Global Burden Of Disease Data Research Articles

Burden of malignant mesothelioma in China during 1990-2019 and the projections through 2029

ObjectiveTo provide the most up-to-date data on the burden of malignant mesothelioma (MM) and the projections through 2029 in China. MethodsData on patients diagnosed with MM from China during 1990-2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database, including annual cases and deaths data and age-standardized rates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with MM among different age groups. Temporal trends during 1990-2019 were analyzed by the Joinpoint regression models using 95% confidence interval (CI), while the projections through 2029 were calculated by Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Data on the production and consumption of asbestos in China were obtained from the United States Geological Survey on Mineral Commodity Summaries during 1996-2023. ResultsWe observed a significant elevation in incident new cases and deaths over last 3 decades, increasing from 1193 in 1990 to 2815 in 2019 for incident cases and from 1134 in 1990 to 2773 in 2019 for death cases. We found roughly 6% increase in the proportion of incident cases for those aged > 70 years (30% in 2019 versus 24% in 1990), while for the proportion of deaths similar elevation for those aged > 70 years was also found. Additionally, men had significantly higher DALYs due to MM across age groups compared to women. Asbestos consumption in China dramatically dropped since 2012 and reached bottom in 2017 with 230 kilotons. By 2029, the projected age-standardized rate for incidence and mortality is expected to reach 1.2 per million for both. ConclusionWe found, for the first time using GBD data on the Chinese population, that the burden of MM has been significantly increasing in China over the last three decades and will continue to increase in the upcoming decade, suggesting an urgent need for a complete ban on chrysotile asbestos in China.

Infective Endocarditis in North Africa and the Middle East, 1990‒2019: Updates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Infective endocarditis (IE), a severe and economically impactful condition, lacks substantial epidemiological data in the North Africa and Middle East (NAME) region. This study focused on analyzing the trends and burden of IE in NAME from 1990 to 2019, taking into account factors like age, gender, and socio-demographic index (SDI). The Global Burden of Disease data from 1990 to 2019 was retrieved from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) website. Between 1990 and 2019, the age-standardized rates (ASR) for IE incidence increased by 59%, and prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) rose by 12% and 9%, respectively, while the ASRs for deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and years of life lost (YLLs) saw reductions of 22%, 34%, and 34% in the NAME region. Death rates among children under five declined by 72%. Gender and the SDI did not significantly influence these changes. Saudi Arabia witnessed the most significant increase in ASR of IE incidence since 1990, while Turkey had the highest rates in 2019. The year 2019 also saw the highest death rate among those aged 70 and over, with over 91000 DALYs from IE. DALYs decreased by 71.5% for children under five from 1990 to 2019 but remained stable for individuals in their seventies. Jordan showed the most notable decrease in ASRs for deaths, DALYs, and YLLs among children under five. This study highlights the changing epidemiology of IE in the NAME region, recommending the establishment of multidisciplinary IE registries, antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines for healthcare-associated IE, and strategies to control antimicrobial resistance as key mitigation measures.

Rising testicular cancer incidence in Spain despite declining mortality: an age-period-cohort analysis

BackgroundTesticular cancer, primarily affecting young men, has seen an alarming rise globally. This study delves into incidence and mortality trends in Spain from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database and the Age-Period-Cohort (A-P-C) model. MethodsWe analyzed GBD data on testicular cancer cases and deaths in Spain, calculating age-standardized rates (ASIR and ASMR) and employing Joinpoint regression to identify significant shifts. The A-P-C model further dissected the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on these trends. ResultsA striking doubling in testicular cancer incidence was observed, from 3.09 to 5.40 per 100,000 men (1.9% annual increase), while mortality rates remained stable and even decreased in younger age groups (0.34 to 0.26 per 100,000, 0.8% annual decrease). Joinpoint analysis revealed four distinct periods of increasing incidence, with a recent slowdown. The A-P-C model highlighted a consistent rise in incidence risk with each successive generation born after 1935, contrasting with a progressive decline in mortality risk across cohorts, particularly marked for those born since the 1960s. ConclusionWhile mortality rates are encouraging, Spain reflects the global trend of escalating testicular cancer incidence. The A-P-C analysis suggests a generational influence, but the underlying causes remain elusive. Further research is crucial to understand these trends and implement effective prevention strategies to combat this growing health concern.

