Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Models Research Articles

The comparative role of physical system processes in Hudson Strait ice stream cycling: a comprehensive model-based test of Heinrich event hypotheses

Abstract. Despite their recognized significance on global climate and extensive research efforts, the mechanism(s) driving Heinrich events remain(s) a subject of debate. Here, we use the 3D thermomechanically coupled glacial systems model (GSM) to examine the Hudson Strait ice stream surge cycling and the role of three factors previously hypothesized to play a critical role in Heinrich events: ice shelves, glacial isostatic adjustment, and sub-surface ocean temperature forcings. In contrast to all previous modeling studies examining HEs, the GSM uses a transient last glacial cycle climate forcing, global viscoelastic glacial isostatic adjustment model, and sub-glacial hydrology model. The results presented here are based on a high-variance sub-ensemble retrieved from North American history matching for the last glacial cycle. Over our comparatively wide sampling of the potential parameter space (52 ensemble parameters for climate forcing and process uncertainties), we find two modes of Hudson Strait ice streaming: classic binge–purge versus near-continuous ice streaming with occasional shutdowns and subsequent surge onset overshoot. Our model results indicate that large ice shelves covering the Labrador Sea during the last glacial cycle only occur when extreme calving restrictions are applied. The otherwise minor ice shelves provide insignificant buttressing for the Hudson Strait ice stream. While sub-surface ocean temperature forcing leads to minor differences regarding surge characteristics, glacial isostatic adjustment does have a significant impact. Given input uncertainties, the strongest controls on ice stream surge cycling are the poorly constrained deep geothermal heat flux under Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait and the basal drag law. Decreasing the geothermal heat flux within available constraints and/or using a Coulomb sliding law instead of a Weertman-type power law leads to a shift from the near-continuous streaming mode to the binge–purge mode.

The persisting conundrum of mantle viscosity inferred from mantle convection and glacial isostatic adjustment processes

Mantle viscosity exerts important controls on the long-term (i.e., >106 years) dynamics of the mantle and lithosphere and the short-term (i.e., 10 to 104 years) crustal motion induced by loading forces including ice melting, sea-level changes, and earthquakes. However, mantle viscosity structures inferred from modeling observations associated with mantle dynamic and loading processes may differ significantly and remain a hotly debated topic over recent decades. In this study, we investigate the effects of mantle viscosity structures on observations of the geoid, mantle structures, and present-day crustal motions and time-varying gravity by considering five representative mantle viscosity structures in models of mantle convection and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). These five viscosity models fall into two categories: 1) two viscosity models derived from modeling the geoid in mantle convection models with ∼100 times more viscous lower mantle than the upper mantle, and 2) the other three with less viscosity increase from the upper to lower mantles that are derived from modeling the late Pleistocene and Holocene relative sea level changes and other observations in GIA models. Our convection models use the plate motion history for the last 130 Myrs as the surface boundary conditions and depth- and temperature-dependent viscosity to predict the present-day convective mantle structure of subducted slabs and the intermediate wavelength (degrees 4–12) geoid. Our GIA models using different ice history models (e.g., ICE-6 G and ANU) compute the GIA-induced present-day crustal motions and time-varying gravity. Our calculations demonstrate that while the viscosity models with a higher viscosity in the lower mantle (∼2 × 1022 Pa.s) reproduce the degrees 4–12 geoid and seismic slab structures, they significantly over-predict the geodetic (i.e., GPS and GRACE) observations of crustal motions and time varying gravity. Our calculations also show that while two viscosity models derived from fitting the RSL data with averaged mantle viscosity of ∼1021 Pa.s for the top 1200 km of the mantle reproduce well the geodetic observations independent of ice models, they fail to explain the geoid and seismic slab structures. Therefore, our study highlights the persisting conundrum of mantle viscosity structures derived from different observations. We also discuss a number of possible ways including transient, stress-dependent and 3-D viscosity to resolve this important issue in Geodynamics.

