Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Signal Research Articles

Influence of GIA Uncertainty on Climate Model Evaluation With GRACE/GRACE‐FO Satellite Gravimetry Data

AbstractGlobal coupled climate models are in continuous need for evaluation against independent observations to reveal systematic model deficits and uncertainties. Changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) as measured by satellite gravimetry missions GRACE and GRACE‐FO provide valuable information on wetting and drying trends over the continents. Challenges arising from a comparison of observed and modelled water storage trends are related to gravity observations including non‐water related variations such as, for example, glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). Therefore, correcting secular changes in the Earth's gravity field caused by ongoing GIA is important for the monitoring of long‐term changes in terrestrial water from GRACE in particular in former ice‐covered regions. By utilizing a new ensemble of 56 individual realizations of GIA signals based on perturbations of mantle viscosities and ice history, we find that many of those alternative GIA corrections change the direction of GRACE‐derived water storage trends, for example, from gaining mass into drying conditions, in particular in Eastern Canada. The change in the sign of the TWS trends subsequently impacts the conclusions drawn from using GRACE as observational basis for the evaluation of climate models as it influences the dis‐/agreement between observed and modelled wetting/drying trends. A modified GIA correction, a combined GRACE/GRACE‐FO data record extending over two decades, and a new generation of climate model experiments leads to substantially larger continental areas where wetting/drying trends currently observed by satellite missions coincide with long‐term predictions obtained from climate model experiments.

Probabilistic Assessment of Antarctic Thermomechanical Structure: Impacts on Ice Sheet Stability

AbstractUncertainty in present‐day glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) rates represents at least 44% of the total gravity‐based ice mass balance signal over Antarctica. Meanwhile, physical couplings between solid Earth, sea level and ice dynamics enhance the dependency of the spatiotemporally varying GIA signal on three‐dimensional variations in mantle rheology. Improved knowledge of thermomechanical mantle structure is therefore required to refine estimates of current and projected ice mass balance. Here, we present a Bayesian inverse method for self‐consistently mapping shear‐wave velocities from high‐resolution adjoint tomography into thermomechanical structure using calibrated parameterisations of anelasticity at seismic frequency. We constrain the model using regional geophysical data sets containing information on upper mantle temperature, attenuation and viscosity structure. Our treatment allows formal quantification of parameter covariances, and naturally permits propagation of material parameter uncertainties into thermomechanical structure estimates. We find that uncertainty in steady‐state viscosity structure at 150 km depth can be reduced by 4–5 orders of magnitude compared with a forward‐modeling approach neglecting covariance between viscoelastic parameters. By accounting for the dependence of apparent viscosity on loading timescale, we find good agreement between our estimates of mantle viscosity beneath West Antarctica, and those derived from satellite GPS. Direct access to temperature structure allows us to estimate lateral variations in lithosphere‐asthenosphere boundary (LAB) depth, geothermal heat flow (GHF), and associated uncertainties. We find evidence for shallow LAB depths (63 ± 13 km), and high GHF (76 ± 7 mW m−2) beneath West Antarctica that, combined with low asthenospheric viscosities, indicate a highly dynamic response to ice mass loss.

Relative sea level response to mixed carbonate-siliciclastic sediment loading along the Great Barrier Reef margin

