is being actively integrated into the process of developing and implementing sustainable development strategies.

Global Economic Turbulence and Recovery in the Wake of COVID-19: An Analysis of Impact, Government Responses, and Future Preparedness

Global Economic Turbulence and Recovery in the Wake of COVID-19: An Analysis of Impact, Government Responses, and Future Preparedness

Monitoring of relationships between indicators of food security of the states

The conceptual foundations of monitoring the state’s food security system under the conditions of global turbulence have been deepened. It was determined that the set of indicators of the state of food security used in national practice is imperfect. It is emphasized that the totality of indicators cannot objectively contribute to identifying potential threats to sustainable development and adopting effective management decisions. Attention is focused on the need to consider the impact of other components, including the issues of the accessibility, availability, quality, and safety of food products, as well as their resilience and adaptability. The hypothesis regarding the direct relationship between the degree of compliance of agricultural production in the country with sustainable development principles and the overall level of economic accessibility of food has been proved. The established and mathematically proven direct relationship between the indicators made it possible to emphasize the need to raise the population’s living standards. This is necessary to reduce the negative impact of the production of agricultural products on the environment, which results from the understanding by consumers of the need to satisfy not only basic needs but also to preserve natural resources for future generations. It is mathematically proven that in countries with a high level of economic accessibility of food, the compliance of agricultural production with sustainable development principles has a high level and is strongly correlated with economic factors. In countries with medium and low indicators of economic accessibility of food, such a relationship does not have statistical significance. The conclusions drawn are useful for practical use in conditions of global economic turbulence.

Volatility spillover and hedging strategies between the European carbon emissions and energy markets

Much attention has been paid to the complex risk transmission between carbon and energy markets along with the increasing global financial market integration. This research thus uses the DCC-MVGARCH model and spillover index method to investigate volatility linkages between the European carbon emissions and energy markets. The results make it clear that there are indeed volatility correlations and bidirectional spillover effects for the above two markets. In particular, the volatility correlations and the spillover index dramatically change when global economic turbulence and political events occur. Apart from the strongest volatility correlation between coal and carbon markets, the volatility spillover effect from the renewable energy market to the carbon market is gradually increasing. The role of the carbon market is also changing: the net information recipient becomes a transmitter from phase II to phase IV. Therefore, our findings provide investors with flexible portfolio strategies by making full use of dynamic volatility linkages between the two markets. This research also gives a decision-making basis for market regulators to improve the carbon market's risk management mechanism. It means that regulators should pay close attention to potential market risk sources. Further policy recommendations are put forward in the conclusion section.

Iraq Oil Industry Infrastructure Development in the Conditions of the Global Economy Turbulence

The resource orientation of the Iraqi economy implies the development of a competitive advantage of the oil industry through the industry’s infrastructure development. The authors’ assumption is that as a result of the transport and production infrastructures’ development of the extraction, processing and transportation of oil and oil products in the conditions of global economic turbulence and the availability of profitable mineral raw materials, domestic demand is restrained by both “inherited” problems and new challenges for the Iraqi oil industry. A review of changes in oil production over time has been carried out. The following problems have been identified: “inherited” problems of the oil industry’s production infrastructure, insufficient capacities and technologies and unbalanced attraction and use of investments. It has been identified that problems vary with different infrastructures. For transport infrastructure, transportation security threats, the insufficient capacity of ports and routes, low level of management and technical implementation are the main problems. New challenges in the oil industry’s infrastructural development are related to the fall in oil prices, the reorientation of supply chains, the “blockage” in world trade due to coronavirus infection and the challenge to expand the use of renewable energy resources to improve the quality of energy supply in terms of resource distribution. The aim of this study is to develop theoretical and methodological bases for the development of infrastructure in the Iraqi oil industry with reference to its background, associated with the turbulent path of the global economy. The substantiation of theoretical provisions and development of practical recommendations to facilitate development of the Iraq oil industry infrastructure are aimed at supporting the development of its infrastructure in view of economic and political instability. Thus, the theoretical and practical significance of the study lies in revealing the features and problems of the Iraq oil industry infrastructure functioning and the development of an algorithm of control for the development of its elements.

