Global Average Air Temperature Research Articles

Assessment of the Potential for Increasing the Energy Efficiency in the Cooling Sector

Cooling supply to ensure the indoor microclimate is becoming more important as global average air temperatures rise. With growing societal demands for higher thermal comfort and increasing individual cooling solutions in the building sector, global energy consumption for cooling is increasing accordingly. Scientific literature and studies estimate that the demand for cooling energy will have a significant impact on global energy demand in the future. In compliance with the European Union goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050, it is essential to find solutions for reducing energy consumption in the building sector, which is already among the largest energy consumers and greenhouse gas emission producers. Replacing individual cooling solutions with district cooling in urban areas where higher energy density can be reached is one of the solutions for decarbonizing the building sector. To spatially assess the feasibility of district cooling in certain areas, energy demand mapping can be performed. Within this research mapping is carried out using a geographical information system (GIS) tool. The purpose of the mapping is to identify the places in the city of Riga with the highest district cooling potential. Spatial assessment using a GIS tool can be done in different ways – mostly it depends on the available data. The spatial data (buildings) of the cadastral information system and additional detailed information about buildings were obtained from the Latvian open data portal. Information on the type of use of the building, indoor area and the age of building was attached to each building on the map. Then building energy certificate data containing information on specific energy consumption for cooling (kWh/m2 per year) was obtained from the same portal. By processing the data of energy certificates of buildings, excluding outliers, a specific index was obtained for different types of buildings. For the residential sector, the age of the building is also used. Using cadastral data on the indoor area of buildings and the type of building use, the theoretical cooling demand in Riga is calculated and results are quantified and displayed visually. By visualizing the results with the GIS tool, hot spots with the highest cooling energy demand were detected. Results can be further used to calculate the technical and economic justification for the district cooling solutions in specific areas as well as assess the energy efficiency that would be provided by implementation of district cooling solutions.

Глобальное изменение климата и лесные экосистемы

The article examines the relationship between the process of global climate change and the forest ecosystem, analyzes forecasts for an increase in the average global air temperature and the intensification of deforestation processes. Keywords: FOREST ECOSYSTEMS, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, GREENHOUSE GASES, DEFORESTATION, AVERAGE ANNUAL TEMPERATURE

Determination of Greenhouse Gas Concentrations from the 16U CubeSat Spacecraft Using Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy.

Greenhouse gases absorb the Earth's thermal radiation and partially return it to the Earth's surface. When accumulated in the atmosphere, greenhouse gases lead to an increase in the average global air temperature and, as a result, climate change. In this paper, an approach to measuring CO2 and CH4 concentrations using Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) is proposed. An FTIR spectrometer mockup, operating in the wavelength range from 1.0 to 1.7 μm with a spectral resolution of 10 cm-1, is described. The results of CO2 and CH4 observations throughout a day in urban conditions are presented. A low-resolution FTIR spectrometer for the 16U CubeSat spacecraft is described. The FTIR spectrometer has a 2.0-2.4 μm spectral range for CO2 and CH4 bands, a 0.75-0.80 μm range for reference O2 bands, an input field of view of 10-2 rad and a spectral resolution of 2 cm-1. The capabilities of the 16U CubeSat spacecraft for remote sensing of greenhouse gas emissions using a developed FTIR spectrometer are discussed. The design of a 16U CubeSat spacecraft equipped with a compact, low-resolution FTIR spectrometer is presented.

Climate Smart Livestock Production - Call for Food Security: A Review

Climate change is no more a myth but a reality supported by scientific evidence. The rapid change in environmental green house gases post industrialization is one such indicator responsible for global warming. Atmospheric concentrations of core GHGs carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased by 43%, 154% and 21%, respectively between 1750 to 2013. Similarly global average air temperature has increased from 0.74 in 1906 to 1.2°C in 2020 and sea level by 8 inches in last century, besides increased frequency in natural hazards like floods, draughts, cloud bursts, storms, typhoons and heat waves. The changing climate has negative impacts on human life as well as on livestock. However, livestock is believed to be the main contributor of methane, an important green house gas with 21 times more global warming potential in comparison to carbon dioxide. Since human population has tremendously increased and is further expected to increase by 33% till 2050 and at the same time due to urbanization, improved incomes and increased purchasing capacity, the demand for food of animal origin is increasing. In order to have food and nutritional security the production of livestock products is a necessity. Therefore, on one hand increase in livestock production and on the other hand minimizing the GHG emissions, the livestock sector warrants climate smart livestock production which will encompass climate resilient, environmentally sustainable, economically viable production of nutritious, safe, affordable livestock food and products.