Molecular to macrofossils indicating last millennium sea level in Lavsa saltpans, Croatia

Intertidal salt production sites existed continuously around the Mediterranean since classical antiquity, and their remains are present in large numbers along the Dalmatian (east Adriatic) coast. Most of them are preserved and dated to medieval times. This study aims to develop complementary proxies identifying the salt production layer in submerged ancient saltpans of Lavsa, a remote island on the central Dalmatian coast, to date the saltwork units by optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and use them to infer changes in sea level. The significance of the study is in the application of molecular fossil analyses identifying the hypersaline layer in the sediments from a core drilled in the saltpan's site. The molecular fossil analyses correlate with the results of micro and macrofossil analyses and geochemical findings, all representing the saltwork unit. The depth of the hypersaline layers and the OSL dates provide relative sea level (RSL) lower limiting points of −145 ± 5 cm at 1309 ± 33 CE, probably the time when salt production started in Lavsa, and −115 ± 5 cm at 1364 ± 52 CE when saltwork activities ended. These limiting points extend the known RSL index point in Lavsa Island of −92 ± 8 cm, with an updated average age of 1337 ± 62 CE, correlating with the historical records. Medieval lower sea levels were also observed in the northern and southern parts of the east Adriatic coast as well as in other parts of the Mediterranean, probably driven by climate-related events, generating centennial-scale fluctuations in past sea levels that cannot be predicted by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models.

Feedback mechanisms controlling Antarctic glacial-cycle dynamics simulated with a coupled ice sheet–solid Earth model

Abstract. The dynamics of the ice sheets on glacial timescales are highly controlled by interactions with the solid Earth, i.e., the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). Particularly at marine ice sheets, competing feedback mechanisms govern the migration of the ice sheet's grounding line (GL) and hence the ice sheet stability. For this study, we developed a coupling scheme and performed a suite of coupled ice sheet–solid Earth simulations over the last two glacial cycles. To represent ice sheet dynamics we apply the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), and to represent the solid Earth response we apply the 3D VIscoelastic Lithosphere and MAntle model (VILMA), which, in addition to load deformation and rotation changes, considers the gravitationally consistent redistribution of water (the sea-level equation). We decided on an offline coupling between the two model components. By convergence of trajectories of the Antarctic Ice Sheet deglaciation we determine optimal coupling time step and spatial resolution of the GIA model and compare patterns of inferred relative sea-level change since the Last Glacial Maximum with the results from previous studies. With our coupling setup we evaluate the relevance of feedback mechanisms for the glaciation and deglaciation phases in Antarctica considering different 3D Earth structures resulting in a range of load-response timescales. For rather long timescales, in a glacial climate associated with the far-field sea-level low stand, we find GL advance up to the edge of the continental shelf mainly in West Antarctica, dominated by a self-amplifying GIA feedback, which we call the “forebulge feedback”. For the much shorter timescale of deglaciation, dominated by the marine ice sheet instability, our simulations suggest that the stabilizing sea-level feedback can significantly slow down GL retreat in the Ross sector, which is dominated by a very weak Earth structure (i.e., low mantle viscosity and thin lithosphere). This delaying effect prevents a Holocene GL retreat beyond its present-day position, which is discussed in the scientific community and supported by observational evidence at the Siple Coast and by previous model simulations. The applied coupled framework, PISM–VILMA, allows for defining restart states to run multiple sensitivity simulations from. It can be easily implemented in Earth system models (ESMs) and provides the tools to gain a better understanding of ice sheet stability on glacial timescales as well as in a warmer future climate.

Relative sea-level sensitivity in the Eurasian region to Earth and ice-sheet model uncertainty during the Last Interglacial

Fingerprinting the source and rate of the melt of polar ice sheets during the Last Interglacial is a key research challenge. This is reliant on high-quality relative sea-level constraints, and the correction of this data for the effects of glacial isostatic adjustment driven by ice sheet cover changes prior to the interglacial. However, both the spatial and temporal evolution of past ice sheets and the Earth’s rheological structure that serve as inputs to glacial isostatic adjustment predictions are significantly uncertain. This study sets out to determine the relative influence of each of these inputs on modelled values of Last Interglacial relative sea levels and how this influence varies spatially. To answer this question, we use a palaeo ice-sheet model and a gravitationally consistent glacial isostatic adjustment model. We develop new numerical tools to generate plausible ice-sheet extent and histories, quantify relative sea-level uncertainty, and perform a Sobol sensitivity analysis facilitated by the use of Gaussian process emulation. We find that Earth model parameters are the dominant contributors to relative sea-level uncertainty in most Eurasian regions, but that relative sea-level values in the Barents-Kara Sea are most influenced by ice-sheet loading, while the timing of the deglaciation has the greatest impact in the Baltic Sea. Our results show that the magnitude and rate of relative sea-level change is relatively insensitive to the specific timing of ice-sheet retreat, as well as the configuration of the far-field North American ice sheet. Overall, our work suggests that the coastlines of the southern North Sea and the English Channel are least influenced by relative sea-level uncertainty and are the most suitable for future data collection studies aiming to limit the influence of glacial isostatic adjustment.