The continental shelf along northeastern Australia is the world's largest mixed carbonate-siliciclastic passive margin and the location of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Following sea-level transgression during the last deglaciation, extensive sediment was deposited along the GBR due to neritic carbonate deposition (including shelf edge reefs, Holocene reefs and Halimeda bioherms) and fluvial discharge of terrigenous siliciclastic sediments. Such sediment loading can alter local relative sea level (RSL) by several metres through the sediment isostatic adjustment (SIA) process, a signal that is poorly constrained at the GBR. In this study, we used a glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model to develop an ensemble-based sediment loading history for the GBR since Marine Isotope Stage 2 (MIS 2). A Bayesian style framework is adopted to calibrate the sediment history ensemble and GIA model parameters using a sea-level database. According to our results, 1853.7 Gt (1613.1-2078.7 Gt, 95% confidence interval) of sediment have been deposited across the GBR since MIS 2 (28 ka BP), causing spatially variable relative sea-level change with the highest magnitude (0.9-1.1 m) found in the outer shelf of the southern central GBR (18.4-21.6∘ S). Because the SIA-induced RSL rise is unrelated to ice mass loss, failing to correct for this signal will lead to systematic overestimation of grounded ice volume by up to ∼4.3 × 105 km3 during the Last Glacial Maximum. Additionally, we found that spatial variation in sediment loading and coastal environment may explain the different RSL history documented by published fossil coral reef records from Noggin Pass and Hydrographer's Passage. These results highlight the importance of considering SIA for any postglacial sea-level studies adjacent to large sediment systems. Lastly, by quantifying both the GIA and SIA signals, we provide a spatially and temporally complete RSL reconstruction that is well-suited to be used as a boundary condition to study the evolution of the GBR shelf and slope sedimentary system.

Feasibility of a global inversion for spatially resolved glacial isostatic adjustment and ice sheet mass changes proven in simulation experiments

Estimating mass changes of ice sheets or of the global ocean from satellite gravimetry strongly depends on the correction for the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) signal. However, geophysical GIA models are different and incompatible with observations, particularly in Antarctica. Regional inversions have resolved GIA over Antarctica without ensuring global consistency, while global inversions have been mostly constrained by a priori GIA patterns. For the first time, we set up a global inversion to simultaneously estimate ice sheet mass changes and GIA, where Antarctic GIA is spatially resolved using a set of global GIA patterns. The patterns are related to deglaciation impulses localized along a grid over Antarctica. GIA associated with four regions outside Antarctica is parametrized by global GIA patterns induced by deglaciation histories. The observations we consider here are satellite gravimetry, satellite altimetry over Antarctica and Greenland, as well as modelled firn thickness changes. Firn thickness changes are also parametrized to account for systematic errors in their modelling. Results from simulation experiments using realistic signals and error covariances support the feasibility of the approach. For example, the spatial RMS error of the estimated Antarctic GIA effect, assuming a 10-year observation period, is 31% and 51%, of the RMS of two alternative global GIA models. The integrated Antarctic GIA error is 8% and 5%, respectively, of the integrated GIA signal of the two models. For these results realistic error covariances incorporated in the parameter estimation process are essential. If error correlations are neglected, the Antarctic GIA RMS error is more than twice as large.Highlightsbullet We present a globally consistent inversion approach to co-estimate glacial isostatic adjustment effects together with changes of the ice mass and firn air content in Greenland and Antarctica. bullet The inversion method utilizes data sets from satellite gravimetry, satellite altimetry, regional climate modelling, and firn modelling together with the full error-covariance information of all input data. bullet The simulation experiments show that the proposed GIA parametrization in Antarctica can resolve GIA effects unpredicted by geophysical modelling, despite realistic input-data limitations.

Separating GIA signal from surface mass change using GPS and GRACE data

SUMMARY The visco-elastic response of the solid Earth to the past glacial cycles and the present-day surface mass change (PDSMC) are detected by the geodetic observation systems such as global navigation satellite system and satellite gravimetry. Majority of the contemporary PDSMC is driven by climate change and in order to better understand them using the aforementioned geodetic observations, glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) signal should be accounted first. The default approach is to use forward GIA models that use uncertain ice-load history and approximate Earth rheology to predict GIA, yielding large uncertainties. The proliferation of contemporary, global, geodetic observations and their coverage have therefore enabled estimation of data-driven GIA solutions. A novel framework is presented that uses geophysical relations between the vertical land motion (VLM) and geopotential anomaly due to GIA and PDSMC to express GPS VLM trends and GRACE geopotential trends as a function of either GIA or PDSMC, which can be easily solved using least-squares regression. The GIA estimates are data-driven and differ significantly from forward models over Alaska and Greenland.

