GIS-based Risk Assessment Research Articles

GIS-Based Risk Assessment on Sea Level Rise and Flooding in Alsancak Harbour Behind Area

According to climate change projections outlined in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 6th Assessment Report, sea levels are expected to rise between 0.37 and 1.88 meters by 2150. The rise in sea level poses a significant threat to coastal areas, including industrial heritage zones frequently developed around ports. Alsancak Harbour Behind Area is a significant location due to its essential industrial heritage. The main objective of the research is to evaluate the potential risks related to floods and long-term sea level rises in the Alsancak Harbour Behind Area. Thus, the research aims to assess the potential risks associated with flooding and long-term sea level rise in the Alsancak Harbour Behind Area within the context of industrial heritage. It also measures the area's resilience to these risks and discusses planning decisions. The ‘Coastal Risk Screening Tool’ was used to create a coastal flood map according to determined three different scenarios. The result shows that the valuable industrial heritage buildings such as the Coal Gas Factory, Old Flour Mill-II and Tariş Alcohol Factory, new high-rise residential areas, port facilities and transportation arteries are at high or medium risk, especially in 2100 and 2150.

GIS-Based Risk Assessment and Mitigation of Road Slope Instability in Morotai Island Regency

Road slope inventory is one part of the integrated activities in a road slope management system, together with inspection, risk assessment, risk level mitigation, road slope database and maintenance. The road slope management system is equipped with a series of inseparable guidelines. Road slope inventory is carried out by collecting road slope data which includes slope geometry and dimensions, slope engineering construction and slopes with failures on a road section. The aim of this research is to identify and analyze the risk level assessment and mitigation of potential slope failures that impact the function of National roads in Morotai Island Regency. This research method includes an inventory of road slopes starting with determining the location, collecting and reviewing secondary data, and identifying the condition of each road slope based on the inventory form. The risk level assessment indicators used in this research include: general site, road slope geometric, slope geology, road slope, road slope engineering construction, condition slope site collapses, road body and shoulder, drainage, instrumentation. This identification was carried out at 10 points that had a slope height greater than 5 m. Based on the research results, it was found that the slope risk level on the national road section in Morotai Island Regency was with the highest risk found on the Daeo/Sangowo – Bere Bere road section (61-021-001-A) with the type of collapse being rock falls and a risk value of 84.9, then the road section with the lowest risk is the Sopi – Wayabula 1 road section (61-0231-001-A) with the type of collapse in the form of rock falls with a risk value of 39.1. The results of the inventory of potential road slope collapses in this research were then visualized through mapping using a Geographic Information System-based application. This will make it easier for stakeholders to make policies in road slope management.

GIS-based risk assessment of flood disaster in the Lijiang River Basin

This study is designed to provide a scientific reference for the establishment of rainstorm and flood disaster prevention system in Guilin region and improve the risk assessment of rainstorm and flood disasters. To realize the goal, a flood risk evaluation model is established by weight analysis methods including the entropy weight method and the analytic hierarchy process from 3 aspects, i.e., risk of disaster causing factors, sensitivity of disaster-pregnant environment and vulnerability of disaster bearing body. For the model, the daily precipitation 1980–2020 of 6 representative national meteorological stations in the Lijiang River Basin was used as reference data of disaster causing factors; six indicators, i.e., NDVI, river network density, geological hazard, slope, slope aspect and terrain undulation were selected as the sensitivity of disaster-pregnant environment; NPP, potential of farmland production, and population density were taken as the criteria for determining the vulnerability of disaster bearing capacity. Meanwhile, ArcGIS was used for analysis and calculation to complete the risk assessment of flood disaster in Lijiang River Basin, Guangxi. The results indicate that: (1) the hazard level of flood disaster causing factors in Lijiang River Basin shows a decreasing distribution pattern from north to south, and high-risk areas cover 3108.47 km2, accounting for 21.29%; (2) the stability grade of disaster-pregnant environment shows a decreasing trend from the surrounding mountains to the plains, and the low-stability and lower-stability areas are mostly found in the low-lying areas around Lijiang River, with an area of 4218.63 km2, accounting for 28.69%; (3) the vulnerability of the disaster bearing body is generally at a low level, and the areas with high level cover 246.96 km2, accounting for only 1.69%; (4) under the combined effect of the above factors, the northern part of Guilin City in the Lijiang River Basin has a high risk of flood disaster.

