Glacier Lake Outburst Floods Research Articles

Exploring the potential of historical images for the investigation of glacier changes: the case of Belvedere Glacier, Italian Alps

Historical images dispersed in various archives can be instrumental in documenting processes connected to glacier changes in mountains. A series of more than 29 engravings and photographs of the Monte Rosa east face have been found covering the period since 1789. Some images were produced by a combination of photography and engraving, a common approach before practical techniques for printing halftone images were introduced. Using a repeat photography approach, the present study documents the changes in the extent and debris cover of the Belvedere Glacier. Based on visual comparison of images, it appears that the debris cover of the lower part of the glacier developed mainly during the period of the 1860s–1880s. Furthermore, the image series documents the evolution of the terminus both in terms of elevation and shape, as well as a breach in lateral moraine which could be dated back to the end of the 19th century, well before the reported glacier lake outburst flood in 1904.

Hydrodynamic reconstruction of the paleoflood from the Early Holocene ice-dammed lake Nedre Glomsjø, Norway

Study regionNorway Study focusNumerous geological traces provide evidence for the existence, size and catastrophic drainage of the Early Holocene glacial lake Nedre Glomsjø in southern Norway. We present, for the first time, a hydraulic reconstruction that links the three domains of the glacial lake outburst flood process chain: lake hypsometry, tunneling under the remnant ice sheet and subsequent deluge downstream. This is done by first reconstructing the hypsometry of the lake using paleo shorelines observed from modern high-resolution elevation data. The development of an ice tunnel under the remnant ice sheet is then simulated using an ensemble approach to determine a suite of hydrographs for the range of possible parameter combinations. These hydrographs are applied as upstream input to a 2D hydrodynamic model of the flood propagation. The flood marker dataset includes abundant landforms and flood traces at multiple scales, such as erosive paleostage indicators, sediment records and large-scale flood bars. The results from each domain are constrained by the flood marker dataset, which adds to the robustness of our interpretation. New hydrological insights for the regionThe reconstruction shows that glacial lake Nedre Glomsjø covered roughly 1250 km2, and that ∼100 km3 of water was available for drainage. The peak discharge of the glacier lake outburst flood was at least 1.5 ×106 m3/s and probably closer to 2.0 ×106 m3/s. Our results demonstrate the benefit of assembling the entire process chain from glacial lake, tunnel expansion and flood propagation in a single modeling framework to give robust results that satisfy multiple geological constraints for each component of the glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) system. The methodology described in this paper can be applied to contemporary and future glacial lakes to better predict GLOFs in a changing climate.

A geospatial modelling for glacial lake outburst floods susceptibility analysis in the Central Himalayas

ABSTRACT Glacial lakes have increased throughout a significant portion of the Himalayan region, and hence the present study focuses on a geospatial modelling approach for analysing the susceptibility to glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF) in the central Himalayan region. Multitemporal satellite imageries such as Landsat-TM and Sentinel-2 were taken. The hydrodynamic compatibility tool, i.e. HEC-RAS 5.0, was used for GLOF prediction, and the lake volume and surface area were calculated using established empirical equations. The breach fails and flood flow were approximated, and arising uncertainties were analysed with three outburst scenarios. The number of lakes and their sizes have significantly increased according to the findings of the study. Of these, the Vasundhara Lake (VL), which is located at 4,676 m above the sea level, is assigned to the hazardous category for more examination. It has been found that the lake's area expanded over the past three decades (i.e. 1994–2020), rising from 0.15 to 0.29 km2. The study demonstrates that, in the worst-case situation, infrastructure along riverbanks may be susceptible to harm. The study provides information on the potential effects of GLOF events in the study region that might be used in early warning systems and water resource management plans.

Evolution of the Lower Barun lake and its exposure to potential mass movement slopes in the Nepal Himalaya

The Lower Barun Lake, the largest glacier-fed lake in the Nepal Himalaya, has been designated as critically or highly vulnerable to Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) due to the lake's massive volume and steep side walls that are susceptible to mass movements. The current study estimates the future evolution of the lake's extent and its exposure to potential avalanche under different climate scenarios by simulating the evolution of the Lower Barun glacier, which feeds the lake. We then assess this exposure (i) at the lake's current extent, (ii) when the lake length grows to 75 % of its maximum length, and (iii) when the lake length reaches its maximum possible length. We use a mass conservation based numerical flowline model for our analyses. The model was forced by the glacier surface mass balance (SMB) and meteorological data collected from weather stations in Kathmandu, Nepal and Darjeeling, India. Modelled lake lengths matched measured lengths within an RMSE of ∼200 m. Analyses show that under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios, the lake will reach its maximum length by 2075 ± 2 and 2061 ± 1, respectively. The largest uncertainty in future lake length fluctuations is approximately 200 m. Our study reveals that in current conditions, the zone where the angle of reach of potential avalanches is highest lies on the slopes along the right shore (south side) of the lake. The angle of reach shifts upstream and steepens—and the mass movement hazard increases—as the lake grows in the future.