Analysis of Global Warming and its Influencing Factors

In recent years, the earth is burning, whether global warming and its influencing factors, based on time series and gray prediction model, put forward the hypothesis and conclusion, provide the data of various factors, to evaluate the past temperature level, to predict the future global temperature level and its trend and analyze the influencing factors. For problem 1, first, based on the analysis of the global average air temperature data from March 2012-February 2022 and March 2022-October 2022, it is unscientific that the global temperature rise in March 2022 led to a larger rise than in the past 10 years. Second, the ARIMA model and the gray prediction model are used to describe the past global temperature levels and predict the future global temperature levels, respectively. The ARIMA model and the grey prediction model show that the global average annual temperature change has been stable in the past, while the prediction that the average temperature of 20.00°C in 2050 or 2100 is inaccurate. The grey prediction model shows that the global temperature levels will continue to rise in the future, and shows that the average temperature in 2,289 observations is expected to reach 20.00°C. According to the forecast, the global average temperature will not, as long as natural resources are properly used, reach 20.00°C. For problem 2, We first divide the Earth into the southern and northern hemisphere, and second into tropical and southern temperate and northern temperate zones. The linear relationship between global average temperature and the two conditions is discussed separately. According to the results, it significantly shows a strong correlation between the global average temperature and time. If unchecked, the global average temperature will grow over time. Second, using the principal component analysis method shows that may affect the global average temperature in the Middle East energy consumption, global hydropower consumption, world oil consumption, global niobium minerals, the world gas proven reserves, global crude oil production, global cadmium production, and to the results are tested, concluded that the principal component analysis method to influence the main indicators of the global average temperature method is more accurate. Therefore, the suggestions for global temperature change are made: to strive to reduce methane emissions; to further strengthen the strategic deployment and practical actions for energy revolution and low-carbon development, while increasing the intensity of energy low-carbon transformation. For problem 3, We propose the feasibility of this model evaluation and prediction results on slowing down or curbing global warming trends. One is direct emissions reduction, with countries signing contracts to force their carbon emissions and unite against global warming. Reduce heat emissions should be put on everyone's daily living habits, with a limited use of daily necessities, to achieve limited production, limited processing, so as to curb industrial flooding, reduce heat emissions. Second, the indirect emission reduction. With the development of industry, carbon dioxide emissions are constantly increasing, leading to a series of problems such as global warming and sea level rise. Afforestation can absorb the carbon dioxide contained in the atmosphere and reduce the greenhouse gas content in the atmosphere. Therefore, we must realize the importance of afforestation, take appropriate measures to improve the effect of afforestation, and better alleviate global warming.

Southeastern Brazil inland tropicalization: Köppen system applied for detecting climate change throughout 100years of meteorological observed data.

Many regions around the world are facing climate changes, with substantial increase in air temperature over the past decades, which is mainly related to continental and global warming forced by the higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The objectives of this study were to use the Köppen climate classification to detect local climate change based on a historical series of 100 years and to assess if such change is related to those that are occurring in other spatial scales as a likely consequence of increasing GHG. This paper brings a content full of innovative results. The study area presented an average annual air temperature increase by 0.9 °C between 1917 and 2016, rising from 21.4 °C for the first climatological normal (1917–1946) to 22.3 °C for the last one (1987–2016). Furthermore, in the summer months, the temperature rose from 24.5 to 25.3 °C, and in the winter months, such increase was from 17.1 (1917–1946) to 18.3 °C (1987–2016). Our findings showed the subtropical conditions (Cfa in Köppen’s classification) in the study area persisted from the beginning of the analysis (1917–1946) until the climatological normal of 1979–2008, with a clear tendency of tropicalization after that with a change in the climate type of Piracicaba from subtropical to tropical, which can now be classified as tropical with dry winter (Aw climate type). The local average air temperature showed concordances with the long-term air temperature anomalies from regional, continental, and global scales, indicating that all of them may be linked with increasing GHG emissions, since well-defined long-term linear relationships (r2 = 0.99) were observed between continental and global average air temperature anomalies and atmospheric CO2 concentration observed at the NOAA Lab in Mauna Loa in the last 59 years. While the local and regional forcing effects remain to be fully unraveled, our study provided a valid and strong scientific sound evidence that climate change occurred in Piracicaba, southeastern Brazil, in the last 100 years.