The Burden of Occupational Noise-Induced Hearing Loss From 1990 to 2019: An Analysis of Global Burden of Disease Data.

The relationship between long-term exposure to occupational noise and hearing loss has been extensively documented. We aimed to assess spatial and temporal changes in the burden of occupational noise-induced hearing loss (ONIHL) in 204 countries and territories with varying socio-demographic indexes (SDI) from 1990 to 2019. Temporal and spatial trends in age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rates (ASDR) for ONIHL were estimated by sex, age, SDI level, country, and geographic region from 1990 to 2019. We used the Joinpoint model to calculate annual average percentage changes to assess such trends and projected trends in ASDR for ONIHL globally and across different income regions from 2020 to 2044 using an age-period-cohort model. We fitted the relationship between ASDR and SDI, ASDR and healthcare access and quality index, respectively. Overall, the global burden of ONIHL has decreased since 1990, especially in middle and lower SDI regions. In 2019, the global ASDR for ONIHL was 84.23 (95% confidence interval: 57.46 to 120.52) per 100,000 population. From 1990 to 2019, the global ASDR for ONIHL decreased by 1.72% (annual average percentage change = -0.05, 95% confidence interval: -0.07 to -0.03). Our projections showed a decreasing trend in the global ONIHL burden until 2044. ASDR and SDI (R = -0.8, p < 0.05), ASDR and healthcare access and quality index (R = -0.75, p < 0.05) showed significant negative correlations. The global ONIHL burden has decreased over the past three decades, especially in regions with middle and lower SDI levels. However, the global ONIHL burden still remained severe in 2019, notably among males, the middle-aged and elderly, and regions with lower SDI levels.

Aumento de la incidencia del cáncer testicular en España a pesar del descenso de la mortalidad: un análisis edad-periodo-cohorte

BackgroundTesticular cancer, primarily affecting young men, has seen an alarming rise globally. This study delves into incidence and mortality trends in Spain from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database and the Age-Period-Cohort (A-P-C) model. MethodsWe analyzed GBD data on testicular cancer cases and deaths in Spain, calculating age-standardized rates (ASIR and ASMR) and employing Joinpoint regression to identify significant shifts. The A-P-C model further dissected the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on these trends. ResultsA striking doubling in testicular cancer incidence was observed, from 3.09 to 5.40 per 100,000 men (1.9% annual increase), while mortality rates remained stable and even decreased in younger age groups (0.34 to 0.26 per 100,000, 0.8% annual decrease). Joinpoint analysis revealed four distinct periods of increasing incidence, with a recent slowdown. The A-P-C model highlighted a consistent rise in incidence risk with each successive generation born after 1935, contrasting with a progressive decline in mortality risk across cohorts, particularly marked for those born since the 1960s. ConclusionWhile mortality rates are encouraging, Spain reflects the global trend of escalating testicular cancer incidence. The A-P-C analysis suggests a generational influence, but the underlying causes remain elusive. Further research is crucial to understand these trends and implement effective prevention strategies to combat this growing health concern.

Burden and Epidemiology of Mental Disorders in the Middle East and North Africa from 1990 to 2019: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study

