Geomagnetic Field Disturbances Research Articles

Using Classification Methods in Forecasting the Level of Geomagnetic Field Disturbance Based on the Kp-Index

Using Classification Methods in Forecasting the Level of Geomagnetic Field Disturbance Based on the Kp-Index

Prediction of high latitude nightside Geomagnetic Field Disturbances (GGFDs) during the 9-March-2012 geomagnetic storm using Recurrent Neural Network (RNN)

Geomagnetically Induced currents (GICs) pose a potentially catastrophic threat to the safety and security of large-scale power distribution systems. Using a recurrent neural network, we predict high (≥60°) magnetic latitude (MLAT) and night side (06–18) magnetic local time (MLT) geomagnetic field disturbances (surface dBs/dt and vertical dBz/dt), the trigger of GICs, during a geomagnetic storms occurred on March 09, 2012. We use the high latitude geomagnetic field data from SuperMAG and the solar wind particle and magnetic field data from NASA-OMNIWeb. We divide the high latitude night side of Earth’s globe into multiple sectors and obtain a time series of maximum geomagnetic disturbances observed in each sector. We use the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) network technique sector by sector on both, the solar wind data and the sectored geomagnetic field disturbance (10° geomagnetic latitude, 1-hour MLT) time series obtained from SuperMAG. Each sector prediction is plotted on a polar map to reveal high latitude night side geomagnetic disturbance patterns. This high latitude nigh side model has great potential. With solar wind input at a Lagrangian-1 point, and geomagnetic field data from SuperMAG, it can predict the peak magnetic disturbance at any given sector for couple of hours in advance. Our machine learning techniques provide the best set of solar wind input that gives the best disturbance prediction. This paper presents a prototype of the global geomagnetic disturbance model with low-resolution spatial grids and a subset of potential solar wind input parameters. Once matured, the global magnetic disturbance model will be provided to the public.

Disturbances in solar wind plasma flow and geomagnetic field disturbances during the period of 2012-2020

Disturbances in solar wind plasma flow and geomagnetic field disturbances during the period of 2012-2020

Assessing the Solar Activity and Geomagnetic Disturbance during Minimum Phase of Solar Cycle 24 across the Globe.

Understanding solar activity and its implications on the Earth’s environment has become necessary. Most importantly, events that characterized the minimum phase of solar cycle 24 (2019) and geomagnetic disturbance experienced during this period calls for an assessment. To assess this, the study has therefore used INTERMAGNET data from geomagnetic stations across the globe during the solar minimum year of solar cycle 24. A total of nine geomagnetic stations data of five disturbed days in a month were used, and were averaged in a minute interval for year 2019. The stations were selected with reference to their geomagnetic locations (latitudes and longitudes) as well as analyzing their horizontal magnetic field (H-Component) from the X and Y component of the geomagnetic field to reveal the variance in the global pattern of solar variations. The seasonal variations were studied across various latitudes and longitudes to understand the impact of solar activities on the earth surface as a result of geomagnetic field disturbance on Earth’s magnetosphere at the end of cycle 24 (2019). The results of stations revealed ABK and DRV with 350nT and 150nT of H component respectively which are the highest while other stations have 60nT below. This study shows that low geomagnetic disturbance was witnessed during the end of the cycle due to the minimum solar activity which was as a result of low number of sunspot during this period.

Time Lags Between Ionospheric Scintillation Detection at Northern Auroral Latitudes and Onset of Geomagnetic Storms

