German Banks Research Articles

Sustainable small business lending

Banks are the main source of external funding for small businesses. Thus, integrating sustainability considerations in small business lending can support global sustainability efforts. In surveying German banks, I show that banks are in the process of implementing sustainable small business lending. They put more emphasis on sustainability risks than on the transformation of the business model among small businesses. Sustainable relationship lending has some relevance in creating sustainability-related soft information, although respective hard information is preferred by banks. Banks and policymakers can use the findings to better apply sustainable small business lending to sustainability and resilience efforts.

How good are banks’ forecasts?

We analyse the financial forecasts small and medium-sized German banks provided in several waves of a quantitative survey, called LIRES, and compare them with the results the banks actually realized. Based on this unique data set, we find that the predictions are relevant, especially concerning the net interest income for the next year, and persistent, but neither unbiased nor rational. We also find slight evidence for a positive relationship between planning and performance, i.e. banks whose predictions are more accurate tend to have a higher return on assets. Looking at the forecasts made just before the end of the low-interest rate environment, we observe that the explanatory power of predictions went down.

Who Can Tell Which Banks Will Fail?

Abstract We study the run on the German banking system in 1931 to understand whether depositors anticipate which banks will fail in a major financial crisis. We find that deposits decline by around 20% during the run. There is an equal outflow of retail and nonfinancial wholesale deposits from both failing and surviving banks. In contrast, we find that interbank deposits almost exclusively decline for failing banks. Our evidence suggests that banks are better informed about which fellow banks will fail. In turn, banks being informed allows the interbank market to continue providing liquidity even during times of severe financial distress.

No need to worry? Estimating the exposure of the German banking sector to climate-related transition risks

ABSTRACT Climate change poses several risks to the value of financial assets and financial stability. The study conducted in this paper focuses on the German banking sector and estimates its exposure to climate risks arising from a transition to a carbon-neutral economy. Our analysis identifies the energy, transportation, and manufacturing sectors as the most sensitive to transition risks. It shows that the German banking sector's direct exposure to climate transition risks is non-negligible. Moreover, it indicates that an amplified exposure to transition risks characterizes large private banks. These findings are comparable to other countries exposures and relevant to financial supervision and regulation, calling for increased engagement to assess, measure, and manage climate-related financial risks.

Bank’s strategic interaction, adverse price dynamics and systemic liquidity risk

AbstractWhen a widespread funding shock hits the banking system, banks may engage in strategic behaviour to deal with funding shortages by a pre-emptive disposal of assets. Alternatively, they may adopt a more cautious strategy to mitigate price reactions, thereby distributing the assets sales into smaller portions over time. We model banks’ optimal behaviour using standard optimisation techniques and show that an equilibrium always exits in a stylised setting. A numerical analysis to approximate the equilibrium supplements the theoretical part. The implementation delivers two liquidity measures for the German banking system: the Systemic Liquidity Buffer and the Systemic Liquidity Shortfall. These measures are more informative about systemic liquidity risk than regulatory liquidity measures, such as the LCR, because they model adverse, nonlinear price dynamics in a more realistic way. Our approach is applied to different stress scenarios.

Determinants of Net Transactions in TARGET2 of European Banks Based on Micro-data

AbstractThis paper examines German and foreign bank factors that can explain net flows of cross-border central bank liquidity between Germany and the rest of the euro area. Using data from the German component of Eurosystem’s real-time gross settlement system TARGET2 and BankFocus for the period between 2009 and 2021, we provide empirical evidence that only few balance sheet items and profit and loss accounts affect net flows with Germany. We control for bilateral bank-specific relationships and time-varying macroeconomic country effects in our regressions. In general, German bank factors seem to be more important than characteristics of foreign banks. A German bank that exhibits relatively high claims against central banks seems to attract less additional central bank liquidity from abroad than a German bank with fewer existing central bank claims. Net claims against central banks, which also control for liabilities, have no effect on net transactions in TARGET2. However, higher overall liquidity of a German credit institution corresponds to additional net inflows. Foreign bank factors only matter for central bank payments and intragroup payments. We also document heterogeneities across different types of transactions which influence the German TARGET2 balance. While customer payments, interbank payments and central bank payments have increased net flows to Germany in sum, intragroup payments and ancillary systems’ transactions have led to net outflows.

