Geopolitical Realignment Research Articles

Trade sanctions and Global Value Chains: A China-South Africa perspective in the age of sanctions

China has been an important trade partner for many African countries, and in particular for South Africa, whose trade volume with China has increased significantly over the past decades. Changes of global trade and Global Value Chains (GVCs) dynamics as response of increasing trade sanctions bring substantial economic challenges for both countries directly involved and countries not directly involved by sanctions. On the one hand, trade sanctions have direct effects on sanctioned countries. On the other, sanctions can have significant indirect effects on countries not involved, as a consequence of trade diversion, changes in comparative advantages, and geopolitical realignment. The paper provides an empirical assessment of Global Value Chains’ re-organization by China and African countries in the age of trade sanctions. It explores and quantifies the intertwined relationship between trade sanctions, GVCs participation, and Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), with a focus on the dyad China-South Africa in a comparative perspective vis-á-vis other Chinese trade partners. The analysis is based on a purpose-built data set covering GVCs participation indexes on 66 origin and destination countries for 68 industries (ISIC Rev.4) over the period 2005-2018. A simplified evolutionary model shows how the indirect effect of sanctions on forward GVCs could be positive and sizable, the mechanism being the displacement of (heterogeneous) inefficient firms with (heterogeneous) more efficient ones; while the indirect effect of sanctions on backward GVCs is indeterminate. By zooming onto the China-South Africa relations, the paper sheds new light on the consequences of sanctions, as perceived from both buyer’s (backward) and seller’s (forward) perspective, in a so-called South-South trade partnership.

The EU and the Abraham Accords: From Scepticism to Engagement

The Abraham accords signed in Washington in September 2020, a series of joint normalization statements between Israel the UAE and Bahrain followed by Morocco in December 2020, were a game changer in the Middle East. Those Accords provide the pathway to the end of the Arab Israeli conflict and a future of peace, tolerance and opportunity in the Middle East and around the world. Those accords proved that there is a new way for negotiations in the Middle East. One could have been surprised that the EU was not engaged in the Accords when signed. The fact that Europeans believe in the two-state solution as the only solution and the fact that the American President Donald Trump was behind the Accords made Europe skeptical to the Accords. But reality made the difference: The war in Ukraine brought its challenges and Iran’s interference in the conflict (supplying drones to Russian’s army) provoked a real concern in Europe. The Iranian nuclear program seemed again a threat to the west and not only to Israel and Gulf countries. conflict management played a role. This paper depicts how Europe went from skepticism to engagement concerning the Abraham Accords. Geo-political interests were clear: geopolitical realignment, a great potential for Africa and energy and food supply potential in connection to those Accords. Furthermore, cooperation as well as development in foreign affairs played a role in Europeans’ choice. Keywords: Abraham Accords, Israeli-Arab conflict, cooperation, international relations

A Model for International Marketing and Recruitment in Emerging Markets: Factors Influencing Thai Students’ Decision to Enrol at a Regional University

The imperative of revitalising international student recruitment post-COVID-19 pandemic amid geopolitical realignments has brought Australian universities to the forefront of strategic marketing considerations. Reassessment of conventional markets and strategies has become critical in sustaining and enhancing competitiveness of these institutions in the global education landscape. This study aims to investigate marketing and recruitment factors, specifically examining their influence on Thai students’ decision to enrol at a regional Australian university. The research approach involved administering a survey of Thai students and recent alumni of regional Australian universities. A principal component analysis (PCA)revealed a multidimensional structure of eight factors. According to the findings, Thai students’ decision to enrol was influenced by agents, post-study migration opportunities and country-specific resources. However, due to the perceived low return on investment and delayed enrolment outcomes, regional universities are not investing sufficiently in Thailand. Implications for marketing and recruitment initiatives are discussed.

