Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Predictions Research Articles

Globally consistent estimates of high-resolution Antarctic ice mass balance and spatially resolved glacial isostatic adjustment

Abstract. A detailed understanding of how the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) responds to a warming climate is needed because it will most likely increase the rate of global mean sea level rise. Time-variable satellite gravimetry, realized by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO) missions, is directly sensitive to AIS mass changes. However, gravimetric mass balances are subject to two major limitations. First, the usual correction of the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) effect by modelling results is a dominant source of uncertainty. Second, satellite gravimetry allows for a resolution of a few hundred kilometres only, which is insufficient to thoroughly explore causes of AIS imbalance. We have overcome both limitations by the first global inversion of data from GRACE and GRACE-FO, satellite altimetry (CryoSat-2), regional climate modelling (RACMO2), and firn densification modelling (IMAU-FDM). The inversion spatially resolves GIA in Antarctica independently from GIA modelling jointly with changes of ice mass and firn air content at 50 km resolution. We find an AIS mass balance of −144 ± 27 Gt a−1 from January 2011 to December 2020. This estimate is the same, within uncertainties, as the statistical analysis of 23 different mass balances evaluated in the Ice sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE; Otosaka et al., 2023b). The co-estimated GIA corresponds to an integrated mass effect of 86 ± 21 Gt a−1 over Antarctica, and it fits better with global navigation satellite system (GNSS) results than other GIA predictions. From propagating covariances to integrals, we find a correlation coefficient of −0.97 between the AIS mass balance and the GIA estimate. Sensitivity tests with alternative input data sets lead to results within assessed uncertainties.

Three-dimensional glacial isostatic adjustment modeling reconciles conflicting geographic trends in North American marine isotope stage 5a relative sea level observations

Abstract Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) simulations using earth models that vary viscoelastic structure with depth alone cannot simultaneously fit geographic trends in the elevation of marine isotope stage (MIS) 5a relative sea level (RSL) indicators across continental North America and the Caribbean and yield conflicting estimates of global mean sea level (GMSL). We present simulations with a GIA model that incorporates three-dimensional (3-D) variation in North American viscoelastic earth structure constructed by combining high-resolution seismic tomographic imaging with a new method for mapping this imaging into lateral variations in lithospheric thickness and mantle viscosity. We pair this earth model with a global ice history based on updated constraints on ice volume and geometry. The GIA prediction provides the first simultaneous reconciliation of MIS 5a North American and Caribbean RSL highstands and strengthens arguments that MIS 5a peak GMSL reached values close to that of the Last Interglacial. This result highlights the necessity of incorporating realistic 3-D earth structure into GIA predictions with continent-scale RSL data sets.

A re-evaluation of Holocene relative sea-level change along the Fujian coast, southeastern China

The southeastern China coast is a region of special interest in the study of past and present relative sea-level change, given its distal location from giant ice sheets (far-field regions). During the past decades, a large number of biological, geological, and archaeological sea-level indicators have been retrieved from the Fujian coastal region which allows for recalibration and recalculation of sea-level index points (SLIPs). This study constructs a database of Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) observations for the Fujian coast, southeastern China. The database contains 59 quality-controlled SLIPs which show that RSL for the Fujian coast did not exceed present (0 m) during the Holocene, except potentially during 7.5–5.5 cal. kyr BP and 1.8–0.7 cal. kyr BP. Rates of RSL change were highest during the early Holocene and have decreased over time, due to the diminishing response of the Earth's mantle to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and reduction of meltwater input. A series of sea-level oscillations were recorded in our SLIPs-based reconstructions which might correspond to global climate warming or cooling events. We assessed the spatial variability of RSL histories and compared these with the ICE-6G_C and ANU-ICE GIA model predictions. Substantial misfits between GIA predictions and regional RSL reconstructions were recognized: (1) the deceleration of the early-Holocene sea-level rise ended about one millennia earlier in the ICE-6G_C model than in the SLIPs-based reconstructions; (2) GIA model predictions show a mid-Holocene sea-level highstand of 1–3 m which is absent from our SLIPs-based reconstructions; and (3) all GIA model predicted a gradual RSL fall to 0 m since the middle Holocene, while our reconstruction displays significant RSL oscillations. It is presently unknown whether these misfits are caused by uncertainties in regional tectonic movement estimation or parameters used in the GIA models. Future applications of spatiotemporal statistical techniques are required to better quantify the gradient of the isostatic contribution and to provide improved context for the assessment of the ongoing acceleration of sea-level rise.