The impact of natural disasters on banks’ impairment flow – Evidence from Germany

Climate change causes natural disasters to occur at higher frequency and increased severity. Using a unique dataset on German banks, this paper explores how regionally less diversified banks in Germany adjusted their loan loss provisioning following the severe summer flood of 2013, which affected widespread regions mostly in Eastern Germany. The analysis uses a difference-in-differences estimation with banks being allocated to the treatment and control group based on the region of their primary operational activities. This paper yields various results: German savings and cooperative banks located in the affected regions experienced a significantly higher, but ephemeral, impairment flow in the years following the flood. Impairments were mostly driven by corporate loans concentrated in specific sectors, such as agriculture and manufacturing, and to some extent by retail mortgage loans. The results are robust to various model specifications.

Centralized and decentralized lending: Implications of consolidation in the German banking industry

This paper addresses the implications of consolidation in the German banking industry regarding the operation of savings banks. Savings banks are one of the pillars of Germany’s banking system and the main providers of loans to small and medium firms that, in turn, are the predominant drivers of the economy. We develop a theoretical model showing that, by changing the organizational structure of savings banks from decentralized decision making (loan approval made by local officers) to centralized (loan approval at the headquarters), consolidation of the banking industry might lead financial institutions to ration credit in situations where such outcome would be unwarranted. The cause of this result is that delegated authority (decentralized structure) can make use of soft-information which otherwise would be neglected under a hierarchical arrangement (centralized structure).

The future of banking: What are the actual barriers to bank digitalization?

The banking sector must confront challenges arising from globalization, the demand for new business models (BMs), increasing regulation, and ever-advancing digitalization. In this context, innovative competitors, namely FinTechs, are challenging banks and forcing them to rethink existing strategies and structures. In particular, the digital transformation of BMs that have been in place for decades represents a major challenge for companies and their executives. In this article, 407 German bank representatives were surveyed to identify, quantify, and analyze implementation barriers in the context of bank digitalization from a decision-maker’s perspective. By applying structural equation modeling, the authors quantified a variety of barriers and tested their influence on the degree of digitalization at banks. The study uncovered structural relationships between barriers expressed as observed variables— personal involvement, strategic corporate management, technology and regulation, and employees—and the degree of digitalization as a latent variable of banks. The findings increase bank practitioners’ understanding and awareness of barriers to digitalization and contribute to the field of bank digitalization. JEL Classification: G21, M1, O33

Does Greater Transparency Discipline the Loan Loss Provisioning of Privately Held Banks?

Whether transparency helps or hurts the stability of the financial system is an unresolved question. Recent trends have seen a decline in disclosure requirements especially for small and privately held banks. To assess the consequences of such regulations, we investigate the relationship between the transparency of loan loss provision disclosures and the provisioning practices of privately held banks. We study a unique change in disclosure regulation under German banking law which introduces mandatory disclosures of loan loss provisions. Using proprietary data provided by the national supervisor, we are able to observe provisioning practices before and after disclosure becomes mandatory. Our findings suggest that bank managers use loan loss provisions to a lesser extent for income smoothing once they are required to disclose their accounting choice. At the same time, provisions become timelier and loan portfolio quality improves. The change comes in the absence of capital market pressure and highlights the role of depositors and public pressure in the monitoring and disciplining of bank managers. Overall, these findings support the view that bank transparency helps establish financial stability.

Latin American Banks and Euromarkets: A View on the Process of Early Bank Globalization from the Periphery

Abstract Global banks and interconnected national banking sectors have been a main characteristic of the modern international financial systems over the last half century. After a sluggish wake up in the early postwar years, international banking took off in the 1970s as the Euromarkets gained traction and strongly developed in the lead up to the international debt crisis of 1982. This article examines the birth of bank globalization in Latin America, a region of the developing world at the centre of global finance and Euromarket developments during this period. It shows that, like their counterparts in industrial countries, leading banking institutions from the region also went international, expanding their presence overseas and their participation in the Euromarkets. The world leading financial centres of London and New York were the main destinations, but they also settled in offshore centres in the Caribbean and other US financial districts from where they conducted international business on their own or in collaboration with other banks. The presence in Germany along with the joint business between Latin American and German banks in the Euromarkets are explored as well. While assessing the extent and scope of early Latin American bank globalization for the first time, the article also provides insights on the evolution and changing nature of this process over the following period.