Retrospective Analysis of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) Using AI Earth InSAR and Optical Images: A Case Study of South Lhonak Lake, Sikkim

On 4 October 2023, a glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF) occurred at South Lhonak Lake in the northwest of Sikkim, India, posing a severe threat to downstream lives and property. Given the serious consequences of GLOFs, understanding their triggering factors is urgent. This paper conducts a comprehensive analysis of optical imagery and InSAR deformation results to study changes in the surrounding surface of the glacial lake before and after the GLOF event. To expedite the processing of massive InSAR data, an InSAR processing system based on the SBAS-InSAR data processing flow and the AI Earth cloud platform was developed. Sentinel-1 SAR images spanning from January 2021 to March 2024 were used to calculate surface deformation velocity. The evolution of the lake area and surface variations in the landslide area were observed using optical images. The results reveal a significant deformation area within the moraine encircling the lake before the GLOF, aligning with the area where the landslide ultimately occurred. Further research suggests a certain correlation between InSAR deformation results and multiple factors, such as rainfall, lake area, and slope. We speculate that heavy rainfall triggering landslides in the moraine may have contributed to breaching the moraine dam and causing the GLOF. Although the landslide region is relatively stable overall, the presence of a crack in the toparea of landslide raises concerns about potential secondary landslides. Our study may improve GLOF risk assessment and management, thereby mitigating or preventing their hazards.

Geothermal heat source estimations through ice flow modelling at Mýrdalsjökull, Iceland

Abstract. Geothermal heat sources beneath glaciers and ice caps influence local ice-dynamics and mass balance but also control ice surface depression evolution as well as subglacial water reservoir dynamics. Resulting jökulhlaups (i.e., glacier lake outburst floods) impose danger to people and infrastructure, especially in Iceland, where they are closely monitored. Due to hundreds of meters of ice, direct measurements of heat source strength and extent are not possible. We present an indirect measurement method which utilizes ice flow simulations and glacier surface data, such as surface mass balance and surface depression evolution. Heat source locations can be inferred accurately to simulation grid scales; heat source strength and spatial distributions are also well quantified. Our methods are applied to the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap in Iceland, where we are able to refine previous heat source estimates.

Natural Hazards in a Changing World: Methods for Analyzing Trends and Non‐Linear Changes

AbstractEstimating the frequency and magnitude of natural hazards largely hinges on stationary models, which do not account for changes in the climatological, hydrological, and geophysical baseline conditions. Using five diverse case studies encompassing various natural hazard types, we present advanced statistical and machine learning methods to analyze and model transient states from long‐term inventory data. A novel storminess metric reveals increasing European winter windstorm severity from 1950 to 2010. Non‐stationary extreme value models quantify trends, seasonal shifts, and regional differences in extreme precipitation for Germany between 1941 and 2021. Utilizing quantile sampling and empirical mode decomposition on 148 years of daily weather and discharge data in the European Alps, we assess the impacts of changing snow cover, precipitation, and anthropogenic river network modifications on river runoff. Moreover, a probabilistic framework estimates return periods of glacier lake outburst floods in the Himalayas, demonstrating large differences in 100‐year flood levels. Utilizing a Bayesian change point algorithm, we track the onset of increased seismicity in the southern central United States and find correlation with wastewater injections into deep wells. In conclusion, data science reveals transient states for very different natural hazard types, characterized by diverse forms of change, ranging from gradual trends to sudden change points and from altered seasonality to overall intensity variations. In synergy with the physical understanding of Earth science, we gain important new insights into the dynamics of the studied hazards and their possible mechanisms.