Global Supply Chain Disruption Management Post Covid 19

This study demonstrates this pandemic as absolute catastrophic, which has distracted the overall supply chain activities, with significant shortcomings for businesses, consumers, and the overall global economy. Though in a regular time, it has been extremely challenging to ensure seamless supply chain operations, and senior management had to struggle to respond to critical uncertainties to protect their employees, safeguard supply security, alleviate the financial collision, tackle reputational risks, and steer the market uncertainty. The life-threatening virus has not only caused disaster in our healthcare system but also has destroyed the global economy. During this global economic turbulence, the world’s economy, including Bangladesh’s economy uncovers itself in an unbearable state, particularly due to slumping apparel exports, declining remittances, increasing job losses, and unpredictable consumer demand. Even before the pandemic, managing seamless supply chain operations were highly challenging and stressful. For many years, multinational corporations pursued to aggressively optimize cost through economies of scale, frequently by relocating production facilities to lower-cost labor regions—opted at the expense of other critical supply chain attributes like flexibility and agility. In the meantime, enterprises and governments have occupied in business continuity and resilient supply chain management planning exercises in recent years, outdated risk management undertakings have largely involved responding to national events relating to a specific geography or sector. The current global disruptions emphasize the importance of a new paradigm to improve supply chain resilience at a significant level. Finally, the study classified ten supply chain performance measurement attributes to diagnose the performance and efficiency of an organization. This study illustrates critical challenges and the urgency of the revalidation to be needed in our strategic framework, thus the study emphasizes the importance of comprehensive performance measurement attributes. This study also demonstrates an Integrated Supply Chain Performance Measurement (ISCPM) model connected to these attributes that can supersede the currently practiced models which are not sufficient to address all the issues in the current context.

The problems of efficiency of social production in the conditions of global economic turbulence

The goal of this article consists in the analysis of current trends of the global economy, as well as forecast of their impact upon the global and domestic social production. Geopolitical and geoeconomic conditions for the functionality of global economy, established as a result of spread of coronavirus infection, impact social production of the national economies. The subject this research is the socioeconomic ties and relations that emerge in the context of transformation of global economy, resulting from shift in global economic and technological modes. The information framework for this work is comprised of the regulatory strategic documents and statistical databases. The conducted research demonstrates the impact of technological and global economic factors upon the efficiency of social production. The analysis of the global economic conjuncture reveals the two polar alternatives of the transformation of global economy: strengthening of globalizational processes, or setback in globalization and focus on regionalization of the world economy. The effect of consolidation of the countries in the context of the new world order upon the principles of sovereignty of national economies is described. The author indicates the discrepancy of objectives of number of strategic documents of the development of Russian economic sectors, namely with regards to the process manufacturing. The author outlines the negative consequences of dependence of the national economy on import of the components on the example of aviation industry.

Prospects for domestic development of the Russian soybean market in the context of global economic turbulence

Prospects for domestic development of the Russian soybean market in the context of global economic turbulence

Monetary Policy, Uncertainty, and Domestic Shock Transmission to Capital Flow in Turkey

This paper reports findings on multiple important phenomena in capital flow literature: internal and external shock transmission to foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment. Operating on Turkey as a case study, I disaggregate quarterly gross capital inflows (FDI and FPI) and examine their time-varying responses to shocks in advanced economies' monetary policy and uncertainty surrounding it, Central Bank of Turkey's monetary policy, and several key domestic macroeconomic determinants. To this end, I employ a recently developed Structural Vector Autoregression technique that uses a data-driven non-Gaussian approach and find that FPI inflows are considerably more sensitive to permanent unexpected monetary policy shocks originating both at home and abroad. Complementary results from uncertainty metrics indicate-to varying extents-that Turkey is a beneficiary of capital flow amidst heightened policy tension in the US. I also visit the push-vs.-pull debate in capital flow literature via Forecast Error Variance Decomposition and discover that Turkey falls decisively in the pull category. The Turkey-specific indicators most crucial in attracting foreign capital are the performance of the currency and CBRT's policy positioning. Lastly, using signal-processing techniques in the time-frequency domain, I report that higher FPI inflows have generally led FDI inflows in times of global economic turbulence, but that phenomenon is undergoing a reversal in the recent past.