Glacial isostatic adjustment in the Red Sea: Impact of 3-D Earth structure

Sea-level history in the Red Sea region has commonly been interpreted as an accurate proxy for global mean sea level (GMSL), which can be used to constrain global ice volumes and inform a diverse range of regional paleoclimate studies. Previous modeling work has demonstrated, however, that glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) processes may introduce significant departures from GMSL in this region. The GIA signal is a complex combination of deformational, gravitational, and rotational effects arising from shifting ice and water surface loads and consists of long-wavelength effects superimposed by a short-wavelength signal associated with “continental levering” – a response to local meltwater loading. In this study, we revisit the effects of GIA in the Red Sea region using Earth models characterized by 3-D variations in mantle viscoelastic structure and lithospheric thickness, focusing on the period from Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to present day. We find that the presence of the Red Sea Rift and low-viscosity upper mantle acts to amplify sea-level rise associated with continental levering, yielding a more pronounced rise for sites toward the center of the Red Sea during deglaciation in comparison to GMSL. In contrast, coastal sites experience a net GIA-induced sea-level fall that acts in opposition to the GMSL rise. Furthermore, while the maximum departure from GMSL occurs close to LGM for northern sites, the GIA signal can peak as late as 14 ka for southern sites. Simulations based on 3-D Earth models tend to show a smaller departure from GMSL than 1-D predictions for most coastal sites, including at the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb at the mouth of the Red Sea, and typically peak at ∼10 m. The opposite is true for sites close to the rift: at these locations the difference between the 1-D and 3-D simulations can reach ∼20 m. We therefore conclude that any mapping from local sea level to GMSL is both location and time dependent and cannot be captured by a simple linear scaling.

Investigating the roles of relative sea-level change and glacio-isostatic adjustment on the retreat of a marine based ice stream in NW Scotland

The record of ice-sheet demise since the last glacial maximum (LGM) provides an opportunity to test the relative importance of instability mechanisms, including relative sea-level (RSL) change, controlling ice-sheet retreat. Here we examine the record of RSL changes accompanying the retreat of the Minch Ice Stream (MnIS) of northwest Scotland during the deglaciation following the LGM as well as use the record to provide additional age constraints on a local late-glacial readvance known as the Wester Ross Readvance. We use new and existing records of RSL change obtained from isolation basins in Wester Ross along the flanks of the former MnIS to test available glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) predictions of the deglacial RSL history for the region. Using these GIA model predictions we examine the nature of RSL change across the retreating front of the MnIS through the early deglaciation. Our new radiocarbon ages from these basins confirm the timing of deglaciation within the inner trough of the former MnIS as well as refines the age of the Wester Ross Readvance, both established by earlier cosmogenic-based studies. We find that the Wester Ross Readvance culminated around 15.8 ± 0.1 ka, slightly earlier than recent suggestions. Near Gairloch, Wester Ross, RSL fell from a marine limit ∼20 m above present at ∼16.1–16.5 ka. Three isolation basins record RSL fall over the following ∼0.8 ka allowing a comparison between GIA predictions and RSL observations. Our new analyses suggest that the rate of RSL rise increased at the ice front, in concert with the MnIS encountering a landward sloping bed potentially aiding the rapid retreat of the MnIS from 17.6 to 16.4 ka BP. This observation suggests that GIA during deglaciation does not necessarily induce a stabilizing RSL change to marine-based ice streams as some models have suggested. Along indented ice margins, the RSL field at the front of individual ice streams may be governed by the regional GIA signal driven by the ice sheet as a whole, rather than the local ice front. In addition, the stabilizing impact of post-glacial rebound is dependent on an Earth rheology weak enough to respond quickly to the ice-sheet retreat. In the case of the MnIS, the RSL experienced at the front of the ice stream was likely governed by the earlier ice mass extent, the larger ice masses lying to the east and south of the highly indented ice front, and the relatively strong Earth rheology beneath the British Isles. Thus, the geometry of the ice sheet margins, such as those in Greenland and Antarctica today, and the Earth rheology beneath them need to be taken into account when considering the stabilizing impact of post-glacial rebound on marine ice sheet retreat.