GIS-Based Risk Assessment of Structure Attributes in Flood Zones of Odiongan, Romblon, Philippines

Flood triggered by heavy rains and typhoons leads to extensive damage to land and structures putting rural communities in crucial condition. Most of the studies on risk assessment focus on environmental factors, and building attributes have not been given attention. The five most expensive typhoon events in the Philippines were recorded in 2008–2013, causing USD 138 million in damage costs. This indicates the lack of tool/s that would aid in the creation of appropriate mitigation measure/s and/or program/s in the country to reduce damage caused by typhoons and flooding. Hence, this study highlights a structure vulnerability assessment approach employing the combination of analytical hierarchy process, physical structure attributes, and existing flood hazard maps by the local government unit. The available flood hazard maps were layered into base maps, and building attributes were digitized using a geographic information system. The result is an essential local scale risk map indicating the building risk index correlated to the structural information of each exposed structure. It was recorded that of 3094 structures in the community, 370 or 10.25% were found to be at moderate risk, 3094 (76.79%) were found to be high risk, and 503 (12.94%) were very high risk. The local government unit can utilize the resulting maps and information to determine flood risk priority areas to plan flood mitigation management strategies and educate people to improve the structural integrity of their houses. A risk map gives people an idea of what to improve in their houses to reduce their vulnerability to natural disasters. Moreover, the result of the study provides direction for future studies in the country to reduce loss and enhance structure resiliency against flooding.

GIS-based risk assessment of tropical surface water pollution by integrating hydrogeological and anthropogenic parameters

Surface water pollution is a huge issue worldwide that keeps growing in magnitude and complexity which leads to millions of people don’t have access to clean water resource. Numerous studies on vulnerability, hazard and risk assessment of water pollution had been conducted yet most of them only focused on one of the three risk components. Therefore, the objective of this study was to apply a geospatial approach that integrated hydrogeological and anthropogenic parameters to assess the risk of surface water pollution in Selangor River Basin, Malaysia. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) were applied in hydrogeological vulnerability assessment. WRASTIC index was used in anthropogenic hazard assessment. The risk map showed that high-risk zones were mainly located in areas where development and agricultural activities are extensive. Conversely, low-risk zones were in areas that were mostly covered by forest with few developments, such as the upstream region. The results also revealed that high and very risk levels were dependent on soil media and presence of land use and anthropogenic activity especially agriculture, industry, and wastewater presence. The risk map also showed that developed area with high hydrogeological vulnerability would have higher risk of pollution compared to areas without any anthropogenic hazard. The risk map can assist stakeholders to identify at risk of pollution. This allows for better decision-making in integrated river basin management.

GIS-based risk assessment of agrometeorological disasters of summer maize in northern mountainous area of Sichuan Basin: A case study of Wangcang County, Sichuan Province, China

Meteorological disaster is one of the main factors restricting agriculture development in China. It is important to clarify the risk of summer maize agrometeorological disaster for disaster prevention and mitigation. Based on the natural disaster risk theory, we collected meteorological data and maize yield data from 1981 to 2018 in a typical area in the northern mountainous area of Sichuan Basin (Wangcang County). The main disaster-causing factors affecting summer maize production were determined. A comprehensive agro-meteorological disaster risk assessment model for summer maize was constructed in combination with the sensitivity of pregnant environment and vulnerability of disaster bearing to evaluate the agrometeorological disasters risk of summer maize production in the northern mountainous area of Sichuan Basin. The results showed that during the study period, high temperature in mature period, rainstorm in flowering period, rainstorm in mature period, continuous rain in filling period and drought in booting stage were the main agrometeorological disasters affecting the growth and development of summer maize. The agrometeorological disaster risk of maize generally distributed in a southwest-northeast pattern, with the distribution areas of high-risk and higher-risk areas accounting for half of the total area of Wangcang County. The high-risk areas were mainly located in the southwest of the county, which was basically consistent with the high-value areas of hazard-pregnant environment sensitivity. The low-risk areas were mostly concentrated in the western part of county territory, which were also low-risk areas of high temperature in mature period, rainstorm in mature period, and rainstorm in flowering period disasters.