The Russian War Against Ukraine and Its Implications for the Future of Liberal Interventionism

The Russian war against Ukraine has already had crucial implications for the future of liberal interventionism. Drawing on current debates in IR about the transformation of the global world order, the article outlines how processes of global reordering affect (liberal) interventionism at different scales. The article argues that what has become known as the liberal international order is in retreat, at the expense of liberal peace-oriented international interventions. At the same time, current geopolitical realignments appear to be dividing the world into new spheres of influence, pitting democracies against autocracies at the global level and within regional conflicts. However, when it comes to security interventions and peacekeeping, the emerging realities on the ground, where a growing number of actors with different agendas interact, are more complex than simplistic world-order narratives suggest. Using the cases of international peacekeeping and security assistance as examples, the article shows that in some current international intervention sites, the emerging “multi-order world” is characterised by complicated constellations of parallel external assistance offers and rapid shifts in allegiances that do not necessarily follow clear divisions between “authoritarian” and “liberal” forms of assistance. The article therefore does not confirm expectations of the emergence of a “new Cold War” and a new round of ideological competition between international systems.

RETHINKING OF SOUTH ASIAN NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION IN THE CONTEXT OF MIDDLE EAST CRISIS

This article explores the complex link between South Asian nuclear capabilities and the current Middle East conflicts, offering a first analysis of how they interact. South Asia has been dealing with a fragile nuclear balance ever since India and Pakistan conducted nuclear tests in 1998. This delicate balance has been mostly driven by historical animosities and regional geopolitical conflicts. Nonetheless, the paper makes the case that a careful reevaluation of the implications of South Asian nuclear capabilities is required due to the complexity brought about by the Middle East crises, which are characterised by sectarian wars, geopolitical realignments, and external interventions. The historical consequences of South Asian nuclear developments are first highlighted in the research, with a focus on how deterrence shaped India and Pakistan's nuclear postures. The influence of Middle East crises on South Asian strategic planning and threat assessments is then examined in the paper, taking into account the complex nature of these assessments. In the context of diplomatic endeavours and possible sanctions during Middle East conflicts, the involvement of key international powers including the United States, Russia, China, and European nations is examined. The article also discusses issues with nuclear non-proliferation in South Asia and beyond the world. It highlights how India and Pakistan are subjected to increased scrutiny amid the Middle East crises and the possible repercussions for global non-proliferation efforts. The necessity for greater international cooperation on non-proliferation measures is emphasised, as are the diplomatic imperatives for South Asian nations to address concerns and uphold transparency. The paper finds this by analysing the economic implications of the Middle East's strategic importance as an "energy hub." It examines the possible effects on the economies of South Asia, with a focus on energy security and resilience, and recommends proactive steps to reduce economic risk, such as diversifying energy sources and investing in renewable technology.

Hrvatski jezik u normama Međunarodne organizacije za normizaciju

In the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) system, language codes and language names are defined within the ISO 639 standard. At present, the standard consists of five parts (ISO 639 1-5). Infoterm (International Information Centre for Terminology), an organization founded by UNESCO, is responsible for ISO 639-1. ISO 639-2 is the responsibility of the Registration Authority of the Library of Congress in Washington, and ISO 639-3 is the responsibility of SIL International from Dallas, also known as the Summer Institute of Linguistics. SIL International declares certain dialects and subsystems of the Croatian language to be separate Slavic languages, supposedly independent of Croatian, and reduces the scope of the Croatian language, as an individual language, merely to the Štokavian dialect of the modern Croatian standard language. At the same time, it constructs „the Serbo-Croatian macro language“ and encourages the return of this phantom creation as an entity. This paper examines the activities of the SIL International and its approach to the Croatian language. The goal is to identify problematic points and propose scientifically based solutions for them. The paper does not question whether the actions of SIL International are the result of miscommunication and coincidence, or whether they are perhaps a part of a planned action that aims to promote a new geopolitical realignment on our part of the European map, with a Serbo-Croatian shadow over it.