Geodetic observations for constraining mantle processes in Antarctica

Abstract Geodynamic processes in Antarctica such as glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and post-seismic deformation are measured by geodetic observations such as global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) and satellite gravimetry. GNSS measurements have comprised both continuous measurements and episodic measurements since the mid-1990s. The estimated velocities typically reach an accuracy of 1 mm a −1 for horizontal velocities and 2 mm a −1 for vertical velocities. However, the elastic deformation due to present-day ice-load change needs to be considered accordingly. Space gravimetry derives mass changes from small variations in the inter-satellite distance of a pair of satellites, starting with the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite mission in 2002 and continuing with the GRACE-FO (GRACE Follow-On) mission launched in 2018. The spatial resolution of the measurements is low (about 300 km) but the measurement error is homogeneous across Antarctica. The estimated trends contain signals from ice-mass change, and local and global GIA signals. To combine the strengths of the individual datasets, statistical combinations of GNSS, GRACE and satellite altimetry data have been developed. These combinations rely on realistic error estimates and assumptions of snow density. Nevertheless, they capture signals that are missing from geodynamic forward models such as the large uplift in the Amundsen Sea sector caused by a low-viscous response to century-scale ice-mass changes.

Accounting for GIA signal in GRACE products

SUMMARY The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) observes gravitational potential anomalies that include the effects of present-day surface mass change (PDSMC)- and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA)-driven solid Earth mass redistribution. Therefore, GIA estimates from a forward model are commonly removed from GRACE to estimate PDSMC. There are several GIA models and to facilitate users in using a GIA model of their choice, both GRACE and GIA products are made available in terms of global gridded fields representing mass anomaly. GRACE-observed gravitational potential anomalies are represented in terms of equivalent water height (EWH) with a relation that accounts for an elastic solid Earth deformation due to PDSMC. However, for obtaining GIA EWH fields from GIA gravitational potential fields, two relations are being used: one that is similar to that being used for GRACE EWH and the other that does not include an elastic deformation effect. This leaves users with the possibility of obtaining different values for PDSMC with a given GRACE and GIA field. In this paper, we discuss the impact of this problem on regional mass change estimates and highlight the need for consistent treatment of GIA signals in GRACE observations.

Modelling sea-level fingerprints of glaciated regions with low mantle viscosity

Abstract. Global patterns of sea-level change – often termed “sea-level fingerprints” – associated with future changes in ice/water mass re-distribution are a key component in generating regional sea-level projections. Calculation of these fingerprints is commonly based on the assumption that the isostatic response of the Earth is dominantly elastic on century timescales. While this assumption is accurate for regions underlain by mantle material with viscosity close to that of global average estimates, recent work focusing on the West Antarctic region has shown that this assumption can lead to significant error where the viscosity is significantly lower than typical global average values. Here, we test this assumption for fingerprints associated with glaciers and ice caps. We compare output from a (1D) elastic Earth model to that of a 3D viscoelastic model that includes low-viscosity mantle in three glaciated regions: Alaska, southwestern Canada, and the southern Andes (Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI) regions 1, 2, and 17, respectively). This comparison indicates that the error incurred by ignoring the non-elastic response is of the order of 1 mm in most areas (or about 1 % of the barystatic signal) over the 21st century with values reaching the centimetre level in glaciated regions. However, in glaciated regions underlain by low-viscosity mantle, the non-elastic deformation can result in relative sea-level changes with magnitudes of up to several tens of centimetres (or several times the barystatic value). The magnitude and spatial pattern of this non-elastic signal is sensitive to variations in both the projected ice history and regional viscosity structure, indicating the need for loading models with high spatial resolution and improved constraints on regional Earth viscosity structure to accurately simulate sea-level fingerprints in these regions. The anomalously low mantle viscosity in these regions also amplifies the glacial isostatic adjustment signal associated with glacier changes during the 20th century, causing it to be an important (and even dominant) contributor to the modelled relative sea-level changes over the 21st century.