Economic Growth and Global Economic Ties in the Epoch of Global Turbulence: Trends and Problems

In the paper an attempt is made to summarize the factors and trends characteristic of the functioning and development of the world economy and international economic relations under the conditions of slowing down the globalization pace and growing dependence of foreign trade and investment on geopolitical processes. An analysis of key macroeconomic indicators of national development and interstate relations has been employed as a basis for exploring the general context of the development of the world economy. The strategic contours are also determined of Russia's effective participation in the system of world economic relations at the stage of global economic turbulence.

Governing industrial estates on Jakarta's periurban area: From shadow government to network governance

This article investigates the way in which periurban politics have mediated foreign direct investment relocations and facilitated the spatial restructuring of the Jakarta Metropolitan Area (JMA), one of the largest and fastest‐growing megaurban regions in Asia. We conducted a series of in‐depth interviews in Cikarang, the largest, most developed industrial estate corridor in the urban periphery of JMA. We identified institutional settings, power struggles and governance mechanisms underlying the industrial estate transitions in the past three decades. We found that periurban governance in JMA has resulted in poor infrastructure connectivity and tight interactor and inter‐regional competition. As global economic turbulence and decentralization policies restrict the effectiveness of privatization strategies, network strategies are trialled to promote sustainability and inclusiveness in JMA's industrial estates and towns.

Institutional Foundations for Searching the Ways out of Modern Global Permanent Crisis

Objectives: The objective of this study is to investigate the phenomenon of modern permanent crisis to develop and implement institutional foundations for overcoming this new type of crisis. Methods: Principal methods of the investigation are represented by economical and comparative analysis, methods of statistical analysis, dialectic method, method of economic analysis, method of deduction (general-to-specific), factor analysis, social and economic analysis, investment and macroeconomic analysis and also systemic and structural approach, concept of sustainable development that make it possible to consider the new global permanent crisis in most comprehensive manner. Findings: This study develops theoretical approaches that can serve as the foundations for searching the ways out of the modern global crisis. The definition has been given to the little known theory of turbulence. Global economic turbulence becomes the source of the high risks in different sectors of the economy: Financial, banking and real sector. The rules of organizing the “chaos” have been suggested. The way out of the spiral of crisis has been suggested based on the triple helix of institutional interactions between governmental authorities, businesses and science; however, there are actual opportunities for enhancing the number of the players by means of involving the progressive international organizations, interstate structures and unions. Crisis of Russian economy represents a component element of the permanent worldwide global crisis of 2007-2008, which has started subsiding by 2010 generating optimistic expectations and ideas. Applications/Improvements: The material represented in this study can be of practical value for economic scientists, academic teaching staff, post graduate students and economic professionals of any level.

Dynamics of Ethnocentrism among Senior College Students: Implications to ASEAN Economic Community

