Global Economic Growth Rate Research Articles

Characteristics and Application of Corporate Fund-raising Forms: Based on SPAC and IPO

After a record year in 2021, there is a sharp slowdown in transactions in the global IPO market in the first and second quarters of 2022. The global IPO market has fallen into low inflation, the global economic growth rate has declined, and the Russian Ukrainian war has led to a sharp sell-off in the IPO market. This article is written against such background, and mainly analyzes two ways of listing, SPAC, and IPO. Based on the analysis and comparison of the process, advantages and disadvantages of SPAC and IPO, this paper summarizes the choices and reasons for investors to choose different listing methods for different companies. On this basis, the future development trend of traditional IPO and SPAC IPO is predicted. The analysis of the two listing methods in this paper is based on the current market performance, and there may be unforeseen changes in the future.

Regional Import and Export Influencing Factors in Jiangsu Province, China Based on RBF Neural Network Analysis

With economic globalization, import and export trade has become a key factor affecting economic growth, and the sample data of Jiangsu province, as an important part of China's import and export trade, is a typical representative. This paper selects the annual data of Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2021, determines the main influencing factors by rooting in past research theories, adopts the structure, characteristics and training algorithm of RBF (radial basis function) neural network, and applies the neural network to establish a multi-factor nonlinear time series forecasting model based on the mapping relationship between Jiangsu Province's import and export and its influencing factors. The conclusions are as follows: This paper builds a neural network around the data related to the import and export of foreign trade affecting Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2021, and establishes an indicator system for the trend of foreign trade and the influencing factors of Jiangsu Province. The analysis finds that the highest accuracy is achieved when the neuron is 9. The degree of trade barriers, regional social financing scale, global economic growth rate and financial development efficiency are the main factors influencing the total amount of foreign trade import and export of Jiangsu province. Under the background of global trade being hindered by the epidemic and stagnant, the current situation of foreign trade development in Jiangsu Province should focus on breaking through from the above factors, considering domestic and international economic development, accelerating its financing scale and financial industry development, and promoting the steady development of foreign trade.

Economic Growth, CO2 Emissions Quota and Optimal Allocation under Uncertainty

This study attempts to link greenhouse gas emissions and economic development, and under the premise of considering economic development, proposes an optimal quota of greenhouse gas emissions. Based on the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, the logarithmic value of greenhouse gas emissions is an inverted U-shaped function of the logarithmic value of GDP per capita. The empirical results showed that most countries in the world support the Kuznets curve hypothesis. Moreover, using data collected from Our World in Data, the optimal allocation of a greenhouse gas emissions quota can be found by minimizing the uncertainty risk subject to a prespecified global economic growth rate. For government policymakers, they may apply the framework in this study to determine an optimal allocation of greenhouse gas emissions for each sector that will ensure the intended level of domestic economic growth.

Probabilistic projections of baseline twenty-first century CO2 emissions using a simple calibrated integrated assessment model

Probabilistic projections of baseline (with no additional mitigation policies) future carbon emissions are important for sound climate risk assessments. Deep uncertainty surrounds many drivers of projected emissions. Here, we use a simple integrated assessment model, calibrated to century-scale data and expert assessments of baseline emissions, global economic growth, and population growth, to make probabilistic projections of carbon emissions through 2100. Under a variety of assumptions about fossil fuel resource levels and decarbonization rates, our projections largely agree with several emissions projections under current policy conditions. Our global sensitivity analysis identifies several key economic drivers of uncertainty in future emissions and shows important higher-level interactions between economic and technological parameters, while population uncertainties are less important. Our analysis also projects relatively low global economic growth rates over the remainder of the century. This illustrates the importance of additional research into economic growth dynamics for climate risk assessment, especially if pledged and future climate mitigation policies are weakened or have delayed implementations. These results showcase the power of using a simple, transparent, and calibrated model. While the simple model structure has several advantages, it also creates caveats for our results which are related to important areas for further research.