Previous studies have mainly focused on individual mental disorders, and there is no study addressing the total burden of mental disorders in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). To evaluate the burden of mental disorders in the MENA region from 1990 to 2019. A cross-sectional study. We utilized global burden of disease data to examine the burden of 12 mental disorders from 1990 to 2019 across age groups, genders, and the 21 MENA countries. We collected data on prevalence, incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), including both crude and age-standardized rates per 100,000 people. The DALY rate of mental disorders in MENA countries increased by 13.88% from 1,747.92 per 100,000 people in 1990 to 1990.5 per 100,000 people in 2019. The highest percentage increases in the DALY rates of mental disorders were observed for bulimia nervosa (35.69%), other mental health disorders (34.58%), and schizophrenia (33.02%) from 1990 to 2019. However, the DALY rates for idiopathic developmental intellectual disability (-26.48%), conduct disorder (-23.91%), attentiondeficit/ hyperactivity disorder (-16.46%), and autism spectrum disorders (-4.12%) decreased in the MENA region from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, the highest DALY rates for idiopathic developmental intellectual disability, anxiety disorders, and major depressive disorder were observed in age groups ≤ 4 years, 5-19 years, and ≥ 20 years, respectively. The age-standardized DALY rate of mental disorders was the highest in Palestine (2,396.9 per 100,000), Iran (2,295.8 per 100,000), and Lebanon (2,126.0 per 100,000) compared with other MENA countries in 2019. There has been a slight increase in the burden of mental disorders in the MENA region between 1990 and 2019. National policies should prioritize evidence-based preventive measures and ensure accessible treatment options for mental health disorders in the population, especially in the MENA region.

The epidemiology of pregnancy loss: global burden, variable risk factors, and predictions.

Is the incidence of pregnancy loss correlated with various geographic, socio-demographic, and age stratifications at the societal and national levels, and what are the risk factors associated with pregnancy loss at the individual level? The epidemiological trends and disease burden of pregnancy loss were correlated with various geographic, socio-demographic, and age stratifications, and we identified that poor health condition, smoking, sedentary behaviour, lower educational level, and lower maternal birth weight may significantly increase the risk of pregnancy loss. Several studies have used national, regional, or single-centre data to describe trends in the burden of pregnancy loss, and previous observational studies have identified some variable factors possibly associated with pregnancy loss. However, a comprehensive analysis of global trends and predictions of pregnancy loss are lacking, and the conclusions have been inconsistent. We have utilized the data from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 to provide an overview of the trends in pregnancy loss in 204 countries and regions worldwide from 1990 to 2019, and have made a forecast for the next 10 years. Moreover, we applied a variety of statistical genetics methods to analyse 34239 pregnancy loss and 89340 non-pregnancy loss cases from the FinnGen consortium to comprehensively assess the bidirectional causality of variable factors with pregnancy loss from an individual perspective. We analysed trends in the incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and maternal mortality of pregnancy loss at global, regional, national, socio-demographic index (SDI), and age levels. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict trends by 2030. Finally, we used two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) and multivariate MR (MVMR) analyses to explore the relationship between the pregnancy loss and variables closely related to physical condition, physical activity, lifestyle, sleep conditions, basic conditions. In 2019, there were approximately 42.39 million cases of pregnancy loss worldwide. Globally, the incidence, DALYs, and mortality of pregnancy loss showed a decreasing trend between 1990 and 2019, although the number was increasing in some countries. The age-standardized incidence, DALYs, and mortality rate were negatively correlated with SDI level and show a further decline by 2030. Based on MR analyses, we confirmed that genetically predicted overall health rating (inverse-variance weighted (IVW) odds ratio (OR), 1.68; 95% CI, 1.34-2.13; P = 5.10 × 10-6), smoking initiation (IVW OR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.16-1.38; P = 1.90 × 10-9), sedentary behaviour (IVW OR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.20-2.01; P = 2.76 × 10-5), educational level (IVW OR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.55-0.73; P = 6.56 × 10-10), and maternal birth weight (IVW OR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.58-0.85; P = 2.98 × 10-4) were significantly related to the risk of pregnancy loss, whereas body mass index (IVW OR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.03-1.17; P = 5.31 × 10-3), alcohol consumption (IVW OR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.03-2.95; P = 0.04), insomnia (IVW OR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.14-2.42; P = 7.00 × 10-3), and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (IVW OR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.37-0.95; P = 2.85 × 10-2) were suggestively associated with the risk of pregnancy loss. These results were supported by sensitivity and directional analyses. Despite efforts to standardize GBD data from all over the world, uncertainties in data quality control regarding ascertainment of pregnancy loss, medical care accessibility, cultural differences, and socioeconomic status still exist. Furthermore, the population in the MRstudy was limited to Europeans, which means that the results may not be extrapolated to people of other origins. Our study provides for the first time an overview of the epidemiological trends and disease burden of pregnancy loss related with SDI, region, country, and age, and predicts changes in future trends up to 2030. In addition, findings support that genetic susceptibility, smoking, health condition, and sedentary behaviour may be powerful indicators of an increased risk of pregnancy loss. These results would be beneficial for policy makers of different countries and regions to improve prevention implementation. This work was supported by grants 2021JH2/10300093, from the Science and Technology Projects of Liaoning Province, China. All authors declare no conflicts of interest. N/A.