Egypt’s Geopolitical Alignment via the Digital Humanities

The Egyptian civilization is a monumental pillar of the modern history of humanity and contributes greatly to the increase of current knowledge. Together, Ali M. Yahya’s Egypt and the Soviet Union, 1955-1972 (1989) and Rami Ginat’s The Soviet Union and Egypt, 1945-1955 (1993) established a chronology which enable a discussion of this influential Arab country’s past in terms of its present; this intervention tests a variety of methods from the “digital humanities” as an e-learning technology. Clearly, the events which occurred during 1955 were sufficient to accomplish Egypt’s geopolitical alignment; seeking to explore Yahya’s and Ginat’s established chronology, this intervention uses new research and analytic techniques in an attempt to identify specific aspects of historical experience of Egypt’s geopolitical realignment during the pivotal year 1955, which (among other developments) introduced the Aswan High Dam as a new focal point for water issues, regional rivalries and conflicts over the control of natural resources.

Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Hopes of European Union Accession: A Safeguard against the Country’s Implosion?

The prospect of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s accession to the European Union encapsulates a pivotal chapter in the nation’s trajectory. As the country navigates the intricate path toward EU membership, it faces a myriad of challenges and opportunities that extend beyond mere geopolitical realignment. This journey involves addressing complex issues such as political stability, governance reforms, rule of law and economic development. The significance of this process lies not only in its potential to reshape Bosnia and Herzegovina’s political and economic landscape but also in the broader implications for regional stability and the consolidation of European values in the Western Balkans. In this context, the journey towards EU accession for Bosnia and Herzegovina is a multifaceted endeavour, reflecting both the aspirations and complexities inherent in the pursuit of a European future.

Introduction: The Cultures Of Global Post/Socialisms

ABSTRACT The introduction to this special issue outlines comparative approaches to cultural representations of post/socialism in order to move beyond the term’s association with the Soviet Union, the unevenly aligned or nonaligned nations in Central/Eastern Europe (CEE), and the period between 1917 and 1990. The histories and afterlives of state socialisms, and socialist globalization in Asia, Africa, Europe, and the Americas, are at the center of ongoing geopolitical realignments toward a multipolar world. The introduction explores the framing of these shifts as a “new Cold War” between the West and the nations of China and Russia, whose autocratic regimes are associated with remnants of totalitarian state socialism. Like the official rhetoric of many postsocialist nations, these discourses dismiss the far more diverse and progressive legacies of socialism. The introduction inserts cultural representations of Left Internationalism, the Non-Aligned Movement, socialist reformism, and committed art into the fields of comparative literature and media studies to contribute to theories of ongoing transformations and to provide alternative imaginaries for more equitable futures.

Regional political paradigm shift: Challenges and opportunities for Pakistan

With the dawn of the 21st century, a global political paradigmatic shift was witnessed; no longer was Europe considered to be the focal point of geopolitics. Now, all eyes were on the Asian continent; with the brewing Afghan conflict, the arguably rising global hegemony contender China, the convoluted Iranian crisis, rapidly rising economic powers in South-East Asia, the key strategic power of the Indian Ocean and India and, amidst all, the dramatically increasing footprint of the United States. Consequently, as states with opposing interests were ferociously competing for regional dominance, a great degree of political polarization was induced in the regional geopolitical structure, which in turn forced political realignments. Old foes became friends (India and the United States), whereas decades old alliances broke (Pakistan and the United States). This dramatic regional political paradigm shift has forced Pakistan to completely transform its foreign policy, from a pro-western to an eastern/regional approach. This article explores how the changing regional geopolitical dynamics is affecting Pakistan’s foreign policy. It does so by critically analysing the geopolitical realignments in the region and the myriad regional conflicts/crises, while predominantly highlighting their implications for Pakistan. A mix-approach based on descriptive and critical analytical qualitative research methods has been adopted to conduct this study.

Putin's Invasion of Ukraine and Disintegration of States

Excerpt: "As of February 24, 2022, the history of Eastern Europe and perhaps the world is changing like it did during the implosion of communism in Eastern Europe in the late 1980s. The fall of communism brought a major geopolitical realignment. It is too early to know what catastrophes Vladimir Putin’s attempt to reverse that realignment will bring. After 1990 several of the countries of Eastern Europe faced fragmentation. During the decade of the 1990s, Yugoslavia broke up into seven states in an eruption of war which was replete with genocides. Two other countries also partitioned, but in contrast to Yugoslavia, they did so seemingly peacefully. Czech and Slovak Republics emerged out of Czechoslovakia in a peaceful partition. Much to the relief of an apprehensive population and the wider world, the largest country in the world, U.S.S.R. also dissolved in a seemingly orderly manner. Many were celebrating that the dissolution of these federal states brought a fulfillment of a longing for independence. Others experienced a loss of the advantages that a larger country provided. The implosion of communism was particularly liberating for religious people and communities as it promised a transition from persecution and repression to opportunities for renewal and restoration."