Constraint of glacial isostatic adjustment in the North Sea with geological relative sea level and GNSS vertical land motion data

SUMMARYIn this study, we focus on improved constraint of the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) signal at present-day, and its role as a contributor to present-day sea level budgets. The main study area extends from the coastal regions of northwestern Europe to northern Europe. Both Holocene relative sea level (RSL) data as well as vertical land motion (VLM) data are incorporated as constraints in a semi-empirical GIA model. 71 geological rates of GIA-driven RSL change are inferred from Holocene proxy data and 108 rates of vertical land motion from GNSS provide an additional measure of regional GIA deformation. Within the study area, the geological RSL data complement the spatial gaps of the VLM data and vice versa. Both data sets are inverted in a semi-empirical GIA model to yield updated estimates of regional present-day GIA deformations. A regional validation using tide gauges is presented for the North Sea, where the GIA signal may be complicated by lateral variations in Earth structure and existing predictions of regional and global GIA models show discrepancies. The model validation in the North Sea region suggests that geological data are needed to fit independent estimates of GIA-related RSL change inferred from tide gauge rates, indicating that geological rates from Holocene data do provide an important additional constraint for data-driven approaches to GIA estimation.

GNSS Observations of GIA‐Induced Crustal Deformation in Lützow‐Holm Bay, East Antarctica

AbstractThe Japanese Antarctic Research Expeditions have conducted long‐term Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations at a series of bedrock outcrops along the coast of Lützow‐Holm Bay, East Antarctica, to elucidate the solid Earth response to ice mass changes. These GNSS observations capture both the viscoelastic response of the solid Earth to Antarctic Ice Sheet changes since the Last Glacial Maximum, termed glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), and elastic deformation associated with recent surface mass changes due to snowfall variations. Here, we extract the GIA signals from the Lützow‐Holm Bay GNSS data by applying an elastic deformation correction based on the mass fluctuations observed in the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and the satellite altimetry. Our results indicate that the region is currently experiencing approximately 1 mm/yr of subsidence, which is large enough to influence GIA model estimations. The resultant GIA‐induced deformation response in Lützow‐Holm Bay is 1–6 mm/yr of uplift.

Uncertainty Estimation in Regional Models of Long‐Term GIA Uplift and Sea Level Change: An Overview

AbstractThis work provides a comparison of four approaches that can be used to describe uncertainty in models of the long‐term glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) process. The four methods range from pessimistic to optimistic representations of GIA uncertainty. Each estimation method is applied to selected one dimensional GIA model predictions and compared with vertical land motion data from Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements across Fennoscandia and North America. The methods are evaluated relative to two main properties: (1) their expected ability to separate non‐GIA from GIA signals and (2) their estimated statistical appropriateness given a specific GIA model and data set. For the first point, non‐GIA signals are considered isolated from the long‐term (millennial time scale) GIA signal at sites where measurement and model uncertainties do not overlap. Across methods, the frequency and accuracy with which non‐GIA signals are separated from GIA signals in GPS data display both consistent similarities and disparities. For the second point, we compare model predictions with rates of vertical land motion and relative sea level change that have been cleaned of non‐GIA signals to determine the most appropriate value of model uncertainty and relate the findings to the four approaches. Best fit inferences suggest that within deglaciation centers, GIA model uncertainty is up to ~2 mm/yr (vertical land motion). Likewise, away from the former ice sheet centers, GIA uncertainty for relative sea level change is inferred to be ~0.3–0.5 mm/yr along the U.S. East Coast and ~0.6–0.8 mm/yr in the North Sea.