A GNSS velocity field for crustal deformation studies: The influence of glacial isostatic adjustment on plate motion models

SUMMARYThe two main causes of global-scale secular deformation of the Earth are tectonic plate motion and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). We create a bespoke global 3D GNSS surface velocity field ‘NCL20’ to investigate tectonic plate motion and the effect of GIA on plate motion models (PMMs), drawing on a set of 1D and 3D GIA model predictions. The main motivation for creating NCL20 is to include a larger number of GNSS sites in the most GIA-affected areas of investigation, namely North America, Europe, and Antarctica. We do this using the IGS repro2 data and other similarly processed GNSS data sets. Our final GNSS velocity field has horizontal uncertainties mostly within ±0.5 mm yr–1 and vertical uncertainties mostly within ±1 mm yr–1 (at 95 per cent confidence), which make it suitable for testing GIA models. We generate a suite of 117 global GIA model predictions by combining three different ice history models (ICE-5G, ICE-6G and W12) with a range of 1D and 3D Earth models. By subtracting this ensemble from the GNSS velocity field, we identify and compare a range of PMMs which are expected to be unaffected by GIA. Our method allows us to include GNSS sites that are typically excluded from PMM estimations due to their location in GIA-affected regions. We demonstrate that significant GIA-related horizontal motion outside of the rapidly uplifting regions may bias PMMs if left uncorrected. Based on their ability to explain the observed surface velocity field, a group of best-performing GIA models is selected for three regions of interest: North America, Europe and Antarctica. The range of GIA predictions in each best-performing group is assumed to represent the uncertainty in regional GIA modelling insofar as it can be constrained by present-day geodetic velocities. In the horizontal component, we note that 3D GIA models show more variation in the direction of predicted velocities than 1D GIA models, confirming that horizontal velocities are strongly sensitive to lateral variations in Earth structure. Furthermore, for Antarctica the variation in predicted GIA vertical velocities suggests that the total GIA contribution to annual gravimetric mass change ranges from –3 to 22 Gt yr–1 depending on which of the best-performing GIA models is used.

Investigating the roles of relative sea-level change and glacio-isostatic adjustment on the retreat of a marine based ice stream in NW Scotland

The record of ice-sheet demise since the last glacial maximum (LGM) provides an opportunity to test the relative importance of instability mechanisms, including relative sea-level (RSL) change, controlling ice-sheet retreat. Here we examine the record of RSL changes accompanying the retreat of the Minch Ice Stream (MnIS) of northwest Scotland during the deglaciation following the LGM as well as use the record to provide additional age constraints on a local late-glacial readvance known as the Wester Ross Readvance. We use new and existing records of RSL change obtained from isolation basins in Wester Ross along the flanks of the former MnIS to test available glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) predictions of the deglacial RSL history for the region. Using these GIA model predictions we examine the nature of RSL change across the retreating front of the MnIS through the early deglaciation. Our new radiocarbon ages from these basins confirm the timing of deglaciation within the inner trough of the former MnIS as well as refines the age of the Wester Ross Readvance, both established by earlier cosmogenic-based studies. We find that the Wester Ross Readvance culminated around 15.8 ± 0.1 ka, slightly earlier than recent suggestions. Near Gairloch, Wester Ross, RSL fell from a marine limit ∼20 m above present at ∼16.1–16.5 ka. Three isolation basins record RSL fall over the following ∼0.8 ka allowing a comparison between GIA predictions and RSL observations. Our new analyses suggest that the rate of RSL rise increased at the ice front, in concert with the MnIS encountering a landward sloping bed potentially aiding the rapid retreat of the MnIS from 17.6 to 16.4 ka BP. This observation suggests that GIA during deglaciation does not necessarily induce a stabilizing RSL change to marine-based ice streams as some models have suggested. Along indented ice margins, the RSL field at the front of individual ice streams may be governed by the regional GIA signal driven by the ice sheet as a whole, rather than the local ice front. In addition, the stabilizing impact of post-glacial rebound is dependent on an Earth rheology weak enough to respond quickly to the ice-sheet retreat. In the case of the MnIS, the RSL experienced at the front of the ice stream was likely governed by the earlier ice mass extent, the larger ice masses lying to the east and south of the highly indented ice front, and the relatively strong Earth rheology beneath the British Isles. Thus, the geometry of the ice sheet margins, such as those in Greenland and Antarctica today, and the Earth rheology beneath them need to be taken into account when considering the stabilizing impact of post-glacial rebound on marine ice sheet retreat.