Global economic interdependence is inevitable. This phenomenon became more pronounced as ASEAN countries head off to economic integration in 2015. The Philippines as a member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) views the reality of economic integration and interdependence as becoming even more imminent as it moves closer to become integrated into one community in 2015 (Riguer, 2012). The Philippine Association of Colleges and Universities (PACU) has been consistently raising a more specific concern during its two successive annual conferences: that of the preparedness of college graduates as they poise to be an inevitable part of this free flow of services and free flow of skilled labor -- two of the core aspects of ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) establishment (AEC Blueprint, A2, A5). How holistically prepared are our graduates in meeting this economic integration? While preparations are undergoing for the needed skills, are they also prepared psychosocially? Studies have observed subsequent psychological processes such as ethnocentrism as well as openness to ideas and consumer products as a result of global economic turbulence due to increasing interdependence (Shankarmahesh, 2006; Cameron, Kocum, Berry, 2012). This study looked into ethnocentrism and socio-cultural orientations among college students in two biggest universities in a selected city in Northern Mindanao. Causal-comparative research design was used. Using survey questionnaires as the main data gathering tool, data were collected from 267 randomly selected senior college business students. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) analysis via Amos 20 feature of SPSS 16 was used to establish the path coefficients. Results indicate a good fit was revealing significant paths on openness, cultural conservatism, and materialism to ethnocentrism. Findings of this study substantially inform institutional curricular reform decisions to augment current institutional efforts in preparing college students as future labor force for global interdependence. Keywords: Ethnocentrism, Economic integration, Global interdependence

Modeling Australia’s Construction Workforce Demand: Empirical Study with a Global Economic Perspective

Workforce planning is vital for implementing strategic human resource planning. A causal model that incorporates a global economic perspective is derived in this paper by undertaking a detailed review of the normative literature and empirically estimated by a vector error correction (VEC) model. The reliability of the developed VEC model is validated by using several tests (e.g., Lagrange multiplier test, White’s test, and Jarque-Bera test), all of which indicate that the proposed models are able to forecast construction workforce demand in the context of global economic turbulence. This paper contributes to the literature by systematically developing advanced models that not only model construction workforce demand, but also examine the impact of the global economic climate on the labor market. It provides policy makers with a practical tool and insight into future workforce demand, which serves to assist to launch an effective human resources strategy in the construction industry.

Economic Policy Shifts in Sri Lanka: The Post-Conflict Development Challenge

The end of the long civil war in Sri Lanka in 2009 generated widespread expectations of a peace dividend that would enable the country to embark on a period of sustained economic growth. Recent developments have dampened that optimism, however, rekindling fears that Sri Lanka's tale of missed opportunities may continue. After showing remarkable resilience during decades of war and conflict, the Sri Lankan economy has failed to capitalize on the window of opportunity presented by the end of the military conflict. In the aftermath of military victory, there has been a sharp reversal of trade liberalization and a marked shift back towards nationalist-populist state-centered economic policies, reflecting the pressures of resurgent nationalism, an unprecedented concentration of political power in a small ruling group, and the influence of some powerful vested interests. Unfortunately, a return to the failed past policies of inward-oriented development strategies offers no viable solutions for the problems confronting small, capital- and resource-poor countries in today's globalized world. Sri Lanka must change both its political practices and economic policies drastically and urgently to cope with the huge development challenges facing it in an environment of global economic turbulence.

Economic Views of the EU Integration Process of Macedonia

The purpose of this research is to provide a general overview of the accession process with a special reference to the economic integration and the challenges of the Republic of Macedonia in the road of joining the European Union. The Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) between the Republic of Macedonia and the EU was signed in April 2001 and entered into force in April 2004. The Council adopted the Accession Partnership for the country, including key priorities for reform, in February 2008. In October 2009, the Commission recommended to the Council to open negotiations with the country, as well as to move to the second phase of SAA Implementation. These recommendations were reiterated in 2010. The Council has not yet concluded its deliberations on the Commission's proposals. Visa liberalization for citizens travelling to the Schengen area has been in force since 19 December 2009. The decision of the European Council of December 17, 2005 granting the candidate status for EU membership is an event of historical importance for the Republic of Macedonia as deserved recognition for the efforts and results achieved in the way of achieving the strategic goal - EU membership. During the last years, the macroeconomic stability of the country has been maintained despite the continued global economic turbulence. Market entry and exit procedures have been improved and the rule of law has been strengthened. However, structural imbalances on the labor market are still very pronounced and the business environment is still suffering from slow judiciary, and a number of weak and not fully independent regulatory and supervisory institutions. The exchange rate against the euro has remained stable in nominal terms. Price competitiveness has remained largely unchanged. Trade integration with the EU is well advanced, but exports remain concentrated on a few price-sensitive products.