A Lost Game of Bank Bargains: West Germany and International Banking Regulation between Bretton Woods and Basel I (1972–1988)

Abstract Current theories of financial regulation suggest expanding rules-based formal state intervention to promote international banking stability. Such policy solutions should then be global in scope. This article instead argues that principles-based informal co- and self-regulation through domestic (gentlemen’s) agreements underpinned West German bank internationalisation until the 1980s. The analytic narrative approach allows the tracing of the social dynamics of the German politics of regulation, drawing on unused primary sources: Coalitions between the German regulating and regulated actors were bolstered by a liberal domestic framework and bespoke national policies. In contrast, regulatory harmonisation through international prudential standards came with high domestic adjustment costs for the German banking sector. Thus, domestic makeshift solutions to deal with and internalise cross-border financial risks proved most workable.

Der Euromarkt und die Internationalisierung der deutschen Banken

Abstract The tax exemption of interest revenues and the high level of professional secrecy were the unique selling points of Luxembourg for the German banking community. From the 1960s to the 1990s, they were the main causes for the rise of Luxembourg to one of the biggest euromarket places. The government of Luxembourg used these institutional factors to foster and accelerate the economic transformation from an industrial to a post-industrial country. The German banks did not reduce or even discontinue their presence in Luxembourg after the end of tax exemption and strict banking secrecy. Instead, they specialized on syndicated loans, treasury functions and Private Wealth Management for wealthy clients.

Does culture matter? Corporate reputation and sustainable satisfaction in the Chinese and German banking sector

AbstractCorporate reputation is important for all types of banks across the world, despite these countries differing culturally. Building on an extended corporate reputation model, we identify the key drivers of customer-based reputation and sustainable customer satisfaction in two culturally different countries, namely China and Germany. We also consider two reputation dimensions—perceived competence and likeability—and their effects on the target construct. Empirical data from 625 German and 734 Chinese commercial bank customers allow us to estimate the corporate reputation model with the partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) method, and by substantiating the relationships by means of a necessary condition analysis (NCA) and a predictive power analysis. By comparing the two countries’ results, we identify their cultural differences. Overall, we confirm the model’s relevance for the two cultures, finding that banks’ perceived attractiveness is the most important driver of both cultures’ customer-perceived bank reputation. By means of an importance-performance map analysis, we identify a large overlap between the two cultures’ set of important constructs, likeability’s much greater importance in Germany, and the perceived quality construct’s relevance in both countries. We contribute to research and scientific knowledge about corporate reputation models by identifying the similarities in and differences between two countries’ markets with respect to the banking sector, all of which have implications for international banks’ management.

Deutsche Banken auf dem Weg in die zweite Globalisierung

Abstract This article introduces the problematic situation of the great German banks and some non-German banks during the so-called second globalization since the 1970s. It formulates the questions that should be answered in the following contributions, each for a particular bank or group of banks. The most important overarching questions are firstly, to what extent banks were the driving force in the interconnectedness of cross-border money and capital flows and, secondly, to what extent they acted as triggers of the severe financial and/or sovereign debt crises during the last half century.

John Maynard Keynes Narrates the Great Depression: His Reports to the Philips Electronics Firm

In October 1929, the Dutch electronics firm Philips approached John Maynatd Keynes to write confidential reports on the state of the British and world economies, which he did from January 1930 to November 1934, at first monthly and then quarterly. These substantial reports (Keynes’s November 1931 report was twelve typed pages) show Keynes narrating the Great Depression in real time, as the world went through the US slowdown after the Wall Street crash, the Credit-Anstalt collapse in Austria, the German banking crisis (summer 1931), Britain’s departure from the gold exchange standard in August and September 1931, the US banking crisis leading to the Bank Holiday of March 1933, the London Economic Conference of 1933, and the coming of the New Deal. This series of reports has not been discussed in the literature, though the reports and surrounding correspondence are in the Chadwyck-Healey microfilm edition of the Keynes Papers. We examine Keynes’s account of the unfolding events of the early 1930s, his insistence that the crisis would be more severe and long-lasting than most observers predicted, and his changing position on whether monetary policy would be sufficient to promote recovery and relate his reading of contemporary events to his theoretical development.