AbstractIonospheric responses to geomagnetic storms can cause irregular plasma structures and scintillation of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals. In this paper, we investigate time lags between the detection of GNSS signal scintillation at northern hemisphere auroral latitudes and the onset of 15 geomagnetic storms that occurred in 2015–2017. The results show that the time lags between the detection of ground‐based GNSS scintillations and the observed sudden change in solar wind parameters are between tens of minutes and 15 hr. This time lag consists of two segments. The first segment is about 30–80 min, which is the lag between observed disturbances in the geomagnetic field and solar wind disturbances detected by orbiting spacecrafts around the L1 point. The second segment is between the observed GNSS signal scintillation and the storm sudden commencement (SSC). This second lag segment varies in the range of about 10–830 min and highly depends on the storm onset time and geomagnetic locations of GNSS signal propagation paths. Longer time lags over 450 min were observed with the signal ionospheric piercing point at 60–70° geomagnetic latitudes (MLAT) on the dayside, while shorter lags of 10∼450 min were observed with the signal IPPs at 68–81° MLAT and on the nightside at the time of SSC. The lag time variations can be explained by ionospheric irregularity production and transport processes associated with a variety of auroral and polar cap phenomena in response to solar wind coupling to the magnetosphere and ionosphere.

Роль геомагнитных возмущений в развитии окклюзионных поражений ретинальных вен (обзор литературы)

The review presents modern information on pathogenesis of retinal vein occlusions and risk factors for their formation. An in-depth analysis of role of external factors, among which influence of geomagnetic field and geomagnetic disturbances, has been carried out. The definition is given to such notions as magnetosensitivity, its pathogenetic mechanisms, and their role in formation of acute vascular events. Information about influence of geomagnetic disturbances on the formation of retinal vein occlusion is presented. Key words: geomagnetic disturbancies; magnetosensitivity; retinal vein occlusion.

Evidence for large disturbances of the Ediacaran geomagnetic field from West Africa

Constraining the paleogeography of the Ediacaran is crucial for understanding the extensive tectonic, biological and geochemical changes that occurred during that epoch. Paleomagnetism is an essential tool for reconstructing the Ediacaran paleogeography but it is complicated because the paleomagnetic data of that age display unusually fast and large directional oscillations. Two main competing hypotheses have been proposed: the occurrence of very fast True Polar Wander (TPW) episodes, which correspond to the motion of the planetary spin axis relative to the solid Earth, or strong geomagnetic field disturbances that could potentially be dominated by an equatorial dipole field. Their implications for paleogeographic reconstructions are radically different as TPW would result in a major latitudinal shift of continents of up to ∼ 90°. In this study, we focus on one rapid paleomagnetic change recorded in pyroclastic rocks of the Ouarzazate Group in the Anti-Atlas Belt (Morocco) that has been interpreted to reflect an exceptionally fast episode of True Polar Wander between ∼ 575 and 565 Ma. To further test this hypothesis, tight constraints on the rate of the paleomagnetic directional change are needed, as TPW is speed-limited by mantle viscosity. Here, we present high-resolution Chemical Abrasion Isotope-Dilution Thermal Ionization Mass Spectrometry (CA-ID-TIMS) U-Pb dates on zircons from seven pyroclastic levels distributed stratigraphically below, in between and above the horizons where the large paleomagnetic change is observed. Based on these new data, we estimate the associated lower bound rate of the apparent polar motion related to this abrupt paleomagnetic change to be 11.6°/Myrs [5.5 – 17.9]. This value is much higher than the TPW speed limit estimated from numerical simulations, suggesting that this large paleomagnetic change cannot be explained by TPW. It could rather be associated with intense perturbations of the Ediacaran geomagnetic field potentially oscillating from an axial to an equatorial dipole. The paleomagnetic pole that we interpret as referring to the axial dipole field would imply that West Africa was located at high latitude during the mid-Ediacaran.

Локальная диагностика наличия полярных сияний на основе интеллектуального анализа геомагнитных данных

Despite the existing variety of approaches to monitoring space weather and geophysical parameters in the auroral oval region, the issue of effective prediction and diagnostics of auroras as a special state of the upper ionosphere at high latitudes remains virtually unresolved.
 In this paper, we explore the possibility of local diagnostics of auroras through mining of geomagnetic data from ground-based sources. We assess the significance of indicative variables and their statistical relationship.
 So, for example, the application of Bayesian inference to the data from the Lovozero geophysical station for 2012–2020 has shown that the dependence of a posteriori probability of observing auroras in the optical range on the state of geomagnetic parameters is logarithmic, and the degree of its significance is inversely proportional to the discrepancy between empirical data and approximating function.
 The accuracy of the approach to diagnostics of aurora presence based on the random forest method is at least 86 % when using several local predictors and ~80 % when using several global geomagnetic activity indices characterizing the geomagnetic field disturbance in the auroral zone.
 In conclusion, we discuss promising ways to improve the quality metrics of diagnostic models and their scope.