Smoking-Related Disease Impact in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: A Comprehensive Assessment Using Global Burden of Disease Data.

Smoking remains a significant risk factor for numerous health issues, including lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, ischemic heart disease, stroke, and respiratory infections. This study investigates the burden of tobacco-related diseases in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Utilizing the GBD data, we examined the risk of smoking and second-hand smoke exposure and their related causes of death and disability in the 22 MENA countries. Smoking prevalence and disease burden data were analyzed with estimates reported as age-standardized rates. Tobacco abuse accounted for 14.5% of all deaths and 23.2% of deaths tied to known risk factors, with an age-standardized death rate of 110.8 per 100,000. Cardiovascular diseases were the primary cause of smoking-related deaths and DALYs, representing 53.4% of all deaths and 50.3% of all DALYs. This was followed by neoplasms (24.6% of all deaths and 20.3% of all DALYs), chronic respiratory diseases(12.4% of all deaths and 11.9% of all DALYs), and respiratory infections and tuberculosis(4% of all deaths and 3.4% of all DALYs). Second-hand smoking caused 20.5% of tobacco-related deaths and 21.5% of tobacco-related DALYs, disproportionately affecting younger individuals. An increasing disease burden was observed in Lebanon, Turkey, Syria, Tunisia, UAE, and Libya, and declining rates were most evident in Oman and Qatar. Our study emphasizes the impact of smoking on cardiovascular disease, the primary cause of smoking-related mortality and morbidity in the MENA region. Our findings highlight the urgent need for effective tobacco control policies and interventions.

Increasing Burden of Lower-Extremity Fractures in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): A 30-Year Epidemiological Analysis.

Lower-extremity fractures (LEFs) account for >30% of all skeletal injuries, contributing to the global health and economic burden. Fracture epidemiology in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has been studied little. Health factors and disease epidemiology differ greatly among populations in MENA despite cultural, political, and economic similarities among the region's countries. This study examined the epidemiology of LEFs and the need for rehabilitation in MENA from 1990 to 2019. We examined the epidemiology of fractures of the pelvis, hip, femur, patella, tibia, fibula, ankle, and foot bones using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data. Fracture incidence, counts, and rates were measured for males and females across age groups in the 21 MENA countries as identified by the GBD data set. Associations between years of healthy life lost due to disability (YLD) resulting from fracture and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) were analyzed. In contrast to the global trend, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of LEFs in the MENA region increased by 4.57% from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, the highest ASIR among fractures was attributed to fractures of the patella, fibula, tibia, or ankle (434.36 per 100,000), most frequently occurring among those 20 to 24 years of age. In 2019, the highest ASIR of all fractures was noted in Saudi Arabia (2,010.56 per 100,000) and the lowest, in Sudan (523.29 per 100,000). The greatest increases from 1990 to 2019 in the ASIR of LEFs were noted in Yemen (132.39%), Syria (107.27%), and Afghanistan (94.47%), while the largest decreases were found in Kuwait (-62.72%), Sudan (-48.72%), and Iran (-45.37%). In 2019, the YLD rate of LEFs had increased to 277.65 per 100,000, up from 235.55 per 100,000 in 1990. Between 1990 and 2019, LEFs increased in the MENA region. Violence, war, and road traffic accidents increased, leading to a high rate of fractures, especially among youth. Low bone-mineral density related to vitamin D deficiency has also been reported as a risk factor for fracture in the region. Regional health authorities should be informed of fracture patterns by this study. Prognostic Level III . See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Musculoskeletal health: an ecological study assessing disease burden and research funding