Bayesian surface reconstruction of geodetic uplift rates: Mapping the global fingerprint of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment

We use a global compilation of geodetic (GPS) rates to reconstruct vertical land motion (VLM) using a Bayesian inference method. Trends of VLM are derived from almost 15,000 GPS position time-series retrieved from the Nevada Geodetic Laboratory. Our Transdimensional Regression (TR) method is based on Voronoi tessellation and self-adapts to the level of spatial structure contained in the database. It is thus suitable for our strongly heterogeneous dataset, both in terms of the geographical distribution and level of uncertainties, and provides at each location a probability density function for the rate of VLM. We apply the TR method to a set of globally distributed regions. At high latitudes the signal is dominated by Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA); fast uplift rates are observed across the previously ice-covered areas, while subsidence characterizes the surrounding peripheral forebulges. Other long-wavelengths processes, like dynamic topography, occasionally overprint and out-pace the GIA signal. Short-wavelength processes can be disentangled; remarkable examples are the sharp boundary between the uplifting Himalaya and subsiding foreland Ganges plain, the fast subsiding Central Valley of California, or the subsiding Galveston area (Texas) and Mississippi delta. In an attempt to visualize the global signature of GIA, we assembled the regional maps and filtered out the short-wavelength components. Comparison to independent models (dynamic model predictions of GIA) or data (relative sea level change along coastlines) reveals that our map of VLM is robust and dominated by GIA. Conversely, in regions where TR predictions are robust, departure between the two classes of models (dynamic predictions and TR) either reveals that other processes than GIA may locally contribute to the signal, or to incorrect model predictions. For example, on the edges of formerly ice-covered regions, TR predicts larger negative gradients of uplift rates than dynamical models, most probably due to the poor knowledge of the effective rheological structure of the Earth that alters the predictions of dynamic GIA models.

A new global GPS data set for testing and improving modelled GIA uplift rates

Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is the response of the solid Earth to past ice loading, primarily, since the Last Glacial Maximum, about 20 K yr BP. Modelling GIA is challenging because of large uncertainties in ice loading history and also the viscosity of the upper and lower mantle. GPS data contain the signature of GIA in their uplift rates but these also contain other sources of vertical land motion (VLM) such as tectonics, human and natural influences on water storage that can mask the underlying GIA signal. In this study, we use about 4000 GPS vertical velocities as observational estimates of global GIA uplift rates, after correcting for major elastic deformation effects. A novel fully automatic strategy is developed to postprocess the GPS time-series and to correct for non-GIA artefacts. Before estimating vertical velocities and uncertainties, we detect outliers and jumps and correct for atmospheric mass loading displacements. We correct the resulting velocities for the elastic response of the solid Earth to global changes in ice sheets, glaciers and ocean loading, as well as for changes in the Earth’s rotational pole relative to the 20th century average. We then apply a spatial median filter to remove sites where local effects are dominant to leave approximately 4000 GPS sites. The resulting novel global GPS data set shows a clean GIA signal at all post-processed stations and is therefore suitable to investigate the behavior of global GIA forward models. The results are transformed from a frame with its origin in the centre of mass of the total Earth’s system (CM) into a frame with its origin in the centre of mass of the solid Earth (CE) before comparison with 13 global GIA forward model solutions, with best fits with Pur-6- VM5 and ICE-6G predictions. The largest discrepancies for all models were identified for Antarctica and Greenland, which may be due to either uncertain mantle rheology, ice loading history/magnitude and/or GPS errors.