MODELLING HOUSING SUPPLY AND MONETARY POLICY WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC TURBULENCE

Housing supply is an essential component of the property sector. Compared with an increasingly strong housing demand, the growth rates of total housing stock in Australia have exhibited a downward trend since the end of the 1990s. Over the same period, the significant adjustments in the Australian monetary policy were being implemented under a turbulent global economic climate. This research aims to identify the relationship between housing supply and monetary policy within the context of global economic turbulence by a vector error correction model with a dummy variable. The empirical evidence indicates that the monetary policy changes and global economic turmoil can significantly affect the supply side of the housing sector in Australia. The models developed in this study assist policy makers in estimating the political impacts in the global context.

Outward FDI from Poland and its Policy Context, 2012

During the transition toward a market economy, Poland’s outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) was small and limited to trade-supporting activities in key export markets for many years. It took off and started growing rapidly only from 2005, when the Polish private sector had matured enough to start generating home-grown multinational enterprises (MNEs). Some state-owned enterprises (SOEs) also began investing abroad, sometimes with the Government’s encouragement. In contrast, Poland adopted a laissez-faire policy toward private companies, leaving the emergence and expansion of private MNEs to market forces. In addition, Poland became a source and a transit country for large intra-corporate cross-border flows of funds within both foreign and Polish MNEs, classified as FDI flows, and inflating OFDI data. During the global economic turbulence of 2008–2011, Polish MNEs continued to invest abroad at quite elevated levels. Their profitability still depends to a considerable extent on the domestic market, and the Polish economy has performed well during the crisis and the subsequent economic slowdown in Europe.

Sustainable Marketing - a new Era in the Responsible Marketing Development

Abstract The purpose of this paper is to draw to the attention of those involved in marketing - scientists, educators, researchers, marketers, and professionals dealing with the implementation of marketing processes - the responsibility which rests upon them in the face of rapid social change worldwide through increasing global economic turbulence, a continuously widening gap between rich and poor societies as well as the galloping degradation of the natural environment. The paper is a critical analysis and literature review of marketing covering recent studies on marketing issues in relation to the concept of sustainability. Faced with increasing criticisms of a one-dimensional profit driven approach, the marketing concept requires rebranding to address issues of sustainability. Intense strategic discussion is required concerning the need to change attitudes that promote and implement modern marketing, starting from changes in the consumption model through the creation of commercial proposals, which will positively shape the future of both market exchange and social life. Moreover, it is postulated that marketers present to consumers an attitude of active and responsible management, as well as openness and honesty in market communication. The article introduces discussion on sustainable marketing and its fundamental importance in the development of marketing theory in Poland; taking into account current debates voiced in Poland - often based on imprecise interpretation of the marketing process. There exists therefore, a need for a thorough analysis and standardisation of understanding marketing theory and consequently the introduction of new concepts and new practices into the marketing process.

Introduction: Georg Simmel’s ‘Sociological Metaphysics’: Money, Sociality, and Precarious Life

The articles brought together in this double-length section of the Annual Review of Theory, Culture & Society focus on two intertwined strands of the thought of Georg Simmel, both of them neglected until recent years. A first bears on what might be called Simmel’s metaphysics of the social, or what he himself once called ‘sociological metaphysics’. A second strand centres on the renewed contemporary relevance of Simmel’s ideas about money economies and their relation to precarious individual life-situations in an age of global economic turbulence. Current sensibilities in the wake of global economic crisis and the demise of some of the more euphoric sociologies of globalization of the last two decades provide a timely setting for a reappraisal of Simmel’s thinking. With the completion in 2012 of the Suhrkamp edition of Simmel’s collected works, Simmel’s themes need to be explored more deeply, including particularly his thinking about lived experience, transcendence, death, fragmentary worlds of value, and allegorical representation. This issue of the journal showcases some of the latest scholarly work and foregrounds several pivotal primary pieces unavailable in English until now.