Сучасні глобальні тенденції економіки

Today, the world is trying to maintain a global tendency in the development of a sustainable economy, responding to various threats, risks and challenges: the COVID-19 pandemic; political instability; wars; the formation of multipolarity of the world; spread of processes of technologization and digitalization, energy imbalances; demographic and environmental problems, etc. The purpose of the article is to study global tendencies in the development of the world economy, the influence of destabilizing factors, the selection of megatrends, which are caused by the formation of a post-industrial mode of production. It is specified that economic megatrends are formed as result of technological revolutions and changes in the mode of production. According to the content of these transformations, the current stage of society’s life represents the beginning of the development of post-industrial relations. This type of technical, economic and socioeconomic relations determines the long-term vectors of economic development, which are based on basic innovations – digital technologies, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, etc. It is stated that big trends, or megatrends, are manifestations of long-term vector changes. However, in the current periods of their objectification, megatrends are influenced by many factors – there is an adjustment of the current dynamics within the framework of the general determining trend of economic development. It is emphasized that the most significant in our time is the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has led to the weakening of international economic ties and the rupture of supply chains. This was followed almost immediately by the russian military invasion of Ukraine, the consequences of which affect the social (including economic) life not only of European countries, but also of the world in general. The cumulative and repeatedly enhanced due to their simultaneity, the negative impact of these factors significantly adjusts the parameters of global economic trends – temporal, structural and others – at present. It is found that in 2022 there is a decrease in the global economic growth rate to 2.9% compared to the growth rate in 2021 by 5.7%, and, according to the forecast, during 2023-2024 there will be no compensation. In such a situation, inflation will remain high, which could lead to a sharp global recession along with financial crises in some market-based and emerging economies. It is determined that the dynamics of GDP of the pre-pandemic and pre-war period highlighted the outstripping growth rate of the economy in developing countries, compared with the dynamics of GDP of developed countries. The carried out studies have shown that a larger share of world GDP is created in developed countries, and by 2032 the contribution by groups of countries (developed / developing) will not become equal, although it will gravitate towards this parity. The prognosticated paces of global economic growth by region in 2023–2024 are examined. The significant negative impact on the world economy of russia’s invasion of Ukraine in general and in certain regions in particular is emphasized. It is concluded that the harshest consequences of the war would be for Europe and Central Asia. A slowdown in growth this year is forecast in all regions other than the Middle East and North Africa – that is, in those regions where countries can benefit from energy prices. For all regions with a market and a developing economy, the following risks occur: increased geopolitical tensions; rising inflation and food shortages; financial stress and increasing the cost of loans; new outbreaks of COVID-19, etc. It is noted that the need to reduce the negative impact of these risks led to the search by society for such directions of development that would become an impetus for economic growth and restore market activity. In the period of formation of the post-industrial technological mode of production, nano-, bio-, info-, cognitive technologies became decisive. The carried out research provides grounds to assert that the six economies named by the UN (exabyte, welfare, carbon-neutral, closed cycle, biogrowth, impressions) are megatrends, since such transformations are the result of the formation of a post-industrial mode of production – a special type of relations: technical and economic (productive forces) and socioeconomic (production relations).

RETRACTED ARTICLE: Forecasting algorithm of tourism service trade based on PSO-optimized hybrid RVM model

As a comprehensive form of trade, tourism service trade has had a profound impact on the economies of various countries. This research mainly discusses the tourism service trade forecasting algorithm based on the PSO-optimized hybrid RVM model. This study extracts 8 indicators including gross national product, total fixed asset investment, total import and export, China's import and export tariff rate, the exchange rate of renminbi to the US dollar, and the global economic growth rate. The same as the impact indicators of tourism service trade, but there is a certain degree of redundancy and correlation in these indicators. In order to measure the correlation between the evaluation indicators, the autocorrelation evaluation function in MATLAB is used, and the principal component analysis method is used to extract the principal components that can represent the indicators in a larger percentage. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the RVM model, based on the adaptive construction model structure and initial model weights, the PSO algorithm is used to optimize the RVM model weights. The optimization process takes the minimum error of the RVM model as the algorithm search target, and each represents the RVM model. The algorithm finds the value and threshold of the optimal RVM model through the particle swarm tracking search algorithm and then uses the original RVM model and the optimized RVM prediction respectively total amount of tourism service trade in City A, and compares the prediction errors of the single RVM method and the PSO-optimized RVM method, and analyzes the degree of model prediction error reduction after the PSO model optimizes the RVM model. According to the forecast result, the relative average error of 2020 is 5.7%, and the forecast result is relatively accurate. This research is helpful to provide scientific reference for my country's tourism service trade.

