Global Economic Shutdown Research Articles

Effect of Global Oil Price Volatility and Exchange Rate Policy on Foreign Exchange Reserves in Iraq

Purpose: This paper offers simulations and forecasts of the ideal currency reserve measure in light of future shocks to the Iraqi economy due to the downturn in the international price of oil and the global economic shutdown triggered by the Corona pandemic.
 
 Theoretical framework: The Iraqi foreign exchange reserves have entered a cycle of sustained and accelerated degradation in recent years and hit alarming amounts in 2020, affecting Iraq's financial stability compared to other foreign currency reserves. According to figures from the Iraqi Parliament's Financial Commission, the Iraqi fund in the Central Bank of Iraq decreased, following removing the government's second loan by the end of 2020, to $35 billion. The Fitch Ratings Agency, on the other hand, has found that Iraq's plan to slash public sector wages and pension costs will delay the reduction of currency reserves as part of the attempt to lower financial imbalances and relieve financial pressures. However, it will be difficult to enforce and risk exacerbating social disorders. According to Fitch, by the end of August (15% of projected GDP for 2020), cash funding from the Central Bank of Iraq grew to 28.5 billion Iraqi dinars from 14.1 billion Iraqi dinars at the end of May.
 
 Design/methodology/approach: The study uses an analytical approach to show the fluctuations in oil prices and their impact on the fluctuation of oil revenues and the currency-selling window that the Central Bank of Iraq applies to its foreign reserves.
 
 Findings: The systemic problem of worldwide petroleum price drops that provide longer-term estimates to estimate the decrease in petroleum prices on global oil markets explains the quick fall in Iraqi exchange reserve magnitude. Iraq's foreign reserves, mostly from oil exports, fulfill international standards. Iraq's exchange rate policy depends on the Central Bank's direct foreign currency sales. This approach reduces foreign money diversion from Iraq, preventing the central bank from maintaining exchange rate stability.
 
 Research, Practical & Social implications: The impact of foreign reserves on national financial stability is becoming more obvious as their function evolves from supplying fundamental transaction needs to fulfilling financial security criteria.
 
 Originality/value: The Iraqi dinar's value must be protected at all costs, hence the Central Bank of Iraq's foreign reserves are crucial. These reserves are affected by oil revenues, the main financier for it, and the window for selling the currency, which is the outlet for leakage from it.

Investment screening put to the test of the Covid-19 Pandemic: typology, legality and externality

ABSTRACT The Covid-19 Pandemic has introduced or revived a concern in the foreign direct investment (FDI) context that was less emphasized pre-Pandemic, namely public health. This article discusses the typology of Covid-19 related FDI screening, expounds on the legality of these measures in the context of both national investment law and international investment law, and identifies the potential negative externalities to foreign investors and to the host state. Newly promulgated FDI screening measures intensify governmental intervention and scrutiny in cross-border takeovers in the health sector and beyond to protect domestic companies from being taken over by predatory foreign buyers. FDI screening during Covid-19 has become more comprehensive and inclusive in its scope than what was already considered a system capable of excessive and arbitrary use pre-Pandemic. FDI screening on grounds of public health may be justified for its legality under both national and international investment law, nonetheless certain conditions need to be satisfied. The negative externality of FDI screening during Covid-19 pertains to a concern that, if applied aggressively in practice, FDI screening might potentially result in a deterrence effect on the cross-border capital flow that is much needed for market revival after a global economic shutdown.

On the current strike wave

Emerging from global economic shutdown in 2021, some of Britain’s largest employers embarked on radical restructuring of workers’ wages and conditions by exploiting the lack of protection for workers in UK legislation to impose ‘fire and rehire’ and wage cuts. As inflation and interest rates rose sharply, trade unions resisted attacks on their members’ living standards by organising the largest strike wave for over 30 years. The current strike wave has developed from defensive strikes against attacks on jobs and wages into a broad united front of organised labour across both private and public sectors. The political resistance of the organised working class poses the real question of who runs Britain.

Revisiting the levels of Aerosol Optical Depth in south-southeast Asia, Europe and USA amid the COVID-19 pandemic using satellite observations

The countries around the world are dealing with air quality issues for decades due to their mode of production and energy usages. The outbreak of COVID-19 as a pandemic and consequent global economic shutdown, for the first time, provided a base for the real-time experiment of the effect of reduced emissions across the globe in abetting the air pollution issue. The present study dealt with the changes in Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), a marker of air pollution, because of global economic shutdown due to the coronavirus pandemic. The study considered the countries in south and south-east Asia (SSEA), Europe and the USA for their extended period of lockdown due to coronavirus pandemic. Daily Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from Moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) and tropospheric column density of NO2 and SO2 from Ozone monitoring instrument (OMI) sensors, including meteorological data such as wind speed (WS) and relative humidity (RH) were analyzed during the pre-lockdown (2017–2019) and lockdown periods (2020). The average AOD, NO2 and SO2 during the lockdown period were statistically compared with their pre-lockdown average using Wilcoxon-signed-paired-rank test. The accuracy of the MODIS-derived AOD, including the changing pattern of AOD due to lockdown was estimated using AERONET data. The weekly anomaly of AOD, NO2 and SO2 was used for analyzing the space-time variation of aerosol load as restrictions were imposed by the concerned countries at the different points of time. Additionally, a random forest-based regression (RF) model was used to examine the effects of meteorological and emission parameters on the spatial variation of AOD. A significant reduction of AOD (−20%) was obtained for majority of the areas in SSEA, Europe and USA during the lockdown period. Yet, the clusters of increased AOD (30–60%) was obtained in the south-east part of SSEA, the western part of Europe and US regions. NO2 reductions were measured up to 20–40%, while SO2 emission increased up to 30% for a majority of areas in these regions. A notable space-time variation was observed in weekly anomaly. We found the evidence of the formation of new particles for causing high AOD under high RH and low WS, aided by the downward vertical wind flow. The RF model showed a distinguishable relative importance of emission and meteorological factors among these regions to account for the spatial variability of AOD. Our findings suggest that the continued lockdown might provide a temporary solution to air pollution; however, to combat persistent air quality issues, it needs switching over to the cleaner mode of production and energy. The findings of this study, thus, advocated for alternative energy policy at the global scale.