GIS-based Flood Risk Assessment in the Urban Catchment of Uyo Metropolis, Nigeria

Flood occurs as a result of rising global temperatures, more precipitation, increased runoff, and an increase in the rate of urban flooding. The goal of this research is to calculate the flood risk assessment of a selected urban catchment in the Nigerian metropolis of Uyo. Secondary data were obtained from Landsat images of the study area using a correlational research design. Using supervised categorization of landuse in the area, the watershed pattern, landuse/landcover, and inundation level were determined using the area's Digital Elevation Model. The study also used a GIS-assisted computer simulation of storm water created by enhanced DEM to assess storm water level and inundation as a function of landuse/landcover change. Storm water generation assessment, inundation modeling, assessment of land cover and level of inundation, and evaluation of flash flood susceptibility using modeled inundation were among the hydrological models and techniques used to analyze the data. The findings revealed that Uyo has a number of streams with varying flow lengths. Uyo has 21 sub-basins, according to the study. In uyo, the total runoff was greater (0.74) inches. In Uyo, the rate of change in catchment behavior, such as catchment precipitation, node flooding, and runoff, increased with the time of day, whereas the rate of change in runoff volume varied somewhat. The hydrograph was not wider because the sections of Uyo metropolitan that were prone to moderate and high floods were higher (78.03 percent ). Based on these findings, the study suggests that better city design is needed to control the impact of flooding in the study area. To prevent the loss of life and property, areas prone to moderate and high flood vulnerability should be closely monitored and secured.

Gis-Based Landslide Susceptibility Zonation and Risk Assessment in Complex Landscape: A Case of Beshilo Watershed, Northern Ethiopia

Gis-Based Landslide Susceptibility Zonation and Risk Assessment in Complex Landscape: A Case of Beshilo Watershed, Northern Ethiopia

A GIS-Based Risk Assessment Approach for Evaluating Shelters in Crisis Areas: Case of Idleb/Syria

Millions of people escaped the country, and numerous individuals were displaced since the crisis in Syria started on March 15, 2011. Particularly, internally displaced persons confront troubles in the sense of shelter and housing requirements. The aim of this paper is to propose a new approach for risk assessment in selecting shelters at humanitarian context in crisis areas by employing real data from the region. We included conducting risk assessment in crisis areas, identifying the risks/criteria using the Delphi technique, prioritizing risks using Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (IT2F-AHP), and finally selecting the shelters with lower risk values. For this purpose, we created risk maps for each individual risk/criterion by employing the Geographic Information System (GIS) and merged the risks’ maps into a single final risk map by overlaying them utilizing the weights produced from F-AHP to discover the complete risk value for each area in the study region. Lastly, we extracted and ranked the final risk values for the shelters to enable the decision maker to consider the lower-risk value shelters, as it can aid in expediting and facilitating the housing solutions at times of disasters and crisis.

A MCDM Based on Goal Programming and GIS-Based Risk Assessment for the Evaluation of Educational Locations in Conflict Areas

Abstract Conflict is recognized as a major barrier in socio-economic development. In conflict situations, most sectors such as health, food, shelter and education are adversely affected. The provision of education services to conflict-affected children saves them from becoming a lost generation and contributes to community building. Thus, we conducted this research to investigate the potential of a GIS (Geographic Information Systems) approach and risk assessment based multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) for the allocation of displaced dropped-out children to the most appropriate educational centres, taking into account multiple goals related to cost, distance, risk, etc. A two-stage approach was adopted, utilizing a risk assessment approach, and a location-allocation approach. The risk assessment approach was carried out using GIS and F-AHP (Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process) to determine the risk value of each candidate educational centre in the conflict area. In the location-allocation stage, a mathematical model was developed to allocate all demands to the chosen centres. All presented methods were computationally conducted on real case data provided by direct beneficiaries and stakeholders in the 26 sub-districts in the Idleb governorate, Syria. The computational results demonstrate that the proposed approaches ensure practical and theoretical impacts.