Won Appreciation: Its Disproportionate Effects on Smes and Policy Measures

In 2021, as the spread of COVID-19 subsides gradually, the global economic growth rate is expected to rebound due to the base effect and the current, aggressive economic stimulus measures. In last November, the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) predicted that the global economy in 2021 will record a growth rate of 5.0%, which is an improvement from -5.1% in 2020. With the election of candidate Joe Biden as the President of the United States, this global economic recovery is contrib-uting to the strengthening of the Korean won. It is fortunate that if the won continues to soar, Korea can be relatively free from pressure on the exchange rate appreciation. However, since the strong won may have a negative impact on export competitiveness, we need to pay attention to the effects of the exchange rate and possible policy responses. Against this backdrop, here I discuss the effect of exchange rates on Korean export companies and suggest relevant policy directions.

External and Internal Factors of Cross-Border Capital Flows in Russia

The literature on the assessment of factors affecting cross-border capital flows is usually characterised by distinguishing of external and internal factors. The former as a rule include international indices of the global economic growth rate, interest rates and other indicators of profitability (for certain types of financial assets). The latter include domestic indices of the growth rate of the national economy, interest rates and the profitability of financial instruments, sovereign credit ratings. Since the beginning of the 21st century, cross-border capital flows in Russia have followed the same trends as capital flows in other emerging markets. A distinguishing feature of Russia was the negative impact of sanctions on the level of its financial openness. We estimated regressions, designed to evaluate the factors affecting the individual components of cross-border capital flows in Russia. Regressions for the three types of flows (liabilities of direct investment and portfolio investment liabilities, and assets) demonstrate good results. Among external factors, the dynamics of oil prices turned out to be significant, as well as the global stock index (for portfolio investment assets). Among internal factors, an increase in aggregate demand helps to attract foreign direct investment, and an increase in the yield of Russian financial assets (stocks and bonds) — to attract portfolio investments. The difference in interest rates is the determinant of all analysed capital flows. Our estimations confirmed the significance of the “round-tripping” movement of foreign direct investment in Russia.

Duration of sudden stop spells: A hazard model approach

AbstractUsing a hazard‐based duration model, we analyze the determinants of the duration of a period of sudden stop, which is defined as a drop in capital inflow by two standard deviations, for at least two consecutive quarters. The hazard model estimates the conditional probability that the country exits the sudden stop today given that it experienced one until the end of last period. We find that a higher ratio of foreign exchange reserves to short‐term external debt shortens the duration of sudden stops. We also find that a higher global economic growth rate tends to shorten sudden stop spells. Our results are robust to various alternative specifications.

Preconditions for the Tax Environment of a Alterglobal Development

In this article, we analyzed economic surroundings as a precondition for the development of the tax environment in the context of alterglobal development. We admitted that economic globalization is harmful to the environment because it depends on its own viability: the constant increase in commodity consumption, the increased use of resources and the growing disposition to pollute waste in the ocean, on the ground, and in the air. So, we proposed considering and analyzing alterglobalization as a process oriented towards self‑determination for peoples, communities and nations. In this context, we developed the idea about Environmental Fiscal Reform, including increasing green taxation and the phase‑out of environmentally harmful subsidies as well as financial incentives, VAT reductions and tax breaks for green initiatives – providing the perfect conditions for the transition to a circular economy. As the new economy is developing at a rapid pace today – 10% per year, more than three times the global economic growth rate – it has a significant impact on competitiveness.