Responding to the crisis in United Nations peace operations

ABSTRACT This special forum discusses the future trajectory of UN peace operations at a time many stakeholders and analysts consider to be one of crisis, contestation, or at the very least transition. The UN is facing difficulties in responding effectively to many of the world’s worst recent conflicts, even where it has (or until recently had) operations. Even before COVID-19, the blue helmets were facing a period of serious retrenchment and budgetary constraints. Mission mandates have experienced a transformation, from the recent “robust turn” to the incorporation of stabilization mandates grounded in counterinsurgency/counterterrorism doctrine. The crossroads of economic downturn, geopolitical realignment and continuous adaptation of peacekeeping practice provides the backdrop of the contributions to the special forum that follows. The analyses presented here not only accompany the ongoing evolution of the nexus of issues that constitute peacekeeping studies but also reflect the breadth and depth of the extensive attendant academic literature.

The captive audience and Albanian films in Mao’s China

The ironclad alliance between the People’s Republic of China and Albania during the 1960s is often taken as the unquestioned starting point of transnational film exchanges between the two fraternal socialist states. This article delineates the presence of Albanian cinema in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) from 1949 to 1976, when geopolitical realignments reconfigured the socialist camp, with special attention to Albanian cinema’s position within the filmscape in Mao’s China. Drawing on official news reports, movie reviews and recently published personal reminiscences, and employing the lens of the captive audience, it teases out the multifaceted reception of Albanian films, including the types of engagement that deviate from and challenge the then-prevailing revolutionary discourses. The study thus helps to demystify a reductive understanding of the socio-political significance of Albanian cinema in China.

Internationalising Colonial Knowledge. Edgar Barton Worthington and the Scientific Council for Africa, 1949–1956

ABSTRACT By focusing on the trajectory of the British biologist Edgar Barton Worthington (1905–2001), this article examines the history of the Scientific Council for Africa South of Sahara (SCA), an intercolonial organisation created in 1950 that aimed at fostering scientific collaboration between European colonial administrations, both in the metropoles and on the African continent. Drawing on the private papers of Worthington, who actively worked for SCA up until 1956, it shows how colonial officials and scholars attempted to establish a common research programme in many fields of natural and social sciences, in connection with the post-war developmentalist agenda. The article also highlights the struggle that arose around the control over knowledge about African societies and natural resources, as well as how scientific ‘colonial circuits’ were readapted to face a new global context shaped by decolonising pressures and geopolitical realignments.

The Race for Critical Minerals in an Era of Geopolitical Realignments

ABSTRACT The decarbonisation of the global economy in response to the climate crisis and the fourth industrial revolution, featuring artificial intelligence (AI) and 5G networks (massively accelerated in response to the coronavirus pandemic), has triggered a race to secure uninterrupted access to critical raw minerals (CRMs) that are indispensable inputs for high-technology applications. Moreover, China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which unites Eurasia and Africa and loops in South America into a seamless space of trade, infrastructure and digital connectivity, challenges the dominance of traditional industrial powers (the United States, the European Union and Japan) and requires critical minerals. Rare earths, lithium and cobalt – among the most critical of the CRMs – are found in high geographic concentration, creating hotspots of contention, especially in unstable parts of the world. As economic transformations accelerate, securing access to these materials will both impact and help shape geopolitics in the years to come.