A Holocene relative sea-level database for the Baltic Sea

We present a compilation and analysis of 1099 Holocene relative shore-level (RSL) indicators located around the Baltic Sea including 867 relative sea-level data points and 232 data points from the Ancylus Lake and the following transitional phase. The spatial distribution covers the Baltic Sea and near-coastal areas fairly well, but some gaps remain mainly in Sweden. RSL data follow the standardized HOLSEA format and, thus, are ready for spatially comprehensive applications in, e.g., glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) modelling. We apply a SQL database system to store the nationally provided data sets in their individual form and to map the different input into the HOLSEA format as the information content of the individual data sets from the Baltic Sea area differs. About 80% of the RSL data is related to the last marine stage in Baltic Sea history after 8.5 ka BP (thousand years before present). These samples are grouped according to their dominant RSL tendencies into three clusters: regions with negative, positive and complex (transitional) RSL tendencies. Overall, regions with isostatic uplift driven negative tendencies dominate and show regression in the Baltic Sea basin during the last marine stage. Shifts from positive to negative tendencies in RSL data from transitional regions show a mid-Holocene highstand around 7.5–6.5 ka BP which is consistent with the end of the final melting of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Comparisons of RSL data with GIA predictions including global ICE-5G and ICE-6G_C ice histories show good fit with RSL data from the regions with negative tendencies, whereas in the transitional areas in the eastern Baltic, predictions for the mid-Holocene clearly overestimate the RSL and fail to recover the mid-Holocene RSL highstand derived from the proxy reconstructions. These results motivate improvements of ice-sheet and Earth-structure models and show the potential and benefits of the new compilation for future studies.

Evaluation of the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models for Antarctica based on GPS vertical velocities

Due to the scarcity of data, modeling the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) for Antarctica is more difficult than it is for the ancient ice sheet area in North America and Northern Europe. Large uncertainties are observed in existing GIA models for Antarctica. Modern space-based geodetic measurements provide checks and constraints for GIA models. The present-day uplift velocities of global positioning system (GPS) stations at 73 stations in Antarctica and adjacent regions from 1996 to 2014 have been estimated using GAMIT/GLOBK version 10.5 with a colored noise model. To easily analyze the effect of difference sources on the vertical velocities, and for easy comparison with both GIA model predictions and GPS results from Argus et al. (2014) and Thomas et al. (2011), seven sub-regions are divided. They are the northern Antarctic Peninsula, the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, the Amundsen Sea coast, the Ross Ice Shelf, Mount Erebus, inland Southwest Antarctica and the East Antarctic coast, respectively. The results show that the fast uplift in the north Antarctic Peninsula and Pine Island Bay regions may be caused by the elastic response to snow and ice mass loss. The fast subsidence near Mount Erebus may be related to the activity of a magma body. The uplift or subsidence near the East Antarctic coast is very slow while the uplift for the rest regions is mainly caused by GIA. By analyzing the correlation and the associated weighted root mean square (WRMS) between the GIA predictions and the GPS velocities, we found that the ICE-6G_C (VM5a) model and the Geruo13 model show the most consistency with our GPS results, while the W12a and IJ05_R2 series models show poor consistency with our GPS results. Although improved greatly in recent years, the GIA modeling in Antarctica still lags behind the modeling of the North American. Some GPS stations, for example the Bennett Nunatak station (BENN), have observed large discrepancies between GIA predictions and GPS velocities. Because of the large uncertainties in calculating elastic responses due to the significant variations of ice and snow loads, the GPS velocities still cannot be used as a precise constraint on GIA models.

Holocene reef growth in the tropical southwestern Atlantic: Evidence for sea level and climate instability

The Holocene epoch offers a potential analogue for understanding future sea-level variability as both SST's and Global Mean Sea Levels (GMSL) were at times higher than observed today. However, GMSL can differ significantly from Relative Sea Level (RSL), even at far-field sites remote from margins of former ice sheets. Much of this spatial variability has been shown to be consistent with the predictions of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models. Whilst it is generally accepted that RSL at far-field sites reached its maximum during the mid-Holocene, there have been many interpretations of sea level fall following the highstand from ∼6 ka. Here, we present a RSL history from several tectonically stable, far-field sites in eastern Brazil, derived from 17 microatoll and 45 fossil reef flat ages. Our results show evidence for two periods of RSL instability during the Holocene which differ from GIA predictions, including a hiatus in reef growth ∼3.7–2.5 ka. These results are broadly synchronous with several other locations in the Southern Hemisphere suggesting global rather than regional climatic forcing mechanisms are responsible. Variations in SST and southern hemisphere ice sheet dynamics are proposed as possible controlling mechanisms for the observed RSL oscillations beginning at ∼3.7 ka and 2 ka respectively. We suggest that these global processes combined with increased precipitation (and higher sediment flux) from several regional climatic forces created inhospitable conditions for reef growth, contributing to the observed hiatus and reduced reef flat accretion during the late Holocene (∼2 ka to present).

A benchmark study of numerical implementations of the sea level equation in GIA modelling

The ocean load in glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) modelling is represented by the so-called sea level equation (SLE). The SLE describes the mass redistribution of water between ice sheets and oceans on a deforming Earth. Despite various teams independently investigating GIA, there has been no systematic intercomparison among the numerical solvers of the SLE through which the methods may be validated. The goal of this paper is to present a series of synthetic examples designed for testing and comparing the numerical implementations of the SLE in GIA modelling. The 10 numerical codes tested combine various temporal and spatial parametrizations. The time-domain or Laplace-domain discretizations are used to solve the SLE through time, while spherical harmonics, finite differences or finite elements parametrize the GIA-related field variables spatially. The surface ice-water load and solid Earth's topography are represented spatially either on an equiangular grid, a Gauss-Legendre or an equiarea grid with icosahedron-shaped spherical pixels. Comparisons aremade in a series of five benchmark examples with an increasing degree of complexity. Due to the complexity of the SLE, there is no analytical solution to it. The accuracy of the numerical implementations is therefore assessed by the differences of the individual solutions with respect to a reference solution. While the benchmark study does not result in GIA predictions for a realistic loading scenario, we establish a set of agreed-upon results that can be extended in the future by including more complex case studies, such as solutions with realistic loading scenarios, the rotational feedback in the linear-momentum equation, and by considering a 3-D viscosity structure of the Earth's mantle. The test computations performed so far show very good agreement between the individual results and their ability to capture the main features of sea-surface variation and the surface vertical displacement. The differences found can often be attributed to the different approximations inherent in the various algorithms. This shows the accuracy that can be expected from different implementations of the SLE, which helps to assess differences noted in the literature between predictions for realistic loading cases.

The impact of water loading on postglacial decay times in Hudson Bay

Ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) due to surface loading (ice and water) variations during the last glacial cycle has been contributing to sea-level changes globally throughout the Holocene, especially in regions like Canada that were heavily glaciated during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The spatial and temporal distribution of GIA, as manifested in relative sea-level (RSL) change, are sensitive to the ice history and the rheological structure of the solid Earth, both of which are uncertain. It has been shown that RSL curves near the center of previously glaciated regions with no ongoing surface loading follow an exponential-like form, with the postglacial decay times associated with that form having a weak sensitivity to the details of the ice loading history. Postglacial decay time estimates thus provide a powerful datum for constraining the Earth's viscous structure and improving GIA predictions. We explore spatial patterns of postglacial decay time predictions in Hudson Bay by decomposing numerically modeled RSL changes into contributions from water and ice loading effects, and computing their relative impact on the decay times. We demonstrate that ice loading can contribute a strong geographic trend on the decay time estimates if the time window used to compute decay times includes periods that are temporally close to (i.e. contemporaneous with, or soon after) periods of active loading. This variability can be avoided by choosing a suitable starting point for the decay time window. However, more surprisingly, we show that across any adopted time window, water loading effects associated with inundation into, and postglacial flux out of, Hudson Bay and James Bay will impart significant geographic variability onto decay time estimates. We emphasize this issue by considering both maps of predicted decay times across the region and site-specific estimates, and we conclude that variability in observed decay times (whether based on existing or future data sets) may reflect this water loading signal.

Relative sea-level changes during the Holocene in the Río de la Plata, Argentina and Uruguay: A review

This study critically reviews the relative sea-level (RSL) data from the Río de la Plata (RDP) (Argentina and Uruguay) in order to analyze the Holocene RSL changes in this region and thus capture the general trend illustrated by both the data and the high-degree polynomial regression analyses which show good agreement with the ICE-6G_C (VM6) model. The previously inferred Holocene sea-level histories reconstructed from palynological and diatom records from the northern and the southern RDP are also compared to the RSL curves proposed in this work. Analysis of the RSL database revealed that the RSL rose to reach the present level at or before c. 7000 cal yr BP, with the peak of the sea-level highstand c. +4 m between c. 6000 and 5500 cal yr BP (depending on the statistical method used) or at c. 7000 cal yr BP according to the ICE-6G model prediction, gradually falling after this time to the present position. The subaerial data tell a consistent story for the last 6000 years for the RDP but the subsurface data are not in agreement with these data or with the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) predictions. Since much of the subaerial data come from shells on beaches, beach ridges and storm beaches, they cannot be strictly interpreted as RSL index points. It seems likely that the predicted curves are somewhat high and could be overestimated. The “smooth” model of the late Holocene sea-level decline is in close agreement with both the GIA model predictions and the reconstruction of RSL from palynological and diatom records. The models provide no evidence to suggest that there has been a significant trend of change in the speed of sea-level fall or oscillations during the falling stage system tract. The non-parametric regression model, the GIA predictions and the trend inferred by palynological and diatom data trace out a slow sea-level fall for the last c. 6000 cal yr BP. We critically assessed published Holocene sea-level data from the RDP to produce a Holocene RSL curve of sufficient quality to provide a location in this area for testing theoretical models for the Atlantic coast of South America.

Sea-level evolution of the Laptev Sea and the East Siberian Sea since the last glacial maximum

The Laptev Sea and East Siberian Sea are extended shallow shelf seas which were largely land fallen during glacial periods when the global mean sea level was more than 100 m below its present value. To understand the environmental history, and, in particular, the evolution of the large offshore permafrost complexes in this region, a reconstruction of the sea-level variation and shoreline migration was undertaken. Sufficient geological information by sea-level indicators is missing and, in recent studies, the eustatic sea-level curve is commonly applied, neglecting any isostatic adjustment processes. In this study, we discuss the influence of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), which describes the deformational response of the solid earth and the resulting sea-level variations due to the water mass redistribution between ice sheets and ocean during a glacial cycle. Motivated as a sensitivity study, we consider GIA-induced sea-level variations from the last glacial maximum (LGM) to present and apply an earth model ensemble which covers the range of reasonable rheological parametrisations for a passive continental margin. The geodynamically consistent sea-level reconstructions are applied to predict the shoreline retreat in the Laptev and East Siberian seas. We confirm with this study that the application of the eustatic sea-level curve is a valid first-order approximation for reconstructing the shoreline position from LGM to present, whereas the sea-level heights away from the shoreline inferred from the eustatic sea-level curve differ markedly from GIA predictions.

Long-term vertical land motion from double-differenced tide gauge and satellite altimetry data

We present a new approach to estimate precise long-term vertical land motion (VLM) based on double-differences of long tide gauge (TG) and short altimetry data. We identify and difference rates of pairs of highly correlated sea level records providing relative VLM estimates that are less dependent on record length and benefit from reduced uncertainty and mitigated biases (e.g. altimeter drift). This approach also overcomes the key limitation of previous techniques in that it is not geographically limited to semi-enclosed seas and can thus be applied to estimate VLM at TGs along any coast, provided data of sufficient quality are available. Using this approach, we have estimated VLM at a global set of 86 TGs with a median precision of 0.7 mm/year in a conventional reference frame. These estimates were compared to previous VLM estimates at TGs in the Baltic Sea and to estimates from co-located Global Positioning System (GPS) stations and Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) predictions. Differences with respect to the GPS and VLM estimates from previous studies resulted in a scatter of around 0.6 mm/year. Differences with respect to GIA predictions had a larger scatter in excess of 1 mm/year. Until satellite altimetry records reach enough length to estimate precise VLM at each TG, this new approach constitutes a substantial advance in the geodetic monitoring of TGs with major applications in long-term sea level change and climate change studies.

Last deglacial relative sea level variations in Antarctica derived from glacial isostatic adjustment modelling

We present relative sea level (RSL) curves in Antarctica derived from glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) predictions based on the melting scenarios of the Antarctic ice sheet since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) given in previous works. Simultaneously, Holocene-age RSL observations obtained at the raised beaches along the coast of Antarctica are shown to be in agreement with the GIA predictions. The differences from previously published ice-loading models regarding the spatial distribution and total mass change of the melted ice are significant. These models were also derived from GIA modelling; the variations can be attributed to the lack of geological and geographical evidence regarding the history of crustal movement due to ice sheet evolution. Next, we summarise the previously published ice load models and demonstrate the RSL curves based on combinations of different ice and earth models. The RSL curves calculated by GIA models indicate that the model dependence of both the ice and earth models is significantly large at several sites where RSL observations were obtained. In particular, GIA predictions based on the thin lithospheric thickness show the spatial distributions that are dependent on the melted ice thickness at each sites. These characteristics result from the short-wavelength deformation of the Earth. However, our predictions strongly suggest that it is possible to find the average ice model despite the use of the different models of lithospheric thickness. By sea level and crustal movement observations, we can deduce the geometry of the post-LGM ice sheets in detail and remove the GIA contribution from the crustal deformation and gravity change observed by space geodetic techniques, such as GPS and GRACE, for the estimation of the Antarctic ice mass change associated with recent global warming.

Comparisons at Tide-Gauge Locations of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Predictions with Global Positioning System Measurements

Abstract Houston, J.R. and Dean, R.G., 2012. Comparisons at tide-gauge locations of glacial isostatic adjustment predictions with global positioning system measurements. Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is routinely used to adjust sea-level trends determined from tide-gauge data to improve estimates of worldwide sea-level rise. This adjustment may be appropriate for formerly glaciated high-latitude (referred to as FGHL) areas where vertical land motions due to GIA are large compared with motions produced by other phenomena. However, since GIA is only one component of vertical motion, does adjusting for it outside FGHL areas improve sea-level rise estimates or bias them? We compare global positioning system (GPS) gauge measurements with the vertical land-motion component of GIA predictions at 147 worldwide locations that are near tide gauges and outside FGHL areas and find remarkably little correlation. We analyze the data in several ways to determine the source of the lack of correlation. We also find t...

Late Devensian and Holocene relative sea‐level change in North Wales, UK

AbstractDeglacial sea‐level index points defining relative sea‐level (RSL) change are critical for testing glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model output. Only a few observations are available from North Wales and until recently these provided a poor fit to GIA model output for the British‐Irish Ice Sheet. We present results of an integrated offshore geophysical (seismic reflection), coring (drilling rig), sedimentological, micropalaeontological (foraminifera), biostratigraphical (palynology) and geochronological (AMS 14C) investigation into a sequence of multiple peat/organic sediment horizons interbedded within a thick estuarine–marine sequence of minerogenic clay‐silts to silty sands from the NE Menai Strait, North Wales. Ten new sea‐level index points and nine new limiting dates from the Devensian Late‐glacial and early Holocene are integrated with twelve pre‐existing Holocene sea‐level index points and one limiting point from North Wales to generate a regional RSL record. This record is similar to the most recent GIA predictions for North Wales RSL change, supporting either greater ice load and later deglaciation than in the GIA predictions generated before 2004, or a modified eustatic function. There is no evidence for a mid‐Holocene highstand. Tidally corrected RSL data indicate initial breaching of the Menai Strait between 8.8 and 8.4 ka BP to form a tidal causeway, with final submergence between 5.8 and 4.6 ka BP. Final breaching converted the NE Menai Strait from a flood‐dominated estuary into a high energy ebb tidal delta with extensive tidal scouring of pre‐existing Late‐glacial and Holocene sequences. The study confirms the value of utilising offshore drilling/coring technology to recover sea‐level records which relate to intervals when rates of both eustatic and isostatic change were at their greatest, and therefore of most value for constraining GIA models. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Post-Glacial Isostatic Adjustment and Global Warming in Subarctic Canada: Implications for Islands of the James Bay Region

When Rupert’s Land and the North-Western Territory became a part of Canada as the Northwest Territories in 1870, the islands of James Bay were included within the new territorial boundaries. These same islands became a part of Nunavut in 1999, when the new territory was created from the eastern region of the Northwest Territories. Although the James Bay islands remain part of Nunavut, the western James Bay Cree assert that the western James Bay islands, including Akimiski Island, were part of the Cree traditional territory and that these islands have never been surrendered through treaty. This land-claim issue is further complicated by the fact that glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is occurring in the James Bay region and that the islands of James Bay may one day become part of mainland Ontario or Quebec. We used numerical models of the GIA process to predict how shorelines in James Bay will migrate over the next 1000 years as a result of post-glacial sea-level changes. These predictions, which were augmented by an additional contribution associated with sea-level rise due to global warming, were used to determine whether the islands in James Bay will ever become part of the mainland. The predictions for the islands are sensitive to the two primary inputs into the GIA predictions, namely the models for the geometry of the ancient Laurentide ice sheet and the viscoelastic structure adopted for the solid earth, as well as to the amplitude of the projected global warming signal. Nevertheless, it was found that many of the smaller and larger islands of James Bay will likely join the mainland of either Ontario or Quebec. For example, using a global warming scenario of 1.8 mm sea-level rise per year, a plausible range of GIA models suggests that the Strutton Islands and Cape Hope Islands will join mainland Quebec in ~400 years or more, while Akimiski Island will take at least ~700 years to join mainland Ontario. Using the same GIA models, but incorporating the upper boundary of global warming scenarios of 5.9 mm sea-level rise per year, the Strutton Islands and Cape Hope Islands are predicted to join mainland Quebec in ~600 years or more, and Akimiski Island is predicted not to join mainland Ontario. Since Akimiski Island is already being prospected for diamonds and the future ownership of emergent land remains an issue, these findings have great economic importance.

Glacial isostatic adjustment model constrained by geodetic measurements and relative sea level

The new model of the last glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is constrained simutaneously by the data sets from geodetic measurements, relative sea levels and seismic shear tomographic data. The viscosities in mantle for this model are allowed to vary both radially and laterally. Firstly, the scalling factor β is tentatively chosen for which the lateral perturbations in viscosity are computed based on the linear relation with seismic shear wave anomalies. These lateral perturbations in viscosity are then supperposed logarithmically on a laterally homogeneous reference viscosity model to give the total viscosities in the mantle layers. Based on this 3-D viscosity model, the GIA predictions are computed using the coupled-Laplace Finite-Element Method. Such processes will not end untill the predictions agree well with the observed data sets. The main results are as follows. Firstly, the laterally heterogeneous viscosity model (RF3L20(β=0. 4)) is determined from which the obvious lateral heterogeneities and the prominouced effects on GIA predictions are found. It is indicated the lateral heterogeneities are attributable not just to themal effects but also to lateral variations in chemistry and other factors. The RF3L20(β=0.4) model can be used to the modelling in mantle geodynamics. Secondly, the multiple present GIA rates are predicted that can be served as the important corrections for the monitoring of the tectonic motion, land water storage changes, ocean water mass variations and the non-equilibrium of the ice and snow.

Searching for eustasy in deglacial sea-level histories

Perturbations to the Earth's gravity field and solid surface associated with glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) cause the total (observable) sea-level change to depart from the eustatic curve, which is defined as a spatially uniform height shift of the ocean surface to accommodate any mass gained/lost from grounded ice. In this study we apply a state-of-the-art model of GIA-induced sea-level change to quantify the magnitude and spatial form of this departure at the global scale for a range of model parameters with an aim to identify regions that are well suited to obtain accurate and precise estimates of eustatic sea level (and therefore past grounded ice volume). In general, our results indicate that eustatic sea level is not a directly measurable quantity and so must be estimated by subtracting a model-derived estimate of non-eustatic contributions from observations. In this regard, we use our results to isolate regions where this procedure can be applied with optimal accuracy and precision. That is, where (1) the GIA predictions are relatively insensitive to plausible ranges in input parameters and (2) where the non-eustatic contribution is small (i.e., the predicted sea level closely approximates the eustatic value). We present maps that can be employed by the field community to identify areas where sea-level reconstructions would be well suited to arrive at robust estimates of eustatic sea level. Note that sea-level changes associated with tectonic motion and changes in ocean water temperature/salinity, which also lead to departures from eustasy, are not considered in this analysis.

GIA-induced secular variations in the Earth's long wavelength gravity field: Influence of 3-D viscosity variations

Abstract Predictions of present day secular variations in the Earth's long wavelength geopotential driven by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) have previously been analyzed to infer the radial profile of mantle viscosity and to constrain ongoing cryospheric mass balance. These predictions have been based on spherically symmetric Earth models. We explore the impact of lateral variations in mantle viscosity using a new finite-volume formulation for computing the response of 3-D Maxwell viscoelastic Earth models. The geometry of the viscosity field is constrained from seismic-to-mographic images of mantle structure, while the amplitude of the lateral viscosity variations is tuned by a free parameter in the modeling. We focus on the zonal J˙ l harmonics for degrees l = 2,…,8 and demonstrate that large-scale lateral viscosity variations of two to three orders of magnitude have a modest, 5–10%, impact on predictions of J˙ 2 . In contrast, predictions of higher degree harmonics show a much greater sensitivity to lateral variation in viscosity structure. We conclude that future analyses of secular trends (for degree l > 2) estimated from ongoing (GRACE, CHAMP) satellite missions must incorporate GIA predictions based on 3-D viscoelastic Earth models.