Shaking up Assumptions: Earthquakes Have Rarely Triggered Andean Glacier Lake Outburst Floods

AbstractAs the world’s glaciers recede in response to a warming atmosphere, a change in the magnitude and frequency of related hazards is expected. Among the most destructive hazards are glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs), and their future evolution is concerning for local populations and sustainable development policy. Central to this is a better understanding of triggers. There is a long‐standing assumption that earthquakes are a major GLOF trigger, and seismic activity is consistently included as a key hazard assessment criterion. Here, we provide the first empirical evidence that this assumption is largely incorrect. Focusing on the Tropical Andes, we show that, of 59 earthquakes (1900–2021) the effects of which intersect with known glacier lakes, only one has triggered GLOFs. We argue that, to help develop climate resilient protocols, the focus for future assessments should be on understanding other key GLOF drivers, such as thawing permafrost and underlying structural geology.

Evolutionary model for glacial lake-outburst fans at the ice-sheet front: Development of meltwater outlets and origins of bedforms

Large-scale landforms originated from jökulhlaups or glacial lake-outburst floods (GLOFs), and their small-scale components help in recognising the sedimentary environment of the flood. The GLOF fans that developed along the Pleistocene ice-sheet margin have not been investigated in detail, and north-eastern Poland, with its Megaflood Landform System and Bachanowo and Szeszupka fans, seems ideal for landform and sedimentary studies. This paper provides (1) an important opportunity to recognise the origins of glacier lake-outburst flood outlets and their evolution during two GLOFs and (2) a model of the origin of ice-marginal fans considering changes in sedimentary environment reflecting flood stages. During the first GLOF (GLOF1), the rising stage of meltwater burst triggered the formation of a supraglacial outlet and the development of the Szeszupka outburst fan. During the pulsed peak discharge, subglacial multi-channelised meltwater outburst caused the formation of the Bachanowo Gate, which was finally transformed at the flood waning stage. Such processes were associated with the widening of the floodwater subglacial routeway, when floodwater outlets rapidly spread across the glacier snout. In contrast, GLOF2 was responsible only for the Szeszupka fan erosion and development of outburst terraces. The small-scale bedforms continuum, recognised on the outburst fan surface, is associated with the development of streamlined erosional residuals, scours and their trains during the rising stage and peak discharge, while the waning stage and very end of flood conditions were favourable to the formation of pendant bars, distributive channels with erosional bars and chute bars, regardless of the feeding systems of the outburst fans.The fan deposits were OSL-dated and revealed either, likely, overly old ages or an age of 13.2 ± 0.9 ka. The latter age would imply the ‘normal’ meltwater outflow having a correlation with the events in the region. Nevertheless, this age might be considered a minimum age of the flood.

A glacial lake outburst floods hazard assessment in the Patagonian Andes combining inventory data and case-studies

We present a glacial-related lake inventory for a region spanning 41.5° - 47° S in Patagonian Andes, where information on past glacier lake outburst floods (GLOF's) has hitherto remained significantly underreported. Analyzing remotely sensed images, we obtained data on 702 glacial-related lakes. Through detailed geomorphic assessments and manual supervision, we revised current inventories and added 35 GLOFs triggered from moraine/bedrock dammed lakes failures. The regional GLOF inventory presented contains information on 71 historical failures of moraine/bedrock dammed glacial lakes. From this database we analyzed outburst timing and managed to constrain 37 events occurrences within a period of 1 year. Around 40 % of them have occurred since the early 2000's, most of them originating from lakes probably formed as a delayed response to the glacial retreat imposed by the end of the Little Ice Age. On the other hand, we analyzed meteorological conditions for a sub-set of 10 events constrained within a 10-days period, finding a strong link between atmospheric rivers, cut-off lows impacting the southern Andes, and GLOFs. Only one case is likely to have been triggered by a Mw 4.9 earthquake. Based on topographic potential for avalanching, we estimated GLOF hazard potential, recognizing at least 3 subregions with high hazard, which moreover can be highly susceptible to climate conditions that regionally affect GLOF occurrence.