Exacerbated by an aging population, musculoskeletal diseases are a chronic and growing problem in the United States that impose significant health and economic burdens. The objective of this study was to analyze the correlation between the burden of diseases and the federal funds assigned to health-related research through the National Institutes of Health (NIH). An ecological study design was used to examine the relationship between NIH research funding and disease burden for 60 disease categories. We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 to measure disease burden and the NIH Research, Condition, and Disease Categories (RCDC) data to identify 60 disease categories aligned with available GBD data. NIH funding data was obtained from the RCDC system and the NIH Office of Budget. Using linear regression models, we observed that musculoskeletal diseases were among the most underfunded (i.e., negative residuals from the model) with respect to disease burden. Musculoskeletal diseases were underfunded, with neck pain being the most underfunded at only 0.83% of expected funding. Low back pain, osteoarthritis, and rheumatoid arthritis were also underfunded at 13.88%, 35.08%, and 66.26%, respectively. Musculoskeletal diseases were the leading cause of years lived with disability and the third leading cause in terms of prevalence and disability-adjusted life years. Despite the increasing burden of these diseases, the allocation of NIH funding to the National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases (NIAMS) has remained low compared to other institutes. Despite the increasing health burden and economic cost of $980 billion annually, the allocation of NIH funding to the NIAMS has remained low compared to other institutes. These findings suggest that the NIH may need to reassess its allocation of research funding to align with the current health challenges of our country. Furthermore, these clinically relevant observations highlight the need to increase research funding for musculoskeletal diseases and improve their prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. No funding.

Atopic dermatitis: A global health perspective.

The International Society of AD (ISAD) organized a roundtable on global aspects of AD at the WCD 2023 in Singapore. According to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) consortium, at least 171 million individuals were affected with AD in 2019, corresponding to 2.23% of the world population, with age-standardized prevalence and incidence rates that were relatively stable from 1990 to 2019. Based on the panel experience, most AD cases are mild-to-moderate. Without parallel data on disease prevalence and severity, the GBD data are difficult to interpret in many regions. This gap is particularly important in countries with limited medical infrastructure, but indirect evidence suggests a significant burden of AD in low-and-medium resource settings, especially urban areas. The Singapore roundtable was an opportunity to compare experiences in World Bank category 1 (Madagascar and Mali), 3 (Brazil, China) and 4 (Australia, Germany, Qatar, USA, Singapore, Japan) countries. The panel concluded that current AD guidelines are not adapted for low resource settings and a more pragmatic approach, as developed by WHO for skin NTDs, would be advisable for minimal access to moisturizers and topical corticosteroids. The panel also recommended prioritizing prevention studies, regardless of the level of existing resources. For disease long-term control in World Bank category 3 and most category 4 countries, the main problem is not access to drugs for most mild-to-moderate cases, but rather poor compliance due to insufficient time at visits. Collaboration with WHO, patient advocacy groups and industry may promote global change, improve capacity training and fight current inequalities. Finally, optimizing management of AD and its comorbidities needs more action at the primary care level, because reaching specialist care is merely aspirational in most settings. Primary care empowerment with store and forward telemedicine and algorithms based on augmented intelligence is a future goal.

Epidemiological analysis reveals a surge in inflammatory bowel disease among children and adolescents: A global, regional, and national perspective from 1990 to 2019 - insights from the China study.