Mapping geodetically inferred Antarctic ice surface height changes into thickness changes: a sensitivity study

Abstract. Determining recent Antarctic ice volume changes from satellite altimeter measurements of ice surface height requires a correction for contemporaneous vertical crustal deformation. This correction must consider two main sources of crustal deformation: (1) ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), that is, the deformational, gravitational, and rotational response to Late Pleistocene and Holocene ice and ocean mass changes and (2) modern ice mass change. In this study, we seek to quantify the uncertainties associated with each of these corrections. Corrections of ice surface height changes for correction 1 have generally involved the adoption of global models of GIA defined by some preferred combination of ice history and mantle viscoelastic structure. We have computed the GIA correction generated from a coupled ice sheet–sea level model and a realistic Earth model incorporating three-dimensional viscoelastic structure. Integrating the difference between this correction and those from recent GIA analyses widely adopted in the literature yields an uncertainty in total present-day ice volume change equivalent to approximately 10 % of Antarctic ice mass loss inferred for the period 2010–2020. This reinforces earlier work indicating that ice histories characterized by relatively high excess ice volume at the Last Glacial Maximum may be introducing a significant error in estimates of modern melt rates. Regarding correction 2, a spatially invariant scaling has commonly been used to convert GIA-corrected ice surface height changes obtained from satellite altimetry to ice volume estimates. We adopt modeling results based on a projection of Antarctic ice mass change over the period 2015–2055 to demonstrate a spatial variability in the scaling of up to 10 % across the ice sheet. Furthermore, using these calculations, we find a systematic error of ∼ 3 % in the projected net ice volume change, with most of the difference arising in areas of West Antarctica above mantle zones of low viscosity.

Late Holocene relative sea-level records from coral microatolls in Singapore

Late Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) data are important to understand the drivers of RSL change, but there is a lack of precise RSL records from the Sunda Shelf. Here, we produced a Late Holocene RSL reconstruction from coral microatolls in Singapore, demonstrating for the first time the utility of Diploastrea heliopora microatolls as sea-level indicators. We produced 12 sea-level index points and three marine limiting data with a precision of < ± 0.2 m (2σ) and < ± 26 years uncertainties (95% highest density region). The data show a RSL fall of 0.31 ± 0.18 m between 2.8 and 0.6 thousand years before present (kyr BP), at rates between − 0.1 ± 0.3 and − 0.2 ± 0.7 mm/year. Surface profiles of the fossil coral microatolls suggest fluctuations in the rate of RSL fall: (1) stable between 2.8 and 2.5 kyr BP; (2) rising at ~ 1.8 kyr BP; and (3) stable from 0.8 to 0.6 kyr BP. The microatoll record shows general agreement with published, high-quality RSL data within the Sunda Shelf. Comparison to a suite of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models indicate preference for lower viscosities in the mantle. However, more high quality and precise Late Holocene RSL data are needed to further evaluate the drivers of RSL change in the region and better constrain GIA model parameters.

GNET Derived Mass Balance and Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Constraints for Greenland

AbstractMonitoring the Greenland mass balance (GMB) is crucial in the context of global sea level rise. Currently, three main methods are used to measure GMB, with the primary source of uncertainty arising from the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) contribution. Here, we propose a novel approach based on a simple methodology that uses the entire Greenland GNSS network (GNET) as an instrument to monitor the present‐day mass changes. Our method is validated against GRACE‐derived GMB, and we find a very good agreement. This leads to an independent methodology for estimating present‐day mass changes from GNSS, bridging the gap between GRACE and GRACE‐FO in GMB estimates. Through a combined analysis of GMB from GRACE and GNET, we identify a consistency relation between the gravity and uplift signature of GIA, providing a new robust constraint for GIA models.

