Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression Research Articles

Urban expansion in Greater Irbid Municipality, Jordan: the spatial patterns and the driving factors

Urban expansion within Greater Irbid Municipality (GIM) witnessed an extraordinary rise, expanding approximately ninefold between 1967 and 2020. Recent trends revealed a shift in urban growth towards southern and eastern regions. These dynamics carry critical implications for urban planners and environmental managers, urging a comprehensive understanding of the driving factors behind this expansion to anticipate future challenges. Employing logistic regression (LR) and geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) analyses using remote sensing data and GIS, spatially variant coefficients for driving factors emerged, illuminating the evolving landscape of urban development drivers within GIM. Yarmouk University historically promoted urban expansion, but recent proximity to Yarmouk University and JUST University, coupled with higher existing building percentages, inhibited further urbanization. The analysis also revealed that elevation and slope had negligible impacts on urban expansion. These findings underline the evolving dynamics of urban development drivers within the study region. The local perspective depicted significant spatial disparities in coefficients, highlighting variations in magnitude and direction. GWLR emerged as a more robust methodology, effectively capturing regional variations and enhancing model reliability. These findings hold immense value for informing current and future urban planning practices in Greater Irbid Municipality. Proactively addressing identified challenges and understanding the intricate dynamics of urban expansion can assist Irbid in shaping a sustainable and resilient future, avoiding potential pitfalls in its urban development endeavors.

IMPLEMENTASI GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED LOGISTIC REGRESSION PADA LAJU PERTUMBUHAN PENDUDUK DI BOJONEGORO

Population Growth Rate is the rate at which influencing factors increase and decrease population size. The development of large populations in regional governments causes uncontrolled population growth rates. The population growth rate in Bojonegoro Regency from 2019 to 2020 experienced a significant increase of 0.96%. The increase in population has an impact on the emergence of various problems in the economic and social fields. This problem requires effective and comprehensive spatial modeling, namely Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR) with Fixed Gaussian and Adaptive Gaussian weighting. GWLR modeling aims to determine the implementation of knowledge and insight into the factors that influence the rate of population growth in each area of ​​Bojonegoro District. based on the results of GWLR modeling with the Akaike Index Criteria (AIC) on the Fixed Gaussian kernel function of 33.91. This value identifies that the population growth rate modeling in each sub-district has different values. This difference can be seen from 6 sub-districts which are significantly influenced by the number of births and 5 sub-districts are significantly influenced by the number of couples of childbearing age who participate in family planning. The results of modeling predictions (GWLR) in Bojonegoro Regency show that 11 sub-districts have low growth rate categories while 17 sub-districts have high population growth rate values

DETERMINING STUDENT GRADUATION BASED ON SCHOOL LOCATION USING GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED LOGISTIC REGRESSION

Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences (FMIPA) is one of the Faculties in Tanjungpura University with 9 Undergraduate Programs (S1). Based on the graduation data of the 2014 batch of FMIPA students, the number of students who did not complete their studies was 131 students or 29% of the total 445 students and 187 schools in Indonesia. If the study period of students can be predicted early, the study program can provide advice or recommendations so that students can complete their studies in/exactly 8 semesters. This study aims to determine the model for analyzing the factors that influence the graduation of FMIPA students using GWLR. Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR) is a developing logistic regression model applied to spatial data. This model is used to predict data with binary dependent variables that consider the location characteristics of each observation. The units of observation in this study are the school location of 455 students spread across Indonesia. The variables used in this study were sourced from the Academic and Student Affairs Bureau UNTAN and divided into dependent variables (Y) and independent variables (X), i.e. Gender, college selection, Accreditation, School Type, School Location, and Name of Study Program. The dependent variable analyzed is the graduated status of FMIPA UNTAN students, i.e. completed and not completed their studies. The results showed that gender and the name of the study program are factors that affect the graduation of FMIPA UNTAN 2014 students with a classification accuracy of 72.6%.

Study on the Regeneration Probability of Understory Coniferous Saplings in the Liangshui Nature Reserve Based on Four Modeling Techniques

Forests are one of the most important natural resources for humans, and understanding the regeneration probability of undergrowth in forests is very important for future forest spatial structure and forest management. In addition, the regeneration of understory saplings is a key process in the restoration of forest ecosystems. By studying the probability of sapling regeneration in forests, we can understand the impact of different stand factors and environmental factors on sapling regeneration. This could help provide a scientific basis for the restoration and protection of forest ecosystems. The Liangshui Nature Reserve of Yichun City, Heilongjiang Province, is a coniferous and broadleaved mixed forest. In this study, we assess the regeneration probability of coniferous saplings (CRP) in natural forests in 665 temporary plots in the Liangshui Nature Reserve. Using Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 images provided by the European Space Agency, as well as digital elevation model (DEM) data, we calculated the vegetation index, microwave vegetation index (RVI S1), VV, VH, texture features, slope, and DEM and combined them with field survey data to construct a logistic regression (LR) model, geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) model, random forest (RF) model, and multilayer perceptron (MLP) model to predict and analyze the CRP value of each pixel in the study area. The accuracy of the models was evaluated with the average values of the area under the ROC curve (AUC), kappa coefficient (KAPPA), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) verified by five-fold cross-validation. The results showed that the RF model had the highest accuracy. The variable factor with the greatest impact on CRP was the DEM. The construction of the GWLR model considered more spatial factors and had a lower residual Moran index value. The four models had higher CRP prediction results in the low-latitude and low-longitude regions of the study area, and in the high-latitude and high-longitude regions of the study area, most pixels had a CRP value of 0 (i.e., no coniferous sapling regeneration occurred).

ST-GWLR: combining geographically weighted logistic regression and spatiotemporal hotspot trend analysis to explore the effect of built environment on traffic crash

ABSTRACT Road traffic crashes are becoming thorny issues being faced worldwide. Traffic crashes are spatiotemporal events and the research on the spatiotemporal patterns and variation trends of traffic crashes has been carried out. However, the impact of built environment on traffic crash spatiotemporal trends has not received much attention. Moreover, the spatial non-stationarity between the variation trends of traffic crashes and their influencing factors is usually neglected. To make up for the lack of analysis of built environment factors influencing spatiotemporal hotspot trends in traffic crashes, this paper proposed a method of “ST-GWLR” for analyzing the influence of built environment factors on spatiotemporal hotspot trends of traffic crashes by combining the spatiotemporal hotspot trend analysis and Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR) modeling methods. Firstly, the traffic crash spatiotemporal hotspot trends were explored using the space-time cube model, hotspot analysis, and Mann-Kendall trend test. Then, the GWLR was introduced to capture the spatial non-stationarity neglected by the classic Global Logistic Regression (GLR) model, to improve the accuracy of the model estimation. GWLR model is used for the first time to analyze the significant local correlation between the traffic crash spatiotemporal hotspot trends and the built environment factors, to accurately and effectively identify the built environment factors that have significant influences on the hotspot trends of traffic crashes. The performance of the GWLR models and GLR models was examined and compared sufficiently. The results showed that the proposed ST-GWLR, which captured spatial non-stationarity, performed better than the classic GLR combined with spatiotemporal analysis, and improved the prediction accuracy of the models by 14.9%, 13.9%, and 15.1%, respectively. There were significant local correlations between intensifying hotspots and persistent hotspots of traffic crashes and the built environment factors. The findings of this paper have positive implications for traffic safety management and urban built environment planning.

A COMPARISON OF LOGISTIC REGRESSION AND GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED LOGISTIC REGRESSION (GWLR) ON COVID-19 DATA IN WEST SUMATRA

An understanding of factors that affect the recovery time from a disease is important for the community, medical staff, and also the government. This research analyzed factors that affect the recovery time of Covid-19 sufferers in West Sumatra. In addition, the consumption of a herbal made from Sungkai leaves, which is believed by some people in West Sumatra to accelerate the healing from Covid-19, was also included in the analysis. The recovery time here was categorized into two classes (binary): 1 for within 2 weeks, and 0 for more than 2 weeks. The methods used were logistic regression and geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR). GWLR provides estimates of parameters for each location. The data used in this study is Covid-19 data of 2021 taken from the Regional Research and Development Agency (Litbangda) of West Sumatra with a total of 764 observations collected from 19 regencies/cities in West Sumatra. The results showed that there was no difference between the logistic regression model and the GWLR models based on the values of AIC and the ratio of deviance and degrees of freedom (df). The addition of spatial factors through GWLR models did not provide additional information regarding the recovery of Covid-19 sufferers within 2 weeks or more than 2 weeks. The logistic regression model gives the result that, at significance level α = 10%, residence, vaccination status, and symptoms significantly affect the recovery time within 2 weeks or more for Covid-19 sufferers, while other variables, namely sex, age, Sungkai leaves consumption status, and ginger consumption status have no significant effects.

Using geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) for pedestrian crash severity modeling: Exploring spatially varying relationships with natural and built environment factors

Although a large number of studies have tried to explore the relationship between built environment and pedestrian crash severity in developed countries, there is a lack of similar studies in the context of developing countries. Methodologically, the contributory factors influencing pedestrian crash severity are commonly identified through global logistic regression (GLR) models. However, these models are unable to capture the spatial variation in the relationships between the dependent and independent variables. The local logistic regression model, such as geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR), can potentially overcome this issue. The application of local logistic regression to model pedestrian crash severity is absent in the literature. Therefore, this study aimed to apply the GWLR technique to explore spatially heterogeneous relationships between natural and built environment-related factors and pedestrian crash severity in Dhaka, the capital city of a developing country: Bangladesh. First, using secondary pedestrian crash data, a GLR model was developed to identify significant contributory factors influencing pedestrian crash severity. Results of the model showed that the probability of fatal pedestrian crash occurrence increased at night, in unlit locations, and during adverse weather conditions. In addition, the likelihood of a fatal crash decreases when medians exist on roads and around institutional land use. Also, the chance of fatal crashes increased on straight and flat roads and at locations with more bus stops. Finally, this study explored spatial variation in the effect intensity of these significant variables across the study area using the GWLR technique. High intensity variation across the study area was found for road geometry and institutional land use factors. On the other hand, low intensity variation was found for light conditions and the presence of median factors. This technique can be applied in any area, and the results would help provide insights into the spatial dimension of traffic safety.

Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Menjelaskan Kasus AIDS Provinsi Jawa Timur Menggunakan Model Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR)

AIDS is the most chronic phase of HIV infection which can weaken the immune system. In 2020, East Java Province is a province which has the most HIV infections and in the third place for the highest total number of AIDS cases in Indonesia. The purpose of this research is to build a model using Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR), and to work out the grouping results of regencies/cities using K-means Clustering Analysis. The variables used in this research are Gini Ratio, L Index of Per Capita Expenditure, Gender Ratio, Dependency Ratio, Gender Development Index, and The Number of Pos Pelayanan KB Desa. The proportion levels of AIDS cases are categorized into 2 categories based on cut-point which has been specified, which 0 as the category of low level with the proportion of AIDS cases is less than 0.0006 and 1 as the category of high level with the proportion of AIDS cases is more than or equal to 0.0006. Parameter estimation for GWLR is using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method with Fixed Gaussian as weighted kernel function and optimum bandwidth is determined using Akaike's Information Criterion Corrected (AICc). Z-Score of the most suitable model will be grouped using K-means Clustering Analysis, with Z-score is parameter estimator divided by standard error. Grouping results indicates cluster 1 members tend to be regencies/cities that have gender ratio and dependency ratio as significant variables, meanwhile cluster 2 members tend to be regencies/cities that have only dependency ratio as significant variable.

Geographical specific association between lifestyles and multimorbidity among adults in China.

The relationship between lifestyles and multimorbidity is well established, but previous studies have often neglected the role of spatial heterogeneity. Thus, this study is the first to explore this association in Chinese adults from a spatial perspective using a geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) model and describe the geographical characteristics across different regions. According to 2018 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) database, a total of 7101 subjects were finally included, with 124 prefecture-level administrative regions in China. Non-spatial and GWLR model were used for analysis, and gender stratification analysis was also performed. Data were visualized through ArcGIS 10.7. The results showed that a total prevalence of approximately 5.13% of multimorbidity, and among participants with multimorbidity, the separate prevalence of hypertension, diabetes or high blood sugar, heart disease, and stroke were 4.45%, 2.32%, 3.02%, and 1.41%, respectively. The GWLR model indicated that current (OR: 1.202-1.220) and former smokers (OR: 1.168-1.206) may be important risk factors for multimorbidity in adults, especially in north and west among male. Past drinkers (OR: 1.233-1.240), especially in eastern China, contribute to the development of the multimorbidity in men but not in women. Vigorous-intensity activities (OR: 0.761-0.799) were negatively associated with multimorbidity in the west, with no gender difference. Depression (OR: 1.266-1.293) appeared to increase the risk for multimorbidity, with the weakest effects in central China and no gender difference. There was an interaction between light activities and gender (P = 0.024). The prevalence of multimorbidity differed across various areas of the province. The role of geographical variations in lifestyles and multimorbidity may provide valuable information for developing site-specific intervention strategies.

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Population Growth Rate in West Sumatra Using Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression

The model of Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR) was the development of a model of logistic regression that was implemented to data in spatial. GWLR model parameter estimation was carried out at each location for observation using spatial weighting. The research purposes was to reveal the GWLR model on the dichotomous data of the Population Growth Rate (PGR) indicator in each Districts/Cities in West Sumatra in 2020 and learn more factors that influence the probability that the population growth rate will increase in 19 Districts/Cities in West Sumatra in 2020. The parameters estimation of the GWLR model uses the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method. Spatial weighting for parameter estimation is determined using the Fixed Gaussian Kernel weighting function and determining the optimal bandwidth using Akaike's Information Citerion (AIC) criteria. The variable of response that is categorical in this study is the rate of population growth in each districts/cities in West Sumatra in 2020 and the predictor variables are the couples number of childbearing age, the live births number, the in-migration number, and the out-migration number. The reseacrh result obtained from research were that the GWLR model is better than the logistic regression model and 4 groups of Districts/Cities are formed based on factors that affect the increase in population growth rate.

Local variations of landslide factors in Pulau Pinang, Malaysia

A landslide is one of the most notorious natural disasters, resulting in massive losses and significant damages. Thus, this paper aims to analyze the spatial heterogeneity of the influencing factors which later inspect the relationship between the factors and landslide occurrences. A total of 988 landslides historical data and eight landslide factors were obtained from proper field validation and maps provided by those concerned in the government, including distance to roads, distance to rivers, distance to faults, slope angle, curvature, slope aspect, land use, and lithology. Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR) is introduced in this paper to carry out the local analysis, resulting in the slope angle and the slope aspect playing the most significant role in influencing landslides. The Akaike’s information criterion (AICc) of GWLR is 824.51 which has a lower value than the global regression represented as 906.09 revealing that GWLR is the best model. Other evaluation criteria such as deviance, local percent deviance explained (pdev), and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) also validate the significance of the GWLR model. The GWLR results show the degree of spatial variation in the relationship between landslides and the influencing factors in the study area as the coefficient values of every factor are inconsistent, providing a reference for managers to formulate targeted decision-making measures. In the meantime, urgent action to sustain this natural disaster as suggested in the SDG 13 has to be taken earnestly to avoid bigger impacts on both society and the environment.

Landslide susceptibility mapping using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) models in the Río Aguas catchment (Almería, SE Spain)

A landslide susceptibility analysis has been made in the Río Aguas catchment (Almeria, Southeast Spain), using two statistical models, Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) and Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR). For this purpose, a previous landslide inventory has been used and re-elaborated, reaching a total incidence of 2.58% of the whole area. Different types of movements have been distinguished, being rock falls, slides and complex movements the predominant. From the inventory, the centroid of the rupture zone has been extracted to represent the landslides introduced in the models. A previous factor analysis has been made, using 12 predictors related to morphometry, hydrography, geology and land cover, with 5 m grid spacing, allowing the selection of factors to be used in the analysis and discarding those showing correlation between them. Then, MaxEnt and GWLR models are applied using different distributions of training and testing samples from the landslide inventory. For the validation, the Area Under the Curve of the Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUC-ROC) has been used but additionally, the degree of fit (DF) has allowed to validate the rupture zones themselves, not only the centroids. Results show an excellent prediction with both metrics in all the methods and samples, but the better results are obtained in the GWLR method for AUC and in the MaxEnt for the degree of fit. Therefore, a consensus model of both methods has been obtained, that improves even more the results reaching an AUC value of 0.99 and a degree of fit of 90%.

Spatial Analysis on the Variances of Landslide Factors Using Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression in Penang Island, Malaysia

Landslides are one of the common natural disasters involving mostly movement of soil surfaces associated with gravitational attraction. Their adverse losses and significant damage, which always result in at least 17% of casualties and billions of dollars of financial losses worldwide, have made landslides the third most notorious phenomenon devastating many parts of the world. Malaysia has had multiple landslide occurrences, particularly in highly urbanized areas, such as Penang Island, owing to the declining vegetation cover in hilly terrains. Thus, this study aims to delineate the spatial relationship variances between landslide occurrences and the influencing factors in the area of interest. Ten influencing factors considered, including distance to roads, distance to rivers, distance to faults, slope angle, slope aspect, curvature, rainfall annual average, lithology, soil series, and land use. In this study, we use a software (GWR 4.0) as a medium for the analysis processing, coupled with GIS. A local statistical technique, Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR), is primacy in capturing the geographical variation of the model coefficients that considers non-stationary variables and models their relationships, as well as processes regression coefficients over space. Goodness-of-fit criteria were used to evaluate the GWLR model, namely AICc that decrease from 872.202167 to 800.856998. Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) shows a decrease in value from 925.784185 to 945.196942. Likewise, deviance decreased from 849.931675 to 739.175630, while pdev increased from 0.379457 to 0.460321. These goodness-of-fit criteria values express GWLR as the best model for local measure. The variances in both local parameter estimates and the t-values (negative and positive values) show the level of significance for each landslide factor in influencing landslide occurrences across the study area. The results of the local parameter estimates and the t-values also show that the slope angle and the slope aspect spatially affect landslide occurrences across the study area. Therefore, a proper perspective and a thorough understanding of the certain slope condition must be established for future mitigation actions to support the agenda of SDG 15, which promotes resilience and disaster risk reduction.

A hybrid modeling approach considering spatial heterogeneity and nonlinearity to discover the transition rules of urban cellular automata models

Urban sprawl is a typical geographic dynamic process with spatial heterogeneity and nonlinearity. However, current studies usually focus on only one of them to extract urban sprawl mechanisms and build cellular automata (CA) models. In the current work, the urban CA transition rules are derived by a geographically weighted artificial neural network (GWANN), which can discover the driving mechanism of urban sprawl by considering both spatial heterogeneity and nonlinearity. Taking the urban sprawl of Wuhan and Beijing during 2000–2020 as examples, the advantages of GWANN in deriving transition rules are investigated by comparing it with logistic regression (LR), geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR), and artificial neural network (ANN). Furthermore, the simulation performance of CA models based on LR, GWLR, ANN, and GWANN is compared and analyzed from the aspects of global and regional simulation accuracy and the morphology of simulated urban patches. The results show that GWANN has better fitting and simulation performance, indicating the validity and necessity of coupling spatial heterogeneity and nonlinearity to establish transition rules. This study is a novel exploration that contributes to deriving CA transition rules through a hybrid modeling approach that couples statistical models with learning models.

Evaluation of geographically weighted logistic model and mixed effect model in forest fire prediction in northeast China

IntroductionForest fires seriously threaten the safety of forest resources and human beings. Establishing an accurate forest fire forecasting model is crucial for forest fire management.MethodsWe used different meteorological and vegetation factors as predictors to construct forest fire prediction models for different fire prevention periods in Heilongjiang Province in northeast China. The logistic regression (LR) model, mixed-effect logistic (mixed LR) model, and geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) model were developed and evaluated respectively.ResultsThe results showed that (1) the validation accuracies of the LR model were 77.25 and 81.76% in spring and autumn fire prevention periods, respectively. Compared with the LR model, both the mixed LR and GWLR models had significantly improved the fit and validated results, and the GWLR model performed best with an increase of 6.27 and 10.98%, respectively. (2) The three models were ranked as LR model < mixed LR model < GWLR model in predicting forest fire occurrence of Heilongjiang Province. The medium-and high-risk areas of forest fire predicted by the GWLR model were distributed in western and eastern parts of Heilongjiang Province in spring, and western part in autumn, which was consistent with the observed data. (3) Driving factors had strong temporal and spatial heterogeneities; different factors had different effects on forest fire occurrence in different time periods. The relationship between driving factors and forest fire occurrence varied from positive to negative correlations, whether it’s spring or autumn fire prevention period.DiscussionThe GWLR model has advantages in explaining the spatial variation of different factors and can provide more reliable forest fire predictions.

Predictive model of spatial scale of forest fire driving factors: a case study of Yunnan Province, China

Forest fires are among the major natural disasters that destroy the balance of forest ecosystems. The construction of a forest fire prediction model to investigate the driving mechanism of fire drivers on forest fires can help reveal the mechanism of forest fire occurrence and its risk, and thus contribute to the prevention and control of forest fires. However, previous studies on the mechanisms of forest fire drivers have not considered the effect of differences in spatial scale of action of forest fire drivers on the predicted effect. Therefore, the present study proposes a spatial prediction model of forest fires that considers the spatial scale effect of forest fire drivers to predict forest fire risk. First, based on historical forest fire data and geographic environmental data in the Yunnan Province, geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) was used to determine the forest fire drivers and to estimate the probability of forest fire occurrence at locations where fire observations are absent. Then, multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) was used to explore the spatial scales of action of different drivers on forest fires. The results show that meteorological factors such as relative humidity, air temperature, air pressure, sunshine hours, daily precipitation, wind speed, topographic factors such as elevation, slope, and aspect, anthropogenic factors such as population density and road network, as well as vegetation type, were significantly correlated with forest fires; thus, they are identified as important factors influencing occurrence of forest fires in the Yunnan Province. The MGWR model regression results show that the role of different forest fire drivers on forest fire occurrence has spatial scale differences. The spatial scale of drivers such as altitude, aspect, wind speed, temperature, slope, and distance from the road to the fire point was larger and their spatial influence was relatively stable, with spatial heterogeneity having less influence on the model evaluation results. The spatial scale of drivers such as relative humidity, sunshine, air pressure, precipitation, population density, and vegetation type were smaller, and spatial heterogeneity had a more obvious influence on the model evaluation results. This study provides a reference for selecting drivers and evaluating their spatial scale effects to construct predictive regional forest fire models.

Evaluating the Spatial Risk of Bacterial Foodborne Diseases Using Vulnerability Assessment and Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression

Foodborne diseases are an increasing concern to public health; climate and socioeconomic factors influence bacterial foodborne disease outbreaks. We developed an “exposure–sensitivity–adaptability” vulnerability assessment framework to explore the spatial characteristics of multiple climatic and socioeconomic environments, and analyzed the risk of foodborne disease outbreaks in different vulnerable environments of Zhejiang Province, China. Global logistic regression (GLR) and geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) models were combined to quantify the influence of selected variables on regional bacterial foodborne diseases and evaluate the potential risk. GLR results suggested that temperature, total precipitation, road density, construction area proportions, and gross domestic product (GDP) were positively correlated with foodborne diseases. GWLR results indicated that the strength and significance of these relationships varied locally, and the predicted risk map revealed that the risk of foodborne diseases caused by Vibrio parahaemolyticus was higher in urban areas (60.6%) than rural areas (20.1%). Finally, distance from the coastline was negatively correlated with predicted regional risks. This study provides a spatial perspective for the relevant departments to prevent and control foodborne diseases.

The Comparison of Kernel Weighting Functions in Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression in Modeling Poverty in Indonesia

Indonesia is a developing country that is facing poverty. The percentage of the poor population in Indonesia in 2020 increased by 0.97 percent from 2019. A suitable analysis to overcome poverty in Indonesia is the regional effect, namely Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR). This study aimed to compare the weighting functions of the Fixed Gaussian Kernel, Fixed Tricube Kernel, and Fixed Bisquare Kernel in the GWLR model in modeling poverty in Indonesia in 2020. The best model can determine significant factors that affected poverty in Indonesia in 2020. This study used the percentage data of poor population and the factors affecting it, namely the Open Unemployment Rate , Human Development Index , and Total Population in 34 Provinces in Indonesia. This study indicates that the GWLR model with the Fixed Gaussian Kernel weighting function is the best in modeling poverty in Indonesia in 2020 based on the smallest Akaike Information Criterion Corrected (AlCc) value. The GWLR model with the Fixed Gaussian Kernel weighting function shows the Open Unemployment Rate as a significant factor affecting poverty in Indonesia in 2020 in 10 provinces in Indonesia, namely Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Riau, Jambi, South Sumatra, Bengkulu, Lampung, DKI Jakarta, and Banten.

Pemodelan Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression dengan Fungsi Adaptive Gaussian Kernel Terhadap Kemiskinan di Provinsi NTT

The Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR) model is a logistic regression model development that is applied to spatial data from non-stationary processes. This model is used to predict a model of the data set that has a binary response variable which takes into account the spatial factor. This study will discuss the use of the GWLR model using the adaptive weighting function of the Gaussian kernel in a poverty case study in East Nusa Tenggara Province in 2019.The parameter estimation of the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method by giving different weights for each observation location. The weight used is the adaptive Gaussian kernel with the optimum bandwidth selection using the Cross-Validation (CV). Based on the results of testing the parameters of the GWLR model with a weighted adaptive Gaussian kernel, it can be concluded that the factors that influence poverty are local and vary in the 22 observation locations, including GRDP per capita, acceptance of smart Indonesian programs, and projected population growth rates, with a classification accuracy rate of 81,82%.

Precipitation dominants synergies and trade-offs among ecosystem services across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Understanding synergies and trade-offs of ecosystem services (ESs), finding influencing factors related to these ESs, and determining how these factors regulate spatiotemporal patterns are vital to the sustainability of ecosystem management. However, the spatialization of the correlation between the relationships among ESs and the influencing factors has remained a difficult analysis for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Consequently, three ESs are quantified using different models, and synergies and trade-offs among the ESs are analyzed. The precipitation changes, minimum temperature changes, gross domestic product changes, population changes, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) changes, and the digital model (DEM) were selected as influencing factors. The influence of these influencing factors on the relationship among the ESs was then measured using the methods of logistic regression (LR) and the geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR). The authors showed that (1) the spatially concordant high supplies of water yield (WY) and carbon storage (CS) were distributed in the southeastern forest areas and the eastern grassland areas, whereas high meat supply (MS) was primarily distributed in the eastern and the middle of the grassland areas. (2) The relationships between the WY and MS and between the CS and MS were primarily trade-offs, and their area ratios were 40% and 41%, respectively. However, the relationship between the WY and CS was primarily synergistic, and the area ratio was 54%. (3) Precipitation was more highly related to the relationships among the ESs than the other influencing factors among the six independent variables. Compared to the LR, the GWLR model provides an improved calculation to explain the correlation between the relationships among the ESs and these influencing factors. Overall, it was found that these influencing factors on the impacts of the relationship among the ESs were different, and they lacked spatial concordance. These results highlight the importance of managing nearly all areas by specifically controlling local factors.