The burden of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) among children and adolescents is rising globally, with substantial variation in levels and trends of disease in different countries and regions, while data on the burden and trends were sparse in children and adolescents. We aimed to assess the trends and geographical differences in children and adolescents aged zero to 19 in 204 countries and territories over the past 30 years. Data on IBD among children and adolescents was collected from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database from 1990 to 2019. We used the GBD data and methodologies to describe the change in the burden of IBD among children and adolescents involving prevalence, incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality. Globally, the IBD prevalence cases increased between 1990 and 2019. Annual percentage changes (AAPC) = 0.15; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.11-0.19, and incidence cases of IBD increased from 20 897.4 (95% CI = 17 008.6-25 520.2 in 1990 to 25 658.6 (95% CI = 21 268.5-31 075.6) in 2019, representing a 22.78% increase, DALYs cases decreased between 1990 and 2019 (AAPC = -3.02; 95% CI = -3.15 to -2.89), and mortality cases of IBD decreased from 2756.5 (95% CI = 1162.6-4484.9) in 1990 to 1208.0 (95% CI = 802.4-1651.4) in 2019, representing a 56.17% decrease. Decomposition analysis showed that IBD prevalence and incidence increased significantly, and a trend exhibited a decrease in underlying age and population-adjusted IBD DALYs and mortality rates. Correlation analysis showed that countries with high health care quality and access (HAQ) had relatively higher IBD age-standardised prevalence rate (ASPR) and age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR), but lower age-standardised DALYs rate (ASDR) and age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR). Global prevalence and incidence rate of IBD among children and adolescents have been increasing from 1990 to 2019, while the DALYs and mortality have been decreasing. Rising prevalence and rising incidence in areas with historically low rates will have crucial health and economic implications.

Interpersonal Violence and Gender Inequality in Adolescents: A Systematic Analysis of Global Burden of Disease Data From 1990 to 2019

PurposeInterpersonal violence is a leading cause of adolescent deaths and disability. This study investigates sex differences in burden of interpersonal violence for adolescents and explores associations with gender inequality. MethodUsing data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study, we report numbers, proportions, rates of interpersonal violence deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) for all ages, and rate of change (from 1990 to 2019) in adolescents aged 10–24 years disaggregated by sex and geography. We explored associations with gender inequality using gender inequality index. ResultsOne in four (24.8%) all-age interpersonal violence deaths are in adolescents. In 2019, the rate of deaths in adolescent males was almost six times higher than females (9.3 vs. 1.6 per 100,000); and since 1990, the rate of decline in DALYs for females was double than that for males (−28.9% vs. −12.7%). By contrast, the burden of sexual violence is disproportionately borne by adolescent females, with over double the rate than males (DALYs: 42.8 vs. 17.5 per 100,000). In countries with greater gender inequality, the male-to-female ratio (deaths and DALYs) was increased among older adolescents, pointing to benefits for males in more gender equal settings. DiscussionSocial identities, relationships, and attitudes to violence are established in adolescence, which is an inflection point marking the emergence of disproportionate burdens of interpersonal violence. Our findings affirm that global agendas must be expanded to address interrelated factors driving multiple forms of interpersonal violence experienced by adolescents and reverberating to the next generation.

Global burden and inequality of maternal and neonatal disorders: based on data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study.

Maternal and neonatal disorders account for substantial health loss across the lifespan from early childhood. These problems may be related to health inequality. To provide evidence for improvement in health policies regarding maternal and neonatal disorder inequity. This was a population-based cross-sectional study based on 2019 Global Burden of Disease data. Annual cases and age-standardized rates (ASRs) of incidence, prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2019 were collected from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study. Concentration curves and concentration indices were used to summarize the degree of socioeconomic-related inequality. For maternal disorders, the global ASRs of incidence, prevalence, death and DALYs were 2889.4 (95% uncertainty interval (UI), 2562.9-3251.9), 502.9 (95% UI 418.7-598.0), 5.0 (95% UI 4.4-5.8) and 324.9 (95% UI 284.0-369.1) per 100000 women in 2019, respectively. The ASRs of maternal disorders were all obviously reduced and remained pro-poor from 1990 to 2019. In neonatal disorders, the global ASRs of incidence, prevalence, death and DALYs were 363.3 (95% UI 334.6-396.8), 1239.8 (95% UI 1142.1-1356.7), 29.1 (95% UI 24.8-34.5) and 2828.3 (95% UI 2441.6-3329.6) per 100000 people in 2019, respectively. The global ASRs of incidence, death and DALYs in neonatal disorders have remained pro-poor. However, the socioeconomic-related fairness in the ASR of neonatal disorder prevalence is being levelled. The global burden of maternal and neonatal disorders has remained high, and socioeconomic-related inequality (pro-poor) tended not to change between 1990 and 2019.