Decoding the Interplay Between Tidal Notch Geometry and Sea‐Level Variability During the Last Interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 5e) High Stand

AbstractRelic coastal landforms (fossil corals, cemented intertidal deposits, or erosive features carved onto rock coasts) serve as sea‐level index points (SLIPs), that are widely used to reconstruct past sea‐level changes. Traditional SLIP‐based sea‐level reconstructions face challenges in capturing continuous sea‐level variability and dating erosional SLIPs, such as tidal notches. Here, we propose a novel approach to such challenges. We use a numerical model of cliff erosion embedded within a Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the most likely sea‐level scenarios responsible for shaping one of the best‐preserved tidal notches of Last Interglacial age in Sardinia, Italy. Results align with Glacial Isostatic Adjustment model predictions, indicating that synchronized or out‐of‐sync ice‐volume shifts in Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets can reproduce the notch morphology, with sea level confidently peaking at 6 m and only under a higher than present erosion regime. This new approach yields insight into sea‐level trends during the Last Interglacial.

Effects of Andrade and Burgers rheologies on glacial isostatic adjustment modeling in Antarctica

Variations in ice mass deform the Earth and modify its gravity field, a process known as Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA). GIA in Antarctica remains poorly constrained due to the cumulative effect of past and present ice-mass changes, the unknown history of the past ice-mass change, and the uncertainties on the mechanical properties of the Earth. This paper investigates the effect of using Andrade and Burgers viscoelastic rheologies, rather than the commonly used Maxwell rheology, to model GIA-induced deformation in Antarctica. The Love number and Green's function formalism are used to compute the radial surface displacements and the gravity changes induced by the past and present ice-mass changes. We consider an Earth model whose elastic properties and radial structure are averaged from the Preliminary Reference Earth Model and two viscosity profiles to account for the recently published results on the present ice-mass changes. Using the three rheological laws affects the temporal response of the Earth differently, leading to smaller discrepancies than those induced by the two viscosity structures. The differences are the largest between Maxwell and Burgers rheologies during the 100–1000 years following the beginning of the surface-mass change. Results show that using the Andrade and Burgers rheologies allows the Earth to respond on decennial to centennial time scales, up to 10 m more than Maxwell. Considering only the recent ice-mass changes, the deformation rates derived from Burgers and Andrade rheologies are several times larger than those estimated by Maxwell rheology.

Patterns of glacio‐isostatic adjustment in mainland Scotland: new data from western central Scotland, proximal to the zone of maximum rebound

The results of geomorphological mapping and survey of Lateglacial and Holocene displaced shorelines in the Clyde estuary and around Loch Lomond, western central Scotland are described. On the basis of morphology, sedimentology, altitude and radiocarbon dating, four discrete shorelines are identified and are correlated with previously identified Scottish displaced shorelines. The shoreline formerly referred to as the Main Postglacial Shoreline is renamed the Menteith Shoreline. This body of data, combined with data on displaced shorelines for Scotland as a whole has been analysed using Gaussian quadratic trend surface analysis in order to determine the centre of glacio‐isostatic displacement for each shoreline. These Gaussian models of palaeo‐relative sea‐level suggest that the zone of greatest displacement lay NNW of Loch Lomond in the Lateglacial then moved SSE to the region of Loch Lomond during the Holocene and the Clyde in the Late Holocene. The factors responsible for the movement of the zone of greatest uplift are discussed, including temporal variations in the ice‐sheet thickness, variations in water load in the adjacent sea‐lochs and neotectonic processes. Comparison is made with glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models. A sensitivity analysis has been carried out on the use of Gaussian trend surface analysis glacio‐isostatic modelling and this is included in the research evaluation, and reported in full in the Supporting Information files, along with the raw data used throughout this study.

Globally consistent estimates of high-resolution Antarctic ice mass balance and spatially resolved glacial isostatic adjustment

Abstract. A detailed understanding of how the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) responds to a warming climate is needed because it will most likely increase the rate of global mean sea level rise. Time-variable satellite gravimetry, realized by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO) missions, is directly sensitive to AIS mass changes. However, gravimetric mass balances are subject to two major limitations. First, the usual correction of the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) effect by modelling results is a dominant source of uncertainty. Second, satellite gravimetry allows for a resolution of a few hundred kilometres only, which is insufficient to thoroughly explore causes of AIS imbalance. We have overcome both limitations by the first global inversion of data from GRACE and GRACE-FO, satellite altimetry (CryoSat-2), regional climate modelling (RACMO2), and firn densification modelling (IMAU-FDM). The inversion spatially resolves GIA in Antarctica independently from GIA modelling jointly with changes of ice mass and firn air content at 50 km resolution. We find an AIS mass balance of −144 ± 27 Gt a−1 from January 2011 to December 2020. This estimate is the same, within uncertainties, as the statistical analysis of 23 different mass balances evaluated in the Ice sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE; Otosaka et al., 2023b). The co-estimated GIA corresponds to an integrated mass effect of 86 ± 21 Gt a−1 over Antarctica, and it fits better with global navigation satellite system (GNSS) results than other GIA predictions. From propagating covariances to integrals, we find a correlation coefficient of −0.97 between the AIS mass balance and the GIA estimate. Sensitivity tests with alternative input data sets lead to results within assessed uncertainties.