What Do We Mean by “Climate” and “Climate Change”?

Climate change is all over the news. But what exactly do we mean by “climate” and “climate change?” The word “climate” describes the average state of the atmosphere. It is a result of the composition and interactions between the natural elements: the air, oceans, plants and animals, ice and snow, and rocks. There are several different climate zones around the world. The state of the global climate is described by the average global air temperature. This temperature depends on how much heat the Earth receives from the Sun and how much of this heat is sent back to space. If the amount of heat received through the sun’s rays or the composition of one or several of the natural elements changes, the amount of heat taken up by the Earth changes. All elements are connected and constantly interacting, and this has consequences for the whole planet: climate change.

Predictive Model of Lake Photic Zone Temperature Across the Conterminous United States

As the average global air temperature increases, lake surface temperatures are also increasing globally. The influence of this increased temperature is known to impact lake ecosystems across local to broad scales. Warming lake temperature is linked to disruptions in trophic linkages, changes in thermal stratification, and cyanobacteria bloom dynamics. Thus, comprehending broad trends in lake temperature is important to understanding the changing ecology of lakes and the potential human health impacts of these changes. To help address this, we developed a simple yet robust random forest model of lake photic zone temperature using the 2007 and 2012 United States Environmental Protection Agency’s National Lakes Assessment data for the conterminous United States. The final model has a root mean square error of 1.48°C and an adjusted R2 of 0.88; the final model included 2,282 total samples. The sampling date, that day’s average ambient air temperature and longitude are the most important variables impacting the final model’s accuracy. The final model also included 30-days average temperature, elevation, latitude, lake area, and lake shoreline length. Given the importance of temperature to a lake ecosystem, this model can be a valuable tool for researchers and lake resource managers. Daily predicted lake photic zone temperature for all lakes in the conterminous US can now be estimated based on basic ambient temperature and location information.

The geostatistical analysis of the atmospheric precipitation in Europe on a West-East line transect

The general warming trend of the planet cannot be denied (the average global air temperature has increased by approx. 0.85°C between 1880-2012 (IPCC, 2013). The direct consequence of this warming is an increase in extreme weather events and hence in climate risks. The monitoring and assessing precipitation, identifying the physical laws governing its course in order to be able to estimate and forecast it in the future is therefore of great interest nowadays. Using geostatistical spatial analysis methods, this paper aims at identifying the correlations between longitude and precipitation (due to the specificity of the European climate, given by the major influence of the western circulation) and then an estimation - using linear regression equations - of precipitation amounts depending on longitude. Two variables were calculated for the statistical analysis: the proportion of the mean number of days with precipitation ≥ 10 mm of the multiannual mean of precipitation days (≥0,1 mm) and the precipitation ratio between the mean precipitation quantities in summer, compared to those in winter (hereinafter referred to as summer/winter precipitation ratio). The geostatistical analysis carried out on a sample of 40 weather stations aligned from west-south-west to east-north-east argues the existence of a strong correlation between longitude and the multiannual mean of days with precipitation ≥10 mm and between longitude and the summer/winter precipitation ratio.

Overheating Risk and Energy Demand of Nordic Old and New Apartment Buildings during Average and Extreme Weather Conditions under a Changing Climate

The global average air temperature is increasing as a manifestation of climate change and more intense and frequent heatwaves are expected to be associated with this rise worldwide, including northern Europe. Summertime indoor conditions in residential buildings and the health of occupants are influenced by climate change, particularly if no mechanical cooling is used. The energy use of buildings contributes to climate change through greenhouse gas emissions. It is, therefore, necessary to analyze the effects of climate change on the overheating risk and energy demand of residential buildings and to assess the efficiency of various measures to alleviate the overheating. In this study, simulations of dynamic energy and indoor conditions in a new and an old apartment building are performed using two climate scenarios for southern Finland, one for average and the other for extreme weather conditions in 2050. The evaluated measures against overheating included orientations, blinds, site shading, window properties, openable windows, the split cooling unit, and the ventilation cooling and ventilation boost. In both buildings, the overheating risk is high in the current and projected future average climate and, in particular, during exceptionally hot summers. The indoor conditions are occasionally even injurious for the health of occupants. The openable windows and ventilation cooling with ventilation boost were effective in improving the indoor conditions, during both current and future average and extreme weather conditions. However, the split cooling unit installed in the living room was the only studied solution able to completely prevent overheating in all the spaces with a fairly small amount of extra energy usage.