European’ health care indicators and pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality: A mediation analysis of Eurostat data and Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

AimTo highlight correlations existing between incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer, and health care indicators in 36 European countries. MethodsThe Global Burden of Disease (GBD) and Eurostat databases were queried between 2004 and 2019. Incidence and mortality were age-standardized. From Eurostat, indicators regarding expenditure, hospital beds, medical technology, health personnel, physicians by medical specialty and unmet needs for medical examination were extracted. Correlations between GBD and Eurostat data were analysed through mediation analysis applying clustering for countries. ResultsIncidence increased by +0.6% per year (p = 0.001) and mortality by +0.3% (p = 0.001), being increasing for most of the European countries considered. Incidence and mortality were strongly positively correlated (p = 0.001). Higher current health expenditure, expenditure in inpatient curative care, the number of available beds, the number of computed tomography scan, magnetic resonance units, practising medical doctors were all related to higher incidence (p < 0.05), whereas the unmet need for medical examinations was related to lower incidence. When the mediator’ effect of incidence was handled, these indicators, together with expenditure on outpatient curative cares, the number of pet scanners and of radiation therapy equipment, were related to lower mortality (p < 0.05). ConclusionsHealth care environment correlates with reported incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer. This highlights both that ameliorated socio-economic societies suffer from higher incidence but lower mortality, as well as the epidemiological bias originating from countries’ diagnostic ability.

The incidence of asthma attributable to temperature variability: An ecological study based on 1990–2019 GBD data

BackgroundAsthma, the second leading cause of death from chronic respiratory diseases, is associated with climate change, especially temperature changes. It is currently unclear about the relationship between long-term temperature variability and the incidence of asthma on a global scale. MethodsWe used asthma incidence, demographic and socioeconomic data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Results Database, and environmental and geographical statistics from TerraClimate between 1990 and 2019 to determine the association between maximum temperature variability and asthma incidence. We also predicted the incidence of heat-related asthma in the future (2020−2100) under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs: 126, 245, 370, and 585). ResultsBetween 1990 and 2019, the global median incidence of asthma was 402.0 per 100,000 with a higher incidence (median: 1380.3 per 100,000) in children under 10 years old. We found that every 1 °C increase in maximum temperature variability increased the risk of asthma globally by 5.0 %, and the effect was robust for individuals living in high-latitude areas or aged from 50 to 70 years. By 2100, the average incidence of asthma is estimated to be reduced by 95.55 %, 79.32 %, and 40.02 % under the SSP126, SSP245, and SSP370 scenarios, respectively, compared to the SSP585 at latitudes >60°. ConclusionOur study provides evidence that maximum temperature variability is associated with asthma incidence. These findings suggest that implementing stricter mitigation and adaptation strategies may be importment in reducing asthma cases caused by climate change.

Trends and projection of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years of HIV in the Middle East and North Africa (1990–2030)

Evidence shows a growing trend of the HIV epidemic in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). We aimed to project the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) in the region from 1990 to 2019 and assess its trend by 2025, and 2030. We extracted the HIV incidence, mortality, and DALY data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) and UNAIDS databases. The joinpoint regression model was used to examine changes in HIV trends. The trend changes were estimated by average annual percent change (AAPC). In most countries, an increasing trend was observed in HIV incidence, mortality, and DALY. Specifically, the highest growth in the annual incidence rate was related to Egypt (AAPC = 14.4, GBD) and Iran (AAPC = 9.6, UNAIDS). Notably, Qatar (AAPC = − 5.6, GBD), Bahrain (AAPC = − 3.3, GBD), and Somalia (AAPC = − 4.2, UNAIDS) demonstrated a significant reduction in incidence. Regarding mortality rates, Djibouti (AAPC = 24.2, GBD) and Iran (AAPC = 16.2, UNAIDS) exhibited a significant increasing pattern. Furthermore, the estimated increase in incidence by 2030 was most marked in Djibouti (985%) and Iran (174%). Iran (422%) and Egypt (339%) showed a prominent rise in mortality rates. GBD data showed 16 countries had an increasing pattern in DALY in both genders. According to age and period effects, there was a significant upward trend in incidence, mortality rates, and DALY. Findings highlighted the urgent need for improved prevention and treatment services, including expanding access to HIV testing, promoting safe practices, increasing antiretroviral therapy coverage, and supporting targeted interventions for high-risk populations.