Impact of the combination and replacement of SLR-based low-degree gravity field coefficients in GRACE solutions

GRACE and GRACE Follow-On (FO) missions provide time-variable gravity field models of unprecedented quality that allow for the hydrological, oceanic, and ice mass change studies on a global scale. However, the very low-degree coefficients derived from GRACE and GRACE-FO are of inferior quality due to thermal effects acting on satellites and malfunctioning of the onboard accelerometers. Therefore, C20 and C30 coefficients describing the Earth’s oblateness and the pear shape of the Earth, respectively, are being replaced by values derived from satellite laser ranging (SLR) in the standard GRACE solutions. This study assesses the impact of the replacement of low-degree gravity field coefficients in GRACE/GRACE-FO solutions by SLR data on the trend and seasonal signals of ice mass changes in Greenland and Antarctica. We found that the replacement of the low-degree gravity field coefficients changes the estimates of trends by 4, 8, and 22 Gt/year in Greenland, West, and East Antarctica, respectively, depending on the source of SLR coefficients and period for which the coefficients are replaced. In SLR and GRACE solutions, all coefficients of the same order and the same parity of degrees are strongly correlated. Therefore, replacing only two selected coefficients may lead to a biased solution. Thus, we propose to combine GRACE with SLR solutions up to a degree and order 10 × 10 to properly consider the sensitivity of each of the techniques to gravity field coefficients, instead of replacing two coefficients from SLR in GRACE solutions. The combined solution reduces the residual trend of post-glacial rebound from 1.2 to 0.9 Gt/year and from − 57.8 to − 57.0 Gt/year in Scandinavia and South Canada, respectively, when compared to GRACE/GRACE-FO solutions with the replacement of coefficients. The SLR-GRACE combination reduces the noise in the GRACE/GRACE-FO solutions by 8%, from 38 to 35 Gt, in the Fennoscandia region. In the periods when GRACE is at the end of its mission and observations are disrupted, the weights adjust the contribution from SLR and GRACE based on relative ratio of variances from each techniques. Thus, the combined solutions are more consistent with independent geophysical models of glacial isostatic adjustment, and the combinations are affected by smaller noise than the standard GRACE solutions and properly account for different sensitivities of SLR and GRACE techniques to low-degree time-variable gravity field coefficients.

Coastal Lagoonal Evolution within the Early Holocene Humber Estuary, eastern England

ABSTRACTRapid sea‐level rise during the Early Holocene around the North Sea coastal lowlands provided conditions under which estuarine and coastal features, with no modern equivalents, could be created. Investigation of nearshore sediments within the Outer Humber Estuary, UK, has identified a tidal lagoonal system, created between c. 9000 and 7800 cal a bp. These sequences show the initial flooding of a carr woodland, prior to the establishment of more saline conditions as the tidal lagoonal system developed. Inter‐core comparisons, based on diatom and pollen analyses, suggest variations in the structure of a tidal lagoon setting, which probably lasted for only a brief period before being submerged by rising sea levels. The absence of an erosive contact in several of the sequences studied has permitted the creation of the oldest sea‐level index points for the Outer Humber Estuary, providing validation for the current glacial isostatic adjustment models for the region.