The glacial isostatic adjustment signal at present day in northern Europe and the British Isles estimated from geodetic observations and geophysical models

Abstract. The glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) signal at present day is constrained via the joint inversion of geodetic observations and GIA models for a region encompassing northern Europe, the British Isles, and the Barents Sea. The constraining data are Global Positioning System (GPS) vertical crustal velocities and GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) gravity data. When the data are inverted with a set of GIA models, the best-fit model for the vertical motion signal has a χ2 value of approximately 1 and a maximum a posteriori uncertainty of 0.3–0.4 mm yr−1. An elastic correction is applied to the vertical land motion rates that accounts for present-day changes to terrestrial hydrology as well as recent mass changes of ice sheets and glaciered regions. Throughout the study area, mass losses from Greenland dominate the elastic vertical signal and combine to give an elastic correction of up to +0.5 mm yr−1 in central Scandinavia. Neglecting to use an elastic correction may thus introduce a small but persistent bias in model predictions of GIA vertical motion even in central Scandinavia where vertical motion is dominated by GIA due to past glaciations. The predicted gravity signal is generally less well-constrained than the vertical signal, in part due to uncertainties associated with the correction for contemporary ice mass loss in Svalbard and the Russian Arctic. The GRACE-derived gravity trend is corrected for present-day ice mass loss using estimates derived from the ICESat and CryoSat missions, although a difference in magnitude between GRACE-inferred and altimetry-inferred regional mass loss rates suggests the possibility of a non-negligible GIA response here either from millennial-scale or Little Ice Age GIA.

A data-driven model for constraint of present-day glacial isostatic adjustment in North America

Geodetic measurements of vertical land motion and gravity change are incorporated into an a priori model of present-day glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in North America via least-squares adjustment. The result is an updated GIA model wherein the final predicted signal is informed by both observational data, and prior knowledge (or intuition) of GIA inferred from models. The data-driven method allows calculation of the uncertainties of predicted GIA fields, and thus offers a significant advantage over predictions from purely forward GIA models. In order to assess the influence each dataset has on the final GIA prediction, the vertical land motion and GRACE-measured gravity data are incorporated into the model first independently (i.e., one dataset only), then simultaneously. The relative weighting of the datasets and the prior input is iteratively determined by variance component estimation in order to achieve the most statistically appropriate fit to the data. The best-fit model is obtained when both datasets are inverted and gives respective RMS misfits to the GPS and GRACE data of 1.3 mm/yr and 0.8 mm/yr equivalent water layer change. Non-GIA signals (e.g., hydrology) are removed from the datasets prior to inversion. The post-fit residuals between the model predictions and the vertical motion and gravity datasets, however, suggest particular regions where significant non-GIA signals may still be present in the data, including unmodeled hydrological changes in the central Prairies west of Lake Winnipeg. Outside of these regions of misfit, the posterior uncertainty of the predicted model provides a measure of the formal uncertainty associated with the GIA process; results indicate that this quantity is sensitive to the uncertainty and spatial distribution of the input data as well as that of the prior model information. In the study area, the predicted uncertainty of the present-day GIA signal ranges from ∼0.2–1.2 mm/yr for rates of vertical land motion, and from ∼3–4 mm/yr of equivalent water layer change for gravity variations.

Predicted bounds on peak global mean sea level during marine isotope stages 5a and 5c