The contradictory politics of the right to travel: mobilities, borders & tourism

ABSTRACTThe freedom of movement and right to travel are intrinsic to the growth of international tourism. Notwithstanding the inchoate nature of the right to tourism, the entitlement to travel and to pursue tourism without hindrance is firmly established in advanced capitalist societies. Moreover, the right to tourism has been recently enshrined in the 2017 United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) Framework Convention on Tourism Ethics. Tourists’ ease of mobility contrasts starkly with the movements of less privileged forms of mobility that may be variously constrained by racism, xenophobia and restrictive border controls. This paper contends that rather than a mere reflection of accumulated political rights (citizenship), such unequal and differentiated mobilities are conditioned by a complex assemblage of discursive frameworks and structural forces that are played out in specific historical-geographic contexts. Accordingly, we argue that the rights associated with global tourism must be analysed in the context of the contradictory politics of global mobility, or indeed in terms of the ‘mobility crisis’. This ‘crisis’ is one that is rooted in and shaped by the cumulative legacy of past colonial orders, global capitalism and geopolitical realignments, in addition to multi-scalar systems of governance through which borders are constituted, managed and policed.

A Secret History of the Crash?

A new account of the 2008 crisis and the turbulent decade that followed shows how global capitalism's self-inflicted wounds accelerated major geopolitical realignments.

The Role of a Donor in an Emerging Power’s Foreign Policy

Since 2003, Brazil has been searching for efficient modalities directed at deepening ties with Latin American and African states, such as knowledge sharing and engaging in dialogue on alternative ways of tackling common development challenges. Considered by Brazilian policymakers to be expressions of solidarity diplomacy, these concepts and modalities are part of what has been coined Brazil’s “autonomy through diversification” strategy. Brazilian presidents Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Dilma Rousseff consecutively pursued geopolitical realignments focused on the creation of a multipolar world order with a strengthened, more visible position for Brazil, an emerging world power. This paper will examine the practical and theoretical implications of Brazil’s reconceptualization of its role as a donor of development aid, as well as donor-recipient relations as expressed in the two presidents’ official speeches, documents of the Brazilian Cooperation Agency, and COBRADI reports Furthermore, it will explore whether Brazil’s declared role as a development partner and its practices in the capacity thereof are consistent with the expectations of other significant development cooperation actors.

The “Ukrainian Crisis” and Geopolitical Realignment of Eurasia: Implications for the “Eurasian Initiative (EAI)”

This article focuses on the current arguments and geopolitical visions regarding the organizational shifts in Europe and the Eurasian region and the means for realization of these policies. It shows the responses of the major powers in Europe and Eurasia with regard to the “Ukrainian Crisis.” In this article also, analysis and comparison of the Eurasian strategy of China and Russia, which bear critical importance to geopolitical and geoeconomic considerations regarding the Korean Peninsula, is treated with significance along with the aforementioned issues. The article attempts to provide a short analysis of the implications of these pan-Eurasian strategic shifts on the Eurasian initiative of the Korean government. The concepts of Russia’s “Pivot to the East,” China’s “One Belt, One Road (OBOR),” and Korea’s “Eurasia Initiative” share a potential to stimulate the transition of the Asia-Pacific region from “the ocean of conflict” to “the ocean of peace.” However, in realizing these concepts, the relationship between Korea and the four powers (U.S.A./China/Russia/Japan) have a “strategic trilemma.” If the Eurasia Initiative can facilitate construction of the “continent of peace” in Eurasia, it will provide a vision and strategic opportunity to change the region form an “ocean of conflict” into an “ocean of peace.”

A Convergence of Crises: The Expansion of Slavery, Geopolitical Realignment, and Economic Depression in the Post-Napoleonic World

This article argues that the Missouri Crisis 1819–1821 was a consequence of growing concerns about geopolitical realignments in the post-Napoleonic world and the impending international recession. Scholars have typically explained the conflict over slavery’s expansion as the last convulsion of the first-party system, a reflection of budding humanitarian considerations, or as a product of the growing contradictions between slavery and freedom in an era of an emerging liberal capitalist ethos and a democratization of American politics. The central element of the northern restrictionist position, however, was that slavery’s expansion into the western territories would seriously impede the United States’ ability to compete economically and mobilize militarily in times of war. In light of persistent tensions with foreign powers, the perceived risk of renewed great power warfare, international markets glutted, and every branch of the economy paralyzed, restrictionists saw the halting slavery’s expansion as a necessary measure to save the federal republic.