Prospects to interface the silk road economic belt and the Eurasian Economic Union projects

The task is posed to study the One Belt One Road initiative, proposed by China in 2013 and based on original Chinese documents; materials of various conferences held in China and abroad; and works by Chinese, Russian, and Western scholars. This project is primarily economic and is targeted at accelerating China’s socioeconomic development under new challenges in the global arena. These challenges include the reduction of export possibilities in the traditional markets of the United States, the European Union, and East Asia as a result of decreased global economic growth rates and the attempt of the United States to weaken China’s political and economic positions by creating two new structures—the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and the Trans-Pacific Partnership. A paper on this topic was presented by A.V. Ostrovskii at a session of the RAS Presidium in April 2017.

Social and economic impacts of climate.

For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions-such as temperature, rainfall, and violent storms-influence the nature of societies and the performance of economies. A multidisciplinary renaissance of quantitative empirical research is illuminating important linkages in the coupled climate-human system. We highlight key methodological innovations and results describing effects of climate on health, economics, conflict, migration, and demographics. Because of persistent "adaptation gaps," current climate conditions continue to play a substantial role in shaping modern society, and future climate changes will likely have additional impact. For example, we compute that temperature depresses current U.S. maize yields by ~48%, warming since 1980 elevated conflict risk in Africa by ~11%, and future warming may slow global economic growth rates by ~0.28 percentage points per year. In general, we estimate that the economic and social burden of current climates tends to be comparable in magnitude to the additional projected impact caused by future anthropogenic climate changes. Overall, findings from this literature point to climate as an important influence on the historical evolution of the global economy, they should inform how we respond to modern climatic conditions, and they can guide how we predict the consequences of future climate changes.

Rapid Expansion of the World Economy

2004 will go down in history as a period of rapid expansion, even though the global economic growth rate slowed markedly during the course of the year. However, it did not come to a complete standstill despite the renewed increase in the price of oil and other energy commodities. Is there a threat of stronger price rises that would “force” the central banks to renounce their expansive course of monetary policy? Will the slowdown in the rate of global output expansion continue? If so, will this be only temporary, or can perhaps a return to a markedly faster rate of expansion be expected?

Multiple growth and urbanization patterns in an endogenous growth model with spatial agglomeration

This paper presents a model which integrates an economic geography model with an endogenous growth model and examines how the specialization pattern and global economic growth rate are determined in an economy with decreasing transaction costs. If transaction costs decrease slowly and the agglomeration process has not yet been completed, economic activities tend to agglomerate in the region with large land mass and a high growth rate will be attained. On the other hand, a sharp decrease in transaction costs can lead to agglomeration in a region with a paucity of land. In this case, the further decrease in transaction costs decreases the global economic growth rate.

Multiple growth and urbanization patterns in an endogenous growth model with spatial agglomeration

This paper presents a model which integrates an economic geography model with an endogenous growth model and examines how the specialization pattern and global economic growth rate are determined in an economy with decreasing transaction costs. If transaction costs decrease slowly and the agglomeration process has not yet been completed, economic activities tend to agglomerate in the region with large land mass and a high growth rate will be attained. On the other hand, a sharp decrease in transaction costs can lead to agglomeration in a region with a paucity of land. In this case, the further decrease in transaction costs decreases the global economic growth rate.

News Briefs

World Economy Forecast for 1982. A slight improvement in the world economy is forecast by Bank of America's World Economic Outlook 1982. Western Europe will recover slowly from recession in the second half of the year, according to the bank's economists, while economies of countries in Eastern Europe and the Middle East will be sluggish. A global economic growth rate of 2.4 per cent, compared with 2.0 per cent in 1981, is forecast. With key governments maintaining anti‐inflation, moderate growth policies, economic expansion will be relatively slow at first; however, there will be improvement in real growth after mid‐year as inflation eases. Global inflation will decline from approximately 14 per cent projected for 1981 to about 12 per cent in 1982. World trade is expected to increase by 2.5 per cent.