Imprint of relative sea level histories on Last Interglacial coral preservation

SUMMARY Fossil corals are commonly used to reconstruct Last Interglacial (∼125 ka, LIG) sea level. Sea level reconstructions assume the water depth at which the coral lived, called the ‘relative water depth’. However, relative water depth varies in time and space due to coral reef growth in response to relative sea level (RSL) changes. RSL changes can also erode coral reefs, exposing older reef surfaces with different relative water depths. We use a simplified numerical model of coral evolution to investigate how sea level history systematically influences the preservation of corals in the Bahamas and western Australia, regions which house &amp;gt;100 LIG coral fossils. We construct global ice histories spanning the uncertainty of LIG global mean sea level (GMSL) and predict RSL with a glacial isostatic adjustment model. We then simulate coral evolution since 132 ka. We show that preserved elevations and relative water depths of modelled LIG corals are sensitive to the magnitude, timing and number of GMSL highstand(s). In our simulations, the influence of coral growth and erosion (i.e. the ‘growth effect’) can have an impact on RSL reconstructions that is comparable to glacial isostatic adjustment. Thus, without explicitly accounting for the growth effect, additional uncertainty is introduced into sea level reconstructions. Our results suggest the growth effect is most pronounced in western Australia due to Holocene erosion, but also plays a role in the Bahamas, where LIG RSL rose rapidly due to the collapsing peripheral bulge associated with Laurentide Ice Sheet retreat. Despite the coral model's simplicity, our study highlights the utility of process-based RSL reconstructions.

Postseismic Deformation in the Northern Antarctic Peninsula Following the 2003 and 2013 Scotia Sea Earthquakes

AbstractLarge earthquakes in the vicinity of Antarctica have the potential to cause postseismic viscoelastic deformation affecting measurements of displacement that are used to constrain models of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). In November 2013, a Mw 7.7 strike‐slip earthquake occurred in the Scotia Sea, 650 km from the Antarctic Peninsula. GPS time series from the northern Peninsula show a change in rate after this event, indicating a far‐field postseismic deformation signal is present. In this study, we use a finite element model with a suite of 1D and 3D Earth structures to investigate the extent of postseismic deformation in the Antarctic Peninsula. Model output is compared with GPS time series to place constraints on the Earth structure in this region. The preferred Earth structure has a thin lithosphere combined with a Burgers rheology with steady‐state viscosity of 4 × 1018 Pa s and transient viscosity one order of magnitude lower. Our study shows that including 3D Earth structure does not improve the fit. Using the best fitting Earth structure, we run a forward model of the nearby 2003 Mw 7.6 strike‐slip earthquake and combine the predictions for both earthquakes. We show that postseismic deformation is widespread across the northern Peninsula with rates of horizontal deformation up to 1.65 mm/yr for the period 2015–2020, a signal that persists for decades. These results suggest that much of Antarctica may be deforming due to recent postseismic deformation and this signal needs to be accounted for when using GPS observations to constrain geophysical models.

ENSO may have contributed to sea level changes in the Gulf of Thailand during the Late-Holocene

The Gulf of Thailand is ideal for studying eustatic sea level fluctuations in Southeast Asia due to its shallow basin and tectonic stability. However, our understanding of how this region’s relative sea level (RSL) has fluctuated over the Holocene epoch is far from complete. In this study, we used lithostratigraphy, loss on ignition, grain size, and pollen analyses to reconstruct the environmental changes in the Sam Roi Yot wetland, which was significantly influenced by seawater intrusion, driven by fluctuations in RSL in the Gulf of Thailand. Therefore, the analyzed pollen records of the sediment core from the wetland reflected variabilities in the RSL in the Gulf of Thailand. Subsequently, we found that after a sea level highstand prior to 4000 cal y BP, the RSL gradually fell with two significant regressions at c. 2950 and 1850–1450 cal y BP before rising at 1450–1050 cal y BP and declining after that. The inconsistency between RSL reconstruction based on our results and the global sea level changes simulated by the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) model further suggests that long–term El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) variabilities may have played a significant role in sea level changes in the Gulf of Thailand over the Late-Holocene period. Thus, during extended El Niño or La Niña conditions, the sea level would have been consistently lower or higher than expected from eustatic and isostatic processes alone. Overall, this study emphasizes the importance of considering regional factors such as ENSO to understand sea level changes in Southeast Asia.