A review study on effect of global warming over mankind

The concentration of many greenhouse gases has risen throughout time. Human activity enhances the greenhouse gases impact mainly via emission of carbon dioxide, but human effects on other greenhouse gases is also significant. The continuous buildup of greenhouse gases promotes rising global warming. The recent IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2007 shows that global average air temperature near Earth's surface rose 0.74±0.18°C in the last century and report concluded “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in the concentration of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Global warming impacts many different aspects of life on Earth. Global warming impacts will include reductions in agricultural output, the continuing melting of glaciers and animal extinctions. New issues were progressively added to the list, ranging from the destruction of ecosystems to risks to human health. Experts in areas from forestry to finance, even national security experts, joined in to evaluate the spectrum of potential implications. The sad truth is that forecasting the effect of global warming is notoriously hard. It combines a wide variety of scientific disciplines together, including as oceanography, meteorology, and geology, although no one can agree on the precise effects for particular areas of the globe. All experts believe global warming will have many detrimental consequences on our planet and our way of life. The impact of global warming will have detrimental influence on the climatic conditions and water supplies.

High-impact marine heatwaves attributable to human-induced global warming

Marine heatwaves (MHWs)-periods of extremely high ocean temperatures in specific regions-have occurred in all of Earth's ocean basins over the past two decades, with severe negative impacts on marine organisms and ecosystems. However, for most individual MHWs, it is unclear to what extent they have been altered by human-induced climate change. We show that the occurrence probabilities of the duration, intensity, and cumulative intensity of most documented, large, and impactful MHWs have increased more than 20-fold as a result of anthropogenic climate change. MHWs that occurred only once every hundreds to thousands of years in the preindustrial climate are projected to become decadal to centennial events under 1.5°C warming conditions and annual to decadal events under 3°C warming conditions. Thus, ambitious climate targets are indispensable to reduce the risks of substantial MHW impacts.

Reduction of carbon absorption capacity of forest stands in Zhytomyr Polissya due to the pine stands mortality

According to the signed climate Paris Agreement, Ukraine is faced with the task to prevent the global average air temperature from rising above 2,0 °C in order to avoid an increase in droughts, extinction of certain species of plants and animals, drying up and diseases of tree species, etc. To preserve and increase the number of natural carbon sinks, scientists pay attention in particular to the system of improving forest, soil, and other natural resources management. Among thirty main forest-forming species in Ukraine, Scots pine (Pinus silvestris L.) is the predominant tree species, in Zhytomyr Polissya, in particular, its amount is 388,4 thousand hectares, which is 59 % of all tree plantations.
 To establish the carbon absorption capacity of pine plantations of Zhytomyr Polissya, we have laid temporary test squares (CCIs) in state-owned enterprises: Baran Forestry hunting enterprise; Belokrovytsia Forestry; Gorodnitsky Forestry; Emilchinskoye Forestry; Zhytomyr Forestry; Korostensky hunting enterprise; Malinsky Forestry; People's Specialized Forestry; Novograd-Volyn Experienced Forestry; Ovruch Specialized Forestry; Olevsky Forestry; Slovenian Forestry Agribusiness.
 According to the methods of P. I. Lakida, A. A. Storochinsky, O. I. Poluboyarynova, A. S. Atkin, A. I. Kobzar, we established a phytomass of pine plantations in a completely dry state and obtained conversion coefficients that made it possible to estimate the difference between CO2 emissions and carbon sequestration. 
 The statistical analysis showed homogenous average height, but not for other indicators. We found a very asymmetric right distribution in terms of age, density, bonity, Volume of the trunk, and phytomass, moderate distribution in terms of average diameter and left distribution for average height. The excess factor indicated an acute vertex distribution by density and a flat-top distribution by all other indicators.
 The total area covered by forest vegetation of pine forest areas is 388.4 thousand hectares (according to the latest accounting for 01.01.2011), with a total stock of stem wood 102.7 million m3, accumulate in their phytomass 23.5 million tons of carbon. The density of the phytomass per 1 m2 of forested vegetation is 52.7 kg. Medieval pine plantations absorb the most carbon in Zhytomyr Polissya — 12.1 million tons.
 In recent years, there has been an increase in lost areas covered with forest vegetation under pine trees due to the damage by biotic, abiotic and anthropogenic factors.
 The loss of pine forest plantations for various reasons reduces the carbon absorption capacity of Zhytomyr Polissya forests, as pine stands are the vast majority in the study area - 59%.
 It is established that pine forest plantations of Zhytomyr Polissya in their phytomass accumulate 23.5 million tons of carbon per year. The density of carbon per 1 m2 of forested vegetation is 25.7 kg.
 It is found that medieval pine plantations absorb the most amount of carbon in Zhytomyr Polissya — 12.1 million tonnes.
 It has been established that lost forest plantations due to anthropogenic, biotic and abiotic factors,between 2010 and 2018, could sequestrate 0.17-0.33 million tonnes of carbon in their phytomass reducing the level of CO2 pollution from 10 to 47 %.