Simulating glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) with a two-phase/layer debris flow model considering fluid-solid flow transitions

AbstractGlacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) initiate with the rapid outburst of a glacier lake, endangering downstream populations, land, and infrastructure. The flow initiates as a mud flow; however, with the entrainment of additional solid material, the flood will often transform into a debris flow. As the run-out slope flattens, the coarse solid material deposits and the flow de-waters. The flow transforms back into a muddy, hyperconcentrated flow of fine sediments in suspension. These flow transitions change the flow composition dramatically and influence both the overall mass balance and flow rheology of the event. In this paper, we apply a two-phase/layer model to simulate flow transitions, solid–fluid phase separations, entrainment, and run-out distances of glacier lake outburst floods. A key feature of the model is the calculation of dilatant actions in the solid–fluid mixture which control flow transitions and phase separations. Given their high initial amount of fluid within the flow, GLOFs are sensitive to slope changes inducing flow transitions, which also implies changes in the flow rheology. The changes in the rheology are computed as a function of the flow composition and do not need any adaptation by ad-hoc selection of friction coefficients. This procedure allows the application of constant rheological input parameters from initiation to run-out. Our goal is to increase the prediction reliability of debris flow modeling. We highlight the problems associated with initial and boundary (entrainment) conditions. We test the new model against the well-known Lake 513 (Peru, 2010), Lake Palcacocha (Peru, 1941), and Lake Uchitel in the Aksay Valley (Kyrgyzstan) GLOF events. We show that flow transition modeling is essential when studying areas that have significant variations in slope.

Bathymetries of proglacial lakes: a new data set from the northern Tien Shan, Kazakhstan

Between 2009 and 2020, 74 bathymetric surveys of 57 glacial lakes were conducted in the northern Tien Shan using the ecosounding technique. The surveys provided data on lake depths and other parameters characterising the three-dimensional lake geometry, and bathymetrically derived lake volumes. The sample included 21 glacier-connected lakes, 27 lakes formed on the young moraines without glacier-connected with glacier tongue, eight lakes formed on the older moraines and one rock-dammed lake. The lakes’ volumes ranged between 0.029x105 and 53.89x105 m3 with the largest value of mean depth was 23 m. There is a statistically significant correlation between lake depth and width, length and area, best approximated by the power, linear, and polynomial models, with coefficients of determination ranging between 0.50 and 0.78 for the glacier-connected lakes. The power equations underestimated both depths and volumes of larger lakes but the second-order polynomial model provided a closer approximation in the study region. The obtained data were combined with the bathymetrically derived depth and volume data published in the literature extending the global data set of bathymetries of lakes with natural dams. The area-depth scaling equations derived from the combined data set showed a considerable improvement in correlation between area and depth in comparison with the earlier studies. The measured bathymetries of the glacier-connected lakes were compared with bathymetries of the same lakes simulated using GlabTOP2 model and published simulated ice thickness data. There is generally a good agreement between the measured and simulated bathymetries although GlabTOP2 tends to overestimate lake depths. The data from the bathymetric surveys and GlabTOP2 model are used by the practitioners to reduce and avoid risks associated with glacier lake outburst floods and are important instruments of the regional strategy of adaptation to climate change.

Hidden dangers of ice avalanches and glacier lake outburst floods on the Tibetan Plateau: identification, inventory, and distribution

Hidden dangers of ice avalanches and glacier lake outburst floods on the Tibetan Plateau: identification, inventory, and distribution

A global database of historic glacier lake outburst floods

Abstract. Ongoing atmospheric warming has accelerated glacier mass loss in many mountain regions worldwide. Glacier lakes trap part of the glacial meltwater and have increased by about 50 % in number and area since the 1990s. Some of these glacier lakes may empty catastrophically and pose hazards to mountain communities, infrastructure, and habitats. Such glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have caused millions of dollars of damages and fatalities and are one of many concerns about future changes in the magnitude, frequency, and impacts of processes of a shrinking mountain cryosphere. Consistently compiled inventories are thus vital to assess regional and local trends in GLOF occurrence, hazard, and risk. To this end, we studied 769 literature and internet sources and developed a standardized database with 57 attributes that describe and quantify the location, dam type, size, timing, and impacts of GLOFs in nine glaciated mountain regions. Our GLOF inventory also includes details about the lake area before and after the outburst for 391 cases that we manually mapped from optical satellite images since 1984. In total, we compiled 3151 reported GLOFs that occurred in 27 countries between 850 and 2022 CE. Most GLOFs have been reported in NW North America (26 %) and Iceland (19 %). However, the reporting density in our inventory varies. During the 20th century alone, the number of yearly documented GLOFs increased 6-fold. Less than one-quarter of all reported cases feature hydrodynamic characteristics such as flood peak discharge or volume or estimates of loss and damage. Our inventory more than doubles the number of reported GLOFs in a previous global inventory, though gaps in attributes remain. Our data collection process emphasizes the support of local experts in contributing previously undocumented cases, and we recommend applying protocols when reporting new cases. The global database on historic GLOFs is archived at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7330344 (Lützow and Veh, 2023a) and regularly updated at http://glofs.geoecology.uni-potsdam.de/ (last access: 9 May 2023).