Global burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to metabolic risk factors, 1990–2019: an analysis of observational data from a 2019 Global Burden of Disease study

ObjectivesAn up-to-date, detailed global analysis of the current status of the metabolic-attributed cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden has not been reported. Therefore, we investigated the global burden of metabolic-attributed CVD and...

Evaluation of the national governmental efforts between 1997 and 2010 in reducing health inequalities in England

ObjectivesThe pandemic has compounded existing inequalities. In the UK, there have been calls for a new cross-government health inequalities strategy. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of national governmental efforts between 1997 and 2010, referred to as the National Health Inequalities Strategy (NHIS). Study designpopulation-based observational study. MethodsUsing Global Burden of Disease data, age-standardised years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLL) rates per 10,000 were extracted for 150 Upper Tier Local Authority (UTLA) regions in England for every year between 1990 and 2019. The slope index of inequality was calculated using YLL rates for all causes, individual conditions, and risk factors. Joinpoint regression was used to assess the trends of any changes which arose before, during or after the NHIS. ResultsAbsolute inequalities in YLL rates for all causes remained stable between 1990 and 2000, before decreasing over the following 10 years. After 2010, improvements slowed. A similar trend can be observed amongst inequalities in YLLs for individual causes, including ischaemic heart disease, stroke, breast cancer and lung cancer amongst females, and ischaemic heart disease stroke, diabetes and self-harm amongst males. This trend was also observed amongst certain risk factors, notably blood pressure, cholesterol, tobacco and dietary risks. Inequalities were generally greater in males than in females; however, trends were similar across both sexes. The NHIS coincided with significant reductions in inequalities in YLLs due to ischaemic heart disease and lung cancer. ConclusionsThe findings suggest that the NHIS coincided with a reduction in health inequalities in England. Policy makers should consider a new cross-government strategy to tackle health inequalities drawing from the success of the previous NHIS.

Burden of knee osteoarthritis in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): an epidemiological analysis from 1990 to 2019.

Knee is the most affected joint in osteoarthritis (OA) and accounts for almost four-fifths of the burden of OA globally. We aimed to explore the prevalence, incidence, trends, and burden of knee OA during 1990-2019 in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study data. This is an epidemiological study based on the GBD data from 1990 to 2019 on knee OA in MENA countries. The prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLD) numbers of knee OA were obtained for both genders. Similarly, age-standardized rates of these indexes per 100,000 people and the proportion of total YLD caused by knee OA in each country and for the MENA region were evaluated. The prevalence of knee osteoarthritis in the MENA region increased 2.88-fold, from 6.16 million cases to 17.75 million, between 1990 and 2019. Furthermore, in 2019, knee osteoarthritis accounted for approximately 1.69 million (95% UI 1.46-1.95) incident cases in MENA. The age-standardized prevalence was higher in women between 1990 (3.94% [95% UI 3.39-4.55] in women and 3.24% [95% UI 2.79-3.72] in men) and 2019 (4.44% [95% UI 3.83-5.10] in women and 3.66% [3.14-4.21] in men). Total YLDs due to knee osteoarthritis increased by more than 2.88-fold, rising from 196.29 thousand [95% UI 97.17-399.29] in 1990 to 564.66 thousand [95% UI 275.06-1,150.68] in 2019. In the year 2019, Kuwait, Turkey, and Oman had the highest age-standardized prevalence (4.42% [95% UI 3.79-5.08]), YLD (132.41 [95% UI 65.79-267.56] per 100 000), and increase (21.17%) in YLD compared with 1990 in MENA region, respectively. The prevalence of and YLDs due to knee OA in MENA has escalated over the last three decades. Considering the expanding burden of knee OA in MENA, policymakers should be more concerned to implement preventive strategies.