Effect of introduction of German and Hungarian bank levies on banks’ risk-taking behavior

Policymakers introduce bank levies (BLs) to reduce the probability of crises. In this study, we evaluate the effects of the Hungarian and German BLs implemented in 2010 and 2011, respectively, on the banks’ risk-taking behavior. Our analysis compares two completely different BL designs. The German BL is designed to increase as banks’ total liabilities increase, while the Hungarian BL is assessed on total assets. The results unambiguously demonstrate that a BL on assets increases banks’ credit risk. The results of analyzing the influence that introducing BLs has had on the German banking sector demonstrate that BL on liabilities decreases banks’ credit risk. An improved understanding of the impact of regulation on the risky activity of EU banks is very important for a wide range of financial market participants, including borrowers, shareholders regulators and supervisors, especially during turbulent times caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian war in Ukraine.

Hot money inflows and bank risk‐taking: Germany from the 1920s to the Great Depression

AbstractThis paper explores the origins of German banks’ risk‐taking in the years preceding the 1931 crisis. The 1920s were marked by a large and prolonged increase in capital flows into Germany, chiefly from the United States and the United Kingdom. This coincided, at the individual bank level, with a rise in leverage and a fall in liquidity. We examine possible connections between the two phenomena. Our analysis is based on a combination of historiographical work and statistical modelling based on a newly hand‐collected bimonthly dataset on German reporting banks from 1925 to 1935. Bank by bank we examine the effects of foreign inflows on decisions related to leverage, lending, and liquidity. The Dawes Plan of 1924 and the relative absence of a too‐big‐to‐fail (TBTF) environment allow us to mitigate endogeneity concerns. We suggest that while capital inflows did not seem to impact banks’ liquidity decisions, their impact on leverage was non‐negligeable.

Challenges of Working from Home in Software Development During Covid-19 Lockdowns

The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020/2021/2022 and the resulting lockdowns forced many companies to switch to working from home, swiftly, on a large scale, and without preparation. This situation created unique challenges for software development, where individual software professionals had to shift instantly from working together at a physical venue to working remotely from home. Our research questions focus on the challenges of software professionals who work from home due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which we studied empirically at a German bank. We conducted a case study employing a mixed methods approach. We aimed to cover both the breadth of challenges via a quantitative survey, as well as a deeper understanding of these challenges via the follow-up qualitative analysis of 15 semi-structured interviews. In this article, we present the key impediments employees faced during the crisis, as well as their similarities and differences to the known challenges in distributed software development (DSD). We also analyze the employees’ job satisfaction and how the identified challenges impact job satisfaction. In our study, we focus on challenges in communication, collaboration, tooling, and management. The findings of the study provide insights into this emerging topic of high industry relevance. At the same time, the study contributes to the existing academic research on work from home and on the COVID-19 pandemic aftermath.

The development of an insolvency privilegle for derivatives in German law

The article outlines the development of insolvency privilege with respect to derivatives under German law in its historical perspective. It traces the evolution of special privilege from the moment when it was first announced in the German insolvency statute (Insolvenzordnung) and came into force on August 1, 1994, up to the moment when legislative provisions securing the functioning of derivatives in insolvency context were amended in response to the 2016 Federal Court of Justice Verdict. This court ruling ended the long-standing consensus on “friendliness” of the German insolvency law to derivatives and other financial transactions. German highest court concluded that contractual clauses on the termination of obligations under derivative contracts in the event of bankruptcy are invalid unless their legal result is identical to the one prescribed by law. This court decision created significant legal uncertainty for recognition of claims under derivative transactions and directly influenced the use of standard master agreement for over-the-counter derivatives. Drafted under the auspices of the German Banking Union (GBU), an organization representing the interests of German financial institutions, German Master Agreement for Financial Derivatives Transactions ( Deutscher Rahmenvertrag fur Finanztermingeschäfte ) provided a contractual framework for the relevant market, and it came under significant pressure. Overall, German insolvency rules were significantly enforced to achieve the enforceability of close-out netting thus expanding the insolvency privilege for derivative transactions.