Glacial Isostatic Adjustment modelling of the mid-Holocene sea-level highstand of Singapore and Southeast Asia

The mid-Holocene sea-level highstand refers to higher-than-present relative sea levels (RSLs) in far-field regions between 7000 and 4000 years ago because of equatorial ocean syphoning and continental levering. But the timing, magnitude, and spatial variability of the highstand are uncertain and the highstand parameterization in Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) modelling is understudied. Here, we use the RSL records of Southeast Asia to investigate the sensitivity of the mid-Holocene highstand properties to Earth and ice model parameters, including lithospheric thickness, mantle viscosity (both 1D and 3D), and deglaciation history of Antarctica and global ice sheets. We found that the Earth model variation only affects the magnitude of the mid-Holocene highstand unless extraordinary low upper mantle viscosity is used. The timing of the highstand moves towards present and there is an absence of the highstand if upper mantle viscosity is < 4.0 × 1019 Pa s or ≤ 1.0 × 1019 Pa s, respectively. Ice model variation changes both the timing and magnitude of the mid-Holocene highstand. Delaying the ice-equivalent sea level will shift the timing of the highstand later and result in a lower highstand magnitude. We produced a mid-Holocene highstand “treasure map” that considers topography change and accommodation space to guide future RSL data collection efforts in Southeast Asia. The highstand “treasure map” indicates that the northeast and central west coast of Malay-Thai Peninsula, east coast of Sumatra, north coast of Java, and southwest coast of Borneo are very likely (90% probability) to preserve mid-Holocene highstand evidence.

Refining patterns of melt with forward stratigraphic models of stable Pleistocene coastlines

Abstract. The warmest peak of the Last Interglacial (ca. 128–116 ka) is considered a process analogue and is often studied to better understand the effects of a future warmer climate on the Earth's system. In particular, significant efforts have been made to better constrain ice sheet contributions to the peak Last Interglacial sea level through field observation of paleo relative sea level indicators. Along tropical coastal margins, these observations are predominantly based on fossil shallow coral reef sequences, which also provide the possibility of gathering reliable U-series chronological constraints. However, the preservation of many Pleistocene reef sequences is often limited to a series of discrete relative sea level positions within the interglacial, where corals suitable for dating were preserved. This, in turn, limits our ability to understand the continuous evolution of paleo relative sea level through an entire interglacial, also affecting the possibility of unraveling the existence and pattern of sub-stadial sea level oscillations. While the interpretation of lithostratigraphic and geomorphologic properties is often used to overcome this hurdle, geological interpretation may present issues related to subjectivity when dealing with missing facies or incomplete sequences. In this study, we try to step back from a conventional approach, generating a spectrum of synthetic Quaternary subtropical fringing reefs for a site in southwestern Madagascar (Indian Ocean). We use the Dionisos forward stratigraphic model (from Beicip-Franlab) to build a fossil reef at this location. In each model run, we use distinct Greenland and Antarctica ice sheet melt scenarios produced by a coupled ANICE–SELEN glacial isostatic adjustment model. The resulting synthetic reef sequences are then used test these melt scenarios against the stratigraphic record. We propose that this sort of stratigraphic modeling may provide further quantitative control when interpreting Last Interglacial reef sequences.

Simulation of a fully coupled 3D glacial isostatic adjustment – ice sheet model for the Antarctic ice sheet over a glacial cycle

Abstract. Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) has a stabilizing effect on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet by reducing the grounding line migration following ice melt. The timescale and strength of this feedback depends on the spatially varying viscosity of the Earth's mantle. Most studies assume a relatively long and laterally homogenous response time of the bedrock. However, the mantle viscosity is spatially variable, with a high mantle viscosity beneath East Antarctica and a low mantle viscosity beneath West Antarctica. For this study, we have developed a new method to couple a 3D GIA model and an ice sheet model to study the interaction between the solid Earth and the Antarctic ice sheet during the last glacial cycle. With this method, the ice sheet model and GIA model exchange ice thickness and bedrock elevation during a fully coupled transient experiment. The feedback effect is taken into account with a high temporal resolution, where the coupling time steps between the ice sheet and GIA model are 5000 years over the glaciation phase and vary between 500 and 1000 years over the deglaciation phase of the last glacial cycle. During each coupling time step, the bedrock elevation is adjusted at every ice sheet model time step, and the deformation is computed for a linearly changing ice load. We applied the method using the ice sheet model ANICE and a 3D GIA finite element model. We used results from a regional seismic model for Antarctica embedded in the global seismic model SMEAN2 to determine the patterns in the mantle viscosity. The results of simulations over the last glacial cycle show that differences in mantle viscosity of an order of magnitude can lead to differences in the grounding line position up to 700 km and to differences in ice thickness of the order of 2 km for the present day near the Ross Embayment. These results underline and quantify the importance of including local GIA feedback effects in ice sheet models when simulating the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the last glacial cycle.