Monitoring Glacier Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) of Lake Merzbacher Using Dense Chinese High-Resolution Satellite Images

Establishing an effective real-time monitoring and early warning system for glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) requires a full understanding of their occurrence mechanism. However, the harsh conditions and hard-to-reach locations of these glacial lakes limit detailed fieldwork, making satellite imagery a critical tool for monitoring. Lake Mercbacher, an ice-dammed lake in the central Tian Shan mountain range, poses a significant threat downstream due to its relatively high frequency of outbursts. In this study, we first monitored the daily changes in the lake area before the 2022 Lake Mercbacher outburst. Additionally, based on historical satellite images from 2014 to 2021, we calculated the maximum lake area (MLA) and its changes before the outburst. Furthermore, we extracted the proportion of floating ice and water area during the period. The results show that the lake area of Lake Mercbacher would first increase at a relatively low speed (0.01 km2/day) for about one month, followed by a relatively high-speed increase (0.04 km2/day) until reaching the maximum, which would last for about twenty days. Then, the lake area would decrease slowly until the outburst, which would last five days and is significant for early warning. Moreover, the floating ice and water proportion provides more information about the outburst signals. In 2022, we found that the floating ice area increased rapidly during the early warning stage, especially one day before the outburst, accounting for about 50% of the total lake area. Historical evidence indicates that the MLA shows a decreasing trend, and combining it with the outburst date and climate data, we found that the outburst date shows an obvious advance trend (6 days per decade) since 1902, caused by climate warming. Earlier melting results in an earlier outburst. This study provides essential references for monitoring Lake Mercbacher GLOFs and building an effective early warning system.

Inter-Decadal Dynamics of Glacier Area and Supra-glacial Lakes Over Hispar Glacier, Western Karakoram

Glaciers of the central Karakorum region are the primary source of fresh water and lifeline for downstream inhabitants but changing climatic conditions put serious impacts on glaciers which cause rapid ablation and the creation of glacial lakes. Many natural hazards are associated with glaciers and glacial lakes like Glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF). Using Geographic Information System and Remote sensing techniques on Hispar glacier which is part of central Karakorum, the current study applied Landsat (TM, ETM, ETM+, and OLI) and sentinel-2 satellite imagery. Further, mapping to the Hispar glacier is done to know the variations in glacier and supraglacial lakes between 1990 and 2019. According to the results, about 90% of glacial ponds are present in the debris-covered area while only 10% are present in the clean ice and scow area. This study identifies the decreasing trend in the number and the area of glacial lakes. In 1990, about 42 glacial ponds were covering a total area of 0.733km2, whereas, in 2019, 20 glacial lakes were covering an area of 0.18km2. In the last three decades (1990-2019) about 20km2 of clean ice and snow is increased. The findings of climate data revealed that there is a decreasing trend of temperature and an increasing trend of precipitation. Since 1995, about 0.75oC temperature is observed in HRB. The findings of this study somehow support the Karakoram anomaly.

Glacial lake changes and the identification of potentially dangerous glacial lakes (PDGLs) under warming climate in the Dibang River Basin, Eastern Himalaya, India

Climate warming has caused accelerated glacier recession in the Eastern Himalayas. This phenomenon has consequently resulted in the development of new glacial lakes and expansion of the existing ones. The outbursts of these lakes has the potential to cause flashfloods with negative impacts for the downstream community. This study used Remote Sensing data products to develop a glacial lake database of Dibang River Basin for the year 2020. The multi-temporal Landsat series data was used to examine the surficial changes in glacial lakes larger than 0.1 km2. The key parameters derived from previous glacial lake studies were used to identify the Potentially Dangerous Glacial Lakes (PDGLs) and conduct their hazard assessment. Finally, the Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analysis (IMDAA) data was used to analyze the Temperature and Precipitation trends from 1980 to 2020 to understand timpact of climate change on lake behaviour. Our findings reveal that the study region has 403 glacial lakes with a total area of 55.73 km2 in 2020. The area of selected glacial lakes has increased from 29.96 km2 in 1985 to 32.56 km2 in 2020 at a rate of 0.07 km2 per year. Twelve (12) lakes were identified as PDGLs in the study region. After applying the weighted index method, 4 lakes among them were categorized as high, 5 as medium and 3 as low hazard glacial lakes. The Mann Kendal test of Tmin, Tmax and Tmean revealed an increasing trend with a Z statics value of >0, whereas mean precipitation on the contrary showed a significant decreasing trend with a Z statics value of <0. The changes in climatic variables (i.e., temperature and precipitation) indicate that the warmer conditions prevail in the region, causing glacier shrinking and retreat, formation of new lakes and expansion of existing ones. Hence, we propose the continuous monitoring and assessment of high hazard glacial lakes for the prevention and mitigation of Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in the study region.