A GIS-based risk assessment of hydrogen transport: Case study in Yokohama City

This study proposes a method of assessing the risk of hydrogen transport via road considering spatial features of a transport route, based on a geographic information system (GIS); a case study of Yokohama, Japan was considered in the assessment. The risk determined by multiplying the frequency of accidents with their consequences was estimated using road segments constituting the entire transport route. The effects of road structure, traffic volumes, and population information were reflected in the estimation of the risk for each road segment by using GIS. In the case study, the risks of transport route were assessed at an acceptable level under risk criteria. The results indicated that the risks fluctuated according to the road segments, indicating that spatial features of a transport route significantly affect the corresponding risks. Analyzing this importance indicates the transport routing to avoid high risk road segments as countermeasures.

基于GIS的汕尾市城区内涝灾害风险评价

基于GIS的汕尾市城区内涝灾害风险评价

The Canadian food cold chain: A legislative, scientific, and prospective overview

The aim of this work is to review the state and performance of the food cold chain in Canada, highlight current and potential research on the cold chain, and identify areas for improvement. The cold chain in Canada faces unique challenges related to the succession of warm (summer) and freezing (winter) conditions during the year, the long transportation distances, and the presence of hundreds of northern communities not accessible year-round by road, rail or sea. Time-temperature profiles indicate that the temperature of perishable foods is successfully kept in the desired range along a typical Canadian four-step cold chain in winter but that improvements should be made to lower the temperature during transportation and storage at the processor in summer. The recent development of the Canadian GIS-based Risk Assessment, Simulation, and Planning (CanGRASP) tool represents a significant achievement that will make it possible to simulate the performance of the cold chain at a national scale and opens promising avenues for preventing foodborne outbreaks and investigating new food management systems designed to reduce food waste and energy consumption. Making community-specific adjustments to cold chains that deliver food to northern communities should be a major priority for future cold chain improvements, as it could help alleviate their higher-than-average concerns about food security.

Developments and Drawbacks in Critical Infrastructure and Regional Planning: A Case Study on Region of Cologne, Germany

Critical infrastructures (CIs) are of a dual character: they are a protection good that can be adversely affected by a threat, but at the same time, some infrastructure categories are dangerous in their own right. Because it integrates collaboration and decision-making on how space should be used, spatial planning is an important process in development of CI. Risk management utilizing spatial planning includes analysis and management tools that have a spatial and place-based context. In Germany, CI deserves protection as laid down in the Federal Regional Planning Act. This research paper starts from the hypothesis that regional planning is obligated to take the physical component of CI and its susceptibility against various threats into account. However, the administrative boundaries that define a region in this context is not the appropriate level of analysis for assessing the systemic criticality of CI which is up to territorial levels that consider an entire infrastructure network and to individual project approval procedures. The paper discusses the role of regional planning for the protection of CI by the example of the Region of Cologne, Germany. This research was collaborative in nature carried out between a scientific partner and the Region of Cologne that served as a so-called model region for “co-production of knowledge”. The role of science in this context is problematic because science cannot give a proof of normative aspects like the intended level of acceptable risk or the importance of the protection of CI. Science in this context is inconclusive. Thus, there was a need to involve all those experts of the regional administration that are legally responsible or involved in the assessment of risks and management of land. Throughout the project, this included representatives from the divisions of regional planning, natural protection, water management, immission control and crisis management. The entire team of researchers and practitioners came to an agreement on the various normative decisions, for example, concerning the research approach or the definition of susceptibility indicators. This collaborative approach, which is principally applicable in other regions in Germany as well, guarantees for applicability of planning decisions on the ground. Finally, using results from a GIS-based risk assessment demonstrated how regional spatial planning takes CI into account. The assessment results will be used by the administration of the Region of Cologne for the Environmental Report to be prepared for the new regional plan.