Local diagnostics of aurora presence based on intelligent analysis of geomagnetic data

Despite the existing variety of approaches to monitoring space weather and geophysical parameters in the auroral oval region, the issue of effective prediction and diagnostics of auroras as a special state of the upper ionosphere at high latitudes remains virtually unresolved.
 In this paper, we explore the possibility of local diagnostics of auroras through mining of geomagnetic data from ground-based sources. We assess the significance of indicative variables and their statistical relationship.
 So, for example, the application of Bayesian inference to the data from the Lovozero geophysical station for 2012–2020 has shown that the dependence of a posteriori probability of observing auroras in the optical range on the state of geomagnetic parameters is logarithmic, and the degree of its significance is inversely proportional to the discrepancy between empirical data and approximating function.
 The accuracy of the approach to diagnostics of aurora presence based on the random forest method is at least 86 % when using several local predictors and ~80 % when using several global geomagnetic activity indices characterizing the geomagnetic field disturbance in the auroral zone.
 In conclusion, we discuss promising ways to improve the quality metrics of diagnostic models and their scope.

Влияние космической погоды на надежность функционирования транспортных систем на высоких широтах

The review offered for the first time in the Russian scientific literature is devoted to various aspects of the problem of the impact of space weather on ground transport systems. An analysis of available information indicates that space weather disturbances can affect rail infrastructure through both direct and indirect effects on system components. One of the main hazards is geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in grounded extended structures excited by the geomagnetic field disturbances. The telluric electric fields and currents associated with them can cause power outages and malfunctions in the railway automation track circuits. Indirect impact is possible through disturbances in the stable supply of electricity, disturbances in communication systems and in the appearance of positioning errors in global navigation satellite systems. The review provides information necessary for engineers of transport and energy systems about the main factors of space weather that could pose a threat to such systems. Examples of the influence of geomagnetic disturbances on the automatic signaling of the northern sections of Russian Railways are given. The prospects for monitoring space weather and the aurora oval for the needs of Russian Railways are discussed.

Global Electromagnetic Disturbances Caused by the Eruption of the Tonga Volcano on 15 January 2022

AbstractThe study is devoted to the analysis of geomagnetic field disturbances and the response of the Schumann resonance (SR) during the eruption of the Tonga volcano in 2022. The data on geomagnetic field variations at distances from 800 to 15,000 km from the volcano according to the INTERMAGNET network and parameters of SR signals recorded at Mikhnevo Observatory in Russia were used. The source of global geomagnetic disturbances are acoustic–gravity waves (AGWs), which caused changes in ionospheric conductivity, values of ionospheric currents, and the geomagnetic field. The propagation velocity of magnetic disturbances 263 ± 5 m/s, corresponding to the AGWs velocity, was determined and an independent estimate of the time of the eruption phase that caused the generation of the atmospheric wave (4:14 ± 10 UT) was obtained. A new method of processing the results of measurements of SR disturbance with a time resolution of 5 min instead of the usual 10–15 min allowed not only to detect but also to study this phenomenon in detail. The peculiarities of signals related to the number and energy of lightning discharges were revealed. Synchronous measurements of SR signals and geomagnetic field variations in a single observatory for the first time allowed to obtain an independent estimate of the eruption time and the electromagnetic disturbance propagation rate.

Geomagnetic Field Disturbance by an Acoustic-Gravity Wave Generated by Ionizing Radiation of Solar Flares

Geomagnetic Field Disturbance by an Acoustic-Gravity Wave Generated by Ionizing Radiation of Solar Flares

The Response of Geomagnetic Daily Variation and Ionospheric Currents to the Annular Solar Eclipse on 21 June 2020

AbstractIn this study, we examined the response of geomagnetic daily variation and ionospheric currents to the solar annular eclipse that passed through China at 10:00–17:30 LT on 21 June 2020. We utilized geomagnetic field data obtained from the Geomagnetic Network Center of China, Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration and International Real‐time Magnetic Observatory Network, which extend from middle latitudes to equatorial regions in China and surrounding areas. It is found that the eclipse obscuration reduces the intensity of geomagnetic daily variation at most stations as compared with the 5‐quiet‐day average. The response of geomagnetic daily variation to the solar eclipse depends on local time and latitude. In most shadowed areas of the eclipse, there is a reduction of northward (southward) component of the meridional magnetic daily field (ΔX) below (above) ∼30° magnetic latitudes. The solar eclipse can also induce a decrease of the zonal magnetic field variation (ΔY). Meanwhile, we observed that the solar eclipse reduces the intensity of vertical geomagnetic component (ΔZ) at the stations around the early afternoon aside the eclipse totality. In general, these geomagnetic responses imply that the solar eclipse can reduce the ionospheric solar quiet (Sq) current system. These ionospheric currents and ground geomagnetic field disturbances during the solar eclipse are also verified by a global physical model. The simulation demonstrates that the ionospheric currents in the southern hemisphere, where the solar eclipse does not cover, also have a weak response. Overall, the ionospheric current disturbance induced by the solar eclipse shows a counter‐Sq pattern.

Multi-Variate LSTM Prediction of Alaska Magnetometer Chain Utilizing a Coupled Model Approach

During periods of rapidly changing geomagnetic conditions electric fields form within the Earth’s surface and induce currents known as geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), which interact with unprotected electrical systems our society relies on. In this study, we train multi-variate Long-Short Term Memory neural networks to predict magnitude of north-south component of the geomagnetic field (|BN|) at multiple ground magnetometer stations across Alaska provided by the SuperMAG database with a future goal of predicting geomagnetic field disturbances. Each neural network is driven by solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field inputs from the NASA OMNI database spanning from 2000–2015 and is fine tuned for each station to maximize the effectiveness in predicting |BN|. The neural networks are then compared against multivariate linear regression models driven with the same inputs at each station using Heidke skill scores with thresholds at the 50, 75, 85, and 99 percentiles for |BN|. The neural network models show significant increases over the linear regression models for |BN| thresholds. We also calculate the Heidke skill scores for d|BN|/dt by deriving d|BN|/dt from |BN| predictions. However, neural network models do not show clear outperformance compared to the linear regression models. To retain the sign information and thus predict BN instead of |BN|, a secondary so-called polarity model is utilized. The polarity model is run in tandem with the neural networks predicting geomagnetic field in a coupled model approach and results in a high correlation between predicted and observed values for all stations. We find this model a promising starting point for a machine learned geomagnetic field model to be expanded upon through increased output time history and fast turnaround times.

Superposed Epoch Analyses of Geoelectric Field Disturbances in Japan in Response to Different Geomagnetic Activities

AbstractAn increase in geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) is an inevitable result of geomagnetic field disturbances, and is harmful to the power grid, in particular, at high latitudes. At mid and low latitudes, the amplitude of the GICs is, in general, small, but large‐amplitude GICs are often observed during magnetic storms. It is of importance to understand major characteristics and extreme values of GICs at mid and low latitudes. For the geoelectric field disturbances ΔE observed at Kakioka (27.8° geomagnetic latitude) in Japan in 1996–2004, we performed superposed epoch analyses with respect to three types of geomagnetic disturbances: (a) storm sudden commencements (SSCs)/sudden impulses (SIs), (b) main phase of magnetic storms, and (c) bay disturbances. It is shown that the SSCs/SIs and the main phase of the magnetic storms are equally important for causing large‐amplitude disturbances of ΔE at Kakioka. GICs are thought to be amplified when the SIs and/or the bay disturbances occur during the magnetic storms. The maximum value of ΔE tends to be correlated with the maximum value of ΔH during the three types of events, where ΔH is the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field. Assuming that a quasi‐linear relationship between the maximum ΔE and the maximum ΔH is valid, we estimated GICs at three substations in Japan for an extreme SSCs/SIs, and the extreme magnetic storms. This scheme could be applicable to estimate roughly the GICs against extreme events, and to forecast the maximum GICs in a real‐time manner.

Monitoring of Geomagnetic and Telluric Field Disturbances in the Russian Arctic

The influence of space factors on technological systems in the Arctic (power transmission lines, oil/gas pipelines) has become critically important. To examine in depth these effects, an archive of digital 1 min data from Soviet/Russian magnetic stations deployed along the Arctic coast was created, starting from 1983 to the present. All data from various sources were converted to daily files in standard IAGA-2002 format and supplemented with quick-look magnetograms. Some of these data are included already in the existing world magnetic field databases, but not all. Examples of disturbances known to excite intense geomagnetically induced currents in power transmission lines were presented: irregular Pi3 pulsations and magnetic perturbation events. The database was augmented with the global 3D model of the Earth’s conductivity structure. The given example showed how the combined usage of the geomagnetic field database and the conductivity model enables one to synthesize the geoelectric field response to geomagnetic variations, and to assess the distortions of the pipeline-soil potential. To determine regions most susceptible to geomagnetic hazard, a map with normalized telluric fields was created for a uniform sinusoidally varying magnetic disturbance. This map showed that the largest electrotelluric potentials and field are induced in regions with a high resistivity (e.g., Kola Peninsula and Ural Mountains). This database can be also a useful support for space missions in the magnetosphere. The database is publicly available on the anonymous FTP site.

Numerical models for analysis and adjustment of magnetic field in medical centers. I. Simulation of geomagnetic field disturbances

The study investigates possible disturbances of the Earth’s geomagnetic field associated with ferromagnetic structures of clinical buildings. An original methodology has been applied for 3D field mapping of hospital areas in the Senegalese Radiotherapy (RT) Centre. The RT unit will be located in a bunker with thick steel walls to ensure safety of patients and staff. Steel reinforcement will provide the shielding effect lowering the field level in the therapy room. A detailed numerical model has been created to simulate an expected field map in the RT bunker. The model reflects the actual geometry and reinforcement pattern of the building as well as adopted national standards for hypomagnetic field environment. The field maps generated with the EM codes KLONDIKE and KOMPOT form a basis for validation in comparative computations with the other codes (COMSOL Multiphysics, etc).

A statistical analysis of the relationship between Pc4 and Pc5 ULF waves, solar winds and geomagnetic storms for predicting earthquake precursor signatures in low latitude regions

Short-term earthquake forecasting is impossible due to the seismometer’s limited sensitivity in detecting the generation of micro-fractures prior to an earthquake. Therefore, there is a strong desire for a non-seismological approach, and one of the most established methods is geomagnetic disturbance observation. Previous research shows that disturbances in the ground geomagnetic field serves as a potential precursor for earthquake studies. It was discovered that electromagnetic waves (EM) in the Ultra-Low Frequency (ULF) range are a promising tool for studying the seismomagnetic effect of earthquake precursors. This study used a multiple regression approach to analyse the preliminary study on the relationship between Pc4 (6.7-22 mHz) and Pc5 (1.7-6.7 mHz) ULF magnetic pulsations, solar wind parameters and geomagnetic indices for predicting earthquake precursor signatures in low latitude regions. The ground geomagnetic field was collected from Davao station (7.00° N, 125.40° E), in the Philippines, which experiences nearby earthquake events (Magnitude <5.0, depth <100 km and epicentre distance from magnetometer station <100 km). The Pc5 ULF waves show the highest variance with four solar wind parameters, namely SWS, SWP, IMF-Bz, SIE and geomagnetic indices (SYM/H) prior to an earthquake event based on the regression model value of R2 = 0.1510. Furthermore, the IMF-Bz, SWS, SWP, SWE, and SYM/H were found to be significantly correlated with Pc5 ULF geomagnetic pulsation. This Pc5 ULF magnetic pulsation behaviour in solar winds and geomagnetic storms establishes the possibility of using Pc5 to predict earthquakes.

ГЕОМАГНИТНЫЕ ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ КАК ФАКТОР РИСКА РАЗВИТИЯ ОКИСЛИТЕЛЬНОГО СТРЕССА В ЭРИТРОЦИТАХ КРОВИ ЧЕЛОВЕКА

At present impacts exerted by heliogeophysic factors on different living organisms are being examined more and more intensely. Over the last decade, it has been detected that meteorological factors play an important role in formation of adap- tation mechanisms in living systems. Sun and earth interaction is also known to directly influence rheological properties of human blood, both in a healthy body and in case there are chronic non-communicable diseases. Given that, impacts exerted by “cosmic weather” on living organisms, people in particular, are a stimulus to perform profound studies on reactions oc- curring as a response to effects produced by solar and geomagnetic activity, first of all, solar flares and magnetic storms. At present the most widely used approach to determining influences exerted by the Earth magnetic field on biologi- cal systems involves searching for correlations between different parameters of living organisms functioning and geo- magnetic indexes. Our research goal was to assess dependence between enzymatic activity of antioxidant protection system, exemplified by superoxide dismutase (SOD) and catalase, and geomagnetic field disturbances. The research focused on examining blood samples taken from conditionally healthy volunteers living in Nizhniy Nov- gorod region. SOD and catalase activity were determined in blood erythrocytes with spectrophotometry. Geomagnetic dis- turbances force was determined as per planetary Kp-index value. The research established a statistically significant correlation between SOD and catalase activity and a value of geo- magnetic field disturbance; this correlation allows making an indirect assumption that geomagnetic conditions directly in- fluence superoxide radical production in a body. Therefore, a change in superoxide radical production is a way for the geomagnetic field to influence living organisms. Activation of free radical oxidation can make for both occurrence and more intense clinical course of several diseases (espe- cially cardiovascular and neuropsychic ones). So, in future it is advisable to assess reactivity of antioxidant protection sys- tem as a response to geomagnetic fluctuations in case there are pathologic changes in a body.

GEOMAGNETIC CHANGES AS A RISK FACTOR CAUSING OXIDATIVE STRESS IN HUMAN ERYTHROCYTES

At present impacts exerted by heliogeophysic factors on different living organisms are being examined more and more intensely. Over the last decade, it has been detected that meteorological factors play an important role in formation of adap- tation mechanisms in living systems. Sun and earth interaction is also known to directly influence rheological properties of human blood, both in a healthy body and in case there are chronic non-communicable diseases. Given that, impacts exerted by “cosmic weather” on living organisms, people in particular, are a stimulus to perform profound studies on reactions oc- curring as a response to effects produced by solar and geomagnetic activity, first of all, solar flares and magnetic storms. At present the most widely used approach to determining influences exerted by the Earth magnetic field on biologi- cal systems involves searching for correlations between different parameters of living organisms functioning and geo- magnetic indexes. Our research goal was to assess dependence between enzymatic activity of antioxidant protection system, exemplified by superoxide dismutase (SOD) and catalase, and geomagnetic field disturbances. The research focused on examining blood samples taken from conditionally healthy volunteers living in Nizhniy Nov- gorod region. SOD and catalase activity were determined in blood erythrocytes with spectrophotometry. Geomagnetic dis- turbances force was determined as per planetary Kp-index value. The research established a statistically significant correlation between SOD and catalase activity and a value of geo- magnetic field disturbance; this correlation allows making an indirect assumption that geomagnetic conditions directly in- fluence superoxide radical production in a body. Therefore, a change in superoxide radical production is a way for the geomagnetic field to influence living organisms. Activation of free radical oxidation can make for both occurrence and more intense clinical course of several diseases (espe- cially cardiovascular and neuropsychic ones). So, in future it is advisable to assess reactivity of antioxidant protection sys- tem as a response to geomagnetic fluctuations in case there are pathologic changes in a body.