Waste heat: the dominating root cause of current global warming

BackgroundPursuing GHG reductions by means of all resources and efforts has turned out no result to stop or even slow the global warming: the globe still gets warmer and warmer, especially in the recent years, at record-breaking rate almost each single year. Additionally, no definitive relationship has been found between the warming and the atmospheric GHG concentration. The link between them even in IPCC’s report lacks support and is unconvincing. All these imply that something else is responsible for the warming. On the other hand, huge amount of residual heat or waste heat from human activities has been poured into the climate system but has not been considered seriously in the context of global warming or climate change.ResultsThis article features deploying the basic principles of thermodynamics and applying a new model, Equivalent Climate Change Model, to analyse the currently available data on world energy consumption between 1965 and 2017, and to study the relation between the global warming and the waste heat entered the climate system. The results show that the temperature changes in air, oceans and land are definitively correlated to the respective heat allocated from the waste heat stream based on their specific heat capacities, with high certainty and reliability. The observed anomalies in air fall within a range of simulations at an equivalent climate change surface air boundary layer depth between 50 and 100 m (60 ~ 100 m in recent decades due to more establishments of high-rising heat discharging sources); the anomalies in oceans fall within a range of simulations at an equivalent climate change waters surface boundary layer depth between 0.10 and 0.20 m (0.125 ~ 0.20 m in recent decades); and the anomalies in land fall within a range of simulations at an equivalent climate change land surface boundary layer depth between 0.05 and 0.10 m (0.06 ~ 0.10 m in recent decades). The simulation results at the air layer depth of 70 m are almost the same as NASA’s Lowess smoothing trend. Forecast of future global warming based on this model under the scenario of business as usual indicates that the possible air temperature risings will be in the range of 0.68 ~ 1.13 °C in 2030 and 0.73 ~ 1.22 °C in 2040; the possible sea temperature risings will be in the range of 0.61 ~ 0.98 °C in 2030, 0.66 ~ 1.05 °C in 2040; and the possible land temperature risings will be in the range of 1.02 ~ 1.71 °C in 2030, 1.10 ~ 1.84 °C in 2040. However, if the energy conversion efficiency increased by 10% by 2030 and another 10% by 2040, then the possible air temperature risings would be in the range of 0.54 ~ 0.90 °C in 2030 and 0.44 ~ 0.73 °C in 2040; the possible sea temperature risings would be in the range of 0.49 ~ 0.78 °C in 2030, and 0.40 ~ 0.64 °C in 2040; and the possible land temperature risings would be in the range of 0.81 ~ 1.36 °C in 2030 and 0.66 ~ 1.11 °C in 2040. The observed global average air temperature changes and the Lowess Smoothing values in 2018 and 2019 fall within the range set by the air layer depth between 60 and 100 m, are consistent with the forecast under the scenario of business as usual, further confirms the reliability of this approach.ConclusionsGreenhouse gases are not the culprit of the current global warming, instead, huge amount of residual heat or waste heat discharged into the environment from human activities has dominated the warming (beside of solar irradiance and volcano eruptions). Pursuing GHG reductions is bound to be ineffective in preventing the globe from further warming but increases unnecessary burdens. Switching to 100% of surface renewable energies is the ideal solution to completely solve further warming problem. However, geotherm does cause global warming although it is a type of renewable energy. Increasing energy’s conversion efficiency can effectively help slow down the warming, it requires vast investment and will embrace breakthroughs in technologies. Changing human’s behavior individually and socially and retrofitting can decrease the energy consumption and the amount of heat entering the environment and thus help mitigate climate change and its impact in the most cost-effective way. Unlike the General Circulation Models that can only simulate the past air temperature changes with greater uncertainty, the Equivalent Climate Change Model can not only trace the past temperature changes in air, oceans and land, but also can predict the future changes in them, respectively, with high certainty and reliability.

Reduction of carbon glaring ability of tree stands of Kyiv Polissya through the death of pine forests

According to the signed climate Paris Agreement, Ukraine is faced with the task to prevent the global average air temperature from rising above 2°C in order to avoid an increase in droughts, plant and animal extinctions, the drying and spread of disease for certain plants, etc. To preserve and increase the number of natural carbon sinks, scientists pay attention in particular to the system of improving forest, soil, and other natural resource management.Among thirty main forest-forming species in Ukraine, Scots pine (Pinus silvestris L.) is the predominant tree species, in Kyiv Polissya, in particular, its amount is 211,2 thousand hectares, which is 61% of all tree plantations. To establish the carbon absorption capacity of pine plantations of Kyiv Polissya we have laid temporary test squares (CCIs) in stateowned enterprises: Ivankov Forestry Poliske Forestry, Teteriske Forestry. According to the methods of P.I. Lakida, A.A. Storochinsky, O.I. Poluboyarynova, A.S. Atkin, A.I. Kobzar, we established a phytomass of pine plantations in a completely dry state and obtained conversion coefficients that made it possible to estimate the difference between CO2 emissions and carbon sequestration.The analysis found that pine plantations accumulate 116.4 million tonnes of carbon per 1 m2 of forest area covered with forest vegetation in their phytomass, with a carbon density of 116.3 kg. It has been found that the largest carbon-absorbing capacity has medium-age trees — 28.7 million tons.It has been found that due to the loss of forest plantations in recent years, the carbon absorption capacity of forests has decreased on average by 1–7%.

Scenario-based Changes in the Annual Sum of Active Temperatures and Annual Total Precipitation in Russia and Neighboring Countries and Their Possible Consequences for Agriculture

The study presents the projected changes in two important agroclimatic parameters, namely, in the annual sum of active temperatures with a threshold of 10°С (SAT) and in annual total precipitation in Russia and neighboring countries. These changes are estimated using climatic data obtained by averaging the simulation results of 31 CMIP5 global climate models under the RCP4.5 moderate scenario of anthropogenic impact on the terrestrial climate system provided by the Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory. The changes are evaluated for the current 20 years (2011–2030) as compared to 1981–2000 and for 2034–2053, when the average global air temperature rise will reach 2°С relative to the preindustrial level as compared to 2011–2030. A statistically significant phased increase in the analyzed agroclimatic parameters is noted for the whole territory of Russia in the subsequent periods as compared to the previous ones. The scenario-based calculations reveal that the SAT increase will be more evenly distributed in space, whereas the increase in annual total precipitation will be rather nonuniform. The results may be used for the agricultural planning and for the realization of protection activities, with account of the prediction of the distribution and mass reproduction of agricultural plant pathogens.