GIS-Based Risk Assessment of Hail Disasters Affecting Cotton and Its Spatiotemporal Evolution in China

Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of hail disaster risk for cotton is crucial in mitigating hail disaster and promoting the sustainability of cotton farming. Based on such indexes as hail disaster frequency, spatiotemporal exposure, and vulnerability of cotton, we assess hail disaster risk for cotton, and analyze its spatiotemporal pattern and evolution in Mainland China from 1950 to 2009, supported by geographic information system (GIS). The following conclusions are drawn: (1) The proposed risk assessment method reveals the spatiotemporal difference of hail disaster risk for cotton at the county level. (2) Hail disaster risk for cotton is low in China, except for north of the North China Plain and the cotton-planting areas in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. From 1950 to 2009, hail disaster risk for cotton gradually increased. (3) The descending orders of hail disaster risk levels for cotton are bud stage, seedling stage, sowing and seeding stage, boll stage, and boll opening stage. The growth period with the highest risk varies across the cotton-planting areas. (4) The results of this paper are important for developing hail disaster prevention and reduction measures.

A decision aid GIS-based risk assessment and vulnerability analysis approach for transportation and pipeline networks

The objective of this study was to develop a framework for integrated assessment of service vulnerabilities based on individual system failure probabilities, consequences, and potential interactions with other infrastructure networks. A comprehensive integrated network methodology was developed to evaluate and quantify the interactions between different infrastructure networks which included transportation and pipeline systems for water and sewer services. The quantitative risks were performed in terms of the individual network vulnerabilities, interactions of different networks (traffic, water, sewer), affected service areas, number of vehicles, and delays in transportation (vehicle hours) using ArcGIS. The interactive vulnerability and quantitative risk assessment methodology was demonstrated by applying for the transportation and pipeline systems infrastructure for the service area in downtown Miami, Florida. The impacts on traffic flow were evaluated by segmentation based on the node-based connections and visualized using ArcGIS. Based on the analyses, about 3.15square miles in the case study area (17.76square miles) is vulnerable for service interruptions which will affect traffic flow significantly. This corresponds to about 58,805 people in the service area. The integrated methodology developed can be used for asset management for developing effective maintenance programs to improve service quality in areas served by multiple infrastructure networks.

GIS-based methodology for erosion risk assessment of the muddy coast in the Yangtze Delta

Muddy coasts are widely distributed around the world, especially adjacent to large estuaries. These regions are highly susceptible to coastal erosion with its dense population, developed economy and low-lying land. Due to immense natural and human pressures, there is an urgent need for a more comprehensive understanding of coastal erosion risk in such areas. Various models have been established, but most of them focused on sandy coasts and physical factors that influence coastal erosion while socioeconomic factors were usually ignored. Accordingly, this study presents a GIS-based risk assessment of coastal erosion for muddy coasts by combining both the physical and socioeconomic aspects of erosion. The method is used to assess coastal erosion risk in the Yangtze Delta. Based on the DPSIR (Driving forces, Pressure, State, Impact, and Response) framework, 10 vulnerability indicators and 3 impact indicators corresponding to physical and socioeconomic aspects, respectively, are identified to constitute an indicator system. These indicators are weighted using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique, and then are combined into a Vulnerability Index and a Hazard Index, which then are merged into a Risk Index. Then, these indexes are normalized to 0%–100%. Finally, the normalized values are ranked into 5 levels: very low (<20%), low (20% ≤ Is<40%), moderate (40% ≤ Is<60%), high (60% ≤ Is<80%) or very high (≥80%). This study is the first to comprehensively assess coastal erosion risk in the Yangtze Delta by integrating physical and socioeconomic factors at a detailed spatial scale. The results provide a clear picture of the current coastal erosion risk in the study area, despite of some limitations. The study also reveals key gaps in data gathering and coastal management practices that need to be addressed in order to develop more effective long-term coastal management.