Future growth and decline of high mountain Asia's ice-dammed lakes and associated risk

Glaciers around the world are shrinking rapidly and will continue to do so in the next decades. Anticipating the consequences resulting from such glacier changes is key to design and implement adequate mitigation measures. Here, we focus on the future evolution of potential ice-dammed and supraglacial lakes in High Mountain Asia, as such lakes are responsible for the majority of glacier lake outburst floods in the region. We identify 11,129 potential lakes at present, with a total maximum volume of 2070 million m3. We find a strong correlation between large modelled lakes and historical outburst floods. By accounting for the evolution of glaciers under different climate change mitigation measures, we project that the number of potential ice-dammed lakes could increase by between 15 and 18% until 2080, with a concomitant 45–55% increase in their volume. Our findings thus suggest that a temporary increase of glacier lake outburst floods is to be expected in the coming decades.

Transition of a small Himalayan glacier lake outburst flood to a giant transborder flood and debris flow

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a great concern for the Himalaya, as they can severely damage downstream populations and infrastructures. These floods originate at high altitudes and can flow down with enormous energy and change the terrain’s existing morphology. One such devastating event occurred on the night of 5 July 2016, from the inconspicuous Gongbatongsha Lake, located in the Poiqu basin, Eastern Himalaya. The Poiqu basin in the Tibetan Autonomous Region currently contains numerous big glacial lakes; however, this event originated from a small lake. The GLOF was triggered following heavy precipitation that led to a slope failure above the lake and deposition of debris into the lake, which breached the moraine dam and rapidly drained the entire lake. The flood damaged several downstream infrastructures, including the Arniko highway, the Upper Bhotekoshi hydropower plant, and several buildings as it made its way into the Bhotekoshi basin in Nepal. This study adopts a multi-model approach to reconstruct the GLOF trigger and the flood’s transformation into a severe debris flow. Proxies including flow discharge, flow velocity, runout distances were used to calibrate the model and validate the results. Results reveal that a debris flow of volume ranging between 3000 and 6000 m3 from the headwall must have led to lake overfill, eventually leading to the GLOF event. The GLOF showed a significant increase in peak discharge from 618 to 4123 m3 s−1 at the Zhangzangbo-Bhotekoshi confluence. The average velocity of the flow is calculated to be ~ 5.5 m s−1. Reconstruction of the erosion and deposition dynamics show that maximum erosion occurred in the first 6.5 km, with maximum deposition occurring near the Upper Bhotekoshi hydropower station. The modeling indicates that the availability of the entrainable debris along the channel, likely from the previous landslides, amplified the event by three orders of magnitude-additional water ingested from the river. Overall, we demonstrate how the small-scale Gongbatongsha GLOF amplified downstream by incorporating pre-existing sediment in the valley and triggered damaging secondary landslides leading to an economic loss of > 70 million USD.

Overtopping volume of impulse waves in glacier lakes: Experimental and numerical investigation using rigid dams

Glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) that result from the breaching of moraine dams are typical disasters in high mountain regions of the Tibetan Plateau, which endanger vital infrastructures such as the Sichuan-Tibet Railway and Highway. Breaching can be caused by tsunami-type waves, resulting from glaciers calving and falling into impounded lakes, which overtop and destroy their natural boundaries. In this work, we develop an equation for the overtopping volume based on the simplified geometry of fluids running up an incline. Specifically, we propose that overtopping can be viewed in terms of the run-up of solitary waves impacting a structure from which relationships with the dam and wave properties can be established. This equation is tested and verified against physical experiments and numerical simulations of waves overtopping rigid, impermeable triangular structures which serve as idealized natural dams. The proposed equation is found to adequately account for the first-order dependencies of the overtopping volume on the different dam and wave properties. We extend the applicability of this analysis to erodible dams made up of glacier tills, wherein we show the basic dependence of the overtopping volume on the erodibility of the dams and flood scales.