ВУГЛЕЦЕПОГЛИНАЛЬНА ЗДАТНІСТЬ СОСНОВИХ ЛІСОВИХ НАСАДЖЕНЬ ЧЕРНІГІВСЬКОГО ПОЛІССЯ

Згідно з підписаною Паризькою кліматичною угодою перед Україною постало завдання не допус-тити зростання глобальної середньої температури повітря більше 2,5 °C, аби уникнути збільшення посух, зникнення окремих видів рослин і тварин, всихань і захворювань деревних порід та ін. Для збе-реження та збільшення кількості природних поглиначів вуглецю науковці надають особливу увагу системі покращення управління лісовими, ґрунтовими та іншими природними ресурсами. Серед тридцяти головних лісотвірних порід в Україні сосна звичайна (Pinus silvestris L.) є найпоширенішою де-ревною породою, зокрема в Чернігівському Поліссі, її кількість становить 214,2 тис. га, що складає 61 % від усіх деревних насаджень. Для встановлення вуглецепоглинальної здатності соснових наса-джень Чернігівського Полісся в державних підприємствах: Городнянське ЛГ, Добрянське ЛГ, Корюківське ЛГ, Ніжинське ЛГ ми заклали тимчасові пробні площі (ТПП). Згідно з методиками П. І. Лакиди, А. А. Сторочинського, О. І. Полубояринова, А. С. Аткина, А. І. Кобзаря встановлено фітомасу соснових насаджень в абсолютно сухому стані та отримано конверсійні коефіцієнти, які дали змогу оцінити різницю між викидами СО2 та поглинанням вуглецю. Згідно з проведеним аналі-зом розподілу площ лісових ділянок під сосновими насадженнями в Чернігівському Поліссі щонайбі-льше займають соснові ліси IV категорії (експлуатаційні) їх частка складає – 64 %, тому їх вугле-цепоглинальна здатність є більшою. Проаналізовано кліматичні зміни за період 1968–2018 рр., вста-новлено тенденцію до зростання середньорічної температури повітря на 2,5 оС у регіоні досліджен-ня. З’ясовано, що соснові ліси Чернігівського Полісся щорічно поглинають 34,0 тис. т вуглецю з по-вітря, що приблизно становить 1,37–2,15 % від щорічних викидів вуглецю в атмосферне повітря, а це своєю чергою має позитивний вплив на стан навколишнього середовища в регіоні дослідження.

Warm and dry weather accelerates and elongates Cladosporium spore seasons in Poland.

Temperature is the environmental factor that systematically changes for decades and, as in plants and animals, can significantly affect the growth and development of fungi, including the abundance of their sporulation. During the time of study (2010–2012), a rapid increase in air temperature was observed in Poland, which coincided with the substantial decrease in rainfall. The increase in annual mean temperatures at three monitoring sites of this study was 0.9 °C in Lublin and Rzeszow (east Poland) and 2.0 °C in Poznan (west Poland). Such warming of air masses was comparable to the average global air temperature rise in the period of 1880–2012 accounting for 0.85 °C, as reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Moreover, there was a substantial decrease in rainfall, ranging from 32.7 % (Poznan) to 43.0 % (Rzeszow). We have demonstrated that under such conditions the mean and median values of total Cladosporium spore counts significantly increased and the spore seasons were greatly accelerated. Moreover, earlier start and later end of the season caused its extension, lasting from over 20 days in Rzeszow to around 60 days in Lublin and Poznan, when the cumulative amount of 5–95 % of spores was considered. The time of reaching the cumulative amount of 50 % of spores was up to 25 days earlier (difference in Poznan between 2010 and 2012). There was also a striking acceleration of the date of the maximal Cladosporium spore concentration per cubic metre of air (26 days for Lublin, 43 for Poznan and 56 for Rzeszow).

On the problem of the global climate change

Considered is the existence of an alternative to the speeding-up climate warming predicted due to anthropogenic increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The series of observed and simulated average global air temperature are compared using wavelets. It is revealed that the scenarios of the climate change for the next decades cannot be worked out based on the modern climate models. Proposed is the scenario based on the real peculiarities of global temperature variations. According to this scenario, not only the temperature stabilization that has lasted for 15 years will be kept but also the certain cooling is possible.

Golden age of gas and its impact on the world energy, the global carbon cycle and climate

Global and regional resource and environmental problems of production and use of unconventional gas (UG) are studied. Estimations for world and national reserves of various kinds of UG are presented. The dynamics of the gas share in total energy consumption and thermal power generation around the world is analyzed. Projections of the world production of conventional gas and UG are proposed. Variations in carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere and the corresponding changes in average global air temperature are calculated for various scenarios suggesting unconventional gas substitution of different energy sources. The possible consequences of expected climate changes for Russia’s power industry are analyzed. It is shown that, despite the uncertainty in the estimates of the economic and environmental consequences of shale gas (SG) production, its use, according to the available resource estimates, can make it possible to solve global and regional problems associated with energy (import substitution) and environment protection (replacing the less clean coal fuel). However, the development of the huge global resources of this type of fuel can have a significant effect on the chemical and thermal radiative balance of the Earth’s atmosphere, and it must be noted that the climatic effect of carbon dioxide emissions from the UG combustion greatly exceeds the consequences of methane leakage during its production. In order to sustain the stability of the global climate system, the development of the world’s large UG resources must be accompanied by an equivalent reduction in the use of coal. This is the only way for UG to become a safe energy bridge to the future, able to keep the climate system at the threshold of critical values. Direct effects of possible climatic changes on the territory of Russia for the domestic energy complex are estimated as more positive than adverse, mainly due to lower energy costs for space heating.