Estimates of marine isotope stage (MIS) 5c and 5a global mean sea level (GMSL) based on marine terraces and coastal indicators range from 15–37 m and 9–30 m below present, respectively. Tectonic displacement and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) complicate efforts to refine this range. We revisit this issue using numerical predictions of post-glacial sea-level change and updated estimates of site-specific tectonic signals based upon these predictions. Laurentide and Cordilleran peripheral bulge dynamics and variations in the gravitational effect of these ice masses dominate the GIA signal along the east and west coasts of North America. Published compilations suggest that MIS 5 sea-level indicators extending from Virginia to the Caribbean lie on the outer flank of the peripheral bulge, while those along a transect from Oregon to Baja California sit on the inner flank of the bulge. Our GIA modeling reconciles these data by adopting a significantly weaker (i.e., lower viscosity) upper mantle in analyzing data on the Pacific coast relative to the Atlantic, an inference supported by seismic tomography. We present a sensitivity analysis that compares the observed elevation of globally distributed high stand markers to a suite of GIA simulations that vary the Earth model and GMSL from the Last Interglaciation (MIS 5e, ∼130-115 ka) to 70 ka. We conclude that GMSL peaked at −8.5 ± 4.6 m (1σ) during MIS 5a and −9.4 ± 5.3 m during MIS 5c. A more restrictive analysis yields slightly wider bounds corresponding to −10.5 ± 5.5 m and −11.1 ± 6.6 m, respectively.

Using GPS and absolute gravity observations to separate the effects of present-day and Pleistocene ice-mass changes in South East Greenland

Measurements of vertical crustal uplift from bedrock sites around the edge of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) can be used to constrain present day mass loss. Interpreting any observed crustal displacement around the GrIS in terms of present day changes in ice is complicated, however, by the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) signal. With GPS observations alone, it is impossible to separate the uplift driven by present day mass changes from that due to ice mass changes in the past. Wahr et al. (1995) demonstrated that viscoelastic surface displacements were related to the viscoelastic gravity changes through a proportionality constant that is nearly independent of the choice of Earth viscosity or ice history model. Thus, by making measurements of both gravity and surface motion at a bedrock site, the viscoelastic effects could be removed from the observations and we would be able to constrain present day ice mass changes. Alternatively, we could use the same observations of surface displacements and gravity to determine the GIA signal. In this paper, we extend the theory of Wahr et al. (1995) by introducing a constant, Z, that represents the ratio between the elastic changes in gravity and elastic uplift at a particular site due to present day mass changes. Further, we combine 20 yrs of GPS observations of uplift with eight absolute gravity observations over the same period to determine the GIA signal near Kulusuk, a site on the southeastern side of the GrIS, to experimentally demonstrate the theory. We estimate that the GIA signal in the region is 4.49±1.44mm/yr and is inconsistent with most previously reported model predictions that demonstrate that the GIA signal here is negative. However, as there is very little in situ data to constrain the GIA rate in this part of Greenland, the Earth model or the ice history reconstructions could be inaccurate (Khan et al., 2016). Improving the estimate of GIA in this region of Greenland will allow us to better determine the present day changes in ice mass in the region, e.g. from GRACE.

Reconstruction of North American drainage basins and river discharge since the Last Glacial Maximum

Abstract. Over the last glacial cycle, ice sheets and the resultant glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) rearranged river systems. As these riverine threads that tied the ice sheets to the sea were stretched, severed, and restructured, they also shrank and swelled with the pulse of meltwater inputs and time-varying drainage basin areas, and sometimes delivered enough meltwater to the oceans in the right places to influence global climate. Here I present a general method to compute past river flow paths, drainage basin geometries, and river discharges, by combining models of past ice sheets, glacial isostatic adjustment, and climate. The result is a time series of synthetic paleohydrographs and drainage basin maps from the Last Glacial Maximum to present for nine major drainage basins – the Mississippi, Rio Grande, Colorado, Columbia, Mackenzie, Hudson Bay, Saint Lawrence, Hudson, and Susquehanna/Chesapeake Bay. These are based on five published reconstructions of the North American ice sheets. I compare these maps with drainage reconstructions and discharge histories based on a review of observational evidence, including river deposits and terraces, isotopic records, mineral provenance markers, glacial moraine histories, and evidence of ice stream and tunnel valley flow directions. The sharp boundaries of the reconstructed past drainage basins complement the flexurally smoothed GIA signal that is more often used to validate ice-sheet reconstructions, and provide a complementary framework to reduce nonuniqueness in model reconstructions of the North American ice-sheet complex.