A national produce supply chain database for food safety risk analysis

During a foodborne crisis, risk assessors are often scrambling to assemble data needed to trace suspected foods along very complex supply chains. Although traceability systems ensure that stakeholders in the supply chain record lot-specific trace-back and trace-forward data, there are few databases available that describe in detail the flow of product in the complex web of supply chains. This paper presents the methodological approach used to design and assemble a relational database of nation-wide trade data for packaged ready-to-eat lettuce and leafy greens. The database was used in the development of an integrated simulation tool (Canadian GIS-based Risk Assessment, Simulation and Planning for food safety tool, i.e. CanGRASP) that can predict the spatial distribution and public health risk associated with contaminated food. The database includes the geographical coordinates of 5 domestic processors, 28 produce distribution centres and 2946 retail outlets from five of the top ten retail chains in Canada. It also includes other critical information to predict the fate of pathogens during distribution of contaminated product through the supply chain including: (a) product volumes handled by each stakeholder, (b) flow of product between stakeholders, (c) temperatures of product each season, and (d) times products spend in each step or during transit between steps, for each season. The database is used by both the simulation and mapping components of the integrated simulation tool during risk assessment exercises associated with emergency preparedness planning and training. Using the database, CanGRASP was able to assess the spread of the population at risk during a simulation of a hypothetical outbreak caused by fresh-cut leafy vegetables contaminated with Escherichia coli O157:H7 in the Canadian food distribution systems during both summer and winter seasons.

GIS-based risk assessment for the Nile Delta coastal zone under different sea level rise scenarios case study: Kafr EL Sheikh Governorate, Egypt

Sea level changes are caused by several natural phenomena, including mainly ocean thermal expansion, glacial melt from Greenland and Antarctica. It was estimated, in this respect, that global average sea level rose, during the 20th Century, by at least 10 cm. This trend is expected to continue and most likely accelerated during the 21st Century due to human-induced global warming. Global average sea level is expected to rise, by the year 2100, due to global warming between 0.18 and 0.59 cm. Such a rise in sea-level will significantly impact coastal areas due to the high concentration of natural and socioeconomic activities and assets located along the coast. The northern coastal zone of the Nile Delta is generally low land, and is consequently vulnerable to direct and indirect impacts of sea level rise (SLR) due to climate changes, particularly inundation. Despite the uncertainty associated with developed scenarios for climate change and expected SLR, there is a need, according to precautionary approach, to assess and analyze the impacts of SLR. Such an assessment, on one hand, can assist in formulating effective adaptation options to specific, sometimes localized, impacts of SLR. On the other hand, such an analysis can contribute significantly to the development of integrated approach to deal with the impacts of SLR. The objective of this paper is to assess and spatially analyze the risks of expected sea level rise (SLR), in particular inundation, and its implications up to the year 2100 in Kafr El Sheikh Governorate, Egypt, using GIS techniques. For that purpose, a GIS was developed for the study area and then utilized to identify the spatial extent of those areas that would be vulnerable to inundation by SLR. Moreover, various land uses/land covers susceptible to such inundation were identified. Results indicate that more than 22.59 % and 24.50 % of the total area of Kafr El Sheikh Governorate would be vulnerable to inundation under B1 and A1FI (IPCC most optimistic and pessimistic scenarios), respectively. No significant difference was noticed between the two scenarios in terms of spatial extent of SLR impacts. It was also found that a significant proportion of these areas were found to be currently either undeveloped or wetlands. Moreover, it was found that about 90.13 % of the vulnerable areas are actually less exposed to the risks of SLR due to the existence of a number of man-made features, not intended as protection measures, e.g. International Coastal Highway, that can be used to limit the areas vulnerable to inundations by SLR.

A fast GIS-based risk assessment for tephra fallout: the example of Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador

A fast GIS-based risk assessment for tephra fallout: the example of Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador