Geological Survey Stream-gaging Stations Research Articles

Evaluation of the capability of the Lombard test in detecting abrupt changes in variance

Summary Hydrologic time series are often characterized by temporal changes that give rise to non-stationarity. When the distribution describing the data changes over time, it is important to detect these changes so that correct inferences can be drawn from the data. The Lombard test, a non-parametric rank-based test to detect change points in the moments of a time series, has been recently used in the hydrologic literature to detect change points in the mean and variance. Little is known, however, about the performance of this test in detecting changes in variance, despite the potentially large impacts that these changes (shifts) could have when dealing with extremes. Here we address this issue in a Monte Carlo simulation framework. We consider a number of different situations that can manifest themselves in hydrologic time series, including the dependence of the results on the magnitude of the shift, significance level, sample size and location of the change point within the series. Analyses are performed considering abrupt changes in variance occurring with and without shifts in the mean. The results show that the power of the test in detecting change points in variance is small when the changes are small. It is large when the change point occurs close to the middle of the time series, and it increases nonlinearly with increasing sample size. Moreover, the power of the test is greatly reduced by the presence of change points in mean. We propose removing the change in the mean before testing for change points in variance. Simulation results demonstrate that this strategy effectively increases the power of the test. Finally, the Lombard test is applied to annual peak discharge records from 3686 U.S. Geological Survey stream-gaging stations across the conterminous United States, and the results are discussed in light of the insights from the simulations’ results.

Urbanization and Climate Change: An Examination of Nonstationarities in Urban Flooding

Abstract The authors examine the hydroclimatology, hydrometeorology, and hydrology of flooding in the Milwaukee metropolitan region of the upper midwestern United States. The objectives of this study are 1) to assess nonstationarities in flood frequency associated with urban transformation of land surface properties and climate change and 2) to examine how spatial heterogeneity in land surface properties and heavy rainfall climatology interact to determine floods in urbanizing areas. The authors focus on the Menomonee River basin, which drains much of the urban core of Milwaukee, and the adjacent Cedar Creek basin, where agricultural land use dominates. Results are based on analyses of bias-corrected, high-resolution (1-km2 spatial resolution and 15-min time resolution) radar rainfall fields that are developed using the Hydro-NEXRAD system, rainfall observations from a network of 21 rain gauges in the Milwaukee metropolitan region, and discharge observations from 11 U.S. Geological Survey stream gauging stations. Both annual flood peak magnitudes and annual peaks over threshold flood counts have increased for the Menomonee River basin during the past five decades, and these trends are accompanied by a transition of flood events dominated by snowmelt (March–April floods) to a regime in which warm season thunderstorms are the dominant flood-producing agents. The frequency of heavy rainfall events has increased significantly. The spatial distribution of rainfall for flood-producing storms in the Milwaukee study region exhibits striking spatial heterogeneity, with a maximum in the central portion of the Menomonee River basin. Storm event hydrologic response is determined by the interactions of spatial patterns of urbanization and rainfall distribution in the Menomonee River basin.

Extreme Flood Response: The June 2008 Flooding in Iowa

Abstract The authors examine the hydroclimatology, hydrometeorology, and hydrology of extreme floods through analyses that center on the June 2008 flooding in Iowa. The most striking feature of the June 2008 flooding was the flood peak of the Cedar River at Cedar Rapids (3964 m3 s−1), which was almost twice the previous maximum from a record of 110 years. The spatial extent of extreme flooding was exceptional, with more U.S. Geological Survey stream gauging stations reporting record flood peaks than in any other year. The 2008 flooding was produced by a sequence of organized thunderstorm systems over a period of two weeks. The authors examine clustering and seasonality of flooding in the Iowa study region and link these properties to features of the June 2008 flood event. They examine the environment of heavy rainfall in Iowa during June 2008 through analyses of composite rainfall fields (15-min time interval and 1-km spatial resolution) developed with the Hydro-NEXRAD system and simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). Water balance analyses of extreme flood response, based on rainfall and discharge observations from basins with extreme flooding, suggest that antecedent soil moisture plays a diminishing role in flood response as the return interval increases. Rainfall structure and evolution play a critical and poorly understood role in determining the scaling of flood response. As in other extreme flood studies, analyses of the Iowa flood data suggest that measurement errors can be significant for record discharge estimates.

MACROINVERTEBRATE COMMUNITY CONDITION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEVERITY OF STREAMFLOW ALTERATION

ABSTRACTNatural streamflows play a critical role in stream ecosystems, yet quantitative relations between streamflow alteration and stream health have been elusive. One reason for this difficulty is that neither streamflow alteration nor ecological responses are measured relative to their natural expectations. We assessed macroinvertebrate community condition in 25 mountain streams representing a large gradient of streamflow alteration, which we quantified as the departure of observed flows from natural expectations. Observed flows were obtained from US Geological Survey streamgaging stations and discharge records from dams and diversion structures. During low‐flow conditions in September, samples of macroinvertebrate communities were collected at each site, in addition to measures of physical habitat, water chemistry and organic matter. In general, streamflows were artificially high during summer and artificially low throughout the rest of the year. Biological condition, as measured by richness of sensitive taxa (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera) and taxonomic completeness (O/E), was strongly and negatively related to the severity of depleted flows in winter. Analyses of macroinvertebrate traits suggest that taxa losses may have been caused by thermal modification associated with streamflow alteration. Our study yielded quantitative relations between the severity of streamflow alteration and the degree of biological impairment and suggests that water management that reduces streamflows during winter months is likely to have negative effects on downstream benthic communities in Utah mountain streams. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Spatial distribution of the largest rainfall‐runoff floods from basins between 2.6 and 26,000 km2 in the United States and Puerto Rico

We assess the spatial distribution of the largest rainfall‐generated streamflows from a database of 35,663 flow records composed of the largest 10% of annual peak flows from each of 14,815 U.S. Geological Survey stream gaging stations in the United States and Puerto Rico. High unit discharges (peak discharge per unit contributing area) from basins with areas of 2.6 to 26,000 km2 (1–10,000 mi2) are widespread, but streams in Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and Texas together account for more than 50% of the highest unit discharges. The Appalachians and western flanks of Pacific coastal mountain systems are also regions of high unit discharges, as are several areas in the southern Midwest. By contrast, few exceptional discharges have been recorded in the interior West, northern Midwest, and Atlantic Coastal Plain. Most areas of high unit discharges result from the combination of (1) regional atmospheric conditions that produce large precipitation volumes and (2) steep topography, which enhances precipitation by convective and orographic processes and allows flow to be quickly concentrated into stream channels. Within the conterminous United States, the greatest concentration of exceptional unit discharges is at the Balcones Escarpment of central Texas, where maximum U.S. rainfall amounts apparently coincide with appropriate basin physiography to produce many of the largest measured U.S. floods. Flood‐related fatalities broadly correspond to the spatial distribution of high unit discharges, with Texas having nearly twice the average annual flood‐related fatalities of any other state.

Stream temperature‐equilibrium temperature relationship

Equilibrium temperature is the water temperature at which the sum of all heat fluxes through the water surface is zero. It can be calculated from weather data. Mean weekly stream temperature was found to be linearly related to mean weekly equilibrium temperature above 0°C. The slopes and intercepts of the linear relationship were used to identify effects of shading, sheltering, cold water inputs (groundwater, meltwater, and deep reservoir releases) and warm water inputs (wastewater, cooling water, and lake surface water). The linearity hypothesis was confirmed for data from 596 U.S. Geological Survey stream gaging stations in the eastern and central United States. For approximately 15% (89 of 596, NSC ≥ 0.90) of stream gaging stations, weekly equilibrium temperature was a good estimator of weekly stream temperature with zero wind sheltering and sun shading. With sheltering and shading the number rose to 26% (156 of 596). For these streams the heat exchange through the water surface has the most controlling effect on stream temperatures. For the remaining 74% of streams the relationship between weekly stream temperature and weekly equilibrium temperature was also linear, but its slope was significantly less than 1.0 (even after calibration for shading and sheltering), indicating that processes other than surface heat exchange have an influence. Cold water inflows were dominant for 8% (46 of 596) of stream gaging sites. Less than 5% of all stream gaging stations showed evidence of unnatural heat inputs. Fitting an equilibrium temperature linearly to recorded stream temperatures, e.g., at a weekly timescale, can be of use to project stream temperatures under different weather‐climate scenarios or to identify both natural and anthropogenic heat and hydrologic inputs to streams.

Real-time water quality monitoring and regression analysis to estimate nutrient and bacteria concentrations in Kansas streams

An innovative approach currently is underway in Kansas to estimate and monitor constituent concentrations in streams. Continuous in-stream water-quality monitors are installed at selected U.S. Geological Survey stream-gaging stations to provide real-time measurement of specific conductance, pH, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, and total chlorophyll. In addition, periodic water samples are collected manually and analyzed for nutrients, bacteria, and other constituents of concern. Regression equations then are developed from measurements made by the water-quality monitors and analytical results of manually collected samples. These regression equations are used to estimate nutrient, bacteria, and other constituent concentrations. Concentrations then are available to calculate loads and yields to further assess water quality in watersheds. The continuous and real-time nature of the data may be important when considering recreational use of a water body; developing and monitoring total maximum daily loads; adjusting water-treatment strategies; and determining high constituent concentrations in time to prevent adverse effects on fish or other aquatic life.